In his
conference call to the season ticket holders, Twins general manager Bill Smith
made no promises for last offseason’s marquee signing, Tsuyoshi
Nishioka:
"We've gotta figure out shortstop, and that may involve going out and getting another shortstop. We've got [Alexi] Casilla, we've got [Trevor] Plouffe, we've got [Tsuyoshi] Nishioka -- we've gotta find somebody that can be a stable, starting everyday shortstop."
So, the man
they were willing to commit $9 million to over three years is now destined to
try to earn a job in the spring. For the majority of fans, this suits them just
fine. Better yet, he can go hang out with the center field trees – wherever
they are now.
When he was initially
signed, I broke
down some of the available footage of Nishioka’s Japanese playing days. At
the time, I caution that the video clips, compiled by Beverly Hills Sports
Council (also Nishioka’s stateside agent), were very likely cherry-picked to
serve the purpose of inflating his value. Even with this in mind, the majority
of his swings seemed impressive as the ball was jumping off his bat. Yes, he
pulled off with his front hip on the left-side but overall, Nishioka was
driving the ball on a rope to all fields. The thought was that his foundation
seemed solid enough to support a somewhat smooth transition.
Of course, the
transition was about as smooth as Stearns County bathtub whiskey.
Truthfully, I
was a bit stunned at what showed up in a Twins uniform. This version of
Nishioka resembled nothing of the player that was poking line drives every
which way but loose.
Early in the
season, he struggled to stay in with his front side while batting left-handed
and opponents picked him apart by pitching him away. He constantly made weak
contact. In fact, his .014 isolated power average was the lowest against
right-handed pitching in all of baseball (among those with a minimum of 130
plate appearances). According to Inside Edge’s scouted data, they have Nishioka
marked with a .135 well-hit average against righties – lower than Drew Butera
and Rene Rivera.
When Nishioka
was finally shutdown in September for the year, manager Ron Gardenhire provided
his assessment
of how to better the Japanese middle infielder:
"His upper body is not as strong as I think it can be. He can gain upper-body strength, and that is going to help him with his swing. Perry has a good program written up for him, and I know Nishioka [already] has a good program over there."
While adding upper body strength is a good thing (so long as
he doesn’t focus too much on his glamour muscles), Nishioka’s problems at the
plate seem to stem from his legs, not his arms. Take a look at these two side shots of
his swing from the left side, one from his Chiba Lotte days and one from this
past season against New York:
There is a
noticeable difference that stands out to me which may be a source of his
offensive incontinence as a lefty - his launching point. The launch point is
when a hitter’s weight is shifted back before he launches forward towards the
pitch. Let’s take a look at some of Nishioka’s swings from the left-side
throughout the years:
In the first
clip, an image of him from the ‘06 NPB season when Nishioka was a 22 year old in
his fourth year of professional baseball, you see him implementing a very
aggressive leg kick and in position to drive his front leg forward.
In the second
clip –one from Nishioka’s latter Chiba Lotte days – we find that the launch
point is scaled down a bit. Still, what you see from this position is that
Nishioka is driving his front hip forward as a significant amount of his weight
is poised on his back leg.
Meanwhile,
this year, Nishioka seems to have once again refined his mechanics and reduced
the amount of lift in his front leg (or at least varied the angle in which he
brings his front leg back). He also is shifting less weight on his back leg
thus staying tall more throughout his swing. The end result appears to be more
arm and wrist in his swings than engaging his lower half and weak contact
overall.
Now, to
speculate, there are plenty of reasons why Nishioka would pare down his stride.
The first being due to the increased velocity in America versus Japan –
simplifying his swing would aid him in making more contact. The aggressive
approach would also leave a hitter more vulnerable to off-speed pitches as
well. Perhaps he made the adjustments on his own. Another theory is that the Twins encouraged
Nishioka to trim down his lower half for the same reasons listed above. The
club prides itself on putting the ball in play and may have wanted Nishioka to
focus on contact and using his speed (or rather the once projected speed).
Regardless of the why, it has made Nishioka one of the worst offensive producers
the Twins have seen in a long time.
Ideally,
for someone like Nishoka, more effort is needed from his legs and hips in order
to generate some semblance of pop. This is very similar to Alexi Casilla. Dating back to 2010, Casilla had a
pared down swing from the left-side, relying mostly on his upper body to do the
work. Unfortunately, this resulted in more bouncers and slow rollers than
anything else. At some point, Casilla incorporated his legs more and he had
much more success:
“Casilla is able to engage his lower-half much better. Because of that, despite putting plenty of balls on the ground, we see the ball jump off his bat much better than it had at the beginning of the season. So, while grounders still become outs at high percentage of the time, putting them into play at a greater velocity is bound to turn into hitters more frequently than those of the slow bouncer variety.”
So, is
Nishioka hopeless? Did the Twins just piss away $9.25 million in salary and
another $5.3 in securing his negotiating rights?
One winter
ago everyone assumed Casilla was cooked. His small adjustment proved that he
could compete, posting a 779 OPS from mid-May until his mid-summer injury.
Looking back at the old footage of Nishioka, I can see him capable of having a
much improved season in 2012.
Without
touching upon the atrocious defense – that’s
a whole ‘nother problem right there – if the organization hopes to salvage
some of the investment spent on Nishioka on the offensive side of the ball, the
focus should be on getting him to return to his pre-major league days.
