What About Boof?

Not long after Boof Bonser's sentence to the bullpen, I analyzed Boof's pitching through the use of pitch f/x.  My conclusion at the time was that his slider, a pitch he threw nearly a quarter of the time to righties, was flattening out at that time in the season, resulting in an unexpectedly high .288/.322/.441 batting line against righties as of June 14th.  Still, at the conclusion of the season, Bonser had improved his approach against the same-sided opponents, dropping his batting line against to .260/.295/.405, suggesting that he had regained his slider and his repertoire was playing well in the 'pen, a sign that he could be capable of assuming a meatier role in the 2009 bullpen. 

 

In addition to this in-season improvement, there are several other statistical indications that -- as the Counting Crows song so eloquently puts it -- this year could be better than the last.  For starters, his fielding independent metric of 4.51 was much better than his swollen 5.93 ERA.  Secondly, his left-on-base percentage of 57.9% and those with severely low LOB% sometimes rebound the following season.   Lastly, Bonser's candidacy as a solid bullpen contributor is buttressed by his minor league legacy.  Over the course of seven minor league seasons, Bonser has struck out 916 batters in 884.1 innings while walking just 398.  His last full season at AAA in 2005, Bonser led the International League in strikeouts. 

 

It is hard to refute those three cited examples as justifiable reasons for Bonser being anything but an excellent internal candidate for the vacant set-up role.  However, if you look closer at his numbers, there are two glaring problems with Bonser's game that supersedes his ability to be an effective reliever in high leverage situations: (1) He is useless against left-handed opponents and (2) He can't pitch from the stretch. 

 

The first is his approach against left-handed opponents. 

 

vs LHB	Bonser	RHP League-Average vs LHB
2006	.251/.305/.451	.279/.349/.446
2007	.349/.407/.563	.275/.349/.438
2008	.315/.378/.486	.269/.346/.430

 

Lefties are a demographic that had not given Bonser trouble in 2006 but were suddenly a blight on his landscape in 2007.  In his first year, Bonser had limited lefties to a .251/.305/.451 batting line.  In the subsequent season, it swelled to .349/.407/.563.  Prior to his demotion to the bullpen, Bonser had improved upon his 2007 numbers with a .297/.322/.441 line.  Unfortunately he regressed in the 'pen and at the 2008 season's end, lefties had hit a collective .315/.378/.486.  If you are looking for a silver-lining, it was a tad better than his 2007 numbers on the whole, however, the bulk of the destruction happened when Bonser was in relief.

 

More recently, in 12 starts in 2008, Bonser had thrown 66.1 innings with a 42/20 K/BB and high 7.08 RA but a low .267/.316/.418 opponent batting line.  Following his transition to the bullpen, Bonser threw 52 innings and compiled a 55/16 K/BB ratio but still posted a 6.02 RA as opponents batted .307/.353/.474 off of him.  As I mentioned above, Bonser's opponent average against right-handers DROPPED when converted to a reliever.  On the other hand, up until June 14th lefties were hitting .297/.322/.441.  At the end of the season, it rose to to a firm .315/.378/.486.  The inflated batting line as a reliever came in direct result of left-handed opponents. 

 

The second problem is that he is atrocious when pitching from the stretch (something that relievers are requested to frequently, often with the game on the line).  Similar to his left-handed struggles, pitching with runners on manifested itself after his rookie season. 

 

Runner On Base	Bonser	League-Average
2006	.267/.319/.466	.274/.348/.425
2007	.294/.367/.478	.277/.350/.430
2008	.322/.349/.467	.274/.348/.425

 

What seems to be given him the biggest problem is when runners are on first - more so than any other base path alignment. 

 

Runner On First	Bonser	League-Average
2006	.295/.313/.526	.277/.335/.435
2007	.360/.416/.640	.284/.342/.442
2008	.369/.411/.500	.277/.348/.425

 

In addition to the higher batting line, Bonser's stolen base rate skyrocketed too from 57% SB% in 2006 (4 in 7), 61% in 2007 (11 in 18) and 100% in 2008 (11 of 11).   Considering that limiting a baserunner from scoring may be more important in the later innings in a high leverage situation, Bonser appears to be a liability under these circumstances.  Clearly this is a bigger problem than his weight.  This is a mental issue. 

