Pavano meeting expectations

As Carl Pavano breezed through what had become a very potent Phillie lineup in the two previous games, while tossing his second complete game of the year, he reduced his earned run average to 3.65 - a substantial improvement over his 5.10 ERA from a year ago.
Of course, this production shouldn’t have been unanticipated. Back in January when Pavano accepted the team’s offer of arbitration, I wrote:

To this day, a vast majority of the baseball world places an ungodly amount of emphasis on numbers like the ERA. Yes, it demonstrates that, superficially, Pavano’s season was sub-par however it does not indicate how he actually pitched. His left-on-base rate (66 percent) was well-below league average while his average on batted balls in play (.335) was much higher than the norm. He maintained a very good strikeout rate (6.6 K/9) and did not allow many walks (1.8 BB/9). If he posts similar peripherals next season, his LOB rate and BABIP numbers are almost certain to regress towards the mean. In short, his ERA should end up substantially lower in 2010.

Up to this point in the season, everything stated has more or less come to fruition. His strikeouts are down slightly (5.5 K/9) but he has compensated for that by walking fewer batters (1.4 BB/9), but for all intents and purposes, his peripheral numbers this season are essentially identical to his 2009 marks. Additionally, his previously below average left-on-base rate in ’09 has retreated back toward the average (71.9%) while his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) have dropped considerable too (.288). The results have been a 3.65 ERA through 14 starts – trailing only Francisco Liriano in the pitching staff.

The retention of his peripheral numbers is not surprising. While he’s not necessarily a strikeout pitcher, Pavano’s got enough dirt in his repertoire to get hitters to miss or freeze them cold. After leading baseball with 31.6% out-of-zone swings, Pavano is once again pacing the field, getting swings on 36.4% of his out-of-zone pitches. His changeup has been particularly lethal in getting hitters to pursue as opponents have strayed after the pitch frequently, 41% of the time, leading to a high amount of groundballs in play. To put that chase rate into perspective, Francisco Liriano’s slider incites a hitter to chase after it 48% of the time it is thrown out of the zone. This has equated to the sixth-best changeup in American League (6.4 wCH).

Furthermore, Pavano throws strikes, plain and simple. As it stands, Pavano trails only Seattle’s Cliff Lee and teammate Scott Baker in the highest percentage of first pitch strikes. What’s more is that while the rest of the league’s pitchers are able to get a strike with one of their first two pitches in a plate appearance 85% of the match-ups, Pavano has done so in 90% of his. Working ahead allows him to throw his changeups and other breaking pitches regularly where he succeeds at getting hitters to make contact with out-of-zone pitches.

His batting average on balls in play has been trimmed thanks to the offseason strengthening of the infield defense combined with more At ‘Em balls. Pavano’s groundball rate has remained consistent the past two seasons, hovering slightly above the league average. After turning in a .261 BABIP on groundballs in ’09, Pavano maintains a much lighter one at .200 this season. Part of the reason for the decline in this area is personnel related. Last year while splitting the season in Cleveland and Minnesota, the Indians and Twins had some extremely weak middle infield defense. The decision to sign Orlando Hudson and trade for J.J. Hardy while playing the defense-first Nick Punto at third has helped Pavano, as well as the rest of the pitching staff, dramatically. Now the Twins boast baseball’s best marks at short, sixth-best at second and fifth-best at third:

Twins’ UZR/150	Short	Second	Third	Twins BABIP on GB
2009	-1.3	-6.1	5.9	.259
2010	16.6	15.3	15.5	.229

(via Fangraphs.com)

Lastly, and possibly his biggest area of improvement, has been the correction of his splits against right-handed opponents. In ’09, right-handed opposition hit .317/.345/.504 off of him. So far through his 14 starts, Pavano has limited the same pool of hitters to a .238/.267/.384 batting line.

It goes without saying that there is still plenty of baseball left and approximately 16 or so starts for things to rattle off the tracks for the big mustachioed righty, however, Pavano has been invaluable to this point in the season, providing 10 quality starts in 14 outings. From this vantage point, the $7 million dollar investment in the starting pitcher has been wildly successful for the Twins.

Have pitchers adjusted to Mauer?

In efforts to explain the drop-off in Joe Mauer’s home run totals from 2009, Bloomberg Sports, an outstanding analytical entity, offers yet another theory: Pitchers are adjusting to Mauer.

Maybe pitchers are attacking Mauer differently too. This argument could potentially explain some of the catcher's power struggles. Pitchers, in fact, have been unwilling to throw him fastballs in certain counts, and seem to have replaced them with changeups, and occasionally curveballs.

