Minnesota Draft Revisited: Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda (Tim Belcher edition).

(You can located part one here.)

After rifling through all of the amateur drafts records the past week, I was struck by how different the Twins organization may have been had several players over the years been enticed to sign. To be sure, playing the 'What If' game is like attending a strip club: it is fun envisioning the titillating possibilities but at the end of the day you are still going home to your girlfriend or wife (for better or worse). Needless to say the ability to alter the past is reserved for the likes of Scott Bakula through his quantum leaps, but, like the strip club in the aforementioned analogy, it doesn't hurt to look.

1983. r1.1) Tim Belcher

The Twins chose Tim Belcher with their first overall pick in 1983. He refused to sign, pointing to the previous two seasons in which the Twins finished 60-102 in 1982 and 41-68 in the strike-shortened 1981 season, and was highly guarded by a bulldog of an legal advisor named Scott Boras. He didn't believe Minnesota was looking to field a winning team (which came to fruition as 1984's 81-81 record was the only season the Twins did not finish below .500) nor were they willing to pay the market rate for a 1st overall pick. The Twins felt that they could offer Belcher, a junior at the NAIA Mount Vernon Nazarene in Ohio, a low-ball bonus of $80,000 ($20,000 less than Rick Monday received in 1965). Negotiations were at a going no where and Calvin Griffith's front office went into full throttle p.r. mode, attempting to avoid the embarrassment of losing the nation's 1st overall pick.

Belcher's (ahem) legal advisor, then just a "baseball counsellor" for a law firm and not the super-agent of today, told Belcher to returned to college for one more season. Re-entering the pool in the second-phase of the draft, the New York Yankees selected him with the 1st overall pick in the 1984 supplemental draft and offered $120,000. Belcher quickly signed.

"I was close to signing with Minnesota but close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades,'' Belcher told the media in 1984 at a press conference at Yankee Stadium. ''I don't really want to get into it; I'm a Yankee now. But eventually hard feelings did develop.''

Belcher would not make it to the Bronx as the Oakland Athletics picked him six days after he signed with New York on February 8th, 1984 as their Free Agent compensation. New York, along with just about every other general manager, protested the draft, which was redacted shortly there after, but Belcher was gone and reporting to Oakland in the spring.

"It feels great to be with someone,'' Belcher told the Ny Times. ''I would have come earlier, but I wanted to clear my mind out and make sure everything was together.''

The transactions did not end there for Belcher. Oakland sent him to Los Angeles as the player to be named later in the Rick Honeycutt deal. In 1988, Belcher became one of the best rookie pitchers, after starting the season the Los Angeles's bullpen, he finished 12-6 with 152 strikeouts in 179.7 innings and an era+ of 115. At points during the season he was virtually unhittable, striking out 21.1% of the batters faced and only issuing walks to 7.0% of them. Following his August 26th start, he had rattled off seven consecutive wins, reminiscent of Fernando-mania that swept LA in 1981.

For Dodgers he won one World Series start against the Athletics and two in the League Championship Series. The Sporting News named him the best rookie pitcher of the year as he finished third in the Rookie of the Year voting.

In the American League, the Twins had just wrapped up 1987 with the first World Series (and championship title in any sport) in Minnesota history. Subsequently, in 1988 with most of the offensive cornerstone players returning. In fact the majority of the same players that had contributed so much in 1987 were having career years:

- 28-year-old centerfielder Kirby Puckett, who had perhaps the best year of his Hall of Fame career, finished with career highs in hits (234), rbis (121), batting average (.356) and slugging (.545). The one black eye on an otherwise spectacular season was his baserunning: Kirby tried to steal 13 times and was safe on 6 occasions, ultimately costing the Twins potential runs.

- 29-year-old third baseman Gary Geatti had a career year in batting average (.301), slugging (.551) and his ops of .901 was the 8th best in the American League - earning him his first of two All-Star appearances.

-28-year-old first basemen Kent Hrbek had a career high in batting average (.312) and produced his highest ops+ (149). Oddly enough, in all of the improved offensive from the prior year, Hrbek actually had his least amount of rbis (76) since coming into the league in 1982.

Even with the offensive upgrade, the Twins lost 27 total runs from 1987 (786) to 1988 (759). Some point to the loss of Tom Brunansky, who was traded early in the season to St Louis in exchange for Tommy Herr, hurt the dynamic. In Brunansky's stead, Tom Kelly used Randy Bush (the best pinch hitter ever) and John Moses who ultimately could not replicate Bruno's slugging.

