Surgery or rehab for Kyle Gibson?

Last night, not long after the Twins put Scott Baker on the DL with a strained flexor muscle, they  announced that 2009 first round draft pick Kyle Gibson was going to report to Fort Myers after he was diagnosed with a strained flexor muscle as well as a partial tear in his ulnar collateral ligament.

Gibson was a pitcher on the fast-track in the system, moving swiftly through the minors and performing extremely well along the way. Armed with a slicing two-seam fastball and an impressive change-up, it was easy to see what the six-foot-six right-hander was succeeding in Rochester and knocking on the door in Minnesota. He was the owner of the International League’s second-highest ground ball rate (57%), ninth-highest strikeout percentage (21.7%) and tenth-highest FIP (3.73). Now, it appears that his arrival to Minnesota will be delayed.

While a completely torn UCL would have necessitated Tommy John surgery right away and costing him 12-to-18 months of development, in the case of partial tears to the UCL, experts have often recommended a path of rest followed by rehab lasting 12-to-18 weeks total before re-evaluation. However, it is a song-and-dance fans have seen before – most recently with Pat Neshek – in which the staff and front office says Pitcher X is going to attempt to get some R&R before the inevitable date with Dr. New Elbow and wasting several weeks of time in the process. The question is how often do pitchers have success with this route?

According to an article by Baseball Prospectus’s Ben Lindbergh, the odds are not terrific. Lindbergh cites a Corey Dawkins’ article on the subject in which he wrote:

“The UCL does not completely heal on its own ever. Without surgery, the area is only stabilized by two methods. First, the elbow can be strengthened up to the point where the muscles take up the slack for the lack of ligament stability. The other method is that scar tissue is built up and the muscles are also strengthened. Regardless neither of these actually heal the tissue of the ligament, they merely control the symptom of instability.”

Lindbergh approximated that 55 percent of pitchers who have gone down the path of rest & rehab have eventually made an appointment to have their UCL replaced. That list includes the Neshek who went almost a year in his rehab before requiring Tommy John surgery that all but ended his career in Minnesota. On the other hand, Lindberg notes that the Angels’ Ervin Santana followed the R&R program and wound up returning to pitch without yet running back to the surgical table. In fact since his 2009 shutdown Santana has logged 388 innings, compiled a 25-18 record with a pristine 3.62 ERA and solid 306/116 strikeouts/walk ratio.

So there is hope for Gibson in that regard. But the other concern is that Gibson has less than optimal mechanics – the kind that puts added stress on this area. Even if the Twins rest him for a while to the point where he stabilizes his UCL, it is likely that his mechanics would jar that bugger loose again anyways.

Way back in December of 2008 – long before a forearm stress fracture sidelined him at the end of the 2009 season – Kyle Boddy of the now-defunct Driveline Mechanics website deconstructed Gibson’s mechanics. Boddy found that Gibson’s leg kick was wasted motion as he lowered it before driving forward, minimizing hip force and putting added exertion on his arm. What’s more is that Gibson brings his elbow to the point of hyperabduction while scap loading (drawing his pitching arm off of the driveline of home/second instead towards first). In the video below taken by 1500ESPN’s Phil Mackey in Fort Myers this spring, while the visibility is not perfect, you can see some of the elements that Boddy was referring to including the leg motion and scap loading of his pitching arm:

It’s a difficult decision, no doubt. If you opt for Tommy John now and you have lost a year or more to development at a critical time. On the other hand, if you attempt to rest and rehab, Gibson could lose a few months before requiring Tommy John surgery anyways. Now the waiting game begins with their top prospect.  

Scott Baker headed to the DL?

It appears that the Twins may be poised to lose Scott Baker for the second time in the season due to his elbow.

With two-fifths of the starting rotation already on the verge of needing replacement, following a Monday’s loss to the Red Sox, Baker told reporters that the team was going to evaluate his elbow and determine whether or not he needed another stint on the disabled list. According to the Star Tribune’s Joe Christensen, Baker said he “noticed a lack of velocity and less sharpness in his breaking pitches.”

For those watching the game, it certainly looked like Baker is not 100%.

Baker, who is typically in the low-90s, was sitting around 89 miles per hour when facing the Red Sox on Monday night. This became apparent during the middle stages of the game that the he looked flat when it came to amping up his fastball or snapping his slider over the zone. The sixth inning really proved to be his undoing and we witnessed examples of both of those problems. After a lead-off triple to Carl Crawford and several hard hit balls, David Ortiz deposited one of Baker’s 89 mile-per-hour fastballs into the upper deck of right field and Jarrod Saltalamacchia followed that by lifting a horizontal-moving slider into the plaza area (a 0-2 pitch, no less).  

