Twins sign Innings Eater.

About fifteen years ago, I owned a book written by Jay Leno playing off of his various “Headlines” shtick sent in by loyal fans nationwide. There would be a headline (such as “Trees Break Wind”) from a paper sent in from Bismarck, North Dakota, Scottsbluff, Nebraska or what have you followed by a witty comment (“I thought that forest smelt funny”). One in particular was from a Muesli* cereal ad. The ad print read “Muesli: if you are not satisfied, we’ll send you another box, for free!” Leno’s commentary under the headline image was something like “Dear Muesli, your cereal tasted terrible. Thank you for sending me more.”

What does Livan Hernandez have to do with cereal and late night comedy bit made popular in the early 1990s?

The Twins front office - like the good people at the Muesli Global Corp. - is hedging their bets that more equals better. They are not necessary analyzing the quality but rather the quantity - a mistake comparable to thinking that subduing this fire requires a tad more gas.

Hernandez claims he will be 33 years old in 2008 (then again, he also told Cuban officials that he would be right back). Admittedly, the market for established starters who have thrown 150-plus innings in 2007 is stretched thin (Fogg, Benson, Lohse) and Carlos Silva set the bar by signing to his 4-year, $48-million dollar contract. If he is indeed 33 years old, $5-million for the one season (and an addition $2-million if qualifies for bonuses) would seem like a minimal risk. Supporters of this signing will argue that signing Hernandez will give the Twins pitchers veteran leadership (a quality that is not definable statistically), alleviate usage of the bullpen and provide one more season of minor league development for the pitching prospects. Most indications say that the Twins needed some "experience".

Last season, unable to leave the keys to the mound to a group of talented prospects, the Twins signed Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson to round out the rotation with the expectation that they would be digesting innings in the majors while Matt Garza, Kevin Slowey and Scott Baker put the finishing touches on in the minors. As the year played out, Ortiz and Ponson combined for 108.2 innings and were eventually displaced leaving 292.4 innings to Garza, Slowey and Baker. Not only did they pitch more, the young guns threw better innings. The former veterans had a 6.73 era; the later prospects had an era of 4.21.

Instead of relying on your own talent the Twins squandered 108 innings and missed the opportunity have Garza, Slowey and Baker in the rotation everything 5^th day. Baker is on his way to being declared the staff “ace” in 2008 (that is, if Liriano doesn't rebound). Garza’s showcasing eventually landed the Twins Delmon Young this offseason. Slowey could find himself as the 4^th or 5^th starter.

What is startling is the comparison between Ortiz’s 2006 season with Washington and Hernandez’s 2007 season with Arizona. Ortiz finished with 190 innings and an 11-16 record with a 5.57 era in the NL East, Hernandez threw 204 innings with an 11-11 record and a 4.93 era. Peripherally, their numbers are even more closely related:

	Inn.	BB%	K%	GB%	BABIP	HR/AIR	FIP	RA/9
L. Hernandez (2007)	204.1	8.7%	9.9%	40%	.314	8%	5.71	5.11
R. Ortiz (2006)	190.1	7.3%	11.9%	44%	.316	8%	5.39	5.99

200+ innings is great, only if they are not laden with runs surrendered. As Hernandez’s 2007 home run total (34, 2^nd in the NL), earned runs (114, 4th) and hits allowed (247, 1^st) would suggest, he is a potential liability in the designated hitter American League. The Twins should have no obligation to consider buying, considering the talent available in-house candidates, or at least judging by the 2008 ZiPs standards:

Zips	Innings	Era
L. Hernandez	193.0	5.55
F. Liriano	166.0	3.42
S. Baker	186.0	4.50
B. Bonser	179.0	4.98
K. Slowey	181.0	3.96
N. Blackburn	150.0	4.86
B. Duensing	167.0	5.23

Last season, Ortiz and Ponson blocked Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey, two young arms that provided the team with quality innings last season and will potentially be integral components of the rotation. Clearly tapping Hernandez is yet another message that the front office is once again buttressing the 2008 rotation, unable to commit to the young organizational talent. The Twins should learn their own lesson from 2007: let the youngster eat the innings.

*The cereal brand might not correct, but it was some sort of high-fiber, non-sugary stuff. Apologies to the Muesli people.

Best and Worst Acquisitions of 2007 (Frugality Free Agent/Trade Division)

One thing the Twins do a good job on is identifying minor league talent in the lower levels that blossom into useful parts (Liriano, Barlett, Casilla, Bonser, etc). This has been a tool that has kept the budget low. However, the Twins have been as bad as anybody when it comes to finding inexpensive existing talent. In recent memory, the Twins have tried Ramon Ortiz, Sidney Ponson, Rondell White, Jeff Cirillo, Tony Batista, Ruben Sierra, Phil Nevin, Brett Boone, and Jose Offerman.

The only acquisition that I can think of that provided consistent production all season was Kenny Rogers (who happened to be a last second signing during the 2003 spring training). Maybe it was that the Twins didn't have time to think or didn't have any other options, whatever the case might have been, this was a happy accident. It seems that premeditation into the free agent market was not Terry Ryan's strong suit. Naturally, most of the guys listed below are players that were also happy accidents. Then again, most also had previous track records that indicated there was a history of success at various levels.

I will withhold judgement on the Bill Smith seeing as that Adam Everett and Mike Lamb have yet to play an inning in the Twins uniform, but the recent chatter revolving around signing another "veteran arm" has me thinking "Meet the new boss; same as the old boss".

Carlos Pena | 1B | Tampa Bay | 19 WSAB | $800,000

How Acquired: Signed a minor league contract with a spring training invite February 1st, 2007.