Unfortunately, the Twins had only two proven pitchers in the rotation, Blyleven and Viola, who carried them through the season and the series. They were once again deficient in the starting rotation Not satisfied with starts given to the aging Joe Niekro and Steve Carlton - a combined 84 years old - in 1987, the Twins turned to 24-year-old Allan Anderson, a left-hander who had spent the previous two seasons shuttling back and forth from Minneapolis to Portland, to become a member of the starting rotation in addition to recent free agent signing Charlie Lea, returning pitcher (or liability) Les Straker, and Fred Toliver. The 1988 rotation had as many question marks as it did in 1987. The results in 1988:

- Lea, just one of two major league pitchers born in France, finished 23 starts with a 7-7 record and an era+ of 85 in what would be his final major league season.

- Straker started 14 games and managed a 2-5 record with an era+ of 103. Straker's season is another example of why not to judge a pitcher by his era. Though his 3.92 era appears good, in 82.7 innings pitcher, Straker only struck out 23 (6.7% k%) and walked 25 (7.3% bb%).

- Blyleven regressed significantly from a pitcher who in 1987 finished 15-12 with an era+ of 115 to a 37-year-old with a 10-17 record and an era+ of 75. Also led the AL in losses and earned runs allowed.

- Viola, on the other hand, improved from a 17-10 with an era+ 159 to a 24-4 pitcher in 1988 with an era+ of 153 and won the AL Cy Young award. His strikeouts decline from 18.9% k% in 1987 to 18.7% in 1988 but his command was outstanding as he improved his walk rate from 6.3% bb% to 5.2% bb%.

- Anderson, though, was the biggest surprise of them all who made 30 starts, threw 202.3 innings and finished with the lead league in era (2.45) and walks/9 inn (1.65) and compiled a 16-9 record.

With Viola and Anderson having career years and an entire pitching staff that cut the opposition's run production down by 134 from the previous season, it was little wonder that the defending champs had improved their record by six wins (from 85 to 91). The problem was that Oakland was busy rattling off 104 wins to Minnesota's 91 and handily won the AL West. The Twins finished the season 5-8 versus Oakland. Two of those losses were contributed by Les Straker and two by Fred Toliver, both of whom are excellent candidates to have been replaced by a quality starter. A quality starter such as Tim Belcher, who finished 12-6 with Los Angeles and two post-season victories, could have easily been the elusive 4th starter the Twins were searching for. Instead of discussions of the first repeat championship team in Minnesota since the Lakers left, talks turned to rebuilding in 1989 where the Twins purged Blyleven, Herr and Viola.

For the rest of his career Belcher enjoyed moderate success. Between 1989 and 1991 Belcher had several good seasons (even receiving Cy Young votes in 1989) then spent 1992 through 1995 shifting teams (Cincinnati, Chicago White Sox, Seattle and Detroit). After signing with the Kansas City Royals, Belcher had two more good seasons left in him in 1996 and 1998 where he finished with an era+ of 127 and 111 respectively.

Oh, and he might be the only pitcher to have been the recipient of a roundhouse kick thanks to Chan Ho Park.

(For more information on the Twins' 1988 season visit Coffeyville Whirlwind).

Minnesota Draft Revisited: Woulda, Coulda, Shoulda (offensive edition).

After rifling through all of the amateur drafts records the past week, I was struck by how different the Twins organization may have been had several players over the years been enticed to sign. To be sure, playing the 'What If' game is like attending a strip club: it is fun envisioning the titillating possibilities but at the end of the day you are still going home to your girlfriend or wife (for better or worse). Needless to say the ability to alter the past is reserved for the likes of Scott Bakula through his quantum leaps, but, like the strip club in the aforementioned analogy, it doesn't hurt to look.

catchers

1993. r1.21) Jason Varitek

It is common Twins lore of how in 1993 the Twins failed to coerce Jason Varitek from Georgia Tech as the 21st pick overall (one pick prior, the Twins selected Pine Bluff, Arkansas native Torii Hunter). Instead, Varitek went back to college where he was selected as the 14th overall pick by the Mariners the following draft year.

Between the 1993 draft and 1997 the Twins had to use Matt Walbeck, Derek Parks and Matt Merullo. If one were to consider five years as sufficient development time, giving Varitek ample preparation for the big leagues, Veritek would have reached the majors in 1998 or 1999 (Boston brought him up in 1997). In 1997 the Twins had agreed to sign 35-year-old New Ulm native Terry Steinbach to a two-year, $5.7 million dollar contract. In 1996, Steinbach had a career year belting 35 home runs (in which his previous high was 16 in 1987) and finished with a .272/.342/.529 line. Meanwhile, the Twins relied on the 30-year-old Greg Myers - who hit 6 home runs and .286/.320/.426 in 326 at-bats.

Dissatisifed with the results, the free agent Steinbach appealed to the Minnesota front office who had just lost Kirby Puckett and had been offensively deficient in the catcher position since Brian Harper in 1993. Steinbach failed to repeat his previous production. A pessimist might point towards the fact that Oakland has since been labeled a hot-bed of performance enhancing drugs and that both Mark McGwire and Jason Giambi, two players allegedly tied to PEDs, were on the roster. A 35-year-old player typically doesn't have that kind of offensive outburst. Regardless, the Twins inked Steinbach to a two-year deal.

