The Friday Flotsam

* The Twins are now one-half game behind the White Sox in the American League Central, thanks to a steadfast Detroit Tiger bullpen who fended off Chicago 8-3. The Tigers have had a tough month of August. After trading Ivan Rodriguez to the Yankees for former closer Kyle Farnsworth at the trade deadline in efforts to solidify a bullpen riddled with injuries, the Tigers relievers have responded with a 5.21 era in 19 innings pitched in August. The Twins are landing in Kansas City ready for a three-game series against the Royals, finding themselves in one of the most beneficial situations since Matt Dillon signed on to do Wild Things. As the Twins prepare for a series against a team that has a losing record at home (27-32), the White Sox, meanwhile, have a four-game series against the Boston Red Sox. Now, maybe it is over-inflating the situation comparing it to a Campbell/Richards sandwich when the Red Sox have not performed well on the road (26-33) and are Manny-less, but since jettisoning Ramirez and acquiring Jason Bay, the Red Sox are 5-1. So the fact still remains the Twins are in a good position to ascend in the standings over this weekend.

* Like the Twins who are discovering offensive answers within their own system, the Royals finally took the initiative and promoted the 27-year-old shortstop Mike Aviles. Since his call up in May, Aviles has received 231 plate appearances and has hit 7 home runs and is batting .330/.355/.529. Baseball Prospectus 2008 described Aviles as a good-bat, no-glove shortstop. Considering the alternatives the Royals have deployed in recent memory, sacrificing a little glove love is understanding. After all, it took the Royals three entire seasons of medicrity of Angel Berroa before deciding to move on to Tony Pena Jr. "I can remember turning in good reports on him,” John Wathan, Royals Assistant to Player Development said. “I had him labeled as a major-league second baseman with the ability to fill in at shortstop. I was always impressed with his bat.”

Year	Royals SS	plate appearances	batting average	on-base percentage	slugging
2008	Aviles	231	.330	.355	.529
2007	Pena	532	.268	.282	.357
2006	Berroa	501	.235	.260	.355
2005	Berroa	652	.270	.305	.375
2004	Berroa	554	.262	.308	.385
2003	Berroa	635	.287	.338	.451

* The Royals will open the series with Kyle Davies, the right-hander the they acquired in trade with the Atlanta Braves for Octavio "Shhh!" Dotel in 2007. Davies has recorded victories in his last two starts in spite of going only 5 innings in each of those games. “You don’t want to give up runs, but you also want to make sure you go deep into games,” Davies said. “One of the reasons you are a starting pitcher is to go out there and go as long as you can. Four or five innings is not very good for the team.” A completely valid point, especially for someone opening up the a three-game series in which a bullpen can be fried quickly in the first game. The Twins need to strike quickly tonight in efforts to make Royals manager Trey Hillman dig into his bullpen early.

* The Tampa Bay Rays, in their first ever pennant race, grabbed Chad Bradford off of the waivers from the Baltimore Orioles. "A very interesting acquisition," Tampa Bay manager Joe Maddon said. "No hitter says, 'Oh good, we have a sinkerballer coming in. It's a different weapon that we haven't had." The Rays will send the Orioles a player-to-be-named-later with the $3.5 million due to Bradford for 2009. Bradford, while posting a solid era, has been in a steady decline when gauging his peripheral statistics. His strikeout rate has dropped from 17% in 2006 to 10% in 2007 to 8% this season. Strange enough, his velocity has decreased but then gained speed this season. His fastball went from 79 mph in 2007 to 78 in 2007 to 80 this year. One of the best aspects about Bradford is that he was inducing groundballs nearly 70% of the time this year while pitching in high leverage situations - next to closer George Sherrill and Jim Johnson, Bradford has been the Orioles most reliable reliever in tough situations. Dave Cameron did an nice analysis of him at Fangraph. The Twins, who with the lower record than the AL East leading Rays had the ability to claim Bradford prior to Tampa, could have definitely used his arm out of the pen down the stretch run. It will be interesting to see the organizations explanation for not claiming Bradford - most likely due to his large contract.

