Signing Koji Uehara makes a lot of sense for the Twins

When the Twins outlined their strategy for the offseason, they focused on two items: solidifying the middle infield and repair the bullpen. Now on the verge of landing Tsuyoshi Nishioka, the former task appears to be completed. Addressing the latter issue, however, may also tie in with the acquisition of Nishioka.

Reports emerged from the winter meetings recently that the Twins have been linked to the Orioles’ free agent closer, 36-year-old Koji Uehara. Uehara, in addition to giving the team a wonderful bullpen arm, would also provide Nishioka a cultural compatriot in the clubhouse that could help ease the transition from Japan to America.

According to 1500ESPN.com’s Phil Mackey, Twins general manager Bill Smith told reporters that neither Nishioka nor his wife speaks any English. While baseball is a universal language between the chalk lines, there can be a substantial barrier on the bench, in the clubhouse and on the road. Without question, this could have an adverse affect on his performance and, ultimately, his career.

Take Hideki Okajima’s story, for example. Okajima, a four-year veteran of the Red Sox, admitted to ESPNBoston.com’s Gordon Edes that he experienced what he described as significant loneliness and isolation. After being one of key pitchers that reliably protected the game in front of closer Jonathon Papelbon for three consecutive years, Okajima suddenly began to struggle this past season. At one point, he allowed 27 hits in 15.2 innings of work. Perhaps his downtrodden 2010 season compounded the problem but through his interpreter, Okajima told Edes that the time spent in the bullpen, without the interpreter in the area due to team regulations, made him feel distant and unconnected. Portrayed as a malcontent by the Boston media, Okajima was non-tendered by the Red Sox this winter.

But acquiring Uehara goes beyond just providing Nishioka a partner to reminisce with about the old country or grab post-game sushi at Orgami. Because of the potential of losing three right-handed middle relievers in Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier and Jon Rauch, a right-handed replacement that is tough on same-sided opponents would be an ideal solution.

And that’s just what Uehara is. Last season, Uehara was absolutely cold-blooded against right-handers, holding them to a .196 batting average against while posting a 26-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. As good as the Twins trio was none of them had that kind of success against righties.

Despite college-level velocity (his fastball barely gets into the upper 80s), Uehara hits his spots and mixes in a curve, changeup and a nasty split-finger. With underwhelming stuff that bores radar gun enthusiasts, you might think he would be a high-contact pitcher. You would be wrong. According to Fangraphs.com’s contract data, Uehara’s contact rate of 74.1 percent was the fifth-lowest in the American League. Using a deceptive delivery – or what Orioles skipper Buck Showalter called “his presentation” - along with his assortment of pitches that he throws with pin-point accuracy, Uehara misses a ton of bats and rarely gives his opponents a free base.  In fact, in 44 innings, he struck out 55 and walked just 5. That 11.25 K/BB ratio was the second-best in the AL (behind Chicago’s Matt Thornton). 

When opponents do make contact, the majority of the results end up as fly balls. Actually, his fly ball rate of 58.2 percent was the second-highest in baseball, trailing only Brian Fuentes in this statistic. For a Twins pitcher to have that much elevation, it is a double-edged sword. On one hand, Target Field has one of the most home run-resistant confines in baseball, ensuring that most aerial endeavors remain on the field of play. On the other hand, the Twins also have two of the slowest corner outfielders in the game. If those flies are aimed towards the gaps, there is a strong chance that those can drop in for extra bases.

Because of his injury history, missing most of 2009 and the beginning of 2010 with a forearm strain, the Orioles decided not to offer Uehara arbitration, which would have been a raise above his $5 million salary. Instead, the Orioles have expected to re-sign him at a lower price than what he would receive through the arbitration process. There is some sentiment that the feeling is mutual as Uehara has enjoyed the closer’s job, a position he wouldn’t likely be guaranteed outside of Maryland, and had just recently purchased a home in the Baltimore area. At the same time, he has made it known that he is seeking a two-year deal, which many teams may hesitant to commit to because of the aforementioned injury history.

