Twins' infield needs work this winter

Yesterday, Star Tribune columnist Pat Reusse put together his agenda for the Minnesota Twins this off-season. The gist of it focused on not re-signing any of the expensive veterans and channeling that money into areas of need – specifically the pitching staff:

“When the Twins discuss the rotation for 2012, this should be the plan:

No. 1 starter: Yet to be signed/acquired hard-thrower (doesn't pitch to contact); [italics mine] No. 2: Yet to be signed/acquired veteran starter with solid stuff; No. 3: Pavano; No. 4: Liriano; No. 5: Baker, with Swarzak, Blackburn or Slowey to fill in when Baker is on the DL.”

Mr. Reusse’s request is echoed throughout every radio call-in show and blog comment section that touches the subject of what the Twins should do next season (heck, it’s been the same thing repeated since the loss of Johan Santana). While I wholeheartedly agree with the sentiment, the unfortunate truth is that there is likely little opportunity for the Twins to acquire anyone fitting that description.

In terms of free agents, Texas’s CJ Wilson is the top name on the market. The 30-year-old Wilson has emerged the past two years after being a bullpen arm for the Rangers, compiling a 27-13 record with an impressive 3.28 ERA (better when you consider his home environment) and 329 strikeouts in 378.1 innings of work. When you add the fact that Wilson’s workload was light during his younger years (just 280.2 at the major league level between ages 24 and 28), a team would land a pitcher they can be somewhat confident that his arm should hold up the duration of a contract.

Of course, the Twins are not the only team looking for number one types and Wilson will potentially be a hard commodity to reel in. In addition to the Rangers who would want him to stick around, the Yankees, Cardinals, Tigers, Cubs and other spend-happy teams will be at least slightly interested in him. Outside of Wilson, there is not a name on the free agent list that qualifies as what Mr. Reusse described.

The next route -- trading for a number one starter -- is perhaps just as difficult. For argument’s sake, let’s say the Rays decide to shop James Shields. Now the Rays have proven extreme good at extracting top value for their commodities and are better than most teams, however, any team with a number one-type will be getting plenty of offers. The Rays will likely be able to get a significant package for Shields (or any other top pitching talent) and the Twins appear unlikely to assemble a matching deal – at least be able to form one without hurting the system’s long-term viability. So, while there are teams that may be inclined to moving a few good arms, it would cost the Twins dearly when it comes to the already talent-depleted farm system.

Here’s hoping the Twins are able to find a pitcher that fits the bill of a number one starter but if the Twins want to improve their rotation in the short-term, the next best option is to improve their defense. Nowhere is this more needed than in the infield.

Consider this: the Minnesota Twins – once touted as the defensive darlings of the universe – have become the worst team in the AL at turning groundballs into outs.

American League Grounders
Team	Defensive Efficiency Ratio
Mariners	78.5%
Angels	78.5%
Blue Jays	78.3%
Rangers	78.2%
Rays	78.0%
Red Sox	77.3%
Indians	77.2%
Athletics	76.5%
Royals	76.4%
Yankees	76.0%
White Sox	75.9%
Orioles	74.5%
Tigers	74.0%
Twins	73.3%

The Defensive Efficiency Ratio tells us in broad-based terms how many times a team has successfully converted a ball in play into an out. Breaking this down into the trajectory of how a ball is put into play, we can use this to give us some idea of how teams’ outfield or infield units perform. So far in the American League this year, nearly 77% (76.6%) of all grounders have been turned into outs, but the Seattle Mariners and the Los Angeles Angels boast the league’s top slot for keeping ground balls from becoming hits.

Around the horn, the Seattle Mariners’ infield has been fairly stalwart. Their shortstops have managed track and convert 74 plays on balls out of the standard shortstop zone while holding a very good .837 revised zone rating (converting 252 of 301 plays inside a shortstop’s zone) which is third-best in the AL. Meanwhile, Mariner second basemen have made 40 plays out of the normal zone while posting a .827 revised zone rating (5th-best in AL). This – along with some exceptional pitchers in Felix Hernandez and Micheal Pineda – have given the Mariners one of the league’s best ERA’s at 3.77. While King Felix and Prince Pineda were supplying strikeouts, rotation-mate Doug Fister – a groundball pitcher who is far from a strikeout pitcher - posted a 3.33 ERA thanks to his infield backup. Had the Mariners infielders had the slightest bit of lumber to compliment the glovework, they may have wound up competitive in the AL West.

