2009 Pitcher Appraisal: Glen Perkins

G. PERKINS (17 Starts)
xFIP | MLB Rank	5.07	DNQ
BABIP | +/- MLB Avg	.321	+7.0%
Runs Support | +/- MLB Avg	4.40	-4.7%
GAME SCORES	Decisions	No-Decisions
Game Score Greater Than 50:	5-1	1-0
Game Score Less Than 50:	1-6	1-2
Average Game Score Per Start:	43
Season High/Low:	73 (4/9)	5 (8/2)
Game Scores over 90:	0
Game Scores 80-89:	0
Game Scores 70-79:	2
Game Scores 60-69:	2
Game Scores Below 40:	7
Record of Opposing Batters:	.304/.341/.463 (803 OPS)
Offensive Equivalent:	Shane Victorino

Glen Perkins’s 2009 season peaked on April 19^th following his third start of the year.  Accounting for the fact that MLB’s schedule runs through October, this story does not have a happy ending.  Up until that point the lefty had tossed 24 innings, allowing only four runs on 16 hits and maintaining a tidy .188 batting average against.  Then everything he threw was sprayed all over the field.  Post-April 20^th Perkins worked 71.1 innings in 15 games, allowing 60 runs on 103 hits (13 of which were home runs), and went on to finish the season buried in Rochester on a rehab assignment.

His 6-7 record in 2009 should not surprise anyone when you note that Perkins was coming off a 12-win 2008 season that was inflated by an astronomical amount of runs scored on his behalf.  Perkins went 4-4 in starts where his Game Score was less than 50 but finished 1-6 in 2009 under the same circumstances. When the cavalry supplied less than league average support in 2009, it was apparent that his low Game Scores would not continue to provide him with victories.

Are there any takeaways that suggest Perkins can rebound from an ugly season in 2010?  Certainly.  Look at his batting average in play on groundballs.  It reads .327.  Meanwhile, the league average in this area was .240.  It stands to reason that approximately 10 of Perkins’s 55 hits on the ground bleed through or found unguarded seams.  These sorts of results do not last forever; eventually they find a fielder’s glove.  Because his balls-in-play tendencies shifted from an aerial pitcher to chiefly a groundball pitcher (from 38% in ’08 to 47% in ‘09), Perkins could be inline for a Plexiglas effect in 2010, if this trend continues.   That isn’t to say his overall woes won’t continue.  Outside of just three other starters with a minimum of 90 innings pitched, Perkins held the lowest K/9 (4.20) while not figuring out a way to subdue left-handed opponents (.878 OPS) and getting lit up while pitching from the stretch (.962 OPS men on vs. .687 OPS empty).  Without solving these three issues it is hard to believe shaving off 10 groundball hits a year will Cy Young-ify him.

Then there were the issues with management.

Including not revealing an injury which repositioned him in the manager’s doghouse and sparking some internal controversy when Perkins’ agent filed a grievance with the players’ association stating the Twins intentionally held him in the minor leagues to avoid increasing his service time, there is plenty of speculation circulating that Perkins’ name could be on the forefront of any potential trades this offseason.  Then again, Perkins’ stock is not high enough to wrangle in anything of substantial value without including at least one prospect.