Most Improved Prospects: Walk Rate

 

 

In 2007, the two top prospects that led the walk rate improvement list were Luke Hughes (#2) and Brian Dinkelman (#1).  Dinkelman followed up in 2008 with a solid performance at high-A Fort Myers (though he was two years older than most of the competition) and was revered by Baseball America as having the "Best Strike-Zone Discipline" but Hughes had a breakout season that has led to him being rated by Seth Stohs and the readers at Twinkie Town as the #10 overall prospect in the organization.  Previously, Hughes was a virtual unknown.  John Sickels's at MinorLeagueBall.com asked the question of where Hughes came from and noting that even Baseball America didn't have Hughes listed among the top prospects for the Twins.  Outside of Dinkelman and Hughes, third baseman Brian Buscher was fourth on the list of most improved and he has found himself a comfortable home as a third base platoon at the Metrodome.  Who is in this year's top five for most improved walk rate and are they tomorrow's Twins?

 

#5 - Daniel Berg - 1b/Of/DH | 23 years old | 8.7% BB% in 2007 - 11.04% BB% in 2008 | 2.35% increase

 

Dan Berg, the Twins' 30th round draft selection in 2004 out of Texarkana College, spent his third minor league season at low-A Beloit in 2007 where he posted a lowly .214/.298/.291 batting line with a 32/98 BB/K ratio in 368 plate appearances.  His .589 OPS was well below the Midwest League's average of .696.  This was a significant regression from Berg who had spent 2006 split between Elizabethton and a sip of coffee at Beloit where he finished with a respectable .245/.348/.445 batting line with a 27/56 BB/K ratio in 234 plate appearances.  His induction to his first full season above rookie ball was rough, as he struck out in 26.6% of his plate appearances.  In Berg's defense, the organization was uncertain as to where Berg would best help the club on the field.  He would bring his infielder's glove, outfielder's glove, first baseman's glove and catching equipment to the dugout each day as well as being mentally prepared to be the designated hitter for that game too.  When he was assigned to high-A Fort Myers in 2008, the Twins had all but shelved the idea of Berg being a catcher.  Berg would play the majority of his games at first base and some in left field (those familiar with the Defensive Spectrum should deduce that the Twins are not particularly high on Berg's defense).  In 262 plate appearances with the Miracle, Berg pieced together his best season yet, batting .279/.381/.414 with a 32/49 BB/K ratio.  This earned him a promotion to AA New Britain.  In minimal exposure in the Eastern League, Berg's .255/.327/.319 batting line in 55 plate appearances is far from exceptional.  Berg, who will be 24 in the 2009 season, has now compiled a career line of .234/.329/.350 with 102/241 BB/K ratio.  He will most likely begin the season at New Britain and will need to put up similar numbers to his Fort Myers stint in order to continue to climb the organization's ladder the added patience is a good sign that he can adapted to the higher level of pitching. 

 

#4 - Matt Moses - Of/DH | 23 years old | 4.49% BB% in 2007 - 8.16% BB% in 2008 | 3.67% increase

 

When the Twins spent their 21st overall pick in 2003 on the third baseman out of Mills Godwin High School in Richmond, Virginia the front office figured they had found Corey Koskie's replacement in the coming years.  In 2004 as a 19 year old, Baseball America labeled him as the 3rd best prospect in the system.  His .224/.297/.362 batting line in just 128 plate appearances thanks to a lingering back injury while at the Gulf Coast League and Midwest League failed to meet the expectations placed upon someone that was viewed as one the best pure hitters in the 2003 draft.  In 2005, Baseball America dropped him down to the 8th best prospect as the Twins advanced him to high-A Fort Myers as a 20 year old.  While there, Moses showed why he was deemed a top ten prospect hitting .306/.376/.453 with a 28/59 BB/K ratio in 298 plate appearances.  This earned Moses a midseason promotion to AA New Britain where he was unable to compete with the pitcher's that were four years older on average (24.5).  In 204 plate appearances in the Eastern League, Moses hit a lowly .210/.275/.366 but did manage to slug 6 home runs.  Regarding this season as substantial progress, Baseball America once again named him the 3rd best prospect in the system.  The team decided to start Moses at AA giving the 21 year old a full season to develop with older competition.  Though he produced well in the power department (15 home runs, 16 doubles) he was ultimately over-matched as evident by his 35/113 BB/K ratio resulting in a minuscule on-base percentage of .303.  Moses fell completely off of Baseball America's radar.  Instead of giving Moses the opportunity to grow in AA in 2007, the Twins decided to push Moses to AAA Rochester.  The aggressive promotion backfired in the organization's face and after 48 games and a .224/.244/.305 batting line, he was shipped back to the Eastern League.  Part of the problem was that Moses reported to camp thirty pounds lighter than his 2006 season.  On the whole, the season was almost a complete wash in his developmental path as he finished with a .248/.283/.362 line with a 21/93 BB/K ratio and just 6 home runs.  In attempts to allow Moses to refine his swing and approach at the plate, the Twins started him in 2008 at AA again.  While there, he improved his peripheral numbers, walking 35 times and striking out just 65 times - a huge improvement for Moses - but he was unable to avoid defenders in the field as indicated by his .270 batting average on balls in play.  Nearly a quarter of his flyballs hit, which he did so nearly 40% of the time, were infield flies.  Together, this led to a unreasonably low .230/.293/.318 batting line in his third tour of AA ball.  Moses's, though still young, may be on the path to being systematically phased out of the Twins farm system as third base candidates like Dan Valencia and Luke Hughes continue to show progress in stark contrast to the direction that Moses is heading.   Bottom line?  The future is bleak for Matt Moses. 