Once viewed as the best prospect in both the Rangers and A's organizations, Pena (along with Jeremy Bonderman and Franklyn German) was shipped to Detroit in the three-way trade with New York and Oakland. Given the opportunity in Motown to play first base everyday, Pena showed great power in a vast Comerica ballpark but seemed over-matched by major league pitching. His walk rate had decreased from the minors. He fell out of favor in Detroit. After being released by the Tigers in March 2006, the Yankees picked him up in April and stuck him in the minors. Without seeing the Big Ballpark in the Bronx, Pena was dropped by New York August 16th, 2006 and was picked up by Boston the very next day. Given only 37 plate appearances with Boston, he was granted his free agency at the end of the season.

He started the 2007 season as a non-roster invitation to Devil Rays spring training and finished as the American League's Comeback Player of the Year. While hitting line drives in 21% of balls in play, he displayed the power that was always there with 46 home runs (second only to Alex Rodriguez), magnified by a .345 isolated slugging average. Pena's home run every 10.2 at-bats was the best in the American League. To show that he was not just a freeswinger, Pena walked in 18.0% of his plate appearances too. Pena's .282/.411/.627 batting line was one of the best in the American League and his 1.038 OPS was 5th best in the league as well. Of course any GM can retrospectively ask themselves why they did not take a flyer out on him, proving once again that minor league numbers do predict major league ability in various ways. His monster year was rewarded with a 3 year/$24.1 million dollar contract in the off-season.

Jack Cust | DH-OF | Oakland | 12 WSAB | $380,000

How Acquired: Traded from San Diego May 8th, 2007.

Almost destined to be an asterisks in the baseball history as an "AAAA" player, Cust was rescued from Crash Davis status by Billy Beane and the Oakland A's in May 2007 at the cost of A Player to Be Named Later from San Diego. His minor league track record show that Cust contained the qualities that Beane and the A's front office lusted over: patience and power. The same qualities that could have benefited the Twins as well. Inserted immediately as a designated hitter and outfielder, the small gamble paid dividends.

Cust finished with 26 home runs (.248 isop) and a .256/.408/.504 batting line, not bad for someone toiling in the International and Pacific Coast Leagues. He led the American League in strikeouts with 164 (a 32.2% k%) but offset this by being 2nd in walks with 105 (21.0% bb%). The feelgoodery surrounding his story is somewhat tainted by the PED allegations contain in the Mitchell Report, those of which Cust vehemently denies (like everyone else still with a career to worry about).

Ted Lilly | LHP-S | Chicago Cubs | 10 WSAB | $5 million

How Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent December 6th, 2006.

I know. Last off-season I bemoaned this acquisition and deemed it foolhardy for the Cubs to sink what was a substantial contract at the time to a pitcher that had an era consistently above league average. I admit, I have eaten a nice foot sandwich. After the 2007 ended, Lilly has proven to be one of the most cost-effective free agent starters. He compiled a 15-8 record with a 3.83 era. For the first time in his career, he had thrown over 200 innings (207) and has improved his control by decreasing his walk rate from 10.2% in Toronto to 6.4% in Chicago.

Also a member of the Yankees-A's-Tigers trade involving Pena, Weaver and Bonderman, Lilly spent most of his career being spanked in the American League. I do believe that Lilly is more effective as an National League starter as he had the long-ball problems facing some of the AL top sluggers, so his numbers may not have reflected as well had he played in the Dome. I speculated that he would be punished in his new home Wrigley Field. While he did surrender a higher home run rate at the Friendly Confines (4.1%) versus the road (2.1%), his control improvement helped avoid the dangerous multi-run home runs. His 1.14 whip was the 4th best in the National League (only Jake Peavy, Chris Young and Cole Hamels finished better).

Gil Meche | RHP-S | Kansas City | 9 WSAB | $7 million

How Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent December 7th, 2006.

A lot of money for a sub-.500 team to invest in a starting pitcher without the proper upgrades surrounding him, however Meche did everything he could have done to earn his money. Even though his record was below .500, a he finished with a 9-13 record, a 3.67 era (122 era+), and led the league in games started (34), he still earned a place on the All-Star team. Had Meche thrown for the Twins, his record would have been vastly better (maybe inverse those win-loss numbers). This, of course, is not a signing the Twins would have considered. Instead, they sank little money into Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson in the efforts that proved minimal risk and minimal reward.

Being 29-year-old Meche has plenty of life in his arm. Some day when the Royals prospects like Gordon, Butler and Teaham all hit their stride at the same time, this could be a formidable opponent in the AL Central. I due question, however, the Royals front office's ability to provide Meche with ample support. The bullpen is looking solid with Joakim Soria (listed later) and David Riske but the rotation will be suspect. What starts to make this a hefty contract is that is back end is awfully pricey: He is due $11-million per year the next two seasons and then $12 per year the two seasons after that. I still have the sneaking suspicion that he could migrate to the "worst contracts" list in the next few years.

Jeremy Guthrie | RHP-S | Baltimore | 9 WSAB | $380,000

How Acquired: Selected off waivers January 29th, 2007.

Guthrie was drafted by the Cleveland Indians as the 22nd pick overall in the 2002 amateur draft and after several aborted attempts at cracking the Indians major league roster, Cleveland put him on the waivers where he was nabbed by Baltimore -- which was after Tampa Bay and Kansas City passed on him. The Twins would have never gotten a crack at him considering they had just visited the playoffs and were sitting low on the waiver wire list. The Twins currently have plenty of pitchers that have the same type of tools as Guthrie, still, you can't help but wonder what 2008 might look like with him in the mix following his breakout 2007 campaign.

He emerged in Baltimore as solid starter, appearing in 32 games and making 26 starts. He completed 175 innings with 123 strike outs (17.0% k%), a 7-5 record and a 3.70 era. In addition, his 1.20 whip was good enough for 9th in the AL. Guthrie will now be counted on to deliver a similar performance now that the Orioles have traded Erik Bedard to Seattle. He was hit hard in August (6.23 era in 34.2 innings) and September (4.50 era in 16 innings) which may raise some red-flags for those looking to blame a fluky season.

