Concern for Capps

During the Sunday afternoon pre-game show on 1500ESPN, Twins general manager Bill Smith addressed the current shuffling at the backend of the bullpen. As diplomatic as he could, Smith acknowledged that Matt Capps wasn’t performing up to snuff, and that Capps was disappointed in himself, but – most importantly – his ability to rebound would be essential to the Twins’ success this season.

Say what you will about the Twins decision to trade for him last year or committing $7.15 million for this season, but as they said in the movie Juno, that’s one doodle that can’t be undid, homeskillet. While fans can whine and grouse about the past, at this juncture, the GM is exactly right: The Twins need an effective Matt Capps.

This winter the front office had a bevy of right-handed hurlers including Capps, Joe Nathan, Alex Burnett, Pat Neshek, Kevin Slowey and Anthony Slama. However, injuries and ineffectiveness has left the team operating with a shortage of righties. Now, knee-deep in the fringe of a pennant race, the Twins have admitted they are targeting outside help in this department, including Toronto’s Jon Rauch and Jason Frasor. For the Twins, if Capps is able to regain his form, adding another arm would give the bullpen much needed depth from the right-side. If he isn’t, it’s simply swapping out one arm for another.

So, how big is that “if” for Capps?

The coaching staff has said it is an unspecified mechanical issue, which is somewhat odd considering how good Capps supposedly is at self-diagnosis. According this preseason interview with Baseball Prospectus’s David Laurila, Capps said he is very much a proponent of using video analysis to study his mechanics:  

 

MC: The last couple of years, video is something I’ve really started to lean on quite a bit. I look at different things, like past at-bats against a hitter. I also try to watch myself, especially [in spring training]. I go back and watch videos of myself to kind of see what I’m doing now compared to then. I want to make sure that I’m on the same page mechanically and where I need to be.

{clip} 

 DL: When you’re out of sync, what is typically at fault?

MC: I’m usually breaking down my back side, or I’m jumping too soon, or both. They kind of go hand-in-hand with each other. If I break down my back side, I tend to leap toward home plate. I get a little fast in my body and my arm can’t catch up. That’s usually the first thing I watch for, to see what my back knee and my hip are doing.

 

Even with Capps’s well-trained eye, the ousted closer recently told 1500ESPN.com’s Tom Pelissero that they have not been able to pick anything out that resembles a mechanical issue:

"I've looked. Andy's looked. (Expletive), I'm tired, but who's not? I think the workload early in the year has finally caught up a little bit. But I'll get through it. (Expletive), if I keep the ball down and get a lot of movement and not too much everything else, I should have been fine the last couple weeks. I'll go back to that and I'll be fine."

There is little doubt that he has been leaving his pitches up. Opponents have gone from hitting it on the ground 51% of the time in 2010 to just 31% of the time this season. It’s flat and hitters have been letting him know that with resounding enthusiasm. With his fastball not achieving the same results as last year, the decline in his swinging strikes, his constant shifting on the pitching rubber, not to mention the fact that his pitches are not moving as well as they did a year ago, it begs the question: Is Matt Capps playing hurt?

The impetus for raising the question goes beyond the recent string of rough outings. It is because Capps’s motion contains what is referred to as hyperabduction of the pitching elbow. Hyperabduction occurs when a pitcher lifts his elbow above shoulder-level which places added stress on those two areas and has led to both labrum and elbow injuries. The shot below highlights this effect:

While his injury history has been relatively clean, Capps did land on the disabled list with shoulder bursitis and elbow swelling while with Pittsburgh. Although he has not had any bouts with injuries since 2009, the ugly results in 2011 raises the question if he is playing through an injury.    

Undoubtedly, there is a level of machismo in baseball that would spur a player to continue on despite a nagging shoulder or a barking elbow. Nick Blackburn pitched all of last year with bone chips. Scott Baker, with the aid of a cortisone shot, attempted to persevere through the same. Ditto for Joe Nathan in 2009. What’s more is that there is the added financial incentive to remain on the field – even at less than 100%. For someone who is a free agent at the season’s end, they need to audition for their next paycheck. For relievers especially, spending the season in the whirlpool won’t land you multi-year contracts.