The Twins essentially have two very good reasons to obtain Uehara, besides being both affordable and effective. First of which is that he would be a solid replacement arm for the bullpen’s departed, possessing a strike-throwing skill set that is highly coveted by management. Secondly, they need someone to act as an ambassador to the organization’s newest investment. If they neglect the opportunity to bring him in, it would seem to be a disappointing miss for the hometown club.

Will Thome be back?

When the Twins decided to exercise Jason Kubel’s option for 2011 and almost simultaneous declaring their intentions of pursuing Jim Thome, it more or less guaranteed that the lineup would be predominately left-handed once again.

All had been quiet for the longest time when Thome’s agent emerged to announce that his client fully intended on playing in 2011 – no doubt trying to reach that magical 600 home run mark (and sell more of these bad boy shirts). Despite being a fan favorite and the team’s biggest source of power last year, Thome has aged, wants more dinero and is the preverbal slow-footed, one-dimensional player that Ron Gardenhire has been outspoken about avoiding. In spite of those facts, the Twins still remain interested in his services.

In some ways, the team’s insistence on remaining left-handed heavy was one of the reasons behind their demise in the ALDS against the Yankees. Because no right-handed alternative existed, Kubel and Thome were left to combat CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte. To be sure, both Kubel and Thome are middling against average southpaws, let alone the Yankee duo that shuts down more lefties than Bill O’Reilly. The results were predictably ugly. In Game 1, the pair went 0-for-3 with two walks and a hit-by-pitch off of Sabathia. In the ensuing Game 2, Thome managed to line a single left and Kubel coaxed a walk but they finished 1-for-5 in that contest.

And just like that, the Twins were down two games to none.

Several hours after the Yankees recorded the final out in New York in the elimination game, I tweeted in haste that the biggest need this winter was to acquire a bat to fill that role. In short, with no particular rhyme or reason, I listed six would-be free agents who swing a right-handed stick and implored the GM to contact their agents this off-season.

(In full disclosure, I submitted that tweet consumed with equal parts disgust and Grain Belt.)

In my mind, in that hour, after, let’s say, the twelfteenth bottle of Premium that was the most important item to cross-off the to-do list.

It wasn’t just that the Twins were short-(right-)handed for the Yankees, they would have been at a disadvantage if they had eventually met up with the Rangers (who had Cliff Lee and C.J. Wilson). This appeared to be a gross miscalculation by the team’s builders as the post-season landscape starting to take shape at the trade deadline.

Having time to let it marinate, I have since recanted my stance on this issue and no longer view it as a pressing need, per se. In that small sample size of three games, it was clear that the Twins were deficient when it came to right-handed options. This fact remains true. However, this is not an imminent need, at least not in the sense that the Twins need to commit a significant amount of payroll to a right-handed bat. 

The Twins won 94 games last year based on their ability to man-handle their divisional opponents. While going 47-43 with everyone else, they posted a 47-25 record against the Central – the best interdivision record in the American League. They were able to accomplish this feat because the AL Central is loaded with Kansas City Royals and right-handed starting pitchers. And this situation isn’t likely to change in 2011 either.

Unless they make some bold moves, the Indians and Royals currently have five righties slated for their rotation. The Tigers had five right-handers last year but plan on moving the left-handed Phil Coke to the rotation. Only the White Sox, who have Mark Buerhle and John Danks with the possibility of fireballer Chris Sale joining them, are considering going lefty-heavy to presumably compete with the Twins’ core of left-handed hitters. Nonetheless, on the whole, the AL Central will be a righty dominated group.

But the right-handed majority isn’t just limited to the AL Central. At the time of the Kubel option, I wrote this:

“Last season in the American League, right-handed pitchers were on the mound for 62,275 out of the total 86,725 match-ups. That is, 71% of the overall encounters saw a righty on the mound. Therefore, stacking the lineup with potent left-handed bats presents a sizeable platoon advantage to the offense.” 

Given that left-handed pitchers represent a smaller universe compared to their right-handed counterparts, Twins needn’t sign a right-handed hitter who is interested in 500-plus plate appearances – marquee guys like Paul Konerko, Maggilo Ordonez and Derrek Lee are going to want full-time jobs and also be compensated as such. What the Twins need is a player that can siphon off 250 plate appearances during those other 29% of match-ups against left-handed pitchers -- basically a right-handed version of Jim Thome last year.

