Twins sign Innings Eater.
About fifteen years ago, I owned a book written by Jay Leno playing off of his various “Headlines” shtick sent in by loyal fans nationwide. There would be a headline (such as “Trees Break Wind”) from a paper sent in from Bismarck, North Dakota, Scottsbluff, Nebraska or what have you followed by a witty comment (“I thought that forest smelt funny”). One in particular was from a Muesli* cereal ad. The ad print read “Muesli: if you are not satisfied, we’ll send you another box, for free!” Leno’s commentary under the headline image was something like “Dear Muesli, your cereal tasted terrible. Thank you for sending me more.”
What does Livan Hernandez have to do with cereal and late night comedy bit made popular in the early 1990s?
The Twins front office - like the good people at the Muesli Global Corp. - is hedging their bets that more equals better. They are not necessary analyzing the quality but rather the quantity - a mistake comparable to thinking that subduing this fire requires a tad more gas.
Hernandez claims he will be 33 years old in 2008 (then again, he also told Cuban officials that he would be right back). Admittedly, the market for established starters who have thrown 150-plus innings in 2007 is stretched thin (Fogg, Benson, Lohse) and Carlos Silva set the bar by signing to his 4-year, $48-million dollar contract. If he is indeed 33 years old, $5-million for the one season (and an addition $2-million if qualifies for bonuses) would seem like a minimal risk. Supporters of this signing will argue that signing Hernandez will give the Twins pitchers veteran leadership (a quality that is not definable statistically), alleviate usage of the bullpen and provide one more season of minor league development for the pitching prospects. Most indications say that the Twins needed some "experience".
Last season, unable to leave the keys to the mound to a group of talented prospects, the Twins signed Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson to round out the rotation with the expectation that they would be digesting innings in the majors while Matt Garza, Kevin Slowey and Scott Baker put the finishing touches on in the minors. As the year played out, Ortiz and Ponson combined for 108.2 innings and were eventually displaced leaving 292.4 innings to Garza, Slowey and Baker. Not only did they pitch more, the young guns threw better innings. The former veterans had a 6.73 era; the later prospects had an era of 4.21.
Instead of relying on your own talent the Twins squandered 108 innings and missed the opportunity have Garza, Slowey and Baker in the rotation everything 5th day. Baker is on his way to being declared the staff “ace” in 2008 (that is, if Liriano doesn't rebound). Garza’s showcasing eventually landed the Twins Delmon Young this offseason. Slowey could find himself as the 4th or 5th starter.
What is startling is the comparison between Ortiz’s 2006 season with Washington and Hernandez’s 2007 season with Arizona. Ortiz finished with 190 innings and an 11-16 record with a 5.57 era in the NL East, Hernandez threw 204 innings with an 11-11 record and a 4.93 era. Peripherally, their numbers are even more closely related:
|
| Inn. | BB% | K% | GB% | BABIP | HR/AIR | FIP | RA/9 |
| L. Hernandez (2007) | 204.1 | 8.7% | 9.9% | 40% | .314 | 8% | 5.71 | 5.11 |
| R. Ortiz (2006) | 190.1 | 7.3% | 11.9% | 44% | .316 | 8% | 5.39 | 5.99 |
200+ innings is great, only if they are not laden with runs surrendered. As Hernandez’s 2007 home run total (34, 2nd in the NL), earned runs (114, 4th) and hits allowed (247, 1st) would suggest, he is a potential liability in the designated hitter American League. The Twins should have no obligation to consider buying, considering the talent available in-house candidates, or at least judging by the 2008 ZiPs standards:
| Zips | Innings | Era |
| L. Hernandez | 193.0 | 5.55 |
| F. Liriano | 166.0 | 3.42 |
| S. Baker | 186.0 | 4.50 |
| B. Bonser | 179.0 | 4.98 |
| K. Slowey | 181.0 | 3.96 |
| N. Blackburn | 150.0 | 4.86 |
| B. Duensing | 167.0 | 5.23 |
Last season, Ortiz and Ponson blocked Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey, two young arms that provided the team with quality innings last season and will potentially be integral components of the rotation. Clearly tapping Hernandez is yet another message that the front office is once again buttressing the 2008 rotation, unable to commit to the young organizational talent. The Twins should learn their own lesson from 2007: let the youngster eat the innings.
*The cereal brand might not correct, but it was some sort of high-fiber, non-sugary stuff. Apologies to the Muesli people.
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