OtB Opening Day Notes

Denard Span had a rough first night, going 0-for-5 with three strikeouts. After taking 8 pitches in a decent plate appearance to start the game, Span struck out looking, then swinging in the 3rd and again in the 7th. It was his first game with three or more strikeouts since his 0-for-4 four strikeout night against Detroit on September 20th, 2009. 

Likewise, Scott Baker's night began shaky - perhaps because of nerves or excitement. His first inning was littered with erratic offerings, missing wildly with his fastball and curve. I tweeted during the game that his release point was wandering that inning. As a result, his slider and other off-speed offerings stayed up in the zone. 

Here is a pitch type map of last night (note the orange square for slider):

Here is a pitch type map for an October 1st, 2009 start (note the orange square for slider):

Obviously, Baker works up in the zone regularly with his fastball but his slider is typically down in the zone when he is on (as you can see above in his 10/1/09 outing against Detroit). Last night, Angels hitters were able to sit on fastball. In fact, his confidence in his other pitches waned so much that at one point in the 5th inning, Baker threw 10-straight fastballs, mixed in a change-up before throwing two more fastballs to Hideki Matsui that resulted in an RBI single.

Mauer struck out looking in the 3rd inning. In 2009, Mauer struck out looking 11 times. 

Delmon Young's first home run of the season - as Darren Wolfson noted last night - was equal to his April and May production combined last year. What stood out to me, even before he took that swing, was Young was using the same mechanics from his second-half of the 2009 season. As I documented in December, Young's new muted leg kick was helping him elevate the ball more leading to more home runs. Unfortunately, within the same game, we also witnessed why Young will continue to be frustrating. After Angels reliever Fernando Rodney opened the 8th inning with four-consecutive balls to Michael Cuddyer then proceeded to fall behind Jason Kubel, Young hacked at the first pitch that was out of the zone, rolling it over for an inning-ending double play.

Speaking of Rodney, the Angels signed him to a two-year, $11 million contract this offseason, to see his fastball reach 90.3-mph last night. This is a 5-mph decrease from last October when he was chucking his heat at 95.4-mph. 

Would the committee approach be more effective?

 

On Friday, Ron Gardenhire officially disbanded the closer-by-committee. KARE 11’s Dave Schwatz relayed the decision on Twitter, noting that the manager had anointed Jon Rauch his closer to at least begin the 2010 season. Rauch’s resume, which has closer experience listed, gave him the edge over the other internal applicants. At the same time, Rauch’s work history is not without its warts.

On Saturday, Darren Wolfson inquired with baseball analytical guru Jonah Keri what his preference would be: Committee or moving forward with Rauch?  Keri told Wolfson that he favored the committee in theory but went on to say that “the challenge of that approach is that requires all pitchers to be ready to go at any time, as opposed to now where everyone can have a set routine, not only for the closer but also the designated 7th and 8th inning guys.”

The decision to entrust one pitcher versus the committee approach gives the Twins a stabilized bullpen routine and limits the need for management at the end of the game but at the same time, using just one might not be the most optimal use of the resources, particularly if none of them are of Nathan’s caliber. Unlike Nathan, all of the other four candidates listed (Rauch, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares and Jesse Crain) have various flaws in their game in different situations. For example, Guerrier has been crushed by the heart of the order whereas Rauch has been very effective in retiring the three-four-five hitters the past two seasons. Meanwhile, when runners are on base, Rauch has been smacked around at a higher clip while Mijares and Guerrier have been able to work out of those types of jams with relative ease.

The follow is a cheat sheet of six scenarios that Ron Gardenhire can print out and post in the dugout based on the past two seasons worth of data to traverse the 8^th or 9^th inning in 2010 that will ensure the most favorable matchups:

What if the heart of the order – the opposing team’s three, four and five hitters – were due up?

	Batters Faced	OPS against
Guerrier, Matt	217	.831
Mijares, Jose	96	.673
Rauch, Jon	199	.695
Crain, Jesse	160	.823

When facing theoretically the three best hitters in an opponent’s lineup, Matt Guerrier has been the one subjected to the most punishment. In addition to holding the highest OPS among the four the past two years, he’s also allowed 13 home runs, 11 doubles and a triple. Mijares on the other hand, has had the least amount of battle damage, yet his 96 matchups are by far the fewest bringing sample size into question. Still, he’s struck out the highest percentage (24%) but five if his 19 hits allowed were of the very long ball variety. At the same time, Rauch has almost duplicated Mijares’s OPS in twice the matchups while allowing just three home runs leading to the lowest slugging percentage against (.376).