 

That said, the benefit about being a reliever is that you do have a manager that can use you at appropriate times as to not exacerbate your weaknesses.  Bonser can be inserted during times when three right-handed batters are due up.  Naturally, this leaves him susceptible to the occasional left-handed pinch hitter, but those are seldomly fearsome.  Where Bonser becomes an issue is when he allows one of those hypothetical batters to reach base and forces Gardenhire to select from allowing Bonser to continue to face Hafner, Martinez, Thome, etc. with a runner on first -- which, as we've seen above, is a recipe for disaster -- or bring in a left-handed situational reliever (Breslow/Mijares), if any are available.  That begs the question, how common is it that three right-handed batters are batting in succession without a leftie giving them reprieve?  How likely is it that Gardenhire will save Breslow or Mijares until after Bonser pitches?  In the end, a solid 8th Inning Guy, like a closer, should not need this much management.  Bonser is simply not that guy. 

Odds. Ends. (01.05.08)

 

• Traveshamockery or not?  The Indians' acquisition of Mark DeRosa was met with quasi-outrage by La Velle when he first reported on his blog.  Admittedly, I too was keen on DeRosa for several reasons.  For starters, in comparison to Adrian Beltre's $12 million, DeRosa was due only $5.5 million in 2009, a reasonable addition to the Twins' payroll.  Secondly, he had repeat back-to-back seasons in which his on-base percentage was above .370 along with a walk rate that increased from 7.8% to 10.4% to 12.0% over the past three years indicating that he is showing a mature plate approach in his early 30s.  Furthermore, he appears to be an intelligent baserunner.  In 2008, he swiped six bases and did not get caught once.  Finally, he has peppered the field with line drives - hitting 22% of batted balls in this manner since 2006 - an indication that his rather high .325 BABIP is not a fluke.  Though you might be able to dismiss his home run potential as being in the 10-15 range in 2009, you cannot overlook the fact that between his patience and method he would not have improved the Twins ballclub. 
• That Said...It is easy to say in retrospect the Twins should have scrounged up three borderline prospects to equal Cleveland's offer.  As La Velle outlined, the three prospects the Indians turned over were hardly bluechippers.  If DeRosa turns in a season that declines even slightly, he will be a likely candidate for a Type A or Type B free agent, netting Cleveland at least one draft pick to replenish the trio lost.  However, negotiations with one organization might not reflect ones with another.  For example, during the winter meetings the reports were that the Cubs wanted Jason Kubel in return.  It could be quite possible that the Cubs viewed this as equal value while the Twins scoffed at the idea.  A few weeks later, Chicago Tribune columnist Phil Rogers wrote that the Cubs might be interested in moving DeRosa if "they got a package of solid prospects, like outfielder Ben Revere and pitchers Jose Mijares, Jeff Manship and Andy Swarzak (sic)."  The Twins consider Mijares a potential suitor for the bullpen in the immediate future and Swarzak might also be a contributor as the season progresses.  Though I might consider Manship a viable trading chip, the other three should be used only on an acquisition of a player that would remain with the Twins for more than one season.  To dispell the organization's passive tendencies this offseason, GM Bill Smith told the PiPress's Charley Walters "We're trying; we're working hard at it, but a lot of deals that people have asked for, if we made them, people would really be mad at us. We've explored a lot; we've got a lot of people working on evaluations. But we haven't found a deal that makes us better without giving up our future, and we're not going to do that."
• Last word on DeRosa...I've seen on numerous message boards that DeRosa would have fit nicely in the number two spot -- and if I were a lineup consultant that is the recommendation I would have made too.  Putting a player that has the ability to produce a .370 on-base percentage is statistically sound -- which would get two players on base in front of Mauer and Morneau -- however, Ron Gardenhire seems to be of the mind that believes bat control and the ability to advance runners through sacrificing are the key attributes of a number two hitter.  Had DeRosa been at his disposal, I would be inclined to think he would have batted him sixth, seventh or eighth, similar to where he batted with the Cubs in 2008.  As I mentioned previously, the Harris-Buscher platoon hit .294/.346/.436 (.782 OPS) after June 14th when they became the regular third base tandum.  So even though DeRosa was not acquired, I believe the upgrade would have been marginal at best over the pair. 
