AL Central Update-Clemens Testimony Reaction Edition (2.15.08)

This should be a post regarding the reporting of pitchers and catchers, which usually is a cause for jubilation and typically makes me think of the up-tempo Josh Ritter song "Snow is Gone". Here in Minnesota, seeing the words "pitchers and catcher report" in print conjures up imaginary odors such as mowed grass and the scent one gets from kicking up infield dirt, even if the exterior thermometer reads well below zero. Here in the prairie land though, we still have a half-dozen snow falls left until spring finally commences but such a beautiful announcement reminds us that there is land on the horizon.

Normally at this time of year I am satisfied debating such issues as the recent Hernandez signing, if the Twins received enough prospective talent for Johan, or whether the Twins participated in the 4th outfielder market too soon when they acquired Craig Monroe. These arguments seemed to have conclusions. We will find out at the end of the 2008 season whether the Twins were justified adding Livan. We will have any answer in three years whether the bounty that was reaped for Santana was enough. We will know if $3.8 million was squandered on Monroe. These have answers.

Like the rest of America the last two days, I have been fixated on the Roger Clemens ordeal. Not on Clemens specifically, but the way the whole witch-hunt has degraded to what is essentially neo-McCarthyism. Like Communism and "the Red Scare", I believe that what really frightens congress (politicians, et al) is that this idea of injecting HGH could pour over the boundaries of our sacred fields into the American people: People idolize these players; People hate aging; These players have temporarily defied aging; Ergo, people might start gravitating towards human growth hormones or stem cells that might be able to provide youthful vigor prolonging the inevitable end. Don't forget that the government is still scared of stem cells (some don't even like the research). This has become bigger than the game itself. Hell, maybe an issue that will define a generation.

If growth hormones added longevity to a career without being a physical detriment, how is that a bad thing? Because everybody can't afford it? Because Clemens, et al should have conceded to aging and accepted the fact that they would not have been still playing if they couldn't do so without HGH? Should Debbie Clemens have simply allowed SI to touch up the photos without the aid of HGH?

I don't have an answer. I waffle on both sides. Half my foot is in the "let them all do everything" camp and the other believes in mandatory testing in the on-deck circle. Maybe when I am 65 and still playing softball pain-free I will think back on the HGH forefathers that made it possible for me to play on the diamond as a retiree the same as I would when I was 35 and mired in work. Maybe when my kids starts dabbling in steroids at 15 I'll be cursing the players whose cards I once idolized for teaching my young such a dishonest way to win. Who knows. Mentally, I want to return to considering whether Nick Swisher or Alexi Ramirez is a suitable centerfielder in US Cellular or if the Twins really do have a true lead-off hitter. These aren't heavy. But I can't just yet. Here are some of the more thought provoking columns in the afterglow of the testimony of Roger Clemens:

• The Strib's Pat Ruesse lambasted Clemens ability to so easily throw his wife under the bus. In efforts to discredit his character, Ruesse quotes former Boston Globe scribe Mike Barnacle describing Clemens as:

"If Clemens had not once been able to consistently throw a baseball 95 miles per hour past men with bats in their hands, he would be wearing bib overalls and sitting on a milk crate at the open end of a trailer somewhere, brushing his tooth, while shooing away flies from his head," Barnicle wrote. "The man is a complete dope."

• Rick Morrissey at the Chicago Tribune discusses that many celebrated what the ideal of Clemens is (an old man that won multiple Cy Youngs) but cringes at the idea of his 39-year-old wife. He questions why the bulging six-pack was the way she wanted to look:

But back to the pursuit of perfection. Allegations of HGH use aside, what told Debbie Clemens that the look she achieved was worth striving for?

What tells women that beauty is breast augmentation or nose jobs or face lifts? Or even that beauty can be found in an incredibly intense workout regimen and a strict lifestyle?

I don't find most female bodybuilders to be particularly attractive.

Both they and overly driven athletes have the same glassy eyed, single-minded look to them. It's neither beautiful nor excellent.

In our world, the line is getting very, very blurred between natural and unnatural.

In the pursuit of perfection, women with artificial breasts and athletes with artificially large biceps sometimes don't seem so different.

• The Kansas City Star's Joe Posnanski in his personal blog gives his thoughts on the televised hearings. Including this on the idea of mistaking it for a B-12 shots:

I do want you to pause for a moment here and think about how stupid this B12 thing is for a moment. Let’s assume for a moment that Roger Clemens is weary of needles, a reasonably fair assumption since it appears he kept taking shots in the buttocks region, which is where needles-haters take shots. I know where he’s coming from. I hate shots. I am nervous about shots, I don’t like them, I don’t like when my daughters have to get them, I don’t like seeing them on TV. Anyone who knows me and several people who don’t know me will tell you: I hate shots.

OK, let me tell you what it means to hate shots: There’s is no way, no chance, no possibility that I would take a voluntary B12 shot unless there was a lot of money involved. No chance. A vitamin shot that MIGHT help me in some vague way or MIGHT NOT help me at all? Are you serious? Why in the hell would I do that? I don’t even believe in flu shots. I wouldn’t take a B12 shot even if recommended by a doctor (which, as Rep. Bruce Braley, a Democrat from Iowa righlyt pointed out, a doctor would not recommend unless I become a vegan or have to deal with Alzheimer’s or start dealing with mental health issues which is growing more and more likely by the day). And, while I love my mother very dearly, there’s is no way I would start taking B12 shots because she decided they’re good for met. Hating shots means hating shots all the time; you only take a shot when it’s ABSOLUTELY necessary and you really try to avoid them then too.

