Kubel should be a difference maker in postseason

With the Twins making battle plans for the playoffs starting this week against the Yankees, numerous players will be under the microscope. One such player facing scrutiny is Jason Kubel.

Last Friday, Howard Sinker raised the question of why Kubel, whose numbers have sunk into a .249/.323/.427 ravine after peaking at .300/.369/.539 just a year ago, is getting a free pass from criticism – the same type of condemnation that has been bestowed upon the likes of Delmon Young as recently as this season. Similarly, like the local Sinker, Fangraphs.com’s Dave Cameron, a statistically-oriented pundit, took the opportunity highlight Kubel’s disappointing season as validation of his analysis that the Twins’ designated hitter-cum-right fielder has been overvalued, at least based upon the decline from the previous year.

At the beginning of the season, it became apparent that the opposition had grown acutely aware of Kubel’s tendency to decimate fastballs and therefore responded by cutting off his access to such pitches. With the fastball embargo imposed upon him, the left-handed slugger yielded a disappointing .233/.352/.397 batting line through the first two months of the season. As he began to adjust to the new approach and made better contact with breaking pitches, his power numbers began to creep northward, slugging .464 with 18 home runs by the end of August. Even with the progress, Kubel once again regressed in the home stretch. Since the leaves began to change colors and kids started to head back to school, he has been a noticeably missing component of the lineup, unable to get on base routinely (4/19 walk-to-strikeout ratio) and even less prone to driving others in.

In the end, his overall numbers have been considerably reduced; a depressed batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage have added up to, as Sinker suggests, a player ripe for criticism or perhaps even more appropriate for Cameron’s “fluke” label. So what happened to Jason Kubel’s numbers?

Kubel’s 2010 indicators – his walk rate, strikeout rate, and batted ball type – essentially mirrors that of his 2009 season, the one in which he produced the impressive totals. As most analysts saw, that season was blessed with a substantially heighted on-base percentage inflated by an even gaudier batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .327 which was well above the league’s .300 average. Basically, Kubel’s batting average and on-base percentage were buoyed by extra batted balls that fell for hits (particularly line drives and fly balls). As his BABIP began to decrease back towards average (and even drop below it at .287), so too did his overall batting average. Without these hits coupled with his rather average walk rate, Kubel’s on-base percentage normalized this year.   

  

Along the same lines, as the season wore on, Kubel also became increasingly impatient at the plate, foregoing walks in exchange for the swing of the bat and attempting to hit his way aboard. Unfortunately, this pressing translated into fewer walks, more strikeouts and higher contact with out of zone pitches. While this explains Kubel’s drop in average and on-base percentage, that doesn’t adequately explain the sudden decrease in his power numbers.

While this may be a tired song to some, the restrictions of the home field probably shares responsibility for the silencing of the Kubel boomstick.

Target Field isn’t conducive to left-handed power hitters that have enjoyed hitting to center field and right-center for their careers. Perhaps not surprisingly, Kubel enjoyed a very productive and powerful season when driving the ball to center last year. In fact, 11 of his 28 home runs exited the building in that direction while slugging .763. Since transitioning into the roomier outdoor home, Kubel has managed to hit just one of his 21 home runs and slugged .431 going up the middle.

Kubel isn’t the only one terrorized by Target Field’s daunting configuration that area. As you can see from the HitTrackerOnline.com chart provided below, the entire league found that reaching the seats in that direction was highly improbable as only five of the 116 home runs hit at the Bullseye escaped in center to right-center:

Even though the dimensions are similar, it doesn’t necessarily mean that the parks will respond the same. Be it because of the controlled environment, the offensively-friendlier configurations or because of well-positioned air conditioning vents, the Metrodome’s center field and right-center power alley boasted a significantly better proposition for straightaway and a slight pull left-handed hitter. Reviewing the chart from HitTrackerOnline.com from 2009, we see that the Homer Dome had a whole hot mess of long balls depart the playing surface there:

As you can see, in contrast to the Metrodome, Target Field provides little favors for the lefty.  Attempting to drive the ball to center is likely to result in a long fly out. In terms of the impending playoffs, Kubel’s success with the home field advantage may come by (1) increasing his patience at the plate or (2) by pulling the ball more, giving him a higher likelihood of hitting that home run.