• Knucking Things Up. When the Twins resigned R.A. Dickey for the second time in as many offseasons, it became clear that the organization was determined to follow through on allocating a knuckleball pitcher to throw in the climate-controlled Metrodome.  This to me, is fascinating for because this is a fairly progressive strategy for the Twins organization.  Of course, the knuckleball is far from a new idea -- as it was in vogue since the early 1900s -- sabermetrician and former Ranger employee, Craig R. Wright, who porposed the implementation of a knuckleball program in the 1980s.  His suggest never caught on at the time as most of baseball at the time saw the knuckleball not so much like the Metrodome's climate, but unpredictable and fell out of fashion in the developmental ranks.  Remember Bob Uecker's tip for catching them?  "You wait until it stops rolling and pick it up," quipped the former catcher and current Brewers radio announcer.  In 1989 Wright and former pitching coach Tom House co-authored "The Diamond Appraised" in efforts to provide both slants on highly debated topics and issues.  In one chapter, titled "The Knuckleball: Baseball's Most Underrated Pitch", Wright outlined a historical perspective of the pitch and why it fell to the wayside -- mostly out lack of young pitchers developing the pitch -- and it died out.  “Catchers hate it,” Jim Bouton, the author of “Ball Four: My Life and Hard Times Throwing the Knuckleball in the Big Leagues,” said to the New Yorker. “Nobody likes to warm up with you. Coaches don’t respect it. You can pitch seven good innings with a knuckleball, and as soon as you walk a guy they go, ‘See, there’s that damn knuckleball.’”  Wright's chapter set to work dispelling the myth that the knuckleball is inherently wild.  He cited the walk rate of a dozen knuckleballers, like Wilbur Wood, Charlie Hough, Phil Niekro and showed their walk rates were at or below league average at the time.  Wright concluded this by saying more organizations should take the opportunity to teach a pitch at a lower-level in the farm system. He suggested that five or six borderline prospects be identified to be candidates to convert to a knuckleball.  This is oddly close to what Ron Gardenhire has proposed -- maybe I've underestimated his thinking (or at least reading habits).  Now professional baseball has Tim Wakefield, Charlie Zink, Charlie Haeger (who Mankato Free Press's Ed Thoma thinks is worth a big league shot), Dickey and Lance Niekro, the former Giants first base prospect who is working his way up in the Braves organization using the flutterball.
• Turning Japanese.  The Toyko Times is reporting that there are three teams remaining in the bidding for former Dragons pitcher Kenshin Kawakami: the Orioles, Cardinals and the Twins.  Several different sources suggest that Kawakami is comparable to current Dodger Hiroki Kuroda, who finished his first year state side with a 9-10 record with a 3.73 ERA and 116-to-42 K-to-BB in 183 innings of work.  Back East, the Daily Yomuri Online took a look at the duo's Japan League career.  The author cited that Kawakami pitched in an extremely pitcher-friendly ballpark with a high scoring offense and a very solid bullpen.  Kuroda, on the other hand, played in the homer friendly Hiroshima Citizens Stadium with a poor defense.  When Kuroda reached the Majors, he was placed in the pitching-friendly Dodger Stadium where he thrived, going 6-2 with a 3.68 ERA. 
• Honest Work.  The New York Times had a refreshing story on the Arizona Diamondbacks' prospect, Clay Zavada, from Streator, Illinois.  The tale of Zavada is one of many of typical minor leaguer signed in the late rounds (Zavada was drafted in the 30th and received a bonus of $1,000) and have make little during the season (Zavada makes roughly $280 a week in the Midwest League).  “Not all of these guys are getting million-dollar bonuses,” said A. J. Hinch, the director of player development for the Diamondbacks. “I don’t know that everybody is quite aware of what these guys go through in order to give themselves a chance to make it.”