So based on the fear of shots alone I’m calling total bullcrap on the whole B12 shot thing.

• Detroit Free Press's Mitch Albom approaches the issues straightforward: who is lying because both can't be telling truth.

I think he [Clemens] is. I think if Clemens is guilty, he is treating it like an injury the other team can't know about. Just get out there, look tough and pitch your butt off. He may figure nobody will believe a creep like McNamee, and Pettitte will never turn hard on him, he can just say Andy "misremembered" their conversations. In other words, in pitching terms, he can retire the side.

A big risk? You bet. But Clemens is nothing if not self-assured.

Meanwhile, what's the big picture here? What changes if Clemens is proven a liar? We already have plenty of big fish admitting steroids. One more changes nothing. If he did it, he did it years ago, when there was no testing.

• Slate's Josh Levin decided that this is a split-party issue with Republicans siding with Clemens ('Perhaps that shouldn't be surprising, considering that the pitcher is a close friend of George H.W. Bush, "even building a horseshoe pit at his home for the former president," according to a 2006 USA Today article.') and the Democratic Representatives siding with trainer Brian McNamee ('Foxx, Burton, Shays, and Darrell Issa, R-Calif., attacked McNamee's credibility relentlessly, while their colleagues across the aisle—most notably committee Chairman Henry Waxman, Massachusetts' Stephen Lynch, and Maryland's Elijah Cummings—laid off McNamee and grilled Clemens.').

• Finally, even though I am sick of Boston's reign as the best sports town in America and Bill Simmons as their official scribe, I do like his ESPN The Magazine article written at the end of January describing a game in 1996 where the fatter version of Clemens struck out 20.

The stunning turn of events didn't leave me as satisfied as I thought it would. Whenever people write about the Steroids Era, they always focus on numbers. After all, the combination of numbers and history makes baseball unique. We crunch them, compare them, memorize them, and eventually they become living, breathing entities. The Steroids Era has made it impossible to say which numbers are genuine, so fans worry that we can't compare generations anymore. I'd argue that every generation has mitigating factors that affect the numbers, and in time we'll learn how to weigh those factors from the past 15 years. We just need time.

Best and Worst Acquisitions of 2007 (Poundfoolish Edition)

What sets the Twins apart from most franchises is that they avoid sinking both large sums of money and years at free agents. Instead they rely on internal development (Mauer, Cuddyer, Kubel, Morneau), well-timed trades (Young, Castillo, Stewart) and the occasional place-holder one-year contract (Rogers, Hernandez) to bridge them from season to season. Conversely this fiscal restraint can prove detrimental to a fan base when star free agents are allowed to walk or demand trades. The blowback usually comes from some fans who request the easily identifiable superstars and local heroes to be on the field.

Spending large amounts of both years and dollars on Torii Hunter and Johan Santana, obviously two players that would have aided in winning in 2008 and 2009, would have been beneficial in the immediate future however towards the later years of the contract, the Twins could burdened by injuries, aging and overall decline in performance. As people like to point out, there is yet to be a pitcher that has signed a $100 million dollar contract that a team has not regretted in the end.

The Twins have (usually) had the foresight to have candidates ready when another exits (exception: centerfield). In cases where there are no viable candidates internally, general manager seek out potential suitors on the free agent market which grows increasingly more expensive as the desired commodity is limited. Had they decided to find Hunter's replacement on the free agent market, they could have ended up paying anywhere from $7 million (Cameron) to $12 million (Rowand) to $18.1 million (Jones) as season -- all grossly inflated rates.

Here are some of the other acquisitons made prior to 2007 that we as a Twins collective can be glad we did not invest in:

Adam Kennedy | 2B | St. Louis | -5 WSAB | $2.5 million

How Acquired: Signed three-year, $10 million dollar deal

In the first year of a three-year contract returning to the team that drafted him as the 20th overall pick in 1997, Tony LaRussa and the St. Louis Cardinals were not too pleased with his prodigal return. Long been known for his glove at second (he has a career 4.54 range factor), Kennedy struggled to find himself in his new Midwestern home. In April and May he held a batting average of .229. His season bottomed out in June where he hit .172/.238/.172 in 64 plate appearances. He somewhat rebounded prior to a season-ending knee injury at .219/.282/.290, well below his career average of .275/.329/.390.

Kennedy is due $3.5 million in 2008 and $4 million in 2009. Which if improvement doesn't happen rapidly, the Cardinals organization could be choking on a $7.5 million dollars. Kennedy skipped the Cardinals Winter Warm-Up prompting LaRussa to comment, "This year, I just don’t think we have that margin (to let a player play out of a funk). Adam is a key guy in that mix. So I expect him to return to his winning player form. But he needs to make sure he dots all the I’s, and not coming (this weekend)
is I hope his first and only mistake."

Danys Baez | RHP-R | Baltimore | -2 WSAB | $5.5 million

How Acquired: Signed a three-year, $19 million dollar deal November 27th, 2006.

After the 2006 season concluded, Baltimore's brain trust determined that the team's bullpen needed the most attention. The team when out and signed Danys Baez, Corey Bradford and Jamie Walker to three-year deals worth a combined $41.5 million. Instead of alleviating an already dreadful bullpen, the three posted a franchise worst 5.71 era. Baez exacerbated the problem: In 53 appearances he went 0-6 and accumulated a 6.44 era with 3 saves.