Jayson Werth | RF | Philadelphia | 8 WSAB | $850,000

How Acquired: Signed as a minor league contract with a spring training invite December 19th, 2006.

Comes from a good line of baseball lineage including Dick Schofield (grandfather) and Dick Schofield (uncle). Oh, and stepson of Dennis Werth. So not quite the Aarons, DiMaggios or even Cansecos, but it is something.

From 2002 to 2005, Jayson split time between Toronto and Los Angeles Dodgers as essentially a spare part. While mostly a role player in the outfield, Werth had a decent 2004 with the Dodgers where he had an .824 ops. Signed as a minor league free agent, the Phillies gave him 255 at-bats and Werth responded by hitting .298/.404/.459. He bested his previous career high in ops (.824) with an .863 one. While doing nothing spectacular, Werth hit line drives at a 22% clip and accumulated a .391 babip.

In 2007, Werth mashed left-handed pitching, hitting .375/.467/.591 in 106 plate appearance. Once again, I will bring up the Twins inability to hit left-handed pitching last year - mostly due to the unforeseen injury to Rondell White keeping them void of a right-handed power bat. His future has him pegged as a platoon partner with the newly acquired lefty Geoff Jenkins.

Dmitri Young | DH-1B | Washington | 7 WSAB | $500,000

How Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent February 14th, 2007.

It seemed that everytime the Twins played the Tigers, Bert Blyleven would remind those of us watching on FoxSportsNet how desirous the Twins were over Young. It was the trade that never took place, possibly because Tigers were asking too much for Young who was best defensively suited for designated hitter. After some domestic situations, the Tiger finally released Young in September 2006 (to his dismay) and let anyone take a crack at him. The Twins, already loaded with Rondell White and Justin Morneau at dh and first base, had no really need for the switch hitter. Nevertheless, for $500,000 and a invitation to Ft Myers extended to the 33-year-old they once coveted, the Twins could have had one of the least expensive, most productive hitters in 2007.

Young finished .320/.378/.491 with 13 home runs and was spraying line drives in 22% of his balls in play. It was good enough to get him on the 2007 National League All Star roster. The Nationals extended Young's contract for two more seasons but now faces the problem of having Nick Johnson finally return in 2008.

Russ Springer | RHP-R | St. Louis | 7 WSAB | $1.75 million

How Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent December 9th, 2006.

Call this season an aberration or a fluke, but Springer was legit in the Cardinals bullpen. His low era (2.18) was reaffirmed by his low FIP (2.77) while his strikeout rate was high (25.7%) and his walk rate was low (7.4%). Springer's whip was under 1.00 (0.909) and he threw a little under one inning per appearance (0.88) and managed to vulture 8 victories during that time, reminiscent of Tony Fiore. Sure, the Twins have plenty of bullpen arms, but take this acquisition as a blueprint in case the well runs dry.

Matt Stairs | DH-1B | Toronto | 7 WSAB | $850,000

How Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent December 12th, 2006

Better viewed as a beer league softball player or a "Bigger Loser" contestant midway through the series, Stairs proved that you don't have to look pretty to hit pretty. "I've got a beer gut. I've got a goatee and long hair. I'm a rebel. I enjoy life. I don't think I'm better than anyone. I always treat people with respect, because if I didn't, my old man would whup my ass." Stairs described himself to the San Francisco Examiner in 2000 while with Oakland.

Toronto was rewarded for not passing judgement on the portly Canadian native (St. Johns, New Brunswick), who supplied them with 21 home runs and a .289/.368/.529 season. His isolated slugging average was a hefty .260 as Stairs crushed line drives in 20% of the balls in play. Similar to Dmitri Young, the Twins did not have starting room for Stairs at either first base or dh, but having this kind of potent bat on the bench would have been wonderful. In 2008 at the rip age of 40, Stairs will find himself behind Frank Thomas and Lyle Overbay but would be a very good insurance policy once again.

Joakim Soria | RHP-R | Kansas City | 7 WSAB | $360,000

How Acquired: Drafted from San Diego in the Rule 5 draft on December 6th, 2006.

There hasn't been too many Kansas City relief pitchers in recent memory that came into face the Twins with a lead and I've thought: "Game over". When Soria was first deployed on April 22nd against the Twins at Kauffman, I had yet to hear of Soria - aside from the fact that he had pitched in the Mexican League. Asked to get the heart of the Twins order in the top of the ninth, Soria got Cuddyer to ground out to second, struck out Morneau looking, gave up a bunt single to Torii and then closed it out by striking out Redmond to earn his 2nd career save. If that wasn't enough, two days later he again saved a 4-3 game at the Metrodome by pitching the 8th and 9th. Soria has legit stuff.

In his 69 innings pitched, Soria whiffed 27.8% of his batters faced with a minimal 7.0% walk rate. He finished with 17 saves finally solidifying the backend of the Royals bullpen in 2008.

Sammy Sosa | DH-RF | Texas | 6 WSAB | $500,000 ($2 million with bonuses)

How Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent January 30th, 2007.

After missing the 2006 season, it was hard to believe that Sosa would have provided any offensive production to a major league team, especially after his stint in Baltimore. There were plenty of doubters: "But if the new Sammy becomes the old Sammy, then this marriage between Sosa and the Texas Rangers will end in either a quickie annulment or a messy divorce," wrote Gene Wojciechowski in ESPN preparing us all for what seemed would be a collision course with a May release of Slammin' Sammy. Still he proved everyone wrong and did what he was known for and socked the ball around, hitting 21 home runs with an isop of .216. The Twins, lacking any sort of right-handed designated hitter should have been shopping for a player like this: He absolutely crushed left-handed pitching. His .328/.410/.613 (1.024 ops) would have done wonders for the punchless Twins lineup against the lefties in the AL Central.

