Wednesday, November 05, 2008

What Could Have $50 Million Bought Your Team? Part Three

On Monday and Tuesday, you showed how you spent $32.27 million of your $50 million budget on eight position players and five starting pitchers.  Today, you are going to detail what is often a team's hardest portion of the payroll to control.  At this moment you have $17.73 million remaining to acquire six or seven relievers AND somehow assemble a bench.  This was certainly not an easy task. 
 
In 2008 the Milwaukee Brewers used nearly that amount of money on just three members of the bullpen: closer Eric Gagne ($10 million), set-up man David Riske ($4 million) and Salomon Torres ($3.2 million).  These three combine for 21% of the team's total payroll for the season.  For $17.2 million, the front office of the Brewers had purchased 168.6 innings of work and a 4.48 ERA (2 Win Shares Above Bench).

Smarter organizations have learned to approach their bullpens with more fiscal responsibility.  The American League Champion Tampa Bay Rays had a budget of almost half of the Milwaukee Brewers yet managed to piece together one of baseball's best bullpens.  Troy Percival ($4 million), Dan Wheeler ($2.8 million), Trever Miller ($2 million), Grant Balfour ($500K) and J.P. Howell ($397K) were compensated $9.69 million combine, exactly 21% of the team's payroll.  By investing 43% less than their National League counterparts in Wisconsin, the Rays were able to acquire - either through a trade or free agent signing - five members of the bullpen that accounted for 302.9 innings and a 2.91 ERA (not to mention 20 Win Shares Above Bench). 
With your limited finances, you had to tailor your approach to follow the Rays model and ignore the "brand-name" relievers that were on the market. 
 
Long Man/Middle Relief | RHP | Chad Durbin | 4 WSAB | $900K
 
For you, the signing of Chad Durbin was an insurance policy.  While with the Tigers, Durbin was used both as a starter and reliver.  The idea was that, if necessary, Durbin could start in a pinch.  Your pitching coach, however, decided to tinker with him in the spring.  He instructed Durbin to rely on that slider of his.  In 2007, Durbin was throwing it only 18% of the time.  Your coach said to increase the usage, which he did, to nearly 38% in 2008.  As a result, Durbin was able reduce the number of flyballs and witnessed a gigantic shift in the amount of home runs surrendered (21 to 5).  Because of the improvement, your manager began to use him in higher leverage situations as the season wears on.  He throws nearly 90 innings and posts a 3.77 FIP in 2008. 
Middle Relief | RHP | Joe Nelson | 4 WSAB | $400K

Joe Nelson was your long shot for making the team.  Long in the tooth (33 years old), Nelson had been a career minor leaguer running through the Braves, Red Sox, Cardinals, Devil Rays and Royals before you came upon him by accident.  In 2006, the Royals gave Nelson 44.7 innings of relief that was mediocre at best (106 ERA+).  Again to suppress the cost of your bullpen, you extended a minor league contract to Nelson who ended up closing games for your AAA affiliate before being recalled in late May.  Nelson was a heavy fastball (65.2%) and changeup (32.7%) user which lead to a 60/22 K/BB ratio.   
 
LOOGY | LHP | Arthur Rhodes | 4 WSAB | $500K
 
Older than Methuselah, there wasn't much use for this 38 year old that did not pitch at all in 2007 because of elbow injuries.  You recognized his value as someone that would appreciate a role that was focused on retiring just one batter per appearance and accept a minor league contract.  In that context, Rhodes outperformed expectations.  In 81 plate appearances against left-handed batters, Rhodes held them to a .157 batting average thanks to a 91-mph fastball complimenting a devastating slider that runs away from left-handed batters - this lead to a 2.23 FIP.  Rhodes will most certainly explore the free agent market for the 2009 season and inevitably land a contract that overpays for his services.  His performance lands you a compensatory draft pick because he is deemed a Type B free agent.  You smile bigger than a Cheshire cat. 
 
