OtB Twins Notes

With the numbers-trimming in camp on the horizon, Joe Christensen reports that top prospect Kyle Gibson will not be joining the team in Minnesota at the on-set of the season.

This move isn’t a surprise as the front office likely wants to keep their best pitching prospect from running headlong into arbitration too quickly as well as getting some additional seasoning at the AAA level. As I wrote about last month, Gibson’s got some outstanding stuff - not necessarily blow-you-away type stuff, but good enough to project to be successful in the near future by keeping the ball on the turf. Likewise, the team’s coaching staff shares that sentiment and his arrival at the big club is likely imminent as manager Ron Gardenhire said that “[Gibson’s] got tickets in hand. One of them, I'm sure, will head to Minnesota at some point.” Again, it’s the matter of the front office agreeing with the field management in initiating his arbitration clock but it is not unreasonable to think Gibson’s time is quickly approaching.

In a radio interview with 1500ESPN’s Jim Souhan and Tom Pelissaro, Twins assistant GM Rob Antony told the pair that Neshek’s arm strength is improving but not quite back to his pre-surgery form.

At Tuesday’s game, Neshek weathered a tumultuous inning – giving up a bombastic drive into the palms off of the bat of Lyle Overbay and was rescued from another extra base hit by the outstanding range of Ben Revere who laid out on the warning track for the catch – and has managed to put up respectable numbers overall this spring. Of course the issue isn’t what his results have been in a handful of spring training innings but rather the process in which he has achieved them.

Earlier in the week, the radar at Hammond Stadium saw his fastball reaching just 84 at his speediest but sitting closer in the 82 range. All those outs that were recorded on Tuesday would fall under the category of “loud outs”. But now Neshek may have turned a corner. By Antony’s testament, Neshek’s subsequent outing saw him with a velocity that was northwards of his previous outing, “hitting 88, 89” and his slider had “good depth”. The caveat is that Antony did not have a radar gun on him in his most recent inning but felt that he had the best movement of his stuff so far this spring.

If Neshek can return to his pre-Tommy John performance, this would give the bullpen a significant boast and be able to provide Gardenhire with a good option against right-handed hitters that has been lost with the departure of Matt Guerrier (.205 average vs RHB in ’10) and Jesse Crain (.224 average vs RHB in ’10). Dating back to 2006, Neshek has held same-sided opponents to a .172 average with an impressive 11.74 strikeouts per nine innings. A little resurrection in that area would help stretch out the bullpen.  

La Velle Neal shares some notes regarding two of the Twins more intriguing starting pitching prospects not named Kyle Gibson: David Bromberg and Deolis Guerra.

Having spent last Monday and Tuesday in camp, I caught both Bromberg and Guerra’s outings on the backfield of the complex on Tuesday against the Pirates. Positioning myself behind home plate along with the scouts, I monitored their bank of radar guns that were constantly directed at the playing field. In general, Bromberg did not appear crisp – at least in respect to the vaunted command that he is celebrated for. While he mixed in three pitches of various speeds (a fastball that was hitting 88-89 regularly, a change that was coming in at 84 and a slow curve coming in around 74), he was a bit on the erratic side and missing his spots. To his credit, the large-bodied right-hander missed his spots too far inside and outside, avoiding missing out over the plate and getting punished.  From the perspective from behind the plate, you can see that Bromberg hides the ball well (especially from right-handed hitters) and that once he regains his midseason form, he should be able to build on his success at the higher levels.

Guerra, on the other hand, is a bigger mystery. Similarly statured to Bromberg, once rumored to have a mid-90s fastball, Guerra did not demonstrate anything that resembled that kind of heat on Tuesday. In the inning I witnessed, the radar guns said his fastball sat at the same level as Bromberg. While I was not privy to the heavily lauded 12-to-6 curveball, he did show a decent changeup and because of his long arms and legs, Guerra’s motion adds to the deception. However, the issue that I noted was that with both his fastball and change was that he seemed to have trouble throwing it consistently. Judging from his stature, you get mesmerized in what results he could be producing though because he seems to struggle with consistency in his control of all his pitches, unlike Bromberg this has not yet translated into a track record of success.

