Go-Go Going Down Looking

Through twenty-seven plate appearance in 2009, Carlos Gomez has written another chapter on offensive futility.  With a minimum of 20 plate appearances to qualify, the Twins’ center fielder has the seventh highest strikeout percentage (34.6%) among MLB outfielders and a punitive .115 batting average.  This was not the anticipated results for the center fielder who had worked diligently (maybe) with hitting coach Joe Vavra all spring to avoid the increasingly high total of Ks.  To his credit, Gomez is chasing fewer pitches out of the strike zone – he has chased 27% of pitches which is just slightly higher than the league average of 25%.  Even still, with two-strikes on him, Gomez has already mentally selected his seat on the bench.  In thirteen of those twenty-seven plate appearances, Gomez has had the count run to two-strikes and just once was he able to gain first base (through a walk).  On nine other occasions he struck out.  If Gomez is not chasing pitches as he has been in the past, why does he still maintain an inflated strikeout rate?   

 

There are several factors that have led to this, the first of which is pitch selection.   In efforts to revamp his patience, Gomez has taken a greater portion of pitches then he had last year.  In 2008, Gomez took 45% pitches and this year he has taken 54%.  Superficially this is a good sign but the problem is that Gomez is not taking the right pitches.  A year ago, of the 946 pitches that Gomez took, 302 were strikes (32%).  Fast forward to this year and so far Gomez has taken 50 pitches and of which 20 were in the strike zone (43%).  As such, his aggression when faced with two-strikes has subsided.  In six of his nine strikeouts in 2009, Gomez has gone down looking.   This is a huge difference from 2008 when just 30 of his 142 strikeouts were of the watching variety.    

 

	2008	2009
Pitches Taken	45%	54%
Pitches Taken for a Strike	32%	43%

 

When Gomez does swing, he makes contact only 64.5% of the time which is well-below the league average of 80% contact.  In addition to that, his ability to make contact on anything thrown outside of the zone is minimal.  As noted above, Gomez is chasing fewer pitches out of the zone (27%) however when he does swing, his contact likelihood is minuscule.  Just 30% of his swings on pitches outside the zone result in the ball being put into play.  This total is the smallest contact among outfielders other than the Indians’ Grady Sizemore, who has made contact on just 27.3% during swings on balls out of the zone.  It might not be a prime pitch selection to swing at but the bottom-line is that Gomez is simply failing to make contact, resulting in the inevitable strikeout.   

 

 

	2008	2009
Contact%	77.8%	64.5%
OOZ Contact%	59.3%	30.0%

 

Strikeouts aside, Gomez is enjoying far less success because of the ingrained doctrine to “take more pitches”.  In 2008, Gomez swung at the first pitch in 44% of his plate appearances.  In those 105 PA’s, Gomez produced a .426/.433/.554 batting line that resulted in 11 of his 48 extra base hits.  These were far better consequences than the league average split which was .336/.342/.554 on the first pitch.   If Gomez sunk to two strikes, his ability to hit vanished.  Under all conditions in which Gomez had two strikes on him, he wilted to a .132/.195/.375 hitter.  Even the proverbial league average hitter managed to hit a meager .196/.267/.292 with those circumstances.  In 2009, Gomez has swung at 30% of the first offerings in a plate appearance yet opposing pitchers have peppered the strike zone – throwing Gomez a strike 70% of the time.  Because of his More often than not, Gomez has allowed the count to wander into two strike territory that has given unfavorable results (0-for-12). 

 

Despite belief to the contrary, Gomez should be looking to pounce on a pitch early in the count, particularly the first one.   His two extra base hits have come when he was aggressive:  He hit his double on the first pitch from Carlos Silva and his triple on the third pitch from Erik Bedard.  Avoiding getting Gomez to two strikes will pay dividends for the Twins. 

The Notebook Dump (04.14.09)

Game: Twinks 6, Blue Jays 8

Box Score

Win Probability

Recap

Record: 3-5

 

 

 

The Quote: ""Some disappointing pitches.  Luis coming in, a first-pitch slider down the middle [to Rolen] -- that's not a good pitch. We can't continue to do that, and this ballclub knows it." - Ron Gardenhire
 

The Inning: When Ron Gardenhire walked out to the mound with Toronto's Vernon Wells on second and third baseman Scott Rolen strolling to the plate with two outs in the top of the seventh inning, the Twins manager had little options left in his bullpen. 

