A Handful of Predictions for 2011

Seeing as that this new year is just three days old and we are still a month away from pitchers and catchers flying down to the warmer climate to trot off their holiday weight, it is probably very premature to make these predictions. Even so, in no particular order, here are four things I expect to happen in the 2011 season:

Denard Span will be on base more.

After posting his career low on-base percentage in 2010 (.331), the Twins center fielder should be primed to rejuvenate that mark this year.

When pitchers adjusted to Span’s patient approach by buzzing strikes in on the first pitch more frequently, the left-handed lead-off man was often put in debt in the count. This led to fewer walks overall as his rate decreased for the second straight season, lowering from 10.4% to 8.5%. Nevertheless, because of his keen eye at the plate (his 18.5% out-of-zone chase rate is the fifth-lowest in baseball since 2009) and his ability to make contact (90.9% contract rate since ’09, seventh-highest), Span will continue to exercise judicious decision-making in the batter’s box moving forward.

But that wasn’t the only factor towards his reduced on-base percentage.

Span, a habitual line drive/groundball hitter, witnessed his batting average on those balls diminish greatly in 2010. Since more of his batted balls went to gloves in 2010, Span had a fair share of hits taken away from his totals and thus decreasing his on-base percentage.

Batting Average on Balls In Play	2009	2010	Career
Groundballs	.287	.223	.254
Line Drives	.763	.677	.701

In all, this led to a 59-point decrease in his batting average on balls in play, significantly influence his overall numbers. Part of this BABIP decline may have to do with his minor yet potentially impactful alteration with his hand position, bringing the bat closer to his body at the beginning of the year. This led to an inordinate amount of grounders in the season’s first-half. Later in the year, it appeared that Span was getting his hands further away from his body, resulting in more line drives as the season progressed.

As noted above, Span maintains terrific plate discipline skills. Likewise, because of his ability to utilize the spacious center field area at Target Field with a high percentage of line drives, Span is poised to be the catalyst at the top of the order that the Twins envisioned when they signed him to a long-term deal.

Danny Valencia will encounter the proverbial “sophomore slump”.

This one isn’t that hard to foresee. After all, his batting average on balls in play was at an inflated .345 – a hearty fifty points higher than the league average. But that’s not the reason that I anticipate some decline in his numbers.

Often, communication and scouting reports move at various speeds throughout the league. Someone who can’t handle breaking pitches might be discovered immediately and word spreads like wildfire. Other times, certain holes and tendencies are not exposed until after the season. Take Denard Span for example. It took nearly two years for teams to pepper the strike zone early in the count in order to put Span at a disadvantage and it kept him off the bases in 2010.

In Valencia’s case as the 2010 season progressed it became clear that, while demonstrating great plate coverage, he had a soft spot in the zone: down and in.

 Whereas the 2010 season was a dance of trial-and-error for opponents when facing Valencia, as this information gets disseminated through the league, teams will attempt to exploit this weakness while avoiding his strengths in 2011.

Of course, this doesn’t automatically mean Valencia will have a down year, just that he will struggle more this coming season. To be sure, the Twins third baseman has shown that he is a monster when it comes to hitting up and out over the plate. In fact, according to Inside Edge his .203 well-hit average on pitches up in the zone was the second-best in baseball behind teammate Joe Mauer. Unlike some overeager rookies who tend to yank that pitch, Valencia uses the “big part” of the field – hitting 21.3% of balls in play to center field.

Jim Hoey will have a Grant Balfour circa-2008 emergence for the Twins.

Okay, this one is not based on anything remotely scientific, but bear with me on this.

Both Hoey and Balfour are cut from the power-pitching ilk, born from the same lineage that loves lighting up radar guns. Likewise, both had various arm injuries sidetracking promising careers. Balfour required Tommy John surgery in 2005 at the age of 27 while Hoey had his foray with Tommy John in 2004 at 21 years old. More recently, while attempting to correct his career path, a tear in his labrum required additional surgery for Hoey.

In Balfour’s case, the Twins decided to cut ties with the right-handed Aussie after the 2005 season, shortly after his date with the surgeon. He would sign a minor league deal with the Reds only to be selected off the waivers by the Brewers at the end of the ’06 season and rehab in their system. Before being called to Milwaukee, the Brewers shipped Balfour to Tampa for Seth McClung in the middle of the ’07 season. It was there with the Rays in ’08 that Balfour regained his health. That year, Balfour, tossing a 94.6-mph fastball, carved through opponents, striking out 82 in 58.1 innings of work and leading to a very impressive 1.54 ERA.

