The Front Three (through 26 games)
Prior to the start of the 2008 season, I analyzed the pitching of the potential front three starters - Baker, Bonser and Hernandez - by their 2007 Record of Opponents Batting. Hernandez was viewed in the media as the more successful pitcher with his 11 wins with Arizona (to Baker's 9 and Bonser's 8), but when judging from the opponents batting, it is clear that he was the most hittable with his opponents batting with a .870 ops (compared to Baker's .760 and Bonser's .807). Twenty-seven games into the 2008 season and we are experiencing a similar dynamic: by record, Hernandez is considered the most success of the three. This, even to your most casual statistician is an egregious representation of the truth. Once again, when you dissect into the peripheral numbers, you find that not only is Hernandez not the best starter, he and the Twins should thank their lucky stars that they have managed to milk five victories out of those games.
Livan Hernandez - 3-1 (5-1), 5.05 era
| pa | runs | hits | hr | bb | k | sb | cs | avg | obp | slg | ops |
| 154 | 22 | 45 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 0 | 2 | .310 | .338 | .490 | .827 |
Because of an injury to Kevin Slowey and Francisco Liriano requiring additional seasoning in the minors as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, the Livan Hernandez signing has been beneficial for the Twins. But with the emergence of Nick Blackburn as well as the success of Brian Duesing and Kevin Mulvey in triple-A, the free agent acquisition may be increasingly regrettable with every subsequent below average start by Hernandez. Hernandez got off to a fast, successful start winning his first three. Over the course of those 21 innings, an average of seven innings per start, Hernandez posted a 2.57 era with six strike outs and 1 walk - a Game Score average of 57. Pundits praised his mix of pitches and ability to get batters out without striking them out. Opponents were batting .263/.268/.325. More importantly, Hernandez did not surrender a single home run in that duration, a critical facet to his winning. However his success was waning and his ability to maintain that level of output sharply declined. In his last three starts, he managed to only accrue 14.2 innings (4.7 inning average per start) while averaging a Game Score of 32. Admittedly, these were against very good hitting teams of Texas, Oakland and Tampa Bay (Tampa Bay? Did I just say that?) but the same tricks that worked so well against Kansas City twice and Los Angeles were not creating the same results. Hernandez's era ballooned from 2.57 in his first three starts to 8.59 in his last three while he was tagged up for 6 home runs as batters accumulated a .369/.417/.619 batting line.
Hernandez is essentially turning his opponents in to Raul Ibanez (who is hitting .296/.339/.487 with Seattle). This batting line, while disappointingly high, is actually lower than the one that led to his .500 winning percentage with Arizona. The Twins offense has aided Hernandez by providing him with 4.41 runs of support while Hernandez has averaged a Game Score of 44. In three of the five games the Twins have won while Livan was pitching have come in spite of less than quality starts by Hernandez (a Game Score below 50). As the season progresses, the Twins offense will have to sustain the 4 runs or more of support if Hernandez continues to pitch like the last three games rather then the first three.
Boof Bonser - 2-4 (2-4), 3.75
pa runs hits hr bb k sb cs avg obp slg ops 151 17 35 3 9 22 3 0 .250 .293 .379 .672
Don't let the 2-4 losing record fool you, Bonser has probably been the best pitcher in the Twins' cadre starting pitchers. In his first 19 innings of the year in three starts, Bonser issued just two free passes while striking out 12 leading to just six earned runs (an average Game Score of 56). Opponents hit just .253/.273/.387. The road to victory was detoured for Bonser thanks to zero offensive production and bullpen meltdowns. Even though he only allowed three earned runs in each of those two starts, the team's offense managed to score Bonser just two runs total in those two games. In his third start of the season Bonser was once again the recipient of minimal run support (two) but limited the Royals to just three hits on the way to six shutout innings for his first win of 2008. In his recent last three starts Bonser has somewhat stumbled thanks to the potent offenses of Tampa Bay, Oakland and Chicago coupled with the lack of run support. His Game Score average in those outings slipped to 48, slightly below quality. Bonser compiled 17 innings and allowed nine earned runs. Boof found himself battling more baserunners as he walked seven in those games. In those last three starts, Bonser's opponents hit .254/.315/.369. Again the Twins offense was no where to be found, scoring just six times in those innings and they were shutout by Oakland's Chad Gaudin.
Overall, Bonser's .672 ops is a significant improvement over the .807 opponents hit off him in 2007. This year, batters are hitting very similar to Ivan Rodriguez (.255/.302/.388) off of him. Bonser has a minor league resume that suggests he can maintain this sort of output for the remainder of the season, however, he will most likely end up having an ops between .750-.800. Nevertheless, if Bonser continues to pitch in the same manner that he has been throwing through his first six starts (3.62 FIP) and his run support increases from its appallingly low 1.70 runs per game (well below the team average of 3.86), he will certainly be the benefactor of wins as the season wears on.
Scott Baker - 2-0 (4-1), 4.50
| pa | runs | hits | hr | bb | k | sb | cs | avg | obp | slg | ops |
| 122 | 15 | 30 | 6 | 5 | 27 | 2 | 0 | .256 | .287 | .436 | .723 |
His last start notwithstanding, Baker has also performed much like the staff ace. Not only is his 27 strikeouts and 5 walks leading the Twins rotation, but he is currently second in the American League with a 5.40 strikeouts-to-walk ratio (Cleveland's Cliff Lee leads with an unearthly 16.00). In his fourth start of the season, Baker dueled Cleveland's Paul Byrd for seven innings, giving up only one run and striking out seven, issuing one walk and scattering five hits. Despite not being the pitcher of record, that April 20th Game Score of 70 has been the best pitched game so far this season for the Twins.
The 4-1 record the Twins have in Baker's starts is partly skewed because he has absconded with the highest run support (7.02), the envy of the pitching staff, but it is not as if Baker has needed all of those runs: up until his start against Texas, he had allowed 3 or fewer runs per start. Up until that Texas game, Baker threw four consecutive games with Game Scores 50 or higher. Though it would appear that his home run total of 6 (5th in the American League) in just 122 plate appearances would be alarming, especially considering he gave up only 15 total last season, it should be noted that they came split evenly between two games against the homer-friendly White Sox and Tigers. Because Baker has been very good at not allowing base runners (1.16 whip), all 6 of his home runs given have fortunately been solo home runs minimizing the potential impact of damage. If the nagging injuries do not persist, Baker might take his rightful spot as the number one starter in the Twins rotation.
