tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-378921132024-03-14T11:14:54.691-05:00Over The BaggyUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger524125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37892113.post-84874818564175584262012-02-19T23:32:00.002-06:002012-02-19T23:42:50.865-06:00A new home<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="81" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYMxKcbSXLYMCEkuDhEt6tuXJvZ5KsbvaTUJUda5eRKrBOBiyBigFPpTk1C9hW0rdEBrryGkuiCT_ThNjYIAwyicp7MMMH8y2b4AaUvUGkciNFieNZLJmfPg3_Y81NQa53-g4-kg/s400/twins-daily-by-600.gif" width="400" /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I started
this one-room crap-shack of a blog all the way back in 2006 out of boredom and
in need of a baseball outlet. The original intend was not to entertain or
attract a significant audience or even advance a writing career. I simply
wanted to keep myself busy with my favorite passion. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">You see, we
had just had my daughter Avery and had taken a new position in my company that
would send me on the road quite often. Without much to do in far-flung Marriott
Courtyard in some largely suburban community, I saturated myself with as much
baseball knowledge as I possibly could on statistics and how they can be
applied to the game I loved so much. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But enough
about what I do in hotel rooms alone. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Frankly, I
enjoyed doing the research – asking myself questions and seeing if I can use
data to determine answers or provide insight towards the game. Somewhere along
the way, other people began to enjoy my research or writing or whatever because
people starting crowding in to read my posts on a regular basis. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I was fortunate
enough to meet some outstanding Twins bloggers in John Bonnes, Nick Nelson and
Seth Stohs (among others) only to discover that we all had the same passion
and/or self-destructive behavior for providing free Twins content on the
Internet. We formed TwinsCentric to pool our collective talents together to
provide content to the Star Tribune (also for free). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But, man,
what a hassle for you, the reader, right? I mean, each morning, stops at my
site, Seth’s site, Nick’s site, that weird site with photos of farm animals
dressed like people, the Star Tribune’s TwinsCentric site and then, if you had
time, John’s site. With all that surfing you figure we must be costing your
companies a ton in lost wages as you spend from 8 AM to 1:28 PM -each day going
from Twins blog -to-Twins blog.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So, while the
Occupy Wall Streeters continue to tear down big corporations, we at
TwinsCentric plan to assist the poor, defenseless coporations – at the very
least, by attempting to get their lost wages back. Starting today, the
TwinsCentric team is launching a new endeavor, <a href="http://twinsdaily.com/">TwinsDaily.com</a>,
your source for not only informative and entertaining posts from your four
favorite Twins bloggers but also a place to <a href="http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?222-Announcing-Twins-Daily">discuss and
debate with other Twins fans</a>. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">With forces
joined, we figured we could at least save the good people of Cyberspaceville
the annoyance of making multiple stops along the information superhighway. Now
you can lap up all the Twins news, content and chatter you want in one spot -- just
like an Old Country Buffett with an open bar. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So, oddly
enough, I am going to miss this shack. It’s the one I took care of for six long
years and honestly, not very well. After all, I never actually gave it a real
URL. Still, I will not be more than a click away as I will be posting at my new
location within the Twins Daily site (<a href="http://twinsdaily.com/blog.php?8">found
here</a>). Additionally, all my archived posts will remain up here at the old
site just in case you want to scroll through the posts and tell me how wrong I
was back in 2010 when I called Glen Perkins washed up (plenty of crow eaten on
that one). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Thanks again
for stopping by this old girl. See you at the <a href="http://twinsdaily.com/content.php">new home</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">****<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Twins Daily: <a href="http://www.twinsdaily.com/">www.TwinsDaily.com</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Twins Daily
on Facebook: <a href="http://www.facebook.com/pages/Twins-Daily/278788618854034?sk=wall">http://www.facebook.com/pages/Twins-Daily/278788618854034?sk=wall</a></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Twins Daily on Twitter: <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/TwinsDaily">https://twitter.com/#!/TwinsDaily</a></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">My Blog: <a href="http://www.twinsdaily.com/blog.php?8">www.TwinsDaily.com/blog.php?8</a></span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com539tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37892113.post-77765038584992135922012-02-17T00:02:00.000-06:002012-02-17T00:02:33.168-06:00Will Francisco Liriano rebound in 2012?<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Without a doubt, there will be plenty of storylines to monitor during spring training this year. One of the bigger ones that you should keep an eye on in Fort Myers is Francisco Liriano’s fastball.</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Injuries took him out of the 2011 season but it was clear that the southpaw was not the same pitcher as he was the season before. Between a decrease in velocity, an inability to locate his fastball and regularly falling behind his opponents, Liriano posted a career high in walks (75) and his second-worst ERA of his career (5.09). Perhaps <a href="http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2011/02/twins-decision-to-go-year-to-year-with.html" style="color: #0b478d; text-decoration: none;">a bit predictably</a> based upon his delivery and past history, he succumbed to injuries midway through last season and missed a significant amount of time. Suddenly, not signing Liriano to a long-term deal became one of Bill Smith’s finest moves as a GM.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">For his part, Liriano, who was admonished for not following through with offseason workouts before last season, opted to participate in winter ball – the same platform that helped him regain his form two seasons ago. Unfortunately, the results were not quite as enticing this year as they were in the past. He threw 24.2 innings and posted a 25/16 K/BB ratio in winter ball. This outcome was a distant cry from his 2009 winter league performance in which he reintroduced himself to baseball as one of the more filthy pitchers in baseball. That year in 20 innings Liriano posted a 30/5 K/BB ratio on his way to becoming one of the Twins more dominating starters in the 2010 regular season.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Admittedly, each pitch thrown between November and April means very little in the grand scheme yet the signs are not wholly positive at this juncture. What can Liriano do to become the pitcher the Twins so desperately need in 2012?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">There’s no question that he still has the nasty slider that can catapult him towards being a Cy Young-caliber pitcher, however, as I detailed following <a href="http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2012/01/liriano-makes-start-in-dominican-league.html" style="color: #0b478d; text-decoration: none;">Liriano’s first outing this offseason in the Dominican</a>, the main question is whether he can command his fastball.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">According to BrooksBaseball.net’s pitch f/x data, Liriano’s fastball was vastly different from the 2010 predecessor:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="background-color: white; border-bottom-style: none; border-collapse: collapse; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; color: #333333; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"><tbody>
<tr><td colspan="4" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: #0f243e; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-image: initial; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-style: solid; border-left-width: 1pt; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1pt; border-top-color: windowtext; border-top-style: solid; border-top-width: 1pt; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0in; padding-left: 5.4pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; padding-top: 0in; width: 6.65in;" valign="top" width="638"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: white;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">Liriano’s Fastballs (2010 vs 2011)<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-image: initial; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-style: solid; border-left-width: 1pt; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1pt; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: none; border-top-width: initial; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0in; padding-left: 5.4pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; padding-top: 0in; width: 119.7pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<br /></div>
</td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-left-width: initial; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1pt; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: none; border-top-width: initial; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0in; padding-left: 5.4pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; padding-top: 0in; width: 119.7pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">MPH<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-left-width: initial; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1pt; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: none; border-top-width: initial; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0in; padding-left: 5.4pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; padding-top: 0in; width: 119.7pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">Called Strike<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-left-width: initial; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1pt; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: none; border-top-width: initial; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0in; padding-left: 5.4pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; padding-top: 0in; width: 119.7pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">Whiff<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: #ffff66; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-image: initial; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-style: solid; border-left-width: 1pt; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1pt; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: none; border-top-width: initial; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0in; padding-left: 5.4pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; padding-top: 0in; width: 119.7pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">2010 Four-Seamer<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td><td style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: #ffff66; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-left-width: initial; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1pt; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: none; border-top-width: initial; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0in; padding-left: 5.4pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; padding-top: 0in; width: 119.7pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">94.6<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td><td style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: #ffff66; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-left-width: initial; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1pt; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: none; border-top-width: initial; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0in; padding-left: 5.4pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; padding-top: 0in; width: 119.7pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">17.6%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td><td style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: #ffff66; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-left-width: initial; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1pt; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: none; border-top-width: initial; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0in; padding-left: 5.4pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; padding-top: 0in; width: 119.7pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">15.1%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: #ffff66; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-image: initial; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-style: solid; border-left-width: 1pt; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1pt; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: none; border-top-width: initial; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0in; padding-left: 5.4pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; padding-top: 0in; width: 119.7pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">2010 Two-Seamer<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td><td style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: #ffff66; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-left-width: initial; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1pt; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: none; border-top-width: initial; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0in; padding-left: 5.4pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; padding-top: 0in; width: 119.7pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">94.3<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td><td style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: #ffff66; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-left-width: initial; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1pt; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: none; border-top-width: initial; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0in; padding-left: 5.4pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; padding-top: 0in; width: 119.7pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">21.2%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td><td style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: #ffff66; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-left-width: initial; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1pt; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: none; border-top-width: initial; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0in; padding-left: 5.4pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; padding-top: 0in; width: 119.7pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">13.1%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-image: initial; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-style: solid; border-left-width: 1pt; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1pt; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: none; border-top-width: initial; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0in; padding-left: 5.4pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; padding-top: 0in; width: 119.7pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">2011 Four-Seamer<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-left-width: initial; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1pt; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: none; border-top-width: initial; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0in; padding-left: 5.4pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; padding-top: 0in; width: 119.7pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">92.4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-left-width: initial; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1pt; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: none; border-top-width: initial; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0in; padding-left: 5.4pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; padding-top: 0in; width: 119.7pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">17.2%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-left-width: initial; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1pt; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: none; border-top-width: initial; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0in; padding-left: 5.4pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; padding-top: 0in; width: 119.7pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">10.8%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-image: initial; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-style: solid; border-left-width: 1pt; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1pt; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: none; border-top-width: initial; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0in; padding-left: 5.4pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; padding-top: 0in; width: 119.7pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">2011 Two-Seamer<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-left-width: initial; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1pt; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: none; border-top-width: initial; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0in; padding-left: 5.4pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; padding-top: 0in; width: 119.7pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">92.5<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-left-width: initial; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1pt; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: none; border-top-width: initial; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0in; padding-left: 5.4pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; padding-top: 0in; width: 119.7pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;">14.7%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-left-width: initial; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1pt; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: none; border-top-width: initial; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0in; padding-left: 5.4pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; padding-top: 0in; width: 119.7pt;" valign="top" width="160"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">12.3%</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In addition to the decrease in velocity, notice the sharp decline in the amount of called strikes with his two-seamed fastball. This is the pitch he uses most often against right-handed opponents. This may explain why his walk rate when facing righties jumped from 8.5% in 2010 to 12.8% in 2011. Having scouted a couple of Liriano’s outings in the Dominican, you can see that he was still struggling to place the pitch in the Caribbean – specifically his two-seamed fastball against right-handers.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Outside of Scott Baker, the Twins have little in their rotation of being an elite pitcher. In order to reach that echelon which the team so desperately needs, Liriano, besides being healthy, needs to see an improved fastball in 2012. </span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37892113.post-21151338688195449262012-02-15T23:28:00.000-06:002012-02-15T23:28:16.325-06:00Twins hitting coach looking to fix team's approach at the plate<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Hitting coach
Joe Vavra recently shared some ideas behind what was causing the drought at the
plate with the <a href="http://www.twincities.com/twins/ci_19963836">Pioneer
Press’s Tom Powers</a>. Plenty of factors played into the team’s offensive
ineptitude but for those who did make it to the plate, Vavra felt that the
approach was fundamentally lacking:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">“Some couldn't grasp that they couldn't pull every pitch or
that sometimes it was better to take a few. As a result, they struggled.</span>”</blockquote>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Despite some fans objections to the contrary, </span><b style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Joe Vavra</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> comes off as a smart,
intelligent and process-oriented hitting coach. I have personally never had the
opportunity to meet with him however in interviews and articles about him, he
comes off as someone who has a keen understanding of the art and science of
hitting. After all, as stated in this column and in previous interviews, he has
a history of checking data to assist in his techniques and teachings – and advanced
viewpoint coming from a position that has historically been of the “see ball,
hit ball, spit chew, little bingo, how now brown cow” ilk.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">In that particular piece, Vavra does not outright say what
constitutes “struggling” or rather which metric he uses to gauge that, however,
he cited batting average a number of times. Because pull-hitting often takes a
toll on a player’s average, you can see why the Twins would want to discourage
this practice. Using more of the field is an indication that a hitter is able
to handle more pitches in more zones. For example, if a right-handed hitter gets
too pull-happy and attempts to turn on a pitch on the outer-half, odds are they
will be pulling something towards the shortstop rather than “going with the
pitch” to right field. In theory, opposing teams will recognize this and attack
the outer-half more which will incite a player to turn-over on the pitch more
often and drag down his batting average. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">This more or less seems to be what Vavra is saying happened
to the 2011 squad, particularly the young right-handed hitters.</span><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #222222; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Given that
the Twins cycled through a greater number of younger hitters through the lineup
that hit from the right side (Trevor Plouffe, Luke Hughes, Drew Butera, Joe
Benson, etc) Vavra’s theory makes sense. Not surprising, the data indicates
that the right-handers turned on 29.9% of their balls in play – a sizeable jump
from the 24.3% pull rate in 2010. As such, righties hit .237 as a group, their
lowest in the past three seasons:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4XHdZc1EDIcyx_GJCyJaxIjafsRu8ZfiCucRdd_9_ehx5BI-RRvP-UcVGpTSzptNoNXBVoJOgVUbRhbqhSVs1LRnS_i7pKdZavleKUEYf5mQORLRIrB-K1hlcVcYUT3_MLFX2ag/s1600/RHB_Pulling.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4XHdZc1EDIcyx_GJCyJaxIjafsRu8ZfiCucRdd_9_ehx5BI-RRvP-UcVGpTSzptNoNXBVoJOgVUbRhbqhSVs1LRnS_i7pKdZavleKUEYf5mQORLRIrB-K1hlcVcYUT3_MLFX2ag/s1600/RHB_Pulling.jpg" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Now, the
batted ball data shows the outcome but it clearly does not show intent. That is
something that hitting coaches can detect and video can reveal a bit more on
what a hitter was trying to do when being pitched away. While a near 30% pull
rate is high, there may be more outer-half pitches that hitters attempted to
pull but directed them towards center instead of right field. What data might
show some of that is the precipitous drop in using the opposite field
successfully over the past three years. The idea is that if a hitter is focused
on going oppo, the result should be better:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvKbRRj_dmNkj0o5e4a2RaZupYAW6otGVNrbG0HTaxwWEAncQMmy-Ui__YVcfoOtYjpXbhunIW8cvv7-LWBJdHUM8vCkercJ5g68SVQF_8GyJY4kdBLQFvIX9mIQ2Enp5QO5fxKg/s1600/RHB_Oppo.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvKbRRj_dmNkj0o5e4a2RaZupYAW6otGVNrbG0HTaxwWEAncQMmy-Ui__YVcfoOtYjpXbhunIW8cvv7-LWBJdHUM8vCkercJ5g68SVQF_8GyJY4kdBLQFvIX9mIQ2Enp5QO5fxKg/s1600/RHB_Oppo.jpg" /></a></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">As you can
glean, the 2011 Twins were considerably less successful at going the opposite
direction than their predecessors. If the 2011 lineup was indeed less focused
on driving shots to right field, it is reflective in those splits. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">So,
redirecting those players who may have grown too pull-happy like Trevor Plouffe
or Danny Valencia back towards the big part of the field may help bolster their
batting average but what of the power? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">As I’ve
written about extensively here, <a href="http://www.overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2012/01/team-building-exercise.html">Target
Field plays more favorably for pull hitters</a>. This offseason, Josh
Willingham and Ryan Doumit were added to the lineup and both hitters showed
clear pull tendencies over their careers. In Willingham’s case, he moved to
Oakland and grew increasingly pull-happy to combat the spacious park. Although
he set a career high in home runs (29) that came at the expense of over 20
batting average points and a significant amount of on-base numbers. If the team
wants the home runs added to the repertoire, they should encourage Willingham
to keep the same approach he had as an Athletic. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Not long ago,
the Twins tinkered with Hardy’s approach at the plate, suggesting he was
getting too pull-happy. Hardy had incorporated the opposite-field mentality to
his approach which the <a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2011-03-19/sports/bs-sp-orioles-jj-hardy-0320-20110319-24_1_hardy-brother-orioles/3">Orioles
hitting coach told him to forget</a>. Not only did Hardy’s batting average
remain at a high level after <a href="http://www.overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2011/08/changes-have-made-jj-hardy-powerhouse.html">going
back to being a pull hitter</a>, he also jacked 30 home runs. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Will Vavra
allow Willingham and Doumit to retain their approaches? Of course it is up to
the individual but it sounds as if Vavra had his way, it sounds like he would
discourage the pair from this method. According to Tom Powers’ column, the
Pioneer Press scribe posited the question if power hitters should try “to yank
the ball” to which Vavra replied “I’d challenge them on that”. The reasoning
behind Vavra’s contention was never clarified but I would speculate that it has
to do with what amounts to a batting average drain.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Clearly, talent
certainly played a key factor in the degeneration of the batting average from
the right-side for the Twins but the inexperience and the pull-heavy tendencies
also contributed. The old adage “hit it where it’s pitched” applies. Still,
pulling the ball is not as big of an enemy to the offense as some would think. <o:p></o:p></span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37892113.post-38938190612061092302012-02-06T07:28:00.000-06:002012-02-06T07:28:46.556-06:00Vacation<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Over the Baggy posts will be on a brief hiatus for the next week and change as I indulge in cool cervazas by the beach in Mexico. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/9n5G0qFBsHM" width="400"></iframe></span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37892113.post-3183288324109341602012-02-03T00:18:00.000-06:002012-02-03T00:18:29.232-06:00Danny Valencia: 99 problems but a hitch ain't one?<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">According to <a href="http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/138298924.html">Joe Christensen</a>,
Danny Valencia has been working hard all offseason at improving his overall
game. In addition to trying to repair his shoddy defense, he has used video to help
him make a few changes to his offensive approach:</span></div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">“Valencia, 27, also studied video of his at-bats and decided
to make a subtle change with his hands. Last year, he would trap his hands
toward his body, forcing a longer loop before his swing. Now, he is bringing
his hands straight back, giving him a straighter path to the ball.</span>”</blockquote>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Here’s a look at what Valencia has seen:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUc_FF23vVZYwPePaFnMhhEpSETeO1SHW3gvG8vEO4NyhyE0l115dmLHjazRXQuPlWyMEt9GtA6tZYB8FZCiVX6spQOLOYF2PDbU9KEgNJ8XVfafqDJwSQtwo2M3UM0v6n62brBQ/s1600/Valencia_2011_Front+View.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUc_FF23vVZYwPePaFnMhhEpSETeO1SHW3gvG8vEO4NyhyE0l115dmLHjazRXQuPlWyMEt9GtA6tZYB8FZCiVX6spQOLOYF2PDbU9KEgNJ8XVfafqDJwSQtwo2M3UM0v6n62brBQ/s1600/Valencia_2011_Front+View.gif" /></a></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Focus on his hands. Notice that during his loading process,
he drops his hands while bring the bat inside then brings his hands back up to
his launch position. This action is what causes the “longer loop” as
Christensen describes it.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Compare Valencia’s loading process to that of fellow
right-hander and former teammate Michael Cuddyer: <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWLYJNRc2QJ-cnqfLKI8GrobtSDZ9L7mH27o8P-nrP8Svuhr2cVt0K_OkCBWmaxLuFTg4SFd4gDml08rt1ulEW0vM5m5ckm_hJjz7JbipT60T7InizCq3w18DXX9wevsWGUWKytQ/s1600/Cuddy_2011_Front+View.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWLYJNRc2QJ-cnqfLKI8GrobtSDZ9L7mH27o8P-nrP8Svuhr2cVt0K_OkCBWmaxLuFTg4SFd4gDml08rt1ulEW0vM5m5ckm_hJjz7JbipT60T7InizCq3w18DXX9wevsWGUWKytQ/s1600/Cuddy_2011_Front+View.gif" /></a></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Rather than moving his hands towards his body, Cuddyer simply
shifts his set back to the launch position, maintaining the same linear plane
and creating the “straighter path to the ball.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">From the side view, this will better highlight Valencia’s subtle
