The Second Coming

In his first start back with the Minnesota Twins following an April demotion, Francisco Liriano set out to prove the he is indeed the pitcher reflective in his minor league numbers. Star Tribune's Jim Souhan recently penned a column speculating on the trade deadline hours after it past. Souhan bravely suggested that Liriano should have been the prime trade bait in the efforts to net a right-handed slugger: "Fans remember Liriano as unhittable and charming, and he has scythed through the International League this summer. Talk to someone other than a stat geek, though, and you'll hear that Liriano is facing mediocre competition, is throwing most of his fastballs at 91 mph, and will not be the dominant force fans remember, even if he stays healthy." Whether your a stat geek or curmudgeonly scout it is hard to deny that in the past three months Francisco Liriano has shown steady improvement. Unfortunately the only way to show it in writing is through the use of demon statistics: In 39 innings in May, Liriano walked 6.5% and struck out 17.6%. In 36.2 innings in June, he walked 5.2% and struck out 24.7%. July was by far his best of the year, walking 3.9% and striking out 32.8% in 34 innings. By all accounts, he was attacking the strike zone and winning the match-ups in front of him regardless if they were the 1998 Yankees on the best kind of steroids or a Walter Matthau coached gaggle of misfits.

"I've seen him a lot in the last couple months down in the Minor Leagues, and he goes out and pitches his heart out. He has been dominant down there. He's been striking people out when he needs to strike people out, getting ground balls when he needs to get ground balls. He's doing an excellent job. I hope to see when he comes back [Sunday] what he is going to do, because I know everybody is going to be happy here." said his Red Wings and now Twins teammate Randy Ruiz.

In Souhan's mind, the pathway to the postseason would have been to ship Liriano to Seattle for Adrian Beltre so that Beltre could hit 3-run home runs for the Twins only to have Livan Hernandez give up 6 runs thereby deleting Beltre's contributions.

Thankfully people smarter than Souhan are at the helm of the Twins.

Souhan's logic is flawed as one bat for two years in exchange for the valuable left-handed starting pitcher would have been a steep price for an organization to pay. However the basis for his for wanting to package Liriano is reasonable. The words "Tommy John recovery" makes people cringe - especially after his first introduction back into the Majors following his entire year off.

In his April 24th start against the Oakland A's, one that produced six earned runs in two-thirds of an inning of work, I charted his pitch location and types with the assistance of MLB's Pitchf/x system. The data showed that several problems persisted with the left-hander from Dominican Republic. First, the findings showed that Liriano had a significant decrease in his velocity, throwing his fastball in the 88-91 mph range (consistently under 90 mph in that game). Fangraph.com shows that he was throwing his fastball 94.7 mph in 2005 and 2006 while averaging just 90 in his three starts in 2008. Secondly, in addition to a decline in velocity that day, Liriano had as much control as a University of Florida frat boy on spring break: 48% of his pitches were outside the strike zone, just 4 of the 9 batters faced were met with a first pitch strike (two of which were gifts from swings on high fastballs). In his dominating 2006 season, 67% of his pitches were strikes. As opposed to 2006 when he was getting the first pitch strike 60% of the time, this season he began the count 0-1 only 45% of the time in 2008 - a 15% decrease in the amount of match-ups starting in the pitcher's favor. While it may appear that there is a negligible difference between 0-1 and 1-0, but American League batters are hitting just .263/.279/.355 after the count starts at 0-1 and hitting .280/.393/.451 when the count starts in their favor. Therefore on average there exists a greater than 10% increase in the opponent reaching base if the first pitch was a ball.

What contributed most to the six earned runs that day was the fact that when Liriano did locate the strike zone (52%), it was down the heart of the plate (20%) with the substandard fastball with little movement. On top of that his off-speed pitches were not able to masque the fastball. He threw his change-up as the set-up pitch that game and did not get chase swings from the very patient Oakland lineup. The slider, once a golden bullet in his arsonal, is now thrown at 79 mph down from the hard 87 mph that resembled a fastball coming out of his hand only to drop away from the left-handed swing and tie up a right-handed batter as it dove into their ankles. Now it lacked the sharp break and speed to make it effective. In that game he threw just one slider to Rajai Davis. It registered 81 mph on the radar gun.