Randball’s Michael Rand wonders why Brian Duensing is so often overlooked.

Fair question.

Now with eight innings and a 7-to-1 strikeout-to-walks ratio under his belt this spring, it’s hard to present a discouraging word about Duensing’s inclusion into the rotation. The statistical community certainly can point to some numbers (such as left-on-base rate, strikeout rate and FIP) and say he’s performing over his head while the scouting-based contingency can simply rebuttal with Duensing’s continued success as a pitcher.

Given some of his tendency I outlined a week ago, I now firmly believe the truth lies somewhere in-between the two camps. He’s scheduled to experience some regression however he attacks the strike zone, hits his spots and mixes in three solid offerings to buoy himself as a starter.

What stats-oriented analysts (me included) have trouble grasping is that a small percentage of contact pitchers who do not possess the sexy strikeout rates or gaudy groundball numbers that do experience sustained success to some degree actually  exist. They are hard to identify as they are a rare breed but the Mark Buerhle’s of the world come from somewhere. Their spot-hitting and pitch selection do not show up within the Fangraphs.com’s warehouse of stats and yet given the right circumstances (i.e. defense, wide berth of a stadium, a potent offense) these types of pitchers can post season after season of below forecasted ERAs and higher than expected wins totals.

So even though Duensing’s statistical indicators makes some question his future potential, he has earned the right to demonstrate whether or not he might be the future Mark Buerhle. If it turns out he does regress, he’s always welcomed back into the bullpen.  

David Pinto at BaseballMusings.com uses his Lineup Analyzer to predict the offense for the 2011 Twins.

Pinto’s “best lineup” scenario has the Twins scoring an average of 5.32 runs per game – an improvement over MLB’s sixth highest last year. Of course, this scenario assumes that Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau will be hitting higher in the order given their impressive on-base percentages. Although both have been moved up in the order in the past, Ron Gardenhire is much more inclined to slotting either Tsuyoshi Nishioka (his stated preference to start the season) or Alexi Casilla in the number two spot. The more likely lineup will churn out an estimated 5.21 runs per game – an improvement nonetheless. 

Rounding out the rotation

On Wednesday, Ron Gardenhire stated that he fully intends on using Brian Duensing as a starter in 2011, presumably joining Francisco Liriano and Carl Pavano in the rotation. By most accounts, Duensing had given ample reason based on his performance last season to keep him as a headliner rather than hide him away in the bullpen. Now, it is up to Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn to jockey for the final two positions.

While arguably capable of being a solid number two starter, Baker’s recent elbow issue has probably caused the coaches and front office to cringe a bit, hoping that he emerges from this setback without any further damage to his arm. News regarding Slowey has been surprisingly quiet this spring. Considering he has now had two consecutive seasons cut short with injuries, you would expect more updates on his developments. What we do know, however, is that in his one appearance this spring, he’s allowed three runs on a home run and issued two walks in two innings of work. Blackburn, meanwhile, had the same offseason surgery that Baker did but has (so far) appeared to return to the mound without the struggles, even going so far as saying his arm felt like new.

Of the three, I would speculate that Blackburn will to be the next suitor to receive Ron Gardenhire’s rotation rose.

Undeniably, Blackburn’s 2010 season was unpleasant – both for him and for us. After a terrific month of May, he unraveled faster than a Charlie Sheen interview as opponents took aim at what seemed to be his hanging fastballs. From June until mid-July, teams slugged .653 with 11 home runs over the course of 10 games. Nevertheless, after a brief stint in Rochester, he reemerged as a decent option for the playoffs (had they continued past Game 3). In his final nine games, Blackburn held opponents to a .356 slugging against and six home runs. With the exception of his debacle against Kansas City in which he allowed eight runs, he held opposing teams to three runs of fewer in those starts.

