Brian Duensing
entered last night’s start owning the third-highest WHIP against right-handed
batters (1.63) – only surpassed by San Francisco’s Jonathan Sanchez (1.64) and
Detroit’s Phil Coke (1.77) – in 2011.
This is not
any accident of sample size either - including last season the Twins’
left-hander has the fourth-highest WHIP versus righties among qualified starters. It is an
amazing contrast considering he has managed to
compile some impressive numbers against his southpawed brethren. Since 2010 he
has a baseball-best 0.81 WHIP with the fourth-lowest .187 batting average when
facing same-sided opponents.
When facing
lefties, Duensing’s approach is to work the fastball in on the hands and then
unleash his sharp slider off the plate down-and-away. Lefties have found this
extremely difficult to hit hard – if they make contact at all - beating the ball into
the ground 52% of the time in 2011. This means very few extra base hits. Pepper in
his ability to get them to chase the running slider and it equates to one bad
mamma-jamma.
Of course,
the world is dominated by the right-handed and Duensing has certainly played the role of
the submissive this season.
His plan of
attack against righties seems strikingly similar but for his secondary pitches.
In terms of his fastball, Duensing targets the outer-half of the plate. Rather
than using his slider like he does for lefties, he favors his change-up instead. Because he prefers to use a backdrop slider – locating the
pitch on the outer-half of the plate to righties – the offering sees less
horizontal movement. This gives righties a better opportunity to make contact.
The changeup, while effective, is not nearly the same swing-and-miss pitch that
the slider is. Hence, in order to be successful Duensing needs to work down in
the zone and get grounders.
He did that
quite well last year, as you will see in the chart below, but the Twins starter
is not achieving the same results on batted balls as he did in 2010. Rather
than the high amount of grass-killers, hitters are squaring up on his pitches
more, hitting them for ropes around the ballpark:
Duensing’s Batted Ball Distribution vs Right-Handers
|
|||
Line Drive%
|
Groundball%
|
Flyball%
|
|
2010
|
15.7
|
52.8
|
31.5
|
2011
|
20.8
|
40.5
|
38.7
|
Using mostly his fastball, he leaves the ball up in the zone far too frequently, even more so than last season:
There is a
stark discrepancy between the location of his fastball to right-handers between
this year and the last. In 2010 (on the right) Duensing was able to keep his
down in the zone – a more difficult spot for righties to hit solidly. This
season more and more of his fastballs have been up and over the plate – a much
easier place to drive the ball.
That alone is
likely reason enough to explain the significant drop in his groundball rate against righties.
However, let’s factor in the placement of his most frequently used secondary pitch: the
changeup.
While
Duensing’s primary pitch to right-handers is his fastball, he mixes in a
changeup to keep them off-balanced. Last season, he was far more prone to
throwing his change down in the zone, getting weaker contact and likely
inciting more hitters to turn over on the pitch. This season, similar to his
fastball, the changeup has been up and over the plate. This means opponents
would have a greater tendency to drive the ball.
It was
suspected that Duensing would find
himself scuffling against the righties and witness regression. On the other
hand, one had to wonder if he did
have some of those rare intangibles (aggressiveness in the zone, efficient,
bulldog-like battle tendencies) that continue to outperform where his peripherals would suggest
he should be at. Unfortunately, it has been more of the former and less of the
latter in 2011.
With Kevin Slowey putting together a string of
good starts in Rochester, fans are beginning to clamor for change in the
rotation. With a large deficiency in the standings to overcome, management cannot turn a blind eye
to the struggles it much longer. While Nick Blackburn is likely the first candidate to be
removed from the rotation, Duensing can’t be far behind. If he wants to remain
in the rotation, he needs to keep the ball down in the zone against righties.
Easier said
than done.
****
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