Can a focused Burroughs be useful to the Twins?

On Monday, the Star Tribune’s Patrick Reusse recounted the tale of Sean Burroughs, a recent Twins minor league signing this winter, whose life was derailed by drinking and drugs in his twenties.  

In his first four seasons of professional ball in the Padres organization, Burroughs hit a remarkable .324/418/.453 in 1,653 plate appearances. Baseball America anointed him the seventh best prospect in 2000 then the sixth best in 2001 and finally the fourth best in 2002. He was the proverbial “can’t miss” prospect.

Unfortunately, he missed.

From 2003 to 2005, Burroughs hit .283/.343/.366 with the Padres. While in a different era his batting average may have been lauded, in the modern era that puts emphasis on reaching base AND hitting for power, Burroughs’ stock tumbled in San Diego.

People began to wonder where the power - the one that baseball minds predicted he would eventually develop - was.

Midway through 2005, the Friars traded for Joe Randa, who was having a solid season in Cincinnati at an extremely hitter-friendly ballpark. This was the beginning of the end for Burroughs in San Diego. Never mind that upon reaching the west coast and Petco Park Randa’s numbers tumbled to .256/.303/.395 – hardly an improvement over what Burroughs was providing them – but Burroughs’s off-field shenanigans likely accelerated his exit.

According to an article by MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch, Burroughs’ attention turned to partying that season:

“It began sometime in 2005, his fourth season with the Padres, Burroughs recalled, when he became more concerned with postgame plans than actually succeeding under the lights at PETCO Park. Burroughs struggled to pin down the reason he took the path he did, though one wrong turn was all it took to get stuck.

‘I was looking to just have fun,’ Burroughs said. ‘Have a good game and celebrate. Have a bad game and numb out. Once you start, you can't stop.’

Burroughs did a pretty good job hiding the extracurricular activities from his teammates, though the sudden dip in results suggested something was not right for a guy who was supposed to be a star.”

The Padres would trade Burroughs to Tampa in exchange for another failed prospect in Dewan Brazelton but Burroughs would flounder in Florida as well. In 25 games for the Devil Rays, he hit .190/.320/.238 and earned a release in August. This begat a trail run with the Mariners the following season that lasted until June. After that, Burroughs disconnected from the world in Las Vegas, accumulating war stories which he claims would make Josh Hamilton blush.

The 30-year-old Burroughs cleaned himself up and earned a spot into the Diamondbacks system. While in AAA Reno last year, he produced well in 110 plate appearances, hitting .412/.450/.618. Impressed, Arizona buoyed him between the big club and their top affiliate, chiefly using him as a pinch hitter off the bench (58 of his 115 plate appearances can off the bench). In that limited time at the big league level, Baseball America’s one-time number four overall prospect hit .273/.289/.336 with five extra base hits.

While he’s a fantastic feel-good story worth of a Disney biopic, what are the odds we’ll see Burroughs at Target Field in 2012?

Based on his track record, it might be fairly decent.

In 2011, Danny Valencia was one of the worst rated defensive third basemen according to Baseball Info Solution’s Plus/Minus rating system (30 in MLB). Meanwhile, Burroughs has been a top defender in the game as recently as 2005. Yes, six years added to his odometer may have slowed him down some, but there are odds that his prowess still exists:

Furthermore, where the right-handed hitting third base incumbent has been thwarted by same-sided nemesis (a career .283 OBP against RHP), Burroughs’s little major league success is predicated on him being able to reach base against righties (.350 career OBP against RHP). If added to the roster, he provides a solid platoon option.  

What’s interesting about Burroughs’s approach at the plate is that the left-hander has an inside-out swing, one that produces numerous opposite field and up-the-middle hits.

As you can see from Inside Edge’s hit chart from last year, Burroughs thrives at taking inside pitches the other way – a method that provides a high average but little power.  Here is a video clip that exemplifies this swing:

This resulted in Burroughs hitting .565 on balls hit to left while hitting just .143 when pulling the ball in 2011.

Although many baseball people thought Burroughs’s power would eventually develop, it is more likely that his approach would never allow for a great deal of home runs – much like a certain Minnesota catcher (with the exception of one season). 

Because of his keen batting eye and ability to get base hits by using left and center fields, Burroughs maintained an average of .317 and an on-base percentage of .400 in the minors.  While playing in the Venezuelan Winter League this winter, Burroughs continued by hitting .316 and posting a .396 on-base percentage in 136 at-bats. It is possible that given the opportunity to hit in more favorable situations against right-handed pitchers, he could potentially put up similar numbers.

