Brian Duensing needs to get right against the right

Brian Duensing entered last night’s start owning the third-highest WHIP against right-handed batters (1.63) – only surpassed by San Francisco’s Jonathan Sanchez (1.64) and Detroit’s Phil Coke (1.77) – in 2011.

This is not any accident of sample size either - including last season the Twins’ left-hander has the fourth-highest WHIP versus righties among qualified starters. It is an amazing contrast considering he has managed to compile some impressive numbers against his southpawed brethren. Since 2010 he has a baseball-best 0.81 WHIP with the fourth-lowest .187 batting average when facing same-sided opponents.

When facing lefties, Duensing’s approach is to work the fastball in on the hands and then unleash his sharp slider off the plate down-and-away. Lefties have found this extremely difficult to hit hard – if they make contact at all - beating the ball into the ground 52% of the time in 2011. This means very few extra base hits. Pepper in his ability to get them to chase the running slider and it equates to one bad mamma-jamma.

Of course, the world is dominated by the right-handed and Duensing has certainly played the role of the submissive this season.

His plan of attack against righties seems strikingly similar but for his secondary pitches. In terms of his fastball, Duensing targets the outer-half of the plate. Rather than using his slider like he does for lefties, he favors his change-up instead. Because he prefers to use a backdrop slider – locating the pitch on the outer-half of the plate to righties – the offering sees less horizontal movement. This gives righties a better opportunity to make contact. The changeup, while effective, is not nearly the same swing-and-miss pitch that the slider is. Hence, in order to be successful Duensing needs to work down in the zone and get grounders.

He did that quite well last year, as you will see in the chart below, but the Twins starter is not achieving the same results on batted balls as he did in 2010. Rather than the high amount of grass-killers, hitters are squaring up on his pitches more, hitting them for ropes around the ballpark:

Duensing’s Batted Ball Distribution vs Right-Handers
	Line Drive%	Groundball%	Flyball%
2010	15.7	52.8	31.5
2011	20.8	40.5	38.7

Using mostly his fastball, he leaves the ball up in the zone far too frequently, even more so than last season:

There is a stark discrepancy between the location of his fastball to right-handers between this year and the last. In 2010 (on the right) Duensing was able to keep his down in the zone – a more difficult spot for righties to hit solidly. This season more and more of his fastballs have been up and over the plate – a much easier place to drive the ball.

That alone is likely reason enough to explain the significant drop in his groundball rate against righties. However, let’s factor in the placement of his most frequently used secondary pitch: the changeup.

While Duensing’s primary pitch to right-handers is his fastball, he mixes in a changeup to keep them off-balanced. Last season, he was far more prone to throwing his change down in the zone, getting weaker contact and likely inciting more hitters to turn over on the pitch. This season, similar to his fastball, the changeup has been up and over the plate. This means opponents would have a greater tendency to drive the ball.  

It was suspected that Duensing would find himself scuffling against the righties and witness regression. On the other hand, one had to wonder if he did have some of those rare intangibles (aggressiveness in the zone, efficient, bulldog-like battle tendencies) that continue to outperform where his peripherals would suggest he should be at. Unfortunately, it has been more of the former and less of the latter in 2011.

With Kevin Slowey putting together a string of good starts in Rochester, fans are beginning to clamor for change in the rotation. With a large deficiency in the standings to overcome, management cannot turn a blind eye to the struggles it much longer. While Nick Blackburn is likely the first candidate to be removed from the rotation, Duensing can’t be far behind. If he wants to remain in the rotation, he needs to keep the ball down in the zone against righties.

Easier said than done.

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Reminder: DiamondCentric is selecting two more winners for the 1991 World Series DVD collector’s set and a Game Six t-shirt today and tomorrow. Head over the Facebook page, “like” the status and consider yourself entered.

1991 World Series DVD/T-shirt Giveaway

My Dad worked as an engineer for the Burlington Northern railroad, running trains between the Twin Cities and Fargo, North Dakota. Because of this, he often worked odd hours – a few days on and a few days off. While I was growing up, on the days he was scheduled to make a trip north, he would set the VCR to tape (yes, tape) the local sporting events. We had numerous tapes of miscellaneous Twins, Vikings and even North Star games. 