The savvy Rays front office targeted a talented yet damaged product and received an amazing value as Balfour has become an integral part of the Tampa bullpen the past three seasons.

Minor League Comp.	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
G. Balfour	10.1	3.4	0.6
J. Hoey	10.3	4.4	0.5

Many skeptics question Hoey’s control, particularly given his walk rate in the last two seasons. Certainly, his 5.9 walks per nine innings is un-Twins-like however this is more likely a byproduct of his recovery from labrum surgery as prior to that Hoey averaged just 2.5 walks per nine innings. Like Tommy John, recovering from labrum surgery can be a long, tedious process. Fans may recall Jesse Crain’s road back after a similar surgery in 2007 in which he didn’t appear fully recovered until the second-half of the 2009 season.

If the Twins coaching staff can help him regain his control this spring, Hoey could be a big contributor in the bullpen this coming season and beyond.

Scott Baker will be the second-best pitcher in the rotation.

I know what you are thinking, “If that is true, the 2011 season ended up being an unmitigated disaster”, but hang on. Scott Baker is actually much better than advertised.

Since 2008, Baker has held one of baseball best strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.39 K/BB, 11th-best), showing both the ability to avoid walking hitters and striking them out when necessary. These are the foundations of a very good starter: No walks, high amount of strikeouts.

Of course, that is just a part of the pitching equation, the other part happens when hitters put the ball into play.

Because he likes to work up in the zone and above it, hitters find it easy to get underneath Baker’s offerings. This is why he is a predominately fly ball-type pitcher. This is not a problem in and of itself but there were two factors that influenced his season in 2010.

In 2008 and 2009, Baker had an outfield defense that had both Carlos Gomez and Denard Span behind him. This past year, with Gomez gone, not only did Baker have Delmon Young and Michael Cuddyer covering more real estate in Target Field, when Justin Morneau’s season-ending concussion required Cuddyer to relocate to first it was Jason Kubel who was pressed into duties in right field, further diluting the defensive talent.

This means that more balls found grass and shot gaps than in previous seasons:

	BABIP on Fly Balls
2010	.198
2009	.139
2008	.119

To compound the problem, in the middle of the season, Baker revealed that he was having tendonitis issues in his elbow. It was this that likely caused him to drop his release point. With the lowered release point, we see flattening of his fastball and some loss of command in the zone leading to more hard hit balls.

If Morneau returns from the concussion and Cuddyer able to return to his normal position, this should improve Baker’s outfield defense over the assortment at the end of last sesaon. (Of course, platooning in the speedy Jason Repko in Baker’s starts would be an ideal alignment.)  Likewise, since he opted to have a minor procedure in the offseason to correct his elbow issue, Baker will likely return to his pre-tendonitis release point where he had much better command. Together, this should reduce the amount of hits surrendered and leave the 29-year-old righty with his low walk, high strikeout stuff. 

Taking Advantage of Target Field

Perhaps the biggest Twins event of 2010 was the opening of the new downtown ballpark. With much fanfare and hype, Minnesota baseball returned to the natural environments.

However, after the first full season not everyone had rave reviews about the newly constructed baseball cathedral. The field drew criticisms from members of the offense that the park was unfair and deflating their power totals. In November, Justin Morneau even implored via email to the Star Tribune beat writers that the Twins should consider altering the confines:

"Right-center to left-center is ridiculous. It's] almost impossible for a righthanded hitter to [homer to the] opposite field and very difficult for lefties. It affects the hitters a lot, and you start to develop bad habits as a hitter when you feel like you can only pull the ball to hit it over the fence. You take those habits on the road."

Because of the wall height, distance, temperature and wind patterns, the field in its first season deterred plenty of would-be home runs back on to the field. Nowhere was this more prevalent than in the area Morneau noted. Michael Cuddyer, who had hit nine home runs to center and right-center at the Metrodome in 2009, was able to reach those seats just once in 2010. Likewise, Jason Kubel hit 10 home runs in center and right-center at the Metrodome in ’09 but just two this past season.

In the recently released Hardball Times Annual 2011, Greg Rybarczyk, operator of the seminal site HitTrackerOnline.com which tracks “true” distances of the league’s home runs, published what he considered the “Ultimate Home Run Park Factors”.