Unfortunately, that person does not exist. Until scientists figure out a way to extract Thome’s DNA from whatever hunks of raw porterhouse he chews for sport and create a mirror image of him so that the Thome clone swings from the right side, the Twins will have to seek out other alternatives.

There are a handful of modestly priced hitters that can adequately fulfill this need. Marcus Thames, the Yankees righty de jour last season, has demonstrated that he has an ownership over left-handed pitchers (career .264/.333/.505 hitter vs LHP). Because of his non-existent defense, Thames is familiar with the irregular workload and would be a very serviceable platoon partner for Kubel. Similarly, Troy Glaus has mashed left-handed pitching (career .273/.396/.542 vs LHP) but wore down late in the season with the Braves last year. Seeing as that he will be 34 in 2011 and has something to prove, a one-year deal and part-time play appears on his horizon. Other candidates for this type of work include Jorge Cantu (career .272/.323/.451 vs LHP) or Matt Diaz (.335/.373/.533 vs LHP).

Outside of the one-dimensional hitters like Thames, Glaus and company, there are several options that may provide the Twins with more versatility as well as right-handed lumber. Austin Kearns’ numbers were impressive in Cleveland but a wrist injury zapped his offense after he was traded to New York at the end of the year. In addition to being respectable against lefties (career .261/.383/.416 vs LHP), Kearns would be a great defensive replacement in right field (career 11.0 UZR/150). Likewise, Andruw Jones provided the White Sox with some thunder, played above average in the corners of the outfield and was passable as a backup center fielder giving him value beyond just his offense. He too has torn through left-handed pitching (career .261/.361/.501 vs LHP).

To be fair, having Jim Thome return for one more season at $3 million wouldn’t be the world’s worst proposition. Sure, he reduces the roster’s flexibility and likely won’t recreate the same numbers he produced in 2010 but he has been a good “clubhouse presence”, mentoring youngsters like Danny Valencia who credits a lot of his rookie success to the lumbering lug. As noted previously, there is an abundance of right-handed pitchers and Thome was no slouch at handling them (.302/.455/.698 in 246 plate appearances last year). Furthermore, while still in its infancy, Target Field appears to give a slight power advantage to left-handed hitters, as they as a group out-slugged righties by 26 points in the ballpark’s first season (thanks in part to Thome who slugged .688 at home). If Thome indeed comes back to Minnesota, he provides the team with an offensive boost during the regular season.

Of course, it doesn’t mean neglecting the right-handed bat issue either. Even though it may be a future problem, we witnessed how the Twins were brushed aside by the Yankees two lefties and they will attempt to woo Cliff Lee this winter, setting up another one-two southpaw combination. Marching back into the postseason without an answer would pave the way to another mid-October on the golf course.

If nothing attractive manages to manifest during the winter, serviceable right-handed bats are frequently a commodity that is often readily available on the waivers or in a trade near the deadline. Consider the slew of them that changed hands between July 1 and August 31 of last year: Jhonny Peralta, Cantu, Miguel Tejada, Derrek Lee, Kearns, Ryan Ludwick, Jeff Francoeur, Manny Ramirez, and Cody Ross. Certainly several of these kinds of players will be obtainable just in time for a post-season run.

Because the Twins have to run a 162-game marathon before they can even enter the three-game sprint, the focus should be on conditioning for the long run before the short burst. If they can acquire a viable, inexpensive right-handed option like one of the few listed above, the Twins will be better prepared for the post-season than they were a year ago. If they forgo that route to retain Thome, they still have a roster capable of inflicting plenty of damage as well and the possibility of finding right-handed help, if need be.

Twins bullpen just got lighter

Earlier in the offseason, Sam Miller of the Orange County Register pointed out that 12 of the 34 free agents classified as Type A – meaning teams would have to forfeit draft picks to sign them – were relief pitchers. Tagging this many relievers with this status certainly devalues a lot of the talent. With the market salivating for unencumbered middle relief help, the Twins may have ultimately tossed two steaks in to the shark tank.