 

#3 - David Winfree - RF | 22 years old | 5.31% in 2007 - 10.16% in 2008 | 4.85% increase

 

Winfree was drafted from high school 12 rounds lower than the aforementioned Matt Moses in 2003 but proved from the onset that he might be the better prospect after being named the organization's Minor League Player of the Year in 2005 while batting .294/.329/.452 with 16 home runs and a 22/93 BB/K ratio.  Excluding his inability to draw a walk, one would have to say that was a very good season for one of the top right-handed power bats in the Twins system.  With vaunted expectations moving into 2006, a shoulder surgery and a thumb injury caused his season to sputter and out of frustration, Winfree returned home to Virginia Beach on a leave of absence.  After five days away from baseball, Winfree returned to Fort Myers where he hit 13 home runs from the end of July to September and was sent to the Arizona Fall League.  In 2007, the Twins started Winfree in AA, making efforts to transition him from the third baseman (who made 34 errors in the season he was named Minor League Player of the Year) to first base.  At the plate, Winfree witnessed his peripherals slide (26 walks to 106 strikeouts) and ended the season with 490 plate appearances, 12 home runs and a .267/.308/.426 batting line.  Recognizing that Justin Morneau at first base is an immovable object for the next few seasons, Winfree was once again repositioned in 2008 as a right fielder (which with Denard Span and Michael Cuddyer there, it is just the same dead-end).  His range was essentially an arm span, Winfree made improvements at the plate in his second year in AA as a 22 year old.  Winfree almost doubled the amount of walks drawn (41) and significantly reduced his strikeouts (86) all leading to a better on-base percentage .319 and his 19 home runs led the team.  The challenge for Winfree in 2009 will be to continue to show patience at the plate and start to develop into a DH with the capabilities of displacing Morneau at first if he needs an off-day without losing much in the power department. 

 

#2 - Steve Singleton - Inf | 22 years old | 2.05% BB% in 2007 - 7.28% BB% in 2008 | 5.23% increase

 

The switch-hitting Steven Singleton was drafted out of the University of San Diego (along with relief prospect Anthony Slama) in 2006 with the 336th pick overall.  The 20 year old was sent to Elizabethton where he quickly thrived, batting .340/.368/.556 with 18 extra base hits in 156 plate appearances.  In 2007, Singleton was moved to low-A Beloit where his statistics took a dive, finishing the year with a .271/.294/.346 batting line and 8/47 BB/K ratio.  This past season, the Twins started Singleton back at Beloit where he made wholesale improvement in his game by increasing his walks (from 8 to 19) and reducing his strikeouts (from 47 to 29) and batting .302/.348/.421 in 259 plate appearances.  This production earned the San Francisco native a promotion to high-A Fort Myers where he continued this output, batting .295/.371/.452 in 277 plate appearances, but most importantly posted a 26/24 BB/K ratio against stiffer competition.  For the season Singleton finished batting .301/.362/.439 with 11 home runs and a 39/53 BB/K ratio.  In order for Singleton to emerge as a viable second base candidate, he would have to perform at a similar level in AA in 2009. 

 

#1 - Chris Parmelee - 1B | 20 years old | 9.16% in 2007 - 17.93% in 2008 | 8.77% increase

 

Going into the 2006 season, Chris Parmelee was rated the #4 prospect in the Twins organization, brimming with raw power in the farm system that hasn't been seen since Justin Morneau was brought to the big club.  After being drafted out of Chino Hills High School (CA) in 2006 with the 20th pick overall, the Twins sent him to Elizabethton where the six-foot, one-inch, 221-pound lefty mashed 8 home runs in 206 plate appearances (3.2% HR%).  The next season the organization progressed him to low-A Beloit where he hit 15 home runs in 501 plate appearances (2.9% HR%) but struck out an Adam Dunn-like 137 times (27.3%).  The problem with Parmelee in 2007, however, was that he was unable to draw walks the way Adam Dunn could (9.1% BB%).  Strikeouts are frequently blown out of proportion by those that see a number like 137 and assume the worst.  As in, he is a free swinger, an all-or-nothing type.  His 2008 season, his second tour of Beloit, proved the naysayers wrong.  After 226 at-bats, Parmelee was hitting .239/.385/.496 with 14 home runs when he ran into the outfield wall and suffered a wrist injury that would shut him down for the remainder of the season.  He is still at least two years away from seeing Major League action (especially after a season-ending wrist injury).  Still, Parmelee's advancements in his strike zone judgement, going from 46/137 BB/K in 2007 to 52/83 BB/K in 2008, is a huge step forward. 

The 2008 Starting Rotation: Analyzing By Game Score

 

    Game Scores, invented by Bill James, is a measuring stick of a pitcher's performance on any given day.  The advance statistic accounts for all of the events a pitcher can produce in a start (walks, hits, strikeouts, home runs, innings pitched, etc) and provides a tidy number in which to gauge a pitcher's effectiveness.  According to Baseball-Reference.com the formula they follow is as such:

Start with 50 points. Add 1 point for each out recorded, (or 3 points per inning). Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th. Add 1 point for each strikeout. Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed. Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed. Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed. Subtract 1 point for each walk.

    Finishing with a Game Score of 50 is roughly the equivalent of tossing a quality start.  If your pitcher achieves a Game Score 50 or above, he has provided his team with a good opportunity to win the game - provided that the offense and bullpen comply.  For instance, in 2007, Scott Baker pitched eight innings against the Detroit Tigers while striking out seven but was tagged with the loss following a Marcus Thames home run to defeat the Twins, 1-0.  Baker's offense apparently had not made the trip with him to Comerica.  For his efforts, Baker was credited with throwing a Game Score of 76.  These are what are known as "tough losses": losing despite unbelievable pitching.  

    These also occur when a starting pitcher is victim of a shaky bullpen.  On August 10th of this past season, Scott Baker was lifted after seven innings of work in which he surrendered only two earned runs and posted seven strikeouts leading to a Game Score of 61 against the Kansas City Royals.   With a 4-2 lead, Ron Gardenhire gave the ball to Matt Guerrier who gave up two singles before Dennys Reyes allowed those two to come home to tie the game at four.  Later in the 12th, Craig Breslow would allow a Tony Pena single to score  Mark Teahan from second to end the game 5-4 Royals. 

    The opposite of "tough losses" are "lucky wins", those wins in which a pitcher fails to crest 50 on the Game Score meter yet secures a victory due to an glutton of offense.   while if you throw a Game Score below 50 you are hurting your team's chances of victory.