Over the years, most of those copies were recorded over because of Cheers and Seinfeld finales. However, I was able to rescue one for the clutches of oblivion: The Game Seven of the 1987 World Series.

The ’87 World Series was special. Even as a first grader, we had the sense that it was an important moment. Having attended a catholic school, we were forced to wear uncomfortable uniforms that seemed like they were made entirely out of corduroy. When October rolled around, we were told we were free to wear whatever we wanted, provided it was Twins gear (nuns love baseball). For that stretch of time, our parents allowed to stay up late, watching the ends of the games that stretch past our bedtimes. When they scheduled the parade downtown, we were exempt from school, joining the rest of what felt like the world in the downtown canyon cheering on the players as they drove by in their convertibles. We high-fived random strangers in the street.  

Still, being just shy of seven years old, I never fully had a gauge on how the game actually went. You can see by the box score that it was fairly close but you don’t get the ebb-and-flow of how the game progressed like watching it unfold. That’s why I There were several missed calls that went in the Twins favor. There was hard-nosed plays at the plate – like Gary Gaetti pancaking Cards backup catcher Steve Lake who somehow held on to the ball. There was Frankie Viola cutting down the St. Louis offense with the aid of his changeup. This is why it has been one of my most cherished possessions – it has given me context to what I could not remember as a child.

The Game Seven ’87 tape has traveled with me to college and has made the move to every subsequent dwelling (and I moved a lot), receiving almost the same treatment as the Stanley Cup has. But, even with the delicate handling, the tape still wore down from use and age. So I had it converted to DVD this past spring. Prior to the season, I fired up the game once again to relive one of the most memorable games in Twins history.

While the ’87 series was special, it cannot compete with how the 1991 World Series influenced my views on baseball and life.

For me, a 30-year-old, and others near my age group, the 1991 series could not have happened at a more impressionable time in life. At 10 years old, you start to absorb everything around you. It is the age right before puberty – the stage when a human’s brain goes coo-coo haywire until their late 20s. The memories you form at 10 seem to be less jaded than everything else that comes right after it. For Upper Midwestern children around my age, we were taught valuable life lessons. Game Seven starter, Jack Morris, taught us how to be men. You simply take the ball inning after inning and not let go unless manager Tom Kelly is forced to remove it from your cold, dead hand. Kent Hrbek taught us that – in some respects – cheating is okay, so long as you do it with flair. Kirby Puckett reaffirmed our childlike belief that heroes can indeed come through and save the day at the last minute.

It is hard to believe those memories were formed 20 years ago.

With this in mind, A&E is releasing a pair of DVD sets to commemorate the 20^th anniversary of Minnesota’s second championship. In efforts to market virally, they have contacted various Twins bloggers and have extended giveaways of these DVDs. This is one more location in which you can possibly win Magic in Minnesota: Remembering the 1991 World Series Championship and The Minnesota Twins 1991 World Series Collector’s Edition. In addition to the DVDs, winners will also receive a Game Six shirt from DiamondCentric.

In order to qualify, head to the DiamondCentric Facebook page and “like” this link and we will select three winners at random. 

Will no move be a good move for the Twins?

Although the Denard Span-for-Drew Storen talks dominated the weekend, ultimately, like so many other deadline deals, nothing came to fruition.

For the most part, standing pat is a good thing. The Twins will keep their affordable center fielder/lead-off hitter as Span should give the lineup a much needed injection of vitamins O, B and P when he arrives on Tuesday in Anaheim. On the other hand, the front office missed an opportunity to buttress their bullpen with right-handed relievers.  

Part of the reason why Bill Smith left the swap meet without anything was because the market had a substantial markup on relievers. Arms like Koji Uehara, Mike Adams and Brad Ziegler were moved at fairly substantial costs. It is hard to envision the organization making a significant package for pitchers they would control for two years at most.

The Rangers traded a starting pitcher, Tommy Hunter, along with the powerful Chris Davis to obtain Uehara. Later in the day, the Rangers moved their fourth-ranked prospect by Baseball America, pitching Robbie Erlin, along with Frisco (AA) teammate Joe Wieland, to the Padres for Adams. Likewise, the A’s moved Ziegler – a player whom was supposedly not going to require a king’s ransom to acquire – and landed the slugging Brandon Allen and the left-handed reliever, Jordan Norberto.   