In the post-game press conference after the Oakland game, manager Ron Gardenhire spoke to the media amidst all indication that Liriano had been given his last start in Minnesota in long time. "We've got some discussing to do right here," Gardenhire said. "We've seen him and know where we are at with him. That's very important. So the comeback continues. No one said it was going to be easy, and it's not an easy thing when you sit out that long. We believe this young man is going to be a very, very good pitcher for us. It's going to take a lot of work, and we'll see where we are at over the next few days and make some decisions on what to do next."

After 10.3 innings of work with a 11.32 era and 13 walks to 7 strikeouts, the Twins gave Francisco Liriano the additional time to regain his feel for the mound. Liriano responded well to the demotion. It was his last ten starts with the Red Wings where Liriano went 9-0 with a 2.51 era. Most encouraging was his 73 strikeouts and 9 walks in 64.2 innings of work which prompted a recall (after his agent filing charges that the organization was intentionally holding him back first).

Nearly three plus months and a time zone to the east later, Liriano found himself once on the mound in a Twins uniform, in control of a day game. In a broad stroke, the results (6 innings, 3 hits, 3 walks, 5 strikeouts and no runs) show that improvement was made while in Rochester. The MLB Pitchf/x data reflects the same: His fastball, one that he threw 62 times, was constantly in the 90-92 mph range indicating that he has gained 2 to 3 mph in between major league starts. He threw the slider 19 times with greater velocity, between 81-83 mph - another sign that his arm is closer to recovery from the Tommy John - plus he was able to incite missed swing four times and only had one slider put into play (Jamey Carroll put a grounder into play that Brendan Harris overthrew Nick Punto on). This progress suggests that he is closing the gap between what he was and what he currently is. There are also plenty of red flags amid the data. Just 8 of his 24 match-ups began with a first pitch strike, leading to more 1-0 counts. In addition to that, he was out of the strike zone (66%) even more than his April 24th game (48%). These kind of numbers often spell large quantities of runs for opponents as Liriano was not in complete command of his game. "Triple-A baseball's different than here," Gardenhire said. "There's a few veteran hitters, but a lot of guys swing, swing, swing. As we go along, we're going to see some veteran teams that don't swing. They're going to take pitches, and those are going to be challenges for him to throw more pitches over the plate."

But what differed most between the August 3rd Liriano and the April 24th Liriano was where he was locating his pitches. Against Oakland, Liriano elevated too many pitches as 20% thrown were in the top-half of the strike zone or higher. That kind of placement of a 89 mph fastball typically end up as line drives or flyballs. On Sunday, Liriano threw just 9% of his pitches in the top half of the strike zone, tossing 55% in the lower half of the strike zone, a region more prone to inducing groundballs. Finding the zone and keeping it low will be the recipe for success for Liriano.

Did Chicago Really Improve?

Following Sox general manger Kenny Williams's exchange of pitcher Nick Masset and second baseman Danny Richar for Cincinnati's right fielder, the people at AccuScore, a sports forecasting company, did an analysis of the White Sox offense that included the 38-year-old former All-Star. AccuScore Analyst Stephen Oh ran thousands of simulations that suggested the White Sox's chances of making the post-season increased from 58.5% to 64% because of the boost his bat would give Ozzie Guillen's squad. Some people get star-struck by the names involve rather than the reality of the situation, players included, and fail to grasp the realities of the deal. "I just think there's a lot of added things he can bring," Nick Swisher, the Chicago White Sox now relocated centerfielder said. "I mean, I had posters of that guy on my wall growing up. So I think it's going to be an awesome thing for all of us."