Use: Jon Rauch. In the past two seasons, Rauch has been one of the best when facing the opposing team’s best hitters. He may not have the strikeout capability that Nathan or Mijares have but he’s very effective at getting outs.

A left-handed heavy portion of the lineup is due up in the ninth, who do you call on?

	Batters Faced	Out%	OPS against
Guerrier, Matt	250	69.2	.655
Mijares, Jose	130	77.7	.460
Rauch, Jon	293	67.8	.731
Crain, Jesse	187	69.6	.834

Naturally, Mijares is the guy if you have not already spent him in the 7^th or 8^th inning. Portside opponents have hit just .153 off of him while touching him for just four extra base hits since 2008. Perhaps a little surprising, the next best alternative is Matt Guerrier. Guerrier allows a high amount of contact but it mostly results in harmless groundballs (54.7%) off of the bat. Rauch, meanwhile, gives up far too many fly balls leading to a .409 slugging percentage against as they drift into the bleachers.

Use: Jose Mijares/Matt Guerrier. Mijares might be another interesting closer option later in the year if the Twins are willing to give Ron Mahay some LOOGY responsibilities freeing Mijares up for save situations. Guerrier incites plenty of groundballs off of left-handed bats – a perfect use for the new and improved middle infield as well as giving Mijares a night off.

A righty-heavy portion of the lineup is due up in the ninth, who do you call on?

	Batters Faced	Out%	OPS against
Guerrier, Matt	404	69.5	.725
Mijares, Jose	160	67.7	.734
Rauch, Jon	308	75.0	.732
Crain, Jesse	160	69.6	.677

At first blush, Rauch appears ideal – he’s retired 75% of right-handed opponents faced since ’08 – however, righties have shown that they can tag him pretty hard too. In that time, they have hit nine home runs and another 15 for extra bases. With a one or two-run lead, that could become a problem. Guerrier’s another choice but, once again, susceptible to the occasional home run.

Use: Surprisingly, Crain is the best use of resources – assuming the righties are not in the heart-of-the-order (which is Rauch territory), consider deploying Crain. In addition to the miserly home run allowed totals, performing well against same-sided opponents is about the one thing Crain had working for him.

Who is going to navigate out of trouble once runners are on base?

	Batters Faced	OPS against
Guerrier, Matt	300	.672
Mijares, Jose	141	.538
Rauch, Jon	265	.773
Crain, Jesse	257	.722

Mijares is the best option if runners end up on base. He’s allowed just three home runs with a total of six extra base hits resulting in a slugging percentage of .279. This is nearly .100 points lower than Crain and Guerrier who both turned in a .371 slugging percentage allowed. Furthermore, Guerrier is a front-runner for Mr. Idaho because he was chock full o’ taters. With runners on base, he’s allowed 10 home runs since ‘08. Likewise, Rauch, who was tightfisted with the dingers when facing the heart of the order, allowed seven home runs in a total of 21 extra base hits for a .445 slugging percentage allowed.  Still, if you are looking to get a groundball for that all-important double play, Guerrier leads the pack with a 43.7% groundball rate.

Use: If you find yourself in a predicament with either Rauch or Crain on the mound, quickly break glass and bring in Jose Mijares. Short of that, Matt Guerrier’s the next in line.

Runner on third, less than two outs. Who will keep the hitter from lofting that sacrifice fly and keep the tying/go-ahead run stranded?

	Batters Faced	GB%	OPS against
Guerrier, Matt	36	66.7	.694
Mijares, Jose	17	0.0	.891
Rauch, Jon	34	22.2	1.084
Crain, Jesse	28	19.0	1.029

Clearly within this small sample Guerrier is the superior pitcher. His ability to keep opponents from getting any elevation has led to a good 76.7% left-on-base rate since 2008. Mijares’s is just the opposite of Guerrier – no, that zero is not a typo – he’s not induced any groundball contact. Similar to his experience with runners on base above, Rauch has struggled in this scenario. Not only does he hold a .360 average (9-for-25), 13 of the 27 balls in play were considered “well hit”. Crain too was another victim of abuse, carrying a 71.2% left-on-base rate the past two seasons, because of a .450 average (9-for-20) with a runner on third.

Use: Matt Guerrier. His ability to keep the ball on the ground and retire hitters works well in this circumstance.

Alex Rodriguez is up representing the tying run. Who do you call in?