 

 

Nick Blackburn - 11-11 (4-7 in no-decisions)

GS > 50: 8-4 (3-1)

GS < 50: 3-7 (2-5)

Average Game Score = 48

High Game Score = 74 (7/2 vs. Detroit)

Low Game Score = 15 (9/17 at Tampa Bay)

 

    What will remain crisp in most Twins fans' minds was Nick Blackburn's performance on September 30th, 2008 for game #163.  The right-hander had spent his previous five September starts struggling, averaging a Game Score of 40, and being hammered by opponents.  In 24 innings, opposing teams clubbed seven home runs off of him and scored 18 earned runs in 24 innings.  Despite pitching well into uncharted territory for Blackburn late in the season, he was asked to toe the rubber on the final night of the year.  Over the course of six innings of work set to a background of a swirling black mass of humanity, Blackburn stymied the Chicago White Sox, deploying his fastball, cutter and slider to keep the sluggers off-balance.  Unfortunately one bad pitch to Jim Thome would be the difference as Blackburn was pegged with the loss, one in which he finished with a Game Score of 61.  The offense, unable to conjure up anything more than two hits - let alone a run - failed to adequately support Blackburn's masterful game, leaving him with the hardest "tough loss" to accept all season.          

 

GS > 90 = 0

GS 80-89 = 0

GS 70-79 =  2

GS 60-69 = 9

GS < 40 = 10

 

    In 33% of his starts he gave his team all the necessary pitching to claim victory, but only on four of those eleven occasions did he do so away from the 612 area code.  Aside from his gem in Chicago (who were 88-74 on 9/30), Blackburn's opponents that had a Game Score over 60 were well under .500 (the Rockies (15-27 on 5/16), Royals (21-31 on 5/27) and the Indians (45-58 on 7/27)).  This shows the bipolar pitcher that Blackburn is when he was asked to pitch outside the Dome.  Seven of his 33 starts in which his Game Scores were below 40 were on the road as he went 3-8 in 19 starts with a 4.97 ERA.  But before I get to carried away denouncing his appearances away from home, I should put his performance into context.  The Twins staff as a whole was miserable outside of Minnesota, posting a 5.12 ERA, and so Blackburn's 4.97 ERA wasn't too far removed from the league which posted 4.67 ERAs on average during away games.  But we should not allow his travel indiscretions to mire his contributions that he made at home where he was every bit as good as the number 1 prospect ranked by Baseball America. At the Dome, he threw two games in the 70s and posted a 2.95 ERA while going 8-3 in 14 starts.  Even though he lead the team in innings pitched and starts, he is most suited to be a fourth or fifth pitcher behind Baker, Liriano and Slowey in 2009.

 

  

 Scott Baker - 11-4 (6-7 in no-decisions)

GS > 50: 9-3 (5-5)

GS < 50: 2-1 (2-1)

Average Game Score = 55

High Game Score = 81 (7/20 vs. Texas)

Low Game Score = 28 (8/5 at Seattle) 

 

    Look at that again: 22 of his 28 starts were above a Game Score of 50.  In 78.5% of his starts, he pitched well enough to give his team the opportunity to win those games.  That is the definition of an ace.  In just about every way Scott Baker improved.  In 2007, he was striking out 16% of batters faced.  In 2008, he upped it to 20%.  In 2007 he finished the year with a 3.89 FIP.  This past season, he dropped that to 3.79.  The most remarkable this about Baker is that he did this while squaring off against some of the best number one pitchers in the league.  In three separate starts, Baker matched up against C.C. Sabathia (2.70 ERA), Daisuke Matsuzaka (2.90 ERA) and John Lackey (3.75 ERA) only to throw three of his best games of the year with Game Scores of 70, 72 and 71, respectively.

 

GS > 90 = 0

GS 80-89 = 1

GS 70-79 =  4

GS 60-69 = 4

GS < 40 = 3

 

    In only three of his 28 starts did Scott Baker take the mound and fail to deliver an outing that placed the Twins with a win's reach.  In Arlington on April 26th, Scott Baker left the game trailing 4-2 after 4 1/3 innings but did not factor into the decision in a game the Twins ultimately won 12-6.  On August 5th in Seattle, Scott Baker matched up against RA Dickey.  Baker went 5 1/3 inning but allowed six runs - three by way of a Raul Ibanez home run - and despite the Twins efforts to score against the weak Mariner bullpen, they came up short 8-7.  The next came on August 16th at the Metrodome when he was knocked around by the last place Mariners for four runs in just 5 1/3 innings but once again Baker, along with the Twins, eluded a loss and won in the bottom of the ninth on a Brian Buscher sacrifice fly to score Joe Mauer from third.   So where Baker faltered in those three starts, the offense and bullpen provided backup as the team actually went two out of three of those outings. 

 

 

 Kevin Slowey - 12-11 (4-1 in no-decisions)

GS > 50: 11-3 (2-0)

GS < 50: 1-8 (2-1)

Average Game Score = 53

High Game Score = 89 (7/29 vs. Milwaukee)

Low Game Score = 10 (6/8 at Chicago) 

 

    Here's one thing you can say about Kevin Slowey: he doesn't get cheated in his starts.  In only three occasions did he get stuck with "tough losses".  It is easy to gain a victory if you provide an offense with a quality start and in return they average 5.20 runs per game when you are on the hill.  On the other side of the coin, Slowey was not particularly lucky either.  Just once did he manage to acquire a "lucky win" in a start in which he wasn't his sharpest. His season's best on June 29th against the visiting Milwaukee Brewers.  The Brewers were sending the 9-1 Ben Sheets to the mound.  Both Sheets and Slowey faced the minimum before JJ Hardy hit a one-out double in the fourth.  Slowey would allow two more hits the rest of the night and not allow a baserunner past following the Hardy double.  The offense, meanwhile, was boosted by Delmon Young's second home run of the year and rallied for five runs off the hard-throwing righty. Slowey pitched a complete game and finished with eight strikeouts and no walks for the team's highest Game Score of the season at 89.   