Right-Handed Set-Up | RHP | Doug Brocail | 4 WSAB | $2.5 M

One of the biggest reasons that you extended a large sum of money for a 41 year old set-up man was that your pitching coach noted something.  Per the video that you had accumulated on players throughout the years, the pitching coach saw that Brocail's weakness was that he insisted on throwing his looping curveball (76-mph) as his secondary pitch (20.8% of the time).  Persuaded to implement a cutter (88-mph, 19.5%) in 2008, rather than his curveball, Brocail had a resurrection of sorts as a striking out pitching - averaging 8.39 in 2008 up from 5.05 in 2007.  He throws 68.7 innings and has a 64/21 K/BB ratio with a 3.83 FIP. Like Rhodes before him, Brocail's performance is greatly inflated by the Elias Ratings and he winds up a Type A free agent, netting your organization two compensatory draft picks. 
 
Left-Handed Set-Up | LHP | Tim Byrdak | 2 WSAB | $400K
 
Byrdak was signed as the cheap version of the left-handed 7th or 8th inning guy but wound up being interchangeable with Rhodes.  There was no reason for acquiring Byrdak besides his historically solid statistical evidence that he was effective against left-handed batters (.206/.297/.379 in 359 plate appearances versus left-handed batters on his career).  He throws 55.3 innings for you with a 47/29 K/BB ratio and a 5.46 FIP which would have been much better had your manager listen to your specific instructions to NOT LET HIM FACE RIGHT-HANDED BATTERS.  Allowed to face 138 right-handed batters, Byrdak is smoked.  He has a 17/20 K/BB ratio and opponents hit .289/.397/.614 off of him.  Almost like an alternate universe, left-handed opponents hit .135/.222/.247 with a 30/9 K/BB ratio. 
 
Closer | RHP | Kerry Wood | 6 WSAB | $4.2 M
 
With your current position, you have the advantage of going out on limbs.  Mark Prior spurned your attempts at signing in the hopes of a comeback season, but you were able to convince Wood that this was the location for him to rekindle his career as a closer.  He does this with velocity (94-mph) on his fastball that he hasn't seen since 2005.  Wood throws 66.3 innings with a phenomenal 84/18 K/BB ratio and a 2.32 FIP.  Though you would like him to return to close for you in 2009, his market value just skyrocketed and he will net you two more draft picks for being awarded Type A status. 
 
You commit 17.9% of your payroll to your bullpen and for good measure:  Your starting rotation is filled with unanswered questions that one area of your staff should have stability.  This core contributes 357.6 innings and 24 Win Share Above Bench for $8.95 million (not to mention five draft picks once their contract expired).  You now have $8.78 million leftover to sign six bench players. 
 

Monday, November 03, 2008

What Could Have $50 Million Have Bought Your Team? Part Two

Yesterday, you had outlined your plan as to how you acquired a solid starting lineup when your entire organization had died in a freak plane crash in the Andes Mountains shortly after the 2007 season's conclusion and you were allotted $50 million by the Commissioner's Office for hush money. 
   
The 2008 free agent class of starting pitchers was a weak one in every one's opinion.  The selection included the likes of Carlos Silva, Kenny Rogers, Jeff Weaver, Josh Fogg and whatever is left of Tom Glavine's arm.  These are not exactly your cream-of-the-crop, front-of-the-rotation arms.  This why so many quality arms were traded during the offseason (Santana, Garza, Haren, Bedard) at a king's ransom.  There was jacksquat on the open market.  Unlike your competitors who had a vast surplus of minor league arms and bats to offer in trade, you have nothing.  You must resort to scouring the leftovers in hopes of building a serviceable rotation - an act that felt like scraping the top of old Domino's pizza boxes in the efforts to make a semblance of a slice. 
 
What's more is that after allocating $21.4 million on your starting eight in the field, you must divvy the remaining cash ($28.6 million) wisely enough to purchase not only the five starting pitchers but six (or seven) relievers and four (or five) bench players.  Now it is time to analyze the starting five you secured.
 
The Rotation:

1 | RHSP | Kyle Lohse | 9 WSAB | $4.25 M
 
     Kyle Lohse led the charge by throwing 200 innings with a solid 119/49 K/BB ratio and 3.89 FIP.  You did consider making a play for Carlos Silva but realized that his asking price wasn't going to configure into your budget.  Lohse wanted similar money at first but when the months passed without offers from other teams, his agent panicked and began calling around looking for employment.  He graciously accepted your very reasonable offer and outperformed your expectations. 
 
