2009 Pitching Appraisal: Carl Pavano

  

C. Pavano (33 Starts)
FIP | MLB Rank	4.00*	40th*
BABIP | +/- MLB Avg	.330	+10.0%
Runs Support | +/- MLB Avg	6.13	+27.1%
GAME SCORES	Decisions	No-Decisions
Game Score 50 or Greater:	11-3	3-1
Game Score 49 or Lower:	3-9	2-1
Average Game Score Per Start:	47
Season High/Low:	85 (6/5)	3 (4/9)
Game Scores over 90:	0
Game Scores 80-89:	1
Game Scores 70-79:	1
Game Scores 60-69:	7
Game Scores Below 40:	9
Record of Opposing Batters:	.294/.329/.466 (795 OPS)
Offensive Equivalent:	Miguel Tejada

*NOTE: FIP not xFIP

 

Back when the Twins first acquired Carl Pavano, I detailed why this move was actually much better than it looked on the surface.  Pavano was a victim of a bad defense and a high portion of balls falling in uncovered areas of the field.  At the same time, he demonstrated the ability to throw consistently in the zone and miss bats.  Still, his arrival was met with skepticism due to a hefty home run allowed (1.36 HR/9 comparative to the average of 1.05) and bloated ERA (5.37).    

 

After relocating to the 612, Pavano finished the year 5-4 with a 4.44 ERA and an improved 7.21 K/9 in 12 starts.  In spite of converting fewer batted balls into outs in Minnesota (a .668 DER versus .673 in Cleveland), Pavano managed to pitch better (3.50 FIP versus 4.28 FIP in Cleveland).

 

Pavano made strides to improve his efforts against right-handed hitters – an inexplicable split mystery.  After beginning the year in upper Ohio being splattered by same-sided opponents, allowing 13 of his 19 home runs along with an eye-popping .547 slugging percentage against to righties, Pavano avoided major damage with the Twins.  One of his biggest overall differences upon the migration was his increased use of his slider to righties: 

 

Vs RHB	Slider Pct	Slider WHIFF Avg	Overall K%	Overall Slugging Pct
Cleveland	17	.320	12.1	.547
Minnesota	30	.315	15.3	.432

 

Whether this was a self-imposed correction or something Rick Anderson picked up, Pavano’s final months against righties were drastically better than his first few.

 

At 33 years old, Pavano’s stuff was not exactly electric – he was bringing the fastball at a pedestrian 90.4 miles per hour – but he worked ahead of hitters (his 67.7 percent first pitch strike led all of baseball) which provided the luxury of turning to his nasty breaking stuff in his slider, curve and splitter (those three had a combined WHIFF average of .304).  In addition to the pitches with hard break action, Pavano also had an above-average change – one that he threw for a strike 75 percent of the time and had opposing hitters chase nearly half of those offerings out of the zone. 

 

He has pitched well enough to earn a well-deserved raise, the question for the Twins, is it one that will price him out of the running for the rotation in 2010?  With his history of injury, age and the crooked-looking ERA, Pavano may not get anything more than two-years in the range of $5-to-$9 million per depending on how the free agent market unfolds.