Abstaining from throwing fastballs to the league’s best fastball hitter in 2009 would seem like a fairly good place to start if you were attempting to subdue his offensive onslaught. After all, Mauer swatted 27 of his 28 home runs leading to an AL-best .691 slugging percentage on fastballs. Nevertheless, at first blush, the repertoire used against him in 2010 is strikingly similar to the strategy deployed on him in 2009. Using the numbers supplied at Fangraphs.com, we find that opponents are tossing fastball at him most than 60% of the time mixed in with sliders and changeups augmented by the occasional curve. This is fairly consistent with the career norms.

However, like the article from Bloomberg indicates, once we dissect the individual pitch selection during specific counts, it reveals a much different tendency this season. For example, during the 2-1 count, a situation where a year ago Mauer slugged 9 of his 28 home runs, the catcher was thrown 4-seam fastballs half of the time. This year, pitchers have toned down the amount of straight fastballs to him:

2-1 count	4-seamer	2-seamer	Slider	Change	Curve
2010	43%	12%	10%	17%	3%
2009	50%	5%	15%	12%	7%

(via pitchfx.texasleaguers.com)

When you consider the success he had against 4-seamers in his career - particularly during a hitter’s count such as this where you would expect a fastball - the decision to alter the approach makes complete sense. Though it might not seem like much, the additional movement and variation in velocity has kept the reigning MVP from getting the same loft on his swing as he did the previous season. Last year Mauer hit fly balls 42% of the time during 2-1 counts but this season he’s lifting only 15% of balls in play in this situation. Likewise, the different look has enticed Mauer to turn the ball over more frequently, hitting groundballs 60% of the time.

Similarly, during the 1-1 count in which Mauer also launched another 4 home runs last year, pitchers are reluctant to feed him as many 4-seamers, instead changing speeds with more changeups and curves:

1-1 count	4-seamer	2-seamer	Slider	Change	Curve
2010	39%	8%	12%	17%	10%
2009	47%	3%	16%	15%	8%

(via pitchfx.texasleaguers.com)

Also, in efforts to disrupt his timing, pitchers have started him off with more curveballs:

First pitch	4-seamer	2-seamer	Slider	Change	Curve
2010	51%	9%	7%	7%	11%
2009	59%	4%	11%	7%	5%

(via pitchfx.texasleaguers.com)

This has seemingly kept him from pouncing on the first pitch for a home run as he did three times last year.

To be sure, there is no one reason as to why Mauer's home run totals spiked so suddenly in 2009 and dropped so dramatically this season. It has most likely been a concoction of several factors. As the writer at Bloomberg Sports pointed out, it appears that Mauer is no longer afforded the luxury of jumping on straight fastballs like he did in hitter’s counts last year. This - combined with Target Field’s home run restrictive nature (5th least home run conducive ballpark in MLB) and a regression to his career home runs-to-fly ball rate - provides some insight as to why the Twins catcher has been unable to pepper the bleachers thus far in the season.

Twins in on Lowell?

 

On Monday, La Velle E Neal wrote in his blog that the Twins and Boston Red Sox were in communication over the possibility of shipping third baseman Mike Lowell to Minnesota. At 36 years old, Lowell, who is hitting a trifling .215/.311/.354, is potentially on his last leg of his career. While his peripherals suggest that he might be a better hitter that his current slashes suggest, he’s slowly being phased out of Boston nonetheless. Even with the possibility of better days for the aging third baseman, there is no indication that he would discover them at Target Field.

For the past two seasons Fenway Park has been a savior for Lowell’s stat line. In 2009 Lowell hit .307/.344/.588 with 12 home runs and 20 doubles in 199 plate appearances at Fenway. Away from the claustrophobic left field in Boston, Lowell’s numbers took a considerable downturn. In 246 plate appearances outside of Beantown, Lowell hit .276/.331/.382 with just 5 home runs and 9 doubles.

This season, limited by nagging injuries and nowhere to play him, Lowell has not seen much of the field. Nevertheless in the small sample size in 2010 the same pattern emerges in his home and away splits. In his 61 plate appearances at Fenway, Lowell has shown glimpses of power, hitting his only 2 home runs and 5 doubles leading to a .462 slugging percentage inside Massachusetts. Meanwhile in his 29 plate appearances away from Boston, Lowell has no extra base hits and a miniscule .148 slugging percentage.