Adieu, 2008.

Now that the first complete calender year of Twins blogging at Over The Baggy is almost over, I want to take the opportunity to those out there that have made the visits -- over 35,000 stops in all in 2008.  Regularly or irregularly, I know you have umpteen Twins blogs to choose from and I appreciate you taking time out of your day to peruse the writings and jottings left up here.    

 

A special thanks goes out to the Twins Geek, John Bonnes, who was kind enough to let me pen some dribble for his GameDay magazine.  Blogging is one thing, but to have words written on dead trees that feels...well, kind of archaic by technological standards, but it is easier to read in the bathroom.  Jokes aside, it is a great periodical to procure when you are at the Dome and are looking for more indepth analysis of the Twins (and baseball in general) that is not offered by the publication sold inside the stadium.  Having visited nearly a dozen Major League stadiums over the summer that lack such an offering, I can say that it says a lot about (1) the academic nature of the fans and (2) entrepruenurialism of our local community that provides an alternative to progandaish in-house program.  I believe that Twins fans are some of the best educated in the country considering the amount of blogs dedicated to and the material offered within them.

 

I want to thank the Twins Blogger Extraordinaire, author of AaronGleeman.com, Aaron Gleeman, who connected me with a small smattering of blurbing for Rotoworld and also recommending me to Dave Gassko of The Hardball Times.  Because of this, Gassko contacted me to write the Twins section and players comments in the forthcoming The Hardball Times Season Preview 2009 -- Which, by the way, you can pre-order the book here for a mere $19.95.  Gleeman's site continues to mesmerize me by the sheer volume of work he uploads and the breadth of the topics.  In a way, Gleeman has become to the Twin Cities what Bill Simmons was to Boston (except less obnoxious about his homerism and not on the ESPN payroll -- yet) providing unending and uncompromising coverage of the hometown Twins and coupling that with entertaining Link-O-Ramas that diverge from sports at times to fill the doldrums of Friday mornings. 

Finally, Seth Stohs, of SethSpeaks.net, has been a great resource, allowing me a sneak preview of his Prospect Handbook 2009 in order to scribe a short review on the manuscript.  In addition to frequently linking to my site, he's been kind enough to have me on his Weekly Podcasts several times only to listen to me stammer and lose my train of thought miles before the conclusion station arrives.  Most recently in last night's podcast that included Twins prospects Kyle Waldrop and Jeff Manship.  Stohs's new venture to podcasting has allowed him to unveil what seems to be never-ending appearances by Twins prospects, providing fans with not just information, but a forum for dialogue to the future of the organization long before they call 34 Kirby Puckett Place home (most never will now, I suppose).  This sort of action would have blown my mind as a 12-year-old and yet, at times, I cannot fully believe how much the proliferation of the Internet has allowed us to connect with players that were once just a last name one day a week in the Star Tribune.  What a world we live in - and Stohs is helping making it a little bit smaller for Twins fans. 

 

There are plenty of other bloggers who I read daily myself (most of which are linked above but dozens of others that are not) and their writings continue to give me something to chew on or be entertained by day-in and day-out, they are deserving of my thanks and your patronage too.  I hope to continue to provide meaningful insight and analysis to fill a small corner of the Internet in 2009.  Please continue to visit in the coming year.  Here's shooting for 70,000 in 2009. 

 

Thanks again to all and have a happy and safe New Years! 

 

The Curious Case of Matthew Guerrier

In 2006, the Twins had Matt Guerrier supply 69.2 innings of low leverage relief work, performing adequately evident by his 3.77 Runs Allowed Average.  His overall season totals would have been much better had September been extracted.  In that month, Guerrier threw 23.1 innings (including one start) and allowed seven of his nine home runs along with an opponent slugging percentage of .549.  No matter, the following season Guerrier began like September of 2006 never happened.  In his first 15 innings, Guerrier limited opponents to a .122 BA.  Through June 24th of 2007, Guerrier held opponents to a .164 BA and had a decent 33-to-11 K-to-BB ratio.  This performance coupled with the losses of Dennys Reyes, Jesse Crain and Pat Neshek gave Guerrier the opportunity to pitch in high leverage situations.  In 2006, his leverage index was 0.50 but increased to 0.93 at the conclusion of 2007.  But with the added responsibility came the added challenges of retiring better hitters.  In the first half of the season, Guerrier had a 1.70 Runs Allowed Average supported by a .183/.246/.253 opponent batting line and surrendered just two home runs.  Following the All Star break, Guerrier's numbers were in flux.  His RAA ballooned to 3.34 from the 1.70 in the first half and opponents hit .272/.318/.463 while smacking seven home runs.   

 

Similar to 2007, the Twins were put in a situation without Neshek, this time early in the season.  Once again manager Ron Gardenhire turned to Guerrier and had him fill the majority of those high leverage situations (1.27 in 2008, up from 0.93).  In 51 innings in the first half of the season, Guerrier posted a 3.70 RAA with a 38-to-21 K-to-BB ratio.  In 217 plate appearances opponents hit .241/.315/.374.  Once again after the All Star break Guerrier found himself in another precarious situation where he was getting pummeled.  In the ensuing 25.1 innings, he held a 9.32 RAA and allowed seven home runs with a .336/.417/.582. 

 

This sort of drop-off in production was previously reserved for Juan Rincon.  So what are the factors behind the 29 year old's decline? 

 

Matt Guerrier is essentially a three-pitch pitcher, the first of which is the most common among relievers' arsenals, the fastball.   