On Tuesday, Jesse Crain turned down the Twins’ offer of arbitration, which should come as a surprise to no one. After coming off of a terrific second-half of the season, the 28-year-old Crain was one of the few relievers to have a solid showcasing in 2010 without being shackled to a Type A status. On the other hand, a week ago Tuesday, the team decided not to extend arbitration to Matt Guerrier, who was given Type A status, as the 32-year-old would stand to make a plush raise over his $3.15 million salary from 2009.

With both of their late innings pedigrees and the fact that they are not restricted by Type A status, teams are now eagerly targeting the righties. Recognizing that they have a very favorable climate, the two Twins relievers are currently seeking three-year deals.

After turning to his slider more Crain transformed into one of the most reliable relievers in baseball. From June 1 on, when the deployment of his slider noticeably increased, Crain held opponents to a .189 batting average while striking out 45 in 46 innings of work and allowing just two home runs in that time (he’s only allowed five home runs dating back to May 17, 2009). MLB Network’s Peter Gammons tweeted that Crain was possibly the hottest reliever left on the market after the Tigers’ signed Joaquin Benoit. By his count, Gammons had 11 teams interested in his services.

Toronto has been one of the more outspoken teams seeking his services. Without a brand-name closer and in the midst of what they insist is a “re-building process”, the Blue Jays feel that Crain is the right candidate for them. Rather than sign a closer at a closer’s price, they would likely ink Crain to a contract similar to Benoit’s (three-years, $16.5 million) and allow him to audition for the closer’s role – a job that Crain has expressed interest in. Because almost all of the other team’s on Gammons’ list have closers, the Blue Jays and their vacancy may entice Crain into departing from Minnesota.

Given his age and track record, Crain should easily get a three-year deal. Guerrier, meanwhile, is probably hindering his marketability somewhat by requesting a three-year deal.

Admittedly, as much as I’ve tried in the past, it’s hard to argue with his results. In the past two seasons, he’s been one of the most reliable relievers (223.2 innings, 4th most) with a decent average against (.238) and WHIP (1.22). In spite of the impressive track record, what he doesn’t possess is any of indication that he can sustain this going forward.  He doesn’t miss bats and he doesn’t get an absurd amount of groundballs (although he’s decent at avoiding rocketed line drives). What’s more is that his batting average on balls in play (.259) is one of the lowest in that time plus his FIP has lagged significantly behind his ERA (-0.98). Not to mention, in that time he’s also allowed the second-most home runs (29) in baseball. Given the circumstances, a team doing their due diligence would likely avoid dishing out a multi-year contract with that kind of volatility. 

That notwithstanding, several teams have an obvious interest. In addition to the Baltimore Orioles and the Toronto Blue Jays, the Boston Red Sox are rumored to be interested in Guerrier. While a very stats-friendly ballclub, the Sox play in an environment in which right-handed hitters can have a lot of success. When you play there for 81 games, you want to make sure that you are fully prepared to deal with that scenario. In his career, Guerrier has held right-handed hitters to a good .235 average which would appeal to Boston’s front office. However, righties have hit fly balls 40% of the time. So while that .235 career average or .210 in ’10 might seem appealing now, given the close proximity of the Green Monster and his home run proclivity, Guerrier’s pitching style might not be all that conducive to Fenway.

Beyond Crain and Guerrier, the Twins are poised to lose Jon Rauch and Brian Fuentes. Combined, the foursome worked 78.1 of the 113.2 innings in save opportunities last season.  The Twins are not one to build their bullpen through free agency – which means overspending in price and years - and it is highly unlikely that Ron Gardenhire would be satisfied heading into the season with the untested lot of Alex Burnett, Anthony Slama or Rob Delaney as his 7th and 8th inning bridge. Furthermore, in spite of Joe Nathan insistence to the contrary, it’s hard to imagine him returning at his pre-surgery form in 2011.

