Running themselves out of first place?

The Twins have developed a reputation for being a team that hustles all over the base paths, implementing an aggressive approach, and taking an extra 90 feet or more when the opportunity presents itself. More than that, they’ve often been lauded as doing so intelligently. According to an audit of the team’s baserunning on BillJamesOnline.net, the Twins’ results on the bases have radically changed from the prior two seasons.  

In 2009, the Twins scampered around the bases fairly liberally. Through their efforts, the team netted 42 additional bases going first to third, second to home and first to home while avoiding outs. Factoring in the 72% success rate of their stolen bases and the 2009 team gained approximately 63 bases above average. The year prior to that, the Twins netted 49 additional bases through hustle and another 18 by way of theft. This gave the Twins a positive 67 bases. This was good enough for sixth and third in the American League in those consecutive seasons. This season, the Twins have posted a -20 mark, the second-lowest total in the AL and their worst since the disappointing 2005 season.

Minnesota Twins

1st to 3rd   2nd to Home 1st to Home DP Bases BR BR SB Net Year Adv Opp Adv Opp Adv Opp Opp GIDP Taken Outs Gain Gain Gain 2002 72 222 105 186 25 68 1148 121 175 21 +33 -45 -12 2003 81 238 128 208 25 59 1273 139 186 28 +31 +6 +37 2004 63 218 105 172 25 65 1157 130 168 44 -6 +24 +18 2005 59 243 109 195 18 62 1089 154 153 46 -65 +14 -51 2006 87 275 131 218 24 58 1193 163 186 47 -10 +17 +7 2007 89 240 119 198 26 64 1159 148 154 60 -55 +52 -3 2008 82 245 139 233 28 66 1254 144 211 47 +49 +18 +67 2009 94 328 130 208 33 72 1265 146 197 41 +42 +21 +63 2010 48 161 68 113 20 49 625 95 90 26 -32 +12 -20 Totals 675 2170 1034 1731 224 563 10163 1240 1520 360 -13 +119 +106 31% 60% 40% 12%

    (via billjamesonline.net)

What’s more is that this drop in production on the bases could correlate with the depressed scoring totals overall. Consider this, in 2008 and 2009, the Twins plated more than 5 runs per game. This year, the scoring total has dropped to roughly league average at 4.6 runs per game. If you look over the past several years, a pattern emerges:

Twins on the Bases:	Net Gain on Bases	Runs Scored Per Game
2004	+18	4.8
2005	-51	4.3
2006	+7	4.9
2007	-3	4.4
2008	+67	5.1
2009	+63	5.0
2010	-20	4.6

The explanation for such a downturn in the 2010 Twins’ Net Gain involves the higher volume of Twin-killings. While averaging a 12% double play rate from 2002 to 2010, the team is currently posting a 15% rate this season. These two-for-ones have erased numerous runners and muted potential rallies. The simple solution to this problem is to actually get more aggressive, such as starting runners when groundball-prone hitters like Joe Mauer are batting in double play situations.

Likewise, the Twins coaching staff have failed on several occasions to realize the limitations of their players. Jason Kubel leads the team with six outs on the bases, two of which were the results of Kubel getting burned at home plate. 

While aggressiveness on the bases is still very much a part of this year’s team’s DNA, the outs on the bases has adversely affected the scoring. Part of the blame goes towards not altering their approach in double play situations and not understanding their personnel’s limitations (a few of Kubel’s six outs on the bases is due because of poor decisions to send him). Once again, it goes back to being intelligent on the bases. Improving the efficiency by avoiding outs would greatly assist in bolstering the bottom-line.