Just recently we learned that he went through all that while battling an elbow injury and, because of this, he admitted that he was forced to stop throwing his slider/cutter. Although this may seem minor, it likely played a significant role in Blackburn’s messy season.

Last May, right before his best run of the season, I used pitch f/x to present the case of his missing slider. Turns out, either opposing hitters either read the StarTribune’s TwinCentric content (highly unlikely) or they became well aware of his pitch selection shortly thereafter, decimating his sliderless repertoire post-May. According to Indians/Mariners slugger Russell Branyan, who had happened to run into Blackburn at a Garth Brooks concert (Author’s note: okay, Michael Buble concert), Branyan told Blackburn hitters picked up on that fact pretty quickly.

It’s no small wonder why his swing-and-miss rate plummeted last season upon the abandonment of his pitch that was best qualified to incite an empty swing:

Nick Blackburn’s Missing Bats:
	Swinging Strike%	Contact%
2008	6.5%	86.7%
2009	5.4%	88.1%
2010	4.1%	91.0%

                 (via Fangraphs.com)

The difference between his post-May-prior-to-demotion-days and his late-season-recall-days in which he had some success is that he stopped throwing his two-seamer exclusively. He worked in his change-up more, giving the hitters something else to think about while at the plate. For the most part, this seemed to work.

Of course, despite the improvement after his demotion, as Jonathan Scippa pointed out at BaseballAnalytics.org, righties were still crushing all over him. The conclusion is that without his slider/cutter, which he threw predominately to right-handed foes, Blackburn was more susceptible to big hits from same-sided opponents without that secondary option of the slider. Adding the slider back to his repertoire should help keep his same-sided opponents from laying into his offerings as much.

Keep in mind that given his abnormally high contact rate, coupled with his unusually low strikeout rate previous to the 2010 season, do not anticipate a sudden breakout season from the right-hander. It’s not as if adding the slider is going to transform him into Roy Halladay. What can be reasonable to think is that Blackburn can tone down that loud ERA – somewhere closer to the 4.00 number – while chewing threw 200 innings. If he can maintain an above-average ability to induce groundballs, shave a few walks off his totals and maybe even strikeout an extra batter or two per game, Blackburn is plenty capable of having a bounce-back season in 2011 and providing the Twins with a solid back-of-the-rotation starter.

Projecting Brian Duensing

Ron Gardenhire announced after Wednesday’s game that Brian Duensing was guaranteed a spot in the starting rotation. This news was pretty much anticipated given Duensing’s performance as a starter the previous two seasons coupled with the other candidates’ injuries and ineffectiveness.

Without question, Duensing pitched admirably for the Twins last season, acting as a vital cog in assisting the Twins to their second consecutive division title. Still, based on his peripherals and his average-ish stuff overall, there are some who believe that a repeat performance is unlikely. On the other hand, Duensing now has proven in two samplings that he is capable of handling the job, perhaps one of those rare breeds of pitchers who consistently outperform their peripherals.

Since we can’t measure heart or analyze his mentality, let’s take a look at some of the data from last year and see if it can tell us anything about his future performance:

Brian Duensing’s Efficiency (2010)
Category:	Selected Outings	MLB Average	Grade
% of PA’s that go to 3 ball counts:	15%	20%	A+
1st batter of inning out%:	79%	67%	A+
3 or less pitch PA’s:	52%	45%	A
4 or less pitch PA’s:	71%	65%	A

(via MyInsideEdge.com)

As you can see, Duensing thrived in this department comparative to the rest of the league. These are the qualities that a manager loves – get the first guy out and don’t lull your defense to sleep by throwing a ton of pitches in an at-bat.

