Rumors swirl as winter meetings begin

The GM Winter Meetings starts today in Dallas and the event holds plenty of promise for adding new faces to the roster - including potentially finding a starting pitcher to complete the rotation.

The Twins were aggressive with the left-handed Chris Capuano but ultimately lost out to the Los Angeles Dodgers when the veteran decided to sign for a two-year, $10 million to stay in the National League last week. Nevertheless, reports surfaced that the team has been connected to free agents Jeff Francis and Edwin Jackson.

Jackson is a fairly young (28), right-handed power arm (averages 94.5 miles per hour on his fastball) who has been a 3-wins above replacement the previous two seasons and is now poised to command a multi-year deal which we estimated to be in the ballpark of three years at $11 million per year.  Francis, on the other hand, is a slightly older (31 in 2012), left-handed soft-tosser (managed to average just 84.7 miles per hour on his “heater”) who has averaging 2-wins above replacement the past two years and is fortunate if he gets offered employment for one year.

The likes of Jeff Francis and Edwin Jackson couldn’t be any further away from each other on the pitcher spectrum. Jackson is a hard-throwing fastball/slider guy while Francis is a control-oriented, slow-slower-and-slowest pitcher. Having interest in the pair is like being at the bar and trying to decide between a shot of bourbon or a wine cooler. Yet, when you peeled back some of the data, you can see that these two have a lot of common ground.

The pairs’ fastballs, with an almost ten mile per hour discrepancy between them, could not elicit a different response. Some people have actually attempt to compare Edwin Jackson to the legendary Bob Gibson, Jeff Francis’s fastball reminds people of Debbie Gibson. Still, even with the difference it is amazing that they both wound up with similar results on the pitch:

Comparing Fastball Results (2011)
	Velocity	%Pitches	Miss%	Well-Hit Avg	Ground Ball%
Edwin Jackson	94.5	55%	10%	.295	44%
Jeff Francis	84.7	53%	11%	.278	48%
MLB Avg	92.0	62%	15%	.248	44%

(via Inside Edge)

For the most part, both of the pitchers’ fastballs were below average in all categories. Jackson clearly had an advantage in the velocity department as his fastball held the fifth-highest velocity on average in 2010. Meanwhile Francis had the second slowest fastball in baseball, trailing the Nationals’ Livan Hernandez for that honor. In spite of having the livelier fastball, it was Francis who was able to get more batters to miss. Likewise, it was Francis’s ground ball tendencies that put him slightly better than the norm and thus likely caused his well-hit average to be twenty points lower in that category than Jackson.

Jackson, blessed numbers that set radar gun-enthusiasts hearts aflutter, typically just hurls his fastball to the fat part of the zone. He is a “here-hit-this” type of pitcher. As it turns out, opponents do hit it. Conversely, not afforded the same genetics, Francis is forced to work the outer-half and just off the plate in attempt to coerce the softer contact.

What separates the two pitchers is their secondary offerings. Jackson is reliant on his slider while Francis works in a changeup. Jackson’s slider has been able to generate a high percentage of swing-and-misses (34% miss percentage). Francis favors the changeup which nets him a swing-and-miss of 23% but a high rate of grounders. It is because of this that Jackson has been able to strikeout 17.2% of hitters faced while Francis has been only able to whiff 11.3%.

But strikeouts don’t tell the entire story. Sure, they are a great predictor of future success but it does not paint a picture of the complete pitcher.

In 2011, both Jackson and Francis both shared a WHIP of 1.44 - meaning they averaged roughly the same amount of base-runners over the season. Jackson had struggled with his control over his career whereas Francis has actually improved his since his injury, cutting down his walks in the past two years. Both give up a hefty number of hits. Because of his down-the-middle approach, Jackson had a much higher line drive rate as hitters were able to square up more. Francis’s attempts to incite contact indubitably led to base hits. In the end, Jackson has been roughly one win above replacement better than Francis (or he provided his team with $5 million in more “value”) yet he will be able to land a deal worth three times as much as Francis in both years and dollars.

Current Free Agent SP WAR (2011)
Name	WAR
C.J. Wilson	5.9
Edwin Jackson	3.8
Mark Buehrle	3.4
Javier Vazquez	3.2
Bartolo Colon	2.9
Jeff Francis	2.6
Roy Oswalt	2.5
Hiroki Kuroda	2.4
Erik Bedard	2.4
Paul Maholm	2.1

Presented with the option between the two, odds are that the vast majority of fans would prefer Jackson over Francis eight days a week (I’m certain a quick scroll through the comments section will validate this). The reality is that likelihood of landing Jackson, who is one of the top free agents on the market due to a small pool of starting pitchers and a Scott Boras client, is minimal. As mentioned above, he stands to collect a decent paycheck for the next few years which the Twins budget does not appear able to accommodate. And, given the interworking of his arsenal, I would say that he stands to be overpaid as well.

