Over the
weekend, the Jays did something they were notorious for doing a season ago:
They swung early and often.
Last season,
the Blue Jays lineup swung at a reported 34% of first pitches, a rate that was
significantly higher rate than the rest of baseball (26% MLB average). Toronto’s
quick-strike policy proved to be offensively successful as they hit
.313/.323/.557 with 49 home runs (19% of their total) on the first pitch of an
at-bat. Because Minnesota’s pitching staff paced baseball with the most
first-pitch strikes at 62% the Twins’ style of attack played directly to the
strength of Toronto’s offensive methodology. Given these tendencies, it’s not
surprising that the Jays averaged a whopping 6.5 runs per game and taking six
of nine from the eventual AL Central champions.
One of the
more successful pitchers in this area was the Twins’ Opening Day starter Carl
Pavano. A year ago, Pavano was second in baseball to Cliff Lee in first-pitch
strikes with 68% and tied for third with 90% of one of his first two pitches to
a hitter becoming a strike. Due to their propensity to get up to the plate
swinging, the Jays owned Pavano in their three match-ups last year, smacking
him for 14 extra base hits including five home runs while going 27-for-76
(.355). And of course, many of those hits came on Pavano’s initial offering.
For Pavano
and the Jays lineup, the 2011 season started very much like it left off between
the two entities last fall. More than half of the Jays at-bats finished within
the first two pitches – mostly to their advantage. Toronto went 5-for-10 (.500)
with two home runs and a double on Pavano’s first two offerings, accounting for
seven of their runs.
The following
afternoon, the Twins sent Francisco Liriano to the hill. Liriano, not necessarily
known for his marksmanship, actually fared well last year in achieving strike
one 62% of the time. Unlike Pavano the night before who lived in the strike
zone, Liriano struggled to get his first-pitch over the plate. He threw in the
zone 11 times in his 22 match-ups (50%). Ultimately, Liriano leaned too heavily
on his fastball to start the count - throwing it 16 times on the first-pitch –
and the Jays hit two of those out of the park while knocking a triple another
time. Because the Jays waited out Liriano and forced him into throwing his
fastball, a reduced velocity fastball at that, they were able to get good pitches
to swing at.
Meanwhile on
Sunday, Nick Blackburn managed to navigate through the free-swinging lineup
without allowing a hit in his first-pitch. Blackburn regularly mixed in his
curveball and changeup – throwing it 11 times to start the count - keeping his
opponents from honing in on his fastball. This method of pitching backwards
proved extremely fruitful for Blackburn. In fact, the Jays were able to put just
three of Blackburn’s initial offerings into play – all of which were converted
into outs. Because of his ability to keep the Jays hitters at bay through five
innings, the Twins were able to conjure up enough offense of their own to gain
their first victory of the season.
Pavano
thrives against teams who try to remain patient and work the count. His ability
to pound the zone to get ahead in the count allows him to mix up his pitches
more frequently. Unfortunately, this strategy has shown it does not work
against aggressive lineups like the Blue Jays who take aim on early strikes. While
possibly slowed from not pitching winter ball this off-season (or potentially
even the early
signs of an injury considering his decreased velocity), Liriano was
cornered into throwing his fastball far too frequently early in the count.
Blackburn, on the other hand, cycled through his cache of pitches while keeping
the ball down in the zone. When the Twins square off against the Jays again in
May, the pitching staff should replicate Blackburn’s game plan.