The Angels, while not nearly as rangy as the Mariners infielders, have compiled an infield that does their jobs. The shortstops and second baseman have the third-best revised zone ratings (.843 and .844 respectively) among their peers while the corners demonstrate an above-average ability to make the additional plays out of the zone. The first basemen lead the league with 35 out-of-zone plays while the third basemen are fourth with 32 out-of-zone plays. Perhaps not surprising, at 3.49, the Angels own the AL’s best ERA.

On the opposite end of the spectrum from the Mariners and Angels rest the Minnesota Twins. The Twins are the American League’s worst at turning a groundball into an out. Their 73.3% conversion rate in 2011 represents a significant drop over their 76.1% from a year ago.

The agglomeration of middle infielders has provided little additional support for their pitchers. The shortstops – mainly headlined by Tsuyoshi Nishioka and Alexi Casilla – have done a decent job of nabbing an extra 60 plays out-of-zone. However, that is overshadowed by the way the shortstop unit has performed within their designated zone: their .769 revised zone rating is the worst in the AL. One year ago, with JJ Hardy and Nick Punto manning short, the team had the AL’s best revised zone rating at the position (.839). Nishioka, once thought of to be a defensive upgrade at the position, has demonstrated regularly that he is incapable of holding down a starting job at this time.

At second, the Twins have added 27 out-of-zone outs (second-fewest in AL) with a .802 revised zone rating (fourth-lowest). While Casilla has done a decent job when able to be on the field, there is an obvious drop off in the quality of defense provided when Michael Cuddyer and, to a lesser extent, Luke Hughes is playing. In 2010 the Twins put up good marks at second with veteran Orlando Hudson. That year, the Minnesota second basemen posted a .833 revised zone rating and added another 42 outs that were not in their zone.

Perhaps the most substantial decline has been the defensive production at third. Danny Valencia – given the position full-time – has shown as much range as Gilbert Gottfried in 2011. Valencia and the few fill-ins have chased down just 19 plays out-of-zone this year. Comparatively, the Blue Jays have converted an additional 46 out-of-zone plays. More worrisome, like shortstop, the in-zone plays have dropped from a league-lead .780 in 2010 to .691 this season.

The Twins pitchers are pitch-to-contact. This strategy is not sexy but it can be successful if the necessary support is there – after all, for the majority of the century the team has won division titles based on this. All of this fumbling, bumbling and stumbling in the infield has led to more hits, more base-runners, more pitches and, ultimately, more runs for the Twins pitching staff in 2011. It is not hard to see an association between the infield defense and the staff’s ERA which jumped from 3.95 to 4.48.

Even if the Twins do bring in the marquee-number-one-with-a-bullet starter, they still need to address the defense for the remainder of the rotation. 

600 Naturally

And with two mighty lumberjack swings, Jim Thome sent the white orb whistling through the Detroit night air only to disappear on both occasions over the Tigers’ left field wall.

Those swings marked home runs number 599 and the 600th home runs of his career, placing him in an elite group of individuals – eight to be exact – who have circled the bases over 600 times in their careers. Yes, the modern era with the miniature ballparks, better equipment and other performance enhancers may have removed the sheen somewhat but Thome’s name undoubtedly helps restore some credibility:

Rank	Player (age)	Home Runs	Bats	HR Log
1.	Barry Bonds	762	L	HR Log
2.	Hank Aaron+	755	R	HR Log
3.	Babe Ruth+	714	L	HR Log
4.	Willie Mays+	660	R	HR Log
5.	Ken Griffey	630	L	HR Log
6.	Alex Rodriguez (35)	626	R	HR Log
7.	Sammy Sosa	609	R	HR Log
8.	Jim Thome (40)	600	L	HR Log

(via Baseball-Reference.com)

Thome’s first blast came in an empty Yankee Stadium on October 4, 1991. Just a young whippersnapper of a September call-up, Thome dispatched a shot deep into the third deck in the Bronx. How could those on hand realize that he would continue to mash taters for the next two decades?

Now, twenty seasons and 599 taters later, Thome has reached the incredible milestone. Congratulations Mr Thome.

****

To commemorate his remarkable feat, DiamondCentric has created a limited edition t-shirt that you can purchase at the website – www.DiamondCentric .com. 