In the end, the best case scenario that Capps overcomes whatever mechanical issue they identify, he returns to being that consistent late innings pitcher in the second-half and any maneuver made at the deadline is just adding quality depth. On the other hand, if news breaks that Capps needs some DL-time, it should not come as a surprise. 

The power of Plouffe

You can say this about Trevor Plouffe: Whenever he shows up, he certainly announces his presence with authority.

When recalled in early May Plouffe smacked a home run off of Boston’s Tim Wakefield in his first at-bat. Last night, he matched that by displacing a Bruce Chen-delivered Rawlings into the left field foul pole.

This display of power a relatively new feature to Plouffe’s game. Despite hitting double-digits in home runs in 2010, slugging 17 home runs over the course of 489 plate appearances split between Rochester and Minnesota, the infielder is currently having one of his best power seasons. So far in 2011, Plouffe has topped that by hitting 19 home runs in just 296 plate appearances.

It is remarkable to go from hitting a home run every 28.7 plate appearances to tagging one every 15.6 plate appearances. For comparisons’ sake, last season Jim Thome popped off a home run every 13.6 plate appearances. So how is it that Plouffe suddenly pops off for this much power? It appears that Plouffe made some adjustments to his approach.

In early in the 2010 season, Plouffe demonstrated plenty of pre-swing bat movement – stirring the soup with his bat if you will. In this at-bat against Milwaukee’s Jeff Suppan, notice the constant movement of his bat. He continues to do this until the pitch is well on its way before he draws back his pre-launch point with his hands.

This is very similar to Danny Valencia’s bat-stirring prior to the pitch being delivered. From the side-view, you can see how far the bat has to travel from the starting point near his head to the loading, pre-launch point. It is noisy and, for the most part, unnecessary.

Meanwhile in this year’s version, Plouffe exhibits a much calmer demeanor at the plate, holding his bat still and reducing the distance it has to travel for it to reach the pre-launch position:

This improvement is better appreciated from the side view in which you can see his hands barely needing to cover any ground in order to get in the loaded position.

Another aspect that he has demonstrated better this year is a more violent leg lift/plant tandem then he did in the past season. This has created a firm front leg and allows for a more aggressive hip rotation which assists process of driving the ball.   

All of this has led to more connectivity, greater punch but most of all, lift. For most of his career, Plouffe was hovering around 45-50% in the ground ball rate department in the minor leagues. Meanwhile in Rochester this year, he has hit the ball on the ground just 31% of the time. In short, he is hitting the ball squarely.

The tall, long-armed Plouffe clearly has the body capable of generating power. In fact, he is built very similarly to last year’s shortstop JJ Hardy, who has been enjoying his first season with the Orioles. But, for the majority of his prospecthood, he failed to maximize his potential in that department. These latest adaptations have seemingly tapped into that source. Provided that the Twins can find a position for him, Plouffe could be a big offensive addition for the season’s second-half.

Quick Hits: Demoted Renes, Promoted Plouffe and Span

1500ESPN’s Phil Mackey tells us the Twins, in recalling Delmon Young and Trevor Plouffe, have send down the Rene’s – Tosoni and Rivera.

While the Tosoni decision was relatively straightforward, deciding between backstops Drew Butera and Rivera appeared more complicated. Butera has become the favorite for Carl Pavano, subduing the running game for the sluggish-in-the-stretch righty. Rivera, on the other hand, had coaxed some of the best work out of Francisco Liriano. Neither offered much in the way of offense but in his limited reps Butera has gone 12-for-37 (.327) in his last 36 plate appearances whereas Rivera had been an ice-cold 5-for-35 (.143) recently.

Meanwhile Plouffe’s returning with plenty of fanfare after decimating some AAA pitching. From May 1 to May 20, the shortstop performed extremely well at the plate, hitting .289/.404/.579 with 3 home runs and a pair of doubles. Then, opponents began to pick on a soft spot in his swing down-and-in. From May 21 until his demotion, he went 1-for-22 with just four balls hit out of the infield. Plouffe’s outpour of offense at Rochester suggests that either he’s (a) figured out how to handle that pitch or (b) AAA teams have not been able to exploit this spot.