The Star Tribune’s Joe Christensen said that the front office called the Blue Jays and sought ex-Twin Jon Rauch, however, that deal never progressed. Given the fact that the Jays had just moved both Jason Frasor as well as Octavio Dotel in addition to the going rate of relief help, Toronto was likely seeking a sizeable return for Rauch.  

So the Twins exited the non-waiver portion of the trade deadline without addressing what might be their biggest area of need. Smith agreed that the emphasis of the day was trying to find help for the bullpen but was not overly concerned:

"That's been a target. We've been trying to add a piece or two in that bullpen that can help stabilize things, a little bit more experience, and unfortunately so far we haven't been able to do it. But again, the next phase of this starts this week with the waivers, and we'll be ready for that."

While Smith and company’s overall trade track record is spotty at best, they have been successful at bringing in help through the waiver wires. They originally grabbed Rauch in 2009 from the Arizona Diamondbacks and traded Kevin Mulvey for him. This past season they claimed the left-handed Brian Fuentes and flipped Loek Van Mil to Anaheim.

One thing to keep in mind is that from now until the August 31 waiver deadline, the Twins have 15 games against AL Central opponents – including nine against the Tigers and Indians. There is plenty of room to gain or lose ground within the next 31 days. If the team is able to make strides, the opportunity to add a bullpen arm still exists as teams like Oakland, Toronto and Tampa Bay will start funneling players through the waiver system.

Clearly, talent acquisition can be had post-July 31 and it is usually less expensive. But what happens if the Twins shit the bed completely in that time?

Selling is a bit more of a tricky proposition at the waiver deadline. Say the Twins manage to go 0-for-9 in those games, burying them deep in the bottom of the standings. They could send guys like Delmon Young, Jason Kubel, Carl Pavano or even Michael Cuddyer through the waivers. If or when a team claims them, the front office now is forced to negotiate within a 24-hour window with just one party instead of multiple teams. Suddenly, the return for the player has been decreased. If you look back at Baseball America’s Trade Central – dating back to 2004 – Jason Bay, then in AAA with the Padres, is about the only noteworthy return. In that sense the front office is gambling heavily that this below-.500 team is a legitimate contender.

Overall, the Twins did not improve their team at the deadline. At the same time, they didn’t hurt it either. Span and Justin Morneau should be returning in the next few weeks giving the offense a boost. They hung on to Kevin Slowey who could be rotation insurance or even a temporary right-handed arm out of the bullpen until someone else can be found.

All in all, the deadline silence is a reaffirmation that the club believes it can win the AL Central with the current assortment of players. 

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Finding relief

The Twins most glaring roster deficiency was exposed late in the game on Thursday night.

With two outs in the bottom of the eighth and the Rangers leading by a run, Josh Hamilton laced a triple that split Ben Revere and Jason Kubel. Due to the overuse of the other arms (Capps, Nathan, Burnett, etc), the left-handed Phil Dumatrait, a minor league free agent that had spent the bulk of the season in Rochester, would be left to face the Rangers right-handed delegates.

Dumatrait quickly fell behind Michael Young – who was two-for-three on the night – and the Twins called a mound conference and made the decision to put Young on first to pitch to the dangerous Nelson Cruz, who was oh-for-the-game. The prevailing logic was that Young was swinging a hot bat while Cruz was ice cold. This would have been the perfect time for Ron Gardenhire to bring in his lights-out, death-to-same-sided-hitters right-hander out of the ‘pen.

The problem is there is no lights-out right-handed reliever.

Alex Burnett has ranged from brutal mess-to-adequate while Anthony Swarzak has been able to chew through multiple innings when need. Neither is ideal during those high leverage innings in the latter third of the game. Matt Capps now serves as the right-handed set-up man but given his heavy usage in the beginning of the season (which may have led to his poor performance) the Twins would be better served curtailing his deployment in the second-half. All three had thrown recently too. This left Dumatrait to battle Cruz.

