Batting Hardy second.

After attempting to keep Denard Span from having any children on Sunday night, Orlando Hudson has been MIA from the Twins lineup as his non-throwing wrist heals. On Tuesday, Hudson told the Star Tribune’s Joe Christensen that his wrist was feeling better, but said it would be “alright in a few days”, which means we could conceivably be graced with Hudson’s presence once again before this shortened work week ends.

Meanwhile, without his two-hitting mainstay, manager Ron Gardenhire has opted to go with shortstop JJ Hardy as the interim hitter in that spot. Unlike Hudson who has been adept at avoiding outs at this point, reaching safely in 37.7 percent of his plate appearances, Hardy has been one of the larger out-producers in the Twins’ stable. In fact, among those with at least 130 plate appearances thus far in the season, Hardy’s .283 on-base percentage is the 10th worst.

Needless to say, this is not the ideal conduit from Denard Span to Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, even if it is just a temporary solution. Outs, regardless of their productivity, are precious. Instead of simply shifting his order up one spot, thereby relocating Mauer and his lofty .392 on-base percentage into the two-slot while pushing Morneau up to the third spot where he can be guaranteed an at-bat in the first inning, which would be plausibly more efficient, the manager has injected his lineup with a heaping ton of vitamin Out.

Of course it is the manager’s preference to avoid the lefty-lefty-lefty combination in his batting order, which is where the right-handed stick in Hardy comes in. While Hardy’s bat plays second fiddle to his glove work, he has been an above-average hitting shortstop in his career and also comes with plenty of experience batting behind the leadoff hitter in Milwaukee. (Of course, Milwaukee is the same organization that continues to employ Carlos Gomez as their two-hitter in spite of a sub-.300 on-base percentage....so, yeah.) What likely makes him an appealing candidate to Gardenhire is that Hardy’s contact rate has been greatly improved since his mechanics have been altered:

 

Hardy’s contact:	Contact%	K%
2010	87.9	14.7
2009	80.7	20.5
2008	83.3	17.2

 

Bat control has long been one of the manager's key traits of a two-hitter.What may have also played a role in Gardenhire’s decision to use Hardy as the two-hitter is how similar the two middle infielders have handled the bat this year. Taking a look at their plate discipline, you can see that both have below average chase rates and above average contact rates:

 

Hardy v Hudson in 2010:	JJ	Orlando
O-Swing%	23.4	21.3
Z-Swing%	57.3	61.6
O-Contact%	71.7	75.9
Z-Contact%	94.0	92.0
Contact%	87.6	87.8

 

Naturally, Hudson’s overall totals have been much better thanks to batted ball numbers. His 24 percent line drive rate has led to a .339 BABIP while Hardy’s propensity for hitting grounders has driven down his totals thanks to a .143 BABIP on those wormburners. Likewise, Hudson has drawn walks in 9 percent of his plate appearances while Hardy has done so in just 6 percent, resulting in a greater deviation in their on-base percentages.

 

To be sure, Hudson should return to lineup in a matter of a few days and all offensive order should be restored and the discussion over the two-hitter strategy will be moot. The takeaway from this is that Hardy hasn’t been all that different from Hudson when you break it down to the brass tax. Both are marginal when it comes to drawing walks and Hudson has accelerated thanks to a very good line drive rate. If Hardy continues to exercise the same plate discipline has he has in the first two months of the season, we could witness solid production as the season continues along, regardless of where he hits in the order.

What is behind Nick Blackburn's improvement?

When April concluded, Nick Blackburn was struggling. Despite escaping the month with a respectable 1-1 record, the right-hander was splattered for a .653 slugging percentage thanks to 16 extra base hits including six home runs. In addition to the hard-hit balls, Blackburn was not the same precision-guided pitcher, often falling behind hitters and eventually walking them with a higher frequency then we have come to expect (eight walks in 23.2 innings). Surely this was not the same Nick Blackburn from a year ago but rather a doppelganger equipped with the same luxurious beard.

As the month concluded, Blackburn revealed that he was experiencing elbow discomfort, needed to tinker with his mechanics and then was sidelined for a family emergency for 10 days. When he returned, the tendinitis pain was gone and his mechanical kinks were ironed out. After his first start in the month, manager Ron Gardenhire told Sid Hartman that:

"We had the little issue where his mechanics were a little out of whack, and you know what, now he's fine. He's actually healthy and his mechanics are good again. We got his arm, got that little situation out of there, and he's throwing the ball really good. It's sinking again."

Whether it is the mechanical adjustment or just a healthy elbow, Blackburn has been a far better pitcher as of late. He is 5-0 with a 2.65 ERA in his five May starts, giving up just nine extra base hits and only five walks in 37.1 innings of work, making a resounding pitch for AL Pitcher of the Month.