As Steinbach was re-acclimating himself to the Midwest in 1998, Jason Varitak was introducing himself to Boston after being trade with Derek Lowe for Heathcliff Slocum on July 31st, 2007 in possibility one of the worst trades of all-time. On arrival at Fenway Varitek found himself splitting time with Scott Hatteberg. A season later, the Red Sox gave Veritek the starting position and 483 at-bats. Varitek responded by hit 20 home runs and .269/.330/.482. The 1999 63-97 Minnesota Twins relied on a 37-year-old Steinbach who hit 4 homes and .284/.358/.391 in 338 at-bats. Had the Twins made proper reparations for Varitek, they would have 16 more home runs and an ops+ 16 points higher while being $2.63 million lighter in the payroll.

On the other hand, had we received commitment from Varitek we may never had the incentive to play AJ Piersynski and therefore we might not be discussing Boof Bonser's new found diet, Francisco Liriano's rehab program or whether or not to trade Joe Nathan to a National League team. Ultimately, not signing Varitek was a blessing in disguise.

2002. r12.362) Jeff Clement

So he hasn't seen much major league time yet (just 19 plate appearances with Seattle) and we do have a pretty good core of catchers (Mauer and Redmond) but Clement is possibly the best prospect in the Mariners organization not named Adam Jones. And having an embarrassment of riches in one position is a good thing.

The Twins tried to select Clement, the Marshalltown, Iowa standout with their 12th round pick, but instead he decided to attended USC in hopes of moving up several rounds. And he did: In 2005 with their 1st round, 3rd overall pick, the Mariners locked him up.

Baseball America had him ranked as the premier prospect in the organization in 2006 - only to be usurped by Jones in 2007 - but his 2007 numbers helped solidify him as an elite hitter ready for Safeco. After finishing 2006 in Triple-A Tacoma with 270 plate appearances, 4 home runs and .257/.316/.347, Clement returned to Tacoma for a full season in 2007 where he emerged as a left-handed power threat with 20 home runs in 533 plate appearances and hit .275/.369/.497. Most impressive though were his peripheral stats such as his high walk rate (12.0%), relatively low strikeout rate (16.5%), and good line drive rate (19%) all bode very well for a 24-year-old.

Had the Twins convinced Clement to sign, we might be in the midst of the same debate Seattle is having regarding where Clement belongs on the field. He is currently blocked by Kenji Johjima (and to a lesser extent Jamie Burke) and there has been some internal discussion of relocating Clement elsewhere. He will most likely start 2008 in Tacoma again but if his numbers come anywhere close to his 2007 totals he will be shuttled up I-5 in no time.

infielders

1987. r28.711) Bret Boone

Between 1993 and 1997 the Twins had no real need for a second baseman since Chuck Knoblauch was firmly entrenched in that position but Boone had significant trade value when he was moved several times in the course of his career that netted his former teams Dan Wilson, Bobby Ayala, Rob Bell, Denny Neagle, Wally Joyner and Reggie Sanders among others. Had the Twins drafted, signed and developed him like they had wanted to in 1987, they may have had a solid bargaining chip for similar trades in the lean 1990s.

His career numbers are good at first glace for a second baseman (252 home runs, .266/.325/.466), but with the exception of three seasons where he seemingly "injected" offensive while with Seattle where he hit 37, 24 and 35 home runs (2001-2003) and his first year with Cincinnati where he had a 123 ops+ (1994), the rest of his career is stunningly average.

Most Twins fans will reflect fondly on Boone's 9 singles and 3 rbis he procured in his 14 games played with Minnesota in 2005. Absolutely no love lost by letting that fish get away.

1966. r3.60) Steve Garvey

The Twins tried to get Garvey, a native of Tampa, Florida, in the 1966 draft. Garvey declined to sign and found his way to the franchise that he grew up idolizing. In 1968 Garvey was drafted by the Los Angeles Dodgers as a third baseman out of Michigan State (he had a duel football/baseball scholarship). Unfortunately, Garvey arrived in LA with a severe case of throw-the-ball-away-itis. In 1972, Garvey accumulated 28 errors in only 85 games. It got so bad, as Rob Neyer describes in his book "Big Book of Baseball Lineups", that when Garvey was manning third the running joke was that it was "Ball Night at Dodger Stadium". The Dodgers shifted him around the diamond to first base in 1974 where he emerged as an elite ballplayer being rewarded with an National League MVP for his 21 home runs, .312/.342/.469 season in addition to a gold glove.

Meanwhile in Minnesota, the Twins were milking the last remaining good years out of Harmon Killebrew:

- In 1972, the 36-year-old Killebrew hit 26 home runs and finished with a .231/.367/.450 batting line before steadily declining in the next three seasons.

-In 1973, Killebrew played in 69 games and the majority of time Joe Lis was playing first base and hit .245/.325/.403 with 9 home runs.