Visually, we can clearly see that his power numbers (Isolated Power) have dropped off the chart (literally) in his home/road splits:

As a pull-power hitter, Lowell used the left field wall to his advantage, sending numerous shots towards that area in the past two seasons but found little solace in the vast real estate of center or right field:

Slugging %:	Pull	Center	Opposite Field
2008	.801	.330	.250
2009	.741	.319	.257
2010	.633	.350	.105
Career	.788	.587	.499

 

For someone that has maintained a decent productive pace in 2008 and 2009, Fenway was a bastion for him. Fenway’s left field dimension is infinitely more inviting than other AL ballparks as the foul pole measures just 310 feet away from home plate and meanders outward towards center with a power alley of 379. Comparatively, Target Field starts at 339 then grows to 377 in the power alley.

 

While an upgrade over Nick Punto at third isn’t without consideration, without the proximity to the inviting left field wall, Target Field has the potential of keeping Lowell from resurrecting his power numbers. Furthermore, Lowell lacks the defense prowess that Punto adds when listed at the corner infield position (Punto’s currently 5th with a +9 on John Dewan’s Plus/Minus among third basemen). Last year when he was able to field third base for more than 800 innings, Lowell amasses a -23 (35th among qualified third basemen), particularly brutal at groundballs to his left (-17).  So while Lowell would provide an offensive boost, he is unquestionably a step back in defensive quality.

But let’s not dismiss Lowell that quickly.

Essentially, any acquisition of Mike Lowell would act as a replacement for Brendan Harris. In the beginning of the year, the Twins had Harris tapped as the right-hander available for playing time against left-handed pitching, be it in a fielding or DHing capacity. For his part, Harris hasn’t hit anything thrown by any arm. Loaded with left-handed heavy bench options (Thome, Kubel, et al), the Twins require someone to fill the role of part-time righty that Harris was originally slated to be.  After all, the road to the World Series runs through teams that have the likes of CC Sabathia, Andy Pettite and David Price.

If Boston is willing to absorb some of the $12 million owed to the veteran, the Twins have enough C-and-B list prospects to placate the Red Sox front office. It has the makings of a cheap solution if the Twins are willing to address the right problem.

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Other items of note:

• The fourth TwinsCentric Viewing Party of the season is scheduled for this Saturday at the Park Tavern in St Louis Park when the Twins take on the Phightin' Phillies at 3:10. The good people at the PT have made their 11th Frame available to our group as well as drink specials and appetizer discounts. Come and enjoy the game and some beverages with fellow Twins fans. Also, patrons will have the opportunity to win tickets to Target Field, a 10-person bowling party with free pizza courtesy of the Park Tavern, free drinks and other various prizes. 
• At DiamondCentric, we have released two new t-shirts designs of two players of the more mixed bagged variety: Nick Punto and Michael Cuddyer. 

"Love him or hate him, Nick Punto has been an institution in the Twins lineup since 2004. Knock him all you want but no one else in bseball shows as much grit as this five-foot-nine-inch dynamo does. Watch him make acrobatic throws, perpendicular to the ground or dive headlong (albeit needlessly) into first base. Watch as he scampers around the bases as if someone used him to soak up a coffee spill in the clubhouse. While you are watching Punto emit scarp everywhere in Target Field this year, make sure you are watching him in your very own storm grey "Punto Plays Dirty" t-shirt."

"Equipped with substandard range in the outfield, which is compensated for by a howitzer of an arm, Micheal Cuddyer has been crushing wrong-handed pitching in Minnesota since 2001. With almost a decade of his dimply mug in the lineup and providing post-game sound bites, we all feel like Cuddy is our Buddy. With this t-shirt, you can let the rest of the world know it too."

Shifting Mauer up would strengthen Twins lineup

Prior to Orlando Hudson’s injury on May 30^th, the Twins were experiencing one of their best seasons from their two-hitter in over a decade. As a catalyst for the offensive, Hudson was rocking a fatty .377 on-base percentage while scoring a team-leading 39 runs and driving in 16 more. Because of this output and consistent ability to reach base, the Twins averaged nearly five runs per game.

Since being relegated to watching his teammates from the bench the past ten games, the lineup has been a void of emptiness at the two-spot. First shortstop J.J. Hardy was moved into the vacancy followed by a dose of Matt Tolbert after Hardy excused himself with a wrist injury of his own. In 40 plate appearances, the duo combined to go 4-for-36 (.111), scored three runs (all by Tolbert) and have made an out in 85% of the time.  The Twins scoring decreased to almost four runs per game in that duration.

Up to this point Hudson has been the textbook two-hitter – getting on base, adding some speed while occasionally tapping into his power supply (.421 slugging, 15 extra base hits). Needless to say, with this readily available, it did not take much forethought when filling out a lineup card. Now the two-spot has slowed the offense down and begs the question: why is the two-spot so important and how do we fix it?