2 | LHSP | Randy Wolf | 4 WSAB | $4.75 M
 
    The Lohse acquisition was followed by the left-handed veteran Randy Wolf.  Wolf, creeping into his 30's, would spend substantial time on the disabled list from 2004-2007 making him a somewhat unreliable signing but in the time that he was healthy, he tossed 376.1 innings and boasted a healthy 288/72 K/BB ratio.  A low-risk, one-year deal was offered and Wolf responded by throwing 190 innings with 162 strikeouts.  His 4.17 FIP suggests that he performed a bit better than his 4.30 ERA. 
 
3 | RHSP | Jorge Campillo | 6 WSAB | $400K
 
    After Wolf, your pitching coach noted that the third best starter in the bunch might be minor league free agent acquisition, Jorge Campillo.  The Seattle Mariners had originally signed Campillo away from the Mexico City Tigres.  "He's not a thrower as much as he changes speeds, has command," then Seattle general manager Bill Bavasi said. "He's probably average-fast, maybe a little bit below, but he can get above when he needs to." In several short stints with the Mariners, his fastball was barely cresting 85-mph when he had to have reconstructive surgery on his elbow and miss significant playing time.  The Mariners gave up on him after 2007 so you jumped on the chance to see if he was healed.  During spring training, he attacked the strike zone enough with his assortment of pitches that you took him north.  There, he pitched 159 innings with a 107/38 K/BB ratio and a decent 4.00 FIP.
 
4 | LHSP | Jorge De La Rosa | 3 WSAB | $1.025 M
 
    You nab journeyman left-hander Jorge De La Rosa for a $1.025 contract despite not being sure where to put him: in the rotation or the bullpen.  But that flexibility is why you decided on him in the first place.  His fastball tops 90-mph on average so you think he could be a decent left-handed arm in the bullpen if you cut him loose, but your coaching staff suggests that he is capable of handling more innings.  He gives you 130 good innings, racking up 128 strikeouts and a 4.06 FIP as your team's #4 man. 
 
5 | RHSP | RA Dickey | 1 WSAB | $450K
 
    This was suppose to be slotted for Mark Prior.  You offered him $2 million plus incentives but no dice.  Prior and his agent countered with $4 million...guaranteed. It was well known that Prior had wanted to play in warm weather and despised both the size of your team's city and the cold weather in the spring.  Fine, Mark, you say.  Enjoy San Diego. You moved on to the less discriminating pitchers and decide on Robert Allen Dickey.  The one time first round draft choice had a floundering career with the Texas Rangers before he decided to pick up the ball with his fingernails and float the ball in the direction of the plate rather than throwing it.  His 13-6 season with Milwaukee's AAA affiliate looked promising.  He struck out 119 in 169 innings and only walked 60, an indication that he has command over the hardest pitch to harness.  Though his introduction as a full-time knuckleballer was far from great (5.25 FIP, 58/51 K/BB) he did throw 112 innings working both as a #5 man and a long man out of the bullpen. 

    What did $10.87 million buy you for a starting rotation?   One that compiled 3.54 Runs Allowed (RA) cumulatively average in 791 innings of work.  Not completely terrible.  You have $17.73 million left to acquire six/seven relievers and four/five bench players. 