If Valencia cannot improve on his defense and his struggle against right-handed pitching persists, don’t be surprised to see Burroughs in Minnesota. At the very least, Burroughs can be a Rochester reminder for the current starter – hopefully pushing him to improve his game. 

Twins add Joel Zumaya to the bullpen mix

The Twins have frequently been accused of not catering to power arms and also not taking risks on their offseason signings. On Sunday, they may have made inroads in both areas by agreeing to a deal, pending a physical, with former Tigers flame-thrower Joel Zumaya.

According to Joe Christensen, the Twins and Zumaya have agreed to terms of a deal worth $800,000, with the potential of adding another $900,000 of incentives based on innings pitched, pending a physical.

Fastest Fastball (2007-2010)
Name	FB%	FBv
Joel Zumaya	81.30%	98.5
Daniel Bard	72.90%	97.7
Matt Lindstrom	73.10%	96.4
Neftali Feliz	78.70%	96.2
Jonathan Broxton	73.30%	96.1
Brian Wilson	67.20%	96.1
Jason Motte	79.40%	95.9

Zumaya, the talented yet often injured pitcher, has drawn some interest this offseason. In early December, the free agent Zumaya was in Houston to throw off the mound in front of teams. Fox Sports’ Jon Morosi tweeted that a scout told him that “almost every team was there” to watch him. Reports from the Texas audition were that the 27-year-old right hander was throwing in the mid-90s, down slightly from his 98.5 mile-per-hour average from 2007 through 2010.

Based on this, several team courted Zumaya as a potential buy-low, reward-high type of arm. Both Boston and San Diego were engaged in talks with him but, as the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo reported, one AL team’s doctors did not believe that Zumaya would be able to pass a physical in order to be signed.  Because the concern, it is easy to see why he would be available for under a million.

As you can glean from the chart above, Zumaya’s fastball is pure diesel fuel. From 2007 to 2010, Zumaya averaged the hardest fastball in the majors. Although an impressive feat, his regular absence from the active roster was a true detriment.

After bursting onto the scene in 2006 as a hot-shot 22-year-old reliever, he supposedly destroyed his elbow in 2006 by playing Guitar Hero too much (a video game that is no longer available either). In 2007, Zumaya missed extended time when he dislocated his finger while warming up in the bullpen and threw just 33.2 innings that season. Those 33.2 innings would be the most he would throw in a single season outside of his rookie year. In November of 2007, he would require AC joint reconstruction in his throwing shoulder (which he injured removing items from his Southern California homes during one of the wildfires) and missed a substantial portion of the 2008 season. The following year he would re-aggravate the shoulder in July of 2009 and wound up on the DL as the pain kept him from being able to lift his arm above his head. Finally, in 2010 most Twins fans were witness to Zumaya’s elbow exploding (a fractured olecranon) on a 99-mile-per-hour pitch to Delmon Young. He would miss the entire 2011 season because of that last injury, which necessitated a subsequent surgical procedure to replace a screw that was inserted into his elbow after the fracture.

Given the laundry list of ailments, it wouldn’t surprise me that during his impending physical that those doctors discover that his elbow is being held together with rubber band and duct tape.

Clearly, there is an injury risk associated with him but when healthy, he’s been a dominate arm in the bullpen. Over his career, he’s thrown 209.1 innings, striking out 23.1% of all batters faced and holding opponents to a .213 average against. However, unlike the majority of his Twin counterparts, Zumaya’s been a bit erratic with his control. His 12.8 % walk rate dating back to 2007 has been one of the league’s higher numbers in that period. Because of the various injuries, you can see how they would affect his command, particularly in 2008 and 2009 when he was recovering from shoulder surgery (44 walks in 54.1 innings). Considering he is recovering from elbow surgery this time around, it is very possible that Zumaya will struggle with his control in 2012.

If things work out favorable for Zumaya in the health department, it is an exciting move that could transform the look of the bullpen, giving Ron Gardenhire a viable late innings right-handed option that was missing from the 2011 squad. At the same time, we must remember that Zumaya is coming off surgery that really has no comparables that would indicate how he will respond. Early indications suggest that the velocity is not quite what it was – as Phil Mackey tweeted, the Twins clocked Zumaya between 92-94 miles per hour – so while it is still good readings, you have to wonder if several ticks off the fastball (one that is thrown up and over the plate) translates into a few more hits. On top of that, there are some team doctors who simply do not think he would pass a physical let alone finish an entire season.