Notebook Dump (08.04.08)

Game: Twinks 7, Marinerds 3

Box Score

Record: 63-51, 2nd place, 1.0 game back

Streak: 1 win

The Quote: "I never dreamed this. I've always had confidence in myself, but I never imagined I'd be helping this team this soon." - Denard Span, Twins Right Fielder

The Inning: One night after rewarding a pair of ticket-holders in the right field seats with souvenir home run balls and finishing the night 4-5 with 3 rbis, the Belle Fourche, South Dakota native, Jason Kubel, earned the right for a curtain call for the second consecutive game. While Kubel was certainly deserving of an encore, there was just one caveat: Jarrod Washburn. Washburn, the left-handed soft tossing starting pitcher, uses an assortment of junk to quelch any left-handed batter's advances. Deploying mostly a fastball (87.7 mph, 51%) and a slider (78.6 mph, 31%) to incite same-sided opponents into hitting a marginal .268/.316/.366 in 133 match-ups, Washburn has had some success against these match-ups. Kubel, meanwhile, had been one of manager Ron Gardenhire's favor platoon candidates limiting his plate appearances against lefties to just 20% of his total. This is justified as Kubel has been hitting just .172/.270/.297 against southpaws (not to mention 0 for 3 against Washburn in previous match-ups). Still, one of his two home runs against the left-handers came last night against reliever Cesar Jimenez in the 8th inning of Tuesday's game so Kubel was dispelling Delmon Young in left field for the afternoon in a "What Have You Done For Me Lately" managerial decision.

In the top of the 2nd inning, Washburn went to work on Kubel, starting with an 88 mph fastball that missed wide of the plate. The Mariners' hurler followed this with another fastball of like speed that cut the corner for strike one. Kubel worked himself into a count that he has found comfort in this season. With the count 1-1, Kubel had been hitting .423/.423/.577 - well above the American League average of .331/.336/.517. This count, usually considered even, clearly favors the batter as pitcher's are most likely locating a pitch in the zone to avoid falling behind. In this case, the pitcher on the mound is a "crafty" veteran who may have been aware of these circumstances. Washburn slipped Kubel a 76 mph curve that was up in the strike zone, which Kubel chased and pulled to first baseman Bryan LeHair (Is the Ball LeHair nickname already taken?) who flipped to the covering Washburn for the first out.

With one out, the Twins recent replacement for Craig Monroe, Randy Ruiz, came to the plate. With 30 years, 9.5 minor league seasons and 2 performance enhancing drug suspensions later the Bronx native Ruiz finally found himself with a team that could use his employment. Had the Twins front office not been so ambitious with the acquisition of Monroe from the Chicago Cubs this past off season, they may have found the ideal and inexpensive player with the necessary skill set ready to mash left-handed pitching from Day One. Instead, it took over a half a season to make this realization. Ruiz had punished left-handed International League pitching to a tune of .315/.386/.495. What's more is that Ruiz fared better against his right-handed counterparts, batting .321/.359/.511 with 13 home runs, making him not just your average platoon Designated Hitter. Without any real scouting report assembled on Ruiz yet, Washburn attempted to work both sides of the plate, missing with a fastball but getting him to chase a changeup wide of the plate for a foul tip. Washburn tried to work low and in then went high and in with his fastballs. The count now full, Washburn hit too much of the inner half of the plate with a fastball which the 235-pound Ruiz redirected to centerfield for his second hit of his young major league career.