One possibility that is surely on Bill Smith’s mind is to trade J.J. Hardy for bullpen help. While a less than ideal solution that weakens the team in the middle infield, clearly Hardy can bring in a useful, low cost arm. Because the team has little intention of keeping him past the 2011 season, he’s likely the perfect trading piece in their view, particularly given the competition’s need for shortstop and their belief that Alexi Casilla can handle a full-time position.

It remains a possibility that the Twins will attempt to retain either Crain or Guerrier (MLB.com’s Kelly Thesier hints that the team may try to bring Crain back) but for now, the market appears too attractive to the pair to pass up and the organization will have to look to fill those vacancies in other ways.  

Expectation for Tsuyoshi Nishioka

After doling out $5.3 million to try to talk Chiba Lotte’s shortstop into moving from the Far East to the Midwest, the Twins are in the midst of a 30-day negotiating process with Tsuyoshi Nishioka’s agents. What fans are interesting in is what may be expected from what could be the Twins’ newest import.

While we live in an age where you can just about anything you want from the annals of the internet (including videos of, ahem, well, subtract an “n” from one of the words prior to this parenthetical…), we still do not have a comprehensive data available for imports from Japan. There are no sites like Fangraphs.com or Baseball-Reference.com that carries over the pertinent Nippon Professional Baseball information – like batted ball splits or platoon splits –needed to making analysis on what a player’s conversion rate might be. If there were, it might have been possible for the Mets to vet Kaz Matsui before acquiring him (although, by some ratings systems, he is still ranks as the fourth-best player ever in Japan). 

For the most part, the common accepted belief is that the NPB is a step below major league caliber play – at best, a AAA with a half-A. Still, with the exception of Hideki Matsui, there has not been a player from Japan whose power skills made the trip across the Pacific with him. (Of course, the short right field porch at Yankee Stadium was very welcoming for Matsui who went from 50 home runs in Tokyo to 16 in NYC his first season.) Both Akinori Iwamura and Kaz Matsui hit over 30 home runs while in the Nippon league but failed to hit out of the single-digits in the majors. It would appear that power is a high tariff in the United States on goods from Japan.

Perhaps because Nishioka does not possess that particular skill but has several other universal skills like line drive tendencies and a strong zone acumen that he would find greater success than his other two infield predecessors – who have since returned back to their homeland as their careers on this side of the globe has fizzled. With little hard data available on Nishioka’s career, we can use this video that has circulated around recently, to see what it might reveal about his potential.

Old-fashioned scouting with new fangled video techniques:

As you will see below, he attacks the pitch well with a level swing from both sides of the plate. His hands/weight remains back while he takes a large stride and his hips and hands explode at the same pace through the zone up to the point of contact – which is out in front in both examples.

Unlike the Matsuis or the Cubs’ Kosuke Fukudome – three of Japan’s power-hitting imports - Nishioka stays relatively low while the other three remain upright with a short stance before the pitch. They all share the same leg-lift and stride, however, Nishioka’s appears to be longer (especially from the left-side), setting up a wider base during his swing. Clearly, he’s not trying to leverage the ball for elevation like the other trio did in Japan, rather, he’s hitting the ball on a rope.

With the torque and involvement of his lower-half, you get the impression that these are not fliners (fly ball/liner combination) or slapped grounders but rather inciting some charge in the ball. He also gets out of the box faster than a man who has just been discovered by a jealous husband so with good speed he probably beats out numerous infield hits. As such, without any access to batted ball data to base this upon, making the assumption based on his mechanics, Nishioka is probably above-average in the line drive and ground ball categories – propelling him to that fairly impressive .293 career batting average.

Reviewing just the video of his highlight clips, it would appear that Nishioka is adept at using the entire field (perhaps a little more pull-happy from the left-side of the plate judging from the way he opens up his hips quickly). Again, I cannot stress enough on how these videos are hand-picked and do not tell the entire story, however, from the small-sample clips we can see that Nishioka is spraying foul pole to foul pole with line drives from both sides of the plate.

Based upon his mechanics in the video, this appears to be a common occurrence rather than cherry-picked moments because, as I noted above, he keeps his weight/hands back extremely well. This, I believe, will play favorably for the Twins.