If you are looking at it from a purely investment standpoint, for an organization that has stated it has a $100 million payroll budget, bringing in Francis would make more sense – giving the team flexibility to address other areas like the bullpen or an outfielder. Guys like Mark Buehrle and Edwin Jackson are poised to make northwards of $10 million next year and will provide a small uptick in value over Francis who will likely make south of $5 million.

Signing Francis would not be a sexy acquisition in any shape or form. It would be settling. He has proven capable enough to throw over 180 innings and, even with an unimpressive repertoire, he has shown that he can almost match Jackson’s output. With a better defense and a more supportive lineup, Francis has the potential to post a better season in 2012 than in 2011 – at a reasonable price.

Twins should put their closer search on hold

In efforts to rekindle the passion that has subsided after a disappointing summer, the Twins hosted yet another one of their fan forums. This time, it was general manager Terry Ryan’s turn to attempt to talk the disgruntled down from their ledge.

Howard Sinker listened in on the conference call, one that allowed season ticketholders to interact with the man in charge of the team’s roster construction, and Sinker relayed to his non-season ticketholding twitter followers the talking points in 140-characters or less. In outlining his offseason plans, Ryan said that two of the immediate priorities were finding a closer as well as another starting pitcher.

Ryan has made several mentions of his plans when it comes to addressing the closer’s role. He told listeners on 1500 ESPN that Glen Perkins was not going to inherit the role and that he is looking for an “experienced closer.”  Last night, Ryan commented that the Twins are currently targeting pitchers outside of the organization, mentioning that that person could come in the form of a free agent or possibly through a trade.

The question is, why are the Twins making finding a closer such a high priority?

It’s easy to understand from the team’s perspective. Last year the Twins had 52 save opportunities and the back of the bullpen managed to hold on to just 62% of those. That was the lowest save conversion rate for the franchise since the 1997 season team converted on just 61% of their save chances.

This was clearly a black-eye for the organization that had prided itself on securing games for most of the century. After all, since 2002, they have recorded more saves than Billy Graham.

But here’s the thing: those 52 save opportunities were also tied with the Boston Red Sox for fourth fewest in baseball. Boston’s lack of save opportunities only stems from having baseball’s most potent offense which averaged 5.4 runs per game. The Twins, unlike their Red Sox counterparts, were not afforded the same luxury of running away with ballgames considering they average the second fewest runs per game in the American League (3.82 runs per game) and the fifth-lowest in all of baseball.

And therein lies the problem.

The front office is seemingly trying to stop the bleeding where the team blew a handful of save opportunities when the real problem is that the majority of their games played did not require a closer because the bats were flaccid or the starting rotation failed to keep the game within reach (they allowed 4.96 runs per game, second-most in baseball) or both. Focusing on a closer now would be like putting a tourniquet on a paper cut on one leg while the other leg is lopped off at the knee and still hemorrhaging blood everywhere.

Yes, the anticipated return of Denard Span, Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer along with the addition of Ryan Doumit should assist in a modest uptick in offensive production. Yes, the acquisition of Jamey Carroll should hopefully fortify the middle infield and support the pitching staff. And perhaps the future addition of someone like Chris Capuano, who the Twins have expressed interest in, will help solidify the rotation as Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn all regain their health. Still, is all of that enough to raise the runs scored and shave off the pitching staff’s runs allowed – at least to the point where you may be creating more save opportunities?

To me, that is not enough to do so. As Joe Christensen wrote about earlier this week, the team is growing perilously close to that $100 million mark that was estimated to be the 2012 budget capacity. At an approximate $87.7 million now, sinking $7 million or more for the going rate of an “experienced closer” would leave the team front office with $6 million or less to address the other outstanding issues (starting pitcher, outfielder, bullpen depth, etc).

Building a strong bullpen is one thing; doing so by throwing money at a closer with an extensive resume is the wrong way. Rather than sink money into an experience closer, the Twins should be taking a cue from the Tampa Bay Rays, who have been very successful at compiling a relief staff on a shoestring budget. They coaxed some of the best work out of retreads in Troy Percival and Kyle Farnsworth while landing Rafael Soriano from Atlanta in a severely lopsided trade in their favor.