According to Fangraphs.com pitch f/x warehouse, last night’s start was not his first tango without the high-grade heat. Since his July 5 outing against Tampa Bay when he left after five innings, there has been a noticeable decline in his velocity. Here you see that what pitch f/x categorizes as his main fastball (a two-seamer). The grey lines indicate the range of velocity while the green dots represent the average. What we can see is that Baker has been averaging 89-90 mph in his previous four starts when his elbow began barking again:

The drop in velocity in and of itself isn't necessarily a concern. What is striking is that the sudden downturn appears very similar to last season’s output. As you may recall, Baker’s 2010 was marred by the elbow injury that he attempted to play through - even receiving a cortisone shot – but ultimately needed to be shutdown and required offseason surgery to remove bone spurs.

Baker provided a bit of a scare in the spring when he reported a setback in his progress. While the bone spur surgery is viewed as a minor clean-up, the spurs have frequently led to further elbow damage. Spurs are generated by a loose UCL (the same ligament that snaps and then necessitates Tommy John surgery) and often the removal of spurs and chips can be a precursor to the eventual more intensive surgical procedure. Now, with the reports of his elbow discomfort flaring up again, it is time for the Twins to decide if they need to put their arguably best starter on the disabled list – and it is probably the right move to make.

Baker’s statements after the game leads one to believe that he is uncertain on where he stands. He noted that the pain was not as intense as it previously was but that he was struggling to get loose. He suggests that he could pitch through pain but, in all honestly, how much should the Twins push their top starter when the season is spiraling out of control fast?

By his own admission, he said he could “pitch with some discomfort” but conceded that pitching through that without being effective is counterproductive. While he hasn’t been a detriment (not like Nick Blackburn or Francisco Liriano anyways), Baker hasn’t been sharp. With the reality that the Twins’ chances of winning the division hover somewhere between slim and none, the organization needs to reassess Baker’s program. Furthermore, with a year left on his contract in addition to an option year for 2013, if the team wants to have Baker to return to pitch like he did from May through July when they have a chance to compete for the division next season, rest is likely the best course of action. 

Brian Duensing needs to get right against the right

Brian Duensing entered last night’s start owning the third-highest WHIP against right-handed batters (1.63) – only surpassed by San Francisco’s Jonathan Sanchez (1.64) and Detroit’s Phil Coke (1.77) – in 2011.

This is not any accident of sample size either - including last season the Twins’ left-hander has the fourth-highest WHIP versus righties among qualified starters. It is an amazing contrast considering he has managed to compile some impressive numbers against his southpawed brethren. Since 2010 he has a baseball-best 0.81 WHIP with the fourth-lowest .187 batting average when facing same-sided opponents.

When facing lefties, Duensing’s approach is to work the fastball in on the hands and then unleash his sharp slider off the plate down-and-away. Lefties have found this extremely difficult to hit hard – if they make contact at all - beating the ball into the ground 52% of the time in 2011. This means very few extra base hits. Pepper in his ability to get them to chase the running slider and it equates to one bad mamma-jamma.

Of course, the world is dominated by the right-handed and Duensing has certainly played the role of the submissive this season.

His plan of attack against righties seems strikingly similar but for his secondary pitches. In terms of his fastball, Duensing targets the outer-half of the plate. Rather than using his slider like he does for lefties, he favors his change-up instead. Because he prefers to use a backdrop slider – locating the pitch on the outer-half of the plate to righties – the offering sees less horizontal movement. This gives righties a better opportunity to make contact. The changeup, while effective, is not nearly the same swing-and-miss pitch that the slider is. Hence, in order to be successful Duensing needs to work down in the zone and get grounders.

He did that quite well last year, as you will see in the chart below, but the Twins starter is not achieving the same results on batted balls as he did in 2010. Rather than the high amount of grass-killers, hitters are squaring up on his pitches more, hitting them for ropes around the ballpark:

Duensing’s Batted Ball Distribution vs Right-Handers
	Line Drive%	Groundball%	Flyball%
2010	15.7	52.8	31.5
2011	20.8	40.5	38.7

Using mostly his fastball, he leaves the ball up in the zone far too frequently, even more so than last season:

There is a stark discrepancy between the location of his fastball to right-handers between this year and the last. In 2010 (on the right) Duensing was able to keep his down in the zone – a more difficult spot for righties to hit solidly. This season more and more of his fastballs have been up and over the plate – a much easier place to drive the ball.