Denard Span is inching closer to returning writes MLB.com reporter Rhett Bollinger. According to the manager, Span will be re-evaluated either Tuesday or Wednesday by doctors this week and, if given the all-clear, will be assigned to Rochester for 7-to-10 days on rehab.

Between Ben Revere and Denard Span, the Twins would tout one of the best defensive outfield combinations in baseball. While Span has been much improved in his time in center, Revere has proven that with his speed he can not only cover the area in Target Field but would like patrol the land between the Red River and Lake Superior just as well.  Together, they have helped the Twins convert an MLB-leading 76 out-of-zone catches while making the majority of plays within their designated zone. Their joint efforts in the outfield would give the Twins' fly ball pitchers above-average support.

It’s not hard to imagine Span moving to a corner outfield slot in order to accommodate for the rangier Revere but if there is one position Span should not be moved from it’s the lead-off spot. Although Revere has adequately enough in Span’s absence, Span is clearly a more polished lead-off hitter. 

Nishioka makes strides from left side

Through the first 20 games in his short career, some pundits were already labeling Tsuyoshi Nishioka a “bust” and a “mistake” by the Twins front office. There were little indications that he would be someone who could handle playing at the highest level of professional baseball. Defensively, he played like with the jitteriness of someone on 27 cups of caffeinate crack while offensively, major league pitchers – particularly those of the right-handed variety – were chewing him up and spitting him out.

Perhaps because of JJ Hardy’s thunderous performance with his new team or Trevor Plouffe’s continued decimation of International League pitching, scrutiny over Nishioka’s lack of offensive contributions has taken center stage. While his numbers are still depressing, there is evidence that he might be capable for turning things around.

In the beginning of the season, Nishioka’s one-foot-out-of-the-box style of hitting from the left-side was easily defused by a steady stream of pitches on the outer-half of the plate. Scouts clearly saw this flaw in his game and opponents went to work exploiting this weakness:

Tsuyoshi Nishioka’s Pitch Location (Left)
Inside	Middle	Away
22	51	139
14%	23%	63%

(data from joelefkowitz.com)

With his momentum taking his body towards first, the switch-hitting infielder could do little but dribble and doink the deluge of fastballs and off-speed pitches with minimum oomph. Below is a prime example of this in action. The Giants’ Ryan Vogelsong runs a fastball down and away which Nishioka – whose weight is already moving towards first base when contact is made – bounces it innocuously enough to short:

 

After several weeks of watching this transpire, at the end of June, manager Ron Gardenhire had enough of Nishioka’s left-handed approach:

"He drifted off the ball again tonight. He's got to stay there. He can't drift off like that."

Helpless at the plate, with the language barrier - in addition to a technology barrier – the Twins seemed to have their own internal issues attempting to communicate with the scuffling rookie. Despite all of the obstacles, it appears that the team has found a way to get the message through to Nishioka. Not long after that, Nishioka appears to have made two changes that have provided the team with some reassuring signs of progress.

Posted in Joe Christensen’s Around the Majors blog, Amelia Rayno and Alex Prewitt wrote that Twins hitting coach, Joe Vavra, had provided the shortstop with some psychological and mechanical tips – the latter of which Nishioka did not care to divulge. In spite of the secrecy, after watching him since the Rays series and from consulting the recent clips of his swing compared to earlier cuts, we find that from the left-side of the dish, Nishioka has made an alteration that should help improve his overall coverage.

Here is a clip from April:

 

Compare that to last night’s swing:

 

In the first clip at Yankee Stadium, you see Nishioka swinging his front leg open more, planting the right foot towards the first base line. This motion already sets him up for struggles when being pitched away – and that is before the problems piled on when the rest of his body begins to drift off toward that direction in mid-swing. The second clip of Nishioka’s single back up the middle last night shows him striding and planting his lead foot towards the pitcher, keeping his front-side in more. This gives him the capacity to cover the entire plate. After all, look how much closer he ends up at the plate in comparison to the above clip in San Francisco.

The second change in what is a giant step forward for the rookie is his drastic reduction in the amount of pitches chased on the outer-half. While pitchers are still trying to work him away, Nishioka has begun to lay off those extremely tough pitches just off the plate.