Sunday, November 02, 2008

What Could Have $50 Million Bought Your Team? Part One

    Let's say you are the general manager of a baseball team whose entire organization was on Uruguayan Air Force Flight 571 flying from Mendoza, Argentina to Santiago, Chile in November of 2007.  The reason for cross-navigating South America?  The Commissioner's office has tasked your team to assist in spreading Major League Baseball throughout the Southern Hemisphere by touring your franchise to play local teams.  This is a seemingly blackmail situation since the Commissioner was kind enough to lobby on your team's behave to a state in order to get public funding for your new $500 million stadium, your owner feels obligated to accept this request.  You are ordered to have your traveling secretary assemble logistics plans.  Because your organization is notoriously thrifty, your traveling secretary cuts corners whenever possible to save money, notably flight arrangements.  While en route to Chile from Argentina, the team's 1972 twin turboprop's pilot mistakenly banks right too soon and crashed your ballplayers into the side of an Andean mountain, left forever to parish in the crisp Chilean snow caps. 
    Thankfully, because of your miserly budgeting, these players were all ambiguous and nameless "replacement players" - the personification for the Baseball Prospectus's statistic, VORP.  Not one of them would be missed. 
    The Players' Union insurance company sees it a different way. Their view is that your organization is at fault because of the secretary's frugality in procuring what is determined to be an insufficient method of travel.  The organization is forced into paying all the existing contracts upfront, ranging from the lowly Rookie ballers to the underpaid Major Leaguers.  This all but bankrupts your fiscally tight team. 
     Because Major League Baseball knows they coerced your team into the barnstorming tour and do not want any more negative attention, the league provides the team's owner with $50 million dollars to shop for enough free agents to field a baseball team thus keeping the franchise alive until the current owner can find a buyer.  Looking to recoup some money in this tragedy, the owner tells you that you will field a team in 2008 and to begin scouring the open market using your $50 million in hush money. 
      This payroll amount gives you an advantage over just four other teams:  Pittsburgh Pirates ($49.3 m), Oakland A's ($47.9 m), Tampa Bay Rays ($43.8 m), and the Florida Marlins ($21.8 m).  Unlike these ballclubs, you do not have the advantage of dipping into your farm system for inexpensive talent as all of those players were on board of the tragic flight as well (maybe the crash had something to do with cramming 200-odd men into a plane designed to hold 50...).  In order to level the playing field for you, the Commissioner allows you to have free reign over the free agent pool before all of the other teams are allowed to sign players.  Who would you have targeted to remain in that budgeted amount of $50 million?
 
The Starting Lineup:
 
RF | Milton Bradley | 14 WSAB*  | $5.75 M | 2.4 WSAB per $1
 
Your scouts loved his swing from both sides of the plate and recognized his versatility of power and patience.  So you signed him based on that rather than his personality disorders which served you well.  During the 2008 season, he would chew up 509 plate appearances for your squad while setting a career-high in home run (22) thanks to your hitter-friend ballpark and led the league in on-base percentage (.436). 
 
Not a bad "get" for you with $44.75 million left to spend.
 
CF | Mike Cameron | 9 WSAB | $7 M
    
Big money spent on a player that would miss 25 games for failing MLB's drug policy.  Fortunately, Cameron would play stellar defense and finish as the 8th overall best defensive centerfield (+8 according to John Dewan's Fielding Bible), ahead of notable centerfielders such as Torii Hunter, who would later land a hefty contract when he wouldn't configure into your tight budget.  In addition to his glove, Cameron would deposit 25 home runs and hit .243/.331/.477 in 508 PAs. 
 
Cameron's acquisition would leave you with $37.25 remaining.  Looks like frugality time.
 
LF | Jody Gerut | 7 WSAB | $700k
 
Wow, you are a risk-taker of epic proportions.  Here you see value in a player that was not only was accused of having an unnecessary knee surgery in 2006 but also hasn't played an inning major or minor league ball.  After one of your scouts witnessed him in the Venezuelan Winter League mashing the ball, hitting .390/.488/.567 with 14 extra base hits in 141 at-bats, you take out a minor league contract on him - mostly to displace Cameron when he is serving his suspension.  Boy are you glad you did. Though a centerfielder by nature (+12, 5th best on the list of centerfielders in 2008), you use Gerut to patrol your spacious left field.  Unlike your two other outfielders, Gerut didn't strike out that much (14% k%) and smacked 14 home runs finishing .296/.351/.494 in 356 plate appearances. 
 
$36.55 left in the coffer.  
 
3B | Jorge Cantu | 6 WSAB | $500k
 
There was something that intrigued you about Cantu, especially in his 2005 season with the Devil Rays when he hit 28 home runs and compiled a .211 isolated slugging average.  In both 2005 and 2006 he was hitting line drives on nearly 20% of the balls in play.  When he washed out in 2007 with both the Devil Rays and then the Reds, people said "bust".  In 2007 he hit only 4 home runs in 300 at-bats split between the majors and AAA.  You reviewed his past minor league numbers carefully that show no indication that he is who he was in 2005 and 2006.  Strikes out a ton; walks about as much as a quadriplegic.  Then again, a consistent near 20% line drive rate each year of his career?  Might be worth the minor league flier - toss him aside if his spring training numbers don't show signs of life.  Against your statistical judgement, you sign him.  The power returns.  For pennies on the dollar, you end up nabbing a guy that hits 29 home runs and 41 doubles with an ISA of .204.  Cantu doesn't come without his faults.  He is atrocious at third (-11, 29th overall at third) and has actually accumulated 478 outs, the 7th highest in the league.  You'd pay half a million for that production again any day.       
 