 

Starter Kevin Slowey burned through 88-pitches in 5 1/3 innings of work, being cuffed around for thirteen hits and two home runs.  Attentive to the fact that it was going to be an early exit once again for the strike-thrower, Gardenhire briefly had left-handed reliever Brian Duensing warming up in the bullpen during the fifth inning.  Slowey, for his part, was able to retire Wells and the hot-hitting Adam Lind (12-for-30 entering the game in 2009) to strand runners on first and second, maintaining the one-run lead.  Adding two more runs on, the Twins would enter the top of the sixth with a three-run lead.  The relentless Blue Jays would stab back with a two-run home run by Lyle Overbay and it was suddenly a close game once again.  One out later and a walk to rookie Travis Snider followed by a steal of second. 

 

Last year, the Twins starting rotation allowed just 20 stolen bases total in the 163 games.  So far in 2009, the starters have been subjected to six swindles of second (eight total against the entire staff).  In all of last year, Slowey witnessed four out of seven attempts successfully converted.  In just two starts, Slowey has now had three attempts and three runners gaining second.  Yes, the company line is that a stolen base is the responsibility of both the catcher and the pitcher but under these circumstances, teams are runner strictly on Jose Morales and his sub-par arm. 

 

With a runner now in scoring position and Slowey throwing batting practice, Gardenhire decided the situation was ripe for a move.   At the onset of the sixth, the camera displayed both Craig Breslow and Matt Guerrier warming up in the bullpen.  Because the Jays had a sequence of righties following the left-handed batting Snider who was currently on second base, Gardenhire went with Guerrier.  Early returns in 2009 have seen a much different Guerrier then the one from the second-half of last year (or the second-half of the season prior to that) In a small sample of 3 2/3 innings coming into Monday's game, Guerrier had struck out three and given up just one hit.  Seventy-three percent of his pitches were strikes and eighty-percent of balls in play were on the ground.  Guerrier would fall behind and walk Scutero but would get Aaron HIll to bounce into an inning-ending double play. 

After the Twins failed to add to their 6-5 lead, Guerrier returned to the mound in the seventh to face Alex Rios, who he struck out.  Wells would lace a line drive into center for his first hit of the ball game.  With the white-hot Lind approaching the plate with the tying run on first, Gardenhire summoned Breslow.  Breslow pitched last on Sunday in the chill of Chicago to unfavorable results.  Dewayne Wise sacrificed Alexei Ramirez to second then Breslow hit Chris Getz and was removed from the game.  Two batters, one out and four pitches.  While battling Lind, Wells would snipe second base from the Twins' battery (this Morales throw would bounce half-way between the mound and second base).  Breslow, with the tying run now ninety feet closer, would strikeout Lind. 

 

This is where Gardenhire's tough decision would appear.  Striding to the plate was right-handed Scott Rolen.  The man assuming the stopper role in the bullpen, Jesse Crain, would be unavailable after throwing 15 pitches on Sunday and Saturday.  For his career, Rolen should little platoon tendencies.  According to his splits, lefties pitched him more gingerly, walking him more frequently than right-handed pitchers.  In recent year, however, Rolen's ability to hit left-handed pitching with power had diminished.  In 2007, he slugged .311 against 191 southpaws.  In 2008, he slugged .390 from a pool of 119 left-handers.   Last season, the left-handed Breslow would face 101 right-handed batters and hold them to a .221 average with one extra base hit in 19.  Still, Breslow had never faced the veteran Rolen.  In fact, the Twins had only a select few that had faced off against Rolen.  Rolen was 2-for-3 against Crain with two doubles, 0-for-3 against Joe Nathan and 0-for-2 against Guerrier.  Crain and Guerrier would be unavailable and Nathan is rarely woken up until the ninth inning.  Therefore the only option left to use would be Luis Ayala.

 

Ayala is having a fairly expected 2009.  He throws to contact and, as a result, contact is usually made.  Up until Monday night, most of it has been without its damages.  In his four innings so far, Ayala has allowed six hits while giving up two earned runs.  Most recently working in Chicago on Saturday and retired Carlos Quentin then struck out Wise and Paul Konerko.  It seems that it is performances like the one in Chicago that Gardenhire relishes and recalls when determining which reliever to use.  Yes, Rolen is 1-for-3 lifetime against Alaya with a game-winning home run in his career but Ayala shut down the Sox under meaningless conditions.  Ayala it would be.  