Part of the reason behind this improvement appears to be his ability to avoid locating pitches in the mid-section of the strike zone:

As you can deduce from the graph above (which is a shot of his average pitch locations) of last night’s game, Blackburn worked the Yankee lineup consistently at or just off of the corners of the strike zone. Combined with changing speeds regularly, this kept a strong lineup off-balanced for the duration of the game.

Compare that graph to the following graph depicting Blackburn’s locations against the Chicago White Sox on April 11^th:

Blackburn’s offerings were clipping far too much of the plate, entering some Danger Zone air space. Predictably, the White Sox launched three home runs off of him in that game.

The tweaks and clean bill of health have allowed Blackburn to move pitches down in the zone and away from the middle of the plate, resulting in fewer hard-hit line drives and less long fly balls:

	Line Drive Pct	HR/FB%
April	22%	21.4%
May	13%	4.2%

 (via Fangraphs.com)

Because he is consistently near the strike zone, Blackburn will undoubtedly give up numerous hits. After all, his 94% contact rate as well as his 42% in-play rate is currently the highest in baseball. The trick for the Twins righty is to avoid the heavier contact that goes for extra bases. This means keeping his pitches on the edge of the zone as he did against the Yankees. If he can continue to do so, Blackburn should be able to provide the Twins with quality starts throughout the rest of the season.

Selectivity and connectivity propelling Morneau's monster start

Without question, Justin Morneau is off to the best start of his career. He has been hitting pitchers so hard that he is probably violating some aspect of the Geneva Convention.

 

What has made Morneau so good in 2010? Almost every ball that the Twins first baseman connects with is on a violent trajectory but at the same time he is making opposing pitchers labor in almost every plate appearance. Morneau told Sid Hartman that he was making a concerted effort to not press too hard in the batter’s box:  

 

"Right now I'm trying to be patient, take what they give me and not make something out of an at-bat that isn't there. With [Michael] Cuddyer, [Jim]Thome, [Delmon] Young and all of those guys in the lineup hitting behind me, I feel if I get on base they can hit a home run just as easily as me swinging at a bad pitch and blooping something in."

 

The numbers certainly confirm Morneau’s testament. Compared to past seasons, he’s shown schoolmarm-ish discipline. Now an established veteran of nearly a decade, Morneau has been selective on pitches both outside and inside the strike zone while keeping his bat on his shoulder more:

 

Morneau’s Plate Discipline:	OOZ swing%	IZ swing%	Overall swing%
2010	27.0	62.5	41.9
2009	29.4	72.5	48.9
2008	30.3	66.6	47.6

 

After chasing almost 30 percent of pitches out of the zone in 2008 and 2009, he’s trimmed the fat down to below the league’s average through almost two months of the season. Of course, pitchers have enabled this newfound discipline by pirouetting around the strike zone, attempting to avoid his heavy lumber by bending and changing speeds. In the past, a younger Morneau may have expanded the zone for the pitcher by reaching for an inferior pitch. This year’s model is swinging on his own terms which have translated to more favorable counts and a higher walk rate.

 

Likewise, the decision to throw fewer fastballs and even fewer strikes in general is presumably an attempt to tangle with the hitters down the order from Morneau rather than challenge the league’s best hitter. While the logic is sound in theory, in practice however this has been extremely advantageous for the Twins. First, this off-speed recourse has a rather nasty side-effect: Morneau is hitting it at a very good .392 clip with six of his 11 home runs coming off of non-fastball offerings. Secondly, the decision to pitch around Morneau has ultimately led to more runs. Coming into Sunday’s game, Morneau has been issued 33 free passes. On five of those occasions, he eventually scored.   

 

In addition to abstaining from the wayward pitches and embracing the higher dosage of off-speed stuff, Morneau has been increasingly particular about his in-zone pitches as well, taking more pitches for strikes. With this added quality-control, he has been able to hone in on his proverbial “pitch”. This has translated into more squarely hit balls.

 

Morneau’s batted balls:	Line Drive%	Ground Ball%	Fly Ball%
2010	23.9	25.6	50.4
Career	18.7	40.6	40.7

 

After beating the ball into the ground at a career 40 percent rate, he’s elevating it more this year – shooting more fly balls and line drives around the park instead of towards the turf. While one would like to see the grounders exchanged for line drives, as fly balls are typically the most frequent of the three to be converted into an out, Morneau has been exercising a fly ball BABIP nearly a 100 points higher than the league and his career average. Also, the depressed ground ball rate has also kept him from hitting into any double-plays in ’10 despite having baseball’s second-highest at-bats in double-play situations (48) behind teammate Michael Cuddyer (50).

 

Aside from the batted ball levels which may not be sustainable throughout the season’s duration and eventually regress back towards his career norms, clearly Morneau has implemented a sound approach at the plate and is capitalizing on it whenever he pulls the trigger. If the organization can refrain from wearing him out at the end of the year and keep him from his second-half swoon, Morneau could be a runaway for AL MVP.