Now, with $36.05 remaining, your sights are set on possible the hardest position to fulfill on the free market, shortstop.
 
SS | Jerry** Hairston | 8 WSAB | $500k
 
In 2007 while with the Texas Rangers, Hairston hit .189/.249/.289 in 192 at-bats.  What's more is that he hit even worse at the best hitter's ballpark in baseball - .172.  Plus he is tainted by the Mitchell Report.  Clearly this isn't the time to decide if you are a morally bankrupted organization as you had already signed Mike Cameron who would be serving a suspension.  If you wanted a holy and divine team you would have perused John Smoltz, Josh Hamilton or hire Gary Gaetti as your hitting coach.  In order to win, you have to become the Dallas Cowboys of baseball and grab inexpensive talent anyway you can.  Hairston, despite his shortcomings as a fielder, actually performs higher than expectations at the plate hitting, batting .326/.384/.487 in 297 plate appearances. 
 
Since Hairston is a brutal hack at short, better find a second baseman with range to their left to cut those grounders off up the middle with the remaining $35.55.
 
2B | Kaz Matsui | 4 WSAB | $5 M
 
With a thin second base market, you finally breakdown and sign someone to a 3-year deal that you figure won't damage your budget too much.  You ignore his statistics in Coors Field, assuming they are inflated by the high altitude and suspect that there will be decline and mostly focus in on his defense, but are pleasantly surprised when Matsui bats .293/.354/.427 in 422 at-bats.  As a bonus PR department enjoys the frequent press releases focusing on Matsui's early season surgery due to "anal fissures". 
 
$30.55 left and we haven't even gotten to first base or the pitching staff... 

1B | Doug Mientkiewicz | 4 WSAB | $750k
 
Like the second base position, first base was also a challenge to find worthy candidates on the market.  Mientkiewicz's agent wouldn't stop harassing you though.  He has become like Drama on Entourage, you think to yourself, desperate for work. The persistence paid off as you inked him to the one-year with an incentive laden contract for large amounts of bubble gum for every Web Gem.  Plus with all of the offensive-minded players in the infield, someone is going to have to be able to gobble up all their errant throws across the diamond.  His defense ends up being muddling at best, but his sudden rekindling of patience not seen since his Minnesota days astonishes your front office.  He walks 44 times and strikes out just 28 in 334 plate appearances.  You're criticized heavily for playing a guy with a .379 slugging percentage at first base - a position where the league average first baseman hit .479 - but you are happy with your selection for his discounted rate. 
 
$29.8 remaining...
 
C | Rod Barajas | 11 WSAB | $1.2 M (+ option year)
 
Ask any Philadelphian at the end of the 2007 if they were had by the Ballpark at Arlington factor when they signed Barajas to a one-year, $3-million dollar contract only and they would undoubtedly prattled off an endless stream of profanities.  Barajas would visit the DL list and finish the season batting .230/.352/.393 in 146 plate appearances, getting passed in playing time by Carlos Ruiz and Chris Coste.  Gillick would later tell you that felt like he was solidifying the defense of the team by signing Barajas.  You know that Barajas's career on-base percentage was low (.289) and you assumed that his career slugging percentage (.409) was probably created in that statistical mirage in Arlington that has led many a baseball executives astray.  On the other hand, the class of free agent starting catchers are Barajas and Jason Kendell.  The problem with signing Barajas is that you are quite confident you will have to find a stellar back-up catcher as well.  You exhale painfully and offer Barajas a contract since his agent was willing to go lower than Kendell.  A one-year, $1.2 (with an option year) contract is extended and he accepts.  In 2008, his presences on-base is so rare (.294 OBP) that your first base coach tastefully quips that Jenna Jameson was more likely to show up at first during a Barajas plate appearance.  The power that was zapped in Philly, however, has a small resurgence for Barajas in your lineup as he gathers in 34 extra base hits and slugs .410 (well above the MLB average for a catcher of .390).  Furthermore, he allows just two passed balls in 785 innings behind the plate providing stability for your pitching staff to throw to. 
 