For those unfamiliar with the metric, Park Factors measures the influence of a ballpark’s configuration that may increase or decrease the possibility of offense in comparison to other parks across baseball. By ESPN.com’s account, Target Field finished dead last when it came to home runs. Although ESPN.com has been carrying this number for years on their website unlike Rybarczyk’s totals, the World Wide Sports Leader’s website does not include wind patterns and temperature into their equation.

Rybarczyk’s research revealed that, thanks to the extremely inviting Crawford Boxes down the left field line, the Houston Astros’ home ballpark, Minute Maid Park, was the easiest field to hit a home run at (especially if you were a right-handed pull hitter) with an overall Home Run Park Factor of 119. Conversely, based on the distance and size of the walls (16 feet high around), Citi Field in Queens was considered the most difficult venue to book a round-trip vacation at with an overall Home Run Park Factor of 70.

Probably to the surprise of Morneau and company, Rybarczyk’s findings showed that Target Field’s overall Home Run Park Factor was 96, ranking 16th out of 32 possible major league stadiums. This is an astonishingly neutral result:

“True” Home Run Park Factors	LF	LCF	CF	RCF	RF	Total
Target Field	96	104	98	103	84	96
Average	97	97	97	97	97	97

(via Hardball Times Annual 2011)

What we find, based on Rybarczyk’s conclusions, is that Target Field isn’t all that daunting after all. Certainly from the alley-to-alley the field is a bit home run resistant, but in general, the corners are favorable (right field is a particularly alluring spot for left-handed sluggers who pull the ball) and the ballpark rated out as a field that slightly favors hitters. In short, hitters like Cuddyer, Kubel and Morneau may struggle at times to vacate the field in center and right-center, but they will also be rewarded if they pull the ball a bit more.

While Morneau stated his concern that the home configurations would ultimately affect how players hit on the road, Delmon Young was one player who recognized that this wasn’t a bad thing. After posting a .576 slugging percentage with 7 home runs while pulling the ball in ’09, Young demonstrated much better pop by knocking out 17 home runs to left while slugging a much more robust .846 when pulling the ball. Without much alteration to their approach, Cuddyer and Kubel might be able to mirror Young’s success.

If you are in charge of the team-building for the Twins, what this means is that your ideal free agent acquisition is either a (1) dead-pull hitter to either field or (2) a line drive hitter to center/alleys (fly balls will likely just die in the wind). If you are targeting a free agent who has a majority of their home runs to the alleys or center field, that player is probably going to witness a significant drop in power. This means that someone like Derrek Lee, who has hit nine of his 19 home runs to center, right-center and right, would likely not replicate that total in a Twins uniform. Meanwhile, someone like Vladimir Guerrero, who pulled 23 of his 29 home runs in ’10, would likely have a better chance of having his power numbers remain static.

To be sure, despite the neutral results in ’10, Rybarczyk also acknowledges that Target Field may wind up playing more towards the pitcher in the future but, at the same time, the field should not finish dead last like ESPN.com’s Park Factors suggests:

“Target Field is a fair park if you consider only the field dimensions, but the cool temperatures will shave some distance off most homers hit in the Twins’ new park. I suspect that after an adjustment period, home runs will settle in at Target Field at a level around 90 overall, based on the fence layout and the early and late-season temperatures.”

In the end, the Twins will simply have to learn how to cope with their surroundings. In terms of offense, either hitters need to attempt to pull the ball more if they want the extravagant home run totals or look to capitalize on the spacious alleyways if they can settle for the home run’s less sexy cousin, the double. Delmon Young made some adjustments and it served him well, leading to a team-high 25 doubles at home. Similarly, Danny Valenica, a line drive machine to center field, hit .386 at Target Field by shooting gaps. These success stories can be emulated.

By focusing on playing to the field’s strengths in 2011, the Twins will be able to produce a distinct home field advantage.  

Protecting the midsection

In the newly released Hardball Times Annual 2011, Baseball Info Solution’s John Dewan presented his yearly review of team defense based on his Plus/Minus system. Perhaps a little surprising, the speedy Oakland Athletics (+77) paced baseball in this area. This is noteworthy because the Green and Gold held the 24th-worst spot in the rankings just one short season ago.

For their part, Oakland, who had already boasted supreme outfield coverage (procuring a +43 tally in this area), went to work improving their infield for the 2010 season. Shortstop Orlando Cabrera was blight on the defensive landscape, turning in a season in which he was -30 runs below average. Similarly, they employed Adam Kennedy as their everyday third baseman who was -5 runs below average. Across the diamond, they used the drug-addled remnants of Jason Giambi for 58 games (who had wasted his entire defense in front of congress apparently).