Ultimately, the Twins will need someone to close but they do not need to land a budget-buster to do so. Instead of trying to reel in the big closer fish, the Twins should be targeting the likes of Takashi Saito, who pitched well in the set-up role for the Brewers after closing for the Dodgers from 2006-2008. Or taking a look Joel Zumaya who is scheduled to pitch for scouts in mid-December and find out if he can be this year’s Joaquin Benoit, a recovering power arm in need of a one-year deal. Heck, find out if the Rangers will part with Koji Uehara, who had a brief stint as a closer in Baltimore and has the highest K/BB ratio (10.00) among relievers since 2009 as well as the second highest strikeout percentage (33.6%), now that Texas has signed Joe Nathan.

Instead of allocating a high percentage of what’s left of the 2012 budget on a player whose contributions may be minimal, the Twins should rededicate that funding towards the starting rotation, grabbing an outfielder and buttressing the rest of the bullpen while spending what is leftover on a closer.

In the end, if you don’t have save opportunities, what good is a closer anyway?

******

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Duensing was made for the bullpen

While the Twins try to piecemeal together their once glorious bullpen that has now been blown to smithereens, there is one player already on the roster who should help make the late innings much less of an adventure.

As the Star Tribune’s Joe Christensen reported that the team is bumping Brian Duensing from the rotation and relocating him back to the bullpen.

If you separate out the data from Duensing’s match-ups against same-sided opponents, you would see a pitcher with a tremendous track record:

Duensing vs Left-Handed Hitters (2009-11)
	PAs	K%	BB%	GB%	Swg. Str%
2009	90	21.1%	6.7%	60%	24%
2010	153	22.2%	4.6%	53%	28%
2011	187	20.3%	3.2%	55%	23%

(via Fangraphs & Inside Edge)

Last season, Duensing held lefties to a .210 batting average against, the 14^th-lowest among qualified MLB starters last year. What’s more is that Inside Edge’s video scouts found that lefties had a .103 well-hit average off of him – the best in baseball - meaning that nobody on the left was able to put good wood on the ball.

He absolutely stunned them with his outstanding slider. Against his slider, they had a .036 well-hit average (fourth best in baseball) and routinely beat the ball into the ground (61%) for an easy conversion to an out.

Meanwhile, his peripheral stat line against right-handed opponents paints the picture of a much more ordinary and pedestrian hurler:

Duensing vs Right-Handed Hitters (2009-11)
	PAs	K%	BB%	GB%	Swg. Str%
2009	269	12.6%	9.3%	44%	17%
2010	382	11.5%	7.3%	52%	14%
2011	524	14.7%	8.8%	41%	18%

(via Fangraphs & Inside Edge)

Of course, we know the results in 2011 were not simply “pedestrian”, they were an abomination. Thanks to righties teeing off on him, their .558 slugging percentage and their .329 batting average against him paced baseball.

Part of the reason for this barrage was due to his inability to keep the ball down against righties – which I pointed out back in August. Specifically, Duensing failed to his two main pitches to righties down: his fastball and his changeup. His fastball, on average, finished a little over an inch higher in the zone than it did in 2010. His change, his favored secondary offering to righties, finished nearly two inches higher on average in 2011 over the previous season. Because of this, Duensing experienced a significant spike in the amount of square contact being made. His line drive rate allowed to right-handers rose from 15.7% in 2010 to 22.2% last year.

To be honest, I have had troubles pinpointing what in his delivery has caused this much fluctuation. Video wises, it is hard to pick up on any major changes. Judging from pitch f/x data, however, it would appear that he is dropping his arm angle slightly for his changeup. His average release point on his changeup to righties in 2010 was several inches higher and several inches closer towards first base. This may be an indication that he was been lowering his arm slot when releasing his change thus having it remain up in the zone rather than staying on top of it.

Interestingly enough, the video scouts at Inside Edge did not feel that right-handers actually smashed the ball around off of him as much as his the stats from the previous two paragraphs would indicate. According to them, they concluded that righties had a .236 well-hit average off of him. It was well above the league’s average but 17 other starters saw harder contact including Tampa’s David Price and Arizona’s Ian Kennedy.

So here’s what we know: Duensing’s stuff is stupid good against lefties. If he is limited to a higher portion of left-handed match-ups, as would be the case if he had the luxury of being inserted into those prime situations in a given ball game, he will likely succeed and put up very good numbers. We also know now that he struggles mightily against right-handed opponents. Given a higher pool of those opponents to face in 2011, overexposed Duensing was battered continuously. Then again, he demonstrated in 2010 that when he was able to locate his pitches properly, he was able to keep righties from launching an extra base hit assault (52% groundball rate is not too shabby).  