Still on the market as of February 10th, Sosa remains the kind of player the Twins should consider extending a contract to to battle Craig Monroe as the 4th outfielder/right handed designated hitter. The Dallas Morning Star is suggesting that Sosa believes he can get $8 million for the 2008, which would price him right out of the Twin Cities.

Josh Hamilton | OF | Cincinnati | 6 WSAB | $350,000

How Acquired: Drafted by the Chicago Cubs from Tampa Bay in the 2006 Rule 5 draft. Cincinnati traded Chicago for him.

Overcoming adversity. Wrestling with personal demons. Whatever media cliche you want to use for Hamilton, insert it now and get past it because he has done so with his sorted past that involved "a bottle of Crown Royal a day with cocaine or crack". There are plenty of storys involving Hamiton's faith-based career resurrection. I sometimes question how this would play out in the Twins clubhouse (considering the reaction Gary Gaetti's highly publicized and vocal faith played out with the team). It would appear that as opposed to some teams like the Atlanta Braves, which have sermons at the ballpark (hosted by John Smoltz), the Twins are quite the non-denominational club. Nevertheless, I wouldn't have minded if Hamilton was wiccan or a snake-handler the way he raked in 2007. His belated rookie season came complete with 19 home runs (.262 isop) and .292/.368/.554 batting line in only 298 at-bats. Now with Texas, I would expect that his power numbers would increase due to the Ballpark at Arlington's hitter-friendly atmosphere.

AL Central Round-Up. 2/5/08.

Chicago White Sox

• The Chicago Tribune does a nice job of making Carlos Quentin appear to be a mental midget. Which is a good fit in the South Side where everyone from Carl Everett to Brian Anderson to Billy Koch, hell, to Ozzie Guillen and Kenny Williams have been questioned for their makeup. When the White Sox swapped low-A masher Chris Carter for triple-A/mlb ready prospect Carlos Quentin they essentially received what they had already had stockpiled: a corner outfielder. The White Sox have Jermaine Dye, Josh Fields and now Nick Swisher, it would seem that Quentin does not have a guaranteed spot. Even manager Ozzie Guillen doesn't know what to quite make of him: "If Quentin plays the way people talk about him, oh, my goodness," Sox manager Ozzie Guillen told the Tribune. "I've got to make my own decision because I've never seen him play." Quentin has been accused of "tinkering" with his swing at the slightest sign of a slump and has employed "mental coaching" as part of his conditioning.
• What is ironic is what the Sox could have really used is a centerfielder-type like Chris Young, whom along with Justin Upton and Eric Byrnes, was blocking Quentin in the D'Backs organization. Young was acquired from the White Sox in December, 2005 along with Orlando Hernandez and Luis Vizcaino for Javier Vazquez. Last season, for $12.5 million, Vazquez contributed 19 win shares. For a fraction of that ($380,000) Young contributed 16 win shares to the Diamondbacks. This is just one of many trades that Kenny Williams will be regretting.
• Speaking of regrettable Williams orchestrated trades, here is a whole slew of them that will benefit the Oakland A's come 2010.
• In a rather minor trade, the White Sox shipped flame-throwing rhp David Aardsma to the Boston Red Sox for two low-A relievers. This might be another case on a team giving up way too early on a decent arm. Despite his wild spells (walk rate of 11.3% in 2007), Aardsma can get the strike out (23.5% strike out rate). His detriment was lack of defense - opponents hit over .400 on balls put in play. If the Red Sox can harness his control, he has the potential to be a lights-out set-up guy.

Cleveland Indians

• One good thing that may have come from parting with Johan Santana is now CC Sabathia may be priced out of Cleveland. The Plain Dealer's Paul Hoynes:

The average annual value of the offer is between $17 million and $18 million a year. Carlos Zambrano's AAV with the Cubs is $18.3 million. Jake Peavy's AAV is $17.3 million for his new three-year extension with San Diego. The Indians' offer fits well there, especially since Sabathia and Peavy are the defending Cy Young winners.

The problem is the six-year, $137.5 million extension Johan Santana signed Friday with the Mets to complete his trade from Minnesota. Santana's contract averages $22.92 million a year.

It's hard to expect the Indians to meet New York prices, but they're probably going to have make adjustments because Sabathia, who compares favorable with Santana in many statistical categories, is a free agent after the 2008 season.

• You have to admire the frankness of the Indians front office. When pressed by the repercussions of the Santana trade-and-sign GM Mark Shapiro told ESPN: "Recognizing the market we're operating in, we have to be aware of risk and we have to be careful," Shapiro said. "There are people like C.C. who will push the boundaries of our risk tolerance. C.C., because of who he is as a person, as a teammate, as a man and what he can do on the mound, will push the boundaries of our risk tolerance. Frankly, he already has." Assistant General Manager Chris Antonetti echoed Shapiro's sentiment by saying "It varies according to the level of risk. We have guidelines and parameters that are important to us based on the success and failure of previous contracts. But each contract and each player is unique."
• For those of you who think that a new stadium is a blank check, please reference the statement above and the Indians franchise on the whole. The Jake cum Progressive Field hasn't faced much of a problem selling tickets yet Cleveland will still be hard-pressed to retain the best left-handed pitcher remaining in the AL Central. You can use the "miserly owner" as the scapegoat but in the end it will come back to the market-size and revenue generated. Had Victory Sports Network caught on as the premiere channel to watch Twins games, we might be seeing an escalation in the budget (and the retention of one Johan Santana). This revenue stream has done wonders for Boston and New York. Then again, it has failed in Kansas City where they will be broadcasting on FoxSports instead of their own station.
• The Indians also signed Jorge Julio to a minor league contract. A right-handed relief arm, Julio had a good resurgence with the Rockies last season as he turned in a 3.93 era in 52.2 innings of work. He finished with a 22.6% strike out rate and a 9.0% walk rate. This is a cheap contract that if Julio is able to regain his 2007 composure, he would be another decent (and inexpensive) option in the bullpen.