A runner now on first and Washburn throwing from the stretch, Brendan Harris was due up. Harris has been one of the overlooked pieces of the Delmon Young-Matt Garza trade. On opening day, Harris was anointed the starting second baseman but after a poor showing at the plate in May (.217/.320/.289) and June (.242/.270/.379) was continued to be penciled into the lineup because of a revolving door of injuries to Adam Everett, Nick Punto and Matt Tolbert, not to mention the slump of Mike Lamb. The Twins received a vote of confidence in July as Harris hit .294/.355/.456 with an isolated power average of .162. This output he continued into the current month, through 19 plate appearances in August, he has outperformed all of his previous months hitting .389/.368/.667 with a mammoth .278 isolated power average, doubling more often then a Vegas blackjack table full of drunken Japanese businessmen. Washburn went to bust him up and in with fastballs, where, according to Inside Edge scouting reports, Harris is most susceptible: when swinging at pitches in that area of the strike zone, Harris is hitting just .182. Washburn used a pair of fastballs that Harris fouled off. On the 0-2, Washburn wasted a pitch that Harris laid off (in fact, just 7% of his swings have been at pitches that have been outside the zone away). Reconsulting his scouting report, Washburn went back up and in to induce Harris into a groundball to the left side of the infield, a result that happens 20% of the time when Harris puts a ball in play. Harris has a dreadful average on balls put into play that remain in the infield on the left side, just .179, so it took an error by the Mariners third baseman Adrian Beltre in order for Harris to reach successfully.

Following the error by Beltre, Ruiz and Harris occupied first and second respectively with Kubel being the lone Twin retired so far in the 2nd inning. The ensuing batter, Adam Everett, stood a very good chance of replicating Kubel's feat. Since the 31 year old returned from disabled list he had been held hitless in 6 at-bats. Prior to the injury, Everett was not of much use either as he hit .189/.235/.324 in 83 plate appearances through May 21st. Falling behind 2-1 to the career .245 hitter, Washburn did the one thing he shouldn't have. He grooved an 89 mph fastball down the middle of the plate, the one area of the zone that Everett has hit with success (.321 on babip). Everett slapped it to left in front of Raul Ibanez for a single and Randy Ruiz, the big boy that he his, puffed his way from second to score the first run of the game. For Everett, it was just his 8th rbi as a Twin.

Unnerved by this base hit to a player that had barely crested .250 in his career, Washburn walked Carlos Gomez on seven pitches. This was amazing on several accounts. One, Gomez typically sees an average of 3.4 pitches per plate appearance - the second fewest pitches in the American League per plate appearances (besides the current Mariner shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt, who at 3.1 is the most efficient out in the American League). Two, Gomez drew a walk. This is event, like Halley's Comet, happens once every 28.1 plate appearances. This abysmal 3.5% walk rate is absurd for someone who was allowed to account for 415 plate appearances in the leadoff spot.

The bases now full of Twins for Denard Span who was approaching the plate for his second time in the afternoon. Span as been the Anti-Gomez since being given the lead off spot. As Gomez provide the Twins lineup with a .281 on-base average in his tenure batting first, Span has sported a robust .358 on-base average - a 27% increase in on-base percentage since the switch. Though Gomez reached first in what manager Ron Gardenhire described as "exciting", such as bunting and legging out infield hits, Span has been, by that standard, ho-hum, wasting 3.8 pitches per plate appearance before making his move to first. Compared to Gomez's 28.1 plate appearances between walks, Span likes to take the free base a little more frequently, walking once every 8.2 plate appearances. With the renewed production at leadoff Gardenhire is singing a different tune. "[Span'll] bat No. 1, and he'll play every day. I can tell you that," Gardenhire said following the game on Wednesday afternoon. And he should play everyday based on his July/August numbers: In his 103 plate appearances in July, Span hit .321/.412/.488 complemented nicely with a .167 isolated power average. As the calender turned, Span stayed hot hitting .263/.318/.526 in 22 plate appearances, smacking the ball with a .263 isolated power average. Though the sample size is small, Span, like the majority of the other Twins left-handed batters, has had success against left-handed pitching as well hitting .317/.417/.585 in 51 plate appearances this season. Back at the second inning at Safeco, Span was situated smackdab in the middle of a critical rbi spot. After striking out Span on four straight fastballs without a swing in the first inning, Washburn initiated the 2nd battle between the two with a 77 mph curveball on the outer edge of the strike zone that Span fouled off. Up 0-1, Washburn employed his 91 mph fastball that burned the outside corner that Span foul tipped back to catcher Jeff Clement. Now with the count clearly in Washburn's advantage at 0-2, he was in position to toy with Span. Get him to chase a ball out of the zone or climb the ladder, tossing one well above the strike zone. Instead, Washburn went to his aforementioned slider that he relies on with lefties. Obviously the intention was not to hang a slider, more than likely the desired location was to clip the inside corner or drop well outside the zone. Span turned on the 79 mph slider and pulled in clear into the right field corner. Ichiro raced to the ball as the Twins on base raced home. Span slid safely into third with his fourth triple and 13th, 14th and 15th rbis of the season ahead of him to increase the lead to 4-0. "It just kind of hung up there over the plate,'' Mariners catcher and Iowa native Jeff Clement said after the game - a game that happened to be the 63rd victory for the Minnesota Twins thanks to Denard Span.