hitch in comparison to how level someone like Cuddyer keeps his hands:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNN2mxj1DwJKfwav1C4B60YTbJbtUo9Okj31BQxdk7_0s1ifdx9Tcnpzhv8_S8JRUAvORiaNmZItkpvGPVMVjJXkFmfzMvFr-t5Xy5GYUGUKr8qWswK6H_qJ1rSoyqOf9LvK09XA/s1600/Valencia_2011_Side+View.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjNN2mxj1DwJKfwav1C4B60YTbJbtUo9Okj31BQxdk7_0s1ifdx9Tcnpzhv8_S8JRUAvORiaNmZItkpvGPVMVjJXkFmfzMvFr-t5Xy5GYUGUKr8qWswK6H_qJ1rSoyqOf9LvK09XA/s1600/Valencia_2011_Side+View.gif" /></a></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYR8Rn9HDJwqjqt4lltpNzE3i1dFDavpTn6U-rLaw-DllAcGszn2QDwX0LynSzFQLiTG5cUiLx-5NOIdw95dKlsiqpBnCddO_fK08V4oMN1YBuLVl5GUKW68CFPi4CTNVlYLhCCQ/s1600/Cuddyer_Sideview_2011.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYR8Rn9HDJwqjqt4lltpNzE3i1dFDavpTn6U-rLaw-DllAcGszn2QDwX0LynSzFQLiTG5cUiLx-5NOIdw95dKlsiqpBnCddO_fK08V4oMN1YBuLVl5GUKW68CFPi4CTNVlYLhCCQ/s1600/Cuddyer_Sideview_2011.gif" /></a></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">What is interesting about this is that throughout his career,
Valencia has had this hitch in his swing – at least it was a trait he featured dating
back to at least <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PUvXoORMhec">2008 in the
Arizona Fall League</a>. It is clear that he has a hitch but this approach
worked well for him during his time in AA (.287/.353/.483 in 539 plate
appearances), AAA (.289/.322/.421 in 484 plate appearances) and at the major
league level last year (.311/.351/.448 in 322 plate appearances). Of course,
when you come off a season like Valencia did in 2011, obviously the performance
demands some answers. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Did his hitch
derail his season? Were big league pitchers better at exploiting this than their
minor league counterparts? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Delving into
his batted ball numbers, you see almost mirror images of his batted ball
output. The difference lies in the quality of ball put into play (a much higher
well-hit average in 2010) which likely led to the large batting average on
balls in play discrepancy:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="background: #0F243E; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: text2; mso-background-themeshade: 128; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 68.5pt;" valign="top" width="91">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #0F243E; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: text2; mso-background-themeshade: 128; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 71.6pt;" valign="top" width="95">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: white; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-themecolor: background1;">LD%<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #0F243E; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: text2; mso-background-themeshade: 128; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 71.6pt;" valign="top" width="95">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: white; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-themecolor: background1;">GB%<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #0F243E; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: text2; mso-background-themeshade: 128; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 71.6pt;" valign="top" width="95">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: white; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-themecolor: background1;">FB%<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #0F243E; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: text2; mso-background-themeshade: 128; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 74.05pt;" valign="top" width="99">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: white; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-themecolor: background1;">IF/FB%<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #0F243E; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: text2; mso-background-themeshade: 128; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.8pt;" valign="top" width="85">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: white; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-themecolor: background1;">Well-Hit
Avg<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #0F243E; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: text2; mso-background-themeshade: 128; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 57.65pt;" valign="top" width="77">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: white; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-themecolor: background1;">BABIP<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 68.5pt;" valign="top" width="91">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">2010<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 71.6pt;" valign="top" width="95">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">18.8%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 71.6pt;" valign="top" width="95">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">43.0%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 71.6pt;" valign="top" width="95">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">38.3%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 74.05pt;" valign="top" width="99">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">11.2%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.8pt;" valign="top" width="85">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">.264<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 57.65pt;" valign="top" width="77">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">.345<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 68.5pt;" valign="top" width="91">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">2011<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 71.6pt;" valign="top" width="95">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">17.8%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 71.6pt;" valign="top" width="95">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">45.9%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 71.6pt;" valign="top" width="95">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">36.3%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 74.05pt;" valign="top" width="99">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">14.8%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 63.8pt;" valign="top" width="85">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">.222<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 57.65pt;" valign="top" width="77">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">.275<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><span style="font-size: x-small;">(via
Fangraphs.com & myInsideEdge.com)</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Plate discipline-wise,
the story remained the same as well. There was a minor growth in a tendency to
expand the strike zone and his contact/strikeout rate both made movement in the
wrong direction but none of those indicators are suggestive of someone
struggling through a season:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center">
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="background: #0F243E; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: text2; mso-background-themeshade: 128; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 68.5pt;" valign="top" width="91">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #0F243E; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: text2; mso-background-themeshade: 128; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 71.6pt;" valign="top" width="95">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: white; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-themecolor: background1;">Out
of Zone%<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #0F243E; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: text2; mso-background-themeshade: 128; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 71.6pt;" valign="top" width="95">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: white; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-themecolor: background1;">Contact%<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #0F243E; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: text2; mso-background-themeshade: 128; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 71.6pt;" valign="top" width="95">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: white; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-themecolor: background1;">Swinging
Strike%<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 68.5pt;" valign="top" width="91">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">2010<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 71.6pt;" valign="top" width="95">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">25.3%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 71.6pt;" valign="top" width="95">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">82.7%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 71.6pt;" valign="top" width="95">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">6.9%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 11.65pt; mso-yfti-irow: 2; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 11.65pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 68.5pt;" valign="top" width="91">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">2011<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 11.65pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 71.6pt;" valign="top" width="95">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">27.6%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 11.65pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 71.6pt;" valign="top" width="95">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">79.5%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 11.65pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 71.6pt;" valign="top" width="95">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">8.6%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><span style="font-size: x-small;">(via Fangraphs.com &
myInsideEdge.com)</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">So, there was
not a spike in ground balls or a great inflation in fly balls that would lead
someone to believe opponents were more successful at keeping him off-balanced
in 2011. Same goes for his plate discipline numbers. What’s more is that with
the exception of a slight shift in more hard-velocity pitches thrown to him
(fastballs, sliders) over off-speed stuff (change-ups, curves), Valencia saw
almost the same palate of pitches.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Nevertheless,
it is hard to ignore how quickly his hit rate dropped between the two years and
how his ability to handle right-handed pitching disappeared as he went from
hitting .280/.303/.410 against them in 2010 to .252/.303/.352 in 2011. Was it
because of his longer swing? Probably not. Will adjusting it help? It’s very
possible. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Without
anyone in the system pressing him at third, the Twins went out an <a href="http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2012/01/can-focused-burroughs-be-useful-to.html">acquired
a small insurance policy in Sean Burroughs</a>. Burroughs, who had a solid defensive
reputation and a decent minor league track record, may be the safety net for
Valencia in 2012 – or a left-handed platoon option if Valencia cannot solve
right-handers.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Based on his
prior successful output with the hitch (or longer loop in his swing) combined
with the batted ball and plate discipline data, it is difficult to pinpoint his
2011 woes on that part of his swing so changing that aspect is not a magic
bullet for him to rebound in 2012. Still, if he’s able to adapt to the new
approach, this should give him a quicker swing (perhaps covering the inside
portion of the plate where he’s had some struggles). And, if he maintains a similar
line drive rate in 2012, it would not be unexpected to see his BABIP increase
and with it, his overall numbers too. <o:p></o:p></span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37892113.post-70264373905923066962012-01-30T00:44:00.000-06:002012-01-30T00:44:15.228-06:00Should Ben Revere play center?<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Before the spikes have even hit the turf at Hammonds Stadium, manager <a href="http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/blogs/138216069.html" style="color: #0b478d; text-decoration: none;">Ron Gardenhire has gone on the record</a> as saying Denard Span is his 2012 center fielder.<o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
</div>
<blockquote style="background-color: white; color: #333333; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 12px; padding-left: 48px; padding-right: 48px; padding-top: 0px;">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial;">"[Span's] going to lead off and be my center fielder. That’s my expectations. If somebody were to tell me that he’s not able to do that, then we’d have to ad lib. But if Denard comes in healthy, then he’s my center fielder, there’s no questions to me about that."</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
</blockquote>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Apparently, Ben Revere, who performed admirably in center in Span’s absence, was just keeping the position warm for the incumbent.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">There is probably little doubt that Gardenhire is basing some of his decision on the fact that Revere has a substandard arm. From the wisdom of the crowd, Fangraphs.com polled their readers to compile a collective scouting report on all players. Their contingency gave Revere’s Arm Strength a 4. This was by far the worst rating among all center fielders and a 90-point difference between him and the leader, Rick Ankiel. Also viewed critically was his release: the Fangraphs.com crowd said that his release rated as a 28, the third-lowest mark in that category too.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It doesn’t take advanced metrics to recognize that Revere has a weak arm. It takes a bit more scouting acumen to see that he has a long arm throw which delays his release. Combine these two factors and it equates to extracurricular activity on the base paths.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial;">The question is what did Revere’s skill set cost the Twins and does it preclude him from being the starting center fielder?</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">According to BillJamesOnline.net, the website which warehouses a vast majority of the Baseball Info Solution’s defensive data, they peg Revere’s arm as the worst among qualified center fielders in 2012 (minimum 700 innings) – adding data to the fan’s observations. He managed to accumulate 3 kills (throwing out runners) but allowed 63.9% of runners who had an opportunity to advance to the next base did so during his watch.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" height="361" src="http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Arms_(2012).jpg" style="float: none !important;" width="405" /></span></div>
<div class="photo" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; width: 405px;">
</div>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Here’s what we know about Revere: He’s fast. Because of this, we might also assume that he gets to many balls quickly, even those that fall to the ground. If he can get to more balls quicker than slower center fielders like, say, Rick Ankiel, one would think it would have some effect in preventing coaches from sending runners around the bases. Until we have other data available like how quickly an outfielder gets to a ball or how much velocity someone throws or how quick their release is, we are simply not going to have a comprehensive overview of how to judge someone’s arm. Still, looking at how many times opposing teams have had the opportunity to advance a base on him (89) versus how many times they decided to move up (56), you have to reach the conclusion that Revere’s lack of an arm has an adverse affect even if he is able to get to the ball quicker than the rest.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Allowing runners to move up has been the crux of the argument for those wanting to keep Revere out of center. After all, in addition to patrolling the deepest part of the field, a center field has one of the longest throws to home plate among the three outfield positions and has a hefty chore when throwing to third base as well. In Revere’s case, opponents took note of his arm strength last year and used it to their advantage, wheeling around second-to-third or third-to-home. Understandably, if opposing teams recognize this opening, they will like walk through it at a high rate and put themselves in scoring position whenever possible.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">That idea certainly makes a manager cringe but, ultimately, it might be the wrong thing to focus on when deciding who should man center field. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Moving Revere to left field definitely cuts down the distance on the throws, giving him an opportunity to cut off runners advancing to third or home. On the other side of the coin is the fact that Revere can cover ground like no other. Last year, Revere finished tied for third in Plus/Minus among center fielders with a plus-twenty (+20) mark. That means he was 20 plays better than the average center fielder which added up to 11 runs saved.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" height="341" src="http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Range_(2012).jpg" style="float: none !important;" width="405" /></span></div>
<div class="photo" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; width: 405px;">
</div>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">What this boils down to is that by the Plus/Minus system, it is much more valuable to prevent hits than it is to allow the opposing team the opportunity to move into scoring position.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In terms of his arm, Revere has spent the offseason trying to improve in that area. Revere told 1500ESPN’s <a href="http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/twins" style="color: #0b478d; text-decoration: none;">Judd Zulgad and Joe Anderson</a> that he has been throwing “long toss with a football” to build strength. And while he may be able to add a few MPHs, his long arm action still needs to be pared down to shorten his release time. Additionally, there are no real precedence set to say how much a player’s arm can develop over an offseason so there is no way of telling how much Revere can improve his arm.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">To be sure, Denard Span is no slouch in center himself, especially in his 500-plus innings there last year. While he was not quite at Revere’s catch ‘em all caliber, he managed to save six runs which ranked him as the 11th best center fielder according to the P/M system. In the end, moving Revere out of center may play towards his lack of arm strength however it might wind up costing the Twins some outs when he is no longer patrolling the spacious center at Target Field. </span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37892113.post-21408228381427295082012-01-27T00:10:00.000-06:002012-01-27T00:10:06.585-06:00Mauer needs a solid foundation<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Joe Mauer has spent a substantial amount of time over the past few weeks on various media outlets attempting to erase memories of his contributions (or lack thereof) to the 99-loss season.</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">He’s working hard. He’s putting on weight. He’s eating Wheaties. He’s saying his prayers. He's drinking nothing but unicorn milk. He’s doing the Rocky IV training in Russia. He’s P90X-ing while Tae Bo-ing. Etc. Etc.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Merited or not, he has earned himself a reputation among the media types as being soft. KFAN’s Dan Barreiro had an on-going bit entitled “How Long Would Mauer Milk It?” alluding to various other afflictions (rug burn, paper cuts, etc) and the time the Twins catcher would spend on the bench. This also leaked from being a local gag to a more national sentiment. In fact, Chicago Sun-Times columnist <a href="http://www.suntimes.com/sports/cowley/10256624-452/reading-the-sox-their-rites.html" style="color: #0b478d; text-decoration: none;">Joe Cowley</a> recently wrote that “Joe Mauer is the guy in the foxhole who’d rather push someone else onto the grenade than risk his hair getting messed up.” That’s a pretty damning view of his character, especially coming from a visiting columnist who does not see the inner workings of the clubhouse last year.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">True, while he may have ticked off some teammates and writers with his spa treatment in the whirlpool facilities, when he was on the field his performance was substandard for the bar that Mauer had set. Clearly, one of the biggest mitigating factors behind this was his health. It is unfortunate that he has had to jump through these hoops to explain that he wasn’t 100% last year but that comes with the $23 million dollar territory.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">During an interview on<a href="http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/twins" style="color: #0b478d; text-decoration: none;">1500ESPN with Tom Pelissero and Phil Mackey</a>, Twins hitting coach Joe Vavra discussed what he perceived as causes for Mauer’s disappointing 2011 season and the effects the various injuries and ailments had on his performance. Because of his leg injury, Vavra said that the Twins catcher had troubles “getting off his backside and favored his legs a bit.” This, he said, led to more head movement as well as him being “unable to turn on the ball.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Vavra, a <a href="http://www.twinkietown.com/2011/12/28/2665343/joe-vavra-q-a-with-brandon-warne" style="color: #0b478d; text-decoration: none;">very astute hitting coach</a>, said he first noticed the change in Mauer late in the 2010 season when he showed less of a tendency to turning on the ball. The subsequent offseason surgery and inability to fully recuperation likely exacerbated his leg issues into the “bi-lateral leg weakness” that sprung up. Without much of a foundation, Mauer struggled to pull the ball in addition to lifting the ball in the air.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As anyone who has spent one iota of time watching the Twins knows, Mauer’s bread-and-butter has been his ability to go the other way. Not only is he able to drive the pitch on the outer-half to left field, he often uses that inside-outside to muscle pitches on the inner-half the other way as well. After all, he’s a .436 career hitter when going oppo and, during his magical 2009 MVP season in which he smacked 28 home runs, a high percentage of his home runs were actually hit to left field (11 opposite field home runs).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Even though he made his millions feasting on left field, he still showed the potential to sock one to right every now and then. In 2011, that tendency decreased considerable. As you can see, Mauer’s ability to pull the ball has diminished some in comparison to the past several years and compared to his career too:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" height="190" src="http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Mauer_Pulling.jpg" style="float: none !important;" width="300" /></span></div>
<div class="photo" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; width: 300px;">
</div>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Similarly, Mauer had troubles lifting the ball to center as well, showing little power when smacking a pitch back up-the-middle:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" height="190" src="http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Mauer_Center.jpg" style="float: none !important;" width="300" /></span></div>
<div class="photo" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; width: 300px;">
</div>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Visually, his batted ball spray chart tells the same story. In 2009 and 2010 Mauer placed hits liberally to mid-to-deep center field and right field. That essentially evaporated in 2011 as only a handful of balls leaked out to (and over) the wall.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" height="103" src="http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Mauer_Spray_Chart.jpg" style="float: none !important;" width="400" /></span></div>
<div class="photo" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; width: 630px;">
</div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
</div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">(Click to embiggen)</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">What all this says is that he did not drive the ball as well as he did as recently as 2010.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As the data showed above, Mauer definitely struggled to get around on pitches but what’s more is that he was unable to generate any lift. In 2011, just 21.5% of the balls he hit were of the fly ball variety – the lowest rate of his career. This put him in the category with punch-and-judy slap hitters like Ben Revere, Wilson Valdez, Derek Jeter, Ichiro Suzuki and Elvis Andrus – the only hitters ahead of him who hit fewer fly balls. Without a strong foundation, hitters have troubles elevating the ball and without elevation, you lose extra base hit capabilities. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A year ago, <a href="http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2011/03/mechanical-flaw-responsible-for-spans.html" style="color: #0b478d; text-decoration: none;">Vavra cited Denard Span’s head movement</a> as a major impetus behind his drop-off in 2010. That season, Span’s number declined as his groundball rate grew a bit. According to Vavra, Span was demonstrating too much head movement, rising up when the pitch was coming and causing him to shift the plane which led to less square contact. Now Vavra has made a mention of this being one of the issues for Mauer. If Mauer has been doing the same thing, it is not showing up on video footage of him (at least not to the extent that Span’s head movement had shown).Nevertheless, his 55.4% groundball rate in 2011 was the highest of his career and changing his vision plane would be a logical source for this increase.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">What are the odds that Mauer can bring himself back up into shape for 2012?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Mauer had said he has <a href="http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/138170149.html" style="color: #0b478d; text-decoration: none;">rededicated himself this offseason</a>, reportedly adding 30 pounds after shedding so much during the season last year, but mostly concentrating on his knee:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<blockquote style="background-color: white; color: #333333; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 12px; padding-left: 48px; padding-right: 48px; padding-top: 0px;">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">"My workouts at this point were focused on rehabbing the knee, and I really didn't get to work on other things. Being a baseball player, with all the other movements you need to make, you need to focus on total body, and I'm able to do that now.”<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
</blockquote>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If healthy in 2012, Mauer should be able to turn on the ball a bit more, adding some lift and distance, and make people forget that he spent in the infirmary. He will likely never match that special 2009 season but as a high average/high on-base, solid defensive catcher, he is capable of being the anchor this team desperately needs.</span></span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37892113.post-25471822452316790572012-01-23T23:57:00.000-06:002012-01-23T23:57:19.018-06:00What's left to spend?<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">This past
week the Twins made several notable moves that affected their payroll – signing
free agent reliever Joel Zumaya and coming to terms with several arbitration-eligible
players including Glen Perkins and Francisco Liriano.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">The <a href="http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2012/01/twins-add-joel-zumaya-to-bullpen-mix.html">Twins
signed Zumaya</a> to an incentive-laden deal that can be as little of a
commitment as $400,000 if he fails to break camp with the team all the way up
to $1.75 million if he reaches certain performance bonuses. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Shortly
thereafter, the team agreed to deal with Perkins ($1.55 million) and Liriano
($5.5 million) while continuing to work on an agreement with their last
arb-eligible player, second baseman Alexi Casilla. Casilla’s camp submitted a
figure of $1.75 million while the Twins countered with a deal offered $1.065.
Considering this organization does not enter arbitration with players regularly,
it is assumed that the team and Casilla will eventually split the difference on
a one-year contract.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Given those
recent transactions, here is the current 2012 projected payroll based on the
existing knowledge found at <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/">Cot’s Contracts</a>
and the Star Tribune’s <a href="http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/blogs/135579343.html">Joe
Christensen’s</a> prior assumptions: <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgoHzsQr8BE4KzbgtxGlrO4yJgaHY0d79q_iG0TfBm61gG03phP7TroD435oX9fdxdrbokO8VT-IZA9gmdmrC8v7zXwBEkWcyHYB2TykVhg6YRX5SP-y0kcMG0FUIwqh2NkH7fwJA/s1600/Twins+Payroll+Estimate_1.23.12.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="380" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgoHzsQr8BE4KzbgtxGlrO4yJgaHY0d79q_iG0TfBm61gG03phP7TroD435oX9fdxdrbokO8VT-IZA9gmdmrC8v7zXwBEkWcyHYB2TykVhg6YRX5SP-y0kcMG0FUIwqh2NkH7fwJA/s400/Twins+Payroll+Estimate_1.23.12.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">As of right
now, the Twins are anticipated to spend around $98.5 million on the 2012 team.
That is significantly under the $115 million that the 2011 team was paid out,
however, given the <a href="http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/130608298.html?page=2&c=y">ownership’s
desire to lower than figure</a>, the drop-off should not be surprising. A few
months after La Velle Neal’s interview with Jim Pohlad, the team fired general
manager Bill Smith and replaced him with Terry Ryan. During Ryan’s reintroduction
press conference in November, he gave a <a href="http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Terry_Ryan_estimates_100_million_payroll_Krivsky_coming_aboard110711">few
more details regarding the payroll number</a>:</span></div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">“I think it's going to somewhere around 100 (million)."