Blessed mercifully by an injury that would require Tommy John surgery on September 15th, 2007, Baez will miss the entirety of his second year under the contract.

Adam Eaton | RHP-S | Philadelphia | -2 WSAB | $7.2 million

How Acquired: Signed a three-year, $24.5 million dollar deal (with mutual 4th year option at $9 million) on November 30th, 2007.

Eaton came off a season with Texas where injuries and rehabilitation limited his innings to just 65. His 7-4 record with a 5.12 era was good enough though for the pitching-hungry Phillies who signed him during the off-season to a potential $33.5 million dollar contract. Able to start 30 times for the first time since 2004 then with the Padres, Eaton was hit hard and never really acclimated to his new team. He finished with a 10-10 record in 30 starts but had a terrible 6.29 era (113 earned run, 3rd worst in the NL) and gave up 30 home runs (4th worst). All this in only 160 innings of work.

In 2008, the Phillies are still committed to him but have said that he will have to battle out for the fifth spot in the rotation against JD Durbin and Mr. Anna Benson (who recently signed a minor league deal).

Rich Aurilia | INF | San Francisco | -2 WSAB | $3.5 million

How Acquired: Signed a two-year, $8 million dollar contract on December 4th, 2006.

This is one of those instances where as a general manager you simply get robbed. Aurilia came back to San Francisco from Cincinnati where he finished a very successful season hitting .300/.349/.518 with 23 home runs. Then again, had the Giants front office performed their due diligence they may have realized that the Great American Ballpark was a much better hitting environment than At&T Park. But no one could have anticipated the steep decline in 2007 where Aurilia hit .240/.304/.368 with 5 home runs in 329 at-bats. Of course Aurilia's 2006 season was significantly out of the norm from his previous production and he was also approaching his mid-30's. Two facets that might have been consider prior to giving a two-year contract to.

One appealling aspect of Aurilia's 2006 campaign was that he absolutely mashed left-handed pitching in 2006 hitting .347/.406/.680 with 11 home runs in only 165 plate appearances. This alone would be reason enough to enlist a batter. Only in 2007, Aurilia's abilities greatly plateaued at 35 years old. Instead of hitting lefties as he did with Cincinnati, he slumped hitting .240/.265/.411.

Jason Schmidt | RHP-S | Los Angeles Dodgers | -1 WSAB | $12.5 million

How Acquired: Signed a three-year, $46 million dollar contract on December 8th, 2006.

On November 3rd, 2006 Sean McAdams wrote a piece of precautionary prophecy, quoting one unidentified GM as saying "We could be looking at some regrettable deals in a couple of years." A month later, the Dodgers sank $46 million and three-years into Jason Schmidt. Without a doubt, along with Barry Zito, Schmidt was the premium arm on the market last offseason. From 2001to 2006, Schmidt compiled an 84-47 record (a .641 wpct) coupled with a 3.44 era while with the Pirates and Giants. When considered during the off-season, Schmidt seemed like a low-risk signing.

Around spring training there were tell-tale signing of lingering arm problems, such as a decrease in velocity that Schmidt tried to brush off: "I know what it takes in Spring Training and I don't think about velocity now," said Schmidt, who has two more exhibition starts before he takes the ball in Game 3 of the regular season in Milwaukee. "It's not only about being ready for April 1 but for June and July and August and throughout an entire season. I feel fine."

After 3 starts Schmidt proved to be not fine. His shoulder needed surgery (again). This time there is concern that he will not be able to recover considering his accelerated age of 35: "The Tommy John success rate is 82-85 percent for returning to the previous level, while the success rate for labral tears is about 70-75 percent," said Stan Conte, Dodgers trainer and medical director. "The qualifier is that the studies only focus on labral tears and a lot of pitchers have a combination of injuries."

Nevertheless, the Dodgers are on the hook to pay $34.5 million dollars over the course of the next two seasons, with or without his services.

Juan Pierre | OF | Los Angeles Dodgers | -1 WSAB | $7.5 million

How Acquired: Signed a five-year, $44 million dollar contract November 22nd, 2006.

Next to pitchers, centerfielders seem to be the next big free agent cash crop. Seth Mnookin wrote an article for Slate questioning the practices of the general managers. Essentially, general managers preach frugality and quality is driving their decision yet their actions say something completely different. Mnookin cites the Dodgers signing of Pierre as such evidence.

Pierre is a one-tool hitter: He hits singles. No more, no less. In 2006 he led the National League with 156. For an encore, he led the league with 164 (of 196 total hits) in 2007. He doesn't walk (4.6% bb%), but he also doesn't strike out either (5.1% k%). And he certainly doesn't have any power (.060). He would be the ideal lead-off candidate only if his .331 on-base percentage wasn't the second-lowest among Dodgers starters. It is a shame that the Dodgers vastly overpaid for an eight-hitter.

Jay Payton | OF | Baltimore | -1 WSAB | $4.5 million

How Acquired: Signed a two-year, $9.5 million dollar contract December 11th, 2006.

As you might have guessed by now, the Baltimore Orioles are not the exactly wizards of the free agent market. The Baez contract - in addition to his bullpen compatriots - scream ill-advised. Even as they attempt to make a somewhat frugal maneuver, it backfires in their beaks. Jay Payton had a blue-collar season for the Oakland A's in 2006. In 557 at-bats, Payton hit .296/.325/.418 with 10 home runs. He shows little patience (3.7% bb%) but he doesn't strikeout a lot either (8.9%). That said, Payton lives and dies by the type of contact he makes and where the ball lands on the field. In 2006 he held an average of .313 on balls put in play. His high line drive rate (22%) assisted in achieving a near .300 batting average.