With the non-waiver trade deadline a little over 48 hours away, let’s take a look at some of the arms the Twins have been associated with and some arms that they are not currently linked to but, for the sake of fiscal responsibility, should be considering:

Drew Storen (WAS):

He has got about everything you could want – youth, a power arm, ability to get a strikeout and club-controlled paychecks for several years. Of course, that doesn’t come cheap. The Nationals have reportedly taken a shine to Denard Span, who himself has an extremely team-friendly contract himself while playing a coveted up-the-middle position, and even Washington has changed their minds on whether or not Storen is on the trading block.  

While other analysts have been giddy over his age, cost control and potential to be the “closer of the future”, I am a bit more apprehensive of his mechanics and what that means for his health. Similar to his rehabbing teammate Stephen Strasberg, Storen also throws with the “inverted w” arm action. As Strasberg’s injury has brought the potential dangers of throwing with an inverted w to the forefront, there has been a laundry list of pitchers who use this method that ultimately wound up with UCL problems.

To be sure, injury potential exists for all pitchers. After all, throwing overhand is against the body’s natural biomechanics. Even guys who have impeccable conventional mechanics like Nick Blackburn and Scott Baker will inevitably having elbow issues. It’s just the nature of pitching. Then there are guys that carry around with them big red flags – like Storen’s arm action. If you are a team that plans to invest heavily in a player by committing one of your best young position players, you would want confidence that his UCL isn’t going to snap in his second year.

Unless the Twins find a way to pry Storen away without surrendering an everyday player like Span or a top prospect, the team would be advised to move along for now.  

Koji Uehara (BAL):

Uehara’s contract and Baltimore’s realistic asking price - the Orioles recognize that his age (36) and injury history tarnish his otherwise excellent resume - has made the Japanese reliever a highly desired target at the deadline.  

In the past two seasons, Uehara has gone all yakuza on opponents. His 8.77 strikeouts-to-walks ratio is second only to Edward Mujica. His 33.5% strikeout rate is the fourth-highest in baseball. His 14.9% swinging strike rate is the fifth-highest. His 0.82 WHIP tops all relievers in that time. This is an impressive track record.

What’s more is that Uehara’s contract would also provide the Twins with some bullpen assistance in 2012. The Orioles gave Uehara an incentive-laden deal which stated if the reliever pitched in 50 games or finished 25, his option for $4 million in ’12 will be triggered. Given the uncertainty with Matt Capps a free agent and Joe Nathan’s expensive option looming, Uehara would give the Twins a financially reasonable bullpen arm that has the potential to close if need be.

Rafael Betancourt (COL):

Like Uehara, Betancourt is a 36-year-old reliever that throws strikes. Betancourt also finds himself right behind Uehara’s 8.77 strikeouts-to-walks ratio with a very good 8.25, the third-highest mark in that category. He shuts down right-handed hitters (20.25 K/BB and .210 average since ’10) which would make him welcomed in the Twins ‘pen, however, unlike Uehara, opponents have an easier time making solid contact leading to a very high 15 home runs allowed (one more than Matt Capps). Part of it is due to playing in the thin Rocky Mountain air but it is a trait that has followed him over from his days in the smog-filled air of Cleveland.

If the Twins trade for Betancourt, he brings along the potential of two additional years as he is owed $4 million next season with a mutual option for $4.25 million in 2013 (that comes with a $25,000 buyout that would likely be exercised).

Matt Lindstrom (COL):

The one-time closer for the Marlins and Astros, the Rockies signed Matt Lindstrom to set-up Huston Street. Armed with a 95-plus mile per hour fastball complemented by a slider, you expect Lindstrom to be a strikeout artist but his K-rate is below the league average. He has a herky-jerky motion which disrupts timing but that fastball comes in extremely straight. On the plus side, Lindstrom has allowed just one home run despite playing in Colorado.  It’s possible that if the Twins were to acquire him, they may be able transform him just like they did Jesse Crain.

He’s younger than the aforementioned Uehara and Betancourt and also signed for multiple seasons. Lindstrom’s contract calls for $3.6 million in 2012 and an option for $4 million in 2013 which may be overpaying for that “proven” label.