Ryan added, "There's nobody up here that wants to hide anything. If it's
95, if it's 100, if it's 90, we're going to make due (sp) with what Jim
(Pohlad) and the family and (team president) Dave (St. Peter) give us.</span>”</blockquote>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">At the $98.5 million mark, the payroll is right in that sweet
spot of where Ryan was describing. Because of that, it isn’t necessarily a
given that the team will seek to spend that $1.5 million remaining from the
assumed $100 million payroll. If Ryan opts to close up shop right now and move
forward with the present lot, no one could blame him.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Then again, that wouldn’t be in the best interest of the
on-field product, especially considering the state of the bullpen.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Even though Zumaya could be a very capable arm, based on his
injury history, there is no guarantee he can sustain the duration of the season
(in fact, I would easily bet against him making the maximum of his contract). Outside
of Zumaya, the Twins have a bevy of <a href="http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2012/01/coffey-is-for-setting-up-closers.html">intriguing
yet unproven right-handed arms</a>. The most prudent thing would be to use that
money towards signing someone like Todd Coffey or Dan Wheeler. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">As I outlined recently, Coffey could be a valuable but
inexpensive addition to the bullpen to stave off right-handed foes. Making just
$1.35 million with the Nationals last year, Coffey figures to have his
potential earnings diluted in the current plethora of relievers on the market
and could easily be signed for $1.5 million or less. Meanwhile Wheeler, who is
even more of a threat against right-handed hitters than Coffey, made a pretty
penny in Boston a year ago ($3 million) but a shoulder injury at the end of the
season combined with the deep market could also push him into that $1.5 million
range as well. Either option would be a solid addition to deepen a fairly
shallow bullpen. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">For the Twins, who are down to their final few schillings, choosing
to spend that $1.5 million to land a bargain bin-priced reliever would undoubtedly
strengthen the pitching staff. <o:p></o:p></span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37892113.post-34425318601509621752012-01-23T01:24:00.000-06:002012-01-23T01:24:17.022-06:00Can a focused Burroughs be useful to the Twins?<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">On Monday,
the Star Tribune’s <a href="http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/137831418.html">Patrick Reusse</a>
recounted the tale of <b>Sean Burroughs</b>,
a recent Twins minor league signing this winter, whose life was derailed by drinking
and drugs in his twenties. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In his first
four seasons of professional ball in the Padres organization, Burroughs hit a
remarkable .324/418/.453 in 1,653 plate appearances. Baseball America anointed him
the seventh best prospect in 2000 then the sixth best in 2001 and finally the
fourth best in 2002. He was the proverbial “can’t miss” prospect. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Unfortunately,
he missed.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">From 2003 to
2005, Burroughs hit .283/.343/.366 with the Padres. While in a different era
his batting average may have been lauded, in the modern era that puts emphasis
on reaching base AND hitting for power, Burroughs’ stock tumbled in San Diego. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">People began
to wonder where the power - the one that baseball minds predicted he would
eventually develop - was. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Midway
through 2005, the <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/news/050723randa.html">Friars traded
for Joe Randa</a>, who was having a solid season in Cincinnati at an extremely
hitter-friendly ballpark. This was the beginning of the end for Burroughs in
San Diego. Never mind that upon reaching the west coast and Petco Park Randa’s
numbers tumbled to .256/.303/.395 – hardly an improvement over what Burroughs
was providing them – but Burroughs’s off-field shenanigans likely accelerated
his exit.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">According to
an article by <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110610&content_id=20275620&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb">MLB.com’s
Jenifer Langosch</a>, Burroughs’ attention turned to partying that season:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">“It
began sometime in 2005, his fourth season with the Padres, Burroughs recalled,
when he became more concerned with postgame plans than actually succeeding
under the lights at PETCO Park. Burroughs struggled to pin down the reason he
took the path he did, though one wrong turn was all it took to get stuck.</span></span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">‘I was looking
to just have fun,’ Burroughs said. ‘Have a good game and celebrate. Have a bad
game and numb out. Once you start, you can't stop.’</span></span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Burroughs did a pretty good job hiding the
extracurricular activities from his teammates, though the sudden dip in results
suggested something was not right for a guy who was supposed to be a star.<span style="background: white;">”<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></blockquote>
<div style="background: white; line-height: 115%; margin-bottom: 10.0pt; margin-left: 0in; margin-right: 0in; margin-top: 10.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background-color: white; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The Padres would trade
Burroughs to Tampa in exchange for another failed prospect in Dewan Brazelton
but Burroughs would flounder in Florida as well. In 25 games for the Devil
Rays, he hit .190/.320/.238 and earned a release in August. This begat a trail
run with the Mariners the following season that lasted until June. After that,
Burroughs disconnected from the world in Las Vegas, accumulating war stories
which he claims would make Josh Hamilton blush.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The
30-year-old Burroughs cleaned himself up and earned a spot into the
Diamondbacks system. While in AAA Reno last year, he produced well in 110 plate
appearances, hitting .412/.450/.618. Impressed, Arizona buoyed him between the
big club and their top affiliate, chiefly using him as a pinch hitter off the
bench (58 of his 115 plate appearances can off the bench). In that limited time
at the big league level, Baseball America’s one-time number four overall
prospect hit .273/.289/.336 with five extra base hits.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">While he’s a
fantastic feel-good story worth of a Disney biopic, what are the odds we’ll see
Burroughs at Target Field in 2012?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Based on his
track record, it might be fairly decent. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In 2011,
Danny Valencia was one of the worst rated defensive third basemen according to
Baseball Info Solution’s Plus/Minus rating system (30 in MLB). Meanwhile,
Burroughs has been a top defender in the game as recently as 2005. Yes, six
years added to his odometer may have slowed him down some, but there are odds
that his prowess still exists:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimaf5XRJ7S7NrawRunGGP7IZhcRCyzoif6AL6aVBdJ3Hv8vdFEp6G_XM9Q8KD7HXpGCktpNIlrEdA9RIDb8Zelh6sYm-3I9MOWHYjQkjqBqzFfViMXU-gG-wJl5CaO6SygsxVnUw/s1600/Burroughs_PlusMinus.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="105" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimaf5XRJ7S7NrawRunGGP7IZhcRCyzoif6AL6aVBdJ3Hv8vdFEp6G_XM9Q8KD7HXpGCktpNIlrEdA9RIDb8Zelh6sYm-3I9MOWHYjQkjqBqzFfViMXU-gG-wJl5CaO6SygsxVnUw/s400/Burroughs_PlusMinus.jpg" width="400" /></span></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Furthermore,
where the right-handed hitting third base incumbent has been thwarted by
same-sided nemesis (a career .283 OBP against RHP), Burroughs’s little major
league success is predicated on him being able to reach base against righties
(.350 career OBP against RHP). If added to the roster, he provides a solid
platoon option. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">What’s
interesting about <a href="http://twitpic.com/7vwrjo/full">Burroughs’s approach
at the plate</a> is that the left-hander has an inside-out swing, one that
produces numerous opposite field and up-the-middle hits. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiT3ABGo8TTJYICWZdWZcCUCdqYnKNPzJBynezDKKTM7kIrHcXh80DzgfodaA3bTwhWpInhyKR_gyyKiYBz_7INzt49Cwse5niYgSAJEF3kKz3RrIQXLTrFOm665y9dKMCQRzLHZw/s1600/Burroughs_AZHitChart.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="211" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiT3ABGo8TTJYICWZdWZcCUCdqYnKNPzJBynezDKKTM7kIrHcXh80DzgfodaA3bTwhWpInhyKR_gyyKiYBz_7INzt49Cwse5niYgSAJEF3kKz3RrIQXLTrFOm665y9dKMCQRzLHZw/s400/Burroughs_AZHitChart.jpg" width="400" /></span></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As you can
see from Inside Edge’s hit chart from last year, Burroughs thrives at taking
inside pitches the other way – a method that provides a high average but little
power. Here is a video clip that
exemplifies this swing:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><iframe frameborder="0" height="224" src="http://mlb.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=19614437&width=400&height=224&property=mlb" width="400">Your browser does not support
iframes.</iframe> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This resulted
in Burroughs hitting .565 on balls hit to left while hitting just .143 when
pulling the ball in 2011.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Although many
baseball people thought Burroughs’s power would eventually develop, it is more
likely that his approach would never allow for a great deal of home runs – much like a certain Minnesota catcher (with the exception of one season). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Because of
his keen batting eye and ability to get base hits by using left and center
fields, Burroughs maintained an average of .317 and an on-base percentage of
.400 in the minors. While playing in the
Venezuelan Winter League this winter, Burroughs continued by hitting .316 and
posting a .396 on-base percentage in 136 at-bats. It is possible that given the
opportunity to hit in more favorable situations against right-handed pitchers,
he could potentially put up similar numbers.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If Valencia
cannot improve on his defense and his struggle against right-handed pitching
persists, don’t be surprised to see Burroughs in Minnesota. At the very least,
Burroughs can be a Rochester reminder for the current starter – hopefully pushing
him to improve his game. </span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37892113.post-68281333507059502732012-01-15T23:27:00.000-06:002012-01-15T23:27:32.444-06:00Twins add Joel Zumaya to the bullpen mix<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">The Twins
have frequently been accused of not catering to power arms and also not taking
risks on their offseason signings. On Sunday, they may have made inroads in
both areas by agreeing to a deal, pending a physical, with former Tigers
flame-thrower <b>Joel Zumaya</b>. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">According to <a href="http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/blogs/137384058.html">Joe
Christensen</a>, the Twins and Zumaya have agreed to terms of a deal worth
$800,000, with the potential of adding another $900,000 of incentives based on
innings pitched, pending a physical.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<table align="left" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoNormalTable" style="border-collapse: collapse; margin-left: 6.75pt; margin-right: 6.75pt; width: 266px;">
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td colspan="3" nowrap="" style="height: 15.0pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 199.15pt;" valign="bottom" width="266">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Fastest
Fastball (2007-2010)<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td nowrap="" style="height: 15.0pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 103.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="137">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Name<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="height: 15.0pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.15pt;" valign="bottom" width="64">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">FB%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="height: 15.0pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">FBv<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td nowrap="" style="background: #D8D8D8; height: 15.0pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 103.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="137">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<i><span style="color: red; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Joel Zumaya<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #D8D8D8; height: 15.0pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.15pt;" valign="bottom" width="64">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<i><span style="color: red; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">81.30%<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #D8D8D8; height: 15.0pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<i><span style="color: red; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">98.5<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td nowrap="" style="height: 15.0pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 103.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="137">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Daniel Bard<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="height: 15.0pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.15pt;" valign="bottom" width="64">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">72.90%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="height: 15.0pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">97.7<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td nowrap="" style="background: #D8D8D8; height: 15.0pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 103.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="137">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Matt Lindstrom<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #D8D8D8; height: 15.0pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.15pt;" valign="bottom" width="64">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">73.10%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #D8D8D8; height: 15.0pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">96.4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 5;">
<td nowrap="" style="height: 15.0pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 103.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="137">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Neftali Feliz<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="height: 15.0pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.15pt;" valign="bottom" width="64">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">78.70%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="height: 15.0pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">96.2<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 6;">
<td nowrap="" style="background: #D8D8D8; height: 15.0pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 103.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="137">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Jonathan Broxton<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #D8D8D8; height: 15.0pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.15pt;" valign="bottom" width="64">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">73.30%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #D8D8D8; height: 15.0pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">96.1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 7;">
<td nowrap="" style="height: 15.0pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 103.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="137">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Brian Wilson<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="height: 15.0pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.15pt;" valign="bottom" width="64">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">67.20%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="height: 15.0pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">96.1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 8; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td nowrap="" style="background: #D8D8D8; height: 15.0pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 103.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="137">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Jason Motte<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #D8D8D8; height: 15.0pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.15pt;" valign="bottom" width="64">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">79.40%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #D8D8D8; height: 15.0pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">95.9<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Zumaya, the
talented yet often injured pitcher, has drawn some interest this offseason. In
early December, the free agent Zumaya was in Houston to throw off the mound in
front of teams. Fox Sports’ <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/jonmorosi/status/147414710009069568">Jon Morosi</a>
tweeted that a scout told him that “almost every team was there” to watch him. Reports
from the Texas audition were that the 27-year-old right hander was throwing in
the mid-90s, down slightly from his 98.5 mile-per-hour average from 2007
through 2010. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Based on
this, several team courted Zumaya as a potential buy-low, reward-high type of
arm. Both Boston and San Diego were engaged in talks with him but, as the
Boston Globe’s <a href="http://bostonglobe.com/sports/2011/12/25/mlb-teams-haven-finished-shopping-yet/iOGLcnsZiDw6H3pC22tKCM/story.html">Nick
Cafardo</a> reported, one AL team’s doctors did not believe that Zumaya would
be able to pass a physical in order to be signed. Because the concern, it is easy to see why he
would be available for under a million. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">As you can
glean from the chart above, Zumaya’s fastball is pure diesel fuel. From 2007 to
2010, Zumaya averaged the hardest fastball in the majors. Although an
impressive feat, his regular absence from the active roster was a true
detriment. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">After bursting
onto the scene in 2006 as a hot-shot 22-year-old reliever, he supposedly <a href="http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/16212095/">destroyed his elbow in 2006 by
playing Guitar Hero too much</a> (a <a href="http://www.npr.org/blogs/therecord/2011/02/11/133654860/no-more-windmills-activision-kills-guitar-hero">video
game that is no longer available</a> either). In 2007, Zumaya missed extended time
when he <a href="http://blog.mlive.com/tigersinsider/2007/05/zumaya_i_think_i_dislocated_my.html">dislocated
his finger while warming up in the bullpen</a> and threw just 33.2 innings that
season. Those 33.2 innings would be the most he would throw in a single season
outside of his rookie year. In November of 2007, he would require AC joint reconstruction
in his throwing shoulder (which he injured removing items from his <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=657">Southern California
homes during one of the wildfires</a>) and missed a substantial portion of the
2008 season. The following year he would re-aggravate the shoulder in July of
2009 and wound up on the DL as the pain <a href="http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/07/zumaya-injured-planet-continues-to-rotate/">kept
him from being able to lift his arm above his head</a>. Finally, in 2010 most
Twins fans were witness to Zumaya’s elbow exploding (<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olecranon">a fractured olecranon</a>) on a 99-mile-per-hour pitch to Delmon Young. He would miss the entire 2011 season because of that
last injury, which necessitated a subsequent surgical procedure to replace a
screw that was inserted into his elbow after the fracture. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><iframe frameborder="0" height="224" src="http://mlb.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=9468883&width=400&height=224&property=mlb" width="400">Your browser does not support
iframes.</iframe><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Given the
laundry list of ailments, it wouldn’t surprise me that during his impending
physical that those doctors discover that his elbow is being held together with
rubber band and duct tape. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Clearly,
there is an injury risk associated with him but when healthy, he’s been a
dominate arm in the bullpen. Over his career, he’s thrown 209.1 innings,
striking out 23.1% of all batters faced and holding opponents to a .213 average
against. However, unlike the majority of his Twin counterparts, Zumaya’s been a
bit erratic with his control. His 12.8 % walk rate dating back to 2007 has been
one of the league’s higher numbers in that period. Because of the various
injuries, you can see how they would affect his command, particularly in 2008
and 2009 when he was recovering from shoulder surgery (44 walks in 54.1
innings). Considering he is recovering from elbow surgery this time around, it
is very possible that Zumaya will struggle with his control in 2012.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">If things
work out favorable for Zumaya in the health department, it is an exciting move
that could transform the look of the bullpen, giving Ron Gardenhire a viable
late innings right-handed option that was missing from the 2011 squad. At the
same time, we must remember that Zumaya is coming off surgery that really has
no comparables that would indicate how he will respond. Early indications
suggest that the velocity is not quite what it was – as <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/PMac21/status/158636709821689856">Phil Mackey
tweeted</a>, the Twins clocked Zumaya between 92-94 miles per hour – so while
it is still good readings, you have to wonder if several ticks off the fastball
(one that is thrown up and over the plate) translates into a few more hits. On
top of that, there are some team doctors who simply do not think he would pass
a physical let alone finish an entire season. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">This is
certainly an out-of-the-box move for the Twins. We’ve seen a steady history of
safe bets - those low-risk/ low-reward acquisitions for the bullpen that have
become the organization’s MO. Zumaya, who’s obviously a high risk with his
injury history, yet he represents a very high reward. With less a million
dollars invested, the Zumaya signing is a good gamble for Minnesota.<o:p></o:p></span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37892113.post-43788637668928592682012-01-13T00:13:00.001-06:002012-01-13T07:44:00.921-06:00Coffey is for (setting up) closers<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">According to </span><a href="http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Righthander_Todd_Coffey_among_possible_bullpen_targets_for_Twins011212" style="background-color: white; color: #0b478d; text-decoration: none;">Phil Mackey at 1500ESPN.com</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">, the Twins have been in contact with a potential bullpen arm:</span><o:p style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"></o:p></span><br />
<div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
</div>
<blockquote style="background-color: white; color: #333333; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 12px; padding-left: 48px; padding-right: 48px; padding-top: 0px;">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial;">“On Thursday, a baseball source confirmed the Twins have been in talks recently with the agent for right-hander <b>Todd Coffey</b>, who owns a 3.68 ERA with 167 strikeouts and 53 unintentional walks in 205 2/3 innings over the past three seasons with the Nationals and Brewers.</span>”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</blockquote>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">On paper, backend depth in the bullpen was supposed to be a strength for the 2011 Twins as they had Joe Nathan and Matt Capps in place to handle the 8<sup>th</sup> and 9<sup>th</sup> innings to shorten games. Of course, in reality, Nathan’s return from Tommy John surgery was <a href="http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2011/04/gardy-will-split-time-with-his-closers.html" style="color: #0b478d; text-decoration: none;">predictably premature</a> while Capps would <a href="http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2011/12/twins-bring-back-matt-capps-to-close-in.html" style="color: #0b478d; text-decoration: none;">labor through arm issues of his own</a>, leaving the Twins short in late inning arms – particularly from the right side.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Without question, the left-handed Glen Perkins filled the role admirably as the bridge to the closer, even holding righties to a bullpen-best .259 batting average against. Yet, the Twins struggled to find a suitable candidate to square off on tougher right-handed hitters – guys who could be counted on to defuse a late inning matchup with Paul Konerko or Miguel Cabrera. Over the course of the season, the team trotted out young arms in Alex Burnett (789 OPS vs RHB), Lester Oliveros (706 OPS), and Kyle Waldrop (909 OPS). While the future may prove otherwise, based on their results none of those players seemed ready to handle more critical situations.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As those pitchers get the opportunity to develop in less vital roles - perhaps eventually marrying the skill with their natural talent and ascending in the pecking order - the Twins would require a more stable, more consistent right-handed member of the bullpen.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">That’s where the 31-year-old Todd Coffey comes in.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Undervalued for most of his career and, outside of his <a href="http://washington.nationals.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=4767173&c_id=mlb" style="color: #0b478d; text-decoration: none;">sprint in from the bullpen</a>, Coffey has toiled away quietly in the National League, producing splits that would make blue states proud. Over his seven seasons, he has keep righties at bay at a much better rate than lefties (.265 RH avg vs .317 LH avg). That mark has improved in the past few seasons as well. Since 2009, he’s kept righties at a .222 average.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">While he had been given a more balanced workload in Milwaukee, facing righties and lefties a fairly equal amount, the Nationals played more to his strength by limited his engagements with wrong-handed hitters. This meant shorter outings and more selective appearances. It appears to be an ideal fit for the Twins – someone with late inning experience, who is tough on right-handed opponents and can be lifted easily for one of the plethora of southpaws in the ‘pen (Perkins or Brian Duensing).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But, is Coffey as good as advertised?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Interestingly, Coffey has seen his batted ball rates change significantly in the past three years. Early on in his career, Coffey was a ground-ball inducing machine, getting grounders well over 50% of the time. In 2010, that started to dip. Last year, his ground ball rate was at a career-low 43.6%.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">What appears to be responsible for the decline is how he deploys his slider. Prior to 2010, Coffey was mainly a fastball guy who occasionally mixed in his slider but in 2010, Coffey up his usage of the slider to the point where he nearly threw it as much as his fastball (likely in response to the higher amount of match-ups versus same-sided hitters). But it wasn’t just the amount that changed; it was <i>how </i>he threw the slider as well.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In 2009, he would bury the slider underneath the zone, inciting any opponents who opted to chase after the pitch to go out of the strike zone to do so. Because of its trajectory and the fact that it was well underneath the hitting zone when it reached the plate, most hitters were forced to bat it into the ground or flail at it.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<br /></div>
<div class="photo" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; text-align: center; width: 450px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img alt="" height="450" src="http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1326434338_Coffey_SlidervRHB_2009.png" style="float: none !important;" width="450" /></span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
</div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-align: center;"> </span><img alt="" height="240" src="http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Coffey_Slider_2009_1.png" style="float: none !important; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-align: center;" width="480" /></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Meanwhile, starting in 2010, Coffey began to throw his slider more often for a strike. This meant in was in the zone more resulting in more contact and more elevation in said contact.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="photo" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; width: 450px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img alt="" height="450" src="http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Coffey_SlidervRHB_2011.png" style="float: none !important;" width="450" /></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="photo" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img alt="" src="http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Coffey_Slider_2011.png" style="float: none !important;" /></span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
</div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">long with the decrease in grounders, Coffey also witnessed righties hitting his offerings more solidly. According to Inside Edge’s Well Hit metric, in 2009, righties posted a .168 well-hit average. This past season, that number jumped to .221. In spite of that hard-hit rate, Coffey had a little help from his friends in the Nationals defense this year, helping convert 72.1% of balls in play into outs – also a career best.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As mentioned before, Coffey has a decent fastball/slider combination that when thrown together in the right mix, he may be able to avoid getting squared up regularly. Ideally, if the Twins do sign him to subdue righties, they show him the difference in how his slider is performing and see if he can resurrected the ’09 version at Target Field. </span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37892113.post-27860297055190956922012-01-06T00:55:00.000-06:002012-01-06T00:55:44.361-06:00A team building exercise<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In
introducing himself to his new fan base out west, Michael Cuddyer fielded
questions from readers in the <a href="http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_19675168">Denver Post</a>. One question
regarding the outfielder’s excitement towards switching ballparks – from Target
Field to Coors Field – incited the former Twin to sing a familiar tune
(emphasis mine):</span></div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">“I'm a
gap-to-gap hitter and I hit with power to the right-center field gap. At the
Metrodome, I would drive the ball to the baggy out in right center, and I
really peppered the ball. <i>But if you hit
the ball to right-center at Target Field, the ball would just die. It's a long
way out there</i>.</span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">At Coors Field, I think I can take advantage of my natural swing
and I won't have to try and pull the ball. <i>When
I'm going well, I'm driving the ball to right-center and I don't have to
overcompensate and try to pull the ball</i>. At Coors, I can pull those inside
pitches down the line, but I think overall it's a more natural fit for my
swing.” </span></blockquote>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Stop me if
you have heard this one before but since Target Field opened you have been
subjected to <a href="http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2010/11/move-fences-in-or-let-hitters-adapt.html">a
barrage of data</a>, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/05/sports/baseball/05twins.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=Pat%20Borzi&st=cse">some
scientific insight</a> and anecdotal observation from players -- of which you
can now add Cuddyer’s name to a list that already includes Delmon Young, Justin
Morneau and Jason Kubel -- which speaks to the cavernous play of the Twins ballpark
and the effects on the players.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">The fact is
that for the most part the Twins carried the same core group of hitters from
the Metrodome days into their new home. Hitters like Michael Cuddyer and Jason
Kubel performed well inside that configuration but have scuffled since moving
outdoors. They are not the only ones. In the final two years at the Metrodome,
the Twins hit 152 home runs. However, now with two seasons into the Target Field
era, they have hit just 98 home runs – the third fewest home runs at home in
baseball. Injuries, age and other factors all should be consider yet the
biggest change has to be the environment.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">If you are a decision-making member of the Twins’ front office, what should you do? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">One important
aspect of constructing a roster is understanding how the personnel fit into
your home ballpark. After all, you play 81 games a year at your home field, it’s
best to find a lineup that plays best to that environment. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">For instance,
at Fenway Park in Boston, the left field Green Monster is whisper away from the
infield dirt at 310 to 315 feet. Therefore, it would behoove the Red Sox to skimp
on the left-handed starters – which they have, keeping Jon Lester as the only
lefty in the rotation consistently dating back to 2000. Likewise, it would also
benefit the club to fill the lineup with right-handed pull hitters who elevate
the ball to left (or someone like left-handed like Adrian Gonzalez who is very
adept at going the other way). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">That’s one
such extreme example but other stadiums have their own advantages. Dodgers
Stadium favors power hitters to center field and it is no surprise Dodgers’
center fielder Matt Kemp paced baseball with 21 center field home runs (the
next closest was 13 by Ryan Howard). Seattle, meanwhile, has struggled to find
right-handed power considering Safeco Field is a challenge for righties -- an
82 Park Factor for righties, one of the lowest marks in the league. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Circling back
to the Twins, it has become evident over the course of two seasons that Target
Field is extremely pitcher-friendly (to those pitchers who keep hitters in the
big part of the park anyways). This is not a bad thing. There is no need to adjust
the walls, just the mindset when targeting hitters. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">No, the
answer is not moving the walls in; the answer is in player selection.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">This
offseason, the Twins were faced with the need to fill two key spots in the lineup
with impending free agents in Kubel and Cuddyer. Both were hitters that thrived
as gap-to-gap hitters. Unfortunately this trait is punished somewhat at Target
Field. To compensate, both hitters have admitted to changing their approach in
the past two seasons to accommodate the difference in play. So, the Twins have
replaced those long-time Twins with Ryan Doumit and Josh Willingham, two
players who stay closer to the foul line than Kubel or Cuddyer.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Doumit, a
switch-hitter, figures to replace Kubel’s at-bats as a designated hitter and
part-time outfielder. And, while he hits from both sides of the plate, he will
see the majority of his plate appearances from the left side. Production-wise,
they both excelled when pulling the ball. Kubel has held a .437 weighted On
Base Average with 174 weighted Runs Created. Doumit has been slightly better
with a .446 wOBA and a 177 wRC+. The difference is that whereas Kubel pulled
the ball 43% of the time in his career, Doumit yanked the pitch 53% of the
time. Given his higher tendency to pull the ball and playing in Target Field
that plays favorable down the right field line for left-handed hitters, if he
can remain healthy, Doumit could be the superior power option. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Meanwhile, I
had shown recently how Josh <a href="http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2011/12/josh-willingham-was-built-for-target.html">Willingham
is the antithesis of Michael Cuddyer when it comes to hitting</a>. Transformed into a pull-happy right-hander
thanks to the spacious O.co Stadium in Oakland, Willingham displayed plenty of power
directed towards the left field bleachers. Over his career, Cuddyer has pulled
the ball 44% of the time while compiling a .435 wOBA and 171 wRC+. Willingham,
on the other hand, has pulled the ball 49% of the time to produce a .520 wOBA
and a 226 wRC+. So, unlike Cuddyer who seems to have become somewhat
uncomfortable regarding his old environs and needing to change his approach,
Willingham fits the mold just right. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Perhaps the
Twins organization made intentional efforts to identify hitters like Doumit and
Willingham whose skill sets include being pull hitters. Perhaps it was serendipitous
that the pair fell to the Twins. Either way, from an on-field, team-building
standpoint, this was the right direction to go. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">The truth is,
being pull happy can weigh down one’s batting average and on-base percentage
(as it did for Willingham last year) but it can certainly lead to more power –
an area that the Twins have been lacking since the Metrodome days. This can be
viewed as the great power experiment for the organization – a litmus test to
see how this translates from theory to reality. If Doumit and Willingham prove to be a
success, it will be a blueprint for future player acquisitions. <o:p></o:p></span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com18tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37892113.post-67480030039961456092012-01-04T21:31:00.001-06:002012-01-05T09:23:18.193-06:00Liriano makes a start in Dominican League<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">It is hard to
pinpoint what exactly it was about Liriano’s 2011 season that went so haywire.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Was it that
he was under-conditioned, pitching through an injury, struggling with his mechanics,
lost his confidence, lost his mind, lost his dog, all of the above, none of the
above? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Regardless of
why, there are two critical factors that go hand-in-hand which Liriano needs to
improve on from his poor 2011 campaign:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">(1) Command of his fastball and (2)
Getting ahead of hitters.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">In 2011,
Liriano demonstrated some of the worst command of the heater than almost every
starter. Of all qualified pitchers (those who had thrown a minimum of 1,000
fastballs), Liriano’s 53% strike rate was the lowest. What’s more is that when
he started his opponents off with the fastball -- which he did a little over
half of all match-ups -- he managed to throw it for strike just 44% of the time,
also the lowest in baseball. Meanwhile, in 2010, the left-hander was much
closer to the league average of 64% by throwing his fastball for a strike 63%
of the time (61% on the first pitch). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Intertwined with
the command of his fastball is his ability to get ahead of hitters. Two seasons
ago, Liriano threw strike one 61% of the time, putting his opponents at a quick
disadvantage perhaps enticing them to swing at more out-of-zone offerings (34%
out-of-swing rate in 2010, highest of his career) and more swings in general (a
46.5% swing rate). In 2010, however, Liriano wandered aimlessly. In just 49% of
his match-ups was he able to achieve strike one – the worst rate in baseball.