The Orioles probably saw his nifty batting line and figured that since that was close to his career of .281/.325/.432, he must be able to replicate that. Unfortunately between his decline on line drives (15%) and the placement on the field (.271 babip), Payton and the Orioles saw his hitting slip to .256/.292/.376. Payton could rebound, but it is still a gamble of a contract rather than a sure thing. Payton told his former hometown paper that he'd like to play until he is 40. It is a game of chance with Payton.

Twins sign Innings Eater.

About fifteen years ago, I owned a book written by Jay Leno playing off of his various “Headlines” shtick sent in by loyal fans nationwide. There would be a headline (such as “Trees Break Wind”) from a paper sent in from Bismarck, North Dakota, Scottsbluff, Nebraska or what have you followed by a witty comment (“I thought that forest smelt funny”). One in particular was from a Muesli* cereal ad. The ad print read “Muesli: if you are not satisfied, we’ll send you another box, for free!” Leno’s commentary under the headline image was something like “Dear Muesli, your cereal tasted terrible. Thank you for sending me more.”

What does Livan Hernandez have to do with cereal and late night comedy bit made popular in the early 1990s?

The Twins front office - like the good people at the Muesli Global Corp. - is hedging their bets that more equals better. They are not necessary analyzing the quality but rather the quantity - a mistake comparable to thinking that subduing this fire requires a tad more gas.

Hernandez claims he will be 33 years old in 2008 (then again, he also told Cuban officials that he would be right back). Admittedly, the market for established starters who have thrown 150-plus innings in 2007 is stretched thin (Fogg, Benson, Lohse) and Carlos Silva set the bar by signing to his 4-year, $48-million dollar contract. If he is indeed 33 years old, $5-million for the one season (and an addition $2-million if qualifies for bonuses) would seem like a minimal risk. Supporters of this signing will argue that signing Hernandez will give the Twins pitchers veteran leadership (a quality that is not definable statistically), alleviate usage of the bullpen and provide one more season of minor league development for the pitching prospects. Most indications say that the Twins needed some "experience".

Last season, unable to leave the keys to the mound to a group of talented prospects, the Twins signed Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson to round out the rotation with the expectation that they would be digesting innings in the majors while Matt Garza, Kevin Slowey and Scott Baker put the finishing touches on in the minors. As the year played out, Ortiz and Ponson combined for 108.2 innings and were eventually displaced leaving 292.4 innings to Garza, Slowey and Baker. Not only did they pitch more, the young guns threw better innings. The former veterans had a 6.73 era; the later prospects had an era of 4.21.

Instead of relying on your own talent the Twins squandered 108 innings and missed the opportunity have Garza, Slowey and Baker in the rotation everything 5^th day. Baker is on his way to being declared the staff “ace” in 2008 (that is, if Liriano doesn't rebound). Garza’s showcasing eventually landed the Twins Delmon Young this offseason. Slowey could find himself as the 4^th or 5^th starter.

What is startling is the comparison between Ortiz’s 2006 season with Washington and Hernandez’s 2007 season with Arizona. Ortiz finished with 190 innings and an 11-16 record with a 5.57 era in the NL East, Hernandez threw 204 innings with an 11-11 record and a 4.93 era. Peripherally, their numbers are even more closely related:

	Inn.	BB%	K%	GB%	BABIP	HR/AIR	FIP	RA/9
L. Hernandez (2007)	204.1	8.7%	9.9%	40%	.314	8%	5.71	5.11
R. Ortiz (2006)	190.1	7.3%	11.9%	44%	.316	8%	5.39	5.99

200+ innings is great, only if they are not laden with runs surrendered. As Hernandez’s 2007 home run total (34, 2^nd in the NL), earned runs (114, 4th) and hits allowed (247, 1^st) would suggest, he is a potential liability in the designated hitter American League. The Twins should have no obligation to consider buying, considering the talent available in-house candidates, or at least judging by the 2008 ZiPs standards:

Zips	Innings	Era
L. Hernandez	193.0	5.55
F. Liriano	166.0	3.42
S. Baker	186.0	4.50
B. Bonser	179.0	4.98
K. Slowey	181.0	3.96
N. Blackburn	150.0	4.86
B. Duensing	167.0	5.23

Last season, Ortiz and Ponson blocked Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey, two young arms that provided the team with quality innings last season and will potentially be integral components of the rotation. Clearly tapping Hernandez is yet another message that the front office is once again buttressing the 2008 rotation, unable to commit to the young organizational talent. The Twins should learn their own lesson from 2007: let the youngster eat the innings.

*The cereal brand might not correct, but it was some sort of high-fiber, non-sugary stuff. Apologies to the Muesli people.

Best and Worst Acquisitions of 2007 (Frugality Free Agent/Trade Division)

One thing the Twins do a good job on is identifying minor league talent in the lower levels that blossom into useful parts (Liriano, Barlett, Casilla, Bonser, etc). This has been a tool that has kept the budget low. However, the Twins have been as bad as anybody when it comes to finding inexpensive existing talent. In recent memory, the Twins have tried Ramon Ortiz, Sidney Ponson, Rondell White, Jeff Cirillo, Tony Batista, Ruben Sierra, Phil Nevin, Brett Boone, and Jose Offerman.