The charts below show the location of the pitches Nishioka has swung at (viewed from a catcher’s perspective). What we see is that from April through June (top chart), Nishioka offered at plenty of the pitches on the far side of the zone. While those pitches are within the strike zone, they are very difficult pitches to hit well – a “pitcher’s pitch” as Bert would say. Since the beginning of July (bottom chart), he has refrained from swinging at those pitches.

 

In essence, Nishioka has made improvements twofold. The first being the mechanical adjustment that allows him to cover the zone better. As noted above, he is driving toward the pitcher more with his weight and has effectively increased his plate coverage. The second is that he is simply recognizing which pitches he can and cannot handle. So while he may be able to put that fastball on the black into play, the results are not likely going to be favorable. Taking that pitch is a much better decision.

This could be a significant turning point in Nishioka’s development in his first season stateside.  He still has a long ways to go in order to become one of the “better shortstops in the American League” as his former Chiba Lotte executive predicted, but Nishioka is at least back on the right path.

 

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• Now available at DiamondCentric for a pre-sale price of $15.99: 

• The National Parkinson Foundation of Minnesota has a great offer for Twins fans that can help the foundation. Bert Blyleven’s favorite foundation is offering tickets to an upcoming Twins/Royals game on July 16^th.  It also happens to be the day his number “28” gets retired. For $24, fans get a seat in section 329 with the proceeds going to support Parkinson’s research. You can find more information on the organization and purchase your ticket here.

Hitters elevating Capps' fastball

After yet another incomplete save opportunity, Matt Capps is once again under the microscope.

Pitching coach Rick Anderson told reporters that he is going to review the video to see if his current struggles are sourced to a mechanical issue. In May, I pointed out that Capps was trekking back and forth on the rubber, something that he had not done in the past. Shortly after that, he quit doing so and rattled off a decent string of outings. Unfortunately, since the beginning of the month, everything he throws up is hit hard back at him.

I’m interested to see if their archives show anything out of the ordinary in Capps’s motion. After doing a quick jaunt through the MLB.com archives and a few clips saved on the DVR, I am not seeing anything overtly different. Pitch F/X does not offer any insight either. This does not mean he isn’t deviating from his normal mechanics, it just simply means the handful of clips at the two available angles is not revealing anything.

For Capps, his struggles seem to boil down to two key items:

(1) He throws a ton of fastballs. Capps comes with his fastball 82.6% of the time, making that the fifth-highest usage among relievers. (2) His fastball isn’t all that good. The velocity, while solid, isn’t spectacular. Likewise, the movement on his fastball isn’t something that drops or runs making it more difficult to square up. On top of that, in addition to being thrown over the plate, it’s often up in the zone.

So far this season, the results have been wildly different from those of last year:

Matt Capps’s Fastball (2009-2011)
	GB%	Well-Hit Avg	Chase%	Thrown%
2009	42%	.285	21%	69%
2010	51%	.214	30%	72%
2011	31%	.264	17%	82%
MLB AVG	44%	.241	20%	62%

(via MyInsideEdge)

As we have learned, Capps does not come equipped with the often prerequisite filthy pitch that many of the game’s elite closers possess. He does not have a dominating cutter like Mariano Rivera nor a wafting change-up like Trevor Hoffman. He doesn’t have an overpowering fastball like Pittsburgh’s Joel Hanrahan nor doesn’t have a biting slider like vintage Joe Nathan. He works with his fastball.

The problem is that it isn’t necessarily overpowering. His average fastball velocity is at 92.8-mph, down from 94-mph last year. This could be because he is using a two-seam fastball more (as pitch f/x says) or potentially because of shoulder issues (shoulder injuries effect velocity).

Exacerbating the problem is that he has been using it far too often - allowing hitters to sit on it as BJ Upton did last night (Corretion: Upon further review, Capps hung a slider to Upton, overall point still stands). Now in his second tour of American League opponents, scouting reports have emerged that Capps is incapable of spinning any other pitch. Not surprising, his overall swing-and-miss rate has dropped from an above average 9% miss rate to a below average 7% miss rate.

Because of his reluctance to twirl his slider and the decrease in velocity, not to mention the fact that his fastball is up in the zone more, I wouldn’t be surprised to hear of something health-wise affecting his arm. If he has a clean bill of health, Capps needs to work in his slider more often to keep hitters from sitting dead-red on his fastball.