That alone is likely reason enough to explain the significant drop in his groundball rate against righties. However, let’s factor in the placement of his most frequently used secondary pitch: the changeup.

While Duensing’s primary pitch to right-handers is his fastball, he mixes in a changeup to keep them off-balanced. Last season, he was far more prone to throwing his change down in the zone, getting weaker contact and likely inciting more hitters to turn over on the pitch. This season, similar to his fastball, the changeup has been up and over the plate. This means opponents would have a greater tendency to drive the ball.  

It was suspected that Duensing would find himself scuffling against the righties and witness regression. On the other hand, one had to wonder if he did have some of those rare intangibles (aggressiveness in the zone, efficient, bulldog-like battle tendencies) that continue to outperform where his peripherals would suggest he should be at. Unfortunately, it has been more of the former and less of the latter in 2011.

With Kevin Slowey putting together a string of good starts in Rochester, fans are beginning to clamor for change in the rotation. With a large deficiency in the standings to overcome, management cannot turn a blind eye to the struggles it much longer. While Nick Blackburn is likely the first candidate to be removed from the rotation, Duensing can’t be far behind. If he wants to remain in the rotation, he needs to keep the ball down in the zone against righties.

Easier said than done.

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Reminder: DiamondCentric is selecting two more winners for the 1991 World Series DVD collector’s set and a Game Six t-shirt today and tomorrow. Head over the Facebook page, “like” the status and consider yourself entered.

1991 World Series DVD/T-shirt Giveaway

My Dad worked as an engineer for the Burlington Northern railroad, running trains between the Twin Cities and Fargo, North Dakota. Because of this, he often worked odd hours – a few days on and a few days off. While I was growing up, on the days he was scheduled to make a trip north, he would set the VCR to tape (yes, tape) the local sporting events. We had numerous tapes of miscellaneous Twins, Vikings and even North Star games. 

Over the years, most of those copies were recorded over because of Cheers and Seinfeld finales. However, I was able to rescue one for the clutches of oblivion: The Game Seven of the 1987 World Series.

The ’87 World Series was special. Even as a first grader, we had the sense that it was an important moment. Having attended a catholic school, we were forced to wear uncomfortable uniforms that seemed like they were made entirely out of corduroy. When October rolled around, we were told we were free to wear whatever we wanted, provided it was Twins gear (nuns love baseball). For that stretch of time, our parents allowed to stay up late, watching the ends of the games that stretch past our bedtimes. When they scheduled the parade downtown, we were exempt from school, joining the rest of what felt like the world in the downtown canyon cheering on the players as they drove by in their convertibles. We high-fived random strangers in the street.  

Still, being just shy of seven years old, I never fully had a gauge on how the game actually went. You can see by the box score that it was fairly close but you don’t get the ebb-and-flow of how the game progressed like watching it unfold. That’s why I There were several missed calls that went in the Twins favor. There was hard-nosed plays at the plate – like Gary Gaetti pancaking Cards backup catcher Steve Lake who somehow held on to the ball. There was Frankie Viola cutting down the St. Louis offense with the aid of his changeup. This is why it has been one of my most cherished possessions – it has given me context to what I could not remember as a child.

The Game Seven ’87 tape has traveled with me to college and has made the move to every subsequent dwelling (and I moved a lot), receiving almost the same treatment as the Stanley Cup has. But, even with the delicate handling, the tape still wore down from use and age. So I had it converted to DVD this past spring. Prior to the season, I fired up the game once again to relive one of the most memorable games in Twins history.

While the ’87 series was special, it cannot compete with how the 1991 World Series influenced my views on baseball and life.

For me, a 30-year-old, and others near my age group, the 1991 series could not have happened at a more impressionable time in life. At 10 years old, you start to absorb everything around you. It is the age right before puberty – the stage when a human’s brain goes coo-coo haywire until their late 20s. The memories you form at 10 seem to be less jaded than everything else that comes right after it. For Upper Midwestern children around my age, we were taught valuable life lessons. Game Seven starter, Jack Morris, taught us how to be men. You simply take the ball inning after inning and not let go unless manager Tom Kelly is forced to remove it from your cold, dead hand. Kent Hrbek taught us that – in some respects – cheating is okay, so long as you do it with flair. Kirby Puckett reaffirmed our childlike belief that heroes can indeed come through and save the day at the last minute.