This is certainly an out-of-the-box move for the Twins. We’ve seen a steady history of safe bets - those low-risk/ low-reward acquisitions for the bullpen that have become the organization’s MO. Zumaya, who’s obviously a high risk with his injury history, yet he represents a very high reward. With less a million dollars invested, the Zumaya signing is a good gamble for Minnesota.

Coffey is for (setting up) closers

According to Phil Mackey at 1500ESPN.com, the Twins have been in contact with a potential bullpen arm:

“On Thursday, a baseball source confirmed the Twins have been in talks recently with the agent for right-hander Todd Coffey, who owns a 3.68 ERA with 167 strikeouts and 53 unintentional walks in 205 2/3 innings over the past three seasons with the Nationals and Brewers.”

On paper, backend depth in the bullpen was supposed to be a strength for the 2011 Twins as they had Joe Nathan and Matt Capps in place to handle the 8^th and 9^th innings to shorten games. Of course, in reality, Nathan’s return from Tommy John surgery was predictably premature while Capps would labor through arm issues of his own, leaving the Twins short in late inning arms – particularly from the right side.

Without question, the left-handed Glen Perkins filled the role admirably as the bridge  to the closer, even holding righties to a bullpen-best .259 batting average against. Yet, the Twins struggled to find a suitable candidate to square off on tougher right-handed hitters – guys who could be counted on to defuse a late inning matchup with Paul Konerko or Miguel Cabrera. Over the course of the season, the team trotted out young arms in Alex Burnett (789 OPS vs RHB), Lester Oliveros (706 OPS), and Kyle Waldrop (909 OPS). While the future may prove otherwise, based on their results none of those players seemed ready to handle more critical situations.

As those pitchers get the opportunity to develop in less vital roles - perhaps eventually marrying the skill with their natural talent and ascending in the pecking order - the Twins would require a more stable, more consistent right-handed member of the bullpen.

That’s where the 31-year-old Todd Coffey comes in.

Undervalued for most of his career and, outside of his sprint in from the bullpen, Coffey has toiled away quietly in the National League, producing splits that would make blue states proud. Over his seven seasons, he has keep righties at bay at a much better rate than lefties (.265 RH avg vs .317 LH avg). That mark has improved in the past few seasons as well. Since 2009, he’s kept righties at a .222 average.

While he had been given a more balanced workload in Milwaukee, facing righties and lefties a fairly equal amount, the Nationals played more to his strength by limited his engagements with wrong-handed hitters. This meant shorter outings and more selective appearances. It appears to be an ideal fit for the Twins – someone with late inning experience, who is tough on right-handed opponents and can be lifted easily for one of the plethora of southpaws in the ‘pen (Perkins or Brian Duensing).

But, is Coffey as good as advertised?

Interestingly, Coffey has seen his batted ball rates change significantly in the past three years. Early on in his career, Coffey was a ground-ball inducing machine, getting grounders well over 50% of the time. In 2010, that started to dip. Last year, his ground ball rate was at a career-low 43.6%.

What appears to be responsible for the decline is how he deploys his slider. Prior to 2010, Coffey was mainly a fastball guy who occasionally mixed in his slider but in 2010, Coffey up his usage of the slider to the point where he nearly threw it as much as his fastball (likely in response to the higher amount of match-ups versus same-sided hitters). But it wasn’t just the amount that changed; it was how he threw the slider as well.

In 2009, he would bury the slider underneath the zone, inciting any opponents who opted to chase after the pitch to go out of the strike zone to do so. Because of its trajectory and the fact that it was well underneath the hitting zone when it reached the plate, most hitters were forced to bat it into the ground or flail at it.

  

Meanwhile, starting in 2010, Coffey began to throw his slider more often for a strike. This meant in was in the zone more resulting in more contact and more elevation in said contact.

Along with the decrease in grounders, Coffey also witnessed righties hitting his offerings more solidly. According to Inside Edge’s Well Hit metric, in 2009, righties posted a .168 well-hit average. This past season, that number jumped to .221. In spite of that hard-hit rate, Coffey had a little help from his friends in the Nationals defense this year, helping convert 72.1% of balls in play into outs – also a career best.