Computer-generated odds and Nick Swisher's grade school poster collection aside, this seems like a strange trade for the South Siders. First, Griffey is not a centerfielder by any stretch of the imagination. The last time he roamed center was in 2006 where he ranked 31st among MLB centerfielders according to the Fielding Bible. In his 870.1 innings at the position he had 247 "expected outs" and converted only 229 of those into outs (-18). To give a frame of reference, Carlos Gomez, who is the current leader among Major League centerfielders according to the Fielding Bible, has had 291 "expected outs" and has actually made 305 outs - adding 14 extra outs with his range - in his 835.1 innings this year. As a right fielder, a significantly less demanding position then center, Griffey is currently ranking 30th. In his 755 inning this season he has had 164 "expected outs" and as converted only 156 (-8). Among qualified National League right fielders, Griffey is a distant last in revised zone rating at .826. His range factor of 1.94 is well below the National League average for right fielders of 2.16. This poses a serious defensive liability to a team like the White Sox that already has 71 errors on the season (second behind the leading Rangers) and a poor .981 fielding percentage (tied for second with the Tigers and behind the Rangers).

His defensive track record in recent memory proves that Griffey has been brought in as another offensive weapon. Which brings me to my second point: the White Sox problem is not offense. They are scoring 4.98 runs per game, third behind the Tigers and the Rangers (correlation?), and leading the American League in team home runs with 147. To a team that is already punishing the ball, Griffey is a marginal offensive addition. His 15 home runs appear impressive yet his isolated slugging average is at the lowest it has been in five years (.187), lower when he is away from the lefty friendly Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati. Admittedly, his peripherals do not indicate any decline as he encroaches on the Big 4-0 as his walk rate (16.9%) has been the best in years and his strikeout rate has declined (14.6%). Sure, Paul Konerko has been a poor version of a first baseman in 2008. His .214/.312/.349 batting line as a first baseman has been well below the league average of .263/.344/.428. Moving Nick Swisher from center to first to displace Konerko is an obvious upgrade - Swisher has been batting .230/.348/.404. A fact that seems evident to the most elementary of baseball statisticians is lost on a Major League manager. Ozzie Guillen does not view the shift of Swisher to first and Konerko to pine the same: ''People say, 'Put Konerko on the bench, do this with Konerko, do that with Konerko,'" Guillen said, "Who's going to play first? Swisher? Oh. Do me a favor, check the book first and check Swisher and Konerko's averages, and it's not that much different.'' Yes, the averages are somewhat comparable. Looking at the on-base percentages and slugging average, you see a completely different story. Konerko is carrying a .661 OPS while Swisher is sporting a .782 OPS.

Lastly, Williams addressed the wrong need. The pitching, while superficially good (one of the American League's better era's at 3.81), has been roughed up both in terms of performance and physically as well. After starting the season strong, the staff took a significant hit in July as in 24 games in the month they accrued 216 innings and left with a 5.04 era and a 13-11 record carried by the potent offense. Starter Jose Contreras has done his best Livan Hernandez impersonation since June, posting a 7.46 era in 44.2 innings of work and has allowed opponents to hit .340/393/.563 off of him in that span. Closer Bobby Jenks missed a portion of the month and has just returned. In 2008 Jenks has been fairly steady as a closer but has been less of a strikeout pitcher than previous seasons with a strikeout rate of 14% (compared to his 22% strikeout rate last year). The bullpen is without Scott Linebrink who had been the behind only closer Bobby Jenks and Octavio Dotel in use in high leverage situations (1.38 pLI) but just behind Jenks in the wins probability added (1.03 wpa). He is on the disabled list until August 6th at the earliest. Talks with Oakland for Huston Street never came to fruition and the rotation and bullpen must continue through the second half as is.