The Second Coming

In his first start back with the Minnesota Twins following an April demotion, Francisco Liriano set out to prove the he is indeed the pitcher reflective in his minor league numbers. Star Tribune's Jim Souhan recently penned a column speculating on the trade deadline hours after it past. Souhan bravely suggested that Liriano should have been the prime trade bait in the efforts to net a right-handed slugger: "Fans remember Liriano as unhittable and charming, and he has scythed through the International League this summer. Talk to someone other than a stat geek, though, and you'll hear that Liriano is facing mediocre competition, is throwing most of his fastballs at 91 mph, and will not be the dominant force fans remember, even if he stays healthy." Whether your a stat geek or curmudgeonly scout it is hard to deny that in the past three months Francisco Liriano has shown steady improvement. Unfortunately the only way to show it in writing is through the use of demon statistics: In 39 innings in May, Liriano walked 6.5% and struck out 17.6%. In 36.2 innings in June, he walked 5.2% and struck out 24.7%. July was by far his best of the year, walking 3.9% and striking out 32.8% in 34 innings. By all accounts, he was attacking the strike zone and winning the match-ups in front of him regardless if they were the 1998 Yankees on the best kind of steroids or a Walter Matthau coached gaggle of misfits.

"I've seen him a lot in the last couple months down in the Minor Leagues, and he goes out and pitches his heart out. He has been dominant down there. He's been striking people out when he needs to strike people out, getting ground balls when he needs to get ground balls. He's doing an excellent job. I hope to see when he comes back [Sunday] what he is going to do, because I know everybody is going to be happy here." said his Red Wings and now Twins teammate Randy Ruiz.

In Souhan's mind, the pathway to the postseason would have been to ship Liriano to Seattle for Adrian Beltre so that Beltre could hit 3-run home runs for the Twins only to have Livan Hernandez give up 6 runs thereby deleting Beltre's contributions.

Thankfully people smarter than Souhan are at the helm of the Twins.

Souhan's logic is flawed as one bat for two years in exchange for the valuable left-handed starting pitcher would have been a steep price for an organization to pay. However the basis for his for wanting to package Liriano is reasonable. The words "Tommy John recovery" makes people cringe - especially after his first introduction back into the Majors following his entire year off.

In his April 24th start against the Oakland A's, one that produced six earned runs in two-thirds of an inning of work, I charted his pitch location and types with the assistance of MLB's Pitchf/x system. The data showed that several problems persisted with the left-hander from Dominican Republic. First, the findings showed that Liriano had a significant decrease in his velocity, throwing his fastball in the 88-91 mph range (consistently under 90 mph in that game). Fangraph.com shows that he was throwing his fastball 94.7 mph in 2005 and 2006 while averaging just 90 in his three starts in 2008. Secondly, in addition to a decline in velocity that day, Liriano had as much control as a University of Florida frat boy on spring break: 48% of his pitches were outside the strike zone, just 4 of the 9 batters faced were met with a first pitch strike (two of which were gifts from swings on high fastballs). In his dominating 2006 season, 67% of his pitches were strikes. As opposed to 2006 when he was getting the first pitch strike 60% of the time, this season he began the count 0-1 only 45% of the time in 2008 - a 15% decrease in the amount of match-ups starting in the pitcher's favor. While it may appear that there is a negligible difference between 0-1 and 1-0, but American League batters are hitting just .263/.279/.355 after the count starts at 0-1 and hitting .280/.393/.451 when the count starts in their favor. Therefore on average there exists a greater than 10% increase in the opponent reaching base if the first pitch was a ball.