 

GS > 90 = 0

GS 80-89 = 1

GS 70-79 =  4

GS 60-69 = 5

GS < 40 = 4

 

    In 27 starts Slowey gave the team an ample opportunity (Game Score of 60 or above) to win 10 times.  The Twins did win each of those 10 games as well something that cannot be said about Baker's nine (7-2) or Blackburn's eleven (9-2) of the same caliber. 

 

  

Glen Perkins - 12-4 (4-6 in no-decisions)

GS > 50: 8-0 (0-3)

GS < 50: 4-4 (4-3)

Average Game Score = 46

High Game Score = 75 (8/11 vs. New York Yankees)

Low Game Score = 20 (5/30 vs. New York Yankees)

 

    Here's a guy who was not handed one "tough loss" and he owes his offense a debt of gratitude for that.  Glen Perkins's record (12-4) significantly outperformed what would have been expect with someone posting a 5.14 FIP thanks to an extra run per start over the team's average (6.23 runs per game).  His season outside of that solid winning percentage was of mixed results.  He led the staff in home runs allowed (25) and was drilled for 12 home runs over the span of seven starts from August 22nd to September 27th.  Those seven games were ugly: 35 1/3 innings pitched, 23 earned runs, 14/10 K/BB ratio, a 5.86 ERA and a .333/.373/.647 opponent batting line with an average Game Score of 40 per start.  This could be indicative of several things.  The first of which being the total amount of innings pitched.  He threw 184 innings split between Rochester and Minnesota, well above his previous high.  The second ties the aforementioned inning count which was that Perkins was a year removed for a severe left shoulder injury that forced him to sit out the majority of the 2007 season.  Pitching in this territory certainly could have led to a tired arm, one that was throwing a fastball 2-mph slower than in 2007. What we should focus on were his eight games between June 9th and July 18th were Perkins did not allow more than 3 earned runs in any of those starts, averaging Game Scores of 52.  In that span, Perkins threw 50 1/3 innings, allowed 19 earned runs, posted a 26/14 K/BB ratio, a 3.40 ERA with an opponent average of .267/.318/.405.  This Perkins is more in tune with his minor league track record, where he had a 380/144 K/BB ratio with a 3.50 ERA in 367 2/3 innings pitched.  Another offseason of restrengthening his shoulder could result in a sustained performace in 2009 like his June-July stretch.   

 

GS > 90 = 0

GS 80-89 = 0

GS 70-79 =  2

GS 60-69 = 2

GS < 40 = 8

 

    Nothing spectacular here.  He spun two really good gems and a pair of solid ones but for the most part he posted Game Scores between 59-41 (46% of starts were winnable).  Four of his eight starts that falls under the category of "detrimental" in the month of September with Game Scores under 40.  Subtract those from the mix and he resembles someone that could provide a number three starter production in the fourth or fifth spot in the rotation.  Assuming that the shoulder has time to heal further this offseason, he will likely accomplish that in 2009 as well.

 

 

 Francisco Liriano - 6-4 (0-4 in no-decisions)

GS > 50: 5-0 (0-3)

GS < 50: 1-4 (0-1)

Average Game Score = 51

High Game Score = 72 (8/15 vs. Seattle)

Low Game Score = 15 (5/24 at Oakland) 

 

    Let's throw out the first three starts which includes his low Game Score of 15 against Oakland, m'kay?  That was a Liriano that was just regaining a feel for the ball and the strike zone.  Outside of those, Liriano pitched very well, averaging a Game Score of 56 in those 11 starts.  What is worth mentioning about that stretch of starts is that Liriano faced just one team that was above .500 - Tampa Bay Rays September 21st. Except for the Rays Liriano would face the Royals three times, the Mariners twice, the A's twice, the Indians twice and the Tigers once.  These are not exactly high quality lineups that would present a true test of his acehood.  Nevertheless he made highly productive contributions in the rotation and twice he was denied a victory by his bullpen and lack of run support (just 4.11 per start) after pitching well at Seattle and Oakland in back-to-back starts. 

GS > 90 = 0

GS 80-89 = 0

GS 70-79 =  2

GS 60-69 = 5

GS < 40 = 4

 

    Keep in mind that two of the four starts that were under a Game Score of 40 were of the first three starts of the year for Liriano - the others, unfortunately, came in September during a period when the team could have really used a win to avoid a one-game playoff.  A full offseason and spring training will certainly go a long ways to shifting these number back towards the 70s and 80s that he was twirling in 2006. 

The 2008 Starting Rotation: An Analysis of the Record of Opposing Batters

 

Prior to the 2008 season, I studied the batting line of the projected three frontline starters for the Twins (Hernandez, Bonser and Baker).  This was a technique suggested by Bill James when trying to look beyond the standard record and ERA statistics.  The idea is that if your starting pitcher's batting line was comparable to Houston's Michael Bourne (.229/.288/.300) you have a pitcher of ace quality.  Conversely, if your pitcher's batting line looks strikingly similar to Albert Pojuls (.357/.462/.653), that hurler might already be booked for a flight back to one of the team's minor league affiliates (if not back to his hometown). 

 

Livan Hernandez

AVG/OBP/SLG

.342/.375/.520

Comparable: Brian McCann

The findings showed that in 2007, Livan Hernandez made every batter hit like Victor Martinez - the 2007 version of Martinez, that is - who batted .301/.374/.505.  At the time I wrote that employment would be short-lived if Hernandez's results in 2008 emulated those of 2007.  In 24 starts in 2008 Hernandez's opponents batted .342/.375/.520, a lofty step backwards.  Hernandez saw the 2007 Victor Martinez and raised a 2008 Brian McCann, who hit .301/.373/.523 this past season.  The Twins continued to sign his paycheck well into June mostly because of a 6-2 record through 13 starts despite a .339/.369/.506 batting line against in those outings.  It would take a serious slide in victories over the course of the next 10 games (4-6) for the organization to consider cutting Hernandez loose.  Some teams, like the New York Mets, excrete desperation for starting pitching.  When Hernandez was designated for assigment by the Twins, Tony Bernazard, the Mets' vice president for player development, told the NY Times “We will look into anyone who is available.”  It would be the lowly Rockies that claimed him on the waivers.  His stint in Colorado would turn really ugly as National League opponents hit .345/.399/.571 off of him.  While most organizations would be intelligent enough to keep their distance from this sort of volatile there will be one or two ballclubs that will be willing to give Hernandez a spring training invitation because he finished the season with a winning record (13-11) and was able to work 180 excruciating innings.    