Conclusions:

Without the availability of data (platoon splits, batted ball numbers, etc) to marry along with the visual report, it’s hard to paint an accurate picture of Nishioka’s true potential. Still, I believe we can make a few assumptions on what is future will be stateside.

In addition to posting his career-high marks in 2010, Patrick Newman at Fangraphs.com noted that Nishioka’s overall BABIP was .389 last season. Without context of how that fits in with the Japanese standard, it is a number that is absurdly high over here. Only two MLB players finished the season with better BABIPs than that – the reigning AL MVP Josh Hamilton and Austin Jackson. Typically, major leaguers have a BABIP near the league norm of .294. The natural conclusion is that Nishioka will likely experience some drainage in his BABIP in converting to the professional ranks on this side of the Pacific, resulting in a depression of his overall batting average as well as shaving off some points from his on-base percentage. Because of this, Newman believed that Nishioka’s batting line would probably resemble that of either Ryan Theriot (.284/.348/.356 career hitter) or Chone Figgins (.287/.359/.376). Both hitters are archetypal high contact, high line drive/ground ball tendencies with little power behind their swings but practice zen-like zone judgment. Essentially, they are above-average at avoiding outs but will not be a contributing power factor.

While Newman points to Theriot and Figgins as Nishioka’s potential comparables, after reviewing Nishioka’s video, I’m not entirely convinced these are appropriate comparisons. For one, Theriot is strictly a right-handed hitter and has not had a career full of success against same-sided pitching. With Nishioka able to exercise a platoon advantage over Theriot, there is ample room for better numbers. Figgins, meanwhile, has never shown any semblance of home run power, even in the minors. Whereas Nishioka has hit home runs in the teens the past three seasons in Japan, the most Figgins ever hit in development leagues was 7 in a very hitter-friendly atmosphere of the Pacific Coast League (AAA). Figgins, on the other hand, doesn’t use much of his lower extremities when it comes to his swing. Like a Denard Span, Figgins utilizes quick, strong wrists to hit his line drives. While I wouldn’t anticipate Nishioka popping off for 12 or 15 home runs, especially given the configurations of his potential new ballpark, he does have more power generation in his mechanics and could come close to reaching double-digits.

Furthermore, the line drive/groundball-oriented Nishioka will also have to contest with the natural environments that are found at the stateside stadiums and ballparks. While playing in the Pacific League, Nishioka’s venues included stadiums that were all decorated with artificial surfaces – assisting in the acceleration of groundballs past helpless infielders. This faux-grass undoubtedly aided in his .293 career batting average in Japan (and possibly added a few extra base hits that split the gaps and whistled into corners of the plastic field). His transition into a league that has only two stadiums with artificial turf will likely cause some of those carpetburners to slow up in the grass. After all, considering that both Joe Mauer and Denard Span – two of the lineup’s most prevalent groundballers – lost a significant chunk off of their groundball BABIPs after relocating from the Metrodome to Target Field (Mauer’s 38 points lower while Span’s 54 points was significantly lower), it is not a stretch to assume that Nishioka could befall the same fate on a similar scale.

While that portion of the landscape may hinder his numbers, there may be some benefit to the structure off of Twins Way.

Minnesota has quickly learned that power is rendered almost useless 81 days a year at Target Field. Because of that, signing/acquiring someone with marginal power is not a sound solution. Unless a dead-pull power hitter is available, anyone that utilizes the gaps and center as their land spot will have serious troubles trying to maintain their current home run pace. This would wreak further havoc on their overall numbers if that player isn’t a line drive hitter that direction.

For example, last year Danny Valencia found Minnesota to be a safe haven – hitting .387/.461/.561 at Target Field. This is because his style of play fits well within the confines. According to Inside Edge, Valenica sent 21.3% of all his in play balls to center field. Of those hit towards center, 22% were line drives and resulting in a .376 BABIP in that direction (well-above the .263 league-average). With the extra vacant land in center, it is no small wonder Valencia gained additional hits there. Likewise, Denard Span was also markedly better on his home turf. Despite road woes and troubles getting groundballs for hits, Span hit .301/.371/.390 at the Target Field. Like Valencia, Span also favors smacking line drives to center field (21.7%) and wound up with an above-average BABIP in that direction too (.286). If Nishioka can continue hitting to all fields like it appears in his video, he may replicate Valencia and Span’s success.