	Matchups	Results	Outcome
Guerrier, Matt	3	2-for-2	HR, 2B, BB
Mijares, Jose	0	-	-
Rauch, Jon	2	1-for-1	1B, BB
Crain, Jesse	4	0-for-3	BB

In the most miniscule of sample sizes, Crain holds an advantage by not allowing a hit at all in the past two seasons.  Over his career, Crain has tangled with the Yankee superstar 13 times and allowed just one hit (a single). You almost have to keep calling his number until Rodriguez proves he can get to him too.

Use: Jesse Crain. Then pray to the gods of small sample size this works.

Notebook Dump (04.01.10)

  (from myfoxtwincities.com)

The Quote: “"It seemed like everything was in slow motion. When I saw her go down, I couldn't do anything but run after her and make sure she was OK." – Center fielder Denard Span after lacing a foul ball off his Mother’s chest.

• Scott Baker had his first rough inning of the spring – allowing eight runs in 2.2 innings to a very formidable Rays lineup. Even with the blemish, his spring season was much better than a year ago. In 2009, Baker struggled through shoulder tightness and allowed six home runs in 23.2 innings with a 16/3 K/BB ratio before being placed on the 15-day DL.  This year, Baker worked 22 innings and turned in a 22/3 K/BB ratio while giving up just one home run. Baker is the de facto ace of the staff and will be the opening day starter in Los Angeles next Monday.
• In the split-squad game at Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, Brian Duesning got another crack at the World Champs lineup with a presumed full night of sleep. This time, the Twins lefty shut down the Yankees, holding them to one run in five innings while limiting New York to just four hits. The Twins are keeping Duensing in flux, using him as both a starter and a reliever. He’s shown that he’s a proficient starter but a mediocre reliever in his short time at the major league level. In the minors, only five of his 106 appearances were in relief. Keeping him as a starter in Rochester would ensure that the Twins have a very good backup in the event of injury and a potential trading chip.
• TwinsCentric’s number two prospect, Wilson Ramos, was sent down to AAA in favor of defensive-heavy caddy Drew Butera. MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo speculates that the Twins decision was influence on the ability to showcase Ramos’s talent at AAA, even citing the need for Nathan’s replacement. While on the surface trading a prospect for a proven closer seems to be a working formula, in most cases, “proven closers” is a commodity that is artificially inflated. Pitchers can be groomed to be closer – like people who live in Phoenix – they usually did something else before landing there. Last year, the Mariners acquired David Aardsma from the Red Sox for a low-level minor leaguer in Fabin Williamson. Aardsma had a power arm and erratic control but saved 38 games for the Mariners at a very low cost.
• On his blog, La Velle E Neal showed that Scott Baker was second to Justin Verlander in foul strikes, then speculated it was because he throws up in the zone so much. Had Mr. Neal visited Over The Baggy back in February, he would have learned not only that, but that Baker was also baseball’s leader in percentage of foul strikes (35%) and that with two-strikes, Baker favors his fastball up in the zone for the killshot.
• Dave Cameron at Fangraphs.com labeled the Minnesota Twins as the 5^th best organization in baseball.   
• TwinsGeek.com John Bonnes has some information on how to purchase a Target Field collectible item while donating to the Make-A-Wish Foundation. Please show your support if possible!
• At MLBTradeRumors.com, Tim Dierkes notes that the Twins were 22nd overall in free agent spending this offseason with $14.4 million committed to Jim Thome, Orlando Hudson and Clay Condrey. This sends the message that even though they raised payroll by $30 million for 2010, a higher portion of that is allocated to internally developed players. I suspect after my conversations with Assistant GM Rob Antony that the organization’s philosophy will never shift towards free agent acquisitions – but will pick off those that fall within the one-year range.

Francisco Liriano's ground outs

While lust over the crazy-good 30/5 K/BB ratio in his 20 Grapefruit League innings isn't without its consideration, another positive indication that Francisco Liriano may be closer to his 2006 self versus the 2009 version is in the way balls are going off opponents' bats this spring: On the ground. 

Lacking a full breakdown of his batted ball numbers while in Ft Myers, we can still see through his Ground Out/Air Out numbers that Liriano's groundball production is mirrors his '06 numbers:  

	GO/AO
2006	2.19
2009	1.02
Spring Training 2010	2.33

(via MLB.com)

Yes, the sample size of 84 hitters is far too small to put any real weight into it, but this is reassuring nonetheless. Last season, Liriano allowed 21 home runs courtesy of a career-high 41.2% fly ball rate. This was quite the contrast from his '06 season in which just 28.3% of balls in play were elevated and he surrendered 9 home runs: 

GB/FB splits	GB%	FB%
2006	55.3	28.3
2009	40.2	41.2

(via Fangraphs.com)

In 2009, throwing more fastballs because he often found himself behind in hitters more frequently, Liriano left far too many pitches middle-up in the zone and opponents (particularly right-handed ones) redirected them into the bleachers. The assumption, gauging both from his increased strikeout rate and groundout rate over the winter and spring, is that Liriano is once again peppering the lower part of the zone which is inciting more bouncers and dribblers instead of long flies. If Liriano can continue this output during the regular season - adding the groundouts to reinforce his strikeouts - the lefty stands a good chance of contributing at the high level once again.