Realizing this bunch of aging fielders was not going to do the pitching staff any favors, the A’s began to make maneuvers. At the trade deadline in 2009, Billy Beane moved their defensive-less shortstop to the Twins and implemented the rangier Cliff Pennington as the starter.  A week later, the A’s granted Giambi his outright release. This allowed for a defensive-minded first baseman in Daric Barton to take over. Last January, Oakland tapped their outfield surplus to acquire third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff from the San Diego Padres. The only constant around the infield diamond between the ’09 and ’10 unit would be second baseman Mark Ellis.

Pennington gave the A’s a supreme defender at short, finishing with a +10 rating, seventh-best in the game. Meanwhile Barton was a +27 first baseman, the best in baseball and 13 runs better than the next closest player in Ike Davis. Perhaps because of maturity and dedication to his defensive craft or a statistical anomaly, Kouzmanoff improved his Plus/Minus totals from +7 with the Padres in ’09 to +20 in ’10 with the A’s.   

The moves provided an immediate upgrade to the defense and assisted in elevating Oakland’s pitching staff to one of the best in the American League. After allowing 4.70 runs per game and posting a below-average .682 defensive efficiency ratio, the next year the A’s had the American League’s best defensive efficiency ratio (.709) and allowed the fewest runs per game (3.86). Indeed, a significant portion of this improvement was associated with shoring up the infield defense.

The only other team to have such a dramatic improvement in that timeframe was none other than the Minnesota Twins.

After finishing baseball with the 23rd-worst Plus/Minus ratings with a -31 total, the Twins managed to climb their way into respectability, concluding the 2010 season with a +37 rating.

Minnesota Twins	Middle Infield	Corner Infield	Outfield	Total
2008	-13	-21	-8	-42
2009	-59	+17	+11	-31
2010	+36	+17	-16	+37

(via Hardball Times Annual 2011)

In the previous offseason, the Twins targeted their middle infield which had been the worst in all of baseball. Admittedly, the relocation from an artificial turf field to a natural one helps in slowing down some of the would-be hits at the Dome, the team also grabbed two of the best defenders at their position.

Like Oakland, the Twins realized that Orlando Cabrera was simply not an elite defender and quickly traded for Milwaukee’s J.J. Hardy at the conclusion of the 2009 season. As I wrote back in March, Hardy was destined to be a middle infield repairman for the Twins. While sidetracked by injuries that limited him to 858 defensive innings, Hardy was still +5 runs above average, good enough for tenth in baseball. Although members of the Twins organization indicate Hardy’s lack of foot speed played a critical role in his exodus from Minnesota, data suggests that Hardy’s range was outstanding the past three years, possibly due to his positioning and anticipation rather than his outright quickness.

Hardy’s middle infield mate, Orlando Hudson, was acquired in early February for a nominal one-year, $5 million dollar deal. Hudson’s long outstanding reputation as a defensive wiz, finishing in the top ten of Dewan’s Plus/Minus system five times in the past six seasons, lent itself well to the Twins way of baseball. To his end, Hudson provided the Twins with the best second baseman effort (+22) in the majors.

In all, the Hardy/Hudson combination helped the Twins move from a -59 team up-the-middle to a +36 team. This tandem made up for the defensive shortcomings exposed in the outfield when Jason Kubel was subjected to extended time wearing a glove. Now, with a similar outfield alignment projected in the 2011 season, the Twins have stripped down the infield combination that helped a pitching staff that transitioned from a fly ball one in ’09 (41% FB%) to a groundball one in ’10 (44.7% GB%).

Essentially, the Twins are making the gamble that the two birds in hand are not worth as much as the two birds in the bush.

For the majority of his career, Alexi Casilla’s defense has been questioned by both on-field and off-field representatives. In 2008, despite a fantastic .400 on-base percentage in the Grapefruit League, Casilla was sent back to Rochester because Ron Gardenhire was displeased by his “lack of attention to details” saying:

“He just seems to get really sloppy at second base, because of the short throw and (because) he doesn’t have to use his arm. He’s just got to really get a few things straightened out ... And that’s learning to get outs when you’re supposed to get outs, and get away from all the flashy stuff and get back to the basics of baseball, catching the ball and getting somebody out and using your feet and making good throws. He gets too flashy, thinks that he can do a lot of different things. We’re going to get him away from that.”