The only acquisition that I can think of that provided consistent production all season was Kenny Rogers (who happened to be a last second signing during the 2003 spring training). Maybe it was that the Twins didn't have time to think or didn't have any other options, whatever the case might have been, this was a happy accident. It seems that premeditation into the free agent market was not Terry Ryan's strong suit. Naturally, most of the guys listed below are players that were also happy accidents. Then again, most also had previous track records that indicated there was a history of success at various levels.

I will withhold judgement on the Bill Smith seeing as that Adam Everett and Mike Lamb have yet to play an inning in the Twins uniform, but the recent chatter revolving around signing another "veteran arm" has me thinking "Meet the new boss; same as the old boss".

Carlos Pena | 1B | Tampa Bay | 19 WSAB | $800,000

How Acquired: Signed a minor league contract with a spring training invite February 1st, 2007.

Once viewed as the best prospect in both the Rangers and A's organizations, Pena (along with Jeremy Bonderman and Franklyn German) was shipped to Detroit in the three-way trade with New York and Oakland. Given the opportunity in Motown to play first base everyday, Pena showed great power in a vast Comerica ballpark but seemed over-matched by major league pitching. His walk rate had decreased from the minors. He fell out of favor in Detroit. After being released by the Tigers in March 2006, the Yankees picked him up in April and stuck him in the minors. Without seeing the Big Ballpark in the Bronx, Pena was dropped by New York August 16th, 2006 and was picked up by Boston the very next day. Given only 37 plate appearances with Boston, he was granted his free agency at the end of the season.

He started the 2007 season as a non-roster invitation to Devil Rays spring training and finished as the American League's Comeback Player of the Year. While hitting line drives in 21% of balls in play, he displayed the power that was always there with 46 home runs (second only to Alex Rodriguez), magnified by a .345 isolated slugging average. Pena's home run every 10.2 at-bats was the best in the American League. To show that he was not just a freeswinger, Pena walked in 18.0% of his plate appearances too. Pena's .282/.411/.627 batting line was one of the best in the American League and his 1.038 OPS was 5th best in the league as well. Of course any GM can retrospectively ask themselves why they did not take a flyer out on him, proving once again that minor league numbers do predict major league ability in various ways. His monster year was rewarded with a 3 year/$24.1 million dollar contract in the off-season.

Jack Cust | DH-OF | Oakland | 12 WSAB | $380,000

How Acquired: Traded from San Diego May 8th, 2007.

Almost destined to be an asterisks in the baseball history as an "AAAA" player, Cust was rescued from Crash Davis status by Billy Beane and the Oakland A's in May 2007 at the cost of A Player to Be Named Later from San Diego. His minor league track record show that Cust contained the qualities that Beane and the A's front office lusted over: patience and power. The same qualities that could have benefited the Twins as well. Inserted immediately as a designated hitter and outfielder, the small gamble paid dividends.

Cust finished with 26 home runs (.248 isop) and a .256/.408/.504 batting line, not bad for someone toiling in the International and Pacific Coast Leagues. He led the American League in strikeouts with 164 (a 32.2% k%) but offset this by being 2nd in walks with 105 (21.0% bb%). The feelgoodery surrounding his story is somewhat tainted by the PED allegations contain in the Mitchell Report, those of which Cust vehemently denies (like everyone else still with a career to worry about).

Ted Lilly | LHP-S | Chicago Cubs | 10 WSAB | $5 million

How Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent December 6th, 2006.

I know. Last off-season I bemoaned this acquisition and deemed it foolhardy for the Cubs to sink what was a substantial contract at the time to a pitcher that had an era consistently above league average. I admit, I have eaten a nice foot sandwich. After the 2007 ended, Lilly has proven to be one of the most cost-effective free agent starters. He compiled a 15-8 record with a 3.83 era. For the first time in his career, he had thrown over 200 innings (207) and has improved his control by decreasing his walk rate from 10.2% in Toronto to 6.4% in Chicago.

Also a member of the Yankees-A's-Tigers trade involving Pena, Weaver and Bonderman, Lilly spent most of his career being spanked in the American League. I do believe that Lilly is more effective as an National League starter as he had the long-ball problems facing some of the AL top sluggers, so his numbers may not have reflected as well had he played in the Dome. I speculated that he would be punished in his new home Wrigley Field. While he did surrender a higher home run rate at the Friendly Confines (4.1%) versus the road (2.1%), his control improvement helped avoid the dangerous multi-run home runs. His 1.14 whip was the 4th best in the National League (only Jake Peavy, Chris Young and Cole Hamels finished better).

Gil Meche | RHP-S | Kansas City | 9 WSAB | $7 million

How Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent December 7th, 2006.

A lot of money for a sub-.500 team to invest in a starting pitcher without the proper upgrades surrounding him, however Meche did everything he could have done to earn his money. Even though his record was below .500, a he finished with a 9-13 record, a 3.67 era (122 era+), and led the league in games started (34), he still earned a place on the All-Star team. Had Meche thrown for the Twins, his record would have been vastly better (maybe inverse those win-loss numbers). This, of course, is not a signing the Twins would have considered. Instead, they sank little money into Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson in the efforts that proved minimal risk and minimal reward.