-In 1974, Killebrew played in just 33 games at first while Craig Kusick was the starter who replicated Lis's line at .239/.353/.403 with 8 home runs.

-By 1975, the Killebrew era ended in Minnesota and the next few seasons Kusick and Rod Carew split time at first. The 29-year-old Carew hit very well (.359/.421/.497) but without any home run power.

As the Twins were wallowing in offensive futility at first base, Garvey was a perennial MVP candidate for the remainder of the 1970s. Though never really a contender between 1972 and 1975, by 1976 the Twins finished 5.0 games behind Oakland and Kansas City in the AL West. Garvey added nearly 3 marginal wins to the Los Angeles Dodgers with his bat alone. Had he been with Minnesota, this may have been enough offense to propel the Twins ahead of both the A's and Royals. After 1976, the Twins once again faded from pennant contention.

(Note: It is hard to estimate how many extra children would have been fathered by Garvey had he signed with the Twins.)

outfielders

1992. r38.1074) Gary Matthews Jr.

Yes, Torii Hunter's future outfield mate in Anaheim was selected by the Twins in 1992. Declining to sign, Matthews re-entered the draft only to be selected in 1993 by San Diego in the 13th round. Since coming up with the Padres in 1999, Matthews has spent nine seasons with seven different teams and did not receive ample playing time until 2001 at the rip age of 26. Matthews made a name for himself with his glove in center with Texas making Web Gem catches meanwhile his offensive has been grossly overrated due to the 2006 season's output.

From 2000 to 2005 the Twins had possibility one of the better defensive outfield combinations in the American League. Torii Hunter, Matt Lawton, Jacque Jones as the nucleus along with Dusty Kielmohr, Shannon Stewart and Lew Ford offering support after Lawton was traded. Had Matthews been placed in the rotation during that time as well, flyballs hit at the Dome may never have reached the turf the entire season and the highlight reel would be cranking out Web Gems.

Offensively, Matthews would have been a downgrade from Lawton, Jones or Stewart.

offensive honorable mentions

1993. r37.1045) Emil Brown: Good right-handed utility player. Rule 5 draft pick from Oakland to Pittsburgh. Too many at-bats with Kansas City, not enough with Pittsburgh. Hits lefties ok (.264/.338/.439).

1994. r11.295) David Dellucci: Drafted by Baltimore a year after the Twins then nabbed by the Diamondbacks in the expansion draft. Obvious platoon candidate. Hits righties well (.263/.355/.464). The lefties? Er, not so much (.204/.269/.310). The Twins had no real need for him, we'll see if Cleveland does.

2002. r8.242) Adam Lind: Good minor league numbers so far. Had two stints with the Blue Jays where he consistently hit line drives at a 20% clip.

The 2007 Minnesota Twins Draft Review: The Final Six.

(For the introduction and rounds one through ten, please click here. To review rounds eleven through twenty, click here.)

This is the area of the draft that is sometimes reserved for descendents of managers (Toby Gardenhire, 41st round in 2005, prior to that, 38th in 2002. Prior to that in 1984, Billy Gardner's kid was draft in the 37th round), local high school athletes chosen possibly to save on the scouting travel budget (Many, including former Wisconsin Badgers QB and Holy Angels (Richfield) graduate Jon Stocco was selected at 45th in 2002 while in 1999 with the very same choice the Twins opted for one Park Center graduate named Pat Neshek who declined and went to college instead), multi-tooled athletes that slipped because no one expects them to sign (1999's 22nd round selection of current Bear and hate crime instigator Ricky Manning Jr) or hidden front office desires that only manifest themselves in later transactions (Nick Punto in the 33rd round in the 1997 draft who decline a contract only to later be included in on the Eric Milton trade. A year prior to that in 1996, they had selected Mike Lamb - who did not sign as well - in the 31st round). Either way, few sign, even fewer make legitimate contributions to the big club. Then again, in 1995 with their 26th round choice, the Twins picked a third baseman/volleyball player out of a small college in Dugald, Manitoba named Corey Koskie.

From picks twenty-one through fifty, the Twins only inked six:

r21.662) Ozzie Lewis - 21-years-old - of

With the 662nd pick overall, the Twins selected a right-handed batting outfielder out of Fresno State. In a outfielder deficient organization, Lewis had an impressive season with Elizabethton, even being named the Appalachian League's Player of the Year. By the standard numbers Lewis did quite well as noted by his .323/.375/.523 batting line in a league whose average is .257/.333/.379 adding an ops that was 186 points higher than the league. His powerful 6'5" frame helped him generate power too: he finished the year with a .200 isolated slugging average where he hit 9 home runs, 18 doubles and 1 triple: that's a whopping 28 extra base hits in 72 hits total (38.8% of his hits went for extra bases). In typical slugger fashion, Lewis strikes out a considerable amount (19.9% k%) and walks less than he should (7.3% bb%) but his contact is good, screaming line drives all over the field in 17% of his balls in play. His babip is high (.385) and will readjust next season and likely see his batting average dip some. While some think plate disipline cannot not be acquired, only time will tell if Lewis can make the necessary adjustments as the competition gets better next season.