You had spent just under half of your budget on your starting eight regulars.  You are left with $28.60 to sign five starters, seven relievers and four bench players. 
  
** Originally read "Joey Hairston". 

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Most Improved Prospects: Strikeout Rate

 
 
 
#5 - Garrett Olson - Inf | 23 years old | 16.6% K% in 2007 - 13.5% K% in 2008 | 3.1% decrease
 
Drafted by the Twins out of Maine's Franklin Pierce University in the 4th round (126th overall) in 2006, Olson first went to Elizabethton where he batted .313/.396/.381 in 147 at-bats at the short-season.  The 6'-2" right-handed batting Olson was sent to low-A Beloit in 2007 where he failed to replicate the same output as he did in 2006.  He witnessed his strikeouts spike to 79 and his overall slashes fall to .217/.285/.317 in 438 at-bats.  Twins officials opted to keep Olson at Beloit to open the 2008 season where he responded with a 30/17 K/BB ratio in just under 250 at-bats.  Encouraged by this, Olson was sent to high-A Ft Myers where he regressed significantly as evident by his 38/9 K/B ratio and his .201/.249/.258 batting line.  Still if you are looking for a silverlining on this 4th round draftee, it is that he dropped his strikeout percentage by 3.1% normally a sign of someone developing better plate disipline.  Unfortunately for Olson, his increase in walks was nearly as pronounced as his strikeouts (just +0.79% increase in BB%) meaning his career on-base percentage of .299 isn't likely to improve much.  On top of that, turning 24 in 2009 and still being around A-ball doesn't bode well for Olson either.
 
#4 - Matt Moses - Of/DH | 23 years old | 19.8% K% in 2007 - 16.0% K% in 2008 | 3.2% decrease
 
I detailed Moses's minor league career extensively a week ago when he landed, coincidentally enough, as the #4 Most Improved Walk Rate in the system.  Sure, nearly 30% of his total hits went for extra bases but you have to factor in his age, that statistic looks unimpressive.  Without going too much further into his career background once again, let's attribute this improvement to none other than his fourth tour with New Britain in the Eastern League. 
 
#3 - David Winfree - RF | 22 years old | 21.6% K% in 2007 - 17.3% K% in 2008 | 4.3% decrease
 
Like Moses mentioned before him, Winfree also finished the year as #3 Most Improved Walk Rate in the system.  But unlike Moses, Winfree's improvement carries an air of legitimacy.  His first introduction to AA New Britain was marred by a large drop in walks and large increase in strikeouts (26/106 BB/K) but his second dance proved much more reassuring that he is on the right track (41/87 BB/K) and stroking the ball all over the field (42% xbh%).  Another reason to like Winfree: he mashes left-handed pitching.  According to Minorleaguesplits.com, Winfree hit .292/.370/.608 in 120 at-bats against left-handed pitching in 2008.  In 402 career at-bats against southpaws, Winfree has maintained a steady .296/.354/.520 batting line. 
 
#2 - Daniel Berg - 1b/Of/DH | 23 years old | 26.6% K% in 2007 - 21.1% K% in 2008 | 5.4% decrease
 
Another member of the Most Improved Walk Rate squad (#5), Berg's success at reducing his strikeouts is somewhat surprising.  After spending a season split between Elizabethton and Beloit in which he struck out 59 times in 211 at-bats, Berg took on a full season at Beloit and saw his strikeout total swell to 103 in 333 at-bats.  The Twins front office moved him to high-A Fort Myers where Berg shaved his strikeout total to 49 in 222 at-bats and was advanced to AA New Britain where he struck out 18 times in 48 at-bats.  Striking out 44 fewer times in 2008 has led to additional balls put into play.  Since Berg hit line drives on 20% of the balls put in play, the results have been a .350 babip, leading to a .278/.374/.400 batting line (this is a hefty improvement over his 11% line drive rate in 2007).   
 
