Over The Baggy

Analyzing the Front Three: (Part 1, Record of Opposing Batters)

What we can say with some certainty is that in the Twins rotation are Livan Hernandez, Boof Bonser and Scott Baker. Hernandez is slated to be the opening day pitcher while Bonser is hoping to over come a disappointing sophomore season and Baker has been considered the new "ace" of the staff (but may be a question mark due to a recent injury). The remainder of the rotation - be it Kevin Slowey, Philip Humber or Francisco Liriano - are equally, if not more, important but first few months of the 2008 season will be driven by the three right-handers, and they are the three we will inspect closer in the next few days.

I've been touring the Bill James website (www.billjamesonline.net) taking the opportunity to peruse the free tour before investing the ungainly sum of $3 a month for the limitless knowledge of baseball statistics and columns from the bearded one himself. It is fascinating stuff; eventually at some point this week I will throw the three crisp Washingtons at the James Enterprise (as well as buy the new book Gold Mine) so as not to feel like such a freeloader. If you haven't toured it yet, please do so.

There were several analyses that the Bill James website offered that should be applied to the Twins new top three starting pitchers. One was evaluating pitchers by their batting lines, titled Record of Opposing Batters. The notion being that if you would desire this pitcher as a "hitter" in your line-up based on how his opponents' hit him, you probably are not happy with his pitching production. James offers Greg Maddux's statistics as an example. Maddux's 2007 opponents had accumulated 776 at-bats, scored 92 runs, hit 14 home runs and had a batting line of .285/.309/.429 -- essentially hitting like Ivan Rodriguez (who hit .281/.294/.420 in 2007). Last year, Johan Santana's opponents had 814 at-bats, 88 runs scored, hit 33 home runs but had a lowly batting line of .225/.273/.405 -- a line very similar to that of the White Sox's freeswinging Juan Uribe's .234/.284/.394. If you were building a line-up you might include Ivan Rodriguez (on the basis of having an offensive catcher) but you definitely would omit Juan Uribe. Thus, Santana was much better than his 15-13 record suggested because he turned every hitter into Uribe while Maddux's performance was probably pretty consistent with his 14-11 record since Rodriguez had a satisfactory offensive season.

Inspecting the same numbers of the Twins front three in the rotation and we discover similar trends. Livan Hernandez finished .500 for the Diamondbacks (11-11) in 33 starts, but was also ripped for a .870 ops. Below is Hernandez's 2007 "batting line":

at-bats	runs	hits	2b	3b	hr	bb	k	sb	cs	gidp	avg	obp	slg	ops
803	116	247	42	5	34	79	90	20	5	22	.308	.371	.499	.870

Hernandez's batting line of .308/.371/.499 was most comparable to Indians switch-hitting catcher Victor Martinez who in 2007 batted .301/.374/.505. This is one indication of being lucky to achieve a .500 record. One reason he wasn't an absolute disaster is because he had the ability to strand runners on base at a 75% rate, a redeeming quality that probably "earned" him one more seasons in the pros thanks to a need for a veteran in the Twins rotation. However if he continues to turn his American League Central opponents into Martinez, success will be very fleeting.

Boof Bonser, meanwhile, completed 30 starts for the Twins in 2007 and compiled a 8-12 record his sophomore year in the majors.

at-bats	runs	hits	2b	3b	hr	bb	k	sb	cs	gidp	avg	obp	slg	ops
678	103	191	39	2	25	63	133	11	7	12	.282	.346	.456	.802

In 2006 Bonser fared much better by limiting opponents to a .770 ops. Part of the reason his ops inflated 30 points is that he labored to throw strikes and therefore walked more individuals (his walk rate crept up from 5.7% in 2006 to 8.4% in 2007). Andre Ethier of the Los Angeles Dodgers is the most comparable to Bonser's line. Ethier finished 2007 batting .284/.351/.452 which is a very respectable batting line for a hitter. The hope is that Bonser can rebound in his third season, harnessing the control that he had in 2006 with his ability to net strikeouts. Simply reducing the number of batters allowed to reach on walks would greatly reduce his on-base percentage, which aids in limiting the number of runs scored.

Scotty Baker had the most success of the three in 2007 but also only had 23 starts; he spent the first two months of the season refining pitching in Rochester. Like Hernandez, Baker finished .500 (9-9) but his batting line would suggest that he threw better than his record indicates:

at-bats	runs	hits	2b	3b	hr	bb	k	sb	cs	gidp	avg	obp	slg	ops
595	69	159	32	3	14	29	99	11	4	16	.288	.328	.432	.760

After Santana's departure, Baker received the moniker of potential staff ace by the local and mlb.com writers. Perhaps the 1-hit, shut-out of the Kansas City Royals was still fresh in the reporter's minds. This title was induced a collective scoff across the Twins blogosphere. Baker has a solid minor league track record, but staff ace? There was no evidence that suggested he was dominating (his highest strikeout total was 9 in one game which he accomplished twice in 2007). His comparable batting line is to Seattle Mariners catcher Kenji Johjima who hit .287/.322/.433 in the northwest, which is probably representative of a .500 record. So of the three, Baker is the worst "batter" making him candidate for the most successful pitcher of the trio.

The numbers indicate that there is plenty of room for improvement. Bonser and Baker have the talent to "hit" their way into Brandon Inge territory (.236/.312/.376). If injuries are not a factor, Baker seems like to most likely candidate to do that. Bonser needs to make some adjustments to reduce the number of free passes. Hernandez, as much as it pains me to say this, is probably destined to have an abysmal season. Games that will be decided by large quantities of runs will most likely be won by the opposing team, to which Hernandez has been privy to (he gave up 5 or more runs in 10 of his 33 starts). The Twins as a team are in no position to engage in slug-fests and the pitching staff will have to accommodate if the team is looking to contend in the American League Central.