And it wasn’t just the first pitch last year, either. In 79% of his at-bats he
was able to get a strike in one of the first two pitches (the worst mark in
baseball and well below the 85% league average). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">If Liriano makes
significant strides in these two areas in 2012, considering his potent slider
and improving change, there’s no reason not to think that he can’t rebound to
his 2010 self. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Which brings
us to his outing on Wednesday night. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Shortly
before Christmas, GM Terry Ryan said that Liriano was not going to throw in the
winter leagues but rather he would pitch at the Twins’ Dominican Academy and
build his arm strength there. This was largely deflating to those who had
witnessed how poorly he came into spring camp a year ago after skipping winter
ball. However, <a href="http://twitter.com/#!/OverTheBaggy/status/154648092069732352">midday
yesterday the Liga de Beisbol website</a> announced that Liriano would be
starting for the Leones del Escogido. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Now,
considering it was his first outing against live hitters since September 24,
the proper amount of slack needs to be cut. Keep in mind there is plenty of
time until April 1. Still, you have to watch for signs of improvement,
especially in the aforementioned areas of (1) and (2). Against a C-list lineup
(with Hiram Bocachica, who has been playing the Mexican Leagues the previous
two seasons, batting third), Liriano’s fastball looked erratic and he struggled
to locate the catcher’s target. In similar fashion to 2011, he mixed in his
two-seamed fastball to right-handed opponents which ran up-and-away. Also like
last season, of the eight batters he faced, he fell behind all but two. In all,
one and two-thirds innings of work and 37 pitches required. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">To reiterate,
Liriano has plenty of time left to re-establish the command of his fastball and
work at striking first against opponents. I'm not going to chastise him for one outing, however, if you were looking for early
signs of progress in his first start in the winter leagues, you didn't get it. <o:p></o:p></span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37892113.post-47191626058537186362012-01-02T00:46:00.000-06:002012-01-02T00:46:16.753-06:00Farewell 2011<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Yet another
year has passed us by and I am headed into my fifth full season of operating
this blog. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Strange how
things happen over five years. It is amazing to me how this went from being a
place where I posted my personal thoughts and findings -- doing so shrouded in anonymity
because I was partially ashamed to admit that I was “blogging” (the word just
sounds awful, right?) -- to an audience of, well, me to a place that has evolved
to the point where it has as many
visitors as it does. Blows my mind when I think about it. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I would like
to thank all of my regular readers for dropping in to digest my analysis. I
hope that you draw as much entertainment out of the posts as I do from
researching and writing them. Below, I have posted some of my personal favorite
entries from the past calendar year so check them out if you missed any. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I will promise
to try to try to make this site a better experience in 2012. I suppose that is
also contingent on the Twins being a good team but I will try to make the most
of it and provide informative pieces nonetheless. One of my biggest
shortcomings is my inability to foster relationships with readers like fellow
TwinsCentric writers like Seth Stohs and Nick Nelson do. I would like to
improve in that area this year. Feel free to follow me on Twitter <a href="http://twitter.com/#!/overthebaggy">(@OverTheBaggy</a>) if you have any
questions or comments that are 140 characters or less. To sweeten the deal, if
you follow me and tweet “I WANT A FREE SHIRT FROM DIAMONDCENTRIC” I’ll send one
person a free <a href="http://diamondcentric.myshopify.com/">DiamondCentric</a>
shirt. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Also, I
should probably update my site’s description that was provided by
Newsbobber.com considering Michael Cuddyer is no longer with the Twins. If
anyone wants to attempt to provide me with some flattery, I’ll send a shirt if I
use it.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">That’s it for
my ramblings. More analysis and video scouting to come. Happy 2012 all. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
</div>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">To
start the year in 2011, I made </span><a href="http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2011/01/handful-of-predictions-for-2011.html" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">four
predictions for the upcoming season</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">. </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">The first was that </span><b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">Denard Span</b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"> would have a rebound season. The second was that </span><b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">Danny Valencia</b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"> would be mired in a
sophomore slump. The third was that </span><b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">Jim
Hoey</b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"> would be this year’s version of Grant Balfour. The last was that </span><b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">Scott Baker</b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"> would be the second best
pitcher in the starting rotation.</span></li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Looking
back, I clearly missed hard on the Hoey forecast. As I mentioned in the piece,
I was not basing that prediction off of any founded data aside from the fact
that the two were very comparable in the minors. Not having much
movement/control of his fastball coupled with the lack of a secondary pitch
proved that he was incapable of retiring major league hitters at this juncture.
Toronto, who claimed Hoey on waivers, will attempt to see if he can learn a
second pitch. While Hoey was a bust, the predictions of Span, Valencia and
Baker were almost all spot on. Somewhat. </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Depending how literal you are, I suppose.</span> </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">My
first prediction was that Span would be on base more in 2011. This technically did
not come to fruition as Span posted an on-base percentage of .328 at the season’s
conclusion. However, if he never was concussed, he may have had one of his
better seasons of his career. He had a terrific start to the season, hitting
.295/.365/.378 heading into the game in Kansas City in which he would receive a
whiplash-induced concussion. Unfortunately, he struggled mightily after his attempted
return, going 9-for-62 (.145) with just 3 walks in 65 plate appearances and
dragging down his overall numbers.</span> </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Valencia
encountered the sophomore slump hardcore, </span><a href="http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2011/06/danny-valencia-and-sophomore-slump.html" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">which
I detailed in June of this year</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">, sourced to the Twins third baseman getting
too pull-happy and a bit of regression in the amount of line drives that became
base hits (just 63% in 2011 versus 77% in 2010). This one was not too hard to
foresee.</span> </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Lastly,
Scott Baker emerged as perhaps the best starting pitcher (not second best as my
prediction stated) in the season’s first-half. After having bone chips removed
in 2010, </span><a href="http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2011/07/scott-baker-is-this-good-believe-it.html" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Baker’s
regained his fastball’s dominance and was able to locate significantly better
in 2011</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">. In the middle of a career-best season and holding a 3.01 ERA, Baker
was in consideration for the All Star game when his elbow started barking again
(a right forearm strain). After resting
and making a few more starts and a pair of relief appearances, Baker entered
the 2011 offseason the same way he entered the 2010 – waiting to show everyone
that he can withstand the rigors of an entire season.</span></blockquote>
<ul>
<li><span style="font: normal normal normal 7pt/normal 'Times New Roman'; text-indent: -0.25in;"> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">In
February, I took the stance that it was a </span><a href="http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2011/02/twins-decision-to-go-year-to-year-with.html" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">wise
decision for the Twins to not sign <b>Francisco
Liriano</b> to a long-term contract</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"> despite coming off a very successful
2010 campaign (14-10, 3.62 ERA, 201/58 K/BB ratio and a 2.95 xFIP). My take was
that Liriano’s mechanics and injury history left too much volatility to incite
the need for the organization to pounce and lock him up while having two years
of club control remaining. For whatever reason – poor conditioning, injury,
mentally unprepared or all of the above – Liriano regressed hard in 2011 and
leaving the Twins in position to say they made the right decision. </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">Throughout
the winter, </span><b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">Kyle Gibson</b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"> was heralded
as the next man in line to enter the starting rotation. His midseason injury in
Rochester, necessitating Tommy John surgery, delayed his arrival until at least
2013. The unfortunate career-derailing injury aside, this past spring training
Gibson provided fans with glimpses of what makes him a strong pitcher. Based on
footage captured by 1500ESPN, I documented his strengths in </span><a href="http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2011/02/why-you-should-take-notice-of-kyle.html" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">Why
You Should Take Notice of Kyle Gibson</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">. When he returns eventually, Gibson
will be a groundball-inducing pitcher with the potential to add strikeouts
along the way.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">One
of the bigger talkers entering spring training was what would the Twins
starting rotation be? Following a strong performance in 2010 after being
shifted to the rotation in the last half of the season, lefty </span><b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">Brian Duensing</b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"> was a highly touted
candidate to land one of those available spots. Judging from some of his
indicators (tough splits against right-handed batters, abnormally low BABIP and
abnormally high left-on-base rate) combined with his ability to overwhelm
left-handed hitters with a very good slider I found that </span><a href="http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2011/02/what-role-should-duensing-have-in-11.html" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">Duensing
was best suited for a relief position</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">. Duensing would go on to have one of the worst
statistical years among any starter, mostly based on right-handed opponents
obliterating him (</span><a href="http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2011/08/brian-duensing-needs-to-get-right.html" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">which
I covered in August</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">). Now the Twins are moving him back into the bullpen
where he should have been all along.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"> </span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">Denard Span</b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"> had come off a fairly disappointing offensive
season in 2010. He had gone from hitting .305/.390/.422 in 2008 and 2009 to hitting
.264/.331/.348. Hitting coach Joe Vavra mentioned that Span had some mechanical
flaws that were causing him to not hit the ball square. In March, I took a look
at </span><a href="http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2011/03/mechanical-flaw-responsible-for-spans.html" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">Span’s
progression in his mechanics</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"> over those three seasons and reached the
conclusion that, yes, Span was moving a lot as Vavra said, but had also changed
other things that may have affected his ability to drive the ball. I have not
done so yet but reviewing this piece reminds me that I should study his 2011
film and see what – if any – changes he made in the season’s first-half when he
owned a .295/.365/.378 batting line.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">In
May, new arrival </span><b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">Tsuyoshi Nishioka</b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">
landed on the DL with a fractured leg courtesy of a Nick Swisher slide at
second. This play showed the wide cultural gap between how Japanese and Americans
(or rather Western Hemispherians) play the game. </span><a href="http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2011/04/painful-lesson-to-learn.html" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">Nishioka
learned a painful lesson the hard way</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">.</span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">Justin Morneau</b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"> struggled through April, hitting a utility-infielder-like
.224/.289/.303, and the Kansas City Royals broadcast team announced that their
home team had found a way to get the Twins first baseman out regularly: Pitch
him away. Morneau had been pulling his hip open, committing to yanking the ball
regardless of where it was pitched. A </span><a href="http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2011/05/twins-need-remaining-m-boy-to-breakout.html" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">video
review showed that this was indeed occurring</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">. Morneau never got his mojo
back and finished the year on the sidelines once again after another concussion
(this time in the field).</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">Matt Capps</b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"> had an extremely rough 2011 season, a
lot of which had to do with a forearm injury. Perhaps to compensate for this
injury, early in the season, Capps demonstrated a </span><a href="http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2011/05/adjustment-in-approach-may-have-sunk.html" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">peculiar
tendency of shifting on the rubber depending if the hitter was left-handed or
right-handed</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"> – something that he did not do prior to the 2011 season. In conferring
with Texas Leaguers’s pitch f/x database, it showed that Capps had been landing
his two-seamed fastball (his pitch of choice against lefties) over the plate
more than previous years.</span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">After
the first month of the season, the Twins opening day shortstop, </span><b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">Alexi Casilla</b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">, was hitting a paltry
.167/.227/.200. Then he went on a tear in May hitting .317/.394/.439. Casilla
made </span><a href="http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2011/06/can-alexi-casilla-sustain-this-pace.html" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">some
mechanical adjustments</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"> that helped add pop to his bat and bring his numbers
back towards respectability. For whatever reason, his swing reverted back to
his pre-May days by the end of June and a hamstring injury cut his season
short.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">Like
Casilla (and well, all of the Twins really), </span><b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">Delmon Young’s</b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"> season started slow. As late as June 8</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">,
he was hitting .219/.250/.271 with just a solitary home run in 164 plate appearances.
Young </span><a href="http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2011/06/is-delmon-young-on-verge-of-breaking.html" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">made
some changes to his swing</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"> – most notably elevating his hands – which helped
bring it all back into sync and restored his power. From June 11</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"> onward, Young hit a much improved .287/.323/.442 with 10 home runs (and another
five home runs in the playoffs with Detroit).</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">Mijares:
“Joe never called for a slider.” Mauer: “I called for a fastball but not over
the plate.” </span><a href="http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2011/06/quick-look-at-mijaresmauer-controversy.html" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">Evidence</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">.</span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">Where
did </span><b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">Trevor Plouffe’s</b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"> sudden home run
power come from? </span><a href="http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2011/07/power-of-plouffe.html" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">A more “calm”
approach at the plate</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">Plenty
of frustrated Twins fans were upset at the decision to unload </span><b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">JJ Hardy</b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"> in the winter of 2010. That
was amplified tenfold when Hardy went off for 30 home runs with the Baltimore
Orioles. Would that have happened if Hardy was in a Twins uniform in 2011? Hard
to say. The Orioles had Hardy make some </span><a href="http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2011/08/changes-have-made-jj-hardy-powerhouse.html" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">changes
in his approach and swing</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;"> which helped him pull pitches with power and turn
on pitches thrown inside.</span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">The
Twins recently signed </span><b style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">Josh Willingham</b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">
to a three-year deal and I applauded the decision as the outfielder is a </span><a href="http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2011/12/josh-willingham-was-built-for-target.html" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">big
pull hitter with a ton of power which should play well at Target Field</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-indent: -0.25in;">.</span></li>
</ul>
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37892113.post-15778130362061140132011-12-22T01:12:00.002-06:002011-12-22T01:21:32.238-06:00Twins close to signing Jason Marquis<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Fox Sport’s <a href="http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/Jason-Marquis-close-to-signing-with-Minnesota-Twins-source-says-122111">Ken
Rosenthal</a> reported last night that the Twins were nearing an agreement with
pitcher Jason Marquis to fill out the remaining open slot in the rotation. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Here’s what I
wrote about him in the <a href="http://twinscentric.com/">TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook</a>:</span></div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">“Jason Marquis’s one redeeming quality
at this point is his ability to induce ground balls as his 54.5% worm-burning
rate was in the top 12 among pitchers who threw a minimum of 120 innings.
Outside of that, he offers very little except for maybe “veteran leadership.”