Being 29-year-old Meche has plenty of life in his arm. Some day when the Royals prospects like Gordon, Butler and Teaham all hit their stride at the same time, this could be a formidable opponent in the AL Central. I due question, however, the Royals front office's ability to provide Meche with ample support. The bullpen is looking solid with Joakim Soria (listed later) and David Riske but the rotation will be suspect. What starts to make this a hefty contract is that is back end is awfully pricey: He is due $11-million per year the next two seasons and then $12 per year the two seasons after that. I still have the sneaking suspicion that he could migrate to the "worst contracts" list in the next few years.

Jeremy Guthrie | RHP-S | Baltimore | 9 WSAB | $380,000

How Acquired: Selected off waivers January 29th, 2007.

Guthrie was drafted by the Cleveland Indians as the 22nd pick overall in the 2002 amateur draft and after several aborted attempts at cracking the Indians major league roster, Cleveland put him on the waivers where he was nabbed by Baltimore -- which was after Tampa Bay and Kansas City passed on him. The Twins would have never gotten a crack at him considering they had just visited the playoffs and were sitting low on the waiver wire list. The Twins currently have plenty of pitchers that have the same type of tools as Guthrie, still, you can't help but wonder what 2008 might look like with him in the mix following his breakout 2007 campaign.

He emerged in Baltimore as solid starter, appearing in 32 games and making 26 starts. He completed 175 innings with 123 strike outs (17.0% k%), a 7-5 record and a 3.70 era. In addition, his 1.20 whip was good enough for 9th in the AL. Guthrie will now be counted on to deliver a similar performance now that the Orioles have traded Erik Bedard to Seattle. He was hit hard in August (6.23 era in 34.2 innings) and September (4.50 era in 16 innings) which may raise some red-flags for those looking to blame a fluky season.

Jayson Werth | RF | Philadelphia | 8 WSAB | $850,000

How Acquired: Signed as a minor league contract with a spring training invite December 19th, 2006.

Comes from a good line of baseball lineage including Dick Schofield (grandfather) and Dick Schofield (uncle). Oh, and stepson of Dennis Werth. So not quite the Aarons, DiMaggios or even Cansecos, but it is something.

From 2002 to 2005, Jayson split time between Toronto and Los Angeles Dodgers as essentially a spare part. While mostly a role player in the outfield, Werth had a decent 2004 with the Dodgers where he had an .824 ops. Signed as a minor league free agent, the Phillies gave him 255 at-bats and Werth responded by hitting .298/.404/.459. He bested his previous career high in ops (.824) with an .863 one. While doing nothing spectacular, Werth hit line drives at a 22% clip and accumulated a .391 babip.

In 2007, Werth mashed left-handed pitching, hitting .375/.467/.591 in 106 plate appearance. Once again, I will bring up the Twins inability to hit left-handed pitching last year - mostly due to the unforeseen injury to Rondell White keeping them void of a right-handed power bat. His future has him pegged as a platoon partner with the newly acquired lefty Geoff Jenkins.

Dmitri Young | DH-1B | Washington | 7 WSAB | $500,000

How Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent February 14th, 2007.

It seemed that everytime the Twins played the Tigers, Bert Blyleven would remind those of us watching on FoxSportsNet how desirous the Twins were over Young. It was the trade that never took place, possibly because Tigers were asking too much for Young who was best defensively suited for designated hitter. After some domestic situations, the Tiger finally released Young in September 2006 (to his dismay) and let anyone take a crack at him. The Twins, already loaded with Rondell White and Justin Morneau at dh and first base, had no really need for the switch hitter. Nevertheless, for $500,000 and a invitation to Ft Myers extended to the 33-year-old they once coveted, the Twins could have had one of the least expensive, most productive hitters in 2007.

Young finished .320/.378/.491 with 13 home runs and was spraying line drives in 22% of his balls in play. It was good enough to get him on the 2007 National League All Star roster. The Nationals extended Young's contract for two more seasons but now faces the problem of having Nick Johnson finally return in 2008.

Russ Springer | RHP-R | St. Louis | 7 WSAB | $1.75 million

How Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent December 9th, 2006.

Call this season an aberration or a fluke, but Springer was legit in the Cardinals bullpen. His low era (2.18) was reaffirmed by his low FIP (2.77) while his strikeout rate was high (25.7%) and his walk rate was low (7.4%). Springer's whip was under 1.00 (0.909) and he threw a little under one inning per appearance (0.88) and managed to vulture 8 victories during that time, reminiscent of Tony Fiore. Sure, the Twins have plenty of bullpen arms, but take this acquisition as a blueprint in case the well runs dry.

Matt Stairs | DH-1B | Toronto | 7 WSAB | $850,000

How Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent December 12th, 2006

Better viewed as a beer league softball player or a "Bigger Loser" contestant midway through the series, Stairs proved that you don't have to look pretty to hit pretty. "I've got a beer gut. I've got a goatee and long hair. I'm a rebel. I enjoy life. I don't think I'm better than anyone. I always treat people with respect, because if I didn't, my old man would whup my ass." Stairs described himself to the San Francisco Examiner in 2000 while with Oakland.

Toronto was rewarded for not passing judgement on the portly Canadian native (St. Johns, New Brunswick), who supplied them with 21 home runs and a .289/.368/.529 season. His isolated slugging average was a hefty .260 as Stairs crushed line drives in 20% of the balls in play. Similar to Dmitri Young, the Twins did not have starting room for Stairs at either first base or dh, but having this kind of potent bat on the bench would have been wonderful. In 2008 at the rip age of 40, Stairs will find himself behind Frank Thomas and Lyle Overbay but would be a very good insurance policy once again.

