The Third Base Trade Candidates
It seems to be a shared conclusion between the frequently warring Hatfield Twins media and the Maccoy Twins blogosphere to agree that the line-up needs an injection of a right-handed bat that can handle left-handed pitching. Neither Craig Monroe nor Delmon Young have lived up to expectations in that regard and Michael Cuddyer's timetable of return is still up in the air. Looking at the Twins' third baseman's slugging compared to the American League average leaves no doubt:
| Slugg. as 3B | Twins | AL | Diff |
| 2005 | .394 | .428 | -.034 |
| 2006 | .374 | .442 | -.068 |
| 2007 | .323 | .427 | -.107 |
| 2008 | .371 | .424 | -.054 |
Adrian Beltre | Seattle Mariners | 29-years-old
Contract: $12-million in 2008, $12-million in 2009 (Has limited no-trade clause with 8 teams)
| vs. LHP - 2008 | PA% vs LHP | BB% | K% | HR/PA | avg | obp | slg | lhp-rhp slg diff. |
| Beltre | 22.9% | 17.7% | 8.0% | 22.5 | .351 | .467 | .554 | +.144 |
| AL RHB Avg | 48.7% | 10.0% | 16.2% | 38.2 | .269 | .345 | .426 | +.023 |
Validity? La Velle E. Neal reported recently that the Twins front office made the inquiry regarding Beltre to the remnants of whatever is left of the Mariners front office after the Bill Bavasi fallout to whomever was available to answer the phone. There is no indication as to how far the trade discussions went. Perhaps they spoke to a janitor.
What Will It Take? In terms of liquidable parts on the Mariners roster, Beltre might fetch the highest ransom on the roster. Contrary to what is written by Twins fans in various comments on Strib blogs, it will take more than just offering Boof Bonser, Livan Hernandez and Brian Duensing. The Mariners are in need of pitching to bolster their farm system which is one of the commodities that the Twins have an abundance of. If you look at USS Mariners' Future Forty list of the franchise's prospects, you realize that besides those prospects that are currently occupying the bullpen at Safeco, the organization is extremely thin for cheap pitching in the near future. Seattle is committed to Carlos Silva, Jarrod Washburn and Miguel Batista through 2009. Sixty percent of the Mariners rotation is 12-29 with only Washburn and his 4.95 era the only one under 5.00. Those three are due a collective $30.35-million in 2009 with Washburn and Batista coming off of the ledgers after that season which leaves the Mariners with King Felix Hernandez and the possibility of Erik Berdard (if he is resigned after his contact expires after this season). With RA Dickey, the knuckleballing Rule 5 pick nabbed from the Twins this past offseason, assuming some of Bedard's starts while he is on the disabled list, the ideal of adding Bonser or Hernandez to the deal might appeal to the Mariners as they struggle to divvy up innings among failing starters. Bonser is still young enough to have the Mariners consider accepting him into their rotation. Hernandez would just digest the innings until the miserable season at the SoDo ballpark concludes. So that would leave the Mariners looking beyond 2009 which would require some of the young arms developed by the Twins system.
Why? Obviously the Twins haven't been able to acquire the third base package at TJ Maxx. Mike Lamb looked good on the rack but didn't fit right once we brought him home and eventually he worked his way from starting third baseman to taking up valuable space on the roster when Brian Buscher was recalled from Rochester and produced in the way they Twins expected Lamb too. There are several options of course, using an inexpensive and passable platoon of Brian Buscher and Matt Macri - a combination that may be satisfactory but would never propel a team deep into the post-season. Not only would Beltre aide in this season's post-season run, but the biggest appeal is that his $12-million dollar contract for 2009 does not look as outlandish as it once did when he was signed in 2005. The Cubs are due to write a check for nearly $16-million to the 30-year-old Aramis Ramirez who is hitting .253/.349/.387 against lefties and is ranked 24th among major league third basemen according to the Fielding Bible Plus/Minus (which is a stark contrast to his 2007 season where he ranked 4th overall). Beltre is ranked 2nd overall defensively among third baseman behind Scott Rolen. A season and a half of Beltre is worth the prospects and $12-million when you contemplate the cost of purchasing that kind of talent on the free agent market.
Kevin Kouzmanoff | San Diego Padres | 26-years-old
Contract: Through 2008 at $0.41. Arbitration eligible. Currently has 1.08 years of major league service.
| vs. LHP - 2008 | PA% vs LHP | BB% | K% | HR/PA | avg | obp | slg | lhp-rhp slg diff. |
| Kouzmanoff | 29.3% | 4.4% | 22.3% | 28 | .311 | .366 | .534 | +.132 |
| NL RHB Avg | 35.4% | 10.0% | 15.9% | 35.4 | .275 | .352 | .440 | +.046 |
Validity? Based on heresay and speculation. The Padres have super prospect 24-year-old Chase Headley who is, by all accounts, a better defensive third baseman with a higher upside and are in the market for major league ready pitching. The Padres' GM Paul Depodesta on his blog addressed that the Padres should actually be sellers - a fact shared by 80% of the Padre Nation.