After a midseason trade to the Diamondbacks, who wanted some of that sweet “VL”
for their youthful rotation, Marquis fractured his fibula and was placed on the
DL for the balance of the season. He’s likely staring down a “make good” type
of contract in the face.”</span></i></blockquote>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">To the first
point – Marquis’s worm-killing abilities – he’s been very good in this
department. Since 2008, while throwing a minimum of 500 innings, Marquis has induced
the ninth-highest rate of groundballs:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div align="center">
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoNormalTable" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-collapse: collapse; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; margin-left: 4.4pt; width: 263px;">
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td nowrap="" style="background: #0F243E; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: text2; mso-background-themeshade: 128; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 95.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="127"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: white; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Name<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #0F243E; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: text2; mso-background-themeshade: 128; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: white; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">GB%<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #0F243E; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: text2; mso-background-themeshade: 128; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 26.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="35"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: white; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">xFIP<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #0F243E; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: text2; mso-background-themeshade: 128; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 28.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="37"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: white; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">WAR<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 95.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="127"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Tim Hudson<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">60.40%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 26.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="35"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">3.64<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 28.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="37"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">9.5<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td nowrap="" style="background: #BFBFBF; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 191; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 95.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="127"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Derek Lowe<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #BFBFBF; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 191; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">58.60%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #BFBFBF; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 191; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 26.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="35"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">3.66<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #BFBFBF; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 191; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 28.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="37"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">12.8<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 95.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="127"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Fausto Carmona<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">56.80%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 26.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="35"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">4.52<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 28.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="37"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">5.7<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td nowrap="" style="background: #BFBFBF; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 191; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 95.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="127"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Aaron Cook<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #BFBFBF; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 191; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">56.50%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #BFBFBF; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 191; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 26.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="35"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">4.22<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #BFBFBF; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 191; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 28.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="37"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">9.4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 5;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 95.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="127"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Justin Masterson<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">56.10%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 26.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="35"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">3.87<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 28.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="37"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">10.6<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 6;">
<td nowrap="" style="background: #BFBFBF; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 191; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 95.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="127"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Ricky Romero<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #BFBFBF; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 191; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">54.60%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #BFBFBF; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 191; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 26.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="35"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">3.82<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #BFBFBF; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 191; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 28.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="37"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">9.8<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 7;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 95.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="127"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Joel Pineiro<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">53.70%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 26.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="35"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">3.94<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 28.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="37"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">9.4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 8;">
<td nowrap="" style="background: #BFBFBF; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 191; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 95.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="127"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Trevor Cahill<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #BFBFBF; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 191; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">53.30%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #BFBFBF; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 191; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 26.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="35"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">4.23<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #BFBFBF; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 191; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 28.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="37"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">5.3<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 9; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 95.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="127"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<i><span style="color: #c00000; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Jason Marquis<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<i><span style="color: #c00000; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">52.90%<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 26.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="35"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<i><span style="color: #c00000; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">4.48<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 28.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="37"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<i><span style="color: #c00000; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">7<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Now, in 2010,
with a combination of JJ Hardy and Orlando Hudson patrolling the middle of the diamond,
this might have been significant “get” for the Twins. Comparatively, last year’s
model was nowhere close to the ’10 version. The more recent model managed to
convert 73.1% of all grounders into outs which wound up being <a href="http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2011/08/twins-infield-needs-work-this-winter.html">the
worst conversation rate in all of baseball</a>. Yes, the Twins did bring in
Jamey Carroll this winter to cut down on the amount of blatant mistakes made by
the ’11 shortstops but at his age, his <a href="http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2011/11/twins-sign-jamey-carroll-it-aint-that.html">range
is far from being someone able to elevate a ground-ball pitcher’s game</a>. While
singles through the hole are not the source of major damage, we’ve seen what it
can do when a pitcher has to throw more pitches, with more runners on base and gives
the other team opportunity to connect with a big blast. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">What exacerbated
this problem further is that the entire staff (with the exception of Scott
Baker and Francisco Liriano) was all cut from the pitch-to-contact clothe. The
Twins rotation only struck out 14.8% of batters faced – second-lowest only
ahead of Pittsburgh in 2011. Because of this woeful ability to avoid contact,
the presumption was that the rotation needed to inject someone with a power arm
capable of registering strikeouts. Unfortunately, Marquis does not help fit
this bill at all: Since 2008, he’s 12.4% strikeout percentage has been the
eighth-lowest in baseball. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Likewise, the
Twins have long favored control artists, those that eschew walks and force
hitters to put the ball into play. While Marquis gets plenty of in-play
results, he is actually a bit on the erratic side when it comes to not allowing
walks -- issuing free passes in 8.6 percent of plate appearances. Combine this
abnormally high walk rate (for a control-based pitcher anyways) with a low
strikeout rate and Marquis owns the second-lowest strikeouts-to-walk rate dating
back to ’08 (1.44 K/BB). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Many probably
want to compare Marquis to Carl Pavano based on their similar styles, peripherals,
contact rates and batted ball results. Judging solely on those traits, yes, Marquis
and Pavano are quite similar. The significant difference is what kind of pitches
the pair get hitters to put into play. Since 2008, Pavano has been the foremost
expert at getting hitters to chase after his pitch out of the strike zone (he’s
gotten 33.9% of all out-of-zone pitches) meaning opponents are putting more “bad
pitches” into play. In that same time, Marquis has been the fifth-worst in
baseball at getting opponents to stray after pitches (just 25.7% swing rate at
all out-of-zone pitches). Only Livan Hernandez, Brad Penny, Trevor Cahill and
Aaron Cook have been worse than Marquis. To summarize: When Pavano misses the
zone, he gets hitters to chase. When Marquis misses the zone, hitters hold and
frequently draw walks. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Those are the
essential shortcomings for the Twins in signing a guy like Marquis – he doesn’t
fit the defense personnel (one that might be better at catching flies), could
bring down the strikeout rate and walks a high proportion of hitters. On the
other hand, Marquis is fairly consistent when healthy and able to throw over
190+ innings. (His season-ending injury in 2011, a <a href="http://arizona.diamondbacks.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=18024667&c_id=ari">fractured
fibula courtesy of an Angel Pegan grounder off the leg</a>, does not suggest
that he will have any problems staying healthy in 2012.) The Twins need some
stability in the rotation and reduce the need for the bullpen (which already
figures to be fairly weak in depth). That’s about the best thing you can say
about Marquis – he can provide stability – outside of that, do not anticipate
too much. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Addendum: The bone chips which
required surgery in 2010 does raise a bit of a red flag. In 2010, then with the
Washington Nationals, Marquis was experiencing discomfort in his elbow. He attempted
to rest and rehab through it but during a rehab start bone chips in his pitching
elbow flared up and he decided to move forward with surgery. Like <a href="http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2011/02/reason-to-be-concerned-over-bakers.html">Nathan,
Baker and Blackburn before him</a>, it is possible that Marquis might eventually
run down the same path where the trio of Twins needed additional time on the DL
or, in Nathan’s case, Tommy John surgery. However, his pain-free 2011 season
may be an indication that the bone chip issue did not or possibly will not
reoccur. <o:p></o:p></span></i></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37892113.post-42931131397291925112011-12-13T23:41:00.001-06:002011-12-13T23:42:46.132-06:00Why Josh Willingham was built for Target Field<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">After engaging in a waiting game with corner outfield incumbent
Michael Cuddyer, the Twins appear poised to move on to the <a href="http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/blogs/135546183.html">next option
in Josh Willingham</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As both <a href="http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Mackey_Allowing_Cuddyer_to_walk_could_help_Twins_now_and_in_future121211">Phil
Mackey</a> and <a href="http://aarongleeman.com/2011/12/12/michael-cuddyer-or-josh-willingham/">Aaron
Gleeman</a> pointed out yesterday, the decision to move from Cuddyer to Willingham
isn’t just based on their performance but also the additional picks that come
with allowing Cuddyer to walk. From an organization-building standpoint,
landing two free draft picks is a wise decision in and of itself. Then, on top
of that, the team is able to <a href="http://twitter.com/#!/JoeCStrib/status/146804857368625154">sign
Willingham for $3M less overall</a> than the offer to Cuddyer (which may even
be $7M in savings if Cuddyer gets his $30M that has been floated out by several
national writers). It all adds up to the right move by the Twins
decision-makers. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">What’s more, despite having similar offensive production
the past two seasons, there is another advantage to signing Willingham if you
consider his style might be better suited for Target Field.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The Twins organization puts a great amount of pride on
getting their hitters to use the entire field. Unfortunately, in Minneapolis
today, that gets you diddley-squat. According to observations made by Delmon
Young in October, </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">the former Twin said the configurations and <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/05/sports/baseball/with-tigers-delmon-young-gets-new-lease-in-playoffs.html?_r=2">the
environment made using the entire field nearly impossible</a>:</span></span></div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">“Target Field changed my
whole field of hitting. I usually tried to use the middle of the field, and if
I pulled, I pulled, and if I went the other way, I went the other way.</span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">At Target Field, when
those balls turn into can-of-corn outs and I was fighting for playing time over
there, I couldn’t afford to have a flyout to deep right field. I had to try to
pull the ball to get a base hit.”</span> </blockquote>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: #FBFEFA; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 5.0pt;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As it turns out, Young
was correct. Most of the home runs hit at Target Field by right-handers were <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhR2sBx53PaaTjzUzhf0eahEETp1FhwVjBizHSrSeS-ZnZKNV9YmCLbaGOXyjeDhzxldphw9WicgB31Q19sOo_2NirACKkxVo-fZzBJfjv4p3BTlxT3edZJbmepnDW3Qd2DjupvsA/s1600/Target+Field_RHB_2011.JPG">pulled,
a dozen were hit to left-center, five to center and just three went opposite
field</a>. This was a huge drop-off from production at the Metrodome when
right-handers had 20 home runs to center and right field in 2009. If the Twins
were going to get a right-hander with home run power, they would need to
acquire a pull hitter to thrive at Target Field. That’s where Josh Willingham
comes in.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: #FBFEFA; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 5.0pt;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In the simplest terms, Willingham is that dead-pull
hitter the Twins need:</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: #FBFEFA; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 5.0pt;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinrRAzbM937w-ml7G-wkWaBTe-CaISUWV0xAoBVOFKBdux1kCSFkk2FD1l7VdTdDSKrJaz7gH9uDRsLhuRp979aIglDi5NP-VQ8ZJrMcjFgNNXQgaMm4KzCu4g2sqA1CSa4ZryoQ/s1600/Willingham_Spray+Chart.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="315" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinrRAzbM937w-ml7G-wkWaBTe-CaISUWV0xAoBVOFKBdux1kCSFkk2FD1l7VdTdDSKrJaz7gH9uDRsLhuRp979aIglDi5NP-VQ8ZJrMcjFgNNXQgaMm4KzCu4g2sqA1CSa4ZryoQ/s320/Willingham_Spray+Chart.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background: #FBFEFA; line-height: 13.5pt; margin-bottom: 5.0pt;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 14px;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As you can see from his spray chart taken from the past
two seasons, Willingham favors yanking the ball down the line – and this method
has paid dividends for the 32-year-old outfielder. Over the past three seasons
his weighted on-base average has been the seventh-best while his isolated power
numbers (ISO) have been the fourth-highest among qualified hitters. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div align="center">
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoNormalTable" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-collapse: collapse; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; margin-left: 4.65pt; width: 327px;">
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td colspan="4" nowrap="" style="background: #0F243E; border: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: text2; mso-background-themeshade: 128; mso-border-alt: solid #0D0D0D .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 242; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 242; mso-border-themetint: 242; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 245.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="327"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: white;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Highest wOBA when pulling (2009-2011)<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #0D0D0D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 242; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 242; mso-border-themetint: 242; mso-border-top-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 242; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 101.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="135"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Name<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 242; mso-border-left-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 242; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 242; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 242; mso-border-top-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 242; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">PA<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 242; mso-border-left-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 242; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 242; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 242; mso-border-top-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 242; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">ISO<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 242; mso-border-left-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 242; mso-border-right-alt: solid #0D0D0D .5pt; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 242; mso-border-right-themetint: 242; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 242; mso-border-top-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 242; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">wOBA<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td nowrap="" style="background: #D9D9D9; border-top: none; border: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #0D0D0D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 242; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 242; mso-border-themetint: 242; mso-border-top-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 242; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 101.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="135"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Mark Reynolds<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #D9D9D9; border-bottom: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 242; mso-border-left-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 242; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 242; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 242; mso-border-top-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 242; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">462<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #D9D9D9; border-bottom: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 242; mso-border-left-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 242; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 242; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 242; mso-border-top-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 242; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">0.522<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #D9D9D9; border-bottom: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 242; mso-border-left-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 242; mso-border-right-alt: solid #0D0D0D .5pt; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 242; mso-border-right-themetint: 242; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 242; mso-border-top-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 242; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">0.596<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #0D0D0D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 242; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 242; mso-border-themetint: 242; mso-border-top-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 242; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 101.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="135"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Jose Bautista<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 242; mso-border-left-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 242; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 242; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 242; mso-border-top-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 242; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">536<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 242; mso-border-left-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 242; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 242; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 242; mso-border-top-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 242; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">0.577<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 242; mso-border-left-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 242; mso-border-right-alt: solid #0D0D0D .5pt; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 242; mso-border-right-themetint: 242; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 242; mso-border-top-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 242; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">0.594<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td nowrap="" style="background: #D9D9D9; border-top: none; border: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #0D0D0D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 242; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 242; mso-border-themetint: 242; mso-border-top-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 242; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 101.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="135"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Kevin Youkilis<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #D9D9D9; border-bottom: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 242; mso-border-left-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 242; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 242; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 242; mso-border-top-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 242; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">464<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #D9D9D9; border-bottom: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 242; mso-border-left-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 242; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 242; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 242; mso-border-top-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 242; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">0.424<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #D9D9D9; border-bottom: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 242; mso-border-left-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 242; mso-border-right-alt: solid #0D0D0D .5pt; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 242; mso-border-right-themetint: 242; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 242; mso-border-top-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 242; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">0.562<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 5;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #0D0D0D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 242; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 242; mso-border-themetint: 242; mso-border-top-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 242; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 101.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="135"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Curtis Granderson<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 242; mso-border-left-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 242; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 242; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 242; mso-border-top-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 242; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">657<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 242; mso-border-left-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 242; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 242; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 242; mso-border-top-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 242; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">0.503<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 242; mso-border-left-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 242; mso-border-right-alt: solid #0D0D0D .5pt; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 242; mso-border-right-themetint: 242; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 242; mso-border-top-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 242; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">0.560<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 6;">
<td nowrap="" style="background: #D9D9D9; border-top: none; border: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #0D0D0D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 242; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 242; mso-border-themetint: 242; mso-border-top-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 242; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 101.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="135"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Carlos Gonzalez<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #D9D9D9; border-bottom: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 242; mso-border-left-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 242; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 242; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 242; mso-border-top-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 242; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">424<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #D9D9D9; border-bottom: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 242; mso-border-left-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 242; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 242; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 242; mso-border-top-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 242; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">0.436<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #D9D9D9; border-bottom: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 242; mso-border-left-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 242; mso-border-right-alt: solid #0D0D0D .5pt; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 242; mso-border-right-themetint: 242; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 242; mso-border-top-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 242; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">0.553<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 7;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #0D0D0D .5pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 242; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 242; mso-border-themetint: 242; mso-border-top-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 242; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 101.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="135"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Miguel Cabrera<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 242; mso-border-left-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 242; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 242; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 242; mso-border-top-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 242; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">559<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 242; mso-border-left-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 242; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 242; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 242; mso-border-top-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 242; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">0.433<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 242; mso-border-left-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 242; mso-border-right-alt: solid #0D0D0D .5pt; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 242; mso-border-right-themetint: 242; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 242; mso-border-top-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 242; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">0.549<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 8; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td nowrap="" style="background: #D9D9D9; border-top: none; border: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-bottom-alt: .5pt; mso-border-color-alt: #0D0D0D; mso-border-left-alt: .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: .75pt; mso-border-style-alt: solid; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 242; mso-border-themetint: 242; mso-border-top-alt: .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 242; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 101.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="135"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Josh Willingham<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #D9D9D9; border-bottom: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid #0D0D0D .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 242; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 242; mso-border-left-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 242; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 242; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 242; mso-border-top-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 242; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">490<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #D9D9D9; border-bottom: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid #0D0D0D .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 242; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 242; mso-border-left-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 242; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 242; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 242; mso-border-top-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 242; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">0.461<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #D9D9D9; border-bottom: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid #0D0D0D 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-bottom-alt: .5pt; mso-border-bottom-themecolor: text1; mso-border-bottom-themetint: 242; mso-border-color-alt: #0D0D0D; mso-border-left-alt: .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-left-themecolor: text1; mso-border-left-themetint: 242; mso-border-right-alt: .5pt; mso-border-right-themecolor: text1; mso-border-right-themetint: 242; mso-border-style-alt: solid; mso-border-themecolor: text1; mso-border-themetint: 242; mso-border-top-alt: .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid #0D0D0D .75pt; mso-border-top-themecolor: text1; mso-border-top-themetint: 242; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64"><div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: right;">