r24.752) Charles Nolte - 21-years-old - rhp (rp)

This 752nd pick overall comes fresh from season-ending surgery in 2005 where Nolte was pitching for San Diego State. With the GCL Twins, Nolte pitched in 14 games, accruing 24.1 innings. Nothing less than an extreme groundball pitcher would be the most accruate potrait of Nolte as he managed to induce groundballs on 74% of balls in play which not surrendering a home run. His 3-0 record and 1.85 era is impressive however he is a tad wild. He has walked 10.6% of the 104 batters faced but has struck out 21.2% of those. So effectively wild? Then again, as a middle reliever the last thing you want to do is start adding baserunners when the score is close.

r25.782) Spencer Steedley - 22-years-old - lhp (rp)

From UNC-Charlotte, Steedley had a respectable season with Elizabethton. While is 2-3 record doesn't look impressive, Steedley finished the season strong. His professional career and the month of June started off on the wrong foot. His walk rate was high (11.1%), his era matched (6.75), and a babip was equally as high (.333), it appeared that moving him permanently from a position player to a pitcher might be a mistake. His saving grace was his ability to get a strike out (22.2% of batters faced). His numbers began to improve in July and by the end of August, Steedley was reaffirming the Twins in their decision to move him to the mound: his walk rate had melted (3.3%), his strike out rate grew exponentially (37.7%), the balls put in play were no longer finding green grass (.226) and his August era reflected this improvement (2.30). If his 2008 season starts like the 2007 season ended, he might have the ability to advance. If he regresses into his June form, he might find himself back in Carolina.

r36.1105) Dominique Rodgers - 22-years-old - rhp (rp)

Played at Kent State and in his short amount of work for the GCL Twins (just 9.2 innings), Rhodes faced a total of 47 batters and had an inflated era of 4.66. I don't like to judge players on their standard numbers as much alone (i.e. era, rbi, etc), but when you give up 10 hits and 6 walks in that short amount of time too it would appear that you might not be able to cut it.

r38.1161) Chris Cates - 22-years-old - ss

.202/.262/.235. 3 extra base hits (all doubles) in 144 plate appearances. The numbers are as small as the player (cheap shot, I know). I can't defend them but they are while playing for the Beloit Snappers in the Midwest League. He's living the dream. Kudos.

r43.1294) Andres Diaz - 19-years-old - c

The Twins picked him in 2006 with their 966th pick in the 32nd round but he declined to sign. Not much to report on his inaugural season. Only managed to find himself in four games and got eleven plate appearances.

The 2007 Minnesota Twins Draft Review: Continuum.

This is a continuation of sorting through the statistical deluge that is the first seasons of the Twins 2007 amateur draft picks. Please click here if you want the full round 1 through 10 rundown. While initial reviews had condemned some of the Twins selections as frugal and misguided (particularly Keith Law's ESPN and Carlos Gomez's Hardball Times diatribes bashing the Ben Revere pick), but on the whole, it appears that while opportunities may have been wasted on the organization's behalf (i.e. too much focus on catchers) in the early rounds, the later picks too have contributed in their inaugural seasons. Frugal, yes. Misguided? You decide:

r11.362) Andrew Schmiesing - 21-years-old - of

Schmiesing, like Glen Perkins before him, was a standout athlete at Stillwater (all-conference in baseball, football and basketball) and opted to attend St. Olaf's in Northfield where he excelled on the diamond and the gridiron. Prior to the baseball draft, Patrick Ruesse penned an ode to the multi-sport Schmiesing and his impending decision: football or baseball. When the Twins selected the local standout with their 392nd overall pick, Schmiesing decided to forgo both a college degree and a football career and report to the Gulf Coast League. Once there, Schmiesing showed great plate discipline (walking in 13.5% of his plate appearances) and contact (12.8% strikeout rate) resulting in a .321 batting average and superb .421 on-base percentage (this from a league whose averages are .252 and .332 respectively). Lacking any significant power (a .037 isop and only 4 doubles), Schmiesing beat the ball into the ground far too frequently (50% gb%) coupled with a low line drive percentage (9% ld%) from someone with a 6'4" frame. If his power develops and he retains his plate awareness, Schmiesing has the potential advance within the organization.

r12.392) Michael Tarsi - 21-years-old - lhp (sp)

The first left-handed pitcher selected by the Twins, Tarsi, a graduate of UConn, was another immediate contributor to the Elizabethton Twins. The 6'8" lefty threw 52.2 innings in 11 starts which resulted in a 5-2 record and a minuscule 2.22 (in a league whose average is 4.17). He has good command of his pitches as evident by his 26.6% strikeout rate and low 5.9% walk rate. When batters were making contact he induced groundballs in 68% of balls in play and did not yield a home run. Tarsi is yet another good starting pitching prospect in an already good cadre of arms.