Back in March, MLB.com’s Brian McTaggert wrote a piece highlighting the shift in what managers around baseball desired in a number two hitter: Power and speed. Writes McTaggert:

For years, the kind of player that managers wanted to put in the No. 2 spot in a batting order was someone who could hit behind runners, drop down a bunt and set the table for the big bats in the lineup. They didn't get much of the glory, but they were as vital to the offense as the streak-of-lightning leadoff hitter or barrel-chested sluggers.

This was the accepted baseball wisdom, one in which legendary manager Earl Weaver detailed in his 1988 book,Weaver on Strategy. At that time, the long-time Baltimoreskipper proclaimed that his ideal two-hitter “is a good bunter. The thinking is that the number-two hitter will bunt or hit-and-run the leadoff man into scoring position.” Essentially, a hitter with a high contact rate and bat control, reaching base safely was not necessarily a prerequisite.  

Several years prior to Weaver’s book, researcher Bill James, now a member of the Boston Red Sox front office, found this practice to be detrimental to overall offensive production. He urged managers to find a hitter that can avoid outs to fill the space between leadoff and the middle of the order. Of course, with baseball, theories are rarely put into practice overnight. Nevertheless, over time both research and results showed that getting more from your number-two spot is vital for offensive production:

[T]he game has changed, and the role of the No. 2 hitter morphed as well in recent years. Instead of slap hitters who put down bunts and work counts, many teams are opting to have a hitter capable of hitting 20-plus homers batting in the second spot in the order. Brawn over finesse, though having a combination of the two is even better.

Now this philosophy is more readily accepted. For instance, the new Cleveland Indians manager, Manny Acta, is one of several field generals that understand the logic behind this. Said Acta back in March:

"It has changed. You don't need a guy who can just bunt and move the guy over. You need to get him on base a lot because you have the No. 3 and 4 hitters coming up behind him. It's a very key part of the lineup."

To practice what he preached, Acta began this season with center fielder Grady Sizemore, who held a career .367 on-base percentage going into the season, as his two-hitter. Sizemore’s lack of productivity and eventual need for season-ending surgery created another opening. Not to be easily deterred, Acta moved outfielder Shin Soo Choo, possibly the hottest hitter in baseball the month of April and had previously been batting third, into the two-spot. The Indians lineup went from scoring 3.8 runs per game to scoring 4.6 since May 21^st.

Likewise, Joe Maddon, manager of the high-octane Tampa Bay Rays lineup, also concurs with this sentiment:

"I don't think it's as it used to be, when the No. 2 guy was primarily a bunt guy or a hit-and-run guy. For me, a No. 2 hitter has to be kind of a complete hitter ... a combination of speed and the ability to drive in a run."

Unsurprisingly, when you are blessed with a player like Carl Crawford who has a blend of both power and speed like Maddon is, it is easy to look like a genius at constructing lineups. What’s more is that even the players in the lineup grasp the common sense behind having a high on-base guy man the two-spot. Houston Astros first base Lance Berkman understands the importance of the skill set of the hitter in front of him:

"You need a guy that can give you a tough at-bat, even against a great pitcher. I don't think your No. 2 guy has to hit with a lot of power, but I do think he has to have a knack for coming up with big hits because I do think you're going to be in a big situation a lot. The most important thing for me is that a No. 2 hitter makes as few outs as possible, which translates into a high on-base percentage."

This brings us back to the Twins current situation. WithoutHudson, the lineup lacks the fluidity it did when he was healthy. Without a decent substitute, the two-spot has become a blighted area of the lineup. With the above reasoning, it would make complete sense to move Joe Mauer up one slot in the lineup. His ability to make contact, drive the ball to the gaps and get on base in nearly 40% of his plate appearances would provide the meat of the order ample opportunity to drive in runs  in Hudson’s hopefully temporary absence.

This isn’t new territory for the well-paid catcher either. In late May 2009, the Twins faced similar circumstances which forced Gardenhire to move Mauer into the two-spot. From May 21st until June 20th, Mauer batted second and hit a robust .415 as the team averaged 5 runs per game in that duration. It was this surge of production that kept the Twins from having the American League’s worst productivity from the two-spot last year.

Gardenhire’s hesitation to move Mauer forward isn’t without its merits. The first of which is that the top of the order becomes left-handed heavily with Span, Mauer and Morneau in the first through third positions in the order. This however is easily dismissed when you consider the splits the trio has when facing left-handed pitching. The second, and perhaps more relevant issue to the manager, is that it leaves the bottom of the order clogged with a variation of Tolbert, Punto, Harris, Valencia or Plouffe in the final three spots. When presented with the same situation last year when Alexi Casilla was struggling, the Twins manager said:

“[Y]ou can stick everyone who's swinging bad at the bottom, but that doesn't stretch out your lineup.”