<i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">0.544<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Willingham’s pull-power served him well last year in
Oakland where he slugged a robust .523 at the O.co Coliseum (O.co? We’re coming
very close to having something named “Preparation H Arena” as seen in <i>BASEketball</i>, aren’t we?) when all
right-handers only managed to .363 (only eight other stadiums were tougher on
right-handed hitters in baseball last year). By comparison, righties compiled a
.417 slugging percentage at Target Field. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">What makes Willingham so exceptionally good at pulling
the ball is his ability to hit the ball out in front:<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhs782fSNQ_VliOMu8CfewPq-QfwtQvfxn1ZJ_AoaE-QG1Bc_yRCjP-k2ZPHrz3vCEJUXBn_6vLm-DBdlRREFpBYNzKnURoYT8TqM4SUDH5Qdugc7ZydBUyVV2hxPxoi5hyphenhyphentulBsA/s1600/Willingham_AsHome2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="255" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhs782fSNQ_VliOMu8CfewPq-QfwtQvfxn1ZJ_AoaE-QG1Bc_yRCjP-k2ZPHrz3vCEJUXBn_6vLm-DBdlRREFpBYNzKnURoYT8TqM4SUDH5Qdugc7ZydBUyVV2hxPxoi5hyphenhyphentulBsA/s320/Willingham_AsHome2.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_B-0Dt0LAZx8qxaEt1Mt8zbsvh0AgDy_66CoeFyfZFzNU4DUQdJc9Iqtx8KFaMcH13Ao_9NMhq1rkX9CQQ-rpwl4njbbZ9lmvFXv1gK5i8cX-JmIp28DIoJL0wNpUyqkpoRH2Wg/s1600/Willingham_Toronto.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="273" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_B-0Dt0LAZx8qxaEt1Mt8zbsvh0AgDy_66CoeFyfZFzNU4DUQdJc9Iqtx8KFaMcH13Ao_9NMhq1rkX9CQQ-rpwl4njbbZ9lmvFXv1gK5i8cX-JmIp28DIoJL0wNpUyqkpoRH2Wg/s320/Willingham_Toronto.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLZe7O-sCE0PTLPYdS0YqNr26mdnc1Jlp43Tl-STarM90wOLeq9XA3sIvVtmg4UnND3nvDrPkmkE2lhDuo8VD3pQ2IdwDAqR20816BXxpHlJiCThCnmcQI2orBEN8OCRutNmjYVA/s1600/Willingham_AsHome.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="262" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLZe7O-sCE0PTLPYdS0YqNr26mdnc1Jlp43Tl-STarM90wOLeq9XA3sIvVtmg4UnND3nvDrPkmkE2lhDuo8VD3pQ2IdwDAqR20816BXxpHlJiCThCnmcQI2orBEN8OCRutNmjYVA/s320/Willingham_AsHome.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 18px;">In addition to making contact out in front, Willingham
draws his power from a stiff front leg which helps with leverage and keeps his
hands inside as his back arm stays close to his body at a little over a 90
degree angle – otherwise known as the “Power L” position. This combination,
plus his natural strength, has led to a home run every 18.6 at bats since 2009.</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 18px;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In theory, this package should play much better within the
home confines as opposed to Michael Cuddyer’s approach of using the entire
field. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjM6JRHlN9Wi906LEVqydjHj_7wlP5AcSCRkCrUe-rtDEiM480V3q1fnz7mUIWGINxk8d2rYPz8gK4ltnNnKsUqXxQ8Zo7u6Da4CVFBM3Dy1MEQJcRpQ_Lo18znjUNa3APOG3KbFA/s1600/Cuddyer_Spray+Chart.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="308" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjM6JRHlN9Wi906LEVqydjHj_7wlP5AcSCRkCrUe-rtDEiM480V3q1fnz7mUIWGINxk8d2rYPz8gK4ltnNnKsUqXxQ8Zo7u6Da4CVFBM3Dy1MEQJcRpQ_Lo18znjUNa3APOG3KbFA/s320/Cuddyer_Spray+Chart.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 14px;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Cuddyer, a strong individual in his own right, allows pitches
to get much further into the zone and therefore winds up with a much more even
distribution of hits to all fields. As such, the vast majority of his home runs
also have left the yard in the left-center gap – a more difficult act to do on
a regular basis at Target Field – versus close to the left field foul pole where
Willingham’s home runs land.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgd-2ZN870Fpc-fQ1x5ZJVlK0V2rhFvvoQcJXB-j5LAp20e8FegVBF3IELpK4F85bG_bwJIozg7pgqEKBTSCjSk_5InUglBt0BiPwZo_vh4x0S_tmq5HiCvzOIuTVf9__bP2sfGhQ/s1600/Cuddyer_Home2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="260" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgd-2ZN870Fpc-fQ1x5ZJVlK0V2rhFvvoQcJXB-j5LAp20e8FegVBF3IELpK4F85bG_bwJIozg7pgqEKBTSCjSk_5InUglBt0BiPwZo_vh4x0S_tmq5HiCvzOIuTVf9__bP2sfGhQ/s320/Cuddyer_Home2.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgte_fuQB609PnSfmAHMzbGCI6Xq_oLjrGBRzZWVhbo0C79Zppu_LW20ofID77a1tTHTSYbeTYbiVmA5_FvRhpC_6BvNWNGhLUBV0ub1WKXdF1cgfRV7pI9ylP7IzFhmkP7NXvpPQ/s1600/Cuddyer_Home.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="249" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgte_fuQB609PnSfmAHMzbGCI6Xq_oLjrGBRzZWVhbo0C79Zppu_LW20ofID77a1tTHTSYbeTYbiVmA5_FvRhpC_6BvNWNGhLUBV0ub1WKXdF1cgfRV7pI9ylP7IzFhmkP7NXvpPQ/s320/Cuddyer_Home.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This isn’t to say anything that what Cuddyer is doing is
bad, per se; it’s just the way he’s designed. Of course, these are just
examples as he certainly does hit some out in front that travel a long ways but
overall, he thrives on being the type of hitter that can poke an outside pitch
to right or send one back up the middle. For Willingham, that’s basically
unheard of. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">While it may have been Cuddyer’s attempt at a polite
kiss-off by not accepting the offer, it could end up doing the team a huge
service by giving them two draft picks, payroll relief and a player better
suited for Target Field in Josh Willingham. </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com28tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37892113.post-88059306986733414302011-12-13T11:39:00.000-06:002011-12-13T11:39:48.083-06:00The Great DiamondCentric T-Shirt Giveaway<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://diamondcentric.myshopify.com/">DiamondCentric</a> has teamed up with <a href="http://tktwincities.com/">tkTwinCities</a>, a website dedicated to giving
20-somethings all the local happenings, to giveaway free DC t-shirts to their
readers. First, read <a href="http://tktwincities.com/2011/12/13/holiday-giveaway-week-diamondcentric/">my
piece on how we started DiamondCentric and our unintentional guerrilla marketing
tactics</a> on the tkTwinCities.com website. After that, log on to Twitter and tweet why
you want or need a free shirt with the hashtag #tkTC. Three winners will be
selected. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If you don't win, remember, we have a $15 sale now through Christmas on all Game Six, The Killer and Nothing Runs Like Revere shirts. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Good luck!</span><o:p></o:p></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37892113.post-43363044732402646282011-12-09T11:46:00.002-06:002011-12-09T11:46:59.263-06:00The Twins are playing the waiting game with Cuddyer. Is it worth it?<br />
<div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Since the Twins locked up Jamey Carroll, Ryan Doumit and Matt Capps, their interest in the free agent market is at a standstill. That logjam is none other than Michael Cuddyer.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The Twins reportedly have an offer on the table for the veteran, one that is worth <a href="http://twitter.com/#!/Jon_Heyman/status/144088286007275520" style="color: #0b478d; text-decoration: none;">three years and $24 million</a>, and are waiting for a decision.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The waiting game on Cuddyer is contingent on him exploring his option on the free agent market. In some ways that market has dried up but there are some suitors that could come into play quickly.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The Red Sox have entertained the thought but have stated their focus is on pitching not offense at the moment. Although the once aggressive Philadelphia Phillies have landed Ty Wigginton and Laynce Nix and recanted their interest, the Colorado Rockies, who have been shucking payroll left and right this offseason, are <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/12/rockies-considering-three-year-offer-to-cuddyer.html" style="color: #0b478d; text-decoration: none;">considering placing a three-year offer</a> in front of Cuddyer’s agent. Meanwhile, the now Pujols-less St. Louis Cardinals have a ton of money to spend and could very well be in the market for a corner outfielder/first baseman-type. Similarly, the Baltimore Orioles, just a hop-skip-and-jump from his hometown, discussed the idea of signing him but haven’t been active.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Despite all of that interest from other teams, according to <a href="http://twitter.com/?iid=am-111949529413234034294276467&nid=23+sender&uid=47461065&utm_content=profile#!/LindsayGuentzel/status/144932839232778241" style="color: #0b478d; text-decoration: none;">Lindsay Guentzel</a>, word from Cuddyer’s camp is that he would like to stay in Minnesota and will do so if the offer was for $2 million more or a fourth year was added.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As it stands, the value of the contract – roughly $8 million per season – is a reasonable expectation to meet according to Fangraphs.com’s Value system. Outside of his 2010 and injury-filled 2008 seasons, Cuddyer has exceeded the $10 million mark dating back to 2006. If the bidding starting to increase above the $10 million annual rate, the likelihood of being able to match that with his production decreases:</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="background-color: white; border-bottom-style: none; border-collapse: collapse; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; color: #333333; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 117.9pt; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: #0f243e; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-style: solid; border-left-width: 1pt; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1pt; border-top-color: windowtext; border-top-style: solid; border-top-width: 1pt; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0in; padding-left: 5.4pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; padding-top: 0in; width: 292.5pt;" valign="top" width="390"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: white;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Michael Cuddyer’s Value<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-style: solid; border-left-width: 1pt; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1pt; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: none; border-top-width: initial; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0in; padding-left: 5.4pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; padding-top: 0in; width: 130.5pt;" valign="top" width="174"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: center;">
<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Year<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-left-width: initial; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1pt; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: none; border-top-width: initial; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0in; padding-left: 5.4pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; padding-top: 0in; width: 2.25in;" valign="top" width="216"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: center;">
<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Value<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: #d9d9d9; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-style: solid; border-left-width: 1pt; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1pt; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: none; border-top-width: initial; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0in; padding-left: 5.4pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; padding-top: 0in; width: 130.5pt;" valign="top" width="174"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: center;">
<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2006<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td><td style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: #d9d9d9; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-left-width: initial; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1pt; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: none; border-top-width: initial; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0in; padding-left: 5.4pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; padding-top: 0in; width: 2.25in;" valign="top" width="216"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">$11.2<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-style: solid; border-left-width: 1pt; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1pt; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: none; border-top-width: initial; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0in; padding-left: 5.4pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; padding-top: 0in; width: 130.5pt;" valign="top" width="174"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: center;">
<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2007<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-left-width: initial; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1pt; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: none; border-top-width: initial; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0in; padding-left: 5.4pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; padding-top: 0in; width: 2.25in;" valign="top" width="216"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">$10.1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: #d9d9d9; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-style: solid; border-left-width: 1pt; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1pt; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: none; border-top-width: initial; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0in; padding-left: 5.4pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; padding-top: 0in; width: 130.5pt;" valign="top" width="174"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: center;">
<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2008<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td><td style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: #d9d9d9; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-left-width: initial; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1pt; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: none; border-top-width: initial; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0in; padding-left: 5.4pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; padding-top: 0in; width: 2.25in;" valign="top" width="216"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">$0.0<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-style: solid; border-left-width: 1pt; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1pt; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: none; border-top-width: initial; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0in; padding-left: 5.4pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; padding-top: 0in; width: 130.5pt;" valign="top" width="174"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: center;">
<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2009<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-left-width: initial; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1pt; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: none; border-top-width: initial; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0in; padding-left: 5.4pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; padding-top: 0in; width: 2.25in;" valign="top" width="216"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">$12.8<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: #d9d9d9; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-style: solid; border-left-width: 1pt; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1pt; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: none; border-top-width: initial; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0in; padding-left: 5.4pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; padding-top: 0in; width: 130.5pt;" valign="top" width="174"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: center;">
<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2010<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td><td style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: #d9d9d9; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-left-width: initial; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1pt; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: none; border-top-width: initial; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0in; padding-left: 5.4pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; padding-top: 0in; width: 2.25in;" valign="top" width="216"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">$3.3<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-left-color: windowtext; border-left-style: solid; border-left-width: 1pt; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1pt; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: none; border-top-width: initial; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0in; padding-left: 5.4pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; padding-top: 0in; width: 130.5pt;" valign="top" width="174"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: center;">
<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2011<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td><td style="border-bottom-color: windowtext; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-width: 1pt; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-left-width: initial; border-right-color: windowtext; border-right-style: solid; border-right-width: 1pt; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: none; border-top-width: initial; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0in; padding-left: 5.4pt; padding-right: 5.4pt; padding-top: 0in; width: 2.25in;" valign="top" width="216"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">$14.0<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The value system takes in account Wins Above Replacement (or WAR), which factors in defense using <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/defense/uzr/" style="color: #0b478d; text-decoration: none;">Ultimate Zone Rating</a> and <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/offense/wraa/" style="color: #0b478d; text-decoration: none;">weighted Runs Above Replacement</a>, and research has shown that in order to purchase one WAR on the market, it will cost approximately $4.5 million. So, in Cuddyer’s case, his 2011 season was measured at 3.1 WAR (or a three-win player) which works out to $14 million. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As decent as his season was last year, it is even likelier that if he didn’t receive a Jeremy Guthrie fastball to the wrist, he would have had an even better 2011 season.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Admittedly, it was noble of him to gut it out through the sore wrist but while the rest of the opening day lineup was drinking Tahitian Treat in the whirlpool, Cuddyer’s on-field performance suffered. Post-wrist injury - from August 22<sup>nd</sup> until the end of the season - Cuddyer manned up for 115 plate appearances, hitting .241/.287/.361 with just eight extra base hits including two home runs. It was a good example to set, however the balky back and the wrist were an obvious substantial power drain. In comparison, a healthy Cuddy was on pace to put up some very big numbers, hitting .295/.360/.485 with 18 home runs through his first 469 plate appearances. To put that in perspective, he went from hitting a home run once every 26 plate appearances to once every 57.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">People harp on his defensive play – yes, he’s no speedster in the outfield – but this year he showed a much improved ability to patrol right field for the Twins.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Consider this: In 2010, <a href="http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2010/10/did-cuddyers-knee-diminish-his-power.html" style="color: #0b478d; text-decoration: none;">when he had his knee issues</a>, Cuddyer managed to get to 102 of the 116 plays within a standard right fielder’s zone (a .879 revised zone rating). Additionally, he was able to track down 15 more outs that were not in the standard right fielder’s zone. This amounted to a -20.6 ultimate zone rating – the third-lowest mark among right fielders with a minimum of 500 defensive innings. Meanwhile, he showed an impressive turnaround in 2011. This past year, working 639 innings in right Cuddyer was able to making plays on 101 of the 108 balls in his zone which led to a revised zoning rating of .935 (a career best for him). On top of that he nabbed an extra 41 plays on out of zone plays leading to an ultimate zone rating of 0.1. It is hard to gauge any defensive metrics on one year samplings but that is still an impressive improvement - particularly in his ability to get to out-of-zone plays. Did a healthy knee provide him with better wheels to chase down those extra plays? Or was it simply being position well by the coaching staff?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If he is able to sustain the 2011 level of defense next year – which at his age it is certainly not a given - he would not be such a liability in the field. Furthermore, with Justin Morneau’s ability to play first base in question, Cuddyer gives the Twins a player who has manned first in recent history (Ryan Doumit has played all of 251 innings at first and just 43 since 2006).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">One area of the game in which he excels is his ownership over left-handed pitching. In the past two seasons, Cuddyer has posted a .929 OPS against southpaws – the third-highest among remaining free agents – and the Twins currently lack right-handed depth on the roster of that caliber. On the other hand, while that is considerable production, not far behind Cuddyer on that list are free agents Jonny Gomes (.859 OPS), Josh Willingham (.827) and Kelly Shoppach (.804). Those players may be able to be signed at a lower cost and replace Cuddyer’s output against lefties in the lineup but all of them have various flaws as well.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Then there are the numerous “intangibles” that Cuddyer displays which is highly valued.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Just by the hardware he’s brought home recently you can tell how well he is viewed by the organization. He’s won the Twins’ Bob Allison Leadership Award the past three year – bestowed upon the Twins player who best exemplifies determination, hustle, tenacity, competitive spirit and leadership both on and off the field. The past two years he’s won the Mike Augustin Award for the player who fosters a healthy relationship with the media.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Cuddyer oozes charisma all over everything, makes motivational t-shirts for the club, fields the tough post-game questions and apparently intervenes when Kevin Slowey was throwing his verbal feces at the beat writers (or something like that). He is to clubhouse demeanor as to one of those<i>Grey’s Anatomy</i> doctors are to bedside manner (full disclosure: I’ve never seen<i> Grey’s Anatomy</i>) yet odds are that the team would have lost 99 games last year with or without Cuddyer on the roster.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Still, it’s hard to write any of that off as meaningless. Sure, it doesn’t show up in his WAR or in the win column but that doesn’t mean that leadership is valueless. For a team like the Twins, who have plenty of young players taxiing up and down to the majors all the time, what does a clubhouse role model like Cuddyer provide? It is entirely possible that his example of hustle and tenacity rub off over time on the likes of Trevor Plouffe, Rene Tosoni or Joe Benson. It is very difficult to measure an effect like that analytically (if there is an effect at all) and assign a dollar value. At the same time, if you develop your organization well, then you should have various players able to step into that clubhouse leader role. After all, when Torii Hunter left, that created a void for Michael Cuddyer to fill. If Cuddyer leaves, it is definitely possible that someone else will take his place.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Cuddyer turns 33 in March, which means that he is a candidate for skill deterioration throughout the duration of the contract and the chances of injuries increases as well. If the Twins are serious about retaining him, they will also forfeit not one but two draft picks in 2012. Factoring this in, it should be a difficult decision to make, particularly if his asking price grows. The three-year, $24 million offer is completely reasonable but if other teams start driving that figure northward, it behooves the organization to shake hands, thank him for his contributions and move on to plan B. </span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37892113.post-63547748173765659152011-12-06T00:17:00.002-06:002011-12-06T00:21:26.803-06:00Twins bring back Matt Capps to close in 2012<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">When it was
announced that the </span><a href="http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/blogs/135063743.html" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Minnesota Twins
had a deal in place to bring back closer Matt Capps</a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">, the move has been met
with streams of vitriol for the obvious reasons.</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The first and
foremost reason was that Capps’s 2011 season was a big bag of flaming poo.
Elevated back into the closer’s role after Joe Nathan returned prematurely from
Tommy John surgery, Capps struggled to slam the down shut. He blew nine saves –
second-highest in baseball last year – and his 63% save conversion rate was the
lowest among closers with 20 opportunities or more. Adding to the problem was
that Capps’s strikeout numbers, already a fairly low career rate for a closer,
took a nosedive, declining from 20% to 12% as hitters stopped missing on his
offerings altogether. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">From <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=cappsma01&t=p&year=2011&share=0.83#375-398-sum:pitching_gamelogs">June
28th to August 18th</a>, his season bottomed out. In 24 outings in that span,
Capps managed to convert just four saves while blowing three more. He allowed
12 runs in 18.2 innings and posted a gawdawful 3-to-7 strikeouts-to-walk ratio.
Even though it was downplayed in-season and the coaching staff talked about a “mechanical
problem”, I <a href="http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2011/07/concern-for-capps_18.html">sourced
it to an injury problem</a> based on his arm action. It was later in the year
that <a href="http://www.kffl.com/gnews.php?id=729967-twins---matt-capps-went-through-dead-arm-stage">he
admitted to having a “dead arm”</a> and it was revealed more recently that his
forearm was strained. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">To make
matter worse, the Twins, by the grace of the restructured collective bargaining
agreement, were given a free draft pick for Matt Capps. Instead of being a Type
A free agent who the Twins would have had no interest in extending arbitration
to thereby unable to collect on any potential draft picks, the Lords of the
Realm granted Capps amnesty from Type A status – giving the Twins a
supplemental round pick (between the first and second rounds) – if another team
signed him.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">For teams
interested in keeping their internal pipeline of prospects flowing, this was an
ideal situation. It is this type of decision-making that keeps the Tampa Bay
Rays in continual contention while keeping their overall budget low. So, the
Twins would land another prospect and could redirect that money they would have
spent retaining Capps on another similar or better relief arm. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Perhaps it
was because they believe that they wanted to curb their investment in this year’s
draft (they do have the number two pick as well as up to three more
supplemental picks if Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel sign elsewhere). Perhaps
it was because they looked at this year’s draft class and determined – like Keith
Law noted – it will be weaker than the previous drafts. Or perhaps they just loved the idea of the guy
who “takes the ball everyday” despite being hurt in 2011 and genuinely believe
he is poised for a rebound year. Whatever the reason, the Twins decided to turn
down the free draft pick that fell into their laps. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The idea of
declining free money is hard to fathom for this franchise, and that is the
hardest pill to swallow when it comes to analyzing this deal, but all else
being equal, I don’t hate it. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">While holding
the belief that the closer’s role is often overvalued and overpaid on the free
market, I had <a href="http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2011/12/twins-should-put-their-closer-search-on.html">encouraged
the Twins to holster their search for one</a>, citing the methods of the
aforementioned Rays who have made fiscally prudent decisions by signing an arm
like Kyle Farnsworth – a guy who was written off as unable to handle high
pressure situations by Baseball Prospectus – only to thrive as a closer for
Tampa. There are plenty of arms on the market
that fit the same profile as Farnsworth and likely would have been obtained at
a similar pay grade (one-year, $2.6M). In many respects, Matt Capps also fits
in that group. Sure, he does have nearly the impressive strikeout pedigree even
when healthy as a Farnsworth but he throws strikes, limits base-runners and
could be signed at a reduced rate coming off the bad season. The $4.75M is
twice as much as what the Rays paid Farnsworth but it isn’t an outrageous
amount to hand to Capps (unlike the $7M they burnt on his last year) and,
according to Fangraphs.com’s valuation system, he’s been able to come very
close or match that value in three of his last five seasons. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The Twins believe
that Capps will have a bounce-back year and that is a completely reasonable
expectation. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">One of the
reasons his strikeout rate plummeted so greatly was undoubtedly due to his
forearm pain. In 2010 his biggest strikeout pitch was his slider as 20 percent
of plate appearances were strikeouts on that pitch. Additionally, hitters swung
chased after 39 percent of sliders thrown out of the strike zone. This past
season, just 7 percent of plate appearances ended on a strikeout from his
slider and opponents chased just 29 percent percent of all out-of-zone sliders.
Also worth noting is that his slider’s groundball rate dropped from 44 percent
in ’10 to 34 percent in ’11. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div align="center">
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td colspan="4" style="background: #0F243E; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: text2; mso-background-themeshade: 128; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 383.0pt;" valign="top" width="511"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: white;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Matt
Capps’s Slider (2010-2011)<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 95.75pt;" valign="top" width="128"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 95.75pt;" valign="top" width="128"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">K%<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 95.75pt;" valign="top" width="128"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Chase%<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 95.75pt;" valign="top" width="128"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Groundball%<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="background: #D9D9D9; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 95.75pt;" valign="top" width="128"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">MLB
avg<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #D9D9D9; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 95.75pt;" valign="top" width="128"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">29%<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #D9D9D9; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 95.75pt;" valign="top" width="128"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">33%<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #D9D9D9; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 95.75pt;" valign="top" width="128"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<i><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">46%<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 95.75pt;" valign="top" width="128"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2011<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 95.75pt;" valign="top" width="128"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">7%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 95.75pt;" valign="top" width="128"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">29%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 95.75pt;" valign="top" width="128"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">34%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="background: #D9D9D9; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 95.75pt;" valign="top" width="128"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2010<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #D9D9D9; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 95.75pt;" valign="top" width="128"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">20%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #D9D9D9; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 95.75pt;" valign="top" width="128"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">39%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #D9D9D9; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 95.75pt;" valign="top" width="128"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">44%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">According to
Pitch F/X data, Capps’s 2011 slider did not demonstrate nearly the same amount
of run and drop it did 2010. Also, velocity-wise he was throwing it nearly two
miles an hour harder this past year as well:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2hh6qnU6qmgSY8TQVlfgWigawDaGwlvb2YXHUUZFG5GIOTnUw7R6D4Zed4C4NMZWWO3Ojuez41-llHmcv04iO0oY8ovUWayZ9coua344LyV7wukYYzV5I6pa9UIz_vX57OJnfNg/s1600/Capps_Slider.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="147" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2hh6qnU6qmgSY8TQVlfgWigawDaGwlvb2YXHUUZFG5GIOTnUw7R6D4Zed4C4NMZWWO3Ojuez41-llHmcv04iO0oY8ovUWayZ9coua344LyV7wukYYzV5I6pa9UIz_vX57OJnfNg/s400/Capps_Slider.jpg" width="400" /></span></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">What you see
here is that whereas a majority of Capps’s sliders had a spin angle between 60
and 120 degrees in 2010, this last year a more substantial portion of his slide
pieces fell between 120-to -180 degrees – a range closer to that of a fastball.