Wilton Lopez (HOU):

The Astros grabbed Lopez in a waiver claim from San Diego and have received more than the minimal price they paid to obtain him back in 2009. The 26-year-old reliever induces a ton of groundballs (56.7% groundball rate) and is particularly effective against right-handed hitters. His strikeout-to-walk ratio (6.90) is fifth-best among relievers since the start of 2010 while limiting them to a sub-1.00 WHIP.

As the NL Central doormat, the Astros are sellers and it is likely Lopez – who hasn’t been tied to any rumors up to this point – might be available for a substantially lower cost than any of the other names on this list. He isn’t dominating but his skills against righties would add depth to the Twins bullpen.

Brad Ziegler (OAK):

You want a ground ball? Brad Ziegler will get you your friggin’ ground ball. So far this season, hitters have beaten the ball into the earth over 70% of the time. This sort of skill set is perfect for when there are fewer than two outs, a runner on first and a right-hander up. You can already mark the “6-4-3” on your scorecard in advance.

Like most side-winding types, Ziegler exhibits a significant platoon split, getting slapped around by lefties. Nevertheless, for situational use, Ziegler is one of the best. He’s making a $1.25 million this season which means the Twins would owe him less than $1 million for his services but he is about to hit his first year of arbitration this winter which will spike his earnings up.

Billy Beane, GM of the A’s, operates like he is a vendor within a Turkish Bazaar, buying and selling and finagling all over the place. He recognizes his team is in sell mode and has actually made it known that some of his pieces, like Ziegler, can be had for a reasonable amount. Ziegler would be a very functional component to the relief staff.
 

As a recent article in ESPN the Magazine pointed out, teams typically trade with teams that they have familiarity with. In the cases of Washington, Baltimore, Oakland and Colorado, the Twins have had recent interaction with them (although we might want to forget the outcomes of the Washington-Baltimore deals). This may increase the likelihood of a transaction happening between those clubs as opposed to forging ground to get Lopez in Houston or another team.

The Twins are focused on ensuring whatever move they make not only helps this season but also has an impact for next year – which is why the majority of these moves make sense as are all are available in 2012.  

So that happened...

It was the team’s worst throttling since the April 25, 1974 Kansas City massacre in which the Royals pummeled the Twins to the tune of 23-to-6. The only other time the team would allow 20 runs would be in their inaugural season in which they lost – once again in Kansas City but to the Athletics - 20-to-2.

Don't be fooled: neither Kansas City team had the offensive firepower nor hitter-friendly ballpark and atmosphere found at the Ballpark in Arlington. The Rangers ripped through Nick Blackburn and then the Twins bullpen. Ron Gardenhire continued to pull another arm out each inning like his relievers were Kleenex. After burning through four arms, he called upon the player whose has played just about everywhere else: Michael Cuddyer.

To me, it seemed that MLB.com’s pitch f/x system had difficulties classifying the 16 pitches Cuddyer threw towards the plate, considering some four-seamers, others changeups, a few cutters and a pair of sliders. This isn’t unusual for the pitch f/x system to have difficulties labeling a pitch – especially one with the erratic tendencies of a super utility player. However, when asked about his repertoire after the game, Cuddyer told MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger that he did indeed through an assortment of pitches (or at least attempted to throw them).

Color me surprised.

You would figure that a player such as Cuddyer would get in there and grip and rip. Maybe try to throw that snap-dragon bender he had been working on while warming up with the fellow outfielders.

Judging from his short-arm, three-quarter inconsistent slot it’s easy to see why the fielder had difficulties putting the finishing touches on a sinker or pinpoint command of his fastball. Still, blessed with a good arm in the outfield, the radar gun, as well as the pitch f/x cameras, caught Cuddyer’s fastball traveling 88 miles per hour (a Delorean fastball). While we don’t have data to see how this compared to the franchises more recent position-player-turned-pitchers in John Moses and Dan Gladden, I would wager that he was throwing harder than they ever did.

Mercifully, the Rangers somehow didn’t score a run off of him in spite of the defense’s best efforts. Pending any more opponent outbursts, Cuddyer is likely safe to retire his pitcher’s glove and go down in Minnesota history with Cesar Tovar as the only position players with 0.00 ERAs.