#1 - Johnny Woodard - 1b | 25 years old | 27.6% K% in 2007 - 21.3% K% in 2008 | 6.2% decrease
 
In 2003, the Twins used their 3rd round draft pick (88th overall) to select a powerful first baseman out of Consumnes River College in Sacramento.  Woodard, just 18 years old, would report to the Gulf Coast League Twins where that power failed to appear (8 extra base hits in 41 hits).  The following season, brought along slowly, Woodard would start at Elizabethton where he would led the team in on-base percentage (.385) and tied for second in home runs (8) in 194 at-bats.  This performance drew attention of Baseball America who ranked him on the Twins Top 30 prospects.  In 60 games with low-A Beloit, Woodard smacked eight home runs, in a season that had him sidelined all of April and June with a fractured foot.  However 2006 would be another lost year for Woodard who play in only 23 games with the Fort Myers Miracle but the slugger reemerged in Beloit in 2007 hitting .273/.390/.473 with 10 home runs in 205 at-bats.  This earned him a promotion back to Fort Myers where he struggled, striking out 64 times in 164 at-bats - totaling 126 on the season.  Once again at high-A Fort Myers to start the 2008 season, Woodard was limited to 245 at-bats but he greatly reduced his strike outs to 64.  His biggest detriment is his inability to hit same-sided pitching - in 195 at-bats, Woodard has hit only .190/.325/.318. 

Thursday, October 23, 2008

The Friday Flotsam

  • The Twins named Fort Myers Miracle pitching coach, Eric Rasmussen, the new Minor League Pitching Coordinator after the Detroit Tigers wooed Rick Knapp away from the organization to be the Tigers' pitching coach.  For the past ten years Rasmussen has been the Miracles' pitching coach helping groom the likes of Pat Neshek, Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Anthony Swarzak and so on.  In 2008, the Miracle pitching staff led the league in ERA and strikeouts.   Back in 2004 Rasmussen was asked to evaluate the progress of Scott Baker, now a potential ace for the Twins.  Rasmussen told the Naples News that "(Baker) is on track.  He mixes his pitches really well and he's got a good competitive spirit. His fastball is above average and he's got a slider like all these guys, that when it's on, it's an average big league pitch.  Most of these guys, when they were in high school, they threw hard enough to where it didn't matter, there's not much need for a changeup. That's the pitch, the one that needs to be developed in pro ball here."  Now, as the pitching coordinator for the entire farm system, Rasmussen will be able to keep sending that message. Indeed, the emphasis of the Twins organization had been to drive home not only the ability to throw a changeup but to throw it often.  This policy had bode well for the team's staff. It worked for Johan Santana* (who throws it 28.7% of the time in 2008), Francisco Liriano's is harnessing his more often (20.0% of the time) and Glen Perkins is starting to spot his more frequently (15.7%).   

*Santana's changeup development has been attributed to Bobby Cueller who was the AAA Edmonton pitching coach in 2002 when he instructed Santana to throw his changeup in every count.  "He always had the pitch," said Cuellar, "Johan had to learn to trust it. I told him, 'Don't be afraid to throw it at any time. Trust it, and it will do what it is supposed to do.' It's the hardest thing for a young pitcher to do."  Throwing a change nearly 30% of the time is certain to make an appearance in every plate appearance.   

  • Rick Knapp was very instrumental in working with the pitchers in the Twins' system.  Matt Garza recently told the Detroit Free Press that "[Knapp's] big thing is throwing strikes.  He wants you to be able to throw any pitch in any count for a strike. That's his philosophy."  Another Free Press, this time Mankato's Ed Thoma, penned another tribute to the departed pitching instructor.  Knapp's indoctrination of strike zone command within the minor league system has paid dividends since 2001 for big club.  Since 2001, the Twins have been either first or second in AL in walks allowed per game:
 
    2001 - 1st (tied) - 2.7
    2002 - 2nd (tied) - 2.7
    2003 - 2nd - 2.5
    2004 - 1st (tied) - 2.7
    2005 - 1st - 2.1
    2006 - 1st - 2.2
    2007 - 2nd - 2.6
    2008 - 1st - 2.5 
 
  • More minor manuvers: former Twins catcher Tom Nieto has been named the manager of the AA New Britain Rock Cats, succeeding Bobby Cuellar who will be assuming Stu Cliburn's position as pitching coach of the AAA Rochester Red Wings.  Nieto was brought into the Twins organization in Feburary of 1987 when the team packaged Neal Heaton, Jeff Reed, Yorkis Perez and Al Cardwood to the Montreal Expos for closer Jeff Reardon and played in 1987 and 1988 at which point he was traded to Philadelphia along with Eric Bullock and Tommy Herr for pitcher Shane Rawley.  