A year later, after claiming the starting second base spot in 2008, Casilla received a demotion in 2009 as he continued to display lapses on the field. After several fielding gaffes, the then-Twins second baseman failed to run out a pop fly – trotting to first with the bat in his hand.

He’s quick, with decent hands and a fairly strong arm yet his lackadaisical reputation precedes him. At the same time, there are plenty of indications that he could be a defensive upgrade over the very good incumbent Hardy.

In his small-sample size at short, Casilla managed to save +2 runs while turning 15 double plays in 17 opportunities (88% success rate). That double play rate is a good indication of great footwork, awareness and release. While Hardy has a very good arm, he only converted 55 double-plays in 101 opportunities (54.5%). Although Casilla’s pace isn’t likely going to stay up in the 80 percentile as his playing time increases if he stays at the 60-to-65%-range however he will remain in the top of the league as one of the best twin-killers at short. In the end, if he can keep his over-rambunctiousness under control while maintaining the focus that Twins management requires, he has the potential to perhaps be a superior groundball-stopper than Hardy (particularly if Hardy’s maladies continue in Baltimore and keep him off the field).

The other replacement, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, is even more of a mystery in terms of what he is capable of providing. A recipient of a Gold Glove in Japan, critics like to state that former Japanese convert Kaz Matsui also won several Gold Gloves at short before moving to the Mets where he was below average as a defender at short. This revelation got Matsui shifted to second where he was better suited.

Matsui, who recently signed back in Japan, had some advice for his inbound countryman. Matsui told Nishioka through the media that:

“(1) The effect natural grass has on defense at second base is small. Don’t have negative preconceptions. (2) Be careful about getting spiked during double plays (3) Gather data on batters with speed.”

Obviously, some of this advice can be interpreted as the issues that Matsui had when making his conversion to Major League Baseball. The first issue involving the natural grass versus artificial surfaces that are favored in Japan’s stadiums is of moderate concern. For one, the hops produced on the artificial surface winds up being much more “true” than that of real grass. You don’t wind up with divot holes in the base paths that kick worm-burners up like they do on a dirt surface. Likewise, balls that normal seem to accelerate on the fake green stuff is slowed by the longer grass. However, by Matsui’s experience, the grass factor had only a small effect on his game.

The second piece of advice is aimed at the fact that American players will go hard into second base to break a play up. This is not a tradition shared on the other side of the Pacific. To speculate, Matsui was probably surprised by how little amount of time he had to turn a double play and would likely rush his throws (he made 13 throwing errors in his first season). In the same vein, Matsui also demonstrated issues feeding a double play to his middle infield partner. His 29 double plays started were the fewest among qualified shortstops. Again, while it is pure speculation, it might be different approach in feeding a second baseman if there were less of a probability of him going ass-over-tea-kettle. For instance, a shortstop might not need to hasten a throw to the bag to give his partner additional time to pivot the relay before being barreled into by the runner.

The final word of advice from Matsui, “gather data on baserunners”, is fairly straight-forward. Unlike those that develop within the minor league system, Matsui had little experience educating himself on players in the majors. He was thrusted into a starting role without the proper knowledge of his opposition and, unlike someone like Cal Ripken who goes to great lengths preparing for each opponent Matsui was likely manning a demanding position cold-turkey (particularly when you factor in a language barrier). Either way, Matsui’s message to Nishioka is clear: Spend time learning the competition.  

Needless to say, dismantling one of the better middle infield defensive units in baseball can be frustrating and a painstaking process to watch. After all, the team had moved from the worst to the third best in just one winter. For some, it may be even more difficult to readily accept the unknown as well since Hardy and Hudson represented two of the more tangible commodities while embracing Casilla and Nishioka as improvements requires eschewing advanced defensive data.

Naturally, Casilla and Nishioka will be behind the curve when it comes to knowledge of the competition which Hardy and Hudson benefitted from. At the same time the new duo has better tools – particularly speed – which could provide a big advantage (at least the Twins are betting on that it does). A year from now, we will know if Casilla hit well enough or remain focused to lock down the position for an entire season. We will know if Nishioka heeded Matsui’s recommendation and become a key component in the Twins lineup.

Then again, it is entirely possible that the middle infield will regress back to pre-2010 numbers. Only time will tell.

