Without much
time to get re-acclimated to his new-slash-old position, general manager Terry
Ryan addressed a critical need for the team. Yes, it isn’t as a sexy move
similar to the one that brought JJ Hardy to the Twins two years ago at this time but the
pending signing of Jamey Carroll is a step in the right direction.
Carroll, a
soon-to-be 38-year-old utility infielder, is not an appetizing addition at
first blush. He has little power, little range and little experience as a
full-time player. What he does offer is unparalleled patience at the plate and
sure-handedness in the field. It is only after you inspect his track record and
his skill set that you should recognize that he is what the Twins need for 2012
and quite possibly the most cost-effective way of filling that need.
Defensively,
he has seen a sharp decline in the amount balls he can get to. Carroll stepped
into the shortstop role on a more regular basis with the Dodgers the past two
seasons when Rafael Furcal was sidelined. His play has been described as solid
and able to convert plays within the typical zone but because of his advanced
age, he lacks the coverage to make plays on those borderline grounders
(something that Hardy excelled at). By Fangraphs.com’s fielding metrics, among
those shortstops with 1000 innings the past two seasons, Carroll registered 46
plays made out of the zone. Only the aged Orlando Cabrera and Edgar Renteria
made fewer out-of-zone plays. Of course, compared to the flotsam that was
trotted out to short last year (see: Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Trevor Plouffe, et al),
Carroll’s ability to convert on the simple plays should be somewhat of a boon
to the Twins starting rotation – one that had a groundball-heavy tendency last
season (45.3% ground ball rate).
Offensively, Carroll
is the epitome of a scrappy hitter, making him what has recently become the
expected archetypical Twins addition. Without much power to speak of, he exercises
an extremely
selective approach at the plate, swinging at just 35.4% of those thrown his
direction since 2009 – a lower rate than everyone else besides Bobby Abreu and
Brett Gardner. For people who grew tired of Joe Mauer watching far too many
first-pitch strikes sail by, Carroll will give you more fits. Last season he
swung at just 8% of first pitch offerings, tying him for the lowest amount of
times he took the bat off of his shoulder with former Twin, JJ Hardy.
For the most
part this technique has served him well. In the on-base percentage department,
Carroll has been able to coax a high percentage of walks. His 10.5% walk rate
is the sixth highest among second basemen and the highest among shortstops over
the past three seasons. Because of this, Carroll has amassed a .364 on-base
percentage since 2009, trailing only Ben Zobrist, Dustin Pedroia and Chase
Utley in that department. To put that in perspective, among Twins players only
Joe Mauer, Jim Thome and Justin Morneau were able to put up a higher on-base
percentage that Carroll in that span.
Needless to
say, Carroll makes pitchers grind through at-bats - his 4.27 pitches-per-plate
appearance last season was the sixth-highest in baseball – yet there are signs
that while his patience equals a walk it may also be costing him some run
production at the same time.
Over the past
three seasons, Carroll has come to the plate with runners on base 513 times and
he’s managed to drive in just 64 runners – the lowest amount among those with
500 or more plate appearances with runners on base. Without any power to speak
of – his .314 slugging percentage is the lowest in that group as well – he is
forced to rely on his superior trait, patience. This has led to instances of
him attempting to extend the inning by walking (a good thing, to be sure) but
unable to bring home any of those runners on his own (questionable).
So he doesn’t
drive runners but that’s not what the Twins are signing him up to do. He’s
there to extend innings and wear pitchers out.
As mentioned
above, Carroll has very little power to speak of. His isolated power number of
.056, a measurement that shows how adept a hitter is at extra base hits, has
been the seventh-lowest in baseball since 2009. His approach is that of a
slasher, a hitter who goes to the opposite field and up the middle. Last year,
almost 80% of his hits came when going that direction as you can see the
cluster of his hits falling in center or right field:
The “taking-it-the-other-way”
approach is one that the Twins organization has encouraged for years and, although
it has occasionally
kept players from realizing their full potential in Minnesota, in Carroll’s
case he has been born and bred for that. At times he will dive over the plate
to drive the ball on the outer-half to right and on others he will inside-out a
pitch on his hands. Here are a handful of his swings that exemplify that style:
The biggest
question that has been circulating is why would the Twins commit so much of
their very finite payroll room in 2012 towards Carroll? The Star Tribune
highlighted the details of the forthcoming deal:
“Carroll's contract is for two years and $6.75 million guaranteed. It includes a $250,000 buyout and an option for 2014 that becomes effective if Carroll gets more than 400 at-bats. If he passes that threshold, he can accept $2 million and play for the Twins in 2014 or turn it down and become a free agent.”
While the $3.37 million per year may seem absurd, particularly
when you consider he has never made more than $2.5 million a season and is
closing in on 40 years old, according to Fangraphs.com’s player valuation
system, Carroll has provided at least twice that amount of value in each season
since 2007. Last season, he gave the Dodgers $9.8 million in value. Without
question, Carroll - even if his role is just that of a utility safety net - should
be able to at least match his contractual value in a limited role.
In the end, Carroll’s
signing is a stabilizing signing. The Twins were hemorrhaging last year in
production from the shortstop position and he has been a constant at both
second and short for the Dodgers these past two years. He could very well wind
up fulfilling the Matt Tolbert role on the team while challenging the middle
infield incumbents to improve or move aside this spring. If injuries crop up,
he is a sound player to replace someone for an extended period of time rather
than inserting someone not prepared for the job.