What contributed most to the six earned runs that day was the fact that when Liriano did locate the strike zone (52%), it was down the heart of the plate (20%) with the substandard fastball with little movement. On top of that his off-speed pitches were not able to masque the fastball. He threw his change-up as the set-up pitch that game and did not get chase swings from the very patient Oakland lineup. The slider, once a golden bullet in his arsonal, is now thrown at 79 mph down from the hard 87 mph that resembled a fastball coming out of his hand only to drop away from the left-handed swing and tie up a right-handed batter as it dove into their ankles. Now it lacked the sharp break and speed to make it effective. In that game he threw just one slider to Rajai Davis. It registered 81 mph on the radar gun.

In the post-game press conference after the Oakland game, manager Ron Gardenhire spoke to the media amidst all indication that Liriano had been given his last start in Minnesota in long time. "We've got some discussing to do right here," Gardenhire said. "We've seen him and know where we are at with him. That's very important. So the comeback continues. No one said it was going to be easy, and it's not an easy thing when you sit out that long. We believe this young man is going to be a very, very good pitcher for us. It's going to take a lot of work, and we'll see where we are at over the next few days and make some decisions on what to do next."

After 10.3 innings of work with a 11.32 era and 13 walks to 7 strikeouts, the Twins gave Francisco Liriano the additional time to regain his feel for the mound. Liriano responded well to the demotion. It was his last ten starts with the Red Wings where Liriano went 9-0 with a 2.51 era. Most encouraging was his 73 strikeouts and 9 walks in 64.2 innings of work which prompted a recall (after his agent filing charges that the organization was intentionally holding him back first).

Nearly three plus months and a time zone to the east later, Liriano found himself once on the mound in a Twins uniform, in control of a day game. In a broad stroke, the results (6 innings, 3 hits, 3 walks, 5 strikeouts and no runs) show that improvement was made while in Rochester. The MLB Pitchf/x data reflects the same: His fastball, one that he threw 62 times, was constantly in the 90-92 mph range indicating that he has gained 2 to 3 mph in between major league starts. He threw the slider 19 times with greater velocity, between 81-83 mph - another sign that his arm is closer to recovery from the Tommy John - plus he was able to incite missed swing four times and only had one slider put into play (Jamey Carroll put a grounder into play that Brendan Harris overthrew Nick Punto on). This progress suggests that he is closing the gap between what he was and what he currently is. There are also plenty of red flags amid the data. Just 8 of his 24 match-ups began with a first pitch strike, leading to more 1-0 counts. In addition to that, he was out of the strike zone (66%) even more than his April 24th game (48%). These kind of numbers often spell large quantities of runs for opponents as Liriano was not in complete command of his game. "Triple-A baseball's different than here," Gardenhire said. "There's a few veteran hitters, but a lot of guys swing, swing, swing. As we go along, we're going to see some veteran teams that don't swing. They're going to take pitches, and those are going to be challenges for him to throw more pitches over the plate."

But what differed most between the August 3rd Liriano and the April 24th Liriano was where he was locating his pitches. Against Oakland, Liriano elevated too many pitches as 20% thrown were in the top-half of the strike zone or higher. That kind of placement of a 89 mph fastball typically end up as line drives or flyballs. On Sunday, Liriano threw just 9% of his pitches in the top half of the strike zone, tossing 55% in the lower half of the strike zone, a region more prone to inducing groundballs. Finding the zone and keeping it low will be the recipe for success for Liriano.

Did Chicago Really Improve?

Following Sox general manger Kenny Williams's exchange of pitcher Nick Masset and second baseman Danny Richar for Cincinnati's right fielder, the people at AccuScore, a sports forecasting company, did an analysis of the White Sox offense that included the 38-year-old former All-Star. AccuScore Analyst Stephen Oh ran thousands of simulations that suggested the White Sox's chances of making the post-season increased from 58.5% to 64% because of the boost his bat would give Ozzie Guillen's squad. Some people get star-struck by the names involve rather than the reality of the situation, players included, and fail to grasp the realities of the deal. "I just think there's a lot of added things he can bring," Nick Swisher, the Chicago White Sox now relocated centerfielder said. "I mean, I had posters of that guy on my wall growing up. So I think it's going to be an awesome thing for all of us."

