At the end of
2009, JJ Hardy was an offensive mess.
His overall
numbers were bad but his power production had almost evaporated. He had gone
from a hitter who had hit 50 home runs from 2007-2008 to one who hit 11. Unable
to figure neither his problem out nor willing to pay his escalating salary, the
Brewers shipped in to Minnesota for an equally perplexing talent in Carlos
Gomez.
Not long
after the trade, Alex Eisenberg at Baseball-Intellect.com compiled a marvelous progression
of Hardy’s
mechanical changes through his Brewers years. In determining his sudden drop-off
in ’09, Eisenberg identified that Hardy had a significant arm bar in his swing
causing him to have a longer swing in general. Knowing this, it is no surprise
that Hardy struggled that year against left-handed
pitchers who frequently targeted the outer-half of the plate. Likewise, another
facet of his game that gradually worsened was his ability to turn on a baseball
– this skill
slowly eroded almost completely in his final season in Milwaukee.
Shortly after
the Twins acquired him, I spoke with Twins assistant general manager Rob Antony
who said that hitting coach Joe
Vavra had seen the same thing – that he was barring out which led to a
longer swing. The club went to work making some adjustments to his swing in spring
camp. When he emerged, he had an overhauled swing.
Said Hardy
last April:
“I shortened up my swing; my stance is a lot different. My hands aren't as far away from my body as they were in '09, which makes it a lot easier to get to the ball. It was a full year of creating bad habits, and it's taken some time to get rid of them, but I feel like I'm on the right path."
While it may have been easier to “get to the ball” as
evidence by his reduced strikeout rate (from 18.3% in ’09 to 14.4% in ’10) and increased
contact rate (from 80.4% in ’09 to 85.5% in ’10), the power never manifested as
his isolated power actually dropped in his move from Wisconsin (from .128 to
.126). What’s more is that Hardy experienced a 4-year low in pulling the ball and
for power:
Year
|
% of Pitches Pulled
|
Slg% on Pulled Pitches
|
2007
|
69%
|
.729
|
2008
|
58%
|
.969
|
2009
|
49%
|
.526
|
2010
|
42%
|
.445
|
(fangraphs.com)
Without question, plenty of his power potential and wrist quickness
was drained when he
jammed his wrist in May. After returning at the end of the month with
minimal offensive production, Hardy sat out the majority of June and came back with
some pop in July, finishing the season hitting .302/.356/.436 over his final
227 plate appearances. Ignoring his late-season breakout and fixating on the shortcomings
that paled in comparison (not to mention his growing salary), the Twins flipped
Hardy to Baltimore for a pair of marginal bullpen arms.
Now, following a brief flare-up this spring, Hardy says his wrist in
100%. Given that his output has put
him on pace to have his best season at the plate since 2008 -- including 24
home runs up through Monday night – I tend to agree.
Part of the reason he has put up such impressive power
numbers is that he has thrived when pulling the ball: he’s pulled almost half
of his pitches to left (48.5%) and has his best slugging percentage that
direction since ’08 (.907).
Look at Hardy’s home run-to-swinging strike chart from 2010
below. (Remember that these pitch f/x charts are shown from a catcher’s
perspective so a right-handed batter would be on the LEFT side of the chart.) Here
we see that only one of his six home runs (the green dots) came on pitches on
the inner-half of the plate while the rest of his bombs came on pitches
middle-away:
In comparison Hardy has been decimating pitches thrown
inside this year:
Although factors such as a clean bill of health and hitter-friendlier
ballpark have aided in his resurgence, Hardy has also made a slight change to
his stance that is helping him exploit pitches on the inner-half better. As
mentioned above, Hardy and the Twins worked diligently on getting him to keep
his hands closer to his body – which offers better bat control – but it came at
the expense of power. Once he got to Baltimore Hardy ditched the 2010 stance
and has extended his arms while lowering them slightly:
The changes have provided Hardy with the ability to muscle it
into the left field seats.
Hardy’s success in Baltimore has made me think a bit about
the Twins’ teaching methods. The Twins appeared to have given Hardy a makeover
that led to a decreased ability to pull the ball. While this could have been a
byproduct of his wrist injury, it would not surprise me to find out that the
team was trying to rid Hardy of that habit. Clearly, the Twins are advocates
for using the whole field – something that they have tried to pound into Danny
Valencia for much of the season when he grew pull-happy. Before him it was
David Ortiz. So was a part of Hardy’s offensive re-education while in Minnesota
an attempt to get him to conform to the team’s “whole field” mentality?
Hardy may never have thrived with the Twins this season
like he would have in Baltimore. In addition to a less forgiving stadium in
Target Field, based on the team’s insistence on contact over power, Hardy may
have been spreading his hits out more rather than into the seats in left field.
He may have continued to work with his hands closer to his body rather than
moving them out and generating the pop he has with the Orioles.
Whatever the case or lesson here may be, Hardy’s healing
and minor correction in his stance has converted the almost-non-tendered
shortstop to a surefire AL Comeback Player of the Year winner.