Joakim Soria | RHP-R | Kansas City | 7 WSAB | $360,000

How Acquired: Drafted from San Diego in the Rule 5 draft on December 6th, 2006.

There hasn't been too many Kansas City relief pitchers in recent memory that came into face the Twins with a lead and I've thought: "Game over". When Soria was first deployed on April 22nd against the Twins at Kauffman, I had yet to hear of Soria - aside from the fact that he had pitched in the Mexican League. Asked to get the heart of the Twins order in the top of the ninth, Soria got Cuddyer to ground out to second, struck out Morneau looking, gave up a bunt single to Torii and then closed it out by striking out Redmond to earn his 2nd career save. If that wasn't enough, two days later he again saved a 4-3 game at the Metrodome by pitching the 8th and 9th. Soria has legit stuff.

In his 69 innings pitched, Soria whiffed 27.8% of his batters faced with a minimal 7.0% walk rate. He finished with 17 saves finally solidifying the backend of the Royals bullpen in 2008.

Sammy Sosa | DH-RF | Texas | 6 WSAB | $500,000 ($2 million with bonuses)

How Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent January 30th, 2007.

After missing the 2006 season, it was hard to believe that Sosa would have provided any offensive production to a major league team, especially after his stint in Baltimore. There were plenty of doubters: "But if the new Sammy becomes the old Sammy, then this marriage between Sosa and the Texas Rangers will end in either a quickie annulment or a messy divorce," wrote Gene Wojciechowski in ESPN preparing us all for what seemed would be a collision course with a May release of Slammin' Sammy. Still he proved everyone wrong and did what he was known for and socked the ball around, hitting 21 home runs with an isop of .216. The Twins, lacking any sort of right-handed designated hitter should have been shopping for a player like this: He absolutely crushed left-handed pitching. His .328/.410/.613 (1.024 ops) would have done wonders for the punchless Twins lineup against the lefties in the AL Central.

Still on the market as of February 10th, Sosa remains the kind of player the Twins should consider extending a contract to to battle Craig Monroe as the 4th outfielder/right handed designated hitter. The Dallas Morning Star is suggesting that Sosa believes he can get $8 million for the 2008, which would price him right out of the Twin Cities.

Josh Hamilton | OF | Cincinnati | 6 WSAB | $350,000

How Acquired: Drafted by the Chicago Cubs from Tampa Bay in the 2006 Rule 5 draft. Cincinnati traded Chicago for him.

Overcoming adversity. Wrestling with personal demons. Whatever media cliche you want to use for Hamilton, insert it now and get past it because he has done so with his sorted past that involved "a bottle of Crown Royal a day with cocaine or crack". There are plenty of storys involving Hamiton's faith-based career resurrection. I sometimes question how this would play out in the Twins clubhouse (considering the reaction Gary Gaetti's highly publicized and vocal faith played out with the team). It would appear that as opposed to some teams like the Atlanta Braves, which have sermons at the ballpark (hosted by John Smoltz), the Twins are quite the non-denominational club. Nevertheless, I wouldn't have minded if Hamilton was wiccan or a snake-handler the way he raked in 2007. His belated rookie season came complete with 19 home runs (.262 isop) and .292/.368/.554 batting line in only 298 at-bats. Now with Texas, I would expect that his power numbers would increase due to the Ballpark at Arlington's hitter-friendly atmosphere.

AL Central Round-Up. 2/5/08.

Chicago White Sox

• The Chicago Tribune does a nice job of making Carlos Quentin appear to be a mental midget. Which is a good fit in the South Side where everyone from Carl Everett to Brian Anderson to Billy Koch, hell, to Ozzie Guillen and Kenny Williams have been questioned for their makeup. When the White Sox swapped low-A masher Chris Carter for triple-A/mlb ready prospect Carlos Quentin they essentially received what they had already had stockpiled: a corner outfielder. The White Sox have Jermaine Dye, Josh Fields and now Nick Swisher, it would seem that Quentin does not have a guaranteed spot. Even manager Ozzie Guillen doesn't know what to quite make of him: "If Quentin plays the way people talk about him, oh, my goodness," Sox manager Ozzie Guillen told the Tribune. "I've got to make my own decision because I've never seen him play." Quentin has been accused of "tinkering" with his swing at the slightest sign of a slump and has employed "mental coaching" as part of his conditioning.
• What is ironic is what the Sox could have really used is a centerfielder-type like Chris Young, whom along with Justin Upton and Eric Byrnes, was blocking Quentin in the D'Backs organization. Young was acquired from the White Sox in December, 2005 along with Orlando Hernandez and Luis Vizcaino for Javier Vazquez. Last season, for $12.5 million, Vazquez contributed 19 win shares. For a fraction of that ($380,000) Young contributed 16 win shares to the Diamondbacks. This is just one of many trades that Kenny Williams will be regretting.
• Speaking of regrettable Williams orchestrated trades, here is a whole slew of them that will benefit the Oakland A's come 2010.
• In a rather minor trade, the White Sox shipped flame-throwing rhp David Aardsma to the Boston Red Sox for two low-A relievers. This might be another case on a team giving up way too early on a decent arm. Despite his wild spells (walk rate of 11.3% in 2007), Aardsma can get the strike out (23.5% strike out rate). His detriment was lack of defense - opponents hit over .400 on balls put in play. If the Red Sox can harness his control, he has the potential to be a lights-out set-up guy.