r14.452) Danny Rohlfing - 18-years-old - c

Another catcher selected by the Twins, this time from the St Louis, MO area, Rohlfing has had a tough first year for the GCL Twins. While playing against older competition (average of 20), Rohlfing finished with a .232/.313/.250 batting line, significantly lower than the league's .252/.332/.359 average. What's more, Rohlfing in his 64 plate appearances struck out 17.2% of the time. When he did make contact, Rohlfing hit groundballs in 56% of the ones in play. Rohlfing is still young enough to improve his performance next season and this does not spell doom for the young catcher however it does hinder his hopes for advancement in a system that is flush with catchers such as Rams and Lehmann elected in the same draft ahead of him (and as we will later see Ben Petsch drafted behind him).

r15.482) Daniel Latham - 23-years-old - rhp (rp)

Like Blair Erickson selected in the 10th round, Latham had considerable success as a college closer for Tulane University, his first professional season was not as rewarding. At Elizabethton, Latham's peripheral numbers were very good (26.2% k% and 2.4% bb%), however he gave up 14 earned runs (including 2 home runs) in 25.1 innings of work. His inflated era (4.91) seems to be isolated into one month. In 6 innings in July, Latham had an era of 12.00 as a result of a babip of .565 and only inducing groundballs on 27% of the balls hit in play. In spite of this, Latham did not walk anyone and he struck out 27.2% of the batters faced in that stretch. Ultimately, his 28-to-3 strikeouts-to-walks is indicative of someone who has good command and an out pitch. If he can keep hitters from making solid contact, increasing his groundball rate, Latham could be another useful reliever in the existing arsenal.

r16.512) Nelvin Fuentes - 18-years-old - lhp (rp)

Fuentes appears to be someone who is throwing to contact (read: finesse), especially when you consider his GCL Twins numbers (11.5% k%, 2.77 era and a low .194 babip). Unfortunately, his accuracy could use some help since he ended up walking 5 in 13 innings of relief (9.6% walk rate) which would negate the entire purpose of being a pitcher who pitches to contact. From the Puerto Rico Baseball Academy, one might consider Fuentes to be a future LOOGY but gave up a .625 average against left-handed batters (5 hits) and struck out none. The ability to get left-handed batters out is a strong prerequisite for a lefty in the bullpen. Fuentes will have to adjust his approach and find the strikezone if he would like to advance in the system.

r18.572) Lee Martin - 21-years-old - rhp (rp)

Like Fuentes, Martin reported to the Gulf Coast League and performed well out of the bullpen when looking at the standard numbers. His 2-1 record coupled with a 3.21 era and 13 strikeouts looks good but his control looks suspect when you consider his 10.9% walk rate. Then again, of the 55 batters faced Martin managed to entice groundballs on 54% of balls in play. A few more season could correct his command.

r19.602) Ben Petsch - 23-years-old - c

Petsch had an electrifying season until a broken hand effectively sidelined him for the remainder of the 2007 season. A graduate of Belmont University in Nashville, Petsch started with Elizabethton and began campaigning as one of the more successful late round catchers selected. Drafted as a catcher in name only, Petsch has played all over the diamond including both corner outfield positions, first base and catcher. He spent most of his first season as a professional in left field (13 games). Offensively, Petsch showed patience, power and the ability to make consistent contact. In his 95 plate appearances in the Appalachian League, Petsch coaxed 21 walks (22.1% bb%), struck out only 15 times (15.8% k%), produced an isolated slugging average of .162, and sprayed line drives over the field at an 18% clip. Before receiving a promotion to the Midwest League, Petsch hit .311/.463/.473 resulting in an ops of .936 - 224 points above the league average. After Allan de San Migual was promoted from Beloit to Ft. Myers, the Twins took the opportunity to advance Petsch as well, having him fill de San Migual's roster spot. In 14 plate appearances for the Snappers, Petsch once again produced solid numbers including walking 4 times, knocking in 2 rbis and tripling once (leading to a .200 isop). Petsch will have to wait until next season to reaffirm his legitimacy, however with the numbers he has thus far provided, he certainly has the opportunity to be one of the better offensive prospects to watch in 2008.

Picks in rounds 21 thorugh 50 forthcoming (although only six of them signed)...

The 2007 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks: A Retrospective.

