Little About Matt Macri

In the Phoenix Desert Dogs first fourteen games, Matt Macri has been establishing himself in the Arizona Fall League (with a decent .283/.313/.522 line with 2 HRs in 46 at-bats) and could emerge as a strong candidate for the Twins third base spot. Macri as you might recall was the last Terry Ryan minor league acquistion of his GM tenure and came to the Twins from the Colorado Rockies in exchange for Ramon Ortiz. If he finishes the fall league as well as he starts coupled with a strong spring showing, we may have a genuine third base controversy on our hands.

According to Baseball America on August 16th, 2007 the Twins had finally grown tire of Ortiz's 5.14 ERA over 91 innings both starting and relief and were looking to rid themselves of responsibility of his $3.1 million contract. The Rockies were in desparation after their rotation had succumbed to numerous injuries to Aaron Cook, Jason Hirsh and Rodrigo Lopez. Colorado offered Matt Macri who was currently in Triple-A Colorado Springs after spending the majority of the 2007 season in Double-A Tulsa and was in the middle of a rebound season after posting Matt Moses-like numbers (.232/.293/.370) the previous season at the same level. Dethroned of his prospect status following his first year in 2004, the now 25-year-old Macri was hitting .298/.349/.502 in 79 games from the Tulsa Drillers and recieved a promotion to the Triple AAA affiliate.

Born and bred in Iowa, the 6'2", 200-pound Macri was, prior to being drafted by the Rockies in 2004, the Twins original 2001 17th round draft choice. He instead opted to go to Notre Dame where the right-handed batting Macri hit .367/.465/.667 in his final season with the Irish. Placed in Tri-City in the low-A Northwest League following his 5th round selection by the Rockies in 2004, Macri played third and hit well finishing the season with .333/.410/.569. Following this season, the Rockies organization began to play musical positions with him. In response to the logjam at third where the Rockies were blessed to have two outstanding candidates ahead of Macri in Ian Stewart and Garrett Atkins, Macri began 2005 in High-A Modesto in the California as a shortstop. In the hitter's league that is the California League, Macri saw his numbers fall slightly (.283/.381/.443). The Rockies continued to move Macri up in the organization even if they had no real idea where on the diamond he would be most beneficial. In his first full-season in Double-A Tulsa, the Rockies shifted him yet again to 2B where he posted his lowest totals of his career (.232/.293/.370). Assuming that it must be all the defensive tampering effecting his bat, at the beginning of 2007 the Rockies reinstated Macri as the Drillers third baseman and he rewarded them with a blazing start (.298/.349/.502 with 11 HRs in 275 at-bats) and recieved a promotion to Colorado Springs.

His decline obviously troubled the braintrust of the Rockies even though taken in its entirety his stats never indicated that there was a reason to hit the panic button on him. His peripheral numbers were almost identical over those three season:

	ABs	Hits	HRs	BB	K	AVG.	OBP.	SLG.
2004	195	65	7	23	52	.333	.404	.569
2005	247	69	7	34	67	.279	.379	.437
2006	288	67	8	22	66	.233	.294	.372
2007	331	98	15	23	71	.296	.345	.511

It was not as if Marci suffered from an increased amount of strikeouts or suddenly becoming impatient while at the plate when jumping levels by being overmatched. His 2006 season appears to be a case where his BABIP dipped well below his norm and that the 2006 Macri was actually the anomally. In 2005 for Modesto his BABIP was .365, a well inflated number, while the following year his .276 BABIP skewed the opposite end of the spectrum while with the Tulsa Drillers. This suggests that it had nothing to do with technique rather that Macri was the benefactor of both good and bad luck.

A franchise like the Minnesota Twins who lacks the depth in the system at third base certainly could use all the talent they can accumulate at the position (Buscher, Moses, Macri) while the Rockies certainly had enough prospects to merit trading Macri. As the years progress, I believe we will witness in Matt Macri yet another Terry Ryan project in the same caliber of a Jason Bartlett or Alexi Casilla where one team devalued a prospect and was willing to concede that player for a deshelved veteran. Admittedly Macri, like Bartlett or Casilla, may never reach superstardom but could provide the Twins as a serviceable third baseman who has the potential to hit 15-20 home runs and flirt with .300.

Fall League Update #1

Twins prospects through 15 games of the AZL season for the Phoenix Desert Dogs:

Hitters

Player	Games	At-Bats	HR	K	BB	AVG.	OBP	SLG.	OPS
Matt Macri	15	50	2	10	2	.320	.346	.540	.886
Trevor Plouffe	10	27	0	11	4	.270	.341	.378	.720
Drew Butera	6	15	0	2	1	.200	.250	.267	.517

Pitchers

Player	Game	Innings	ER	K	BB	ERA	WHIP
Anthony Swarzak	4	10.0	2	6	3	1.80	1.20
Nick Blackburn	3	9.0	3	8	2	3.00	0.89
Eduardo Morlan	6	7.1	0	2	4	0.00	1.36

Twins prospects through 12 games of the Venezuelan season for the Tigres de Aragua:

Hitters

Player	Games	At-Bats	HR	K	BB	AVG.	OBP	SLG.	OPS
Brian Buscher	11	40	1	5	6	.275	.370	.400	.770