Boof Bonser

AVG/OBP/SLG

.285/.333/.443

Comparable: James Loney

Boof Bonser is a curious case study.  The hopes of the organization going into 2008 was the Bonser would shed excess body weight return to the pitcher that appeared at the end of the 2006 season moving, but after making 12 starts and sporting a 2-6 record the Twins banished him to the bullpen.  His 5.97 ERA and record was a poor reflection of his performance as he was actually pitching better than either statistic suggested.  In those 12 starts opponents were batting just .267/.316/.418 (comparable to Miguel Tejada's season).  Once in the bullpen though, Bonser collapsed.  He faced 236 batters in relief, opponents hit .307/.353/.474 (Jose Reyes), while he couldn't keep runners from scoring as indicated by his 57.9% left-on-base percentage.  This was the worst strand-rate by any American League pitcher to log over 100 innings. The underlying problem that manifested itself in 2007 continued into 2008, which was that Bonser could no longer retire left-handed batters.  In 2007, Bonser turned all lefties into Kevin Youkilis. The group of wrong-handers collectively hit .349/.407/.563 off of Boof in 411 plate appearances.  This past season, lefties hit .315/.378/.489 in 243 plate appearances, a comp resembling Magglio Ordonez. This was an oddity considering that in 198 plate appearances in 2006, Bonser had limited left-handed opponents to .251/.305/.454 split.  What had happened over the course of the two seasons?  In 2008, Bonser used mostly fastball (63%), curves (19%) and sliders (11%) when facing lefties.  He would rarely use a changeup (6%).  The results of 2007 were the same: fastballs (58%), curves (23%), sliders (10%) and the occasional changeup (8%).  Yet in 2006, it was his changeup, not his slider that was his third most used pitch.  He used the changeup 12% of the time against lefties and was much more effective.  Because he is out of options, the Twins have tentatively labeled him the long relief guy in 2009, though judging from his splits, he would be better suited as a ROOGY. In order to return to the success that he experienced in 2006, Bonser should implement his changeup as his third pitch when facing lefties.     

Scott Baker

AVG/OBP/SLG

.247/.294/.381

Comparable: Carlos Gomez

In 2008, Baker emerged and grabbed the title of staff ace, leading the rotation with the lowest batting line against of .247/.294/.381.  Coming into the season, Scott Baker also had the best record of opponents batting among the three starters in 2007 and I noted that Baker had the stuff to pitch his way into Brandon Inge territory, who in 2007 had a depressed .236/.312/.376 batting line.  Going sheerly off of OPS, Baker actually did slightly better than turning batters into Inge (675 OPS versus 678 OPS), but unfortunately for Twins fans, his closest comparable in 2008 was none other than Carlos Gomez (who had an OPS of 656).  Baseball-Reference.com has Boof Bonser listed as the closest comparable at age 25 for Baker.  Now that he is entering his 27-year-old season in 2009, the similarities between him and Bonser will deviate significantly.  Baker will assume his rightful position as a number one or number two starter in the 2009 rotation, giving the Twins an excellent right-left combo with Francisco Liriano, and, if he can remain healthy, should accumulate 200 innings for the first time in his career.   

Nick Blackburn

AVG/OBP/SLG

.292/.330/.441

Comparable: Bengie Molina/James Loney

Nick Blackburn is the successful version of Boof Bonser.  They both had similar groundball rates (44.9% gb% versus 40.7%) and line drive rates (20.9% ld% versus 20.4% ld%) and opponents hit Blackburn just as well as they did Bonser.  Yet one of them was asked to start the one-game playoff against Chicago and the other was picking splinters out of his bulbous ass in the bullpen.  What separates Blackburn from Bonser?  The simple answer is that Blackburn can pitch from the stretch and Bonser can't.  With runners on base, opponents were hitting just .274/.307/.390 off of Blackburn as opposed to .306/.348/.481 when he was pitching from the wind-up.  Bonser, meanwhile, implodes when runners reach.  Opponents were batting .322/.349/.467 when Bonser was throwing from the stretch - which has led to Bonser's 57.9% LOB% versus Blackburn's 70.7%.  Blackburn's numbers leave me to believe that he is a number four/five starter, certainly a valuable one who gained postseason experience in his matchup with the Chicago White Sox and had thrown nearly 200 innings in his first full major league season, but if Blackburn is traded during the offseason to obtain a shortstop or third baseman, I wouldn't be surprised either.   

 

Kevin Slowey

AVG/OBP/SLG

.260/.298/.438

Comparable: Kevin Kouzmanoff

Kevin Slowey's 2008 season reaffirmed that his minor league pedigree would follow him to the majors as he posted a 123/24 K/BB ratio, barely losing to Scott Baker for the team's lowest OBP allowed.  Twins fans might balk at seeing Kouzmanoff as Slowey's comparable considering that Kouzmanoff has been one of the rumored third basemen that the team has been interested in, but he almost has the identical K/BB (139/23) and hit just one home run fewer than Slowey allowed (23 versus 22).  Though they are very similar, Kouzmanoff's sophomore season was a huge regression while Slowey's sophomore year was a huge progression in development.  As a flyball pitcher, Slowey benefited from the speedy outfield duo in Carlos Gomez and Denard Span and also took a big step forward in preventing the ball from leaving the park as his home runs to flyball ratio decreased from 16.5% in 2007 to 11.5% in 2008.  Slowey's improvements suggest that in 2009 he will be a frontline starter with Baker and Liriano giving the Twins three solid starters to enter any big series.  

