The (2007) ‘Pen is Mightier
In 2007 manager Ron Gardenhire leaned on his bullpen to pitch 32.6% of the team's total innings. This was below the American League average of 34%. Limiting the use of the bullpen was critical with injuries to Dennys Reyes and Jesse Crain. The 2007 starting rotation provided the Twins with an ample 5.9 innings per start allowing much needed rest to the bullpen. The relievers, in response, provided 469.1 solid innings holding opponents to a .255/.325/.403 batting line as the starters were getting pummeled at a .276/.324/.445 clip. With only 18 of the team’s 83 losses attributed to the second fiddlers, the 2007 relief staff was effective in the later innings in both maintaining leads and the wherewithal to earn 20 victories as well. Below is the bullpen sorted by the percentage of relief innings provided.
| 2007 | inning% | K% | bb% | avg | obp | slg | fip |
| Guerrier | 18% | 19.3% | 5.9% | .220 | .276 | .342 | 3.98 |
| Nathan | 15% | 27.3% | 6.7% | .209 | .264 | .310 | 2.73 |
| Neshek | 14% | 26.6% | 9.7% | .183 | .266 | .325 | n/a |
| Rincon | 12% | 18.0% | 10.3% | .273 | .356 | .437 | 5.19 |
| Reyes | 6% | 15.1% | 15.1% | .309 | .419 | .391 | 4.68 |
| Crain | 3% | 14.1% | 5.6% | .292 | .338 | .536 | 6.19 |
| Twins Relief Avg: | x | 19.1% | 8.5% | .255 | .325 | .403 | x |
| League Relief Avg: | x | 18.5% | 9.9% | .257 | .336 | .398 | x |
As you can see, the Twins relief support was across the board slightly better than league average in all categories except slugging. This is attributed to the use of Juan Rincon who Gardenhire used in 12% of the relief innings, only to be torched for a slugging percentage of .437. The top three of the heaviest utilized pitchers, Guerrier, Nathan and Neshek, comprised of 47% of the relief innings and provided much better innings that your average reliever. When those three were on last year, it was like watching an Olympic relay team handing off a baton at a full sprint. Seventh inning Guerrier. Eighth inning Neshek. Nathan in the ninth. They inspired confidence.
The current year has been a different story altogether. The confidence that Twins fans felt with Nathan anchoring the back-end, Neshek in the 8th and a combination of Guerrier and Reyes in the 7th would give the Twins the best chance to win snapped when Neshek's arm did and the bullpen shuffle began. The starting rotation has only been able to supply an average of 5.7 innings per start in the first 66 games of the season. Because of this, Gardenhire has increased the relief staff usage to 36% (214.2) of the total innings (591) which is a sharp contrast to the 33% American League average. This increased reliance on the bullpen exacerbates the existing condition that the staff is depleted. To date, the bullpen has been responsible for nine losses. "We were complaining about having 13 pitchers right now," Gardenhire said, "but we've needed every single one of them."
| 2008 | inning% | K% | bb% | avg | obp | slg | fip |
| Bass | 19% | 9.6% | 7.5% | .312 | .369 | .547 | 6.18 |
| Guerrier | 16% | 15.1% | 10.1% | .262 | .342 | .383 | 4.54 |
| Rincon | 13% | 15.0% | 12.0% | .292 | .389 | .478 | 5.85 |
| Nathan | 12% | 26.2% | 4.9% | .250 | .264 | .316 | 2.54 |
| Crain | 12% | 16.1% | 10.2% | .267 | .339 | .448 | 4.84 |
| Reyes | 9% | 13.9% | 7.6% | .268 | .333 | .380 | 3.65 |
| Neshek | 6% | 26.7% | 7.1% | .240 | .291 | .460 | n/a |
| Twins Relief Avg: | x | 16.3% | 8.8% | .273 | .343 | .471 | x |
| League Relief Avg: | x | 18.8% | 10.3% | .249 | .331 | .383 | x |
The pitchers that are now compiling 48% of the relief innings (Bass, Guerrier and Rincon) are substantially worse than your league average reliever. Brian Bass’s long relief duties have been riddled with offensive explosions (5.05 era) as he has been summoned to the mound with 31 inherited runs, seven of which have scored (23% IRA%). Bass has progressed since his May 24th Detroit debacle, only allowing three runs in almost ten innings of relief while stranding all nine inherited runners in that time. Unfortunately Bass had been tagged for three extra base hits including two home runs in those ten innings as well an indication that he is not . Juan Rincon’s demise has been well-documented as of late. The Twins blogosphere seems to be echoing the same three letters: DFA. According to Joe Christensen, the Twins have outrighted Rincon to Rochester (SENTIMENTALITY ALERT: with the release of Rincon, it effectively terminates any connection to the 2002 American League Central Champion Twins. Cuddyer, who played 41 games in 2002 in addition to 8 play-off games, is the last refuge). I suggested recently that Rincon should begin to work his slider more frequently now that the velocity on his fastball is decreasing. Instead, Rincon had increasingly thrown the fastball at a great frequency resulting in his .478 slugging percentage. Rincon will undoubtedly opt for free agency instead of accepting the minor league assignment which will allow any team to sign him (and his baggage). Any team that is desperate enough for a right-handed arm should consider getting Rincon to focus on the off-speed pitch.