Cleveland Indians

• One good thing that may have come from parting with Johan Santana is now CC Sabathia may be priced out of Cleveland. The Plain Dealer's Paul Hoynes:

The average annual value of the offer is between $17 million and $18 million a year. Carlos Zambrano's AAV with the Cubs is $18.3 million. Jake Peavy's AAV is $17.3 million for his new three-year extension with San Diego. The Indians' offer fits well there, especially since Sabathia and Peavy are the defending Cy Young winners.

The problem is the six-year, $137.5 million extension Johan Santana signed Friday with the Mets to complete his trade from Minnesota. Santana's contract averages $22.92 million a year.

It's hard to expect the Indians to meet New York prices, but they're probably going to have make adjustments because Sabathia, who compares favorable with Santana in many statistical categories, is a free agent after the 2008 season.

• You have to admire the frankness of the Indians front office. When pressed by the repercussions of the Santana trade-and-sign GM Mark Shapiro told ESPN: "Recognizing the market we're operating in, we have to be aware of risk and we have to be careful," Shapiro said. "There are people like C.C. who will push the boundaries of our risk tolerance. C.C., because of who he is as a person, as a teammate, as a man and what he can do on the mound, will push the boundaries of our risk tolerance. Frankly, he already has." Assistant General Manager Chris Antonetti echoed Shapiro's sentiment by saying "It varies according to the level of risk. We have guidelines and parameters that are important to us based on the success and failure of previous contracts. But each contract and each player is unique."
• For those of you who think that a new stadium is a blank check, please reference the statement above and the Indians franchise on the whole. The Jake cum Progressive Field hasn't faced much of a problem selling tickets yet Cleveland will still be hard-pressed to retain the best left-handed pitcher remaining in the AL Central. You can use the "miserly owner" as the scapegoat but in the end it will come back to the market-size and revenue generated. Had Victory Sports Network caught on as the premiere channel to watch Twins games, we might be seeing an escalation in the budget (and the retention of one Johan Santana). This revenue stream has done wonders for Boston and New York. Then again, it has failed in Kansas City where they will be broadcasting on FoxSports instead of their own station.
• The Indians also signed Jorge Julio to a minor league contract. A right-handed relief arm, Julio had a good resurgence with the Rockies last season as he turned in a 3.93 era in 52.2 innings of work. He finished with a 22.6% strike out rate and a 9.0% walk rate. This is a cheap contract that if Julio is able to regain his 2007 composure, he would be another decent (and inexpensive) option in the bullpen.

Detroit Tigers

• With the escalating costs of genuine centerfielders, this multi-year contract with Curtis Granderson might have been the best off-season move the Tigers made. Totaling 5-years, $30.25 million, Granderson will make $1 million in 2008 and then $10 million in 2011. Last season Granderson put up nearly identical offensive numbers to the NL MVP Jimmy Rollins (who will be making $5 million next year). He strikes out in 20%+ of his plate appearances but it is hard to argue against a .912 ops. With the kind of ground he covers at Comerica, Granderson should also be considered for an MVP at some point in his career. Plus I love the fact that Granderson is a Northwoods League alum. Kind of makes him "one of us".
• As the Tigers start emerging as the premier hated big-budget team in the AL Central that has worn out its feel-good story, I will definitely root for Anthony Tomey after reading this Detroit Free Press article about the Tigers farm hand that also owns a Jimmy Johns sub shop. There is something life-affirming when reading that after the on-slaught of the Santana salary negotiations.

Kansas City Royals

• After giving up on a useful role player like Emil Brown, the Royals re-sign un-useful Esteban German to a one-year, $1-million contract. Joe Posnanski summarized the feelings of the Royals faithful in Brown, who was their Lew Ford type. While German had a solid 2006 hitting .326/.414/.459 in 331 plate appearances, he came back to earth in 2007 finishing .264/.374/.396 in 401 plate appearance. If Brown is the equivalent to Lew Ford, German is the Nick Punto of the Kansas City Royals.
• Here's something that might make some Royals fans happy: the future (Now in top ten prospect flavor! Still with that great Baseball America taste!).
• Speaking of Posnanski, since he is the best thing to come out of Kansas City besides I-35, check out his blog yesterday. Solid stuff on the Super Bowl, but great scene in which he riffs the creation of Gilligan's Island.

Minnesota Twins

• Somebody named Santana was traded.
• Dear Anybody Who Will Listen At the Twins Front Office: Please do not sign Josh Fogg. At Fangraph, there are plenty of visual evidence why the Twins should not sign Josh Fogg. Including this nugget of oppenent batting average. Yuck.
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• You want more? How about a WHIP comparison...
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• I love sifting through archives of local newspapers. That is why I dig the Star Tribune's Yesterday News blog. This article covering the 1976 Bert Blyleven trade is priceless. The caption under the photograph of Bert reads that he is 19-years-old. I have to say that he doesn't look a day under 47 in that. You decide. La Velle took a crack at the new Top Twenty Twins Prospects in lieu of the Santana trade.
• Seth gives his rundown of the 2008 Twins roster. One thing that is glaring to me is the abscence of Glen Perkins. Yes, he had the arm issues, but I truly think that Perkins will emerge as a solid candidate in spring training.
• The Gleeman is running down the Top Forty Prospects in the system.
• According to Jayson Stark, the Mets might take another option off of our table: Kenny Lofton.