After engaging in a waiting game with corner outfield incumbent
Michael Cuddyer, the Twins appear poised to move on to the next option
in Josh Willingham.
As both Phil
Mackey and Aaron
Gleeman pointed out yesterday, the decision to move from Cuddyer to Willingham
isn’t just based on their performance but also the additional picks that come
with allowing Cuddyer to walk. From an organization-building standpoint,
landing two free draft picks is a wise decision in and of itself. Then, on top
of that, the team is able to sign
Willingham for $3M less overall than the offer to Cuddyer (which may even
be $7M in savings if Cuddyer gets his $30M that has been floated out by several
national writers). It all adds up to the right move by the Twins
decision-makers.
What’s more, despite having similar offensive production
the past two seasons, there is another advantage to signing Willingham if you
consider his style might be better suited for Target Field.
The Twins organization puts a great amount of pride on
getting their hitters to use the entire field. Unfortunately, in Minneapolis
today, that gets you diddley-squat. According to observations made by Delmon
Young in October,
the former Twin said the configurations and the
environment made using the entire field nearly impossible:
“Target Field changed my whole field of hitting. I usually tried to use the middle of the field, and if I pulled, I pulled, and if I went the other way, I went the other way.
At Target Field, when those balls turn into can-of-corn outs and I was fighting for playing time over there, I couldn’t afford to have a flyout to deep right field. I had to try to pull the ball to get a base hit.”
As it turns out, Young
was correct. Most of the home runs hit at Target Field by right-handers were pulled,
a dozen were hit to left-center, five to center and just three went opposite
field. This was a huge drop-off from production at the Metrodome when
right-handers had 20 home runs to center and right field in 2009. If the Twins
were going to get a right-hander with home run power, they would need to
acquire a pull hitter to thrive at Target Field. That’s where Josh Willingham
comes in.
In the simplest terms, Willingham is that dead-pull
hitter the Twins need:
As you can see from his spray chart taken from the past
two seasons, Willingham favors yanking the ball down the line – and this method
has paid dividends for the 32-year-old outfielder. Over the past three seasons
his weighted on-base average has been the seventh-best while his isolated power
numbers (ISO) have been the fourth-highest among qualified hitters.
Highest wOBA when pulling (2009-2011)
|
|||
Name
|
PA
|
ISO
|
wOBA
|
Mark Reynolds
|
462
|
0.522
|
0.596
|
Jose Bautista
|
536
|
0.577
|
0.594
|
Kevin Youkilis
|
464
|
0.424
|
0.562
|
Curtis Granderson
|
657
|
0.503
|
0.560
|
Carlos Gonzalez
|
424
|
0.436
|
0.553
|
Miguel Cabrera
|
559
|
0.433
|
0.549
|
Josh Willingham
|
490
|
0.461
|
0.544
|
Willingham’s pull-power served him well last year in
Oakland where he slugged a robust .523 at the O.co Coliseum (O.co? We’re coming
very close to having something named “Preparation H Arena” as seen in BASEketball, aren’t we?) when all
right-handers only managed to .363 (only eight other stadiums were tougher on
right-handed hitters in baseball last year). By comparison, righties compiled a
.417 slugging percentage at Target Field.
What makes Willingham so exceptionally good at pulling
the ball is his ability to hit the ball out in front:
In addition to making contact out in front, Willingham
draws his power from a stiff front leg which helps with leverage and keeps his
hands inside as his back arm stays close to his body at a little over a 90
degree angle – otherwise known as the “Power L” position. This combination,
plus his natural strength, has led to a home run every 18.6 at bats since 2009.
In theory, this package should play much better within the
home confines as opposed to Michael Cuddyer’s approach of using the entire
field.
Cuddyer, a strong individual in his own right, allows pitches
to get much further into the zone and therefore winds up with a much more even
distribution of hits to all fields. As such, the vast majority of his home runs
also have left the yard in the left-center gap – a more difficult act to do on
a regular basis at Target Field – versus close to the left field foul pole where
Willingham’s home runs land.
This isn’t to say anything that what Cuddyer is doing is
bad, per se; it’s just the way he’s designed. Of course, these are just
examples as he certainly does hit some out in front that travel a long ways but
overall, he thrives on being the type of hitter that can poke an outside pitch
to right or send one back up the middle. For Willingham, that’s basically
unheard of.
While it may have been Cuddyer’s attempt at a polite
kiss-off by not accepting the offer, it could end up doing the team a huge
service by giving them two draft picks, payroll relief and a player better
suited for Target Field in Josh Willingham.