However, unlike Bear Stearns, Kubel’s stock in New York City may skyrocket in the next week. Contrary to the layout of Target Field, New Yankee Stadium’s center field and right-center field is very inviting for left-handed hitters. While deeper than Target in right-center, the ball carries much better in that stadium, giving lefties a significant advantage:

In summation, while Kubel’s contributions to the offense have been disappointing or fluky, the postseason represents an opportunity to start anew. Certainly, limiting the options to Target Field and New Yankee Stadium gives the lefty the potential to emerge from his season-long lull and provide the lineup with much needed thunder.  

Is Blackburn having mechanical issues?

Tuesday night’s game witnessed a significant deviation from what has become expected of Nick Blackburn since his recall.

After being sprung from the boondocks of northwestern New York, Blackburn had consistently enticed opponents to beat the ball into the turf. With the exception of one start in Seattle, the Twins right-hander has been able to coerce more groundballs than fly balls -- groundball’s less attractive cousin. This was a strong indication that he had rediscovered his sink on his two-seamer, one of two tasks he was asked to perform when he was sent back down to Rochester.

This departure from the recent batted ball results may raise (tiny) flags for the Twins anticipated fourth starter in the postseason:

Nick Blackburn’s batted ball distribution
	Groundballs	Fly Balls	Line Drives
8/25-9/22	86 (53.4%)	54 (33.5%)	21 (13.0%)
9/28	6 (30%)	11 (55%)	3 (15%)

Obviously, this is an insanely small sample size to draw any real conclusion however several questions can be present that examines why the results differed so greatly from the rest of September.

As noted above, during his demotion Blackburn was directed to work on two things that had been hindering his season: his off-speed stuff and his mechanics.

Since returning to Minnesota, Blackburn has enhanced his variety and changed his speeds extremely well. Likewise, his polished mechanics has led to additional sink on his two-seamer. This combination had yielding a tremendous stretch of starts in which Blackburn had posted a 1.97 ERA as opponents appeared flummoxed at the new-look Nick.

Unfortunately, the Royals put the kibosh on that feelgoodery.

While still working in his changeup and curveball, staying true to his newfound art of variety, Blackburn was roasted on his two-seamer as Kansas City smeared that pitch across the Missouri night sky. With opponents elevating his two-seamer all over the place, this raised the issue of whether or not his mechanics had retreated to his pre-demotion days.

Following Tuesday night’s outing, Blackburn dismissed that sentiment:

"I'm really not concerned about what happened tonight. Obviously, I'm not happy about it, but I'm not too concerned. I've been throwing the ball well lately. My mechanics -- didn't feel like there were any issues there. That's been my problem the whole season whenever things aren't going well. Tonight I just wasn't hitting spots."

In a contrast to what the starter would say, during the FSN postgame show, Robby Incmikoski noted that Ron Gardenhire told reporters in the clubhouse that pitching coach Rick Anderson noticed something in Nick Blackburn’s delivery that may have influenced his ability to get the proper sink on his fastball and thus incite grounders.

Without access to the video of the start (TwinsBaseball.com posts only “highlights” and this start was anything but), examining the pitch through MLB.com’s pitch f/x system might be the next most telling data source.

Reviewing the movement at TexasLeaguers.com, we can see that there is a discrepancy in the overall “downward” movement of his two-seamer. As a primer, below is Mike Fast’s introductory chart of how pitches should move based on their spin. In short, the lower the area, the more “downward” action a pitch has (splitters and changeups have this sort of motion). Similarly, the more the pitch winds up to the right of the axis, the more lateral movement a pitch has (hence sliders, curves and cutters are typically to the right of the axis).

During his tumultuous early season struggles, Blackburn’s main pitch, the two-seamed fastball, had little drop in it on Tuesday night:

Granted, this pitch reflects the type of movement a two-seamer is supposed to have, yet it is not the same motion it has when Blackburn has his varsity squad two-seamer working. This type of movement was very reminiscent of his pre-demotion days:

Now compare those two to the drop of his two-seamer from August 25^th onward:

Clearly, Blackburn’s two-seamer had far less drop on it than it had in the prior six starts. Given Rick Anderson’s ability to diagnose pitchers well, it is likely that something went astray in his mechanics causing the sinking fastball to stay up in the zone.

For Blackburn, the question is whether this is a slight mechanical hiccup or a complete derailment from his progress established since returning from Rochester. As a pitcher on the bubble for being a spot in the playoff rotation, Blackburn has one more start left to prove that it was the former rather than the latter. 