Even with these points in mind, general manager Kenny Williams is overwhelmingly optimistic. "Adding a player the caliber of Ken Griffey Jr. gives us a better chance to realize those goals. Griffey's addition gives Ozzie (Guillen) more flexibility. Ozzie has the opportunity to field his best team -– offensively and defensively -– on a day-to-day basis over the next two months, and this gives us the chance to keep some of our middle-of-the-order hitters fresh and producing down the stretch. I spoke with Ken, and he is excited to be coming to Chicago to try and help us reach the postseason." Williams told the media after Griffey agreed to wave his no trade clause. Obviously the mastermind behind the trade will defend his acquisition to the bitter end. And judging from the reasons above, it will be a bitter end for the White Sox in 2008.

To Hawk or not to Hawk?

There was a time at the beginning of the Millennium when Latroy Hawkins was a bullpen stalwart. After a disgusting 10-14 season as a starter in 1999 nearly ran him out of baseball, Hawkins began receiving his mail down the third base line in the Twins bullpen. It turned out to be a career saver. Between 2000 and 2003, Hawkins made 267 appearances in relief, tossing 296.6 innings and sported a 3.09 era. Hawkins struck out 18.8% of the 1,238 batters faced in that duration. While a shaky closer in 2001, Latroy did save 28 games in spite of a 5.96 era, but it was his stint as the right-handed set-up man for Eddie Guardado in 2002 and 2003 where he pitched 177.3 innings with a 22.2% strikeout rate and a minuscule 4.8% walk rate that guaranteed him a hefty raise as his contract with the Twins expired. Deciding that paying Hawkins and the recently free agented Everyday Eddie Guardado the market rate for a closer and premium set-up man was not within a mid-market budget, the Twins opted to use recently acquired Joe Nathan to finish games and inserted 25 year old Juan Rincon into the set-up role allowing Hawkins to persue other suitors.

One such suitor were the Chicago Cubs, just up Lake Michigan from his hometown of Gary, Indiana, who locked him to a two-year, $8-million dollar contract with a third year option. As the Cubs closer in his inital season under the new contract, Hawkins saved 25 game out of 34 opportunities (73.5% save rate) with a 2.63 era. In the final month of that season, Hawkins reassured the North Siders that he could still finish games as he threw 16.2 innings with 17 strikeouts, keeping opponents baffled as they hit just .197/.222/.328 off of him. Unfortunately for Latroy, the Cubs would only require a year and a half of that three year deal. After a particularly bad stretch in 2005 where in April and May he failed to secure 4 of 8 save opportunities and was knocked around by opponents (.250/.316/.444). Hawkins was run out of Chicago, shipped to San Francisco for Jerome Williams and David Aardsma, where he continued his Midwest performance in the Bay Area. Hawkins exercised his player option for the 2006 season, inciting the Giants to trade him across the country to Baltimore for Steve Kline. Once back in the American League Hawkins stabilized a bit, throwing 60.2 innings with a 4.48 era. His peripheral numbers plummeted though. In 2005 with the Cubs and the Giants Hawkins maintained a 17.4% strikeout rate. One year later in Baltimore his strikeout rate bottomed out at 10.3% - a significant decrease suggesting that he floated through the 2006 season on a wing and a prayer.

Desperate for bullpen assistance the Colorado Rockies signed Latroy prior to the 2007 season to a 1-year, $3.5-million dollar contract with a 2008 option. Hawkins responded by being a valuable piece of the National League champions' relief corp. He threw 55.2 innings with a 3.82 era. Once again his strikeout peripherals were low (12.8% k%) suggesting that he is nearly a rapid decline as he ages to the mid-30s, but a surprising spike in groundball rates (from 44% in 2006 to 63% in 2007) with one of the National League's best defense behind him (.700 DER, .989 fielding percentage) lead to a freakishly low .267 batting average on balls in play (.298 National League reliever babip average).