Of the three, Matt Guerrier has been the most disappointing. Guerrier’s innings volume in 2007 is derivative of his use as a long-reliever in the beginning months of the seasons. He was so successful in that role that he was the natural choice to graduate to a 7th inning man. In April 2007, Guerrier was averaging 1.5 innings per outing. By the end of the season Guerrier was averaging about one inning per outing as his role was changed to short right-handed relief when Jesse Crain was disabled for the season and Neshek was shut down in September. What helped Guerrier were his breaking balls that were set up by a very good 92 mph fastball. Both his curveball (80 mph) and slider (86 mph) had high-rates of swing and misses (.348 and .364 WHIFF rates, respectively) and therefore led to his best strikeout rate of his career (19.3%). Guerrier’s emergence brought fortitude to an otherwise unstable bullpen. This season in his set-up role, Guerrier has accumulated seven holds but has been hit harder and has let more base runners on (10.0% bb%, .342 obp) then he had in his previous season. These erratic tendencies has made Guerrier less than the sure-thing set-up man that made Pat Neshek so valuable. The only difference in Guerrier’s pitch selection is that he is leaning slightly more on his fastball (58% vs. 55%) this season at the expense of his curveball (13% vs. 17%). This is notable because Guerrier's curve is much more likely to obtain a miss (nearly 35% of the time) than his fastball (18%).
Assuming that Boof Bonser, Brian Bass and Craig Breslow will shoulder some of the innings that were left for Rincon, the Twins will now be using a mixture of Reyes, Crain and Guerrier to bridge the starts from their 5.7 innings to Joe Nathan in the ninth. Things could be far worse. Dennys Reyes will continued to be asked to retire the left-handed slugger like Texas's Josh Hamilton or Cleveland's Grady Sizemore in late inning situations. As was the case last night when Reyes elevated a slider to Sizemore who redirected the pitch to the right field bleachers, the results may vary. So far this season, Reyes has inherited 26 runners allowing eight of them to score (30% IRA%). Reyes's numbers from his 2006 season when he posted a 0.89 era (2.92 fip) have changed in the past two seasons. In that season, Reyes essentially threw two pitches, a fastball (58%, 90.1 mph) and a slider (35%, 84.8 mph). This not only rendered left-handed hitters grossly ineffective (.148/.219/.205) but also the right-handed counterparts (.244/.299/.344) those two pitches helped Reyes get groundballs on nearly 73% of balls in play. This season, Reyes has been the same two pitch pitcher but has increased the amount of use of his slider from the 35% in 2006 to 47% of the time in 2008. Although left-handed opponents are still finding Reyes difficult to solve (.200/.250/.289) but right-handed hitters are crushing him (.385/.467/.538). In 2006, Reyes used the fastball exclusively against the right-handers (66% of the time). This season, right-handers are getting far fewer fastballs (43%) and are evidently hitting the off-speed offerings more. The 2008 version of Reyes isn't nearly as satisfying as the 2006 edition. "He's got more stuff that I don't know about. He changes arm angles, maybe spins it a little more, things like that. He's using a split-finger as a changeup a little bit this year," pitching coach Rick Anderson said. "He sees the same guys, so he's always adding things."
Crain is the question mark. His fastball, one that was reaching 94.3 on average prior to the surgery, is still effective at 93.7. The curveball, when thrown (only 12% of his total), has a big break with a decent change in speed (77 mph) to keep hitters off-balance. Though his month of May was littered with walks (12.3% bb%), his month of June so far has seen a much more controlled Crain (7.6% bb%). In 2006 the Twins assumed that Crain was going to be a solid sixth/seventh inning set-up man interchangeable with the fading Juan Rincon but after last year's shoulder surgery it was a mystery as to what Crain would be able to provide. The Twins management obvious have confidence in him. When asked his preference to replace the injured Neshek Ron Gardenhire said "I think Crain is my first choice. We'll go with match-ups, where we're at and what guys have done against other teams. I think we'll go Crain and Matt Guerrier, and then we'll probably use [left-hander Dennys] Reyes to get some of those lefties out in those innings. I think that with his stuff, he can absolutely handle it. Using that breaking ball like you saw last night -- that curveball, that back-door breaking ball -- his fastball is good enough, obviously. He's throwing it well."