OtB Twins Notes

According to the PiPress’s John Shipley, Carl Pavano reviewed video footage of his outing on Saturday – trying to make sense of the five-run, fifth inning outburst he allowed to the Tigers which included a trifecta of home runs. “I look at some of the sequences I used against different guys, and maybe I was a little strong. Physically I felt great. I feel strong. I felt good coming out of the pen.” The Twins starter told reporters. Clearly, after allowing home runs on 0-2 and 1-2 counts to Alex Aviles and Don Kelly (both on fastballs), Pavano may want to reconsider throw either his slider (6.2 runs above average) or changeup (10.4 runs above average) which have been very effective for the veteran.

In the top of the fifth on Saturday, Jason Repko was drilled by an Eddie Bonine 0-2 88-mile per hour fastball that caught the right fielder in the top hand while holding the bat. According to MLB.com’s Kelly Theiser, the x-rays came back negative for any structural damage. Repko was lifted for Ben Revere. (Revere would finish the night 0-for-3, failing to drive J.J. Hardy home from scoring position twice.) Repko, having cooled off considerably himself since his hot start following his call-up, has hit just .169/.272/.169 since August 11^th and has not had an extra base hit in those 81 plate appearances. No matter, Repko has provided an upgrade defensively over Jason Kubel in the outfield. While   Kubel has save -2 runs in 609 innings in right, Repko has been +2 in is 218 defensive innings according to John Dewan’s Plus/Minus accounting system.

Speaking of defense, it is plays like this one by Orlando Hudson, making a diving catch on a seemingly uncatchable ball, that reaffirms why the Twins second baseman is currently the Plus/Minus leader among second baseman (+23).

While his defensive has been spectacular and steady, Hudson has had his offensive numbers plummet dramatically over the second-half of the season, particularly in the month of September. After coming into the month with an above-average .358 on-base percentage, that number has dropped to .337 after failing to reach base in seven plate appearances on Saturday. Opponents have attacked Hudson consistently in September, throwing him pitches in the zone regularly in September (52%). Unlike last month where the switch-hitting Hudson produced a .358 BABIP, the balls that the second baseman is putting into play just aren’t finding turf this month (.233 BABIP). Equally responsible for the decline in OBP is Hudson’s inability to draw walks. Much like Span earlier in the season, Hudson’s has had a sudden disappearance in free passes – a byproduct of opponents attacking the strike zone more this month (52% zone rate). His .187 OBP for the month of September is only better than the Angels Alberto Callaspo and Peter Bourjos.

Denard Span fouled a ball off of his right foot on Saturday and was excused from Sunday’s game. This minor incident comes on the heels of his MRI on his right shoulder, necessitated by soreness in the area dating back to a June series in Oakland. The Twins center fielder told ESPN1500’s Phil Mackey that he was experiencing discomfort during his swing on his follow-through and extension. After a rebound month of May, Span’s totals dropped considerably, particularly after the West Coast roadtrip in which the injury occurred – hitting .275/.333/.362 since then in 407 plate appearances.

According to Inside Edge, Danny Valencia’s .398 average against left-handed pitchers is currently fourth best in baseball. Likewise, his .211 well-hit average on pitches up in the zone is third-best in baseball.

Even with a back injury, one that may be worse than initial thought, Jim Thome’s .784 slugging percentage against fastballs is the best in baseball. This is a significant improvement over his .457 slugging from a year ago.

FoxSport’s Jon Morosi wrote two columns on topics that may influence the Twins’ postseason. The first being the Morneau discussion, indicating that GM Bill Smith isn’t nearly as dismissive of a return from the first baseman as the field manager is. The second outlines the concerns surrounding Francisco Liriano has the team’s number one starter in the ALDS. Certainly Liriano has been dominant at times yet he has also flashed moments of being overwhelmed.  Still, while Morosi considered it a “question mark”, his ESPN.com counterpart, Tim Kurkjian, proclaimed it a “fitting choice for a pitcher who has had a terrific season.”

Pat Neshek gives us an inside look at the Twins rookie hazing. My personal favorite is the spot-on Ace & Gary tandem of Jeff Manship and Drew Butera.

At the Hardball Times, Chris Jaffe took to the task of assigning all major league teams a Simpson character. The Twins got labeled Waylon Smithers. Not sure how I feel about this but his explanation was on the mark. 