Construction of Twins' bullpen has a blueprint

In 2010, with an average velocity of 94.7 miles per hour, the Chicago White Sox’s bullpen was the hardest throwing unit in all of baseball. This heat led to the highest strikeout rate among relievers in the American League (9.05 K/9) and one of the better overall bellpens. On Monday, they introduced their newest right-handed rifleman, Jesse Crain. 

Not all too surprising, during his introduction to the South Side, Chicago reporters immediately turned their attention to the team that had finished atop the division for two consecutive years. After all, the White Sox have failed to catch their rival and Crain had been an instrumental component in inflicting that damage. While donning a Twins uniform, the righty held the White Sox to a lowly .185 average against.  

The 29-year-old former Twin-turned-Sock has some enlightening words to say regarding his old employer’s future:

"As for the Twins, I’m not exactly sure what direction they’re going. They like to build from within, but with that said, I don’t know what they will do. There are a couple of prospects coming up, but they don’t have a lot of experience. It will definitely be interesting to see how it will play out. Losing me and [reliever Matt Guerrier to the Los Angeles Dodgers] will hurt them."

While some might interpret this statement from Crain brimming with brash overconfidence with a dash of cockiness, there is some obvious truth to his words. Considering that he and Guerrier combined to digest 30.4% (139 innings) of the Twins’ total relief innings last year, a vast majority of those in high leverage situations as well, Minnesota has a lot of innings to redistribute. And a lot of those arms anticipated to fill the void are chock full of uncertainty.

Internally, the team is banking on rapid resurgences from Joe Nathan (who likely will not be running at full-speed out of the gates) and Pat Neshek to replace those important innings. Without question, a healthy Nathan/Neshek can be an extremely formidable combination. Include Matt Capps in the mix and the later portion of the game appears accounted for – if all goes according to plan.

The concern is if either arm is unable to maintain the workload required of them, as Crain noted, the Twins have to turn to pitchers that lack experience. These arms included Alex Burnett and Anthony Slama, who have both sampled some MLB innings in 2010, Rob Delaney or Carlos Gutierrez. On paper and in theory, all of them have stuff capable of thriving in the bullpen it is just the matter of executing at the big league level.

Meanwhile, Crain continued to inform his new audience about the Twins financial mindset when it came to building the bullpen:

“The Twins weren’t looking to sign a guy for more than $3.5 million a year. They were out from the beginning, and we didn’t even negotiate with them. They have been smart with the way they do things, but we’ll see.”

Despite a deep reliever market, after the Tigers signed Joaquin Benoit prices suddenly inflated like negotiations were operating within the Argentinean economy. With every free agent anticipating a similar deal, the Twins were smart to remain idle allowing the more desperate teams can overpay in money and years. Crain was no different from his fellow relievers and the Twins realized this.

In general, outside of Joe Nathan, the Twins rarely make long-term, big money commitments to bullpen members. They certainly eschew bringing in free agent relievers for multiple years at an inflated cost. When building his bullpen the past several years, general manager Bill Smith has made small contract commitments (i.e., Luis Ayala, R.A. Dickey), shrewd trades (Jon Rauch) and promoted from within (Jose Mijares, Alex Burnett) while making seemingly insignificant but occasionally useful minor league signings (Bobby Keppel).

If you review this offseason to date, the Twins have followed a strikingly similar blueprint this winter. The Twins nabbed several minor league free agents this winter that could be relief contributors in the right-handed Eric Hacker and the left-handed Chuck James. Likewise, the J.J. Hardy trade brought in James Hoey, who, if able to get under control, could be an extremely effective strikeout artist for league minimum wage. Plus, the aforementioned Burnett or Slama could be names summoned from the ‘pen regularly as well. Obviously at this juncture the majority of brand name relievers are now off the market and the Twins may peel off an intriguing arm that didn’t merit multi-year deals before the winter is over.

For years, the bullpen has been one of the Twins’ biggest assets. Since ’06, they have had the American League’s lowest ERA (3.61), baseball’s lowest walk rate (3.14 BB/9), fewest losses (93) and allowed the fewest runs (1,061) -- thanks in part to the recently departed Crain and Guerrier. While they may not have the sexy strikeout rates or velocity like their Chicago opponents, the Twins have consistently built and re-built without needing to invest as many dollars or years. 

OtB Twins Notes

Having shown interest in acquiring uber-defender Brendan Ryan prior to his trade from St. Louis to Seattle, Buster Olney (via MLBTradeRumors.com) reports that Orlando Cabrera has interest in returning to the Twins as a potential back-up candidate to Tsuyoshi Nishioka and Alexi Casilla.