 

Ayala would unleash an 85-mph slider left up in the zone and out over the plate that Rolen would immediately lash back up the middle to score Wells from second.  With most of his bullpen used up or in remission, Gardenhire would allow Ayala to continue into the eighth inning, now working with a tie game.  Catcher Rod Barajas would hit a 2-2 fastball for a double and Snider would get an 2-0 changeup that was thigh-high middle-in and uncork on it for his second shot over the baggy on the night and vault the Blue Jays to a 8-6 victory. 

Twins Notes (04.13.09)

Joe Crede received a lot of attention in US Cellular in his return to Chicago.  After helping the White Sox win the 2005 World Series, the Sox decided to allow Crede to leave through free agency only to watch the third baseman who led them to a championship four years prior sign with their biggest rivals.  In his first plate appearance back at the Cell in a Twins uniform, Crede found himself serenaded by Air Supply's "All Out of Love".  Maybe the cheesy 70's rock inspired the former Sox who deposited a 2-0 pitch from Jose Contreras into the left field bleachers for his 70th home run at the ballpark.  "A lot of fans over there above the dugout were saying, 'That's the last time you're going to get cheered here — just wait 'til you start hitting,'" Crede said. "And it came true."  Coming into Friday's game, Crede was 3-for-16 (with a questionable hit included in that total) and since then he is 0-for-8 with two strikeouts. 

 

Sox manager Ozzie Guillen had interesting comments towards the Twins' new found third baseman.  According to the Chicago Sun-Times, Guillen said that Crede was "cheap".  The Sox apparently have a ritual that states if the Sox would sweep an opponent, any current Sox that played for the former opponent would have to buy something for the Sox.  Naturally, Crede has never played anywhere but Chicago so he was never subjected to the ritual but Guillen claims that Crede would "always come up with the cheapest [suggestions]."

 

It took an eternal wait of 252 plate appearances before Delmon Young hit his first home run in 2008.  This year it was just 12 plate appearances before Young smacked a Mark Buehrle 2-0 offering into the left field seats. 

 

Kelly Thesier informs us that Ron Gardenhire has promised that Brian Buscher will get a start soon.  Buscher has seen action twice so far in 2009 -- a pinch hit walk in the 9th inning of Tuesday night's comeback against the Mariners and a substitute for Justin Morneau on Saturday.  "I told [Buscher], 'Stay with 'em, you'll get in a ballgame pretty soon,'" Gardenhire said. "He's the only guy that I really haven't gotten in a game enough."

 

Last Wednesday, Mauer reiterated that there would be no timetable for his return while working out in Fort Myers, so the next few days will be a real test for Joe Mauer's back reports La Velle E. Neal.  After running in a pool to alleviate stress on the back, the Twins catcher is finally ready to run on dry land.  Mauer has been taking batting practice and bullpen sessions without experiencing any pain, however, it has been the running that has caused the most discomfort. 

 

The Star Tribune's Sid Hartman made an altogether not-so-subtle jab at Mauer's durability.  Says Hartman, "Mauer has also missed more than 150 games since his first season in 2004. Mauer missed 124 of those in 2004 when he suffered two different injuries at two different times. He did miss 30 games in 2007, and now he has missed six and likely will miss 25 or so this year."  The ancient columnist continued, adding "On the other hand, Justin Morneau played in all 163 games last year."  Drawing this parallel is like wondering why a person who runs a marathon is a tad more winded than the one who jogged around the block.  Former Giants catcher Bob Brenley once said of catching "By the end of the season, I feel like a used car."  Even Hall of Famer Reggie Jackson, who never caught an inning in his life, recognized the strain placed on the body and mind when choosing to squat behind the plate.  Jackson said "Get up. Get down. Get up again. Get down. Come up throwing. Take the chest protector off. Take the shin guards off. Hit. Put them back on. Go back behind the plate and repeat the process. Catching just breaks a man down, inning by inning, game by game, year by year."  Needless to say, the toll taken on the body between first and catching is vast. 

 

Joe Christensen submits the possibility of the Twins trotting out new uniforms to coincide with the inaugural year at Target Field.  Christensen suggests that the Twins should "[p]ermanently pack away those sleeveless vest alternate home uniforms, once preferred by Livan Hernandez. Or simply burn them."  I'm all for some updates, so long as none of which result in the the 1999's season's Turn Ahead The Clock uniforms. 