What Will It Take? Similar to the Mariners, the Padres have two aging pitchers whose contracts are expiring at the end of this season. Certainly Greg Maddux might Brett Favre everyone and keep coming back and the Padres might pony up to resign Randy Wolf for any tour of duty, but the organization could also use a Boof Bonser addition to eat some of the innings this season. Bonser might find the confines of Petco Park to be beneficial to his pitching style. Past 2008, the Padres have two solid arms in double-A San Antonio, Will Inman and Scott Garrison, who are both throwing well in the Texas League, turning the legal drinking age this season but could possibly stand one more season of minor league experience in 2009. Another one of the aforementioned Missions' rotation-mates is the 24-year-old Matt Buschmann also pitching extremely well. In fact, Inman, Buschmann and Garrison are first, second and third among strikeout leaders in the League. On top of a Bonser or a Duensing, it would probably require a Jeff Manship (or at least a propsect in high-A or lower) to be added to the deal.
Why? Kouzmanoff is young and inexpensive and mashes left-handed pitching. That is about the gist of it. He doesn't have any patience so the higher on-base percentage is due to his high average on batted balls in play and not due to being able to draw a walk. His peripherals in that respect are closer to Delmon Young than Adrian Beltre who would wait and draw a walk. His defense is suspect-to-terrible. He received an A- for his ability to charge a bunt but is limited in his movement towards short. If the Twins think they can get Kouzmanoff to understand the strike zone better (which hasn't happened with Young or Carlos Gomez), Kouzmanoff would be a less expensive addition than Beltre. Then again, the Twins have been burned by the bargain shopping lately and might be better suited investing a bit more for Beltre. However, targeting Kouzmanoff and dealing with Paul Depodesta might be a way to get reliever Heath Bell (50 innings, 21.1% k%, 1.78 pLI) to fulfill that bullpen need in a one-stop shop.
Garrett Atkins | Colorado Rockies| 28-years-old
Contract: Through 2008 at $4.38-million. Arbtration elegable. Currently has 3.07 years of major league service.
| vs. LHP - 2008 | PA% vs LHP | BB% | K% | HR/PA | avg | obp | slg | lhp-rhp slg diff. |
| Atkins | 20.9% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 11.8 | .461 | .494 | .789 | +.388 |
| NL RHB Avg | 35.4% | 10.0% | 15.9% | 35.4 | .275 | .352 | .440 | +.046 |
Validity? The Twins had made several investigative phone calls last year around this time to see if there was anything the Rockies desired. The word was the they were asking for the moon for him - even with uber-prospect Ian Stewert ready to produce the same at Coors but for what will be a fraction of the price. The asking price may have been steep considering the Rockies were only 5 games out of the NL West race at the trade deadline and felt like they could compete (rightly so). This season with 8.5 games between them and the NL West front-running Diamondbacks, the idea that the Rockies will part with Atkins at a reasonable amount is not far-fetched.
What Will It Take? Prior to the Cleveland Indians' collapse and subsequent in-season rebuilding, there was plenty of speculation that there was a move to be made between the two franchises - as Casey Blake was not the third baseman of the future and once crown-jewel Andy Marte is essentially an afterthought. The speculation was that the trade would require the Indians to part with Aaron Laffey (or Jeremy Sowers) as the centerpiece of the trade. The desire behind Laffey is that the Rockies are obviously focused on acquiring groundball pitchers to offset the homer-friendly Coors Field. You can bet the first words out of the Rockies' mouths will be, Nick Blackburn, who has the history of being a groundball pitcher in the minor leagues. At this juncture in the season Blackburn might be close to untouchable. Outside of Blackburn, Brian Duensing is basically a slightly older verison of Aaron Laffey, but gets slightly fewer groundballs, but might be passable as a trade candidate for the Rox. And Zachery Ward is a slightly more erratic (10%) Duensing with the ability to get the strikeout (20%) as well as the groundball (57%) but the 24-year-old is experiencing double-A for the first time this season so he is less than major league ready.
Why? The power is hard to argue with but it could also be Coors Field induced as well. Like his lefty-righty split, his home-road split is just as pronounced as he is slugging .189 points lower away from the Mile High City. He is still an elite candidate but you can believe that he wouldn't be fetching nearly as high of a ransom had his value been based on hitting at Dodger Stadium or Progressive Field all this time. At the same time in his career Atkins has hit a home run every 31 plate appearances at Coors and hit a home run every 25 plate appearances on the road. Even if Atkins proves that Coors was his performance enhancement, Atkins would still be under the control of the Twins only through the 2009 season, at which point he becomes a free agent, and then the Twins regain one prospect back through the Free Agent Draft.