"I am not going to be a Rockie. It just didn't work out. I wanted to come back. I loved those guys. It's nothing but positive memories." Hawkins told the Denver Post when he opted to sign with the New York Yankees rather than Colorado. "We signed Hawkins to help us in the sixth and seventh inning, and to provide useful relief innings. He can take the ball and pitch a lot." Said Yankees General Manager Brian Cashman responding to how Latroy was going to be deployed in the Bronx. True to their word, the Yankees have limited Hawkins use to low leverage situation (0.93 pLI) in his 53 innings of work. Unlike his 2007 season in Denver, Hawkins could not produce the same groundball rate, dropping from 63% to 48%, and watched the average on balls in play increase (from .267 to .296).

	fb% | mph	crv% | mph	sld% | mph	chgn | mph	opp. avg	opp. slg	fip
2002 (Twins)	76% | x	8% | x	4% | x	5% | x	.217	.307	2.76
2003 (Twins)	70% | x	8% | x	2% | x	9% | x	.239	.322	2.38
2004 (Cubs)	75% | x	7% | x	8% | x	2% | x	.233	.395	3.54
2005 (Cubs/Giants)	76% | 93.6	1% | 77.4	14% | 86.6	5% | 83.3	.265	.420	4.93
2006 (Orioles)	75% | 94.0	8% | 81.3	12% | 87.4	2% | 84.9	.300	.428	3.86
2007 (Rockies)	69% | 93.5	6% | 79.0	14% | 87.1	10% | 83.8	.252	.393	4.77
2008 (Yankees)	62% | 92.5	4% | 79.9	20% | 86.9	11% | 84.4	.275	.386	4.11

As you can deduce from the pitch type usage chart above, Hawkins had a different approach when he was playing for the Twins and in his first season with the Cubs. He peppered the strike zone with an above-average fastball and interspersed the occasional curveball, slider and changeup. As he distanced himself from the Twins organization, Hawkins developed a reliance on a slider. His 2005 season when he started to favor that offspeed pitch was the same season that ran him out of the Windy City and wore out his welcome in the Golden Gate State. The following year at Camden, Latroy resurrected his curveball that he all but dropped in 2005 but still used the slider more so than the other breaking pitches as a result opponents average and slugging percentage increased once again. In 2007 at Coors Field Hawkins started to throttle down on his fastball usage and began implementing a changeup which is the possible explanation behind the increase in groundballs - batters were out on their front-foot as 31% of pitches thrown were off-speed. This season Hawkins eased up even more on his fastball as the velocity dropped an entire mile per hour on average while throwing the slider now 20% of the time. Interestingly enough, opponents are reaching base more frequently (possibly because of the decreased defense in New York) but are not hitting him as hard as his slugging percentage against is down as low as it is for the first time since leaving the Twin Cities. One of the biggest detrimental correlations between the added reliance on the slider and changeup is that he is susceptible to left-handed batters. This season against right-handed batters, Hawkins has been strictly a fastball (61%) and slider (27%) guy - limiting them to a .227/.266/.261 in 95 match-ups. The lefties are getting doses of the fastball (64%) but are getting the changeup (19%) over the slider (11%) which has led to left-handed hitters batting .338/.429/.554 in 77 match-ups. This has transformed him into a less valuable cousin of the Lefty-One-Out-Guy, a ROOGY. A small adjustment to his pitch repertoire could reap dividends for whatever team obtains him.

La Velle E Neal suggested that Hawkins under the guidance of Twins pitching coach Rick Anderson could have been the explanation why success has been at a premium outside of the Minnesota organization. True, working with Rick Anderson once again could give Hawkins the injection his career needs but Hawkins is far from the 8th inning guy they have been in need of. While with the Yankees he was used in low leverage situations, opting instead to use Kyle Farnsworth to bridge the game to Mariano Rivera. At best Hawkins would wind up as a facsimile to Jesse Crain or Matt Guerrier, with even fewer strikeouts. While his fastball is no longer as quick as it once was five years ago, it still has plenty of zip to be considered a hard ball. The secondary pitches are what have been leading to the high batting lines. At times Latroy Hawkins has had a career that has been lights out (2002-2004) but has also been as ineffective as an M. Night Shyamalan plot twist at other times (2005-2006) and then has had two in recent years that have been serviceable (2007-2008). In the midst of the pennant race, the Twins do not have the luxury to try to take on a project, especially if they assume he will be an 8th inning guy.