According to BaseballProspectus.com’s run expectancy chart for 2010, the difference between letting the first runner of an inning on base versus retiring him was 0.59 runs. By keeping the first hitter from reaching, Duensing undoubtedly shaved plenty of would-be runs off of his ledger.

This is unquestionably good. The problem occurs when you ask yourself if any of these skills are repeatable. Certainly, Duensing’s ability to pepper the strike zone and entice contact quickly in the count is a skill that can carry over, but then you have to wonder if more of those batted balls in play will start to go for hits – particularly doing the first at-bat of an inning thereby increasing an opponent’s ability to score runs.

Likewise, Duensing also exhibited some bulldog-like tenacity when painted into a corner last season:

Brian Duensing’s Battle Tendency (2010)
Category:	Selected Outings	MLB Average	Grade
% of runners who score:	18%	24%	A
% of 2-0, 2-1 & 3-ball counts ending in outs:	79%	67%	A-

(via MyInsideEdge.com)

With runners on base, Duensing was able to keep runners from scoring and when he fell behind hitters, he rarely let them off the hook and retired 79% of them.

Given these marks, mixed in with his traditional results of a low ERA and an enviable win-loss record, you can see why Ron Gardenhire tapped him as his third starter. However, the concern over those categories is that they tend not to be repeatable.  For example, Duensing’s 18% runners who score mark is also analyzed as left-on-base% at Fangraphs - measuring a pitcher’s ability to strand runner. This quirky video outlines the influences of the strand rate and that someone like Duensing, who had a vaunted 82% left-on-base%, will be vulnerable to regression.

Furthermore, while wowing everyone with his efficiency and his battle tendencies, Duensing did not impress so much in regards to opponents’ contact:

Brian Duensing’s Overall Effectiveness (2010)
Category:	Selected Outings	MLB Average	Grade
Well-hit average  (of AB’s):	.249	.203	C+
Well-hit average (of strikes):	.103	.075	C

(via MyInsideEdge.com)

In general, Duesning’s offerings, when put into play, were fairly well struck. The well-hit averages were not absurdly high, mind you, but enough to lend credence to the notion that Duensing’s miniscule batting average on balls in play in 2010 is likely to change routes next season. Along those same lines, as I discussed last month, right-handers have slapped him around a bit more and with an increased exposure to opposite-handed hitters, Duensing will likely see some of those numbers inflate to some extent.

Additionally, as impressive as his 7-2 record was as a starter last year, some of that has to be attributed to a substantial amount of offense provided by his lineup. His 5.67 runs per start – the 12th-highest in the AL with a minimum of 70 innings pitched - gave him an ample cushion in which to pitch in, much more so than the league-average of 4.45 runs per game. Given that his runs per start will decrease toward the league average and his penchant for allowing runs will increase some, there will be the likelihood of more marks in the loss column in 2011.

Based on the level Duensing has produced at, it imposes an unreasonable expectations for his future production when considering some factors like his miniscule batting average on balls in play and astronomically high left-on-base rate. Of course, none of this means that he shouldn’t be in the rotation –after all, he has not allowed many home runs and has kept opponents off-balanced enough to get them to drive the ball into the ground - it’s just a friendly reminder for people to keep their vaunted expectations in check. If the defense behind him can convert, he’s likely headed for an ERA closer 4.00 which, all things considered, is not a terrible rate. 

Why you should take notice of Kyle Gibson

While Tsuyoshi Nishioka may be the center of attention among the position players in Fort Myers, pitcher Kyle Gibson is certainly gaining notoriety because of his stuff on the mound.

For the past few days, the wires have been abuzz over the hurler. Players have attested to his remarkable repertoire, coaches have fallen in love with his makeup and attitude and the on-looking media members have been wowed by all of the above. Judging from those reports, it is no small wonder why Baseball America selected Gibson as the organization’s top prospect or why they think he’s number 34 on the nation’s Top 100 list.