 

Glen Perkins

AVG/OBP/SLG

.301/.334/.493

Comparable: Raul Ibanez/Melvin Mora

Yes, seeing Ibanez as the most comparable probably isn't a good thing but it does fit as Perkins surrendered two of his 27 career home runs to Ibanez.  Perkins was lauded because of his 12-4 record but led the staff in runs allowed per nine innings (4.83) and home runs allowed (25).  His success is exaggerated because Perkins received 6.23 runs per start from his offense - a full run higher than Slowey's 5.20 per game, who finished the season 12-11.  His high opponent average against is because batters are able to make solid contact, as indicated by his 22.6% line drive rate.  Perkins fell apart in September going 0-1 with a 7.45 ERA while opponents bashed him for seven home runs and hit .384/.421/.733 off of him in five starts.  His minor league stats suggest that he is probably better than what he showed in 2008 but not that much better.  The Twins should consider selling high now for infield help.  Both Seattle and Milwaukee will be looking for pitching help this offseason and have Adrian Beltre and JJ Hardy, respectively.  Then again, with the bind that the Twins were in for starting pitching after trading away Matt Garza, the organization might shy away from trading away pitchers with major league experience.   

 

Francisco Liriano

AVG/OBP/SLG

.254/.327/.392

Comparable: Jeremy Hermida/Mark Teahan

Francisco Liriano's 2008 season is hard to label.  His first three starts in May were disastrous in a foolhardy move by the front office.  In those three starts, opponents hit .366/.509/.415 skewing the final opponent batting record, unfairly making him seem comparable to Jeremy Hermida or Mark Teahan.  When Liriano returned from Rochester the second time, opponents hit just .258/.296/.360 - once again turning opposing team's lineups in Carlos Gomez.  Had Liriano had a full season with this performance, his 656 OPS against would have overtaken Baker's 675 as the team's best.  With an entire offseason to prepare for the next year instead of rehabbing, Liriano should be expected to be the Twins' number one starter in 2009. 

New and Improved: A Dissection of Grant Balfour

 

Once upon a time in the fast-paced 1990s, the Minnesota Twins drafted an Australian and transplanted him from the Land Down Under - where women roam and men plunder - to Fort Myers, Florida (which has three Outbacks) to develop what international scouts had discovered was a dominate fastball.     

Splitting his first three professional seasons with the GCL Twins, Elizabethton and Quad Cities, Balfour worked 247 innings with a record of 17-11 and a 213/84 K/BB ratio.  At 22 years old and his first season of A+ ball in Fort Myers, the Twins organization thought he would contribute most from the bullpen - able to rely on his fastball at full-tilt and not have to spread it out over six innings or more.  Balfour transitioned well.  The following season in 2001 he opened up the season in AA New Britain where in 50 innings of work, he struck out 72 and converted 13 save opportunities, earning a promotion in July, taking the roster spot of Quinton McCracken.  Like most prospects, Balfour's introduction to the higher level came with growing pains.  Unfortunately for Balfour, his first call of duty would be against the Seattle Mariners.  

The 2001 Seattle Mariners would score nearly six runs per game (5.74) on their way to 116 victories.  The young fireballer was like a lamb to the slaughter at Safeco Field.  Kyle Lohse would start the game and throw 4 1/3 ineffective innings, kindly leaving a nice mess of Bret Boone on third and John Olerud on first with only one out for Balfour to clean up.  His first major league matchup was with Mike Cameron, whom he would strike out for the second out.  He would walk Al Martin to load the bases but induce an inning-ending grounder out of third baseman David Bell to conclude his initial outing.  The next inning would not go so smoothly as he would give up a walk, sacrifice bunt then a bunt base hit to Ichiro (not a rarely feat considering he had 242 that year) followed by a sacrifice fly to give him his first earned run of his career. 

 Five days later, the Twins would find themselves doing battle with the same Mariners at the Metrodome.  Once again Kyle Lohse would be the starter who would last just five innings against the potent run-producing lineup.  Down 8-3, manager Tom Kelly would call upon Grant Balfour as his third pitcher of the night.  Balfour would surrender a solo home run to Ichiro followed a batter later with a two-run blast by Bret Boone.  The loss would move the Twins in a tie with the second-place Cleveland Indians.  Deciding that more calvery for the bullpen was needed if they expected to compete all season, Terry Ryan sent left-handed starter Mark Redman to the Detroit Tigers in exchange for Todd Jones.  One day later, Ryan would make room for his new bullpen arm by optioning Balfour to AAA Edmonton.  Jones, of course, would be no help as the Twins spiraled to the finish, going 25-39 the rest of the way.  Balfour would continue his trend in AAA:  In 11 appearances, he worked 16 innings while striking out 17 but walking 10 and giving up 10 earned runs.

    

Balfour would spend all of 2002 in AAA, posting very good numbers are the parent club would return to the postseason for the first time in eleven years.  In 2003, when Mike Nakamura was unable to provide relief to the bullpen, Balfour would be recalled in July.  In 26 innings of work, Balfour posted a decent 4.15 ERA and a 30/14 K/BB ratio.  His 2003 performance would allow him to return to the Twins bullpen in 2004 when he would toss 39.1 innings with a 4.35 ERA and a 42/21 K/BB split, but not before being placed on the DL for six weeks with a sore shoulder to the ire of the coaching staff.  Making it back to the playoffs, the Twins would keep Balfour and his mid-90s fastball on the postseason roster.  In the deciding Game 4, Balfour would be asked to replace Johan Santana going into the sixth inning with Twins 5-1 lead over the Yankees.  Balfour's two scoreless innings provided Ron Gardenhire with some brief reassurance that he made the right move, that is, until Juan Rincon surrendered a three-run home run to Ruben Sierra. 

 

Deploying a hard fastball (69% of the time) and a slider (10%), the Twins began dreaming of a 2005 bullpen that would consist of Joe Nathan, Juan Rincon, JC Romero and Grant Balfour.  It would, however, remain just that: a dream.  In spring training, Balfour began to indicate he had forearm tightness and missed the majority of spring training.  Since he was jerked back and forth from the minors to the majors, Balfour was out of options and would have to either start the season on the DL or pass through waivers before being outrighted to Rochester.  Balfour's inability to give the Twins coaching staff any sort of timeline irked them with the season opening swiftly approaching.  "He [Balfour] said, 'I felt fine for the first eight minutes, but not so good the last two,'" Gardenhire said. "What am I supposed to do with that? Is he good to go, or does he have a problem?" 

