Joe Nathan Breakdown

    In 2009, Joe Nathan will no longer find himself as the lone dominate closer in the AL Central.  Gone are the Todd Jones, Joe Borowskis and Ambiorix Burgoses, upgraded for high quality relievers.  The Royals' Joakim Soria made his grand entrance last year, racked up 42 saves in 2008 while strike out 25% of batters faced and producing a WHIP of 0.861.  Cleveland has acquired potentially the pitcher with the best stuff, albeit injury-prone, in Kerry Wood, who struck out 30% of batters faced and saved 34 games for the Chicago Cubs.  Detroit signed former Diamondbacks closer Brandon Lyon who saved 20 games in the desert before being transitioned back to a set up role.

    How does Joe Nathan's stuff, one that has made a living notching saves at the Metrodome for the better portion of the decade, compare with these and the rest of the league's closers? 

 

Name	FB_WHIFF	VELOCITY	USAGE	Zone%
J. Valverde	.273	95.3	61.5%	73.0%
J. Papelbon	.221	96.1	79.3%	72.7%
B. Ryan	.220	89.7	77.2%	67.0%
K. Wood	.215	96.1	71.1%	70.7%
B. Wilson	.214	96.3	74.9%	64.7%
J. Soria	.209	92.8	73.6%	66.7%
G. Sherrill	.185	90.4	71.5%	62.7%
J. Nathan	.184	95.2	61.0%	61.7%
B. Fuentes	.170	91.8	70.5%	65.9%
K. Gregg	.143	93.4	64.6%	62.4%
J. Putz	.141	94.6	49.7%	60.2%
B. Lidge	.137	96.1	25.1%	54.6%
M. Capps	.134	92.7	81.8%	69.4%
T. Hoffman	.132	87.8	62.3%	75.2%
B. Zieglar	.130	86.6	87.7%	66.9%
F. Rodriguez	.129	92.9	56.8%	61.2%
B. Lyon	.127	92.9	71.7%	67.7%
M. Riveria	.125	93.8	38.5%	46.1%
B. Jenks	.098	94.4	68.9%	67.0%
F. Cordero	.050	95.4	56.0%	47.4%

 

    This is sort of a misrepresentation of Nathan's fastball situation.  MLB.com's Pitch F/X system likes to categorize one of his fastballs as a "splitter" (this categorization should lend some indication as to what sort of action this pitch has).  In truth, the closer has two different fastballs he likes to deploy, one just happens to have a downward burst.  The first of which is a straight four-seamed fastball, which typically registers high velocity and has far greater contact made (a lowly .100 WHIFF).  The second type is a two-seamed fastball that has a strong sinking motion.  In terms of fastballs, the sinking variety is superior at making bats miss.  In 2007, Nathan's WHIFF average on the sinking fastball was .248.  This past season the WHIFF was at .245.  Combining the two fastballs it results in an overall fastball WHIFF of .184.  If he were to rely on the sinking version alone, his WHIFF would rank second behind only Houston's Jose Valverde. 

 

    Nevertheless, according to the chart above Nathan's fastball stands up fairly well, 8th out of 20 closers listed.  Ahead of him are power arms in Valvarde, Jonathon Papelbon, Kerry Wood and Brian Wilson (all above 95-mph).  Joakim Soria's fastball has some filthy movement while both BJ Ryan and George Sherill benefit from throwing against the earth's rotation (read: they're left-handed).  What separates Nathan from the Woods and the Papelbons is in his use of the pitch.  Both Papelbon and Wood are predominately fastball pitchers, both throwing their fastball more than 70% of the time but also attacking the strike zone as well.  Nathan, on the other hand, does not use his fastball nearly as much - despite having similar velocity - and does not exercise as much zone precision. 

 

    Nathan's secondary, or rather his out pitch, is his slider.  After setting up opposing batters with one of his two types of fastball, Nathan issues a sit-on-down, hard-sweeping slider that touches the upper 80's and incites numerous empty swings.  Even though it leaves a stream of opponents muttering to themselves on the way back to the dugout, of the slider-featuring closers, Nathan's slider hardly receives top honors.  That privilege goes to Brad Lidge.  Lidge, as you will see, has the dirtiest sliders in the league.  Referencing the fastball table above, Lidge throws his fastball only a quarter of the time while most tend to use it two-thirds of the time, but Lidge is so confident in his slider that he throws it over half of the time.  Thrown in the mid-80s, Lidge's slider has a .496 WHIFF average.  Another way to interpret this WHIFF is to say that every other swing is a miss.  Just to be able to make contact against Lidge's slider is a feat, so you better believe it isn't hit all that squarely.  The Reds' Francisco Cordero, the next best slider, receives 20% fewer swing-and-misses than Lidge's.

Name	SLD_WHIFF	USAGE	Zone%
B. Lidge	.496	55.2%	68.7%
F. Cordero	.396	28.1%	60.4%
J. Nathan	.373	30.6%	65.5%
K. Gregg	.261	21.2%	50.1%
B. Wilson	.260	25.0%	49.3%
B. Ryan	.209	22.8%	50.6%

 

    This is not to discredit Nathan's slider either: his slider still flirts with 40% of swings missing.  In fact, among all the pitches thrown at least 15% of the time, Nathan's slider has the eighth-best WHIFF. 

Name	Type	WHIFF	USAGE	Zone%
K. Wood	curve	.533	29.3%	57.3%
B. Lidge	slider	.496	55.2%	72.7%
T. Hoffman	change	.475	25.7%	67.2%
J. Putz	change	.441	34.8%	55.4%
B. Fuentes	slider	.417	15.8%	64.0%
F. Cordero	change	.415	15.9%	60.9%
F. Cordero	slider	.396	28.1%	60.4%
J. Nathan	slider	.373	30.6%	65.5%
J. Valverde	change	.364	33.9%	67.3%
F. Rodriguez	curve	.362	28.9%	58.0%
J. Papalbon	change	.347	18.7%	62.6%
G. Sherrill	curve	.338	23.8%	65.0%
B. Lyon	curve	.302	24.4%	66.7%
M. Rivera	cutter	.281	52.3%	70.2%
J. Valverde	fastball	.273	61.5%	73.0%
K. Gregg	slider	.261	21.3%	50.5%
B. Wilson	slider	.226	25.0%	49.3%
J. Papelbon	fastball	.221	79.3%	72.7%
B. Ryan	fastball	.220	77.2%	67.0%
B. Wilson	fastball	.214	74.9%	64.7%

 

    Kerry Wood's $20 million, two-year contract looks very accurate in relation to his stuff.  His fastball was the fourth-best among closers while his hammer-curve gets the honors for the best pitch on the market - better than Lidge's slider and better than the legendary Trevor Hoffman cottonball changeup.  Then again, his arm falls off like the Scarecrow's hey inners so you can't assume he will be available from April to October without some ailment.  Joakim Soria lives off of his fastball - one that isn't thrown particularly hard - but gets bats to miss nonetheless.  Without a complementary out-pitch, Soria may be in for a rough patch in 2009.  Brandon Lyon hardly makes a blip on the charts.  Although his curveball is of value (.302 WHIFF), his fastball has pus written all over it.  Short of Wood maintaining active roster status the entire 162-games, Nathan should retain the title of best closer in the AL Central.