I tried to make it abundantly clear last year heading into spring camp that his arsenal is best suited for relief. Yes, he had some impressive outings in 2010 but that did not detract from the fact that he would be substantially more effective among the relievers. Without any outside additions or prospects ready to move him from the rotation, the Twins decided to let their good fortune ride. His results in 2011 should more or less solidify this fact in concrete: Duensing is made for the bullpen.

An introduction to Ryan Doumit's offense

The Twins front office worked quickly on the free agent market this winter, first signing Jamey Carroll to a two-year deal and now on the verge of inking Ryan Doumit to a one-year contract (pending a physical on Monday).

With the Twins looking to use the 30-year-old Doumit in a variety of ways (catching, first base, right field and DH), it is clear that they envision him to be an offense-first contributor. Doumit has had some ups and downs at the plate, many of these peaks and valleys are likely due to his laundry list of injuries over the course of his career.

For the most part, the switch-hitter has thrived at the left-side of the plate (798 OPS) but has been somewhat less effective from the right (718) during his seven years at the major league level. As a lefty, Doumit is a significant pull hitter, yanking 58.2% of all balls in play to the right side of the field:

Because he hits a high percentage of line drives this direction (over 20% of his career), Doumit has posted decent numbers. His left-side power numbers have been bolstered from playing at PNC Park – a field which is 320 feet to the right field corner despite a 21-foot tall wall – and he has hit 41 of his 67 career home runs in Pittsburgh. This approach may actually transfer well into Target Field. Target has very similar configurations to PNC, aside from the right field wall being eight feet further back and the wall being two feet taller, left-handed hitters have found the space between the foul pole and the stadium’s overhang seats to be very inviting.

Meanwhile, from the right side, Doumit is also a pull hitter:

The difference, however, is that from the right side, Doumit is much more prone to knocking the ball straight into the ground, bouncing out to third and short quite often (58% for his career). He does have a high tendency of line drives this direction as well but does not hit many fly balls. This means you won’t see a ton of home runs coming from what is his natural side (1 every 50 PAs on the right side versus 1 every 28 from the left).

The thick-built Doumit isn’t necessarily a prototypical “power hitter”. The most home runs he has hit in a season was 18 in 2005 split between AAA Indianapolis (12) and Pittsburgh (6). Yes, injuries have likely curbed some of his power one aspect of his swing stands out to me as a potential power restrictor.

Unlike the vast majority of major league hitters, Doumit does not pivot on his back foot – from either side of the plate. Whereas the rest of the offensive population tends to twist their back foot (a reverse pivot), Doumit keeps his foot planted and his heel to the ground. Here is an example from the left-side of the plate:

Compare that to Jason Kubel’s swing:

Here is Doumit’s swing from the right-side of the plate:

Now compare that to Michael Cuddyer’s swing:

While Doumit still has plenty of positive weight transfer and unloads his hips extremely well, not pivoting off of his back leg foot means that his upper body is doing more of the heavy lifting. Strong individuals have had some success swinging like this. Early in his career, White Sox right fielder Carlos Quinten shared this trait, performing extremely well in 2008, but has since changed his mechanics in recent years. So, although he’s got plenty of strength, Doumit is likely not generating the maximum amount of power he could if he swung more conventionally.

So what does the future hold for Doumit in Minnesota?

This past season in Pittsburgh, he posted what was perhaps his best season in limited time hitting a healthy .303/.353/.477 in 236 plate appearances. Going forward, I anticipate he will experience some drainage in his batting average and his on-base percentage next year.

On his way to the best season of his career in 2011, Doumit managed to hold a .331 batting average on balls in play – well above his .304 career average. Part of the explanation behind that was because a substantial amount of ground balls became hits (35.2% vs. 24.0% league average) which for a player with slower foot speed like Doumit, I would wager that a higher percentage of those bouncers are converted into outs in 2012.

On the other hand, even though his walk rate dropped, Doumit made some strides in his plate discipline.  He became increasingly patient at the dish. After swinging at 45.8 percent of pitches in 2010, he offered at just 42.4 percent this season, also reducing the rate in which he chased pitches outside of the strike zone (27% down from 32%). This helped trim down his strikeout rate from 19 percent to 15 percent. If he can continue this kind of restraint in 2012, he’ll likely see that walk rate rise again which may help his on-base percentage stay afloat despite the projected decline in his BABIP.

With a one-year deal, there is little risk involved for the organization. Signing Doumit provides the Twins roster with a player who can – at the very least – stand at a handful of positions and provide above-average production at the plate.