The disappointing defense of Tsuyoshi Nishioka

On two separate occasions this month, shortstop Tsuyoshi Nishioka has failed to perform the elementary exercise of covering second base in key situations.

On August 3 in Anaheim, pitcher Brian Duensing fielded a comebacker and spun towards second to start a double play. Nishioka, whose responsibility it was to cover the bag, was nowhere near the base. To his credit, he did adjust in time to get the one out at second but they were unable to covert the double play. Similarly, on Friday in Cleveland, after a series of misplays by the shortstop Justin Morneau nabbed a grounder while ranging to his right, positioning himself perfectly to make the easy throw to second – the direction in which his momentum was carrying him. The problem was, once again, nobody was covering the base.

It was Nishioka’s play on Friday night that inspired columnist Patrick Reusse to write: “This young man knows less about the basics of playing shortstop (or second base) than any big-leaguer I've ever watched.” Given his body of work in the field this month, it is a statement that is hard to argue with.

All of the fielding metrics – RZR, UZR, LOL, OMG, INBD, etc - suggest that Nishioka is a bottom-feeding defensive talent this year. But you don’t need these stats to tell you the obvious. So why is Nishioka is struggling so much in the field?

First is the issue of inexperience. While those aforementioned plays in which he failed to cover second are inexcusable in any country, some misplays have been an extension of this inexperience. For example, in the play in which the Indians’ Travis Hafner chopped a ball past Carl Pavano, Nishioka charged hard and hastily tried to field and throw on the run. Now, had he been more familiar with his competition he may have taken his time to ensure he gloved the ball and made a set throw. After all, Hafner moves with the velocity of someone submerged in wet cement. 

This is exactly the kind of situation that he was warned about. Over the winter, fellow countryman and failed MLB shortstop Kaz Matsui offered Nishioka some advice through the Japanese media. The first point was about not worrying about the transition from artificial turf to grass, the second was about being aware of getting spiked at second (d’oh), and the final point was for the incoming infielder to keep tabs on the foot speed of his competition. As I wrote back in January on the topic:

“The final word of advice from Matsui, “gather data on baserunners”, is fairly straight-forward. Unlike those that develop within the minor league system, Matsui had little experience educating himself on players in the majors. He was thrusted into a starting role without the proper knowledge of his opposition and, unlike someone like Cal Ripken who goes to great lengths preparing for each opponent, Matsui was likely manning a demanding position cold-turkey (particularly when you factor in a language barrier). Either way, Matsui’s message to Nishioka is clear: Spend time learning the competition.” 

Had Nishioka been more familiar with the league, he would have known that Hafner’s grounder did not require the hurried play. Essentially, Nishioka – who was a superstar in Japan – needs to become a student of the game again. If he is not already, he needs to be reviewing video of upcoming opponents and discussing the base-running abilities of hitters with the coaching staff. This would help minimize miscues like the one against Hafner.

Then there is the issue of how Nishioka fields the ball.

For those who follow the Twins regularly, you may have noticed Nishioka’s propensity to maneuver his body behind the ball on plays towards the third base hole instead of backhanding the grounder like the majority of shortstops do. It is not so much his failure to do so but rather the method in which players in Japan are taught to field the ball. Reporter Naofumi Murakami explains why:

“In Japan, it's typical to catch a grounder facing front toward the incoming ball. There is more focus on the stability gained from not using the back of the hand to catch the ball. But in the major leagues, the backhand catch--in which the shortstop grab grounders to their right side with one hand by stretching out their arm with the glove--is mainstream. There is a risk of the ball bouncing off the glove, but the shortstop can get into a position of throwing the ball faster because of the lack of unnecessary moves.”

Here we see an example of this Japanese style of fielding. Instead of extending his arm across his body, back handing the ball and putting himself in a better position to throw, Nishioka slides his entire body in front of the Padres’ Ryan Ludwick’s ground ball:

 

Even though it worked in this instance, had someone speedier than Ludwick been running down the baseline that runner may have easily beaten the play.

Nishioka and the Twins continue to work on getting the shortstop adapted to the American-style of play however changing this deeply ingrained technique may not be as simple as flipping a switch. Nishioka says that the backed play in Japan is viewed as “lazy” and getting him to change his style of play after decades of indoctrination and thousands of hours committing it to muscle memory would be like trying to get an American shortstop to ditch the backhand in favor of getting their bodies in front of those grounders.

