A year ago, the Twins fairly high-octane offense
generated 4.8 runs per game in their first 10 games played. This season, the
Twins sputtered out of the gate averaging two full runs fewer in the same
amount of games. Let’s take a look at some of the reasons behind this scoring decline:
(1) No
free passes
This year’s model has been unable to remain patient and
selective – at least in contrast to last year’s team. In their first nine
games, the lineup has managed to draw just 22 walks – the fewest in baseball.
In comparison, through the first ten games last season, the team had coaxed 43
free passes off opposing pitchers. That’s 21 fewer base runners by virtue of
walks alone.
This appears to be the byproduct of pressing. As the
season progresses, hitters are compounding their issues at the plate by
attempting to hit their way out of the doldrums. Only,
we often see hitters stretch out the strike zone and put borderline pitches
into play – frequently to the pitcher’s delight. Being more discriminating at
the plate will lead to more base-runners and an inflation of a starter’s pitch
count.
(2) Not
capitalizing on favorable counts
This drought may lead one to believe that opposing teams
are thundering hellfire and strikes across the plate however teams are actually
avoiding the strike zone like the plague against the Twins. Minnesota has seen a
very low number of first-pitch strikes to date (55.6% vs. 59% league average)
and the seventh-lowest zone presence (46.2% vs. 48% league average). In theory,
this should lead to favorable counts for the offense – one in which hitters can
drive the ball or coax a walk -- yet those opportunities have been squandered.
When hitting ahead in the count, the 2010 Twins batted a
robust .303/.473/.486 – slightly above the league norm under those
circumstances. This year’s team is hitting nearly two hundred OPS points below
that benchmark with a .250/.373/.384 line when ahead in the count.
In the recent broadcasts, Bert Blyleven stated that he
believed opponents were pitching the Twins hitters’ backward more – that is,
throwing more breaking and off-speed pitches during typical fastball counts.
Observationally, this makes sense. I’ve witnessed several accounts when this
happened, catching a hitter way out in front of the pitch when they expected
something harder. Scientifically however, I am a tad more skeptical if this
truly is the case. Without being able to pull pitch f/x data for the entire
team on my own, I cannot corroborate or disprove Bert’s theory. At this point,
let’s leave it as the Twins are not producing at the rate they did last year
under the same conditions.
(3) Not driving the ball to the opposite field
From 2008 to 2010, the Twins blasted their way to the
plate by driving the ball the other way. Sure, it may be an approach that David
Ortiz thinks makes you “hit
like a little bitch”, but it worked for the Twins. In that duration, the
team amassed a .330 wOBA – the best in baseball. They piled up 1,226 hits when
going “oppo” (the most in that time) as well as 296 doubles (also the most). This
season, they’ve shown little pop going the other way. While they are struggling
to get hits to all fields, they have a muddling .252 wOBA with just two extra
base hits.
This stat is more of a barometer to fundamentally how the
team is hitting. When you see numerous opposite field shots, you know that the
hitters are sitting back and driving pitches outside. When you see the number
of hard-hit opposite field balls drop, there is likely a rise in pulled
groundballs as hitters tend to turn over on those pitches away.
With a park that plays big like Target Field does, you
will likely see opposing teams implement the same strategy the Royals’ Jeff
Francis did on Tuesday night and that is destroy the outer-half of the plate.
Hitters are not likely to drive that pitch to the opposite field for a home run
so damage will be minimal in a worst case scenario. In the best case, the
opponents simply roll their wrists over and put the ball on the ground. The
Twins hitters need to show they can drive that pitch with consistency to the
opposite field where they have demonstrated success in the past.
*****
On Tuesday, April 19th, Lindsay Guentzel (the former “Intern
Gal” at KFAN) is hosting a benefit for The Leukemia & Lymphoma Society at
Bayside Grille in Excelsior. In additional to watching the Twins take on the
Baltimore Orioles, there will be food & drink specials along with drawings
& prizes (I’ve got some DiamondCentric shirts and pint glass to giveaway)
all supporting a terrific cause. Please come out to the Lake
and join us!