Clearly this opinion is shared by several other managers in the league who wish to avoid bogging down the lineup at the backend with too many out-makers. According to McTaggert’s article, Astros manager Brad Mills expressed concerns over thinning his lineup as well:

"It would be great to have a No. 2 hitter to be able to drive the ball, but you don't want to sacrifice the rest of your lineup. You want to be able to spread those hitters out to give yourself a chance to drive in some runs."

Yet the problem with that line of thinking is that, in the end, you are giving more at bats to an inferior hitter as the two-hitter will receive more plate appearances per game than the eight or nine hitters. So with the probability of Hudsonreturning to the Twins as early as Tuesday to face the Rockies, adjusting the lineup to include Mauer batting second is a temporary - but necessary - solution to a short-term problem.

Running rampant on Joe? Um, no.

An interesting debate has been generated thanks to the abundant amount of bases swindled from the Twins during their recent west coast road trip. In their visit to Safeco Field, the Seattle Mariners ran rampant on the battery, taking 8 bases in as many attempts, essentially stealing all of their runs in the four-game series.

The aftermath chatter focused on Joe Mauer and the possibility that his arm is not quite what it once was. This is quite the swing in the general perception of his stolen base thwarting abilities. According to the Fan’s Scouting Report, Mauer had some of the best attributes of a catcher the two previous seasons. In 2008, he ranked second in release/footwork and accuracy and third in strength. This past season, Mauer was second in release/footwork as well as strength but was third in accuracy. How can it be that someone who had been deemed the second best defensive catcher in baseball suddenly earns a reputation of being easier to steal from than your average baby?

Not surprising, the pitcher on the mound for over half of the stolen bases was Carl Pavano, whose 30 stolen bases allowed in 2009 led the American League. John Bonnes detailed the totals this year noting that of the 17 attempts on Pavano all but two took the base. His 15 stolen bases allowed are currently the third most behind Fausto Carmona of the Indians and Gil Meche of the Royals. As solid of a pitcher that he has been for the Twins, his Achilles’ heel is obviously holding runners. So while Mauer’s caught stealing rate resides at 28% this season, well-below his 37% career mark, this particular member of the pitching staff is doing him little favors.

Part of the reason for this trend is in Pavano's prolonged delivery from the stretch position. With runners on first, Pavano usually opts to use a full leg kick as shown below:

 

In this image against the Texas Rangers, Pavano had Josh Hamilton on first, who is not necessarily a known base stealer. Still, from the point of his rather deliberate leg-lift to the release of the ball, Pavano uses 29 frames. What really gives the runner a potentially solid jump is that once Pavano’s leg reaches the apex of his delivery, instead of shifting his weight forward he brings the leg down before striding towards home.  This is an added split-second for a better jump.

Compare that to Nick Blackburn who basically lifts his foot and steps forward in a quasi-slide step, eliminating time from first movement to pitch release. As such, from leg-lift to the release of the ball, Blackburn uses 25 frames:

Likewise, Scott Baker also implements a shortened delivery with runners on first. Similar to Blackburn, Baker simply strides forward once he lifts his front leg. From start to finish, Baker takes 26 frames to deliver the ball towards home.

Another factor that makes Pavano such an easy target is that his pitch selection with a runner on first is very fastball-deficient compared to the likes of Blackburn and Baker. Because of both a decrease in velocity and the abundance of tougher pitches to catch-and-throw (sliders, splitters), Pavano makes an ideal target to run on:

2008 w/ runner on 1st:	Fastball%	Non-Fastball%	Avg. Velocity
Pavano	58.3	41.7	86.2
Blackburn	75.0	25.0	87.4
Baker	71.8	28.2	87.5

(via Inside Edge)

Even though Pavano can turn a walk into a double, he’s still demonstrated that he has had better results with his methods versus Blackburn and Baker’s truncated deliveries. With a runner on first with a stolen base opportunity last year, Pavano’s OPS against was .830 while Blackburn was at .930 and Baker at .937.  For Pavano, the ends somewhat justify his means.

So, while we’re quick to blame the catcher for the stolen bases, a vast majority of the burden resides on the other side of the plate. In the end, the decrease in the percentage of runners caught by Joe Mauer is greatly influenced by Pavano’s indifference towards would-be stealers and his presence in the rotation.