Computer-generated odds and Nick Swisher's grade school poster collection aside, this seems like a strange trade for the South Siders. First, Griffey is not a centerfielder by any stretch of the imagination. The last time he roamed center was in 2006 where he ranked 31st among MLB centerfielders according to the Fielding Bible. In his 870.1 innings at the position he had 247 "expected outs" and converted only 229 of those into outs (-18). To give a frame of reference, Carlos Gomez, who is the current leader among Major League centerfielders according to the Fielding Bible, has had 291 "expected outs" and has actually made 305 outs - adding 14 extra outs with his range - in his 835.1 innings this year. As a right fielder, a significantly less demanding position then center, Griffey is currently ranking 30th. In his 755 inning this season he has had 164 "expected outs" and as converted only 156 (-8). Among qualified National League right fielders, Griffey is a distant last in revised zone rating at .826. His range factor of 1.94 is well below the National League average for right fielders of 2.16. This poses a serious defensive liability to a team like the White Sox that already has 71 errors on the season (second behind the leading Rangers) and a poor .981 fielding percentage (tied for second with the Tigers and behind the Rangers).

His defensive track record in recent memory proves that Griffey has been brought in as another offensive weapon. Which brings me to my second point: the White Sox problem is not offense. They are scoring 4.98 runs per game, third behind the Tigers and the Rangers (correlation?), and leading the American League in team home runs with 147. To a team that is already punishing the ball, Griffey is a marginal offensive addition. His 15 home runs appear impressive yet his isolated slugging average is at the lowest it has been in five years (.187), lower when he is away from the lefty friendly Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati. Admittedly, his peripherals do not indicate any decline as he encroaches on the Big 4-0 as his walk rate (16.9%) has been the best in years and his strikeout rate has declined (14.6%). Sure, Paul Konerko has been a poor version of a first baseman in 2008. His .214/.312/.349 batting line as a first baseman has been well below the league average of .263/.344/.428. Moving Nick Swisher from center to first to displace Konerko is an obvious upgrade - Swisher has been batting .230/.348/.404. A fact that seems evident to the most elementary of baseball statisticians is lost on a Major League manager. Ozzie Guillen does not view the shift of Swisher to first and Konerko to pine the same: ''People say, 'Put Konerko on the bench, do this with Konerko, do that with Konerko,'" Guillen said, "Who's going to play first? Swisher? Oh. Do me a favor, check the book first and check Swisher and Konerko's averages, and it's not that much different.'' Yes, the averages are somewhat comparable. Looking at the on-base percentages and slugging average, you see a completely different story. Konerko is carrying a .661 OPS while Swisher is sporting a .782 OPS.

Lastly, Williams addressed the wrong need. The pitching, while superficially good (one of the American League's better era's at 3.81), has been roughed up both in terms of performance and physically as well. After starting the season strong, the staff took a significant hit in July as in 24 games in the month they accrued 216 innings and left with a 5.04 era and a 13-11 record carried by the potent offense. Starter Jose Contreras has done his best Livan Hernandez impersonation since June, posting a 7.46 era in 44.2 innings of work and has allowed opponents to hit .340/393/.563 off of him in that span. Closer Bobby Jenks missed a portion of the month and has just returned. In 2008 Jenks has been fairly steady as a closer but has been less of a strikeout pitcher than previous seasons with a strikeout rate of 14% (compared to his 22% strikeout rate last year). The bullpen is without Scott Linebrink who had been the behind only closer Bobby Jenks and Octavio Dotel in use in high leverage situations (1.38 pLI) but just behind Jenks in the wins probability added (1.03 wpa). He is on the disabled list until August 6th at the earliest. Talks with Oakland for Huston Street never came to fruition and the rotation and bullpen must continue through the second half as is.

