2009 Pitcher Appraisal: Nick Blackburn

N. BLACKBURN (33 Starts)
xFIP | MLB Rank	4.78	65th
BABIP | +/- MLB Avg	.303	+1.3%
Runs Support | +/- MLB Avg	5.09	+9.43%
GAME SCORES	Decisions	No-Decisions
Game Score 50 or Greater:	10-3	3-4
Game Score 49 or Lower:	1-8	1-3
Average Game Score Per Start:	49
Season High/Low:	72 (5/10, 6/18 & 7/5)	12 (5/5)
Game Scores over 90:	0
Game Scores 80-89:	0
Game Scores 70-79:	3
Game Scores 60-69:	8
Game Scores Below 40:	9
Record of Opposing Batters:	.290/.324/.444 (768 OPS)
Offensive Equivalent:	Jose Lopez

You can say this: With Nick Blackburn pitching, you know what you are going to get.

If he finished with a game score of 50 or higher, the Twins typically won (.650 winning pct).  Conversely, if he finished his outing with a game score of 49 or below, the team typically lost (.153 winning pct).  Also working to his advantage was that the offense provided him an above-league average amount of runs support, however, this fact did not help him swing any “lucky wins” (victories obtained when game score was below 50) when he did not perform up to snuff (the Twins won just two of his 13 starts that were 49 or below).

As a control pitcher, he had plenty of peaks and valleys throughout the season, depending on his defense and fastball’s movement.  He started the season very strong.  Through his first 17 starts Blackburn posted a 2.94 ERA and a low 1.27 WHIP.  In June, I noted that both his home run-to-fly ball ratio (5.9 HR/FB at the time) and BABIP on groundballs (.205) were bound to regress closer to the mean as the season progressed.  True enough, Blackburn suffered through a stretch of bad baseball.  In his next nine starts, Blackburn turned in a 7.74 ERA along with a swollen 1.88 WHIP thanks to an increased amount of fly balls ricocheting off of the seats (10 HR).  In this time he strained to work ahead of hitters and received little movement on his fastballs, resulting in far more elevation of his pitches.  Nevertheless, in his final start in August, he made some adjustments that improved his approach and managed to hold a 3.07 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP and, most impressively, a 10.0 K/BB ratio in his last seven starts of the year. 

One of the biggest areas of improvement in his sophomore season was his pitching away from the Dome.  In 2008, Blackburn was 3-8 with a 4.97 ERA while opponents .311 outside of the 612 area code.  This season, the record still feels the same (4-7) but he had a far better 3.89 road ERA (better than his home ERA of 4.18) and kept opponents to a .285 batting average.

Blackburn’s ability to match his previous season’s production is uncanny.  Consider these two season’s of stats side-by-side: 

	GS	W-L	IP	ERA	WHIP	BAA	HR/9	FIP
2008	33	11-11	193.1	4.05	1.36	.291	1.07	4.40
2009	33	11-11	205.2	4.03	1.37	.293	1.09	4.37

This mirrored effect is downright scary but there is something that is uneasy about it as well.  It is as if there is this weird, perfectly balanced state that if anything in his environment changes, all hell could break loose.  It seems that the Twins have provided him with enough defense to keep every in this state.  If the Twins subtract some defense in 2010 in place of offense, particularly at the infield positions, Blackburn could see these numbers start to head north if fewer balls are converted to outs.  However, if the team opts to add defensive stalwarts at short, second or third, the combination of all of his starts on grass in Target Field with rangy infielders supporting him could push him to a 15-win pitcher. 

Essentially, he’s the pitching equivalent of Cub Foods.  There’s nothing flashy about him, but he’ll give you innings in bulk and is inexpensive.