Detroit Tigers

• With the escalating costs of genuine centerfielders, this multi-year contract with Curtis Granderson might have been the best off-season move the Tigers made. Totaling 5-years, $30.25 million, Granderson will make $1 million in 2008 and then $10 million in 2011. Last season Granderson put up nearly identical offensive numbers to the NL MVP Jimmy Rollins (who will be making $5 million next year). He strikes out in 20%+ of his plate appearances but it is hard to argue against a .912 ops. With the kind of ground he covers at Comerica, Granderson should also be considered for an MVP at some point in his career. Plus I love the fact that Granderson is a Northwoods League alum. Kind of makes him "one of us".
• As the Tigers start emerging as the premier hated big-budget team in the AL Central that has worn out its feel-good story, I will definitely root for Anthony Tomey after reading this Detroit Free Press article about the Tigers farm hand that also owns a Jimmy Johns sub shop. There is something life-affirming when reading that after the on-slaught of the Santana salary negotiations.

Kansas City Royals

• After giving up on a useful role player like Emil Brown, the Royals re-sign un-useful Esteban German to a one-year, $1-million contract. Joe Posnanski summarized the feelings of the Royals faithful in Brown, who was their Lew Ford type. While German had a solid 2006 hitting .326/.414/.459 in 331 plate appearances, he came back to earth in 2007 finishing .264/.374/.396 in 401 plate appearance. If Brown is the equivalent to Lew Ford, German is the Nick Punto of the Kansas City Royals.
• Here's something that might make some Royals fans happy: the future (Now in top ten prospect flavor! Still with that great Baseball America taste!).
• Speaking of Posnanski, since he is the best thing to come out of Kansas City besides I-35, check out his blog yesterday. Solid stuff on the Super Bowl, but great scene in which he riffs the creation of Gilligan's Island.

Minnesota Twins

• Somebody named Santana was traded.
• Dear Anybody Who Will Listen At the Twins Front Office: Please do not sign Josh Fogg. At Fangraph, there are plenty of visual evidence why the Twins should not sign Josh Fogg. Including this nugget of oppenent batting average. Yuck.
• 
• You want more? How about a WHIP comparison...
• 
• I love sifting through archives of local newspapers. That is why I dig the Star Tribune's Yesterday News blog. This article covering the 1976 Bert Blyleven trade is priceless. The caption under the photograph of Bert reads that he is 19-years-old. I have to say that he doesn't look a day under 47 in that. You decide. La Velle took a crack at the new Top Twenty Twins Prospects in lieu of the Santana trade.
• Seth gives his rundown of the 2008 Twins roster. One thing that is glaring to me is the abscence of Glen Perkins. Yes, he had the arm issues, but I truly think that Perkins will emerge as a solid candidate in spring training.
• The Gleeman is running down the Top Forty Prospects in the system.
• According to Jayson Stark, the Mets might take another option off of our table: Kenny Lofton.

Most Improved Prospects (Increased Strike Out Rate Edition)

We have all witnessed the rising cost of major league ready pitching talent. We have beared witness to Carlos Silva being awarded a 4-year, $44-million dollar contract. Kyle Lohse, a marginal starter at best, has recently said he is relinquishing his previous Gil Meche-type contract demands, is still in a market that will pay him well above his talent level. The Twins are not able to play this game. The internal pipeline of pitching prospects must always be full in order for the team to remain financially competitive against those that can spend far, far too much for your Silvas and Lohses.

As a rough guide: 13-15% is good/questionable (as you will see is case with Waldrop below), 16-18% is solid, 19-21% is great and 22%+ is phenomenal. Now these numbers carry different weight at different levels. Having a 24% strike out rate for the GCL Twins is completely different from having the same for the Rochester Red Wings. For example, Ryan Mullins spent 2006 with Beloit and finished with a 20.4% strike out rate. The following year the Twins moved him through high-A to triple-A in a single seasons where his strike out rate flattened to 10.1% of total batters faced. Typically, strike out totals tend to equalize as pitchers ascend in the system and encounter more polished competition. Therefore you will witness strikeout rates leveling out or even decreasing. As is the case with Yohan Pino. In 2006, Yohan Pino had a 26.3% strike out rate while in the Midwest League. In the following season split between high-A Ft Myers and double-A New Britain, Pino's strike out rate dropped to 22%. 22% is extremely studly so it goes to show that no matter how strong the prospect is, there still can be incremental drops.

There will undoubtedly be inherent flaws when judging prospects by one piece of the puzzle. This, however, highlights some aspects of one very necessary component of reaching the major league level: making bats miss.

This is not a complete assessment of the organization's pitching talent. Because of the minimum 200 batters faced, Jeff Manship, the pitcher who led the Twins minor leagues in strikeouts in 2007 (136), is excluded from this study (for reference, he had a 22.5% strike out rate). Additionally, a prospect whose strike out rate stays consistent throughout the minor league development is still a solid prospect so long as the strike out rate is about 17% or better as they progress.

Between 2006 and 2007, the Twins have had several of their prospects make significant inward adjustments in their mastery of the strike zone:

5) Kyle Waldrop - 13.1% in 2006/13.6% in 2007 - increase of 0.5%

Yes, it is a small incremental change but a positive change, nonetheless, and made in a season where he split two levels: high-A to double-A. Waldrop was drafted by the Twins in the 1st round (25th overall) out of Farragut High School In Knoxville, Tennessee. The Twins gave him a million dollar signing bonus to stay away from college.

