The Twins
have frequently been accused of not catering to power arms and also not taking
risks on their offseason signings. On Sunday, they may have made inroads in
both areas by agreeing to a deal, pending a physical, with former Tigers
flame-thrower Joel Zumaya.
According to Joe
Christensen, the Twins and Zumaya have agreed to terms of a deal worth
$800,000, with the potential of adding another $900,000 of incentives based on
innings pitched, pending a physical.
Fastest
Fastball (2007-2010)
|
||
Name
|
FB%
|
FBv
|
Joel Zumaya
|
81.30%
|
98.5
|
Daniel Bard
|
72.90%
|
97.7
|
Matt Lindstrom
|
73.10%
|
96.4
|
Neftali Feliz
|
78.70%
|
96.2
|
Jonathan Broxton
|
73.30%
|
96.1
|
Brian Wilson
|
67.20%
|
96.1
|
Jason Motte
|
79.40%
|
95.9
|
Zumaya, the
talented yet often injured pitcher, has drawn some interest this offseason. In
early December, the free agent Zumaya was in Houston to throw off the mound in
front of teams. Fox Sports’ Jon Morosi
tweeted that a scout told him that “almost every team was there” to watch him. Reports
from the Texas audition were that the 27-year-old right hander was throwing in
the mid-90s, down slightly from his 98.5 mile-per-hour average from 2007
through 2010.
Based on
this, several team courted Zumaya as a potential buy-low, reward-high type of
arm. Both Boston and San Diego were engaged in talks with him but, as the
Boston Globe’s Nick
Cafardo reported, one AL team’s doctors did not believe that Zumaya would
be able to pass a physical in order to be signed. Because the concern, it is easy to see why he
would be available for under a million.
As you can
glean from the chart above, Zumaya’s fastball is pure diesel fuel. From 2007 to
2010, Zumaya averaged the hardest fastball in the majors. Although an
impressive feat, his regular absence from the active roster was a true
detriment.
After bursting
onto the scene in 2006 as a hot-shot 22-year-old reliever, he supposedly destroyed his elbow in 2006 by
playing Guitar Hero too much (a video
game that is no longer available either). In 2007, Zumaya missed extended time
when he dislocated
his finger while warming up in the bullpen and threw just 33.2 innings that
season. Those 33.2 innings would be the most he would throw in a single season
outside of his rookie year. In November of 2007, he would require AC joint reconstruction
in his throwing shoulder (which he injured removing items from his Southern California
homes during one of the wildfires) and missed a substantial portion of the
2008 season. The following year he would re-aggravate the shoulder in July of
2009 and wound up on the DL as the pain kept
him from being able to lift his arm above his head. Finally, in 2010 most
Twins fans were witness to Zumaya’s elbow exploding (a fractured olecranon) on a 99-mile-per-hour pitch to Delmon Young. He would miss the entire 2011 season because of that
last injury, which necessitated a subsequent surgical procedure to replace a
screw that was inserted into his elbow after the fracture.
Given the
laundry list of ailments, it wouldn’t surprise me that during his impending
physical that those doctors discover that his elbow is being held together with
rubber band and duct tape.
Clearly,
there is an injury risk associated with him but when healthy, he’s been a
dominate arm in the bullpen. Over his career, he’s thrown 209.1 innings,
striking out 23.1% of all batters faced and holding opponents to a .213 average
against. However, unlike the majority of his Twin counterparts, Zumaya’s been a
bit erratic with his control. His 12.8 % walk rate dating back to 2007 has been
one of the league’s higher numbers in that period. Because of the various
injuries, you can see how they would affect his command, particularly in 2008
and 2009 when he was recovering from shoulder surgery (44 walks in 54.1
innings). Considering he is recovering from elbow surgery this time around, it
is very possible that Zumaya will struggle with his control in 2012.
If things
work out favorable for Zumaya in the health department, it is an exciting move
that could transform the look of the bullpen, giving Ron Gardenhire a viable
late innings right-handed option that was missing from the 2011 squad. At the
same time, we must remember that Zumaya is coming off surgery that really has
no comparables that would indicate how he will respond. Early indications
suggest that the velocity is not quite what it was – as Phil Mackey
tweeted, the Twins clocked Zumaya between 92-94 miles per hour – so while
it is still good readings, you have to wonder if several ticks off the fastball
(one that is thrown up and over the plate) translates into a few more hits. On
top of that, there are some team doctors who simply do not think he would pass
a physical let alone finish an entire season.
This is
certainly an out-of-the-box move for the Twins. We’ve seen a steady history of
safe bets - those low-risk/ low-reward acquisitions for the bullpen that have
become the organization’s MO. Zumaya, who’s obviously a high risk with his
injury history, yet he represents a very high reward. With less a million
dollars invested, the Zumaya signing is a good gamble for Minnesota.
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