Fastball |
MPH |
Usage |
Zone |
WHIFF |
Batted Ball Outs % |
2007 |
92.1 |
60.8% |
63.1% |
.185 |
66.1% |
2008 |
92.4 |
67.% |
42.8% |
.048 |
67.5% |
His fastball ranges from 90-94 but has averaged 92 the past two seasons. Though not predominantly an out-pitch, Guerrier's 2007 WHIFF of .185 was fairly decent by the fastball standards among relievers. (For those unfamiliar with this metric, WHIFF average is the measurement of swing-and-misses on a particular pitch. In this instance, the data is extracted from Josh Kalk's Pitch f/x database.) What stands out in this comparison of his past two seasons, is the zone presences and his WHIFF effectiveness. In 2007, Guerrier located the pitch within the zone 63% of the time, establishing an early strike. One year later, Guerrier struggled to find the zone with his fastball in fewer than half of the times he threw it (42.8%). It is no small wonder that in turn his WHIFF decreased to .048 and his walk rate spiked from 5.9% in 2007 to 10.7% in 2008.
Curveball |
MPH |
Usage |
Zone |
WHIFF |
Batted Ball Outs % |
2007 |
80.0 |
17.4% |
51.4% |
.348 |
60.0% |
2008 |
80.6 |
10.1% |
57.7% |
.167 |
71.4% |
Slider |
MPH |
Usage |
Zone |
WHIFF |
Batted Ball Outs % |
2007 |
86.3 |
21.7% |
67.8% |
.364 |
60.0% |
2008 |
86.6 |
20.9% |
69.0% |
.423 |
71.7% |
For Guerrier to improve in 2009 he will have to refine the command of his fastball. Being able to locate the fastball for a strike will do two things, (1) it will increase the amount of chases in Guerrier’s curveball from both sides of the plate and (2) it will cut down the number of total pitches leading to a more productive second-half. The success of his curveball, his secondary pitch against lefties, is directly correlated with his ability to throw the fastball for a strike consistently. According to billjamesonline.net, in 2008 Guerrier relied on his fastball against the lefties (62% usage) and had a lowly 16-to-15 K-to-BB ratio. Limited to two pitches against his left-handed counterparts, those opponents were able to coax walks and sit on hanging curveballs without having to answer to a 93-mph fastball cutting the plate in half at the knees.
Another often cited explanation for Guerrier’s late season breakdown is that he has had a burdening workload in the past several years. Though his appearances have risen steadily over the past four seasons, his increase has actually been a byproduct of his own doing. In 2005 Guerrier faced 306 batters and used 1,094 pitches (3.58 per PA). In 2006 Guerrier’s appearances decreased from 43 to 39 while his total batters faced actually decreased to 300 but used roughly the same amount of pitches (1,071 or 3.57 per PA). With a depleted bullpen, Guerrier was asked to step up his use from 39 to 73 in 2007 but ultimately faced just 51 more batters -- a 17% increase to his prior workload –- and Guerrier needed approximately 3.69 pitches each plate appearance and threw 1,296 total. This past season Guerrier needed a whopping 1,320 pitches against a pool of 344 leading to a grossly inefficient 3.83 pitches per plate appearances during his 76 outings. By establishing his fastball consistently Guerrier would shave several pitches off each plate appearance and whittle down the total amount leading to late season success.
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