Even with these points in mind, general manager Kenny Williams is overwhelmingly optimistic. "Adding a player the caliber of Ken Griffey Jr. gives us a better chance to realize those goals. Griffey's addition gives Ozzie (Guillen) more flexibility. Ozzie has the opportunity to field his best team -– offensively and defensively -– on a day-to-day basis over the next two months, and this gives us the chance to keep some of our middle-of-the-order hitters fresh and producing down the stretch. I spoke with Ken, and he is excited to be coming to Chicago to try and help us reach the postseason." Williams told the media after Griffey agreed to wave his no trade clause. Obviously the mastermind behind the trade will defend his acquisition to the bitter end. And judging from the reasons above, it will be a bitter end for the White Sox in 2008.

To Hawk or not to Hawk?

There was a time at the beginning of the Millennium when Latroy Hawkins was a bullpen stalwart. After a disgusting 10-14 season as a starter in 1999 nearly ran him out of baseball, Hawkins began receiving his mail down the third base line in the Twins bullpen. It turned out to be a career saver. Between 2000 and 2003, Hawkins made 267 appearances in relief, tossing 296.6 innings and sported a 3.09 era. Hawkins struck out 18.8% of the 1,238 batters faced in that duration. While a shaky closer in 2001, Latroy did save 28 games in spite of a 5.96 era, but it was his stint as the right-handed set-up man for Eddie Guardado in 2002 and 2003 where he pitched 177.3 innings with a 22.2% strikeout rate and a minuscule 4.8% walk rate that guaranteed him a hefty raise as his contract with the Twins expired. Deciding that paying Hawkins and the recently free agented Everyday Eddie Guardado the market rate for a closer and premium set-up man was not within a mid-market budget, the Twins opted to use recently acquired Joe Nathan to finish games and inserted 25 year old Juan Rincon into the set-up role allowing Hawkins to persue other suitors.

One such suitor were the Chicago Cubs, just up Lake Michigan from his hometown of Gary, Indiana, who locked him to a two-year, $8-million dollar contract with a third year option. As the Cubs closer in his inital season under the new contract, Hawkins saved 25 game out of 34 opportunities (73.5% save rate) with a 2.63 era. In the final month of that season, Hawkins reassured the North Siders that he could still finish games as he threw 16.2 innings with 17 strikeouts, keeping opponents baffled as they hit just .197/.222/.328 off of him. Unfortunately for Latroy, the Cubs would only require a year and a half of that three year deal. After a particularly bad stretch in 2005 where in April and May he failed to secure 4 of 8 save opportunities and was knocked around by opponents (.250/.316/.444). Hawkins was run out of Chicago, shipped to San Francisco for Jerome Williams and David Aardsma, where he continued his Midwest performance in the Bay Area. Hawkins exercised his player option for the 2006 season, inciting the Giants to trade him across the country to Baltimore for Steve Kline. Once back in the American League Hawkins stabilized a bit, throwing 60.2 innings with a 4.48 era. His peripheral numbers plummeted though. In 2005 with the Cubs and the Giants Hawkins maintained a 17.4% strikeout rate. One year later in Baltimore his strikeout rate bottomed out at 10.3% - a significant decrease suggesting that he floated through the 2006 season on a wing and a prayer.

Desperate for bullpen assistance the Colorado Rockies signed Latroy prior to the 2007 season to a 1-year, $3.5-million dollar contract with a 2008 option. Hawkins responded by being a valuable piece of the National League champions' relief corp. He threw 55.2 innings with a 3.82 era. Once again his strikeout peripherals were low (12.8% k%) suggesting that he is nearly a rapid decline as he ages to the mid-30s, but a surprising spike in groundball rates (from 44% in 2006 to 63% in 2007) with one of the National League's best defense behind him (.700 DER, .989 fielding percentage) lead to a freakishly low .267 batting average on balls in play (.298 National League reliever babip average).