Around the Central (03.29.10)

 

News and notes from the Twins interdivision rivals:

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox appear poised to enter the season with a 12-man pitching staff, the final spot belonging to former Twins farmhand shortstop, Sergio Santos.

ANALYSIS: Santos, converted to a reliever in ’09, has a fastball that hums in at 96-98 MPH. In his 24 minor league innings last season, he proved that pitching takes more than velocity – you also need command. His 16 walks are of concern. Still, the Sox appear to love the radar gun readings along with his improved 11/5 K/BB ratio in 6.2 spring innings.

Phil Rogers thinks that catching prospect Tyler Flowers’s unimpressive spring training may have paved the way for an AJ Pierszynski contract extension.

ANALYSIS: Flowers, 24, was acquired from Atlanta in the Javier Vazquez trade in the 2008 offseason and was considered the team’s catcher of the future. Baseball America ranked him 99th on the Top 100 list thanks to his career .293/.406/.495 batting line. He’s demonstrated a good deal of power and patience at the plate but has only accumulated 119 plate appearances over AA ball. Also, after allowing 112 stolen bases in ’08 (catching 28%), it was clear that he was going to need some work as a receiver.  Reports are that he’s improved defensively but his 2-for-18 spring leaves some uneasy about handing the reigns over to him in 2011. Say what you will about AJ, he’s been a catcher you can count out. His defensive skills are eroding and he’s never been one to post outstanding on-base percentages, yet he’s been around a 2+ WAR catcher for the Sox while slugging .420 in the past five seasons. At the same time, Pierzynski will be 34 years old after 2010 and looking for a raise over his $6.25 million annual salary. For an organization that is tethered to the hefty contracts of Jake Peavy and Alex Rios while rumored to be interested in acquiring first baseman Adrian Gonzalez from San Diego, they should be considering swapping to the cheaper alternative.

Ozzie Guillen was demonstrating some of his built-for-speed-not-for-comfort moves this past week, implementing a hit-and-run with backup catcher Ramon Castro on first and later had Gordon Beckham execute a suicide squeeze during Wednesday’s spring training game.

ANALYSIS: Putting the hit-and-run on with Castro, a player who was -11 bases as a runner in ’09, is probably ill-advised. Wasting a Beckham at-bat on a suicide squeeze is probably ill-advised. Naturally, it is only spring training and he could be testing the new car out to see how she handles. Guillen finally had some of his lumbering lugs from past teams off out of his lineups (Thome, Dye, etc) and has added speed but this small ball fetish might come at the expense of several runs over the course of the season. Even last year we saw a glimpse of what that would be like as the Sox steals of second base rocketed from 54 to 105 between ’08 and ’09. Of course this offseason Chicago lost Chris Getz and Scott Podsednik, two proficient base-stealers that were responsible for 55 of those swindles, so Ozzie is going to need to identify new motormen.

Cleveland Indians

Paul Hoynes reports that DH/1B Russell Branyan will start the season on the 15-game DL with his back injury.

ANALYSIS: Back injuries can be tricky and often times linger. Ask Joe Crede. Nevertheless, last season Branyan showed the baseball world that he could be a full-time player. It was always assumed that he was a left-handed platoon candidate but Seattle gave him the opportunity at 33 years old to prove he was capable of tagging southpaws. After getting only 328 plate appearances in ten years against the sinister, he received 185 with the Mariners and hit .222/.321/.481 with 10 home runs. Not bad. Trouble now is keeping him healthy long enough to prove that he can do it again.

The Indians fifth spot in the rotation comes down to Carlos Carrasco or David Huff reports MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince.