Livan Hernandez: Grand Marshall of the Hit Parade.

Livan Hernandez's assault on the most hits allowed in a season continued on Friday in Cleveland as five of the first seven Indians batters reached base. Even the outs that inning were punished as a deep fly ball by Ben Francisco resulted in the maiming of the best defensive centerfielder in the Majors and then nearly injuring Gomez's replacement, Denard Span, on a flyball that followed nearly the identical flightpath as Francisco's off of the bat of catcher Kelly Shoppach. After a second inning solo home run by Franklin Gutierrez, Hernandez regained his composure, keeping the Indians off-balanced and off the scoreboard thanks to a mixture of velocity and well-timed double play balls. Six hits came in the first two innings, six more came in the last six innings.

Still when the game concluded, a dozen more hits were added to his season total, bringing it to a lofty 190. This is well-short of the all-time record set by Philadelphia's Jack Coleman (772) in 1883 and the number doesn't even encroach on the modern record of 336 set by Mickey Lolich in 1971 which pitching for Detroit but Tommy John's 287 hits allowed while with the California Angels in 1983 is a more likely achievable goal for Hernandez. Records aside, the real problem for the Twins and Hernandez persists: his inability to pitch away from the Dome. He is as bad on tour as Chumbawumba.

home	innings	era	avg	obp	slg	games started	runs allowed	avg per start
Baker	41.2	2.38	.218	.238	.333	7	11	1.5
Blackburn	56.2	2.70	.273	.312	.441	9	23	2.5
Hernandez	78.1	3.91	.304	.342	.463	12	40	3.3
Perkins	53.2	4.02	.301	.341	.461	9	26	2.8
Slowey	36	4.00	.230	.266	.444	6	16	2.6
al average	x	3.82	.252	.320	.390	x	x	x

away	innings	era	avg	obp	slg	games started	runs allowed	avg per start
Baker	49.2	4.01	.259	.304	.446	8	22	2.7
Blackburn	63.1	4.83	.306	.335	.434	11	39	3.5
Hernandez	57.1	7.22	.375	.387	.543	10	48	4.8
Perkins	36.2	4.17	.284	.335	.447	6	17	2.8
Slowey	51.2	4.70	.271	.303	.472	9	27	3.0
al average	x	4.50	.269	.338	.419	x	x	x

home-away difference	runs allowed diff.
Baker	-1.2
Blackburn	-1.0
Hernandez	-1.5
Perkins	0
Slowey	-0.4

Of the staff, Hernandez has the most pronounced Home/Away split. At the Dome Hernandez is allowing 3.3 runs per start while giving 4.8 runs per start outside. Opponents are hitting .375/.387/.543 against Hernandez outstate, well above the league average of .269/.338/.419. Inside the Dome his opponents have hit .304/.341/.461 also above the American League average. One of the biggest reasons that he has enjoyed an 8-1 record at home is that the offense has been able to provide an average of 5.1 runs per game locally but has not been able to match the runs given up by Hernandez, scoring only 4.5 runs on the road, resulting in his 2-6 record. In the remaining 60 game, the Twins play 32 of those on the road, presenting a considerable problem for the Twins because Livan Hernandez will be starting a number of those games.