Celebrating Brian Duensing

Back on July 9, the Twins were mired in the midst of losing spell. They had dropped 13 of their past 20 contests and fans were subjected to a pummeling at the claws of the then division-leading Tigers.

That day in Motown, Francisco Liriano had lasted just one full inning plus two additional outs in the second but relinquished seven earned runs, hitting two batters and walking another pair.  The unofficial ace of the staff, Liriano had not recorded a win in any of his previous four starts (almost a month without a victory) and had compiled a nasty 6.75 ERA despite a very strong 30-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 26.2 innings. Liriano aside, in that particular stretch of baseball, the entire rotation appeared in disarray.

It was on that day, with the team three games down to the Tigers and carrying a seemingly fried pitching staff, which the team learned of Texas’s acquisition of Seattle’s Cliff Lee.

Just a few weeks prior, columnist Jim Souhan dropped an article that implored the Twins to execute the swap. His reasoning (like many of us) was that:

“[T]he starting pitching is just not good enough to propel the Twins to a playoff victory over a big-money team. The current rotation might not even be good enough to win the AL Central.”

Lee was the Ron Burgundy of the pitching world; he threw pitches so fine, he made Liriano look like a hobo. Conventionally, he was on top of the mountain. He was carrying an 8-3 record in 13 starts coupled with an otherworldly 14.83 K/BB ratio. For us statheads, Lee was also rocking a 3.21 xFIP that had us amped up at the computers in our mothers’ basements, tweeting away lustfully at the idea of having him during the postseason.

After the news came through to the visiting clubhouse in Detroit that the Rangers were the victors in the Lee sweepstakes, veteran pitcher Carl Pavano spoke diplomatically about the news:

"The reality of it is we have what we need here, and we have to do it. It doesn't change anything whether we do or don't get him. It doesn't change what each person in this locker room has to do, and that's go out and play good baseball. For myself personally, it's going out and winning ballgames."

The Twins’ wizened, feather-duster sporting member of the rotation was correct in assuming that the team had to move on with the hand that was dealt. But, too, in many ways, Souhan was correct: That current rotation was not going to cut it in the Central.

Nick Blackburn had completely unraveled and was unable to figure out how to keep opponents from smashing the ball all over the field. He would make just three more starts post-July 9th, allowing 15 runs in 11 innings with a gaudy .750 opponent slugging percentage that would require a trip back to Rochester to figure out how to stop throwing pitches as delicious as bacon. Once thought of to be a candidate to be exchanged for the vaunted Lee, Blackburn would be ousted from the rotation.

In what was typically Blackburn’s spot in the rotation, the Twins plugged in left-hander Brian Duensing. Paired mainly against left-handed opponents, Duensing had done a fabulous job out of the pen, working 43 innings and allowing just eight runs on his watch thanks to a low .214 opponent average. On July 23, a 96-degree night in Maryland and limited to a strict 70-pitch night due to the lack of endurance built up, Duensing held the offensively-challenged Baltimore Orioles to one run over five innings. A Joe Mauer two-run home run in the top of the sixth put the Twins up by one but the lead would disintegrate at the hands of the bullpen.

Since that abbreviated first start, Duensing would supply the Twins with 10 more starts (and an added relief appearance two days after a start to boot), holding opponents to a 2.54 ERA as well as a devilish 666 OPS. The Twins would go 8-3 in those 11 appearances while Duensing would go 7-1, his only personal loss being to Cliff Lee’s new team.

For his part, Lee was having a rough introduction to his new organization. In his first outing against the Orioles, the same lineup that Duensing would shut down a few days later, the lefty threw a complete game but allowed three home runs and six runs in the smaller, overheated bandbox than he was previously used to in Seattle. Including that game, Lee has made 13 starts, posting a rather un-Lee-like 4.10 ERA (despite a very similar 3.26 xFIP from his Seattle days) thanks to another 11 home runs allowed and the Rangers would be the proud owners of a 5-8 record in his starts.

To be sure, Lee has pitched remarkably well in the Lone Star State, as evidence by his very good expected fielding independent numbers. Simply put, the confines have changed. While only 4% of his fly balls managed to escape the park on him when in a Mariners uniform (once again, attributed to that offensive-depleting Safeco) he’s suffered a plexiglass effect once in the hotter Texas air as 9% of his fly balls escaped (closer to his career average).