 

Fastball	MPH	Usage	Zone	WHIFF	Batted Ball Outs %
2007	92.1	60.8%	63.1%	.185	66.1%
2008	92.4	67.%	42.8%	.048	67.5%

His fastball ranges from 90-94 but has averaged 92 the past two seasons. Though not predominantly an out-pitch, Guerrier's 2007 WHIFF of .185 was fairly decent by the fastball standards among relievers.  (For those unfamiliar with this metric, WHIFF average is the measurement of swing-and-misses on a particular pitch.  In this instance, the data is extracted from Josh Kalk's Pitch f/x database.)  What stands out in this comparison of his past two seasons, is the zone presences and his WHIFF effectiveness.  In 2007, Guerrier located the pitch within the zone 63% of the time, establishing an early strike.  One year later, Guerrier struggled to find the zone with his fastball in fewer than half of the times he threw it (42.8%).  It is no small wonder that in turn his WHIFF decreased to .048 and his walk rate spiked from 5.9% in 2007 to 10.7% in 2008.

   

Curveball	MPH	Usage	Zone	WHIFF	Batted Ball Outs %
2007	80.0	17.4%	51.4%	.348	60.0%
2008	80.6	10.1%	57.7%	.167	71.4%

 

Outside of his fastball, Guerrier implements a tight 12-to-6 curveball that is spun at a significantly slower rate, giving him an good off-speed breaking ball.  Averaging around a 12-mph difference in his two most used pitches, his curveball in 2007 was a very effective out-pitch, reflected in his .348 WHIFF rate.  This past season, Guerrier's use of his curveball was curtailed - most likely in response to being unable to find the strike zone with the fastball to properly set up the pitch - and with it his ability to induce misses dropped to .167.  That fact aside, the curveball was equally effective in that he was able to retire 71% of batters that put the pitch into play - a large boost from 2007. 

 

Slider	MPH	Usage	Zone	WHIFF	Batted Ball Outs %
2007	86.3	21.7%	67.8%	.364	60.0%
2008	86.6	20.9%	69.0%	.423	71.7%

 

To those that watch the Twins telecasts on FSN North, you would recall how much emphasis is placed on Guerrier's curveball.  Frequently overlooked by analysts, however, is the fact that Matt Guerrier's best pitch is his slider.  With a .423 WHIFF, his slider has one of the highest WHIFFs among the Twins' staff.  What makes this pitch exceedingly better is that he saves his deployment of the pitch for his right-handed counterparts.  The down-and-away spin action obtained numerous empty swings. 

For Guerrier to improve in 2009 he will have to refine the command of his fastball.  Being able to locate the fastball for a strike will do two things, (1) it will increase the amount of chases in Guerrier’s curveball from both sides of the plate and (2) it will cut down the number of total pitches leading to a more productive second-half. The success of his curveball, his secondary pitch against lefties, is directly correlated with his ability to throw the fastball for a strike consistently.  According to billjamesonline.net, in 2008 Guerrier relied on his fastball against the lefties (62% usage) and had a lowly 16-to-15 K-to-BB ratio.  Limited to two pitches against his left-handed counterparts, those opponents were able to coax walks and sit on hanging curveballs without having to answer to a 93-mph fastball cutting the plate in half at the knees. 

 

Another often cited explanation for Guerrier’s late season breakdown is that he has had a burdening workload in the past several years.  Though his appearances have risen steadily over the past four seasons, his increase has actually been a byproduct of his own doing.  In 2005 Guerrier faced 306 batters and used 1,094 pitches (3.58 per PA).  In 2006 Guerrier’s appearances decreased from 43 to 39 while his total batters faced actually decreased to 300 but used roughly the same amount of pitches (1,071 or 3.57 per PA).  With a depleted bullpen, Guerrier was asked to step up his use from 39 to 73 in 2007 but ultimately faced just 51 more batters -- a 17% increase to his prior workload –- and Guerrier needed approximately 3.69 pitches each plate appearance and threw 1,296 total.  This past season Guerrier needed a whopping 1,320 pitches against a pool of 344 leading to a grossly inefficient 3.83 pitches per plate appearances during his 76 outings.  By establishing his fastball consistently Guerrier would shave several pitches off each plate appearance and whittle down the total amount leading to late season success. 

Over The Baggy's Bill Smith Report Card - 2008

lam1.) Granted FA to Torii Hunter - 10/29/07

 

To Angels	WSAB Lost	WSAB Gained
Torii Hunter	11
To Twins
Carlos Gutierrez		?
Shooter Hunt		?

 

Net WSAB: -11.

Nuts-n-Bolts: The decision to not pursue Torii Hunter down the free agent rabbit hole was a wise choice by Smith considering how stratospheric his market value increased in his walk year.  At 31 years old, Hunter had his second best season offensively (OPS+ 122) making him and his historically solid defense a desired commodity.  The day before Thanksgiving Arturo Moreno, owner of the Los Angeles Angels, signed Hunter to a five-year, $90 million dollar contract.  Because of his accelerated age, Hunter projects to decline over the course of the next few seasons (both Bill James and Marcels projections assume that he will have a drop in OBP and lose some power in 2009).  What's more is that even the defense that had made him so valuable is inevitably going to drop to levels that will force him to a corner outfield or designated hitter role, therefore by year four or even possibly year three of his contract Hunter will be supplying less than league average production at a substantial cost to the Angels. 