So in 2011 his main secondary offering now looked more like his fastball and
hitters were able to either hold up their swing or punish the pitch. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Given his forearm
injury, it is easy to see why he struggled with his slider. The mechanics of
the slider require a fairly strong wrist/forearm combination to execute and
with a weak link in the chain, the results often are bad. So, with a healthy forearm,
I would anticipate a revival of sorts for this pitch and with it, an increase
in his strikeout count. Still, I can’t say with the utmost confidence that
Capps will be 100% throughout the 2012 season. As I <a href="http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2011/07/concern-for-capps_18.html">outlined
last year</a>, his arm action – one in which he cocks his elbow above shoulder
level – has been identified by biomechanics as an attribute that leads to arm
injuries and one that could have incited the forearm pain. Because of this
delivery, it seems there would always be the possibility of another flare up. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Truthfully, I
don’t think this move is as egregious as the crowd would like people to
believe. Yes, the draft pick decision was a wasteful maneuver but given both
the surplus of picks in the first and supplemental round as well as the fact
that the organization likely did not count on even having the Capps pick until
after the CBA was renewed, declining one is not the end of the world nor the
mark of a bad front office. In terms of the contract, the one-year deal for
$4.75M isn’t completely out of line. And, as I mentioned before, Capps has
managed to produce at that value level in the past and that is a substantial
savings for the cost of a free market “experienced closer”.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37892113.post-34663927284537426742011-12-05T00:44:00.000-06:002011-12-05T00:44:36.695-06:00Rumors swirl as winter meetings begin<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The <a href="http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/wintermeetings.jsp">GM
Winter Meetings</a> starts today in Dallas and the event holds plenty of
promise for adding new faces to the roster - including potentially finding a
starting pitcher to complete the rotation.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The Twins
were aggressive with the left-handed Chris Capuano but ultimately lost out to
the <a href="http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/12/02/dodgers-sign-chris-capuano-to-two-year-10-million-deal/">Los
Angeles Dodgers when the veteran decided to sign for a two-year, $10 million</a>
to stay in the National League last week. Nevertheless, reports surfaced that
the <a href="http://mlbbuzz.yardbarker.com/blog/mlbbuzz/sources_twins_interested_in_francis_jackson/8475289">team
has been connected to free agents Jeff Francis and Edwin Jackson</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Jackson is a
fairly young (28), right-handed power arm (averages 94.5 miles per hour on his
fastball) who has been a 3-wins above replacement the previous two seasons and
is now poised to command a multi-year deal which <a href="http://twinscentric.com/">we estimated to be in the ballpark of three
years at $11 million per year</a>. Francis,
on the other hand, is a slightly older (31 in 2012), left-handed soft-tosser
(managed to average just 84.7 miles per hour on his “heater”) who has averaging
2-wins above replacement the past two years and is fortunate if he gets offered
employment for one year. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The likes of
Jeff Francis and Edwin Jackson couldn’t be any further away from each other on
the pitcher spectrum. Jackson is a hard-throwing fastball/slider guy while
Francis is a control-oriented, slow-slower-and-slowest pitcher. Having interest
in the pair is like being at the bar and trying to decide between a shot of
bourbon or a wine cooler. Yet, when you peeled back some of the data, you can
see that these two have a lot of common ground. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The pairs’
fastballs, with an almost ten mile per hour discrepancy between them, could not
elicit a different response. Some people have actually attempt to compare <a href="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/freepcom_edwin_jackson_drawing_comparisons_to_bob_gibson/">Edwin
Jackson to the legendary Bob Gibson</a>, Jeff Francis’s fastball reminds people
of Debbie Gibson. Still, even with the difference it is amazing that they both
wound up with similar results on the pitch:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td colspan="6" style="background: #0F243E; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: text2; mso-background-themeshade: 128; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 6.65in;" valign="top" width="638">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: white;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Comparing
Fastball Results (2011)<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 82.75pt;" valign="top" width="110">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 82.15pt;" valign="top" width="110">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Velocity<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 84.3pt;" valign="top" width="112">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">%Pitches<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 80.35pt;" valign="top" width="107">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Miss%<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 78.25pt;" valign="top" width="104">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Well-Hit Avg<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 71.0pt;" valign="top" width="95">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Ground Ball%<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="background: #D9D9D9; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 82.75pt;" valign="top" width="110">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Edwin Jackson<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #D9D9D9; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 82.15pt;" valign="top" width="110">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">94.5<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #D9D9D9; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 84.3pt;" valign="top" width="112">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">55%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #D9D9D9; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 80.35pt;" valign="top" width="107">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">10%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #D9D9D9; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 78.25pt;" valign="top" width="104">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">.295<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #D9D9D9; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 71.0pt;" valign="top" width="95">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">44%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 82.75pt;" valign="top" width="110">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Jeff Francis<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 82.15pt;" valign="top" width="110">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">84.7<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 84.3pt;" valign="top" width="112">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">53%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 80.35pt;" valign="top" width="107">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">11%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 78.25pt;" valign="top" width="104">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">.278<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 71.0pt;" valign="top" width="95">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">48%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="background: #D9D9D9; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 82.75pt;" valign="top" width="110">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">MLB Avg<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #D9D9D9; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 82.15pt;" valign="top" width="110">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">92.0<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #D9D9D9; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 84.3pt;" valign="top" width="112">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">62%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #D9D9D9; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 80.35pt;" valign="top" width="107">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">15%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #D9D9D9; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 78.25pt;" valign="top" width="104">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">.248<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #D9D9D9; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 71.0pt;" valign="top" width="95">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">44%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">(via Inside
Edge)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">For the most
part, both of the pitchers’ fastballs were below average in all categories. Jackson
clearly had an advantage in the velocity department as his fastball held the fifth-highest
velocity on average in 2010. Meanwhile Francis had the second slowest fastball
in baseball, trailing the Nationals’ Livan Hernandez for that honor. In spite
of having the livelier fastball, it was Francis who was able to get more
batters to miss. Likewise, it was Francis’s ground ball tendencies that put him
slightly better than the norm and thus likely caused his well-hit average to be
twenty points lower in that category than Jackson. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Jackson,
blessed numbers that set radar gun-enthusiasts hearts aflutter, typically just
hurls his fastball to the fat part of the zone. He is a “here-hit-this” type of
pitcher. As it turns out, opponents do hit it. Conversely, not afforded the
same genetics, Francis is forced to work the outer-half and just off the plate
in attempt to coerce the softer contact. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">What separates
the two pitchers is their secondary offerings. Jackson is reliant on his slider
while Francis works in a changeup. Jackson’s slider has been able to generate a
high percentage of swing-and-misses (34% miss percentage). Francis favors the
changeup which nets him a swing-and-miss of 23% but a high rate of grounders. It
is because of this that Jackson has been able to strikeout 17.2% of hitters
faced while Francis has been only able to whiff 11.3%. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But
strikeouts don’t tell the entire story. Sure, they are a great predictor of
future success but it does not paint a picture of the complete pitcher.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In 2011, both
Jackson and Francis both shared a WHIP of 1.44 - meaning they averaged roughly the
same amount of base-runners over the season. Jackson had struggled with his
control over his career whereas Francis has actually improved his since his
injury, cutting down his walks in the past two years. Both give up a hefty
number of hits. Because of his down-the-middle approach, Jackson had a much
higher line drive rate as hitters were able to square up more. Francis’s
attempts to incite contact indubitably led to base hits. In the end, Jackson
has been roughly one win above replacement better than Francis (or he provided
his team with $5 million in more “value”) yet he will be able to land a deal
worth three times as much as Francis in both years and dollars.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<table align="left" border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoNormalTable" style="border-bottom-style: none; border-collapse: collapse; border-color: initial; border-left-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-top-style: none; border-width: initial; margin-left: 6.75pt; margin-right: 6.75pt; width: 223px;">
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td colspan="2" nowrap="" style="background: #244061; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: accent1; mso-background-themeshade: 128; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 167.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="223">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="color: white; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-themecolor: background1;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Current
Free Agent SP WAR (2011)<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 119.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="159">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Name<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">WAR<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td nowrap="" style="background: #D9D9D9; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 119.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="159">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">C.J. Wilson<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #D9D9D9; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">5.9<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 119.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="159">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<i><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Edwin Jackson<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<i><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">3.8<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td nowrap="" style="background: #D9D9D9; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 119.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="159">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Mark Buehrle<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #D9D9D9; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">3.4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 5;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 119.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="159">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Javier Vazquez<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">3.2<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 6;">
<td nowrap="" style="background: #D9D9D9; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 119.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="159">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Bartolo Colon<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #D9D9D9; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2.9<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 7;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 119.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="159">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<i><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Jeff Francis<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<i><span style="color: red; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2.6<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 8;">
<td nowrap="" style="background: #D9D9D9; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 119.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="159">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Roy Oswalt<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #D9D9D9; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2.5<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 9;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 119.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="159">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Hiroki Kuroda<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2.4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 10;">
<td nowrap="" style="background: #D9D9D9; border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 119.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="159">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Erik Bedard<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="background: #D9D9D9; border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-background-themecolor: background1; mso-background-themeshade: 217; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2.4<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 11; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td nowrap="" style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: .5pt; mso-border-color-alt: windowtext; mso-border-left-alt: .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: .75pt; mso-border-style-alt: solid; mso-border-top-alt: .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 119.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="159">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Paul Maholm<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: .5pt; mso-border-color-alt: windowtext; mso-border-left-alt: .75pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; mso-border-right-alt: .5pt; mso-border-style-alt: solid; mso-border-top-alt: .75pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 48.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="64">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2.1<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Presented
with the option between the two, odds are that the vast majority of fans would
prefer Jackson over Francis eight days a week (I’m certain a quick scroll
through the comments section will validate this). The reality is that likelihood
of landing Jackson, who is one of the top free agents on the market due to a
small pool of starting pitchers and a Scott Boras client, is minimal. As
mentioned above, he stands to collect a decent paycheck for the next few years
which the Twins budget does not appear able to accommodate. And, given the interworking
of his arsenal, I would say that he stands to be overpaid as well.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If you are
looking at it from a purely investment standpoint, for an organization that has
stated it has a $100 million payroll budget, bringing in Francis would make
more sense – giving the team flexibility to address other areas like the
bullpen or an outfielder. Guys like Mark Buehrle and Edwin Jackson are poised
to make northwards of $10 million next year and will provide a small uptick in
value over Francis who will likely make south of $5 million. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Signing
Francis would not be a sexy acquisition in any shape or form. It would be
settling. He has proven capable enough to throw over 180 innings and, even with
an unimpressive repertoire, he has shown that he can almost match Jackson’s
output. With a better defense and a more supportive lineup, Francis has the
potential to post a better season in 2012 than in 2011 – at a reasonable price.</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37892113.post-83842199954587056622011-12-02T00:14:00.000-06:002011-12-02T00:14:34.321-06:00Twins should put their closer search on hold<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">In efforts to
rekindle the passion that has subsided after a disappointing summer, the Twins
hosted yet another one of their fan forums. This time, it was general manager
Terry Ryan’s turn to attempt to talk the disgruntled down from their ledge.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Howard Sinker
listened in on the conference call, one that allowed season ticketholders to
interact with the man in charge of the team’s roster construction, and Sinker
relayed to his <a href="http://twitter.com/#!/afansview">non-season
ticketholding twitter followers the talking points in 140-characters or less</a>.
In outlining his offseason plans, <a href="http://twitter.com/#!/afansview/status/142412353340833792">Ryan said that
two of the immediate priorities</a> were finding a closer as well as another starting
pitcher. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Ryan has made
several mentions of his plans when it comes to addressing the closer’s role. He
told listeners on 1500 ESPN that Glen Perkins was not going to inherit the role
and that he is looking for an “experienced closer.” Last
night, Ryan commented that the Twins are <a href="http://twitter.com/#!/afansview/status/142412480013012993">currently
targeting pitchers outside of the organization</a>, mentioning that that person
could come in the form of a free agent or possibly through a trade. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">The question is,
why are the Twins making finding a closer such a high priority?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">It’s easy to
understand from the team’s perspective. Last year the Twins had 52 save
opportunities and the back of the bullpen managed to hold on to just 62% of
those. That was the lowest save conversion rate for the franchise since the
1997 season team converted on just 61% of their save chances.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">This was
clearly a black-eye for the organization that had prided itself on securing
games for most of the century. After all, since 2002, they have recorded more
saves than Billy Graham. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">But here’s
the thing: those 52 save opportunities were also tied with the Boston Red Sox
for fourth fewest in baseball. Boston’s lack of save opportunities only stems
from having baseball’s most potent offense which averaged 5.4 runs per game.
The Twins, unlike their Red Sox counterparts, were not afforded the same luxury
of running away with ballgames considering they average the second fewest runs
per game in the American League (3.82 runs per game) and the fifth-lowest in
all of baseball. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">And therein lies
the problem. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">The front
office is seemingly trying to stop the bleeding where the team blew a handful of
save opportunities when the real problem is that the majority of their games played
did not require a closer because the bats were flaccid or the starting rotation
failed to keep the game within reach (they allowed 4.96 runs per game,
second-most in baseball) or both. Focusing on a closer now would be like
putting a tourniquet on a paper cut on one leg while the other leg is lopped
off at the knee and still hemorrhaging blood everywhere. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Yes, the
anticipated return of Denard Span, Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer along with the
addition of Ryan Doumit should assist in a modest uptick in offensive production.
Yes, the acquisition of Jamey Carroll should hopefully fortify the middle
infield and support the pitching staff. And perhaps the future addition of
someone like Chris Capuano, <a href="http://twitter.com/?iid=am-212786989413227979201577347&nid=23+sender&uid=47461065&utm_content=profile#!/LaVelleNeal/status/142448751406088192">who
the Twins have expressed interest in</a>, will help solidify the rotation as
Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn all regain their health. Still,
is all of that enough to raise the runs scored and shave off the pitching staff’s
runs allowed – at least to the point where you may be creating more save
opportunities? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">To me, that
is not enough to do so. As <a href="http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/blogs/134752408.html">Joe
Christensen wrote about earlier this week</a>, the team is growing perilously
close to that $100 million mark that was estimated to be the 2012 budget
capacity. At an approximate $87.7 million now, sinking $7 million or more for the
going rate of an “experienced closer” would leave the team front office with $6
million or less to address the other outstanding issues (starting pitcher,
outfielder, bullpen depth, etc).</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Building a
strong bullpen is one thing; doing so by throwing money at a closer with an
extensive resume is the wrong way. Rather than sink money into an experience
closer, the Twins should be taking a cue from the Tampa Bay Rays, who have been
very successful at compiling a relief staff on a shoestring budget. They coaxed
some of the best work out of retreads in Troy Percival and Kyle Farnsworth
while landing Rafael Soriano from Atlanta in a severely lopsided trade in
their favor.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Ultimately, the
Twins will need someone to close but they do not need to land a budget-buster
to do so. Instead of trying to reel in the big closer fish, the Twins should be
targeting the likes of Takashi Saito, who pitched well in the set-up role for the
Brewers after closing for the Dodgers from 2006-2008. Or taking a look Joel
Zumaya who is scheduled to pitch for scouts in mid-December and find out if he
can be this year’s Joaquin Benoit, a recovering power arm in need of a one-year
deal. Heck, find out if the Rangers will part with Koji Uehara, who had a brief
stint as a closer in Baltimore and has the highest K/BB ratio (10.00) among
relievers since 2009 as well as the second highest strikeout percentage (33.6%),
now that Texas has signed Joe Nathan. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">Instead of
allocating a high percentage of what’s left of the 2012 budget on a player
whose contributions may be minimal, the Twins should rededicate that funding
towards the starting rotation, grabbing an outfielder and buttressing the rest
of the bullpen while spending what is <i>leftover
</i>on a closer. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">In the end,
if you don’t have save opportunities, what good is a closer anyway?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">******</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";">DiamondCentric has a special deal for the holidays - <a href="http://diamondcentric.myshopify.com/collections/sale-items">$15 for all Game Six, Nothing Runs Like Revere and The Killer shirts</a>. Get yours for the baseball fan in your life!</span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37892113.post-23986696682814111892011-11-30T21:57:00.000-06:002011-11-30T21:57:33.468-06:00Duensing was made for the bullpen<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">While the
Twins try to piecemeal together their once glorious bullpen that has now been
blown to smithereens, there is one player already on the roster who should help make the
late innings much less of an adventure.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As the <a href="http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/134722978.html">Star Tribune’s
Joe Christensen</a> reported that the team is bumping <b>Brian Duensing</b> from the rotation and relocating him back to the
bullpen.<span class="apple-style-span"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="apple-style-span"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If you separate out the data from Duensing’s match-ups
against same-sided opponents, you would see a pitcher with a tremendous track
record:<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="apple-style-span"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td colspan="6" style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 6.65in;" valign="top" width="638">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Duensing vs Left-Handed Hitters
(2009-11)<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.1pt;" valign="top" width="108">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 80.5pt;" valign="top" width="107">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">PAs <o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 79.35pt;" valign="top" width="106">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">K%<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.1pt;" valign="top" width="108">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">BB%<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.45pt;" valign="top" width="109">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">GB%<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 75.3pt;" valign="top" width="100">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Swg. Str%<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.1pt;" valign="top" width="108">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2009<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 80.5pt;" valign="top" width="107">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">90<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 79.35pt;" valign="top" width="106">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">21.1%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.1pt;" valign="top" width="108">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">6.7%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.45pt;" valign="top" width="109">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">60%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 75.3pt;" valign="top" width="100">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">24%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.1pt;" valign="top" width="108">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2010<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 80.5pt;" valign="top" width="107">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">153<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 79.35pt;" valign="top" width="106">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">22.2%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.1pt;" valign="top" width="108">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">4.6%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.45pt;" valign="top" width="109">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">53%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 75.3pt;" valign="top" width="100">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">28%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.1pt;" valign="top" width="108">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2011<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 80.5pt;" valign="top" width="107">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">187<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 79.35pt;" valign="top" width="106">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">20.3%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.1pt;" valign="top" width="108">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">3.2%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.45pt;" valign="top" width="109">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">55%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 75.3pt;" valign="top" width="100">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">23%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="apple-style-span"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">(via Fangraphs & Inside Edge)<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="apple-style-span"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="apple-style-span"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Last season, Duensing held lefties to a .210 batting average
against, the 14<sup>th</sup>-lowest among qualified MLB starters last year.
What’s more is that Inside Edge’s video scouts found that lefties had a .103
well-hit average off of him – the best in baseball - meaning that nobody on the
left was able to put good wood on the ball. <o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="apple-style-span"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="apple-style-span"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">He absolutely stunned them with his outstanding slider.
Against his slider, they had a .036 well-hit average (fourth best in baseball)
and routinely beat the ball into the ground (61%) for an easy conversion to an
out. <o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="apple-style-span"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="apple-style-span"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Meanwhile, his peripheral stat line against right-handed
opponents paints the picture of a much more ordinary and pedestrian hurler:<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="apple-style-span"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td colspan="6" style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 6.65in;" valign="top" width="638">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Duensing vs Right-Handed Hitters
(2009-11)<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.1pt;" valign="top" width="108">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 80.5pt;" valign="top" width="107">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">PAs <o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 79.35pt;" valign="top" width="106">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">K%<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.1pt;" valign="top" width="108">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">BB%<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.45pt;" valign="top" width="109">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">GB%<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 75.3pt;" valign="top" width="100">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Swg. Str%<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.1pt;" valign="top" width="108">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2009<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 80.5pt;" valign="top" width="107">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">269<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 79.35pt;" valign="top" width="106">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">12.6%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.1pt;" valign="top" width="108">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">9.3%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.45pt;" valign="top" width="109">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">44%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 75.3pt;" valign="top" width="100">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">17%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.1pt;" valign="top" width="108">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2010<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 80.5pt;" valign="top" width="107">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">382<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 79.35pt;" valign="top" width="106">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">11.5%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.1pt;" valign="top" width="108">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">7.3%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.45pt;" valign="top" width="109">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">52%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 75.3pt;" valign="top" width="100">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">14%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.1pt;" valign="top" width="108">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2011<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 80.5pt;" valign="top" width="107">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">524<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 79.35pt;" valign="top" width="106">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">14.7%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.1pt;" valign="top" width="108">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">8.8%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 81.45pt;" valign="top" width="109">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">41%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 75.3pt;" valign="top" width="100">
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">18%<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="apple-style-span"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">(via Fangraphs & Inside Edge)<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="apple-style-span"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="apple-style-span"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Of course, we know the results in 2011 were not simply “pedestrian”,
they were an abomination. Thanks to righties teeing off on him, their .558
slugging percentage and their .329 batting average against him paced baseball. <o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="apple-style-span"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="apple-style-span"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Part of the reason for this barrage was due to his inability
to keep the ball down against righties – <a href="http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2011/08/brian-duensing-needs-to-get-right.html">which
I pointed out back in August</a>. Specifically, Duensing failed to his two main
pitches to righties down: his fastball and his changeup. His fastball, on
average, finished a little over an inch higher in the zone than it did in 2010.
His change, his favored secondary offering to righties, finished nearly two
inches higher on average in 2011 over the previous season. Because of this,
Duensing experienced a significant spike in the amount of square contact being
made. His line drive rate allowed to right-handers rose from 15.7% in 2010 to
22.2% last year. <o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="apple-style-span"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="apple-style-span"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">To be honest, I have had troubles pinpointing what in his
delivery has caused this much fluctuation. Video wises, it is hard to pick up
on any major changes. Judging from pitch f/x data, however, it would appear
that he is dropping his arm angle slightly for his changeup. His average
release point on his changeup to righties in 2010 was several inches higher and
several inches closer towards first base. This may be an indication that he was
been lowering his arm slot when releasing his change thus having it remain up
in the zone rather than staying on top of it. <o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="apple-style-span"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="apple-style-span"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Interestingly enough, the video scouts at Inside Edge did not
feel that right-handers actually smashed the ball around off of him as much as
his the stats from the previous two paragraphs would indicate. According to
them, they concluded that righties had a .236 well-hit average off of him. It
was well above the league’s average but 17 other starters saw harder contact
including Tampa’s David Price and Arizona’s Ian Kennedy. <o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="apple-style-span"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="apple-style-span"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So here’s what we know: Duensing’s stuff is stupid good against
lefties. If he is limited to a higher portion of left-handed match-ups, as
would be the case if he had the luxury of being inserted into those prime situations
in a given ball game, he will likely succeed and put up very good numbers. We
also know now that he struggles mightily against right-handed opponents. Given
a higher pool of those opponents to face in 2011, overexposed Duensing was
battered continuously. Then again, he demonstrated in 2010 that when he was
able to locate his pitches properly, he was able to keep righties from
launching an extra base hit assault (52% groundball rate is not too shabby). <o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="apple-style-span"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="apple-style-span"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I tried to make it abundantly clear <a href="http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2011/02/what-role-should-duensing-have-in-11.html">last
year heading into spring camp</a> that his arsenal is best suited for relief.
Yes, he had some impressive outings in 2010 but that did not detract from the
fact that he would be substantially more effective among the relievers. Without
any outside additions or prospects ready to move him from the rotation, the
Twins decided to let their good fortune ride. His results in 2011 should more
or less solidify this fact in concrete: Duensing is made for the bullpen. </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37892113.post-19360237798613263832011-11-21T00:49:00.002-06:002011-11-21T20:36:46.351-06:00An introduction to Ryan Doumit's offense<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">The Twins
front office worked quickly on the free agent market this winter, first signing
<a href="http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2011/11/twins-sign-jamey-carroll-it-aint-that.html">Jamey
Carroll to a two-year deal</a> and now on the verge of inking <a href="http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Reports_Twins_agree_to_oneyear_deal_with_catcher_Ryan_Doumit111811">Ryan
Doumit to a one-year contract</a> (pending a physical on Monday). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="apple-style-span"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: #fbfefa; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">With the Twins looking to use the 30-year-old
Doumit in a variety of ways (catching, first base, right field and DH), it is
clear that they envision him to be an offense-first contributor. Doumit has had
some ups and downs at the plate, many of these peaks and valleys are likely due
to his</span><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: #fbfefa; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> <a href="http://twinsgeek.blogspot.com/2011/11/doumit-gamble.html">laundry
list of injuries over the course of his career</a>. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="apple-style-span"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: #fbfefa; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="apple-style-span"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: #fbfefa; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">For the most part, the switch-hitter has
thrived at the left-side of the plate (798 OPS) but has been somewhat less
effective from the right (718) during his seven years at the major league level.