The Pioneer Press's Charley Walters needs to be given a pamphlet on statistical context.  On Saturday the columnist wrote "Mike Redmond is hitting .400 and has been just about everything the Twins could have hoped for while regular catcher Joe Mauer recovers from a back injury." Yes, at the time of publishing, the Twins backup catcher was batting .400 after starting two games and going 2-for-5.  By the end of the day Saturday, Redmond was a .222 hitting catcher.  By sundown on Sunday, Redmond was a .166 hitter after an 0-for-3 night against the White Sox.

 

Seth Stohs provides game notes for the weekend and updates on the entire organization. 

 

Nick Nelson gives his take on the three-game series in Chicago. 

Josh Johnson hands out his Game Balls for the Twins this past weekend. 

The Twins will face Jesse Litsch and the Toronto Blue Jays at the Metrodome starting tonight. In four starts against the Twins, Litsch is 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA in 26 innings pitched with nine strikeouts and four walks.  Delmon Young is 4-for-13 (.308 BA), Morneau is 3-for-10 (.300 BA) and Brendan Harris is 3-for-8 (.375 BA) with a solo home run. 

Game: Twinks 6, Marinerds 5

Game: Twinks 6, Marinerds 5

Box Score

Win Probability

Recap

Record: 2-1

The Quote: "We worked on that play in Spring Training and I fouled it up the only time I tried it in a game. This was better." - Mariners reliever Chris Jakubauskas

 

Eff.

 

That must have been running through Twins' right fielder Michael Cuddyer's head as he tried in vein to reach back to second base ahead of the Mariners' pickoff attempt.  With a nonchalant flick of his glove, Mariners' catcher Kenji Johjima set the pickoff play in motion.  The 30-year-old rookie on the mound, Chris Jakubauskas, spun counterclockwise and fired a bullet to shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt who broke to the bag on Johjima's signal.  Cuddyer did everything he could to do, short of snapping his ankles, to redirect his weight back to his right.  Betancourt applied the tag and the Mariners vacated the field at the end of seven without any further damage done, down by just the one run.

 

Replaying that sitaution, it was one-part inspired and one-part crazy.  With Cuddyer on second after a two-out double, the Mariners decided to put Justin Morneau on first.  Intentionally walking Morneau was nothing new.  In 2008, Morneau was issued 16 free passes intentionally, tied with the Angels' Vladamir Guerrero for league lead.  With a two-run home run and a run-scoring double already on this game's resume (plus his one-hopper to Jose Lopez was sorched as well), the Mariners figured that Morneau was zeroed in on Wednesday night.  What was curious about the decision was that the Mariners were opting to pitch instead to the left-handed Jason Kubel.  Maybe not as dangerous as Morneau, Kubel was still 2-for-3 with a run-scoring double of his own.

 

The Mariners made the personnel decision in 2009 to begin the year with no left-handed options in the bullpen, so there was no possibility of a LOOGY to match-up against Kubel.  Jakubauskas, an alumni of the independent Pioneer League, was throwing fairly well, already retiring five straight Twins before Cuddyer's extra base hit.  While the Twins and the rest of the spectators were busy contemplating the thought-process behind the Mariners' actions, little did they know the Mariners were about to pull some tomfoolery out of their hats.

 

Yes, it was a low percentage-type play that had a strong likelihood of imploding in their face.  An errent Jakubauskas throw could have wound up in center field, allowing Cuddyer and Morneau the opportunity to advance.  At the very least, the play may not have worked at all, pressing the need to pitch to Kubel now with two men on base.  Still, the entire sequence was ingenious.  A rookie manager in Don Wakamatsu, who has no previous track record for other teams to note his tendencies, called for the play at the perfect moment.  Like a magician, Wakamatsu provided misdirection when he walked Morneau, placing the focus on Kubel.  Cuddyer meandered off second too far and too lackadaisically as he attempted to get his two-out lead from second.  When Jakaubauskas pivoted, Cuddyer was dead in the water. 

 

Fortunately for the Twins, Jesse Crain and Joe Nathan combined to shut down the Mariners in the eighth and ninth innings to keep the one-run lead intact and give the Twins their second victory of the year.

Award Context: Jim Perry's 1970 Cy Young Award

Signed as an amateur free agent in 1956 by the Indians out of Campbell University, the 6-foot-4 right-handed Jim Perry quickly worked his way to Cleveland as a 23-year-old in 1959.  Working as mostly a reliever and a part-time spot starter, Perry finished his first year 12-10 with a 2.65 ERA in 153 innings of work, finishing behind the Washington Senators' Bob Allison in the Rookie of the Year voting.  In his sophomore season, Perry would led the American League in wins (18), starts (36), shutouts (4) and home runs allowed (35) while tossing 261 1/3 innings for the Tribe.  This performance would earn him a spattering of MVP votes as the Indians finished 76-78 in 1960. 