As mentioned before, Coffey has a decent fastball/slider combination that when thrown together in the right mix, he may be able to avoid getting squared up regularly. Ideally, if the Twins do sign him to subdue righties, they show him the difference in how his slider is performing and see if he can resurrected the ’09 version at Target Field.    

A team building exercise

In introducing himself to his new fan base out west, Michael Cuddyer fielded questions from readers in the Denver Post. One question regarding the outfielder’s excitement towards switching ballparks – from Target Field to Coors Field – incited the former Twin to sing a familiar tune (emphasis mine):

“I'm a gap-to-gap hitter and I hit with power to the right-center field gap. At the Metrodome, I would drive the ball to the baggy out in right center, and I really peppered the ball. But if you hit the ball to right-center at Target Field, the ball would just die. It's a long way out there.

At Coors Field, I think I can take advantage of my natural swing and I won't have to try and pull the ball. When I'm going well, I'm driving the ball to right-center and I don't have to overcompensate and try to pull the ball. At Coors, I can pull those inside pitches down the line, but I think overall it's a more natural fit for my swing.” 

Stop me if you have heard this one before but since Target Field opened you have been subjected to a barrage of data, some scientific insight and anecdotal observation from players -- of which you can now add Cuddyer’s name to a list that already includes Delmon Young, Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel -- which speaks to the cavernous play of the Twins ballpark and the effects on the players.

The fact is that for the most part the Twins carried the same core group of hitters from the Metrodome days into their new home. Hitters like Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel performed well inside that configuration but have scuffled since moving outdoors. They are not the only ones. In the final two years at the Metrodome, the Twins hit 152 home runs. However, now with two seasons into the Target Field era, they have hit just 98 home runs – the third fewest home runs at home in baseball. Injuries, age and other factors all should be consider yet the biggest change has to be the environment.

If you are a decision-making member of the Twins’ front office, what should you do?

One important aspect of constructing a roster is understanding how the personnel fit into your home ballpark. After all, you play 81 games a year at your home field, it’s best to find a lineup that plays best to that environment.

For instance, at Fenway Park in Boston, the left field Green Monster is whisper away from the infield dirt at 310 to 315 feet. Therefore, it would behoove the Red Sox to skimp on the left-handed starters – which they have, keeping Jon Lester as the only lefty in the rotation consistently dating back to 2000. Likewise, it would also benefit the club to fill the lineup with right-handed pull hitters who elevate the ball to left (or someone like left-handed like Adrian Gonzalez who is very adept at going the other way).

That’s one such extreme example but other stadiums have their own advantages. Dodgers Stadium favors power hitters to center field and it is no surprise Dodgers’ center fielder Matt Kemp paced baseball with 21 center field home runs (the next closest was 13 by Ryan Howard). Seattle, meanwhile, has struggled to find right-handed power considering Safeco Field is a challenge for righties -- an 82 Park Factor for righties, one of the lowest marks in the league.  

Circling back to the Twins, it has become evident over the course of two seasons that Target Field is extremely pitcher-friendly (to those pitchers who keep hitters in the big part of the park anyways). This is not a bad thing. There is no need to adjust the walls, just the mindset when targeting hitters.

No, the answer is not moving the walls in; the answer is in player selection.

This offseason, the Twins were faced with the need to fill two key spots in the lineup with impending free agents in Kubel and Cuddyer. Both were hitters that thrived as gap-to-gap hitters. Unfortunately this trait is punished somewhat at Target Field. To compensate, both hitters have admitted to changing their approach in the past two seasons to accommodate the difference in play. So, the Twins have replaced those long-time Twins with Ryan Doumit and Josh Willingham, two players who stay closer to the foul line than Kubel or Cuddyer.

Doumit, a switch-hitter, figures to replace Kubel’s at-bats as a designated hitter and part-time outfielder. And, while he hits from both sides of the plate, he will see the majority of his plate appearances from the left side. Production-wise, they both excelled when pulling the ball. Kubel has held a .437 weighted On Base Average with 174 weighted Runs Created. Doumit has been slightly better with a .446 wOBA and a 177 wRC+. The difference is that whereas Kubel pulled the ball 43% of the time in his career, Doumit yanked the pitch 53% of the time. Given his higher tendency to pull the ball and playing in Target Field that plays favorable down the right field line for left-handed hitters, if he can remain healthy, Doumit could be the superior power option.