Needless to say, Newman is correct in anticipating some degeneration of his Nippon career numbers as he acclimates to the improved competition and new surfaces not made of polypropylene. However, because Target Field appears to reward players that use the middle of the yard for line drive demonstrations, the Twins and Nishioka could find his new home extremely accommodating to his style of hitting. 

Gibson ousts Hicks as Baseball America's Twins top prospect

This morning, Baseball America announced their selection for the Top Ten Twins prospect for the 2011 season:

This shouldn’t be viewed as an affront to Hicks, the previous season’s anointed number one prospect for the Twins. After a rather gruff introduction at low-A Beloit, hitting .251/.350/.382 (732 OPS) in 297 plate appearances, he bounced back in his 20-year-old season at the same level. In 518 plate appearances, Hicks posted a .279/.401/.428 (829 OPS) batting line thanks in part to a bump in his walk rate (13.5% to 17.1%) combined with a significant spike in his BABIP (from .307 to .362) in spite of a slight decline in his line drive rate. Because of his growth in walk rate, it’s not surprising to find that Hicks was deemed the player with the organization’s Best Strike-Zone Discipline in addition to being labeled Best Defensive Outfielder and Best Defensive Arm.

With these kinds of skills, Hicks could be a top three prospect in most organizations across the league. However, with high-A Ft Myers as his next stop in this development process, he is still fairly far away from contributing at the major league-level. Barring any unforeseen acceleration, the earliest we will see him in a Twins uniform is probably 2012.

That may be why Gibson draws an slight advantage over Hicks. Baseball America submits this disclaimer as their basis for their selections:

“Baseball America's Top 10 Prospects lists are based on projections of a player's long-term worth after discussions with scouting and player-development personnel.”

John Manuel, editor at Baseball America, frequently has had Major League-ready pitching talent topping his list. In 2008, Manuel surprised many by anointing the 26-year-old Nick Blackburn the team's top prospect. Blackburn, a contact-oriented righty who had finished the ’07 season going 10-6 with an 83/21 K/BB ratio in 160.1 innings split between New Britain, Rochester and the Twins, was hardly universally accepted as a blue-chip talent. In an interview with www.NoMaas.org, Manuel said that he “stuck his neck out” with that selection. When Carlos Silva left via free agency, Blackburn indeed cracked the rotation in the spring, leading the team in starts, innings pitched and was even tapped to start the decisive Game 163 against the White Sox in Chicago. Manuel, rather pleased with his choice’s career thus far, also sponsor’s Blackburn’s Baseball-Reference.com page.

All things considered, Blackburn was the only member of that class of prospect to contribute at the major league-level in '08 while Jeff Manship and Brian Duensing provided some innings in '09. Going back to Baseball America's citation of a player's "long-term worth", Blackburn clearly fulfilled that requisite by leading the Twins in innings pitched for two consecutive seasons and earning a four-year extension. 

Like Blackburn in ’08, Kyle Gibson figures to be a contributor in the near future, possibly by midseason in 2011. 

After being drafted in ’09, the 22-year-old Gibson stormed through the system in his first year of professional ball, rendering hitters at three different levels punchless and finished the season with an 11-6 record with a 2.96 ERA and a 126/39 K/BB ratio in 152 innings pitched. While his strikeout rate declined as he rose in the organization, his penchant for inciting groundballs remained relatively consistent – from 68% in high-A, 54% in AA and 57% in AAA. The right-hander has impressed people with his poise and his polished repertoire including what the folks at Baseball America consider the system’s Best Slider and Best Changeup.

Dropped from the prior year’s top ten rankings are Wilson Ramos (traded to Washington), Danny Valencia (promoted to Minnesota), Angel Morales, David Bromberg and Max Kepler. Meanwhile, added to the list are Liam Hendriks, Alex Wimmers (2010 draft pick), Adrian Salcedo and Oswaldo Arcia.