As a lefty, Doumit is a significant pull hitter, yanking 58.2% of all balls in
play to the right side of the field:<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #333333;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="apple-style-span"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: #fbfefa; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNcgZl_Upzf1q60kikl8I69P-TAiFw4wJYbfx3rSgm1VAVLqjHcUM4JKsAkoVzNmfx1O6QP0maCjRJmn_leEuYuO_4qpVnNB_A0oWDmmQ4hnyoko4OwtIVSA1P4LP2RH7EnaTFlg/s1600/Doumit_LeftSide.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNcgZl_Upzf1q60kikl8I69P-TAiFw4wJYbfx3rSgm1VAVLqjHcUM4JKsAkoVzNmfx1O6QP0maCjRJmn_leEuYuO_4qpVnNB_A0oWDmmQ4hnyoko4OwtIVSA1P4LP2RH7EnaTFlg/s1600/Doumit_LeftSide.jpg" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="apple-style-span"><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: #fbfefa; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"></span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Because he
hits a high percentage of line drives this direction (over 20% of his career),
Doumit has posted decent numbers. His left-side power numbers have been bolstered
from playing at PNC Park – a field which is 320 feet to the right field corner
despite a 21-foot tall wall – and he has hit 41 of his 67 career home runs in
Pittsburgh. This approach may actually transfer well into Target Field. Target
has very similar configurations to PNC, aside from the right field wall being
eight feet further back and the wall being two feet taller, left-handed hitters
have found the space between the foul pole and the stadium’s overhang seats to
be very inviting. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Meanwhile, from
the right side, Doumit is also a pull hitter: <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0f-DYU3K3APe0Ht_NwZygfQGRDhbn7heIaSNql2CIxAcAt2D0D739fVJPtgbsmcc4HwbLpVkz-QqZnOnpzmLG5Fn6auQ_dbokaGSyBs3jYXwnnzk83__HeuVLOSlveTpZNj_zOA/s1600/Doumit_RightSide.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0f-DYU3K3APe0Ht_NwZygfQGRDhbn7heIaSNql2CIxAcAt2D0D739fVJPtgbsmcc4HwbLpVkz-QqZnOnpzmLG5Fn6auQ_dbokaGSyBs3jYXwnnzk83__HeuVLOSlveTpZNj_zOA/s1600/Doumit_RightSide.jpg" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"></span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">The
difference, however, is that from the right side, Doumit is much more prone to
knocking the ball straight into the ground, bouncing out to third and short
quite often (58% for his career). He does have a high tendency of line drives
this direction as well but does not hit many fly balls. This means you won’t
see a ton of home runs coming from what is his natural side (1 every 50 PAs on
the right side versus 1 every 28 from the left). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">The
thick-built Doumit isn’t necessarily a prototypical “power hitter”. The most
home runs he has hit in a season was 18 in 2005 split between AAA Indianapolis
(12) and Pittsburgh (6). Yes, injuries have likely curbed some of his power one
aspect of his swing stands out to me as a potential power restrictor.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Unlike
the vast majority of major league hitters, Doumit does not pivot on his back
foot – from either side of the plate. Whereas the rest of the offensive population
tends to twist their back foot (a reverse pivot), Doumit keeps his foot planted
and his heel to the ground. Here is an example from the left-side of the plate:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidJEiNpunFHEtqVjPBP638MLoJPTmp0d_6Ajb_6mn_FuuWIH6C-AuxvXMRBL2CKh9S8tJ-CEB1P9nfjmbqMGOr_pI1BPwWIyc-8q71uBnKWK36vAnXihQHg7gOyWqSGy_v6XxhuQ/s1600/Doumit_LH_sideview.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidJEiNpunFHEtqVjPBP638MLoJPTmp0d_6Ajb_6mn_FuuWIH6C-AuxvXMRBL2CKh9S8tJ-CEB1P9nfjmbqMGOr_pI1BPwWIyc-8q71uBnKWK36vAnXihQHg7gOyWqSGy_v6XxhuQ/s1600/Doumit_LH_sideview.gif" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Compare
that to Jason Kubel’s swing:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9NlZx8yW83E1HR3MiOUk4VRvPwowgBU7aBSiDUGU3pbNfkzRO7QcP24ZnhhXlCmvBTCGmOVNAEdJjGg5M1mjE1zvsSh3oSb2AYJWKYzbMLVVOltiaNXbwAxMr8hAQlP3sUHJUTw/s1600/Kubel_LH_sideview.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9NlZx8yW83E1HR3MiOUk4VRvPwowgBU7aBSiDUGU3pbNfkzRO7QcP24ZnhhXlCmvBTCGmOVNAEdJjGg5M1mjE1zvsSh3oSb2AYJWKYzbMLVVOltiaNXbwAxMr8hAQlP3sUHJUTw/s1600/Kubel_LH_sideview.gif" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Here
is Doumit’s swing from the right-side of the plate:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDZBO5Q4xnQEH4bUym9TIC7Yn5WKgMe9G2RY6HrSrfB8h6tminTmgq8Qe69YrPzU-Lo0nYAa4VYi1Zxu51O1A1BBgeX2W64KI8zbPiuGGWXYtyfzdlFZxtE5Gxq6JDEuiyScmRNQ/s1600/Doumit_RH_sideview.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDZBO5Q4xnQEH4bUym9TIC7Yn5WKgMe9G2RY6HrSrfB8h6tminTmgq8Qe69YrPzU-Lo0nYAa4VYi1Zxu51O1A1BBgeX2W64KI8zbPiuGGWXYtyfzdlFZxtE5Gxq6JDEuiyScmRNQ/s1600/Doumit_RH_sideview.gif" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Now
compare that to Michael Cuddyer’s swing:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbcYuH_NYIWoKSNcug_tHn97yOTm-OSAHUFBWOB-6q34KY-82JTqpE11LwYYWbRAmSq_viSqKelxjo5nEETW2pt_AaALeMY4cNHPb6oqEtur3EPMT6KfGEcmkpwMxhPalTikFGEw/s1600/Cuddy_RH_sideview.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbcYuH_NYIWoKSNcug_tHn97yOTm-OSAHUFBWOB-6q34KY-82JTqpE11LwYYWbRAmSq_viSqKelxjo5nEETW2pt_AaALeMY4cNHPb6oqEtur3EPMT6KfGEcmkpwMxhPalTikFGEw/s1600/Cuddy_RH_sideview.gif" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">While
Doumit still has plenty of positive weight transfer and unloads his hips extremely
well, not pivoting off of his back <strike>leg</strike> foot means that his upper body is doing more
of the heavy lifting. Strong individuals have had some success swinging like
this. Early in his career, White Sox right fielder Carlos Quinten shared this
trait, performing extremely well in 2008, but has since changed his mechanics in
recent years. So, although he’s got plenty of strength, Doumit is likely not
generating the maximum amount of power he could if he swung more conventionally.
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">So
what does the future hold for Doumit in Minnesota?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">This
past season in Pittsburgh, he posted what was perhaps his best season in
limited time hitting a healthy .303/.353/.477 in 236 plate appearances. Going
forward, I anticipate he will experience some drainage in his batting average
and his on-base percentage next year. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">On
his way to the best season of his career in 2011, Doumit managed to hold a .331
batting average on balls in play – well above his .304 career average. Part of
the explanation behind that was because a substantial amount of ground balls
became hits (35.2% vs. 24.0% league average) which for a player with slower foot
speed like Doumit, I would wager that a higher percentage of those bouncers are
converted into outs in 2012.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">On
the other hand, even though his walk rate dropped, Doumit made some strides in
his plate discipline. He became increasingly
patient at the dish. After swinging at 45.8 percent of pitches in 2010, he
offered at just 42.4 percent this season, also reducing the rate in which he
chased pitches outside of the strike zone (27% down from 32%). This helped trim
down his strikeout rate from 19 percent to 15 percent. If he can continue this
kind of restraint in 2012, he’ll likely see that walk rate rise again which may
help his on-base percentage stay afloat despite the projected decline in his
BABIP. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">With
a one-year deal, there is little risk involved for the organization. Signing
Doumit provides the Twins roster with a player who can – at the very least –
stand at a handful of positions and provide above-average production at the
plate. <o:p></o:p></span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37892113.post-15206716581177876112011-11-18T00:41:00.000-06:002011-11-18T00:41:07.329-06:00What is the plan for the rotation?<br />
<div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Baseball’s GMs have invaded Milwaukee and the game’s roster-creators are undoubtedly using the time to discuss impactful deals presumably in-between stops at the Miller Brewery tour and the Harley Davidson factory.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">On Wednesday Twins’ general manager Terry Ryan checked in from Wisconsin with Tom Pelissero and Phil Mackey for 1500ESPN’s Talkin’ Twins feature and illuminated the locals on his thoughts towards his 2012 roster construction. When asked about the plans for the starting rotation and whether it would be different from the previous season, <a href="http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/twins" style="color: #0b478d; text-decoration: none;">Ryan said</a>:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<blockquote style="background-color: white; color: #333333; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 12px; padding-left: 48px; padding-right: 48px; padding-top: 0px;">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px; text-align: center;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">“Hopefully not too different, except for those guys will be out there for 30 starts.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</blockquote>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Cue the <a href="http://sadtrombone.com/" style="color: #0b478d; text-decoration: none;">sad trombone</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">For most fans, this was likely a concerning statement. After all, the starting rotation was infirmed for a substantial part of the season and what did wind up pitching managed to put up the AL’s third-worst ERA (4.64), allowed the most hits (1,086) and finished with the second-fewest strikeouts (617). I’m certain that there is a groundswell of fans that would prefer the slate-wiped clean from the current crop and replaced with five power-arm pitchers who would rather die than allow contact.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Nevertheless, Ryan continued his interview by listing Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn and Francisco Liriano – all of whom missed significant time in 2011 – as the pitchers the organization is counting on and then added that they would like Carl Pavano to match last year’s output.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">That’s not necessarily a bad thing either.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A full season of Baker and Liriano at full tilt would be an appetizing tandem. Last year, Baker was having an All-Star caliber season, going 7-5 with a 3.01 ERA and a 104/30 K/BB ratio in 17 starts before his elbow started barking. Meanwhile Liriano is simply one season removed from his 14-10, 3.62 ERA and 201/58 K/BB in 191.2 innings that even earned him Cy Young consideration. If that pairing can revive whatever mojo they were working with in 2011 and 2010 for the entire 162-game stretch, there is reason for optimism right there.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Although he absorbs a considerable amount of flak (and given some horrendous results the past two seasons, it’s not entirely unmerited) Blackburn, when healthy, has demonstrated that he is an extremely capable back-of-the-rotation innings-eater. The past two seasons he has been without his slider thanks to the bone chips in his elbow and was constantly Party Rocked by right-handed opponents. The eternal optimist that is the Twins front office is of the mindset that, now that he’s had his second clean-up, this time it will be better.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Finally, Pavano has managed to buoy the rotation as it was steadily sinking into the turf. He’s 222 innings gave the bullpen some much needed relief. Yes, he too was battered around but a substantial portion of his hits came because of an uptick in the grounders that became hits. In 2010, 22.5% of his grounders were hits. This past season 27.0% of his grounders were hits, well above the 23.5% league average rate. That number spiked mostly because of plays like <a href="http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1321598297_theeight_1313385861_Nishioka_Hafner3.gif" style="color: #0b478d; text-decoration: none;">this</a> and <a href="http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=17942519&c_id=mlb" style="color: #0b478d; text-decoration: none;">this</a>behind him. Perhaps with the addition of Jamey Carroll, Pavano will see more of those grounders converted to outs.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So the Twins are content with marching into 2012 with a rotation of Baker, Pavano, Liriano and Blackburn and…and...wait a second…Baker, Pavano, Liriano and Blackburn. One, two, three, four. Hmm, unless the Twins plan on unveiling the first four-man rotation used since Kansa City in 1995, there appears to be a significant vacancy.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">While it is possible they decide to address that opening from within, there is preliminary indication that Ryan and the Twins are looking outside the organization to fill that position as well.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Not long ago, a <a href="http://twitter.com/#!/OverTheBaggy/status/134012484955807744" style="color: #0b478d; text-decoration: none;">Cincinnati radio station reported</a> that the Twins were one of several teams to check in on Reds right-hander Johnny Cueto. The 25-year-old represents a solid immediate and long-term addition to the rotation. Locked into a very team-friendly contract which is scheduled to pay out $5.4 M in ’12, $7.4M in ’13 and $10M in ’14 including a club option for 2015 ($10M), Cueto has shown promise towards being a front-end type pitcher. Yes, his strike out rate dropped for the fourth straight season but the regression was offset by a significant jump in his ground ball rate (rising from 41.7% to 53.7%). The Reds altered Cueto’s <a href="http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/07/30/style-points-for-reds-cueto/" style="color: #0b478d; text-decoration: none;">landing point this season to avoid tipping his pitches</a> and he became less slider-reliant. This helped shave over a run off of his ERA for the year.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Likewise, while it seems improbable, <a href="http://twitter.com/#!/JimBowdenESPNxm/status/136886900123377664" style="color: #0b478d; text-decoration: none;">ESPN’s Jim Bowden</a> tweeted that the Twins were one of ten teams confirmed by club sources who were interested in free agent Mark Buehrle. Unlike Cueto, Buehrle fits within the Pavano mold in which he uses guile to get his opponents out and should do so at a price northwards of $10M per season next season. This would seemingly price him out of the Twins’ plans (unless they happen to move a contract like Pavano’s or reconcile the bullpen issues with minimal spending). If partnered with the original four, Buehrle would give the rotation two hurlers who could almost guarantee 200 innings each.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The team has also been connected with two Japanese pitchers as of late, right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma, and <a href="http://twitter.com/#!/OverTheBaggy/status/134027395626835968" style="color: #0b478d; text-decoration: none;">now left-handed Tsuyoshi Wada</a>. The Twins were linked to Iwakuma last year when they submit a bid for the rights to negotiate with him but speculation now is that since he is an outright free agent, they will at least discuss the idea of signing him. Like Iwakuma, <a href="http://bis.npb.or.jp/eng/players/11815117.html" style="color: #0b478d; text-decoration: none;">Wada</a> is also a free agent and is sort of a Buehrle-lite. Turning 31 in 2012, Wada uses a <a href="http://www.npbtracker.com/data/player.php?p_id=198" style="color: #0b478d; text-decoration: none;">plethora of pitches and speeds</a> (none on the fast side) to retire hitters. He throws strikes, can work deep into ballgames (often throwing over 120 pitches) and keeps the ball inside the park. However, the issue with projecting Japanese pitchers, aside from the jump in competition, is that their pitchers throw once a week while MLB pitchers throw every five days.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So while Ryan may downplay the potential of adding any additional rotation arms, there are plenty of signs that the Twins are active in completing their five-man from outside the club. More options will likely surface in the next few weeks leading up to baseball’s winter meetings in Dallas, which you can read about in the <a href="http://www.twinscentric.com/" style="color: #0b478d; text-decoration: none;">TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook</a>. For now, just be thankful Bruce Chen’s name has not been connected to this club...yet.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #333333; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 15px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">(Closed-circuit to Terry Ryan: Ignore that last sentence.) </span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-37892113.post-14600162055206728182011-11-17T00:25:00.004-06:002011-11-17T14:54:08.694-06:00OtB Twins Notes: Doumit & Willingham, Punxsutawney Phil, Street and Mark B<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">According to <a href="http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/133937198.html">Joe Christensen
at the Star Tribune,</a> the Twins have contacted the agent of <b>Ryan Doumit</b> and <b>Josh Willingham</b> expressing interest in the free agent catcher and
outfielder.</span></div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">With a backup
catching need and a potential outfield vacancy needing attention if (ahem,
when) Michael Cuddyer leaves, Doumit and Willingham are two sensible options to
fill those positions. </span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Doumit, who
will turn 31 in April, recently turned down the <a href="http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/dodgers/2011/11/ryan-doumit-turns-down-dodgers-one-year-3-million-offer.html">Los
Angeles Dodgers’ one-year, $3 million offer</a>. He is coming off an
injury-filled yet somewhat successful season offensively in his limited reps: In
just over 200 plate appearances, the switch-hitting Doumit batted
.303/.353/.477 with 8 home runs. Perhaps more impressively, he raked a healthy
.315/.393/.519 against left-handed pitchers, potentially giving the Twins a
DH/C option when the team squares off against tougher southpaw’ed foes.<br /> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">The downside
is, aside from the regular injuries, is that his catching is borderline
atrocious. According to a study conducted by <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15093">Baseball
Prospectus’s Mike Fast</a>, Doumit was found to be the worst receiving catcher
in the game, costing his team roughly 66 runs since 2007 (or 26 per 120 games
behind the plate). For a team like the Twins whose rotation works the corners
and relies on expanding the zone, having a catcher behind the plate who shrinks
it could be detrimental. Furthermore, fans have noted that his arm strength is
slightly above average according to <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=2&season=2011&month=0&season1=2007&ind=0&team=0&players=0">Fangraphs’s
Fans Scouting Report</a>, scoring it a 57 since 2007 while his accuracy was
rated a 34 (out of 100). The Pirates recognized this and often tried to move
him to first or right field in order to keep his potent bat in the lineup. Simply
put, if signed, his catching duties probably should be limited.</span> </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">In terms of
Willingham, my thoughts on him have waned. His coming off a well-time high
production year at the age of 32 and is interested in a multi-year deal
(reportedly a three-year <a href="http://twitter.com/#!/joestiglich/status/131147570037784577">deal
according to his agent Matt Sosnick</a>). In 2011, he batted a decent
.246/.332/.477 with 29 home runs and 98 runs batted in. While it was a down
year for his average and on-base percentage, impressively Willingham slugged
.523 at his home ballpark in Oakland while the rest of baseball’s right-handers
only managed to slug .363. What was his secret? Willingham is a dead-pull
hitter with his power, yanking almost every home run towards the foul pole in
left (24 of his 29 were dead-red left field). In the cavernous Oakland stadium,
pulling the ball was the only way to hit for power regularly.<br /> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Much like
Oakland, <a href="http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2011/10/offensive-success-is-possible-at-target.html">Target
Field plays in a similar fashion</a>. The gaps are distant, the wind pattern
knock fly balls down in center and forget about trying to go opposite field if
you are a right-handed hitter. By most player accounts, pulling the ball is the
only way you will hit anything out. Unfortunately, players like Delmon Young
said he had to change his style of hitting which affected his overall play.
Unlike Young, Willingham is a natural pull hitter and would not need to alter
his style to accommodate for the home park.<br /> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Defensively, by
most advance metrics Willingham has been subpar in the outfield. The fans have
found that he has below average speed (41) and a below average arm (47). Because
of this he has been used as a left fielder, only playing the occasional innings
in right. If the Twins add him and keep Denard Span and Ben Revere, they will
have two rangy outfielders (much like before) but now two players whose arms
are substandard for their positions (Are we sure Ben Revere isn’t left handed?
Has anyone confirmed that yet?).<br /> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Judging from
that assessment, he is almost golden in Minnesota, right? Sure, but on the
other hand, he’s entering his mid-30s and has had several knee issues. That
could wind up in problems in Year 2 or 3 of his contract and block younger
superior defensive talents like Joe Benson.</span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Nevertheless,
because of the scarcity of decent right-handed hitting outfielders it is not
surprising that <a href="http://twitter.com/#%21/ajcbraves/status/132913589949440001">ten teams
are currently interested in him</a> yet due to <b>Michael Cuddyer </b>on the market at the same time, Willingham should
land a marginally smaller contract despite outperforming him in 2011. My guess
is that, unless a team greatly overbids for his services, Willingham will not
sign a deal until after Cuddyer makes his decision, setting the bar for the
next best outfielder on the market.</span> </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i><b style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Update:</b><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">1500ESPN and 5 Eyewitness News' <a href="http://twitter.com/#!/DarrenWolfson/status/137246438093635584">Darren Wolfson</a> checked in with the agent of the two players (they both share Matt Sosnick of SosnickCobbe). According to the agent the Twins, right now, are "not front-runners for either player."</span> </i></blockquote>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Interestingly
enough, Doumit’s and Willingham’s agent, <a href="http://twitter.com/#!/SosnickCobbe/status/136913307620745216">Matt
Sosnick of SosnickCobbe</a>, announced that the Twins have re-signed
left-handed reliever <b>Phil Dumatrait</b>.</span></div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">You know when
you step in dirty bubble gum and you pry it loose from your shoe and toss it
away only to step in it again a few moments later?<br /> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Dumatrait
earned his way on to the Twins when <b>Jose </b></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><b>Mijares</b> proved ineffective and
injured. While the 30-year-old’s numbers look superficially good (3.92 ERA) the
peripherals were gut-wrenching as he had a 29-to-25 strikeouts-to-walk ratio
while allowing 45 hits in 41.1 innings of work. He was particularly awful
against righties (.985 OPS, 15/18 K/BB), he managed to fend off lefties (.627
OPS, 14/7 K/BB) per his job description.</span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">What makes
him appealing to the organization is that Ron Gardenhire loves having his
left-handed pitchers “spin it” (toss sliders). In 2010 Randy Flores was
effectively fired from the team as he refused to “spin it”. For his part,
Dumatrait, spins it. Last year he threw sliders 40% of the time to left-handed opponents.<br />
</span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Since the
Twins cut him loose earlier in the offseason, this is very likely a minor
league deal and having him waiting in the wings of the organization is a fine
emergency plan for the bullpen.</span></blockquote>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><a href="http://twitter.com/#!/TroyRenck/status/136933208267816960">Denver Post’s
Troy Renck</a> says that the Rockies are shopping closer <b>Huston Street</b> and that the Twins might be a likely fit.</span></div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">First off, it’s
likely just speculation. The Twins have an obvious vacancy so, naturally, any available
closer they may call to inquire upon. There’s no confirmation that the Twins
have even reached out yet. However, if they do, Street would be a very good fit
for the team.</span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">The
28-year-old Street has one year left on his contract for $7 million with an
option year in 2013 for $9 million (or a $500,000 buyout). Street, while
extremely talents with good results over his career, has battled injuries on
the reg including a right ulnar nerve in 2007, biceps tendinitis in 2009 ,
shoulder inflammation in 2010 and a groin injury at the end of last year.<br /> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Again, when
he’s been able to get on the mound, he’s been wildly successful. Dating back to
2007, Street has the fourth-highest swinging strikes rate among relievers at
13.9% - tied with the now overpaid Jonathan Papelbon. Beyond that, he throws
strikes consistently, walking only 111 people in 436.1 career innings. Essentially,
he’s Matt Capps with the ability to strike fools out. For the Rockies, he’s
converted 88.2% of his save chances, giving them piece of mind at the backend
of the bullpen.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"></span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">The Rockies
are known to have interest in <b>Carl
Pavano</b>, who stands to make $8 million in 2012. Flipping Street for him
makes sense. Pavano’s contributions to the Twins rotation last year, while
seemingly unspectacular, his 222 innings were invaluable consider the shape of
the bullpen and the crumbling rotation. In the past three seasons, only 11
other starters threw more innings than he did – finding that kind of
consistency is difficult.</span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Replacing Pavano
would be difficult but may be this next item could have something to do with
that…</span></blockquote>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Former GM and
current ESPN talker <a href="http://twitter.com/#!/JimBowdenESPNxm/status/136886900123377664">Jim
Bowden</a> reports that the Twins are one of 10 teams who have been confirmed from
club sources as “playing on” White Sox pitcher <b>Mark Buehrle</b>.</span></div>
<blockquote>
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Here’s what I
said about Buehrle in the <a href="http://twinscentric.com/">TwinsCentric
Offseason GM Handbook</a>:</span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"></span></blockquote>
<blockquote>
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">“Since</span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"> 2000, only
two other pitchers have thrown more innings and just six have had a higher WAR
than Mark Buerhle. By most accounts, the White Sox left-hander has defied the
principles in which SABRists have judged pitching. He doesn’t get hitters to
miss (his 84.7% career contact rate is the sixth-highest since ‟02) nor does he
coax a heck of a lot of ground balls either. He simply changes speeds,
locations and gets opponents to get themselves out – year after year. The Sox
are almost at payroll capacity so the likelihood of re-signing Buerhle, who has
made $14 million per year since 2008, seems non-existent.”</span></blockquote>
<blockquote>
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Yeah, hey, I
can’t figure him out. He doesn’t throw hard. He doesn’t get strikeouts. He
doesn’t get a ton of grounders. He repels statistically-minded people. And yet,
somehow, he manages to avoid surrendering 500 home runs a year while playing at
a softball field. He keeps roughly 72% of his base-runners from scoring. Year-after-year.
If you look at his <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/heatmap.aspx?playerid=225&position=P&pitch=FA&size=&inty=&pal=">heat
maps</a>, he’ll work the entire zone with various breaking pitches with different
speeds and tie opponents up into little knots.<br /> </span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif;">Because of
the level of interest in the Type B Buehrle, it’s likely going to force the
Twins out of consideration. </span></blockquote>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2