Pitchers

Player	Game	Innings	ER	K	BB	ERA	WHIP
Yohan Pino	5	7.1	3	4	2	3.68	1.23
Bobby Korecky	3	4.0	0	2	2	0.00	1.00
Jose Mijares	9	4.0	2	5	0	4.50	1.25

The Case For Kevin Mench

While reviewing the 2007 season’s numbers and trying to draw a conclusion on what went wrong, as I am wont to do after the season ends, a fan can clearly identify the problem spots and conjure up numerous solutions. The local media has blamed a multitude of problems such as a downgrade of performance from the previous season (Punto), key injuries (Reyes, Crain, Mauer) or under performance (White). One glaring deficiency that plague the 2007 season was the inability to hit left-handed pitching. Outside of the anemic (but powerful) Chicago White Sox line up, Minnesota had the worst offensive production against left-handers in the Central.

Vs, Lefties	AB	HRs	AVG.	OBP.	SLG.	OPS.	Runs	Production %*
Minnesota	1614	28	.263	.326	.385	.711	191	11.63%
Chicago	1476	58	.242	.321	.410	.731	181	12.26%
Detroit	1349	44	.292	.352	.477	.828	220	16.30%
Cleveland	1641	59	.274	.357	.441	.797	242	14.74%
Kansas City	1546	32	.266	.330	.400	.730	210	13.58%

* Runs/At Bats.

The problem for 2008 is the possible loss of Torii Hunter who was one of the few in the lineup that had a successful split against left-handed pitching.

Hunter	AB	HRs	AVG.	OBP.	SLG.	OPS.	HR%	K%
2007	168	10	.310	.352	.548	.900	5.9%	14.3%
2004-2006	423	22	.286	.345	.515	.860	5.2%	19.3%

Reports suggest that Hunter is requesting a 5-year, $75 million a year contract and judging from his 2007 numbers vs. left-handed pitching, he is likely to command that salary on an open market (but not to overlook his ability to hit right-handed pitching and gold glove defense). It seems apparent that the organization lacks viable in-house candidates to replace the loss of production. A franchise on a tight budget that needs to increase production against left-handed pitching (at a fraction of the total cost it would take to retain other free agents) might look into acquiring Kevin Mench.

According to a recent Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel article (“2007 Review: The Brewers jumped off to a great start in 2007 but in the end, their season came tumbling down” October 2^nd, 2007), the Brewers are rumored to be considering releasing Mench due to their overstocked outfield of prospects. Past rumors indicate that the Twins had interest in Mench while as a Ranger and at the trade deadline last year while with Milwaukee.

Mench’s numbers in 2007 are indicative of a bat that has power and can hit for average against lefties. What’s more is that his number prior to 2007 (2004 – 2006) indicate that Mench is consistent as well:

Mench	AB	HRs	AVG.	OBP.	SLG.	OPS.	HR%	K%
2007	155	8	.316	.345	.561	.906	5.16%	6.5%
2004-2006	388	23	.307	.379	.590	.969	5.92%	6.1%

While a pessimist might suggest that Hunter’s 2007 numbers are an anomaly compared to the prior three seasons thereby taking that into consideration when approaching long-term contract negotiations, Mench’s 2007 numbers are slightly below what he has previously recorded between 2004 and 2006 (which would also seem to be good leverage in contract negotiations). In fact the numbers indicate that any organization would be hard pressed to find anyone in the past four seasons that has had as much success as Mench has had versus lefties and could be obtained below “market value”. (With the exception of Jonny Gomes who might be acquired from the Devil Rays for a prospect but is prone to striking out highlighted by his 30.3% strikeout percentage). Highlighted by a high home run percentage (hitting a home run in 5.16% of his at-bats in 2007 against lefties) but also by the ability to not strike out, the remarkable thing is that Mench is a power-hitter that has a solid contact rate. While Hunter struck out in 24 of his 165 at-bats against lefties in 2007, Mench was fooled in only 10 in 155.

Compared to other right-handed power-hitters that will be available either by free agency or a potential trade target, Mench also stands out as someone who hit for power, average, contact, and will most likely commanded the least amount of salary and has a history of avoiding the DL.

2004-2006	AB	HRs	AVG.	OBP.	SLG.	OPS.	HR%	K%
Sweeney	306	12	.255	.330	.441	.771	3.9%	13.3%
Piazza	285	12	.309	.382	.502	.884	4.2%	15.0%
Gomes	211	13	.284	.406	.540	.946	6.1%	30.8%

It goes without saying that Mench’s bat does not replace the gold-glove caliber defense that Torii can bring to an outfield or his ticket sales significance as a fan favorite. Signing/acquiring Mench would still require either a stop-gap centerfielder free agent (see: Lofton, Patterson, Erstad) or a costly tier one centerfielder (see: Cameron and Rowand) to replace Hunter. However, even if Hunter is retained (against all odds), as a powerful right-handed bat that could possibly be signed for the price of a Rondell White ($3 to $5 million) Mench would certainly be a useful weapon in the arsenal for Gardenhire to pencil in as a DH, a platoon partner with Jason Kubel in left field or a late-inning pitch-hitter against the league’s formidable left-handers (see: Sabathia, Lee, Jenks, Danks, Buerhle).