“[T]hat definitely made me open up my eyes a little bit bigger,” Waldrop told his former high school's newspaper in 2004. “If they’re going to invest that much money in you, they’re going to give you every shot to make the major leagues. Being that twenty-fifth pick, they’re not going to give up on you as easily as they might if you’re a (30th)-round pick they give $5,000 to.”

In his first professional season at 18, Waldrop spent time in the Gulf Coast League and Elizabethon where he went 5-2 in 11 starts with a 2.14 era in addition to 55 strike outs in 62 innings. At the end of 2004, Baseball America had him ranked as the 6th overall prospect in the organization. The Twins moved him up to Beloit in the Midwest League in 2005 and he faltered as a 19-year-old, finishing 6-11 with a high 4.98 era. In 2006, he regain his prospect form as indicated by a 9-5 record with a 3.77 era shared between Beloit and Ft Myers. It was at those two stops that Waldrop struck out 13.1% (87 k's) of his total batters faced. Last season, Waldrop started the season 7-5 at Ft Myers in a performance that earned him a promotion to double-A New Britain where he finished 3-6 in 11 starts. While pitching at two higher levels, Waldrop improved his strike out rate to 13.6% (90 k's). In this August 2007 video of Kyle pitching against the Brevard County Manatees (Brewers), you will notice that Waldrop has a fairly short stride for his 6'5" frame. Still, you can't argue against results: he struck out 3 Manatees and allowed only 4 hits and 1 run in 7 innings of work.

His stock has slide greatly in the organization, from at one point being the 6th overall prospect in the BA rankings to not even being a blip on the top 20 for Sickel's list. Even though his 10-11 record in 2007 doesn't look great, he has proven that he has good control (90 strike outs to 43 walks), and if in 2008 he keeps the ball in the park (7.0% HR/FB at double-A) the Twins will still have a million reasons to keep moving him up in the organization.

4)Anthony Swarzak - 21.4% in 2006/22.3% in 2007 - increase of 0.9%

This image is from unknown origins but I think you can get that general idea: Swarzak is one hell of a power pitcher. He shows good balance and torque as he drive the his front hip towards home plate and swings that back leg hard. If you need further evidence, here is a youtube clip of him from May 26th, 2007. The Twins' second round pick in 2004, Swarzak began in the GCL where he struck out 42 in 48 innings of work. Like Waldrop, Swarzak was also ranked in the top ten following the 2004 (as the Twins 7th overall prospect, one behind Kyle). He was then elevated in the next season to Beloit (where he was a Midwest League all-star) and then to Ft Myers where he compiled a 12-9 record with a 3.89 era and 156 strike outs in 150.1 innings of work (24.2% k%). 2006 was more of the same dominance of the Florida State League. Swarzak struck out 21.4% of batters faced and finished 11-7 while leading the league in strike outs (131). In early 2007, Swarzak was cited for drug use (non-PED if that matters) by the league and was suspended for 50-games. Losing those two months might have been costly for some prospects. Swarzak had a shakey start to his introduction to double-A New Britain where in April he opened up with an 11.11 era. In June he was sent back to Ft Myers to work out a few kinks, probably attributed to his suspension. He finished strong in the waning months of the season as he was recalled to the Eastern League and finished with a 22.3% strike out rate shared between New Britain and Ft Myers.

The debate rages regarding Swarzak: John Sickels calls Swarzak the number 2 prospect for the Twins moving into 2008 (now Waldrop doesn't even crack the top 20), locally, a Twinkie Town survey declared him the top prospect in the system ahead of Tyler Robertson. It is almost a guarantee that Swarzak will get a crack at the rotation in 2009 if he starts out strong in 2008.

3) Tyler Robertson - 25.2% in 2006/29.2% in 2007 - increase of 4%

Robertson is the 20-year-old left-hander that John Sickels anointed as the club's number 1 prospect, to some chagrin. Sickels went so far as to write a diatribe defending his choice. Allegedly, the source of this malcontent is "the mixed scouting reports. Baseball America says his fastball was just 87-90 last year. He threw 90-92 in high school. Midwest League observers I spoke with say he was anywhere in the 88-92 range last year, which makes the BA numbers sound a bit pessimistic; I guess our sources are a bit different. He has good breaking stuff and throws strikes. The main bugaboo for scouts is his delivery, which is stiff, looks funny, and gives rise to fear about injuries. He's smoothed it out a bit, but given that he repeats it well, is his injury risk really any higher than it is for any other pitcher his age? I'm not convinced of that."

In the Gulf Coast League, Robertson torched batters at a 25.2% rate. His era was high (4.25) but in context to his FIP (2.81) you can obviously see he was pitching much better than that indicated. If there were any doubters, Robertson moved up to low-A Beloit and improved his strike out rate to 29.2%. Any way you slice it, 123 strike outs in 102.1 innings in the Midwest League is fantastic (even better for a 19-year-old).

I tend to believe that the reason most analysts are leary of giving him the number 1 status (as evidence by the Twinkie Town poll) is that he hasn't played at a higher level. It is easier to hedge your bet on a pitcher that has ascended through the ranks, performed at an elite level and remained injury-free. So far, that is all that Robertson has done, to the extent of what has been asked of him. It is not his fault that the scouting director has not asked him to throw innings at New Britain yet. But that day may come as soon as 2008.

2) Brian Duensing - 13.5% in 2006/17.9% in 2007 - increase of 4.4%

This former Cornhusker drafted by the Twins in the third round in 2005 has been been a rising stock in the organization. John Sickels had elected to name Duensing as the 7th best prospect in the Twins organization after a 2007 in which he led the organization innings pitched (167) and wins (15 - tied with Jeff Manship). Baseball America named him the 18th best overall player in the Eastern League. A lefty that had undergone Tommy John his sophomore year at the University of Nebraska, performed well in his first season at Elizabethton finishing with 2.32 era and a 25.5% strike out rate. His 2006 campaign was all about mobility. He was pushed through the Midwest League, Florida State League and finally the Eastern League. When all was said and done, Duensing had a 5-10 record, a 3.51 era and a 1.30 whip. Unfortunately, his strike outs took a sharp decline. He was only able to induce 13.5% of batters faced to strike out (mostly because of a 14.2% k% while in his first stint at double-A).