Meanwhile, Duensing has been nothing short of extraordinary for the Twins. While often overlooked, Duensing delivers stuff dirtier than most observers realize which completely neutralizes left-handed opponents. Because of this fact, opponents have made significant adjustments to their lineups, removing some otherwise left-handed hitting threats, because of Duensing’s capabilities. In all, the southpaw has supplied Minnesota with 1.583 Wins Probability Added while his counterpart in Lee has procured 0.194 Wins Probability Added for his Rangers.

It’s hard to say what sort of production Lee would have if he were pitching in an environment at Target Field which is closer to that of Safeco. Frankly, to say that the Twins didn’t need Cliff Lee would be disingenuous as anyone would admit they would welcome an arm like Lee’s during the postseason. However, by not trading either Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey, Wilson Ramos or Ben Revere to obtain the lefty, the Twins were able to retain at least one starter for the playoffs (the trip to Rochester has done wonders for Blackburn) while adding depth to the bullpen by later trading Ramos for Matt Capps at the trade deadline. What’s more is that Duensing has been equally as good, if not better, than Lee at zero cost to the Twins organization.

In the end, the Rangers would have likely made it to the playoffs without the assistance of Cliff Lee, sitting comfortably with an eight –game lead over Oakland. And certainly Lee makes them a better once in the postseason. On the other hand, there is a distinct possibility that the Twins would not be champagne-drenched without the emergence of Brian Duensing. For that, the non-trade needs to be celebrated.

Valencia's power generation

Since his arrival in early June, Danny Valencia has sustained a very solid batting average and supplemented that with an equally outstanding on-base percentage (buoyed by batted ball inflation but will discuss that this offseason). His fairly compact, contact-oriented swing produced numerous line drives and several that ran the gap for extra bases helping elevate his slugging percentage to respectable levels. Still, like his numbers in the upper minor leagues, home runs were hit at a premium.

In his first 257 plate appearances with the Twins, Valencia socked just a pair of round-trippers – this coming after not hitting any in Rochester in another 202 plate appearances. Suddenly, over the course of the past five games and 20 plate appearances, the third baseman has tagged opponents for three home runs, giving the Twins an added long ball threat in the lower part of the order as of late.

Here we see Valencia’s isolated power average steadily rising as the season progresses:

Prior to last night’s game, FSN’s sideline reporter, Ron Coomer, offered his analysis of Valencia’s swing mechanics, noting that the key to his recent power bender has been the rookie’s ability to make contact out in front of his body therefore leveraging his lower half of his body and generating more torque to launch the ball deep into the September night sky. Said Coomer: 

“The thing that he has been doing lately is he’s been catching the ball out in front. Great stiff front side, great extension with his head snapping down. When he’s hitting the ball out front, he’s driving it out of the park.”

Coomer’s observation of Valencia’s leverage is spot-on however the FSN commentator overlooked a critical element that has been a large factor for his surge: his leg kick. 

Prior to the Cleveland series, Valencia had a muted leg kick. While at a slight open-stance, the righty would make a small step towards the plate, then rock back on his front foot while keeping his toe planted with the exception for a small lift to transfer his weight back. From this side view during a game against Seattle in August, here is a shot of the apex of Valenica’s loading:

This was Valencia completely loaded and beginning his drive towards the ball.

Now compare that to his more recent swing in which Valencia lifts his front leg and drives forward at the pitcher – generating added power from his legs then he had down in the past:

Clearly, this shot, captured during his home run against Jeanmar Gomez on September 20^th, reveals that Valencia his loading his weight significantly better leading to his ability to drive the ball out in front of his body with that aforementioned leverage noted by Ron Coomer. This lower-half shift helps generate additional power that his previous mechanics which are heavily reliant on his upper body.

The following night, on September 21^st, Valencia drove in a pair of runs on a single, we were privy to another angle of this revamped mechanics to compare to the previous version. Back in August, we can see how little of lift Valencia used in his front leg:

Comparatively, here’s the same angle before his single in September:

The early returns for Valencia’s adjusted mechanics are favorable. His keen batting eye and connectivity have been complimented with a fusion of power, helping give the Twins a very deep lineup. He’s hitting the ball with more vigor and, with the playoffs looming less than two weeks away, the timing could not have been better for Valencia.