Of course, simply stating your interest in a team doesn’t necessarily mean that the interest is mutual. After all, Jose Canseco has spent the past month stating his request to play for former boss Sandy Alderson now with the Mets and has a snowball’s chance of finding himself back in baseball. But in Cabrera’s case, manager Ron Gardenhire had said that he would be interested in bringing Cabrera back to the Twins after his second-half stint with the team in ’09 to possibly play second base.  

The organization is clearly interested in adding to the depth in the infield, as evidence by the attempts to acquire Ryan. Whereas Ryan was a light-hitting mega-defender, Cabrera is a light-hitting marginal-defender.

When the Twins acquired Cabrera in the midst of the 2009 pennant race, the team was looking to “upgrade” their shortstop position. At the time, Brendan Harris and Nick Punto were splitting time patrolling the turf and were swinging rolled up newspapers for bats. Cabrera, fresh off a red-hot month of July in which he went 41-for-110 (.372 BA) with the A’s, drew the team’s attention. After shipping former first round pick Tyler Ladendorf, Cabrera continued to hit the ball well, batting .289 while slugging .430, but did not prove to be able to avoid outs with a empty .313 on-base percentage. Despite being far from impressive, this was significantly better production than what was offered previously.

Instead of bringing Cabrera back however, the Twins turned to J.J. Hardy quickly after the World Series ended. The younger Hardy was a much better fielder than Cabrera and, when healthy, much more capable of providing a potent bat in comparison to Cabrera’s flaccid offering. So, after showing much decline in terms of bat speed and range, Cabrera signed with the Cincinnati Reds in the winter and was their opening day shortstop. For the fourth straight year, Cabrera witnessed his on-base percentage decrease as did his overall numbers in spite of playing in a very hitter-friendly ballpark. Part of this regression was due to a significant drop in his line drive BABIP. While he sprayed liners at a very good 18.4% clip, he held a .649 BABIP on those, well below the baseball average of .714. So there is some indication that he could put up better offensive numbers in 2011.

Then there is the matter of his defense. While a very adapt shortstop when balls are hit at him, Cabrera has not been particularly mobile in his 30s. Nevertheless, outside of his brutal 2009 UZR season Cabrera has posted somewhat decent marks, holding a 4.5 UZR from 2008 to 2010, which is strikingly average among qualified shortstops in that time. Even though data suggests he’s average, the wisdom of the crowd doesn’t think too highly of his defense. In the past two seasons, the Fan Scouting Report has ranked him near the bottom of the league with a 52 overall score (Colorado’s Troy Tulowitzki rating the best with an 85 overall mark).  

Now at 36 years old and coming off one of his worst seasons in his career, Cabrera, who made $2.02 million in 2010, will likely be relegated to a utility role and a salary reduction. Plenty of teams lacking depth or a clear-cut starter might target Cabrera. The Twins appear to fit that exact mold as the recently signed Tsuyoshi Nishioka and Alexi Casilla is a tandem that screams “safety net” in the event either is injured or ineffective.

Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo believes that it will take a three-year, $36 million dollar deal to lock up Carl Pavano.

Cafardo wrote that column prior to the Zack Greinke-to-Milwaukee deal effectively eliminating one potential suitor in the process. That leaves Washington, Texas and the Twins as the front-runners to land Pavano and, all things being equal, this almost certainly gives the Twins the advantage and additional leverage in hopes of talking him down in years and price. The wild card, of course, is if either the Nationals or Rangers decide to increase their offers now that one more trade, Greinke, is now unavailable. Given Washington’s liberal agenda with their checkbook and Texas’s TV money rolling in, neither scenario is out of the question.

Many other analysts have gestured towards Pavano’s declining strikeout rate as an indicator that he is likely primed for regression – particularly his minuscule 4.3 K/9 innings in the season’s second-half – in addition to a drop in velocity (averaging only 89-mph on his fastball) and shakier command (hitting the strike zone just 44% of the time) in his five post-August starts. Certainly, his 221.2 inning workload possibly caught up with him.