Upon return to New Britain to begin 2007, Duensing increased his strike out rate to 18.4% (up from 14.2%) and limited walks to 3.2% of plate appearances. This improvement got Duensing raised to Rochester where he struggled somewhat at first, but completed August (20.5% k%) and September (26.9% k%) strong. His 15 victories with New Britain and Rochester was good enough for tops in the Twins minor league system.

He may pitch himself into the rotation come 2008.

1) Brian Bass - 11.6% in 2006/18.9% in 2007 - increase of 7.3%

Back in December, I wrote:

Brian Bass was resigned after the Twins initially granted him free agency. Drafted by the Royals out of high school in Alabama, Bass made his debut in rookie ball as an 18-year-old. As a Royals prospect, Bass spent the next three season bouncing between A and high. In 2004, the then 22-year-old Bass got 9 starts in Double-A Whicita. His performance left something to be desired: facing 180 batters, Bass walked more than he struckout. The Royals were still high on him despite his nagging injuries and frequent dead-arm spells. After splitting time between Double-A Whicita and Triple-A Omaha with mixed results, the Twins picked up Bass with the intention of using him in the bullpen. In 37 games last year, Bass made 10 starts for the Red Wings. Against 424 batters faced, Bass struck out 18.9% of them and walked only 5.2%, a sharp contrast from his days within the Royals organization when he had the weapons but lacked the control. Even more impressive was his ability to produce groundballs (57% GB rate). Bass made 9 starts for the Tigres de Aragua and continued where his Rochester season left off by walking 2 of the 92 batters he faced (2.2%) and striking out 16 of the 92 (17.2%). Of the balls put in play, 68% of them were on the ground. Rotoworld's analysis is that Bass could made a good swingman out of the Twins bullpen and judging from his 2007 numbers, that might be a good fit.

I believe you will see Bass returned to Rochester once the 2008 commences, however, his improvement - coupled with the Royals neglect of a solid pitching prospect - leads me to believe there is a major league appearance in the near future for Bass. It may come out of the bullpen, but it is something. At 26, Bass is getting a little long in the tooth to be considered a prospect.

The Johan Santana Deluge (links edition).

None of this matters yet and we really won't know whether this was a good move or a bad move until several years from now. The sentiment is pretty consistent across the entire media galaxy - mainstream or other - the Twins got swindled. This to me seems like a knee-jerk analysis when it comes to this transaction because one club just traded away the best pitcher on the planet (ibid) for four prospects that weren't on your average fan's radar. What's more is that the reactions on Wednesday would have still been the same had the Twins swapped for Ellsbury, Hughes or Martinez. The fact of the matter is everyone will question if you got enough in return for the best pitcher on the planet (ibid).

Did Bill Smith stall too long, blink too quickly and fold? Here's what the others are saying:

• Keith Law is lauding Mets GM Omar Minaya for holding on to his two best prospects, Fernando Martinez and Mike Pelfrey. Bill Smith, however, took a bit of a lashing:

In the abstract, it's hard to accept dealing your marquee player and top trading asset without getting your partner's top young player in return, and that's what the Twins did. They did get back significant economic value in four young players, each of whom has under one year of big-league service and two of whom aren't even on the Mets' 40-man roster yet, so the Twins will have each of them under control for six full years of service. That return in exchange for just one year of Santana's services is reasonable. But premium players should fetch premium prices, because there's value to a club in having so much production coming from a single roster spot. And in this case, Minnesota GM Bill Smith did not get a premium prospect in return.

• Joe Posnanski details the nature of uncertainty regarding prospects and the inability, even for industry insiders, to agree on whether or not these are solid prospects.

But I think there’s something else — baseball is a brutally hard game to predict. And I think this trade proves it. Here you have a major trade involving five players, all with some sort of professional track record, and the opinions about it (again, just from the people I know) are all over the map. I would say there’s a bigger consensus among fans (and I include myself here) — most of think this was a pretty sorry trade for the Twins; based on reports, they might have gotten Jacoby Ellsbury or Joba Chamberlain or some other bigger name prospect. Of course, you never know about reports.

But here’s the thing: If Gomez develops as some think he will — Moises Alou — then he alone could make this a winning trade for the Twins. Remember, they only had one year of Santana left. If on top of that they get some help from those arms, if Guerra turns into a Francisco Liriano, if Mulvey or Humber win 15 in the next couple of years, then it could be a Twins steal, a franchise-making move. I don’t think that’s going to happen, but what do I know? What does anyone know? That’s why it’s a great game. Albert Pujols was drafted in the 13th round. Nobody knows nothing.

• Jim Callis at Baseball America is completely befuddled. It would seem that when it comes to these trade parameters, the Twins obtained no prospect that is even flirting with certainty.

Minnesota might be better off if those talks collapse, giving new Twins GM Bill Smith a chance to find a better return for Santana. While he’s going to command possibly the richest contract ever given to a pitcher, Santana is the best pitcher in the game. And Smith didn’t get enough for him.

Guerra (No. 2), Gomez (No. 3), Mulvey (No. 4) and Humber (No. 7) all ranked prominently on our Mets Top 10 Prospects list. But there’s simply too much risk involved in this deal for Minnesota.

