Time to shave the beard?

As the rest of the Twins lineup is busy producing runs like a taco stand serving tainted meat, Jason Kubel has been inauspiciously quiet. Since the home opener the left-handed slugger has had fewer hits than Chumbawamba, going just 3-for-29 (.103) with nine strikeouts.

On Wednesday, I showed that part of the reason for his slump is because pitchers have noted his insatiable appetite for meaty fastballs and have switched his diet to low-fat and tasteless sliders and curves. The results are fewer pitches in the strike zone and ultimately fewer pitches he can feast upon. Kubel has displayed restraint in most cases – drawing more walks and chases after out-of-zone pitches less – by largely ignoring the servings of non-fastballs and off-the-plate appetizers. 

Yet in order to stop his batting average from slinking towards a number typically reserved for describing a Brewers fan’s blood alcohol content, Kubel also needs to stop hitting them directly at people. There are signs that the defense's good fortunes might not last much longer. For one thing, is batting average on balls in play (or BABIP for shorthand) is absurdly low. As a rule of thumb, if this number is well-below or towers above the league average, there is a strong indication that a player is primed for improvement or regression. In Kubel’s case, the lefty is sporting a BABIP (.226) as ugly as his beard – and far below the league average (.291) in addition to his own career mark (.303). 

Meanwhile, considering the method in which he is putting the balls into play, we can easily deduce that he is hitting the ball square. In Kubel’s 56 plate appearances before Thursday’s game, he has hit 27% of his balls in play as line drives. This is an extremely positive total. In general, line drives fall in for hits far more often than grounders or fly balls. Last season, liners became hits 72% of the time while grounders did so 24% of the time and fly balls just 13.4% (with the exception of home runs which are not considered “in play”). The natural conclusion is that if his line drive totals are up, the batting average will eventually correct itself as line drives find vacant real estate. 

But not only is he hitting line drives regularly, he’s hitting everything solid. Behind Inside Edge’s pay wall is a fairly underutilized statistic that may assist in bridging the gap from the “assumed” (i.e. high line drive rate coupled with low BABIP equals bad luck) to the “actual” (i.e. genuinely screaming balls around the field off his bat). Like Baseball Info Solutions, who gathers all of the batted ball data that we find at Fangraphs.com, Inside Edge has added a little extra flavor by denoting if the ball – be it grounder, liner or fly ball - was well-hit. The Well-Hit Average (well-hit balls/at bats) provides us with another metric to gauge the type of contact, regardless if it was hit land, air or sea. While the rest of the league holds a .208 well-hit average, Kubel has exercised a very good .239 well-hit average. 

If he continues to spray shots around the ballyard at the same rate, there is no reason not to expect a full turnaround long before summer begins. 

However, if this decline continues on the road trip, the next step is to shave the beard. 

Give the man a fastball

Jason Kubel has entered some early season doldrums. In the past four games, Kubel is just 1-for-16 with four strikeouts. His overall totals are even less affirming. In the first 14 games, Kubel has buoyed a sad-looking .205/.327/.364 batting line with two home runs in 52 plate appearances. While he’s showing more patience, walking 8 times (15.4% BB%), he’s also striking out more (25% K%) and has lost some overall pop (.159 isolated power down from .239 in ’09). Admittedly, Kubel’s line drive rate is very attractive (27.3% LD%) but this downturn is quite the contrast from a year ago in which the lefty marched through opponents’ pitching staffs on a mission.

 

Opposing teams made a shrewd observation based on his performance last year: Kubel was absolutely shredding fastballs. Ostensibly, pitchers respected Kubel’s ownership of the fastball and curbed their deployment of fastballs accordingly in ’09, throwing them just 53.3% of the time. Nevertheless, he turned pitcher’s high cheddar into minced meat, slugging .667 on fastballs resulting in a 27.2 run above average (11th-best in baseball). The harder you threw it, the harder he hit it.

 

The general strategy for defusing Kubel this year has been “If he’s going to feast on the heat, let’s feed him less of it.” Now, Kubel receives a fastball about as often as Halley’s Comet visits this rock. So far in 2010, Kubel has seen the lowest mix of fastballs in baseball:

 

Kubel and the Heat:	2009	2010
Fastball%	53.3	41.8
Slugging% on FB	.667	.350
wFB	27.2	-1.3

 

Being the recipient of a high dosage of breaking pitches has in turned increased the number of balls out of the zone. Whereas in 2009, pitchers went into the zone 47.1% of the time, he’s getting just 43% of pitches faced in the strike zone (well below the 48.6% league average). This has naturally led to fewer balls that he can drive thus the decline in his isolated power.