With a 3.5 game deficient, the Twins need to become as efficient as possible. Eliminating Hernandez's road starts would be a good start. There has been no trade interest in him, the front office is not interested in eating the remainder of his $5-million dollar contract and Boof Bonser is already claiming the bullpen's failed starter spot, so the Twins have to get creative with his deployment. Across the state line to the east, the Milwaukee Brewers have found an interesting solution to their fifth starter spot. Brewers manager Ned Yost has divided the 5th starter duties between Dave Bush and Seth McClung, dishing out the home starts to Bush (4-2, 2.49 era, .208/.246/.372 at Miller Park) and the road starts to McClung (1-1, 3.32 era, .239/.316/.361 away from Miller Park). If Bush would have the next start, McClung would be religated to the bullpen as the long relief help and vice versa. In theory, this maximizes the Brewers chances of winning by playing to the best strengths. In the short time it has been implemented, the experiment as seemingly worked. On July 21st, McClung threw 5 innings, giving up only 2 runs and leaving with a one-run lead (the Brewer bullpen gave up the tying run in the 9th but the team was able to tack on 3 more in the top of the 10th). With the fifth spot coming up tonight, Dave Bush will face the Houston Astros at home.

The Twins could replicate the Brewers by pairing Hernandez with another starter to tackle the away games. The most likely candidate to couple with Hernandez on the road is Glen Perkins. Admittedly, Perkins has had success at home, more so than Hernandez, though they have almost identical opponents' batting lines. Hernandez's opponents are hitting .304/.342/.463 at the Dome while Perkins's opponents are hitting .301/.341/.461. But Perkins is the second best Twins starter on the road, giving up only 2.8 runs per start with a 4.17 era. Perkins is an ideal candidate based not only on his road success but because of the amount of innings he is currently accumulating. So far in 2008, Perkins has pitched 123 innings, 12 fewer than the most he has thrown in his professional career. Using him even 10th day (with relief work in between starts) would keep him fresh. The next step to making this a reality would be to waive Brian Bass, with the hopes that he would pass through and be reassigned to Rochester, freeing up the space for a recall of Francisco Liriano to take Perkins's former spot in the rotation.

The Twins are far from experimental when it comes to managerial decisions. The relief ace is sequestered in the bullpen until a save situation only. The idea of a implementing a sixth starter to keep pitchers like Nick Blackburn, who hasn't thrown more than 152 innings in a given season, or Glen Perkins strong as the season progresses was dismissed by Ron Gardenhire. So the option of creating a platoon for the fifth spot in the rotation is a stretch. A team like the Twins who have a small margin of error needs to create an advantage wherever possible.

Notebook Dump (07.24.08)

Game: Twinks 1, Yankees 5

Box Score

Record: 55-46, 2nd place, 2.5 games back

Streak: 4 losses

The quote: “Funny things happen when we come to New York. I guess what we get to look forward to is a new stadium. Maybe we’ll do better at the new stadium. Not very much fun here today.” - Ron Gardenhire.

The Inning: Certainly Alexi Casilla has been one of the better additions to the ballclub since his recall earlier in the season, igniting an offense who would not have a baserunner for Joe Mauer had Casilla not been placed behind Carlos Gomez who has a phobia of being on-base recently. However his lackadaisical play in the field is detracting from the team and gave the Yankees, who are averaging 4.7 runs per game, an extra outs will come back to bite you in the ass.

Casilla learned this the hard way in the bottom of the 5th inning. Both Robinson Cano (the second-half hero) and Melky Cabrera singled up the middle out of Glen Perkins with one-out. Perkins threw an 88 mph fastball under the strike zone to Yankees catcher Jose Molina who bounced to Brendan Harris at third. Harris pivoted to Casilla, hoping to start what should have been an inning-ending double play, only Casilla ate the ball. "There are scoreboards everywhere in this game," Gardenhire said, "It's inexcusable. He knows that. He feels terrible. You think about that before. You look around. It's a routine double play. It's as routine as you can get it."

This brought up Jason Christian, the Yankees outfielder who had played in nine games at the major league level to this point in his career. In 1,982 minor league plate appearances, Christian was batting .287/.349/.423 - a very respectable line. Perkins went to bust the righty inside, the first pitch was too far in and was called a ball. The second one was too fat, barely inside at 88 mph. Christian turned on it and pulled it down the left field line. Cano scampered home from third and Molina, the baserunner that shouldn't be, chugged all the way from first to score as well. The two runs in the 5th were more than enough for Mike Mussina who was dissecting the Twins line-up and received crucial doubleplays from Nick Punto and Denard Span.