• The Hardball Times contributors weighed in on the deal. The consensus seems to be that the Mets are the victors. Bryan Tsao is places the blame square on Billy Smith's shoulders, however Chris Constancio defended the choice by saying that the package of prospects will indeed pan out in the Twins's favor:

Bryan Tsao: I don't think you can let Twins general manager Bill Smith off the hook here. While it seems the Yankees and Red Sox weren't willing to deliver an acceptable package at this late date, I suspect that the Yankees' interest—and by extension Boston's—waned when potential replacement options in center field (guys like Torii Hunter or Mike Cameron) and in the back end of the rotation started to go off the market.

In the abstract it makes sense for a high payroll team like the Yankees to concentrate as much value as possible into as few roster spots as possible (roster spots being more scarce than money), in practice they would have needed to replace the rumored major league talent heading to the Twins for the move to make sense. Smith should have known that the deeper it got into the offseason, the less a deal would make sense to the Yankees.

The window to close a deal was clearly earlier in the offseason, and while Smith did a good job of drumming up interest, he didn't close. Instead, he clearly overplayed his hand here and got burned. He deserves some credit for cutting his losses and taking the best package possible, but his tenure as GM is not off to a promising start.

Chris Constancio: I actually think Humber and Mulvey are "sure things". They both have moderate upside, but both also have major league stuff (low 90s fastballs and at least one above-average breaking pitch), solid control, and are nearly ready for the major leagues. I don't see why one or both couldn't evolve into a useful middle-of-rotation arm in another year or two.

Deolis Guerra and Carlos Gomez are each less of a sure thing, but both are very young and both have very good upside. Gomez was aggressively promoted to Triple-A in 2007, and the toolsy centerfielder held his own at the plate and improved his plate discipline until a hamate bone injury ended his season. There's plenty to like about his skillset, and in many ways he's similar to the much more hyped Jacoby Ellsbury in the Boston organization.

Guerra was the youngest player in full-season baseball in 2006, and he followed that up with a solid showing against much older competition in the Florida State League last year. He improved his control while increasing velocity on his fastball in 2007, and he probably is the Twins best prospect now. They could send the 18-year-old (he doesn't turn 19 in April) to Double-A this year, but they might keep him at Class A and just try to keep him healthy for a full season.

• Last December STATS, Inc did a WHIFF profile breakdown of Johan's three main pitches (fastball, change-up and slider). In 2007, Johan's change-up had a WHIFF rating of .399. In other words, when he threw his change-up, Johan made batters swing-and-miss nearly 40% of the time. The league average on this pitch was .277. My impression is that it wasn't so much the pitches themselves as it was the sequencing of them. There were reports last year that said he was relying more heavily on his fastball then he had in previous seasons.

  Santana's fastball averages 91.9mph, which is very good for a left-handed starter but only a 70th percentile MLB velocity. Yet, the fear of his changeup drips off his fastball WHIFF (.192), which ranks in the 87th percentile. Santana has a deceptive delivery as well, hiding the ball very well as he chicken-wings and shot-puts the ball to home plate. You don't see too many deliveries like Santana's. Besides short arm action, it's not exactly smooth or clean, but there's nothing problematic about his health or performance.

• The same WHIFF profile said that his fastball was .192 - still better than the league average of .142 - but certainly not the dominatingly unhittable pitch as his change-up is. There is an old adage in baseball that says a good change-up adds 5 mph to your fastball. In a way this is true. Santana is having his best games when he is locating his fastball early in the count then peppering the batter with the change-up. Simply having the change-up in his arsenal can wreck havoc on a hitter. Look at this clip of Johan whiffing Jim Thome. It would appear that Thome is trying too hard to keep his wait back in anticipation of that change-up. Instead of the 82.6 mph change-up, Johan feeds him a 91.9 mph letter-high fastball to which Thome reacts tardy.

• Voros McCracken has made note of something that really hasn't been discussed. Pundits like to say that the Twins have been good at analyzing and acquiring prospect talent in the past, only that was Terry Ryan's team and not Bill Smith's team. How do we feel about Smith's judgement to date?

  Now normally I’d give the Twins a ton of leeway when it comes to their evaluation of young talent, as their record the last decade has been impeccable (including a master stroke in trading for Santana in the first place). But those were Terry Ryan’s Twins, and as much as many of the same people are in place, it’s difficult for me to give full credit for the work done under Ryan to the new guy Bill Smith. I don’t despise this trade from the Twins point of view, but I sure don’t like it a lot. One problem is that the Mets system really doesn’t have anything spectacular in terms of prospects and so the Twins got more or less what there was to get. Compared to what the A’s got for Haren and Swisher, this looks pretty skimpy.

• Bob Klapisch breaks down the anatomy of the deal. Sickeningly, he describes a scene during the trade negotiations that had Bill Smith operating "in a panic" and on Monday called the Yankees and told them Hughes was "no longer a prerequisite". And it gets worse. Like the scene in Jerry Maguire where Tom Cruise realizes that he has been ousted by Bob Sugar.

Actually, it was a perfect storm of good fortune for the Mets. Not only did they exploit Smith's weakened bargaining position, but they benefited from the Yankees and Red Sox' synchronized caution. Talk about long shots. Who would've thought the AL East's two powerhouses would become so rational at the same time? Major league executives say Smith will rue the day he chose not to jump on the Yankees' offer of Hughes, Cabrera, Class AA right-hander Jeff Marquez and a prospect of their choosing. That was Dec. 2 and all Smith had to do was say yes.

Incredibly, he waffled. Within 24 hours, Pettitte told the Yankees he intended to pitch again in 2008, prompting the team to reconsider the deal for Santana. Suddenly, Hank Steinbrenner started listening to his brother Hal and Cashman, both of whom pleaded their case for financial restraint. Little by little, Hank Steinbrenner's craving for Santana diminished; the longer Smith held out, trying to leverage the Yankees and Red Sox against each other, the closer he came to dooming the best deal he could've made for Santana.