Finally, although the physical aspects of his game have relatively simple solutions, the mental side – like failing to cover second - is a bit more perplexing. Is it deference to his more experienced middle infield partners? Is it a communication problem? Or your average run-of-the-mill brain farts and lack of focus? Who knows?

Personally, I see parallels in Nishioka’s current situation to Denard Span’s conversion to a full-time centerfielder in 2010. While Span had all the talent and tools in the world to be an outstanding defender, he often backed deferred to his corner outfielders to try to make plays on the in-between balls. Many of those unfortunately fell to the earth. Meanwhile, before his injury this season, Span showed a much better tendency to go all-out after those same types of fly balls and taking command of the outfield. It is not unreasonable to think that after Nishioka acclimates and gains the confidence to quarterback the middle infield, we will see improvements in this department.

In hindsight, it was wrong for the Twins’ evaluators and decision-makers to assume Nishioka could seamlessly transition into the highest level of baseball in the world. While competition in Japan may be comparable to AAA, there is still plenty of difference in the style of play that keeps it from being an effortless jump for players. Obviously his defensive development has been stifled by the broken leg as well as a language barrier, but it seems apparent now that Nishioka would have benefitted from a season in Rochester to acclimate to the American-version of the game.

Twins rotation needs to get back on track

In June the Twins and their fans were on cloud nine. The team had rattled off a 17-9 record after falling on their face out of the starting gate. It was…happening. But then June begat a mediocre July which slowly transitioned into an awful August.

The bridge between all of this has been the starting rotation. When the team was rolling through the early part of summer, the rotation held the American League’s best ERA that month (3.00). In July, as the team went a good-not-great 16-13, the rotation’s ERA jumped up to 4.76. Now 2-7 in so far in August, the rotation has been shackled to a 5.50 ERA and have not yet recorded a win in those 9 games.

To their credit, since the All Star Break, the Twins rotation has done a marvelous job pitching to contact. The unfortunate follow up to that is that opposing teams have OUTSTANDING contact and have amassed a baseball-high .304 batting average off of them in that time. As the highest paid member of the rotation Carl Pavano has led the way since the break, allowing a .331 average against which is second in the American League to a thing called “Jason Vargas” of the Seattle Mariners. Not far behind Pavano is Brian Duensing (.317) and Nick Blackburn (.309) giving the rotation a three-to-one advantage over the offense (Joe Mauer) in averages over .300 in the past month.

If you want to get technical, in that same period of time the Twins are owners of a .330 batting average on balls in play. This would insinuate that there is some responsibility on the defense for being unable to convert many of the batted balls into outs. However, these are not your standard dribblers through the hole or bloops over the infield. According to Inside Edge scouting service Pavano (.274). Duensing (.250) and Blackburn (.241) all fall within the bottom 20 in well-hit average (charted well-hit balls per at bat). So, while the defense has been shaky at times we have also witnessed right-handers shooting lasers all over the field off of Duensing that no defensive configuration could have tracked.

Part of the reason opponents are able to spray bullets all over the field is that Twins pitchers are simply falling behind hitters far too frequently. Right now, the rotation’s 54.6% first-pitch strike rate is the lowest in baseball. This once was the Twins’ hallmark as in the previous two seasons they were the best in baseball at achieving strike one. This season they have been slinking steadily towards the bottom of the league in this category. More recently, both Francisco Liriano (46.7%, lowest in MLB) and the usually commanding Duensing (49.6%, 5th-lowest) have had troubles starting the count in their favor the past 30 days.

What does this mean? It means that Twins pitchers will have a higher tendency of putting a runner on or getting piss-pounded across the yard. After a first-pitch ball, major league hitters have posted a robust .818 OPS – very comparable to what Jim Thome is producing at this season. On the other hand, if a pitcher manages to get ahead in the count right away, hitters have been held to a .600 OPS – slightly higher than what Ben Revere is at now. Clearly, in order to be successful, it is best to put opponents at a disadvantage.

Bu these are just symptoms of an overall larger issue: THEY ARE JUST NOT THROWING ENOUGH STRIKES. Period.