That notwithstanding, Pavano demonstrated some excellent skills that could hint at a brighter future. The right-hander increased his groundball rate in 2010, raising it from 43.6% in ’09 to 51.2% in ’10. With the possibility of gaining a speedier middle infield (after all, that is the reason for going with Nishioka/Casilla over Hardy/Hudson), Pavano could have a few more of those gloved down. In Texas, where Elvis Andrus and Ian Kinsler provide rangy and fortified defense up the middle, Pavano clearly stands a chance of having one of his better seasons if he replicates that groundball rate. Of course, Pavano has reportedly recognized the value of calling Target Field his home rather than The Ballpark at Arlington as fly balls have the tendency to die in the voluminous outfield in Minneapolis. After all, Pavano allowed 16 home runs in 18 starts on the road versus just 8 home runs in 14 starts at home. As a consistent strike-thrower, there always exists the chance he’ll be taken deep.

Also, in the past two seasons, Pavano has exercised the best out-of-zone swing rate in baseball. His 34.1% mark represents the highest standard in the game for the most attempts incited at, essentially, bad balls. Other names directly below Pavano’s on that list include Shaun Marcum, Roy Halladay, Dan Haren and Francisco Liriano. By getting opponents to swing at pitches out of the zone, Pavano is likelier to have less hard contact.

As I wrote in November, despite the abundance of in-house talent, the Twins will find it difficult to replace Pavano in the rotation:

“The Twins realize that allowing Pavano to walk – with or without offering arbitration – means the rotation loses the starter that consumed the most innings for them. In addition to the sheer total of innings, he worked deep into the games, averaging 6.9 innings per start, saving an often overworked bullpen that was forced prematurely into active duty after numerous Kevin Slowey (5.5 innings per start, third-lowest in AL) and Scott Baker starts (5.8 innings per start). Furthermore, with the team’s rash of injuries and ineffectiveness in 2010, it would be difficult to have the utmost confidence that the in-house starters can pick up the slack Pavano would leave behind.”

Two years for Pavano is potentially the highest recommended duration for his contract. Anything beyond that is a risky investment. Even two years is a steep venture for a team like the Twins would have a finite amount of budgetary wiggle room in the next few seasons but as noted, the team likely needs his contributions in the short-term.

On Friday night, TwinsCentric-like fan blog at Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Bernie’s Crew, broke the story that the Brewers had acquired Zack Greinke and shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt for four prospects.

Numerous Twins fans held on to hope that the team was somehow piecing together an offer that would be able to woo the Royals’ front-line starter away from the club. It would be the Brewers, however, that would be able to get enough talent together to entice Kansas City’s GM Dayton Moore, to swap his best starter and garbage shortstop.

The Brewers gave up two under-25 starters in shortstop Alecido Escobar (who had supplanted J.J. Hardy as the starting shortstop) and outfielder Lorenzo Cain. Additionally, Milwaukee also gave up right-handed starters Jake Odorizzi (A) and the mercurial Jeremy Jeffress (MLB). Considering the depth of their system was already somewhat depleted before, the Brewers emptied the coffers to attempt a run while Prince Fielder was still under contract.

The Royals wound up with a decent mix of talent. The two position players as capable of starting this season with Escobar being a big upgrade defensively over Betancourt and Cain being a speedy, gap-hitter with to patrol the spacious Kauffman outfield. Baseball Prospectus’s Kevin Goldstein had indicated that Odorizzi could wind up being very similar of a pitcher to Greinke while Jeffress may eventually find himself in the bullpen where he can make better use of his triple-digit fastball.

1500ESPN.com’s Tom Pelissero tweeted that he had heard from a Twins source that they were interested in Greinke but the Royals refused to deal with their divisional adversary. It is hard to imagine, even if Kansas City was willing to listen to any Twins offers, that Minnesota could round up enough MLB-ready young talent to appease the Royals. Back in early November, an MLB executive told ESPN’s Jayson Stark that the Royals were looking to:

“(A) they would need to "win" the deal, (B) they would have to get the kind of four-for-one haul the Rangers got for Mark Teixeira to pull the trigger, (C) they need a bunch of "front-line, winning, quality players" in return, and (D) at least one of those players has to be a pitcher capable of turning into the next Zack Greinke in a couple of years.”

To that end, the Twins would have had to have little to offer. Delmon Young might be the best under-25 position player but even he is under club control for just two more seasons and stands to make a substantial amount more than his $2.6 million in 2010. While some of the prospects the Twins could have provided KC would possibly be a better haul in the long run, the Royals ultimately wound up with two players that can contribute immediately followed by two top flight pitchers that will be a part of the staff when other prospects like Eric Hosmer are the core of the team.