Meanwhile, I had shown recently how Josh Willingham is the antithesis of Michael Cuddyer when it comes to hitting.  Transformed into a pull-happy right-hander thanks to the spacious O.co Stadium in Oakland, Willingham displayed plenty of power directed towards the left field bleachers. Over his career, Cuddyer has pulled the ball 44% of the time while compiling a .435 wOBA and 171 wRC+. Willingham, on the other hand, has pulled the ball 49% of the time to produce a .520 wOBA and a 226 wRC+. So, unlike Cuddyer who seems to have become somewhat uncomfortable regarding his old environs and needing to change his approach, Willingham fits the mold just right.

Perhaps the Twins organization made intentional efforts to identify hitters like Doumit and Willingham whose skill sets include being pull hitters. Perhaps it was serendipitous that the pair fell to the Twins. Either way, from an on-field, team-building standpoint, this was the right direction to go.  

The truth is, being pull happy can weigh down one’s batting average and on-base percentage (as it did for Willingham last year) but it can certainly lead to more power – an area that the Twins have been lacking since the Metrodome days. This can be viewed as the great power experiment for the organization – a litmus test to see how this translates from theory to reality.  If Doumit and Willingham prove to be a success, it will be a blueprint for future player acquisitions. 

Liriano makes a start in Dominican League

It is hard to pinpoint what exactly it was about Liriano’s 2011 season that went so haywire.

Was it that he was under-conditioned, pitching through an injury, struggling with his mechanics, lost his confidence, lost his mind, lost his dog, all of the above, none of the above?

Regardless of why, there are two critical factors that go hand-in-hand which Liriano needs to improve on from his poor 2011 campaign:

(1) Command of his fastball and (2) Getting ahead of hitters.

In 2011, Liriano demonstrated some of the worst command of the heater than almost every starter. Of all qualified pitchers (those who had thrown a minimum of 1,000 fastballs), Liriano’s 53% strike rate was the lowest. What’s more is that when he started his opponents off with the fastball -- which he did a little over half of all match-ups -- he managed to throw it for strike just 44% of the time, also the lowest in baseball. Meanwhile, in 2010, the left-hander was much closer to the league average of 64% by throwing his fastball for a strike 63% of the time (61% on the first pitch).

Intertwined with the command of his fastball is his ability to get ahead of hitters. Two seasons ago, Liriano threw strike one 61% of the time, putting his opponents at a quick disadvantage perhaps enticing them to swing at more out-of-zone offerings (34% out-of-swing rate in 2010, highest of his career) and more swings in general (a 46.5% swing rate). In 2010, however, Liriano wandered aimlessly. In just 49% of his match-ups was he able to achieve strike one – the worst rate in baseball. And it wasn’t just the first pitch last year, either. In 79% of his at-bats he was able to get a strike in one of the first two pitches (the worst mark in baseball and well below the 85% league average).

If Liriano makes significant strides in these two areas in 2012, considering his potent slider and improving change, there’s no reason not to think that he can’t rebound to his 2010 self.

Which brings us to his outing on Wednesday night.

Shortly before Christmas, GM Terry Ryan said that Liriano was not going to throw in the winter leagues but rather he would pitch at the Twins’ Dominican Academy and build his arm strength there. This was largely deflating to those who had witnessed how poorly he came into spring camp a year ago after skipping winter ball. However, midday yesterday the Liga de Beisbol website announced that Liriano would be starting for the Leones del Escogido.

Now, considering it was his first outing against live hitters since September 24, the proper amount of slack needs to be cut. Keep in mind there is plenty of time until April 1. Still, you have to watch for signs of improvement, especially in the aforementioned areas of (1) and (2). Against a C-list lineup (with Hiram Bocachica, who has been playing the Mexican Leagues the previous two seasons, batting third), Liriano’s fastball looked erratic and he struggled to locate the catcher’s target. In similar fashion to 2011, he mixed in his two-seamed fastball to right-handed opponents which ran up-and-away. Also like last season, of the eight batters he faced, he fell behind all but two. In all, one and two-thirds innings of work and 37 pitches required.

To reiterate, Liriano has plenty of time left to re-establish the command of his fastball and work at striking first against opponents. I'm not going to chastise him for one outing, however, if you were looking for early signs of progress in his first start in the winter leagues, you didn't get it.