    

 

Grade: B.  Letting Hunter walk was the only option.  His contractual demands far exceed his projected contributions (year one looks decent in retrospect but the subsquent years will not look as favorable).  Since Hunter was labeled a Type A free agent the Twins were granted two compensatory draft picks.  With these, the team selected college pitchers Carlos Gutierrez and Shooter Hunt.  Gutierrez, a University of Miami alum, is already a survivor of Tommy John surgery so the Twins will probably use the kid's gloves with his development.  He spent 2008 in A+ Fort Myers where he worked from out of the bullpen, working 25 innings with a 2.71 K/BB.  A three-pitch pitchers, the Twins are going to use Gutierrez as a starter in 2009.  Hunt, a Tulane University alum, was initially sent to Elizabethton (rk) where he dominated much younger competition.  A shift to the more age appropriate Midwest League brought Hunt's numbers to reality.  While with Beloit, Hunt threw 31 innings as a starter and saw his control dissipate as he issued 27 walks. The only question is whether the two compensation picks pan out.

 

2.) Granted FA to Carlos Silva - 10/29/07

   

To Twins	WSAB Lost	WSAB Gained
Carlos Silva	-6

Net WSAB: 6.

Nuts-n-Bolts: Carlos Silva is as utilitarian of a pitcher as they come by.  In his Twins career, he posted a 47-45 record and flirted with 200 innings each of the four seasons in Minnesota.  He didn't walk anybody nor did he strikeout that many either.  This power sinker pitcher threw to contact and blossomed from the usually solid defense placed behind him and when he doesn't have it, his numbers suffer.  His year with his highest ERA, 5.94, was the same year Tony Batista and Juan Castro roamed the left side of the infield. 

    As his contract was about to expire after the 2007 season, Bill Smith stood pat as Silva was valued as one of the top free agent pitchers on the market.  To his agent's credit, Silva was able to milk four-years, $48 million out of Seattle while the Twins waved bu-bye. 

 

Grade: A.  Silva's first season in Seattle was disastrous.  The Chief went 4-15 with a 6.46 ERA in 28 starts but is better than those numbers show considering behind him was a defense with the second lowest DER in the American League (.679).  Silva will most likely rebound in 2009 to produce decent numbers but no resigning him saved the Twins $48 million for labor that was available internally.  The Twins slotted Nick Blackburn into Silva's former spot in the rotation and was a very similar pitcher to Silva in that he threw to contact and was stingy with the walks.   Blackburn, however, gave the Twins 5 WSAB while finishing 11-11 with a league-average ERA of 4.05 thanks to a sturdy defense (.688 DER). 

 

3.) Craig Monroe for a Player To Be Named Later - 11/13/07

   

To Cubs	WSAB Lost	WSAB Gained
PTBNL	?
To Twins
Craig Monroe		1

 

Net WSAB: 1.

 

Nuts-n-Bolts: Recognizing the fact that a) Torii Hunter was not going to be with the team in 2008 and b) the team posted low numbers against left-handed pitching in 2007, Smith went to work attempting to find an inexpensive right-handed replacement.  The search ended with the Twins trading a Player To Be Named Later to the Cubs for Craig Monroe in November and on December 11th, the Twins signed Monroe to a one-year, $3.82 million contract with performance bonuses totaling $180,000.  The expectation was that Monroe would give the Twins a potent bat against lefties as a designated hitter and fourth outfielder. 

    Monroe - who showed a moderate level of success against lefties split between the Tigers and the Cubs in 2007 hitting .271/.309/.496 in 140 plate appearances - had a fairly average career track record against lefties. 

 

Grade: C.  Assuming that at 31 years old Monroe was going to provide production at levels he never was capable of achieving in the first place was foolish but the drop off in production was amazing.  He finished 2008 hitting only .138/.219/.230 in 96 plate appearances against the wrong-handers.  Admittedly, Monroe slugged six home runs in just 76 at-bats (a HR every 7.8 at bats) and slugged .605 but, for the most part, stole at-bats and playing time from Jason Kubel. 