To me, what is really significant about Gibson’s potential and progress is that not only is he tough on same-sided opponents but he has an ability to neutralize left-handed hitters, often a difficult task for right-handed pitchers.

For example, Jason Kubel, a career .282/.343/.497 left-handed hitter against right-handed pitching, raved about Gibson’s stuff:

"He has a lot of good movement. But what really impressed me when I faced him the other day is that he keeps everything down. It sinks a lot. I don't think I saw one pitch over the knees, and I don't think I saw one over the knees the one time I went down there to face him last year. So he keeps the ball down and makes it all look the same. He makes it really tough on a hitter."

Usually, this isn’t the case. Right-handed pitchers regularly struggle with left-handed opponents as lefties typically see the ball longer and do not have to face the pitcher’s breaking stuff (pitchers are reluctant to throw sliders and curves to opposite-handed hitters). This means with more fastballs in their diets lefties tend to elevate the ball better on right-handers (and vice versa). This is why most pitchers have significant platoon splits. Gibson, however, appears not to follow that trend.

Let’s take a look into why Gibson can keep lefties from hitting him hard.

Without much available in terms of comprehensive minor league split data – at least nothing substantial since MinorLeagueSplits.com closed shop, causing this stat nerd to cry a bit – what we are left with is a sampling of his numbers versus the two groups found at MiLB.com.

Unfortunately, MiLB.com, the official site for Minor League Baseball, provides limited information regarding a pitcher’s splits. What they offer is only the player’s splits at the most recent level of baseball played. So in Gibson’s case, we are relegated to the results based on the 15.2 innings of work while with Rochester at the end of the year. What we do know is that when facing righties in the International League, Gibson carried a 1.25 groundout-to-fly out ratio. On the other hand, when taking on lefties, Gibson had a 1.50 groundout-to-flyout ratio suggesting that he was better at getting the southpaw swingers to beat his pitch into the ground.

Where the data fails us, visually, we can see how Gibson achieved those rates.

1500ESPN’s Phil Mackey, one of the biggest hustlers around the Twins camp and a must follow on Twitter, captured some very impressive footage of the big right-hander working to Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau in live batting. From the angle perched behind the catcher, Mackey gives us a unique glimpse of this spectacular movement.

The first clip is of Gibson facing Mauer. Here we see him deploy his two-seam fastball to the three-time batting champ: 

 

Gibson’s two-seamer, often referred to a sinker because of the movement, displays outstanding action. As LaVelle described on Sunday, Gibson can “throw at a lefthanded hitter's hip and watch it break toward the inside corner.” Without question, the instance above is a prime example of LaVelle’s description: As the ball leaves Gibson’s hand it appears to be heading into to Mauer’s belt but halfway home, it starts pulling back towards the plate and finishes low-and-in.

Needless to say, that is a two-seamer with some vicious movement. If a hitter attempted to put that particular pitch in play, it would likely incite a groundball to the right side or perhaps splinter his bat.

In this second clip against Morneau, Gibson tosses his change-up (his secondary pitch against lefties that Seth Stohs’ Twins Prospect Handbook 2011 notes is “above-average”):

 

Like real estate, pitching is all about location, location, location.

With the same arm action as his fastball, Gibson releases a change-up that falls away from the hitter on the outer-half of the plate, down in the zone. In the 2010 Hardball Times Annual, Dave Allen examined how pitch types and their location factor into the success of a particular pitch. What Allen’s research found was that change-ups “are generally successful on the outside edge of the plate or low in the strike zone.” With that in mind, had Morneau offered at the pitch, the likely result would not inflict any damage.

So what we can see in the two-pitch example is a microcosm of why Gibson is so effective against left-handed hitters. In addition to their outstanding movement, a left-handed hitter has to be cognizant of the inside fastball, they also have to be mindful of the change-up away – both of which Gibson has been spotting down in the zone. Given the fact that he can alternate these two pitches effectively, groundballs are manufactured.