It is hard to believe those memories were formed 20 years ago.

With this in mind, A&E is releasing a pair of DVD sets to commemorate the 20^th anniversary of Minnesota’s second championship. In efforts to market virally, they have contacted various Twins bloggers and have extended giveaways of these DVDs. This is one more location in which you can possibly win Magic in Minnesota: Remembering the 1991 World Series Championship and The Minnesota Twins 1991 World Series Collector’s Edition. In addition to the DVDs, winners will also receive a Game Six shirt from DiamondCentric.

In order to qualify, head to the DiamondCentric Facebook page and “like” this link and we will select three winners at random. 

Will no move be a good move for the Twins?

Although the Denard Span-for-Drew Storen talks dominated the weekend, ultimately, like so many other deadline deals, nothing came to fruition.

For the most part, standing pat is a good thing. The Twins will keep their affordable center fielder/lead-off hitter as Span should give the lineup a much needed injection of vitamins O, B and P when he arrives on Tuesday in Anaheim. On the other hand, the front office missed an opportunity to buttress their bullpen with right-handed relievers.  

Part of the reason why Bill Smith left the swap meet without anything was because the market had a substantial markup on relievers. Arms like Koji Uehara, Mike Adams and Brad Ziegler were moved at fairly substantial costs. It is hard to envision the organization making a significant package for pitchers they would control for two years at most.

The Rangers traded a starting pitcher, Tommy Hunter, along with the powerful Chris Davis to obtain Uehara. Later in the day, the Rangers moved their fourth-ranked prospect by Baseball America, pitching Robbie Erlin, along with Frisco (AA) teammate Joe Wieland, to the Padres for Adams. Likewise, the A’s moved Ziegler – a player whom was supposedly not going to require a king’s ransom to acquire – and landed the slugging Brandon Allen and the left-handed reliever, Jordan Norberto.   

The Star Tribune’s Joe Christensen said that the front office called the Blue Jays and sought ex-Twin Jon Rauch, however, that deal never progressed. Given the fact that the Jays had just moved both Jason Frasor as well as Octavio Dotel in addition to the going rate of relief help, Toronto was likely seeking a sizeable return for Rauch.  

So the Twins exited the non-waiver portion of the trade deadline without addressing what might be their biggest area of need. Smith agreed that the emphasis of the day was trying to find help for the bullpen but was not overly concerned:

"That's been a target. We've been trying to add a piece or two in that bullpen that can help stabilize things, a little bit more experience, and unfortunately so far we haven't been able to do it. But again, the next phase of this starts this week with the waivers, and we'll be ready for that."

While Smith and company’s overall trade track record is spotty at best, they have been successful at bringing in help through the waiver wires. They originally grabbed Rauch in 2009 from the Arizona Diamondbacks and traded Kevin Mulvey for him. This past season they claimed the left-handed Brian Fuentes and flipped Loek Van Mil to Anaheim.

One thing to keep in mind is that from now until the August 31 waiver deadline, the Twins have 15 games against AL Central opponents – including nine against the Tigers and Indians. There is plenty of room to gain or lose ground within the next 31 days. If the team is able to make strides, the opportunity to add a bullpen arm still exists as teams like Oakland, Toronto and Tampa Bay will start funneling players through the waiver system.

Clearly, talent acquisition can be had post-July 31 and it is usually less expensive. But what happens if the Twins shit the bed completely in that time?

Selling is a bit more of a tricky proposition at the waiver deadline. Say the Twins manage to go 0-for-9 in those games, burying them deep in the bottom of the standings. They could send guys like Delmon Young, Jason Kubel, Carl Pavano or even Michael Cuddyer through the waivers. If or when a team claims them, the front office now is forced to negotiate within a 24-hour window with just one party instead of multiple teams. Suddenly, the return for the player has been decreased. If you look back at Baseball America’s Trade Central – dating back to 2004 – Jason Bay, then in AAA with the Padres, is about the only noteworthy return. In that sense the front office is gambling heavily that this below-.500 team is a legitimate contender.

Overall, the Twins did not improve their team at the deadline. At the same time, they didn’t hurt it either. Span and Justin Morneau should be returning in the next few weeks giving the offense a boost. They hung on to Kevin Slowey who could be rotation insurance or even a temporary right-handed arm out of the bullpen until someone else can be found.

All in all, the deadline silence is a reaffirmation that the club believes it can win the AL Central with the current assortment of players. 

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