Since the break they have thrown 1,020 balls in 2,699 pitches over the course of 158.2 innings of work. This is by far the highest amount of non-strikes and the second most pitches thrown by the starting rotation in baseball. Not surprising, Liriano has thrown 261 balls leading to a post-break high of 21 walks in 33.1 innings in six starts. Trailing him in the AL is Blackburn, a typically control-oriented pitcher, who has walked 17 hitters in 32 innings in his six starts. For the Twins it means more walks or more situations in which a pitcher has to groove one down the middle which leads to runs in bunches and early visits to the showers.

It would be unfair to put the entire onus on the starting rotation - after all, the offense has not been on fire when it comes to run support since the break. The 4.14 runs per nine innings is the lowest support in the AL with the exception of the Los Angeles Angels and the Mariners (who have not recorded a hit since 2008). So like the defense, they deserve to shoulder some of blame as well. That said it is the starting rotation sets the tone for the team and they need to get back to the basics by attacking the strike zone early and work ahead of hitters.  

Surgery or rehab for Kyle Gibson?

Last night, not long after the Twins put Scott Baker on the DL with a strained flexor muscle, they  announced that 2009 first round draft pick Kyle Gibson was going to report to Fort Myers after he was diagnosed with a strained flexor muscle as well as a partial tear in his ulnar collateral ligament.

Gibson was a pitcher on the fast-track in the system, moving swiftly through the minors and performing extremely well along the way. Armed with a slicing two-seam fastball and an impressive change-up, it was easy to see what the six-foot-six right-hander was succeeding in Rochester and knocking on the door in Minnesota. He was the owner of the International League’s second-highest ground ball rate (57%), ninth-highest strikeout percentage (21.7%) and tenth-highest FIP (3.73). Now, it appears that his arrival to Minnesota will be delayed.

While a completely torn UCL would have necessitated Tommy John surgery right away and costing him 12-to-18 months of development, in the case of partial tears to the UCL, experts have often recommended a path of rest followed by rehab lasting 12-to-18 weeks total before re-evaluation. However, it is a song-and-dance fans have seen before – most recently with Pat Neshek – in which the staff and front office says Pitcher X is going to attempt to get some R&R before the inevitable date with Dr. New Elbow and wasting several weeks of time in the process. The question is how often do pitchers have success with this route?

According to an article by Baseball Prospectus’s Ben Lindbergh, the odds are not terrific. Lindbergh cites a Corey Dawkins’ article on the subject in which he wrote:

“The UCL does not completely heal on its own ever. Without surgery, the area is only stabilized by two methods. First, the elbow can be strengthened up to the point where the muscles take up the slack for the lack of ligament stability. The other method is that scar tissue is built up and the muscles are also strengthened. Regardless neither of these actually heal the tissue of the ligament, they merely control the symptom of instability.”

Lindbergh approximated that 55 percent of pitchers who have gone down the path of rest & rehab have eventually made an appointment to have their UCL replaced. That list includes the Neshek who went almost a year in his rehab before requiring Tommy John surgery that all but ended his career in Minnesota. On the other hand, Lindberg notes that the Angels’ Ervin Santana followed the R&R program and wound up returning to pitch without yet running back to the surgical table. In fact since his 2009 shutdown Santana has logged 388 innings, compiled a 25-18 record with a pristine 3.62 ERA and solid 306/116 strikeouts/walk ratio.

So there is hope for Gibson in that regard. But the other concern is that Gibson has less than optimal mechanics – the kind that puts added stress on this area. Even if the Twins rest him for a while to the point where he stabilizes his UCL, it is likely that his mechanics would jar that bugger loose again anyways.

Way back in December of 2008 – long before a forearm stress fracture sidelined him at the end of the 2009 season – Kyle Boddy of the now-defunct Driveline Mechanics website deconstructed Gibson’s mechanics. Boddy found that Gibson’s leg kick was wasted motion as he lowered it before driving forward, minimizing hip force and putting added exertion on his arm. What’s more is that Gibson brings his elbow to the point of hyperabduction while scap loading (drawing his pitching arm off of the driveline of home/second instead towards first). In the video below taken by 1500ESPN’s Phil Mackey in Fort Myers this spring, while the visibility is not perfect, you can see some of the elements that Boddy was referring to including the leg motion and scap loading of his pitching arm:

It’s a difficult decision, no doubt. If you opt for Tommy John now and you have lost a year or more to development at a critical time. On the other hand, if you attempt to rest and rehab, Gibson could lose a few months before requiring Tommy John surgery anyways. Now the waiting game begins with their top prospect.