 

Because of this, Kubel will have to make some adjustments to his approach. There are already signs that he is doing just that. Seeing that his walk rate is up and that he is chasing fewer pitches out of the zone (20% chase%) demonstrates that he is capable of being selective and waiting for his pitch (i.e. the occasional fastball). If he continues to put the ball in play on a line like he has been doing, there is no doubt that his average will rebound as some of those batted balls begin to fall in for hits.

Off-Day Happenings.

Monday's scheduled off-day will give Twins fans a night free of baseball to enjoy the unusually warm spring evening in Minnesota. However, if you are an agoraphobic, 1500ESPN's Phil Mackey has you covered. He's organized a live chat on-line to discuss the state-of-the-Twins for tonight at 8 PM. Joining Mackey will be Aaron Gleeman, John Bonnes, Seth Stohs and myself, screeding away thoughts and opinions on the team's 9-4 start. That's right: Four iconic Twins writers and me, the Ringo Starr/Oates/Garfunkel of the blogging community. 

Other matters:

• The Twins' new stadium is keeping MLB's attendance numbers from going kerplunk. The turnout thus far has been wonderful yet it appears that the interest in the mid-week games against Cleveland are not drawing nearly the same attention that the Boston series did.
• Justin Morneau's 13 walks is tied for the most in the American League. Part of the reason is that pitcher's are refusing to throw Morneau strikes, hitting the zone just 41% of the time (below the 48% average) and Morneau, in turn, is not chasing those pitches as much as he had in the past (following just 25% of pitches out-of-zone). Speaking of walks, the Twins are currently tied with the Braves for the most in baseball (65). 
• The Twins offense has had 36 of their plate appearances run to 3-0 counts. That's seven more than the next closest, the Detroit Tigers. 
• Ron Gardenhire is certainly picking the right moments to use Jim Thome's bat off the bench as Thome's pinch hitter leverage is at 2.59 - the 7th-highest in baseball. Unfortunately the big man is just 1-for-5 in his opportunities.
• Target Field is playing well for Orlando Hudson. After a slow start on the road since the inaugural game in the new outdoor stadium, Hudson is 7-for-22 (.318) with three extra base hits, six walks and six runs scored. 
• According to BillJamesOnline.net, the Twins are second in the American League in net bases gained with +11, trailing the go-go Oakland A's who are +24 bases and leading all of baseball. 
• John Dewan's Plus/Minus defensive system currently pegs Nick Punto (+4) tied with Jose Lopez, Miguel Tejada and Ian Stewart as the top third baseman in baseball. Despite what Dick N Bert like to relay during the telecasts, Denard Span ranks 30th among center fielders with a -1 rating, losing most of his marks in fielding deep fly balls. 
• Baseball America's JJ Cooper reviews prospect Kyle Gibson's first two professional starts. After a five-run, six-hit debut that included a pair of home runs, Miricles pitching coach Steven Mintz said that Gibson's outing was a little misleading given the stiff wind that day. His second outing demostrated Gibson's talent better, as the 2009 first round draft pick implemented a solid changeup to keep hitters off-balance. 

Control of fastball key to Liriano's success

That’s more like it.

For most of the winter and spring, we have been teased by this promise of Francisco Liriano 2.0. While in winter ball in the Dominican, he was blowing hitters away and commanding the strike zone with authority. He continued this output in the spring, working 20 almost flawless innings in the Grapefruit League yielding just five walks. Like the Twins’ version of Guns N Roses, it began to feel like Liriano’s anticipated 2010 season was the equivalent of the band’s much hyped album Chinese Democracy. We’ve been waiting patiently for this release and have been feed information that only led us to believe it was going to be EPIC.

And then Liriano made his 2010 debut against the White Sox and it started to feel exactly like Chinese Democracy: propagated and overhyped crap.

