In his recent
Star Tribune chat, Joe Christensen
speculated that the Twins would target free agent pitcher Hisashi Iwakuma this
winter:
Christensen’s
statement may be based on some internal rumblings or it may be a residual of
the Twins pursuit of him last offseason. Last winter, the Twins came in a
distant second to the Oakland A’s for the rights to negotiate with Iwakuma and
his agent. Minnesota offered $7.7 million to the Rakuten Golden Eagles but was thwarted
when the typically miserly A’s submitted a bid of $19.1 million.
After
Oakland secured the rights, the negotiating part took a wrong turn for the Bay
Area organization. According to reports, Iwakuma and his agent were seeking a “Barry
Zito-like” contract (seven-years, $126 million) while Billy Beane went all Moneyball on them and offered a
four-year, $15.25 million deal. Unable to work out a deal, Iwakuma went back to
the Golden Eagles for the 2011 season.
Iwakuma,
now an outright free agent this winter negating the need for a posting fee, has
hired
a new agent and figures to be one of a handful of talented pitchers on the
market. Outside of CC Sabathia and CJ Wilson, Iwakuma likely falls in the same
category as Edwin Jackson and Mark Buerhle (minus the experience). If he prices
similarly to those two, he could be looking at a contract worth $8-to-$11
million per year.
The
30-year-old right-handed pitcher has some legitimate sink which would incite plenty
of ground balls. Like the rest of the Twins’ cadre of pitchers, he fits the
bill as a pitch-to-contact type with his 89-to-92 mile per hour sinking
fastball. He comes equipped with a variety of pitches and speeds, using a
curve, slider, splitter and a shuuto. The results in his Nippon career have
been solid – a career 3.25 ERA with a 107-69 record while strikeout out 18.4%
of batters faced.
Pitch
F/X wizard Mike Fast
broke down Iwakuma’s 2009 World Baseball Classic performance and found that
the majority of his offerings were about average but that he had an above-average
splitter:
“His split-finger fastball averaged 86 mph, and he got three inches of hop and eight inches of tail on the pitch due to spin. Adding in the effect of gravity, the splitter dropped about nine inches relative to his four-seamer. He threw the splitter 31 percent of the time to left-handed batters and 20 percent of the time to right-handed batters. It was his main strikeout pitch, accounting for five of his nine strikeouts in the last three games of the WBC. Batters swung and missed at 34 percent of his splitters, which is an excellent mark.”
With that
vast repertoire and an out-pitch like his splitter, his ceiling could be like
that of the Angels’ Dan Haren, who has average velocity but throws a variety of
pitches and has a devastating split-finger fastball.
The
question is: Would he be a good fit with the Twins?
Without
a doubt, the Twins need to address the depth of their rotation. Last year’s
team floundered when several members were sidelined over long periods of time
(Baker, Blackburn and Liriano) and were hurt even further when those who were
expected to perform simply did not (Liriano and Duensing). This put a lot of stress
on a weak bullpen. In theory, Iwakuma, who has worked deep into games in Japan,
throwing 48 complete games in his career, would be a decent solution.
But
that doesn’t necessarily make him the ideal solution either.
The
second concern is regarding targeting another pitch-to-contact arm. While I
have no qualms with the method, it only works provided the right infrastructure
is in place. Last season showed that when the infield defense is substandard,
those types of pitchers who allow balls to be put into play suffer heavily. If
the team is not willing to upgrade defensively around the diamond, pursuing an
arm that is capable of missing bats is likely a better investment at this
point.
Finally,
how much does the Twins front office trust their scouting staff when it comes
to pulling talent out of Japan? The ballad of Tsuyoshi Nishioka should already
give them pause. Sources say that the scouting department was none too thrilled
by Nishioka’s skills overseas but yet the staff signed off on his ability
before handing him a $9.25 million deal. Would they actually return to that
well so soon after Nishioka’s disastrous year?
In
the end, the Twins will likely be looking for another starter and Iwakuma will
be a name you hear repeated again this offseason.