ANALYSIS: Okay, so “comes down to” isn’t entirely accurate. Carrasco pretty much imploded in his outing on Sunday, walking six and giving up five runs in 3.2 innings of work. Said manager Manny Acta after the outing: "How can we make a decision when we haven't even seen the other guy pitch? You guys will know the decision the second after Huff pitches." At times, the 23-year-old prospect acquired from Philadelphia in the Cliff Lee trade last year has shown flashes of his potential. After posting a 36/7 K/BB ratio in 42.1 innings in AAA Columbus, he’s got a 22/15 K/BB ratio in 19.1 spring innings. The left-handed Huff has had a tumultuous spring as well, allowing 22 hits in 16.2 innings with an 8/5 K/BB.

 

The enigmatic Fausto Carmona threw seven scoreless innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Saturday.

 

ANALYSIS: "Pretty impressive by Fausto," said manager Manny Acta. "Seven innings in 70 pitches. Pitch ahead in the count, pound the strike zone and amazing things will happen. It's not a secret." The same could be said about Carmona all spring. After walking 70 batters in 125 innings in ’09 leading to a 6.32 ERA, the righty has given up only one run in his 20 spring innings - more importantly - walking only two. He’s shown as recently as 2007 that his sinking fastball can front a rotation but he’s been spotty with his command ever since.

Detroit Tigers

MLB.com’s Jason Beck says Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski is getting numerous calls on the availability of some of his pitchers.

ANALYSIS:  Obviously, the three likeliest to be moved are Jeremy Bonderman, Dontrelle Willis or Nate Robertson who are all owed $10 million or more in 2010. Who is on the other end of the phone and interested in the damaged (and pricey) goods is a mystery. The Mets are always up for some bad decisions. With Cliff Lee and Erik Bedard injured, the Mariners might consider picking up someone like Robertson – his groundball tendencies would play well with Jack Wilson patrolling short. If any of the three are moved, it’ll basically be a payroll reduction for Detroit and a wing-and-a-pray for the new team.

Manager Jim Leyland has officially announced that Austin Jackson will be the starting center fielder and bat leadoff on Opening Day for the Tigers.

ANALYSIS:  Jackson made an all-out assault on spring training, going 19-for-56 with seven extra base hits. Unlike his minor league track record, Jackson has demonstrated patience at the plate and solid contact, walking seven times and striking out only eight. That’s not the Austin Jackson from the Yankees organization a year ago. In 2009, Jackson walked in just 7.2% of his plate appearances while striking out in 24.4%. Jackson attributes his improvement to a modification in his batting stride which is allowing him to pick up the ball better. If the Tigers want to place that at the top of the order all season long, more power to them, but you have to assume that Jackson’s major league numbers will wind up replicating his minor league ones rather than the spring training sample.       

The Detroit Free Press’s John Lowe notes that Jim Leyland is hinting that Joel Zumaya will be back in the bullpen to set up the newly acquired closer Jose Valverde.

ANALYSIS:  Zumaya hit 101 on the radar gun this spring. That’s a good sign for Detroit that he’s humping it up there following shoulder surgery last August. Still, he’s got an extensive medical history and has not made more than 30 relief appearances since 2006. If he can make it through the All Star break without hitting the DL, I’ll be shocked.

Kansas City Royals

Bob Dutton from the Kansas City Star says that Gil Meche had no shoulder stiffness after throwing in a simulated game on Sunday.

ANALYSIS:  A week ago, Meche was sidelined with stiffness after coming off a 2009 season in which “shoulder fatigue” shut him down last August. The Royals have definitely taken advantage of Meche’s rubber arm. After throwing consecutive 200-plus inning seasons in ’07 and ’08, manager Trey Hillman had him throw over 120-pitches in three games in ‘09. His 132-pitch June 16th complete game against the Arizona Diamondbacks seems to be the Typhoid Mary of his pitching injuries – his productions dropped off significantly before reporting the fatigue ten days later. When healthy, Meche gives the Royals two above average starting pitchers and an outside chance of competing in the AL Central. If he’s unable to perform in 2010, Kansas City fans will have a long summer of watching pitchers shuttle in from Omaha every other week (as if that is any different from every other year).

Newly acquired center fielder Rick Ankiel was scratched from Saturday’s game with an ankle injury.

ANALYSIS:  The team is uncertain of how long Ankiel’s injury could last and are preparing for using either Mitch Maier or Willie Bloomquist in center if Ankiel is unavailable by the start of the regular season. Neither is ideal but Maier held his own defensively in nearly 600 innings in center in ’09. What’s interesting is that Maier has shown an odd platoon disadvantage against right-handed pitching since being called up to KC. In his short career, the left-handed hitting Maier has a .755 OPS and struck out in 16% of his plate appearances against southpaws but holds an even low .610 OPS and a 21% strikeout rate against righties. Probably just a sample-size anomaly, but strange nonetheless.