 

Doctors would confirm that it was a muscle strain, shutting him down for the remainder of spring training, making him a DL candidate to start the season.  After being cleared to begin throwing off the mound, Balfour experienced setbacks, noting pain in the forearm when throwing 80% in sessions.  At the end of April, the Twins decided to have Balfour get exploratory surgery done on the arm to determine once and for all if he would require Tommy John surgery.  The surgery would reveal an 85% tear in his elbow ligament necessitating the Tommy John.  "It was nice to go in there and find out why I was having trouble with my arm," Balfour said. "It rules out all the questions."

 

The surgery followed by rehabilitation would take Balfour out of the game for over a year.  After briefly working out in Fort Myers in the fall at the Twins complex, the team ultimately decided to offer a 2006 contract to Balfour.  It didn't take long for the Cincinnati Reds to take out a flier on him, giving him $340K in hopes that Balfour would be ready by the second-half.  "He was originally operated on by Dr. Kremchek, so we have a pretty good idea here of what's involved," Reds general manager Dan O'Brien said in January. "He's currently in rehab. He will be reporting to major league camp, but will not be physically able to compete for a job in spring training. If everything goes as planned, he could likely return about midseason."  Balfour would only throw nine innings in the Reds farm system before being claimed by the Brewers in October, selected by O'Brien who was ousted at his GM position and took up a special advisor role in Milwaukee. 

 

The 2007 spring training started off poorly for Balfour. "So far, not that great a couple of games," said Balfour, after giving up six earned runs on seven hits in just 3.3 innings of work. "I feel like I got some ground balls. There are other parts of the game where I could have made a better pitch and helped myself buy getting out of the inning. With two outs, I kind of let things slide instead of bearing down and getting more focused and getting the hitter out."  The regular season wouldn't be much better.  In July, Balfour was recalled along with Manny Parra, a left-handed prospect that had once pitched along side Balfour at the Futures Game in 2003, only to implode in his three outings, logging 2 2/3 innings will seceding six earned runs, four walks and four hits.  On July 30th, the Brewers shipped him to Tampa for Seth McClung, ending O'Brien's experiment of reviving the righty. 

 

According to Fangraphs.com, Balfour's fastball was only registering 92.9-mph while in Milwaukee, well below the 96-mph that he was hitting with the Twins prior to the Tommy John surgery.  In addition to the decline in his velocity, Balfour leaned heavily on his slider, spinning it nearly a quarter of the time.  The Brewers may have given up on Balfour too prematurely, because by August, Rays manager Joe Maddon was singing his praises.   "I definitely see a power arm," Maddon said. "I've seen him beat fastball hitters in fastball counts when they know a fastball's coming, and that's always nice to do that. I've been impressed. I would like to get to the point where you can start using him two days in a row. We see a possible bright future with this guy, so we want to take care of him. We want to get a good look and take care of him at the same time."

 

Once in Tampa, Balfour begin using mainly his fastball again (77%), which was regaining speed, up to 93.2-mph on average at the end of the season.  "The scouting of Balfour was really good," said Joe Maddon. "When Andrew [Friedman, the Rays' vice president of baseball operations] picked him up, he told me about his strike-throwing and velocity and all that other kind of stuff -- his breaking ball. This guy just needs opportunity. He's been waiting for this moment. He's interesting, because I think as he gains arm strength [based on recovery from surgery], he could be very good."  In his 22 innings with the Devil Rays, Balfour struck out 27 and walked 16 while allowing just one home run, providing a solid arm for the Devil Rays projecting into 2008. 

 

In 2008, his fastball had been dominate.  But it didn't begin according to plan.  The Rays decided to designate Balfour for assignment, effectively making him available to anyone that wanted to pay the waiver fee and opting to keep Scott Dohmann on the roster in Balfour's stead because of "overall strike zone command".  The Australian accepted his assignment to AAA Durham and continued his resurgence, working 23.2 innings, allowing just five hits and striking out 39.  On May 29th, with Rays closer Troy Percival needing DL time, the team decided to recall the flamethrowing right-hander that had been lighting up the International League. 

    

"Pitching is about confidence," Balfour said upon his return from Durham. "Get on a little bit of a roll and take it from there. Just go out there and drop a zero. Then go out there and drop another one. Like hitters getting hits. I just tried to roll with it as long as I could. Everyone loves to pitch in close games. I enjoy the pressure of key situations. I think you come in really zeroed in, really focused.  You should be focused every time you go out there. But when it's 10-1, 11-1, it's different. Guys will tell you that. It's different when the game is on the line."

    

Using his 94.6-mph fastball nearly 92% of the time, sprinkled in with an 86-mph slider has led to a groundball rate of 61% and a 12.65 K/9 - the second highest among AL relievers.  It is evident that not only is Balfour one-hundred percent healed, but he has a new-found confidence that has propelled the Rays bullpen deep into the 2008 playoffs. 

    

Offseason Mishmash (10.07.08).