Similar to 2009, Liriano struggled to place his fastball within the strike zone despite having velocity closer to his 2006 levels. He especially avoided the right-handed contingent of the White Sox lineup with his heater. This was no small surprise as last year righties feasted upon Liriano’s smoke, hitting .365/.468/.698 (AVG/OBP/SLG) while the rest of America’s pitchers had their fastballs hit at a significantly lower .298/.371/.469 clip. Evidently, in his first start of the year, this was probably at the forefront of his mind as he navigated his way through his first major league lineup since 2009. As such, he kept his fastball off the plate and wound up walking five righties (four of the five on fastballs). Without any control over his fastball to set up his inhumane slider, Liriano appeared ready to dither away in yet another season mired in high walk rates.

Pundits and coaches spoke of Liriano’s need to trust his stuff and the Twins potential ace did just that at Target Field. In his second start of the season against a formidable Boston lineup, Liriano proved that he could intertwine both his recharged velocity and placement in the strike zone, validating the offseason reports we heard so much about. He consumed the strike zone with his fastball, throwing it for a strike 66% of the time to righties, much better than his 56% rate against the White Sox righties.

As the game progressed, so too did his confidence in his fastball. In fact, after favoring his off-speed offerings in Chicago, Liriano stuck with the hard stuff on Thursday to right-handed batters:

Liriano’s Pitch Selection vs RHB:	At White Sox (4/9/10)	Vs Red Sox (4/15/10)
Fastball	44%	59%
Slider	28%	25%
Changeup	27%	16%

(via Inside Edge)
With a core that included heavy-hitting right-handed bats in Victor Martinez, Kevin Youkilis and Adrian Beltre, Liriano would have had ample reason to shy away from his fastball. Instead, it was his fastball that would be the executioner of the trio in their second and third time through the order. In the third inning, Liriano coaxed fly outs off the bats of Martinez and Youkilis then retired Beltre on a grounder to open the fourth, preserving the Twins one-run lead. Several innings later and a four-run buffer at his disposal, Liriano struck out Martinez on the heat then proceeded to get Youkilis to bounce into a fielder’s choice and extracted a grounder out of Beltre - both on fastballs.

Using a rejuvenated fastball effectively against one of baseball’s offensive juggernauts, particularly to their right-handed swingers, Liriano demonstrated just how potent his pitching can be.

Bullpen elevates Twins

The Twins bullpen – figured to be the most questionable area of the team coming into the season - has helped elevate the club to a 6-2 record. Through the first eight ballgames, the late inning clean-up crew has exercised a 1.66 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP, best in the American League. What has been the early season formula for success?

(1) No walks.

They have dominated opponents by dominating the strike zone. The relief staff has walked just one (Jose Mijares) in 21.2 innings of work, which keeps opponents from adding base-runners during pivotal portions of the game. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Washington Nationals relievers have issued 20 walks in 28.2 innings leading to a 5.02 group ERA. Because of the miniscule 0.42 BB/9 the Twins relievers hold an unearthly 14.00 K/BB ratio in spite of averaging just 5.8 K/9. To put that into context, the next closest team is the Atlanta Braves who hold a 4.29 K/BB ratio thanks to a 10.38 K/9.

(2) First-pitch strikes.

This goes hand-in-hand with the no walks. In 63.0% of plate appearances, the relievers have achieved strike one, well-above the 58% baseball average. Only Toronto’s 73.8% first pitch strike percentage is better in the American League. Getting strike one ensures that the Twins pitchers position themselves well. Everybody other than Brian Duensing (46.2%) and Alex Burnett (33.3%) hold percentages over 50%. Jose Mijares leads the staff with an 81.8% rate while Jon Rauch (68.4%), Matt Guerrier (64.7%) and Jesse Crain (63.6%) are not far behind.

(3) Getting hitters to chase their pitches.

The byproduct of throwing first-pitch strikes and working ahead is being able to move the ball of the plate. While pitchers typically throw a fastball 62% of the time, the Twins relief staff has had the luxury of using their breaking stuff, mostly sliders (30%), far more frequently because of their ability to get ahead. Since the Twins are throwing pitches in the zone at a high rate, they have also enticed plenty of swings are pitches that dart out of the strike zone. At 35.7% out-of-zone swings, the relief staff is coaxing hitters to go after their pitches. While opponents have put a fair amount of those out-of-zone pitches in play, they have failed to make solid contact – hitting line drives just 12% of the time (2nd only to the Diamondbacks).

(4) Stranding runners.

The relievers have stranded 93% of all runner put on base, head-and-shoulders above all the other clubs (the next closest is the Mets at 84%) and well-above the 71.7% average. Their current rate is bound to revert closer to the average, but for now it is working.