The Links:

* Kevin Slowey has been an object of bewilderment to me this season. Five outings ago, Slowey worked over the Padres line-up to the tune of six innings, seven strike outs and just four hits (Game Score 71). For an encore he subdued Milwaukee for a complete game, striking out eight (Game Score 89) however since then Slowey has seemed to go in the opposite direction in his last three starts. Over that period in games against Cleveland, Detroit and most recently the Yankees, Slowey failed to get past the sixth inning, walked six and struck out ten. Opponents hit .306/.368/.548 in that duration (.243/.269/.441 every other game), averaging a Game Score of 36 per start. Slowey has been slowed by a fingernail infection and had a bicep injury in spring training. There is no word on how this is effecting his performance but I would monitor how his next scheduled start goes before suggesting that there may be something to the injuries.

* Rotowire's Dave Regan wrote up a list of the top fifteen could be ready pitching prospects looking for a September call-up. Number nine on the list is Minnesota's Kevin Mulvey. Regan writes: "Included in the Johan Santana deal, Mulvey has been pretty good (not dominant) for the Twins in Triple-A this season. A 3.97 ERA and 7.4 K/9 won't wow anyone, but Mulvey is a polished college pitcher with 19 Triple-A starts under his belt now, so he's going to get a look at some point. Francisco Liriano is next up to get the call to Minnesota, but Livan Hernandez is always a good candidate to give up another rotation spot." Mulvey has not garnered that much attention this season, mostly because of his pedestrian 3-8 record, but his strikeout rate at 18.7% (17.8% on his career) is a fairly impressive total and as some one who throws strikes Mulvey might be able to benefit from some upgraded defense as the Red Wings have one of the worst fielding percentages and defensive effciency ratio. Look for Kevin Mulvey to be a candidate if anyone else has injuries following Liriano's recall.

* Jeff Pearlman recently followed up with Lamb when the Twins were in Boston, noting that Lamb's career soured from his days in 2000 when he was one of the Rangers' rising stars, and penned a piece that made Lamb come off as beaten. At thirty-two and currently hitting .229/.264/.304 with just the one home run coming in Detroit on May 23rd, we could very well be witnessing the swan-song of Mike Lamb. True, the Twins are still due $3 million to him for 2009 but the team has found that Brian Buscher and Brendan Harris make a very serviceable platoon at third while they also have Matt Macri available in Rochester and Matt Tolbert sizing up a return from the disabled list. Lamb certainly could become the guy squeezed out. But it looks like it won't be requesting a trade: "I'm not going to make any demands, I'm not going to request anything. It's up to them." Lamb told the Pioneer Press, "I don't know what they have in mind for me, or for the future. I'm just trying to be ready to play, one way or the other."

* If the Twins are looking for some pop to help out the line-up against left-handed pitching, the team may have to look mo further than in Rochester for the short-term solution. Randy Ruiz, the 30-year-old minor league free agent, has been tearing the cover off the ball in the International League as of late. After a slow start to the season, Ruiz is now hitting .309/.357/.504 with 14 home runs thanks to a 24-game hitting streak. In 107 at-bats against the southpaws, Ruiz is hitting .327/.397/.514. According to MinorLeagueSplits.com's Major League Equivalency Calculator, a program that converts what the numbers from one league would project to in another (i.e. how Eastern League performance would equate to Pacific Coast League, etc), it finds that Ruiz's International League line against lefties would equate to a .281/.343/.429 batting line against Major League pitching. This, of course, is substantially better then that of Craig Monroe, who in 77 at-bats against lefties this season is hitting .185/.221/.221. It would also be better than the rest of the right-handed batters in the line-up as well who are hitting .260/.304/.363. Ruiz would be limited to DH as his mobility is this just slightly better than brutal.

* If you unfamilar with Inside Edge Scouting Services, I'd recommend that you take a look. Great visual charts.