 

• Similar to our local media mantra of the "overachieving" Twins, the White Sox are implementing the same phrases when reflecting back on their 2008 season now that they are officially eliminated from the playoffs.  Owner Jerry Reinsdorf sounded off following the Sox's 6-2 loss to the Rays: ''I feel like we had four elimination games, five including this one, but [general manager Ken Williams] did a great job putting this team together. 'At the start of the season, none of the seers, none of you guys thought we would be here. I remember reading the newspapers in April, some of the most vicious things I've ever read were in the newspapers in April. 'How can they go to the well with [John] Danks and [Gavin] Floyd?' But Kenny knew how important they would be, he went after them and he got them.  The Cuban [Alexei Ramirez] was great. [Manager Ozzie Guillen] did a fabulous job, there's nothing to be ashamed of. On the contrary, we should be proud [of the season].''
  Still the finger-pointing continues on the Southside as pundits seek out answers...  Two obvious scapegoats appear to be Orlando Cabrera and Nick Swisher.  The Chicago Sun-Times columnist Chris De Luca believes that the pair will be reduced to just one.  Cabrera, acquired in a trade with the Angels for right-hander Jon Garland in November of last year, toiled as the number two then leadoff hitter - batted .281/.334/.371 in 730 plate appearances in the regular season - but like most of the White Sox didn't perform in the ALDS going 2-for-16.  In Game 1, Cabrera kicked dirt at home plate towards Rays pitcher Grant Balfour, a former Twin, in efforts to "challenge" Balfour.  Balfour had accused of yelling the "f-word" after a hitter would swing at his pitch, something that he said he always does, "I’m the same pitcher I’ve been all year. I talk to myself a lot out there, no one else. That’s not going to change."  The challenge backfired on Cabrera, and Balfour rang him up for the strikeout. "It was nothing, just a moment of heat on the battlefield," Cabrera said. "We were trying to challenge each other. Apparently, he likes to be challenged. So I was just trying to take his mind out of the game and challenge him a little bit, and he won the battle."  As an impending free agent, Cabrera's chances of remaining a White Sox in 2009 fall somewhere between "slim" and "none"... The White Sox made a steep investment on Swisher, trading three promising prospects in Gio Gonzalez, Fautino de los Santos and Ryan Sweeney, and are now committed to paying Swisher $21.05 through 2011 (with a $12m option on 2012).  In response, Swisher flat-out failed to perform to expectation.  When attempting to find the differences between his 2006 season, where he batted .254/.372/.493, statistics that the White Sox front office assumed Swisher would produce, the peripherals offer little insight.  The manner in which he put the ball in play was identical.  In both seasons, the switch-hitting Swisher put the ball on the ground 35% of the time.  In 2006, Swisher hit line drives 20% of the time compared to 19% of the time this past season.  Likewise on the plate appearances that he did not put the ball in play also correlated as his ability the draw a walk (15%) and strikeout (23%) mirrored each other in 2006 and 2008.  Swisher was unable to catch breaks as his batting line plummeted to a career-low of .219/.332/.410 in 588 plate appearances thanks to a depressed .249 batting average on balls in play - well below the AL average of .302.  Swisher's batting average on balls in play from the right-side of the plate took a nose dive to .204 in 168 plate appearances.  Meanwhile, in 2006, Swisher boasted a BABIP one hundred points higher (.306) in 176 plate appearances from the right-side.  This analysis would suggest that Swisher was most effective when batting left-handed and a detrimental to a lineup when hitting right-handed.  A seemingly obvious conclusion, right?  Apparently not to manager Ozzie Guillen who paired Swisher with the left-handed batting Dwayne Wise during the ALCS, exposing Swisher's soft right-handed bat in Game 2.
• Sabernomics writer JC Bradbury says that his projected marginal revenue model indicates that CC Sabathia should command a $144 million dollar contract for six years - roughly $24 million per season.  This would certainly price Sabathia out of the Brewers' market but there is financial wiggle room for general manager Doug Melvin.  At $80 million in payroll heading into 2008, the Brewers will purge themselves of $10 million after Eric Gagne is gone, another $10 million by declining the option of Mike Cameron and another $11 million if Ben Sheets leaves via free agency leaving $31 million to extend a contracts to the arbitration-eligible Prince Fielder, second baseman Rickie Weeks, and shortstop JJ Hardy while earmarking $24 million of that $31 to ink Sabathia.  "The numbers you hear for a player like CC start to approach what we pay the team, so you have to be creative on how you structure things. But, they've got financial advisers and they can be creative, too, so we'll see," owner Mark Attanasio said...  The unfortunate contract that the Brewers would most like to unburden themselves with isn't going anywhere, that's the two-years and $25-million left on Jeff Suppan's contract, which would provide the front office with half of Sabathia's expected annual salary over the next two seasons.  JSOnline columnist Michael Hunt believes that the Brewers could shop both Fielder and Weeks for pitching if the bidding for Sabathia goes astronomical. 
• Speaking of the Brewers -- they are overweight. 
• Reports out of Texas say that during a hotel bar fight in Galveston, Texas, a police officer punched the Houston Astros' Brandon Backe in the face twice after a post-wedding altercation led to the police being called.   Backe had been a member of the wedding party and ignored the officer's request to back away from the fight.  Being hit repeatedly is nothing new to Backe has he surrendered 36 home runs and 202 hits in his 166.7 innings of work in 2008.  Backe finished the season 9-14 with a 6.05 ERA.
• Since the Twins were ousted from postseason play, many have begun to deconstruct what could have happened differently, how one win here or there might have been the difference between watching in Tropicana and playing in Tropicana.  Detroit Free Press's John Lowe noted that the Twins had dropped four games to the Tigers after leading going into the 8th inning.  Two of those losses to the Tigers came during Detriot's putrid 2-10 start to the season in April.  Pat Neshek and Jesse Crain failed to secure the victory in back-to-back games on April 14 and April 15 at Comerica.  In Neshek's instance, he entered mid-inning with a 9-7 lead and runners on first and second with nobody out.  Neshek was able to get Renteria to induce into a potential doubleplay ball that only got the runner at second.  With runners on first and third and one down, Ivan Rodriguez blasted a triple to center to score both Miguel Cabrera and Renteria to tie the game.  Former Twins Jacque Jones hit a sacrifice fly to give the Tigers a 10-9 led.  The following day, the Twins took a 4-3 lead into the bottom of the eighth and manager Ron Gardenhire called on Jesse Crain to retire the top of the Tigers order.  Clete Thomas struck out swinging but Placido Polanco walked.  With just the one out and Gary Sheffield batting, Crain threw wildly on a pickoff attempt that allowed Polanco to reach third.  Able to induce a pop foul to Mauer from Sheffield, Crain was nearly off the hook when Maggilo Ordonez doubled to right followed by a Miguel Cabrera home run to put the Tigers outfront 6-4.  This is just another example of the need to address issues in the bullpen this offseason.