 

4.)  Garza-Bartlett-Morlan for Young-Harris-Pridie - 11/28/07

To Rays	WSAB Lost	WSAB Gained
Matt Garza	8
Jason Bartlett	4
Eduardo Morlan	?
To Twins
Delmon Young		2
Brendan Harris		2
Jason Pridie		?

Net WSAB: -8.

Nuts-n-Bolts: The Twins were looking to deal for a right-handed power bat that could supplant Torii Hunter in the lineup.  The Rays were looking for young pitching and a legitimate shortstop to shore up the infield.  With an initial deal of Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett and Juan Rincon the Rays were almost ready to part with Delmon Young, Brendan Harris and Jason Pridie - but it took the inclusion of Eduardo Morlan (a recent Brewers Rule 5 selection) to complete this deal. 

 

Grade: B-.  Yes, the trade may have ultimately cost the Twins the 2008 AL Central as they seemed to be one starting pitcher short, but Young has too much potential and some years to hone in on his plate approach to dismiss this as a lop-sided trade.  Yes, the Rays are the short-term victor but Smith probably positioned his team well to benefit from this exchange in years to come. 
 
5.) Signed FA Adam Everett - 12/13/07

   

To Twins	WSAB Lost	WSAB Gained
Adam Everett		1

Net WSAB: 1.

Nuts-n-Bolts: Losing their starting shortstop without any obvious internal candidates on hand, Smith turned to the open market.  Available were low-grade options in Cesar Izturis, Neifi Perez and Jerry Hairston as well as diminutive shortstops in Adam Everett and David Eckstein.  Valuing defense, the Twins targeted Everett, who was the highest rated shortstop according to the Fielding Bible +/- as recently as 2006, and signed him to a one-year, $2.4 million contract. 

 

Grade: C.  With a .248/.299/.357 career batting line, the Twins held no pretensions that they were acquiring an offense-oriented shortstop.  Various ailments, however, kept Everett out of the lineup and limited to 48 games all year.  In hindsight, the Cardinals signed Cesar Izturis for $50,000 more than Everett and he played in 135 games and was the fourth-best defensive shortstop (+14) and hit .263/.319/.309.

6.) Signed FA Mike Lamb - 12/14/07 

 

To Twins	WSAB Lost	WSAB Gained
Mike Lamb		0

Net WSAB: 0.

Nuts-n-Bolts: Like every offseason since losing Corey Koskie, the Twins were in the market for a third baseman.  In 2007, the combination of third basemen at the Metrodome hit a collective .236/.308/.323.  The Twins had an apparent interest in Lamb for years, drafting him in 1996, and finally signed the 31 year old to a two-year, $6.6 million hoping he could recreate his 2007's .289/.366/.453 batting line. 

 

Grade: D.  It is not just the lowly .231/.268/.312 batting line that was even worse than the output of the Twins third baseman in 2007, but rather it was the massive failure by the scouting department that overvalued Lamb and extended him the nearly $7 million dollar contract.  Admittedly it would be hard to predict a collapse of this magnitude, nevertheless, the Twins are still obligated to pay $2.6 in 2009 to Lamb. 

7.)  Santana for Gomez-Humber-Mulvey-Guerra - 2/2/08

To Mets	WSAB Lost	WSAB Gained
Johan Santana	16
To Twins
Carlos Gomez		1
Philip Humber		0
Kevin Mulvey		?
Deolis Guerra		?

Net WSAB: -15.

Nuts-n-Bolts:  After going 93-44 with a 3.22 ERA, 1,381 strikeouts, only one stint on the disabled list and two Cy Youngs adorning his mantle, it was evident that Johan Santana was due for a raise at the expiration of his current contract following the 2008 season.  The problem was was that Santana was expecting Barry Zito-type money (seven-years, $126 million).  When the Venezuelan spurned Smith's offering of four-years, $80 million, Smith began shopping him around to the teams that have that kind of money to burn - the New Yorks, Los Angeles and Boston.  

    The Red Sox and the Yankees showed interest but in the end their offers were more like calculated stalemate propositions of a Cold War, pushing it to the brink but hoping the other would back down as well.  Only the Mets presented a package that contained the prospects that could satisfy the Twins: A replacement for Hunter and three potentially useful pitchers.  The Mets then inked Santana to a record-setting contract of $137.5 million over six years, besting Zito's average annual value of $18 million by $4.9 million per season. 