 

 

  • In September's GameDay Magazine, I penned an article outlining how a good number of Major League teams are relocating their minor league teams to cities closer to the fan base.  Atlanta, Philadelphia and Seattle were all examples of how a system within close proximity could help kindle the local interest in prospects developing in the minors.  Add Milwaukee to that mix.  The Brewers have signed a four-year Player Development Contact with the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (Appleton, WI) in the Midwest League.  Brewers fans have the opportunity to drive two hours north instead of to West Virginia when they were playing in the South Atlantic League as the West Virginia Power.  

 

  • For years I have believed that the image in Major League Baseball's now ubiquitous logo was the image of Harmon Killebrew.  Turns out I have been living a lie.  A recent Wall Street Journal article profiled the creator of the marketing device who said that it is not based on any one player said Jerry Dior, the New Jersey native who worked on the graphic while employed at Sandgren & Murtha, the advertising firm that created the image.  His son once heard the reference on a radio broadcast where the commentator made mentioned of the Killebrew connection.  "That's completely untrue. It's not Harmon Killebrew. It's not anyone in particular," was Dior's response.   
  • The Denver Business Journal reported that the Colorado Rockies had a substantial decrease in their viewership on Fox Sports Net Rocky Mountain, a 4% decrease.  Naturally, when your team goes from a World Series contender to an NL West pretender, the local interest wanes.  Not surprisingly, the Twins were among the biggest gainers in viewership (+10.4%) as the team transformed from a 79-83 team that was 17.5 games out of first in 2007 to a 88-75 team that finished one game out of first in 2008.  Likewise, the White Sox saw a 68.9% increase in people tuning in as they went from 24 games out of first in '07 to winning the AL Central via Game 163.    
  • Speaking of the Rockies, Bill Elliot from the Edmonton Sun noted that in 2002 - the infamous Moneyball draft profiled in Michael Lewis book - Colorado's front office desired Denard Span in their ninth overall pick.  A deal with Span could not be reached so the Rockies selected left-handed pitcher Jeff Francis instead.  Span fell to the Twins at the 20th overall pick but not before Scott Kazmir, Nick Swisher and Cole Hamels were selected by the Mets, A's and Phillies. 
  • When Hollywood and Major League Baseball come together it is often to mixed results.  The examples of "The Natural", "Field of Dreams", "Pride of the Yankees" and "Bang the Drum Slowly" are just some of the movies produced about the game that spin a worthy tale about the diamond and have been viewed as classic works of cinema.  To a lesser extent "Bull Durham", "League of the Own" and "Major League" are as well but probably not as highly regarded to film buffs as they are to baseball fans.  However, the questionable decisions to greenlight the likes of "Ed", "The Scout", "Summer Catch" and "From Left Field" certainly lends credence to the notion that there should be people fired for even suggesting to waste film on these disasters.  So when rumors began swirling that Lewis's Moneyball will be adapted into a screenplay to star Brad Pitt as the A's general manager Billy Beane, the book's main character, has been met with plenty of raised eyebrows.  For starters, while the book is insightful and informative, there doesn't seem to be a whole lot of action - at least any that could seemingly keep audiences transfixed to the big screen for 120 minutes.  A scene in which Pitt's Beane would spend 15 minutes filibustering about the merits of drafting college-level Nick Swisher over the high school arm of Cole Hamels in a draft room would probably be meet with anything but yawns from the general public.  Regardless of how the reviews read, I still will be interested to see how this story is laid out.  For those familiar with the central characters of the book, here is what Dirty Laundry envisions playing those roles. Supposedly this will be ready in 2011.