Although the rotation is a little cramped right now however with the Twins still entertaining the notion of trading Francisco Liriano and the health concerns lingering for Scott Baker, it’s not hard to believe Gibson’s arrival to Minnesota is imminent.  

Will Cuddyer heed his own advice?

When Michael Cuddyer unveiled the team’s new t-shirts with the slogan “Don’t Be Denied”, even though his intention was to motive his teammates through the first round of the playoffs, it’s hard not to imagine that he might have been directing that message at himself too.

A year ago at spring camp, Harmon Killebrew was calling him one of the most powerful hitters on the roster. Considering Cuddyer had just come off of a campaign of hitting 32 home runs, launching 13 of those as “No Doubters which left little question that they would have been out at every ballpark league-wide, it’s not hard to see why Killebrew liked Cuddyer’s power so much. Despite the Killer’s confidence, Cuddyer’s total dissipated to a mere 14 home runs, touching only four of those for No Doubters.

This raised plenty of questions as to where the power had gone.

David Pinto of BaseballAnalytics.org recently took the opportunity to look at the difference between the two seasons and found little variance in opposing pitchers approach to Cuddyer. What his research revealed was a sizeable decrease in power generated from pitches in the middle of the zone.

Inside Edge’s data confirms this. In 2009, Cuddyer exercised a .218 well-hit average on his swing on pitches in the middle of the zone (vertical), considerably better than the league-average of .179. This wound up being the 16th-highest total in baseball that year. That rating would fall precipitously this past year as he posted a .176 well-hit average on his swings for pitches in the middle of the zone, falling all the way to 91st.

If pitchers were not approaching him differently, why did Cuddyer suddenly become anemic to pitches down the heart of the plate? While it is easy to blame the influences of the new stadium, but as Pinto pointed out Cuddyer’s power vanished on the road as well. More likely, the culprit in the case of the missing power can be traced back to his sore knee.

As I mentioned in October a sore right knee could impact his mechanics - certainly causing one to shift weight off of the back leg much sooner than desired in efforts to protect said knee and resulting a diminished capacity to drive the ball. Analyzing his batted ball numbers for the season, we see that as the year progressed, so too did his groundball tendencies. Without being able to lift the ball off the ground, it’s extremely difficult to hit a home run.   

Along the same lines, the knee also likely impeded his ability to pull the ball with authority. Two years ago, when Cuddyer muscled out 32 home runs, he did so because of his ability to turn on the ball with sheer brute force. That year, he amassed a .816 slugging percentage when pulling the pitch to left while dropping off 24 of those 32 home runs into the left field bleachers. This past season, his slugging percentage when pulling the ball dropped to .564 – his lowest total since his injured season of ’08.

Part of the reason the numbers decreased so much was because Cuddyer did not elevate the ball to left field as well as he did in the past:

 

Cuddyer’s batted balls/slugging to left field
	GB%	SLG%
2010	68.6%	.564
2009	56.5%	.816
2008*	64.3%	.500
2007	58.2%	.692
2006	56.2%	.667

 

Cuddyer’s 68.6% groundball rate rates among the league’s more elite slap-hitting, speed machines. The only power hitter to record a higher groundball rate when pulling the ball was the Yankees’ Alex Rodriguez. What A-Rod lacked in pull power, he made up for fishing in dead center as he tagged 12 of his home runs in that direction.

While it is still early in the spring, there are already signs that Cuddyer’s knee may be healing. According to one report, Cuddyer was putting on a display in batting practice, purportedly launching shots far over the left field fence – not unlike his performance in 2009. However, keep in mind spring training is often like being sent to celebrity rehab, many players make strides only to relapse later on.

In order to be successful, Cuddyer needs to regain that edge for turning on a pitch and putting some air beneath it. Not only because Target Field is unforgiving to hitters heading towards center and right-center, but because he has proven he can make pitchers regret working middle-in.