 

Grade: B-.  The group acquired in return for Santana is good.  Gomez had a muddling year at the plate (.258/.296/.360) but excelled in the field (+32 center fielder, best in baseball).  Humber should contribute in 2009 in the bullpen.  Mulvey is interesting in that he threw 148 innings at AAA and posted a very good 121/48 K/BB ratio with a 3.77 ERA (well below the league average of 4.10).  The 19 year old Guerra's performance is concerning - in 130 innings at A+, he struck out 71 and also walked 71, posting an ERA of 5.47.  This is a solid bounty.  What drops this grade is the possibility of what 2008 would have been like had Santana played out his contract with the Twins. 

 

8.) Signed FA Livan Hernandez - 2/12/08

   

To Twins	WSAB Lost	WSAB Gained
Livan Hernandez		-1

Net WSAB: -1.

Nuts-n-Bolts: The Twins had lost three members of the starting rotation following the Santana trade leaving the five-man without any real established pitchers.  With Francisco Liriano not necessarily ready at Opening Day and unproven starters in Baker, Bonser, Blackburn, Slowey and Perkins, the Twins went fishing in the veteran well.  Hernandez, 33, while with the Diamondbacks in 2007 finished the year with an 11-11 and a 4.03 ERA and devoured over 200 innings.  Bill Smith signed him to a $5 million, one-year contract (with $2 million in incentives) to front the 2008 rotation.

 

Grade: C-.  At the time of the signing, I wrote "200+ innings is great, only if they are not laden with runs surrendered. As Hernandez’s 2007 home run total (34, 2^nd in the NL), earned runs (114, 4th) and hits allowed (247, 1^st) would suggest, he is a potential liability in the designated hitter American League."  At the conclusion of the 2008 season, Hernandez led all of baseball in hits allowed (257, 1st) and earned runs (121, 1st).  And he didn't even get to 200 innings.   

 

9.) Claimed Craig Breslow - 5/29/08

   

To Twins	WSAB Lost	WSAB Gained
Craig Breslow		2

Net WSAB: 2.

Nuts-n-Bolts: With a weak bullpen due to Pat Neshek's season ending injury, the Twins were desperate for, well, relief.  Breslow had been given just 8.3 innings with the Cleveland Indians in 2008 while allowing three runs.  The lefty had posted very good minor league numbers, throwing 357 innings over six season and striking out 383, so the Twins took a minimal risk in claiming Breslow off of the waivers.  

 

Grade: A-.  Breslow quickly became a integral component in the bullpen, pitching 38.2 innings and posting a 1.83 ERA.  Left-handed opponents hit just .183/.230/.232 in 88 plate appearances, helping alleviate the necessity to overuse Dennys Reyes.  In the month of September, Breslow was awesome, throwing nine innings and allowed just one inherited run to score out of 15.  This claim reaffirms the fact that the Twins staff is very knowledgeable when it comes to other team's organizational talent. 

 

10.) Traded for Eddie Guardado - 8/25/08

 

To Rangers	WSAB Lost	WSAB Gained
Mark Hamburger	?
To Twins
Eddie Guardado		-1

 

Net WSAB: -1.

Nuts-n-Bolts: When the trade deadline past in July without any transactions for relief support and a bullpen that held a 5.21 ERA for the month, the Twins seemed to paint themselves into a corner. Chad Bradford and Latroy Hawkins slipped through their fingers but the 37 year old Eddie Guardado was having a surprisingly good season for the Rangers.  Texas was 63-68, looking upwards of 17 games to the division leading Angels, and acted like any bankrupt company trying to liquidate any non-useful parts and Eddie Guardado qualified as such.  Guardado had increased in value by throwing in over 55 games in relief, posting a 3.65 ERA and limiting opponents to a .220/.286/.358 batting line.  The Twins, familiar with Everyday Eddie, sent a 21 year old pitcher, Mark Hamburger, who had thrown 36.2 innings in the Appalachian League while striking out 40 and walking just 13. 

 

Grade: D-.  Guardado provided the Twins with seven lackluster innings, allowing six runs and an opponent batting line of .387/.424/.581 in that span.  The grade is based on the fact that several other viable options were overlooked (Bradford, Hawkins, Mijares) before settling on Guardado. In the grand scheme of things, the move was a minimal risk as Hamburger will not result in John Smoltz down the road. 

 

 

Final Net WSAB: -20

 

Overall Grade: C+.  Smith continued what has been protocol set by Terry Ryan.  Once again, Smith and his team signed free agents that didn't perform, including Hernandez, Everett and Lamb.  Add those names to the long list created by Ryan.  The front office has been great at developing internal talent and harvesting talent from other teams but they can never seem to hit on the free agents that produce.  The latter two ideas will ensure that the Twins remain a competitive ballclub.  It is the former, signing one or two free agents that contribute immensely, that helps procure championships.