 

Between 1961 and 1963, Perry's career would divest from its original tracks as he would go 22-29 in 417 1/3 innings of work, and watched his ERA bloat to 4.44 as his strikeout rate dipped to 3.5 per nine innings.  When the Twins acquired Jim Perry from the Cleveland Indians, they traded for a 27-year-old swingman that had promise but was mired with a franchise that continued to miss the .500 mark in the early 1960s.  Upon his arrival to Minnesota, two things differed and had an immediate impact on his results: offensive and defensive support. 

 

While a member of the Indians, the Tribe scored 3.92 runs per game.  After relocating to Minnesota, Perry's new team was scoring an average of 4.76 runs per game.  The Twins also provided Perry with far superior defense -- one that was 70 fielding runs above average compared to the Indians that would be 17 fielding runs in debt.  For a non-strikeout pitcher that is reliant on the eight other guys on the field, that was a huge advantage.  Because of this, from 1964 to 1969, Perry would go 65-36 in 226 starts, post an ERA of 2.72 and increase his strikeout rate to 5.5 per nine innings of work. 

 

In 1970 the Twins won their second AL West championship in as many years, going 98-64.  In 40 games, Perry would go 24-12 with a 3.04 ERA, tied for the league led in both wins and games started and eventually being named the Cy Young Award winner that season.  You could construct a strong argument that two Baltimore pitchers, Dave McNally and Mike Cuellar, were both as qualified for the award as Perry.  Cuellar, the fourth-place vote getter and 1969 co-Cy Young award winner, led the league in winning percentage (.750) and complete games (21).  Perry, however, topped Cuellar in several key categories:

 

• Perry's WHIP (1.130 - 2nd in AL) was superior to Cuellar's (1.149 - 4th in AL).
• Perry allowed fewer walks per nine innings (1.841 - 2nd in AL) than that of Cuellar (2.086 - 4th in AL)
• In spite of having fewer overall strikeouts, Perry had a better strikeout-to-walk ratio (2.947 - 2nd in AL) than Cuellar (2.754 - 4th in AL).

 

Even though both McNally and Cueller managed to replicated Perry's win total and starts (24 and 40) there total appears to be a byproduct of a potent Baltimore offense.  The Orioles scored the pair more than a run above league average (5.17 and 5.32, respectively) and, unlike McNally and Cuellar's 24 wins, Perry's two dozen appear far more genuine when you consider the Twins generated 4.47 runs per game when he was on the mound.  Furthermore, McNally (.697) and Cuellar's (.667) had higher OPS against than Perry (.643).  In this context, Perry's 24 victories is a much better total.

 

The one pitcher that had a legitimate complaint about the final voting is Cleveland's Sudden Sam McDowell.  From 1965 to 1969, McDowell had led the league in strikeouts every season except 1967 when Boston's Jim Lonborg beat him by ten total (and with two additional starts).  In 1970, the 27-year-old southpaw ended the year with a 20-12 record while playing for an Indians team that won 76 games.  McDowell's 305 innings, 304 strikeouts and 8.9 K/9 led all American League pitchers.  In addition to that, several other key statistics reveal that McDowell's overall season was better than Perry's:

 

• His ERA (2.92 - 5th in AL) was better, albeit slightly, than Perry's (3.03 - 8th in AL).
• McDowell gave up far fewer hits per nine innings (6.694 - 2nd in AL) than Perry (8.3).  
• He struck out (8.9 - 1st in AL) three more batters per nine innings than Perry (5.4). 
• McDowell averaged Game Scores of 63 while Perry averaged 56.
• McDowell had a lower OPS against (.619) than Perry (.643).  

 

McDowell would have the disadvantage of not only playing for an Indians team that not only gave him pitiful run support (4.05 runs of support per game below the league average of 4.17) but his team was 32 games behind in the division.  The Sporting News would agree with McDowell's case and name him the AL Pitcher of the Year in 1970.  But regardless of the method, voters rewarded Perry for his gaudy wins total to narrowly beat out Baltimore's Dave McNally and Mike Cuellar and Cleveland's Sam McDowell to give the Minnesota Twins their first Cy Young award winner. 

 

Also found at BaseballDigest.com.