Seeing as that this new year is just three days old and we are still a month away from pitchers and catchers flying down to the warmer climate to trot off their holiday weight, it is probably very premature to make these predictions. Even so, in no particular order, here are four things I expect to happen in the 2011 season:
Denard Span will be on base more.
After posting
his career low on-base percentage in 2010 (.331), the Twins center fielder
should be primed to rejuvenate that mark this year.
When pitchers
adjusted to Span’s patient approach by buzzing strikes in on the first pitch
more frequently, the left-handed lead-off man was often put in debt in the count.
This led to fewer walks overall as his rate decreased for the second straight
season, lowering from 10.4% to 8.5%. Nevertheless, because of his keen eye at
the plate (his 18.5% out-of-zone chase rate is the fifth-lowest in baseball
since 2009) and his ability to make contact (90.9% contract rate since ’09,
seventh-highest), Span will continue to exercise judicious decision-making in
the batter’s box moving forward.
But that wasn’t
the only factor towards his reduced on-base percentage.
Span, a
habitual line drive/groundball hitter, witnessed his batting average on those balls
diminish greatly in 2010. Since more of his batted balls went to gloves in
2010, Span had a fair share of hits taken away from his totals and thus decreasing
his on-base percentage.
|
Batting
Average on Balls In Play
|
2009
|
2010
|
Career
|
|
Groundballs
|
.287
|
.223
|
.254
|
|
Line Drives
|
.763
|
.677
|
.701
|
In all, this led to a 59-point decrease in his
batting average on balls in play, significantly influence his overall numbers. Part
of this BABIP decline may have to do with his minor yet potentially impactful alteration
with his hand
position, bringing the bat closer to his body at the beginning of the year.
This led to an inordinate amount of grounders in the season’s first-half. Later
in the year, it appeared that Span was getting his hands further away from his
body, resulting in more line drives as the season progressed.
As noted
above, Span maintains terrific plate discipline skills. Likewise, because of
his ability to utilize the spacious center field area at Target Field with a
high percentage of line drives, Span is poised to be the catalyst at the top of
the order that the Twins envisioned when they signed him to a long-term deal.
Danny Valencia will encounter the
proverbial “sophomore slump”.
This one isn’t
that hard to foresee. After all, his batting average on balls in play was at an
inflated .345 – a hearty fifty points higher than the league average. But that’s
not the reason that I anticipate some decline in his numbers.
Often, communication
and scouting reports move at various speeds throughout the league. Someone who
can’t handle breaking pitches might be discovered immediately and word spreads
like wildfire. Other times, certain holes and tendencies are not exposed until after
the season. Take Denard Span for example. It took nearly two years for teams to
pepper the strike zone early in the count in order to put Span at a
disadvantage and it kept him off the bases in 2010.
In Valencia’s
case as the 2010 season progressed it became clear that, while demonstrating
great plate coverage, he
had a soft spot in the zone: down and in.
Of course,
this doesn’t automatically mean Valencia will have a down year, just that he will
struggle more this coming season. To be sure, the Twins third baseman has shown
that he is a monster when it comes to hitting up and out over the plate. In
fact, according to Inside Edge his .203 well-hit average on pitches up in the
zone was the second-best in baseball behind teammate Joe Mauer. Unlike some
overeager rookies who tend to yank that pitch, Valencia uses the “big part” of
the field – hitting 21.3% of balls in play to center field.
Jim Hoey will have a Grant Balfour
circa-2008 emergence for the Twins.
Okay, this
one is not based on anything remotely scientific, but bear with me on this.
Both Hoey and
Balfour are cut from the power-pitching ilk, born from the same lineage that
loves lighting up radar guns. Likewise, both had various arm injuries
sidetracking promising careers. Balfour required Tommy John surgery in 2005 at
the age of 27 while Hoey had his foray with Tommy John in 2004 at 21 years old.
More recently, while attempting to correct his career path, a tear in his
labrum required additional surgery for Hoey.
In Balfour’s
case, the Twins decided to cut ties with the right-handed Aussie after the 2005
season, shortly after his date with the surgeon. He would sign a minor league
deal with the Reds only to be selected off the waivers by the Brewers at the
end of the ’06 season and rehab in their system. Before being called to Milwaukee,
the Brewers shipped Balfour to Tampa for Seth McClung in the middle of the ’07 season.
It was there with the Rays in ’08 that Balfour regained his health. That year,
Balfour, tossing a 94.6-mph fastball, carved through opponents, striking out 82
in 58.1 innings of work and leading to a very impressive 1.54 ERA.
The savvy
Rays front office targeted a talented yet damaged product and received an
amazing value as Balfour has become an integral part of the Tampa bullpen the
past three seasons.
|
Minor
League Comp.
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
|
G.
Balfour
|
10.1
|
3.4
|
0.6
|
|
J.
Hoey
|
10.3
|
4.4
|
0.5
|
Many skeptics
question Hoey’s control, particularly given his walk rate in the last two
seasons. Certainly, his 5.9 walks per nine innings is un-Twins-like however
this is more likely a byproduct of his recovery from labrum surgery as prior to
that Hoey averaged just 2.5 walks per nine innings. Like Tommy John, recovering
from labrum surgery can be a long, tedious process. Fans may recall Jesse Crain’s
road back after a similar surgery in 2007 in which he didn’t appear fully recovered
until the second-half of the 2009 season.
If the Twins
coaching staff can help him regain his control this spring, Hoey could be a big
contributor in the bullpen this coming season and beyond.
Scott Baker will be the second-best
pitcher in the rotation.
I know what
you are thinking, “If that is true, the 2011 season ended up being an
unmitigated disaster”, but hang on. Scott Baker is actually much better than
advertised.
Since 2008,
Baker has held one of baseball best strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.39 K/BB, 11th-best),
showing both the ability to avoid walking hitters and striking them out when
necessary. These are the foundations of a very good starter: No walks, high
amount of strikeouts.
Of course, that
is just a part of the pitching equation, the other part happens when hitters
put the ball into play.
Because he
likes to work up in the zone and above it, hitters find it easy to get
underneath Baker’s offerings. This is why he is a predominately fly ball-type
pitcher. This is not a problem in and of itself but there were two factors that
influenced his season in 2010.
In 2008 and
2009, Baker had an outfield defense that had both Carlos Gomez and Denard Span
behind him. This past year, with Gomez gone, not only did Baker have Delmon
Young and Michael Cuddyer covering more real estate in Target Field, when
Justin Morneau’s season-ending concussion required Cuddyer to relocate to first
it was Jason Kubel who was pressed into duties in right field, further diluting
the defensive talent.
This means
that more balls found grass and shot gaps than in previous seasons:
|
|
BABIP on Fly Balls
|
|
2010
|
.198
|
|
2009
|
.139
|
|
2008
|
.119
|
To compound
the problem, in the middle of the season, Baker revealed that he was having
tendonitis issues in his elbow. It was this that likely caused
him to drop his release point. With the lowered release point, we see flattening
of his fastball and some loss of command in the zone leading to more hard hit
balls.
If Morneau returns
from the concussion and Cuddyer able to return to his normal position, this
should improve Baker’s outfield defense over the assortment at the end of last
sesaon. (Of course, platooning in the speedy Jason Repko in Baker’s starts would
be an ideal alignment.) Likewise, since
he opted to have a minor procedure in the offseason to correct his elbow issue,
Baker will likely return to his pre-tendonitis release point where he had much
better command. Together, this should reduce the amount of hits surrendered and
leave the 29-year-old righty with his low walk, high strikeout stuff.