"I am not going to be a Rockie. It just didn't work out. I wanted to come back. I loved those guys. It's nothing but positive memories." Hawkins told the Denver Post when he opted to sign with the New York Yankees rather than Colorado. "We signed Hawkins to help us in the sixth and seventh inning, and to provide useful relief innings. He can take the ball and pitch a lot." Said Yankees General Manager Brian Cashman responding to how Latroy was going to be deployed in the Bronx. True to their word, the Yankees have limited Hawkins use to low leverage situation (0.93 pLI) in his 53 innings of work. Unlike his 2007 season in Denver, Hawkins could not produce the same groundball rate, dropping from 63% to 48%, and watched the average on balls in play increase (from .267 to .296).

	fb% | mph	crv% | mph	sld% | mph	chgn | mph	opp. avg	opp. slg	fip
2002 (Twins)	76% | x	8% | x	4% | x	5% | x	.217	.307	2.76
2003 (Twins)	70% | x	8% | x	2% | x	9% | x	.239	.322	2.38
2004 (Cubs)	75% | x	7% | x	8% | x	2% | x	.233	.395	3.54
2005 (Cubs/Giants)	76% | 93.6	1% | 77.4	14% | 86.6	5% | 83.3	.265	.420	4.93
2006 (Orioles)	75% | 94.0	8% | 81.3	12% | 87.4	2% | 84.9	.300	.428	3.86
2007 (Rockies)	69% | 93.5	6% | 79.0	14% | 87.1	10% | 83.8	.252	.393	4.77
2008 (Yankees)	62% | 92.5	4% | 79.9	20% | 86.9	11% | 84.4	.275	.386	4.11

As you can deduce from the pitch type usage chart above, Hawkins had a different approach when he was playing for the Twins and in his first season with the Cubs. He peppered the strike zone with an above-average fastball and interspersed the occasional curveball, slider and changeup. As he distanced himself from the Twins organization, Hawkins developed a reliance on a slider. His 2005 season when he started to favor that offspeed pitch was the same season that ran him out of the Windy City and wore out his welcome in the Golden Gate State. The following year at Camden, Latroy resurrected his curveball that he all but dropped in 2005 but still used the slider more so than the other breaking pitches as a result opponents average and slugging percentage increased once again. In 2007 at Coors Field Hawkins started to throttle down on his fastball usage and began implementing a changeup which is the possible explanation behind the increase in groundballs - batters were out on their front-foot as 31% of pitches thrown were off-speed. This season Hawkins eased up even more on his fastball as the velocity dropped an entire mile per hour on average while throwing the slider now 20% of the time. Interestingly enough, opponents are reaching base more frequently (possibly because of the decreased defense in New York) but are not hitting him as hard as his slugging percentage against is down as low as it is for the first time since leaving the Twin Cities. One of the biggest detrimental correlations between the added reliance on the slider and changeup is that he is susceptible to left-handed batters. This season against right-handed batters, Hawkins has been strictly a fastball (61%) and slider (27%) guy - limiting them to a .227/.266/.261 in 95 match-ups. The lefties are getting doses of the fastball (64%) but are getting the changeup (19%) over the slider (11%) which has led to left-handed hitters batting .338/.429/.554 in 77 match-ups. This has transformed him into a less valuable cousin of the Lefty-One-Out-Guy, a ROOGY. A small adjustment to his pitch repertoire could reap dividends for whatever team obtains him.

La Velle E Neal suggested that Hawkins under the guidance of Twins pitching coach Rick Anderson could have been the explanation why success has been at a premium outside of the Minnesota organization. True, working with Rick Anderson once again could give Hawkins the injection his career needs but Hawkins is far from the 8th inning guy they have been in need of. While with the Yankees he was used in low leverage situations, opting instead to use Kyle Farnsworth to bridge the game to Mariano Rivera. At best Hawkins would wind up as a facsimile to Jesse Crain or Matt Guerrier, with even fewer strikeouts. While his fastball is no longer as quick as it once was five years ago, it still has plenty of zip to be considered a hard ball. The secondary pitches are what have been leading to the high batting lines. At times Latroy Hawkins has had a career that has been lights out (2002-2004) but has also been as ineffective as an M. Night Shyamalan plot twist at other times (2005-2006) and then has had two in recent years that have been serviceable (2007-2008). In the midst of the pennant race, the Twins do not have the luxury to try to take on a project, especially if they assume he will be an 8th inning guy.