Not too long ago when I was in high school, Michael Lewis had yet to pen Moneyball, and Britney Spears was still a virgin, a student ballplayer from a rival school in my conference happened to be selected in the amateur drafted following my junior year. He was fast, tall and was spoken of by others as if he had all the tools. Frankly, he looked like a ballplayer but many of us were dubious of his skills simply because we were high school boys and generally skeptical of undue praise for other players. In the middle of the hype that brought various college coaches to the games, our pitcher claimed he was going to strike him out in four pitches each at-bat. Sure enough, in two consecutive at-bats, our pitcher set him up with inside fastballs only to get him lunging after two outside offspeed pitches. It was beautiful and this help garrison our notion that scouts were drafting on appearance rather than skill. After spending several seasons on the diamond with him, most of us ended up thinking that we were better than him, regardless of the amount of division one offers he would be receiving.

When he eventually got drafted in a very late round, there was a mini-mutiny from some of the juniors who began to think that our coach was not "repping" us enough to college coaches and scouts. To quell the small riot, in one of the rare nuggets of insight I remember my high school coach expounding on us shortly after the kid from the rival team would have been reporting to a rookie league or instructional camp, the coach gathered us around and hit us with some knowledge. He said "Major League draft picks are like sperm: only one in a billion is ever going to be productive."

Even though this statement did not relieve the idea that none of us would never be drafted (or play for a major college), I carry it with me whenever I review the five-billion rounds of draft picks. Even thought Michael Lewis and Billy Beane have since corrected me regarding the importance of the major league draft, I can't help but use the sperm metaphor (gross, but surprisingly accurate) when considering the most recent draft. After all, the minor league system is like a funnel where the strong advance and the weaker players are discarded back to the towns from whence they came. Some have troubles adapting to stronger pitching and wood bats. Some can't rely on two pitches alone that carried them through high school ball. The Twins Draft Class of '07 has finished jockeying for position in the rookie leagues. Here is a breakdown of picks in rounds one through ten following their first professional season:

r1.28) Ben Revere - 19-years-old - CF

After being questioned for selecting yet another powerless outfielder, the Twins were rewarded when 19-year-old Kentucky native Ben Revere demonstrated the qualities of a respectable draft pick in a half-season in the Gulf Coast Rookie League. In a league that averaged an ops of .691, Revere produced a .849 ops. The pre-draft analysis proved accurate when it came to his power and speed. His inability to hit the long ball (0 home runs) was apparent but he offset this with an isolated power average (isop) of .136 through 16 extra base hits (25.8% xbh%). Revere has the speed as indicated by his 21 stolen bases, however, getting caught stealing nine times ultimately cost team scoring opportunities, netting the team negative run production of -0.17. Overall he finished with a .325/.388/.461 line that earned him a spot on the GCL post-season all-star team. In comparison, Denard Span finished his first season in rookie ball Elizabethton with a paltry line of .271/.343/.319 and a ops that was below the league's average. Span, four years Revere's elder, followed up his first year with a season shared between the GCL and Midwest league and has played himself into a spot where he is no longer the centerfielder of the future. Revere also had a good split between righties and lefties. The left-handed Revere hit .299/.342/.438 in 144 at-bats against righties but handled lefties much better with a .404/.508/.532 line in 47 at-bats. Though 216 plate appearances are not enough to pass judgement, it would seem that Revere has more tools than previously thought and has a better chance of making an ascension to the big club.

r2.92) Daniel Rams - 19-years-old - C/1b

Reporting to GCL Twins in July, Daniel finished the season in typical fashion for a 19-year-old catcher. Displaying no significant power (no home runs, .093 isop), Rams had trouble adapting to the level of pitching that differed from what Gulliver Prep in Miami offered, striking out in 22 of his 107 plate appearances (20.6% k%) and managed to coax walks times (5.6% bb%) against GCL pitching. He finished the season with a middle infielder batting line of .258/.311/.361 but actually slugged better than the GCL average of .359. In 16 games behind the plate, Rams did not commit any errors. He carries great arm strength in his 222-lb frame. One scout told Baseball America that "whatever is the highest grade on your scale, that's what his arm is". Rams's large stature is could hinder his development as a catcher which is why the Twins are giving him reps at first base. Offensive improvement such as pitch recognition is a must for Rams if he expects to move beyond single-A ball.

r3.122) Angel Morales - 18-years-old - rf

Plucked from the Puerto Rico Baseball Academy, Morales was ranked number 198th on the pre-draft rankings by Baseball America when the Twins selected him 122nd overall. In his first season with the GCL Twins he lacked plate discipline as evident by his 30.3% strikeout rate (44 ks in 143 plate appearances). He finished the season with a respectable .256/.357/.405 and two home runs. Morales produced a .762 ops, 71 points higher than the league average which could indicate that he isn't over-matched but in need of more plate appearances. He also slugged 46 points higher than the league average as well. In an organization like the Twins that are hoping for outfield talent to develop, Morales will get all the slack in the world to see if he can develop as a hitter.

r4.152) Reggie Williams - 19-years-old - ss

Signed with the Twins on August 16th, 2007. Williams comes from an fairly athletic lineage which bodes well considering his father, Reggie Sr, was a football player who played for the Houston Oilers in addition to the Arizona Wranglers and LA Express of the USFL. Reggie Jr reported to the Instructional League in Ft. Myers in September.

r6.212) Michael McCardell - 23-years-old - rhp (sp)

Could be the steal-of-the-draft for the Twins at the 212 pick overall. A graduate of Kutztown University in Pennsylvania, whose motto is "Continue on...even if she says no" (no joke), McCardell is the first college graduate and pitcher that the Twins drafted which is probably not a coincidence. Currently John Sickel's number 10 Twins prospects, McCardell began 2007 blasting his way through the GCL (and much younger competition). In 67 batters faced, McCardell struck out 44 of them (40.2% k%) in addition to only walking 3 of them (2.9% bb%). Recognizing a need to challenge him, the Twins moved him up the farm system hierarchy having him start 8 games in Elizabethtown where he went 5-1 with a 2.00 era. He treated the offensive in the Appalachian League with the same disrespect, striking out 70 of the 174 batters faced (37.3% k%) while maintaining the same control as demonstrated by his 4.5% walk rate. In October he was deservedly named to Baseball America's Rookie All-Star team. While currently being developed to be a starter, I wouldn't might seeing McCardell be transitioned into the bullpen where he could replace Eduardo Morlan as the organization's future closer.

r7.242) Dan Berlind - 20-years-old - rhp (sp)

This 6'7", 210-lb Los Angeles native reported to the GCL Twins and finished with 56 innings, a 6-1 record and a 2.02 era. Like McCardell selected a round before him, Berlind is slightly older than the competition. But like McCardell before him too, Berlind dispatched the hitters like someone older should. Of 222 batters faced Berlind pined 52 of them (23.4% k%). He may have some control issue to massage (9.0% bb%) but it is more nitpicking on my part. Judging from this YouTube clip of him in junior college, you can see that he uses his size well: he stays tall and does not rush his delivery. His body does fly-open slightly on the pitches low and away. Often pitchers approaching his height have the tendency to rely only on the large arm-whip action. This to me says that he was already a well-groomed pitcher when the Twins spend their 242nd pick on him. A season in Elizabethton will undoubtedly help finesse the remaining raw thrower out of him and hopefully develop into yet another high-caliber Twins pitching prospect.

r8.272) Danny Lehmann - 22-years-old - c

Rice University's Danny Lehmann was the Twins's 272nd pick and the second catcher selected. While not having has many acclimates defensively as Rams, Lehmann put together a so-so year with Elizabethton. Finishing with a batting line of .221/.333/.364, Lehmann slugged 3 homers and bagged 2 doubles leading to a .143 isop. He made decent contact, striking out in only 11.1% of his plate appearances he also had a keen batting eye walking in 10.0% as well. The 5'11" catcher seems to beat the ball into the grass as evident by groundballs in 52.0% of his batted balls and managed to hit line drives in only 9% which resulted in a poor .219 babip. If his contact improves to the point where he is getting more air under the ball, Lehmann could be productive at the plate in the future.

r9.302) Steven Hirschfeld - 22-years-old -rhp (sp)

Yet another large statute pitcher (6'5", 220-lb), Hirschfeld, in his inaugural professional season, finished with Elizabethton 1-2 record with an era slightly higher (4.26) than the 4.17 Appalachian League average in 25.1 innings pitched. While this doesn't look particularly reaffirming, Hirschfeld essentially had one bad month. In June, he pitched 3.0 innings of shut-out ball. July proved more tumultuous where his 17.1 innings resulted in a 6.23 era. His babip was an inflated .308 but he did strikeout 18.3% of his 71 batters faced and walked only 4.3%. It would appear that he was working up in the zone considering his groundball rate was 33%. In his 5.0 innings of work in August, Hirschfeld did not allow a run in 19 batters faced. When they did make contact against him in August 82% of them were groundballs. While his bookend months were solid, the 8.o innings of shut-out ball just isn't enough to pass judgement on a pitcher. If his strikeout rate/walk rate remains consistent next season, Hirschfeld could prove to be a good draft pick in round 9.

r10.332) Blair Erickson - 23-years-old - rhp (rp)

The UC Irvine closer who holds the NCAA record for saves with 53 entered Elizabethton with the same late-innings dominance that he had while with the Anteaters. In 17.2 innings, Erickson struck out 17 (22.5% k%) and surrendered only 14 hits with his very good 68% groundball rate. Brewerfan.net reports that Erickson's fastball has lost some velocity (now in the 87-91 range) prior to the 2007 season and his slider has lost its bite. Dispite all the initial reports, his first-year results were good. His performance might attributed to being two years older than league average but he still proved to be overpowering. In the wake of the Eduardo Morlan trade and losing Tim Lehay in the Rule 5 draft, Erickson has the opportunity to aggressively advance within the Twins farm system as a closer.

Analysis of picks 11 through 20 forthcoming later this week...