Slowey slip, slidin' away?

Following yet another abridged start by Kevin Slowey on Monday in Toronto, Ron Gardenhire implored his marksman to throw to contact more. “That’s how he will get away from those 100-pitch, five inning performances,” Gardenhire said Monday night, “by making guys swing the bat.” In truth, opponents have been swinging just fine against the Twins righty. Slowey’s opposition is swinging at 48.8 percent of his pitches, well-above the 44.7 percent league-average.

 

Gardenhire continued by saying “[He needs to] pitch to contact better because he’s got great stuff and he can move the ball in and out. [He] just has to not try and be so fine and get them to hit the ball.” Likewise, contact does not see to be a problem for opposing batters either. According to Fangraphs.com, since ’08, Slowey’s swinging strike percentage has dropped from 8.6 to 7.7 to just 5.8 this year. His contact rate has jumped from 82.3 percent to 83.5 percent in ‘09 to his current 87.7 percent.

 

The Twins manager is correct in assuming Slowey has been too fine at his approach at the plate. As he has nibbled outside the zone more frequently this season, the right-hander has found himself behind hitters more often. In ’08 and ’09, opponents were in favorable counts 26 and 25 percent of the total plate appearances. This season, that percentage has increased to 32 percent. Seeing more favorable counts has led to more hittable pitches thus the higher contact rate.

 

But there’s more. Slowey’s not getting nearly the same movement on his pitches this year as he had up to this point in his career. Here is a view from above on Slowey’s pitch mix in 2010:

 

Compare that to what his assortment looked like in 2009:

 

 

Or to 2008:

 

 

In comparison to the two prior years, it is obvious that Slowey’s pitches in 2010 are flat and not experiencing the same type of movement. Furthermore, there is a glaring difference between several pitches in his repertoire, the most notable being his slider. In the previous two seasons, Slowey’s slider cut through the space in front of the plate from right-to-left and on average wound up outside of the strike zone.

 

Without the movement of the slider, Slowey has taken on heavy fire from right-handed opponents:

 

Vs RHB	LD%	K%	OPS
2010	27.5	12.2	.940
2009	18.6	18.4	.821
2008	16.4	16.5	.641

 

Aside from his fastball, Slowey turns to his slider nearly 20 percent of the time when dealing to righties. Whereas in past seasons when he was able to avoid hard contact and occasionally rack up a strikeout, same-sided opponents have feasted on his assortment.

 

Perhaps this is lingering effects of his off-season wrist injury. After all, in February Slowey remarked that his throwing wrist had a new sensation and wasn’t certain if it would ever feel the same again. The wrist is heavily utilized in pitching to put various spin on the ball hence moving it in different directions in the zone. Without spin and deflection, Slowey’s margin for error decreases that much more. 

Without question, Slowey deserves several more starts to find the right track. However, if he continues to exit in the fifth inning and further tax the bullpen, Brian Duensing is always available as a potential replacement.

****

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A different Delmon

As Delmon Young tore through pitching August onwards in 2009, the only accoutrement he was missing was a toned down approach at the plate: He drew just five walks in nearly 200 plate appearances. He was launching the ball all over the field but was still susceptible to hacking at it with total disregard for human life.  Of course, this was business-as-usual for Young, as he has been a low-walk, high-strikeout individual since, presumably, his inception.

Even though he completed the first month of the 2010 season with a less-than-stellar showing, posting a .222/.292/.381 batting line in 72 plate appearances, there were positives to dwell on. For instance, the undercurrent of that substandard line was 7 walks, a large quantity for someone who drew only 12 in 416 plate appearances in 2009. Then, the April showers gave way to May flowers as Young went ballistic on the baseball, hitting .419/.438/.677 in his 32 plate appearances and dropping line drives at a 21 percent clip.

Could this be the season Young final produces at his potential? There are several signs that it might:

	2010	2009	2008
Chase%	28%	40%	41%
InPlay%	33%	21%	24%
AVG on OOZ	.261	.168	.178
SLG on OOZ	.478	.202	.228

Via Inside Edge

Over the course of his three years in a Twins uniform, Young has clearly trimmed his tenacity towards stray pitches. In the past, he’s been a non-discriminating free-swinger, leading to just 47 free passes in 2008-2009. To this point, he’s withheld the lumber on those pitches that would normally elude him. Although he is still hacking at out-of-zone pitches at a rate higher than average, he’s increased his contact on the less-than-choice offerings, driving the ball rather than missing it altogether.

	2010	2009	2008
Non-Competitive Chase%	22%	35%	36%

Via MyInsideEdge.com

Young has also improved in his ability to refrain from swinging at non-competitive pitches (like those that are cruising at 32,000 feet). These are offerings that have just as much of a likelihood of smacking against the limestone backstop as they do the catcher’s mitt. In his first season as a Twin, Young swung at 36 percent of those types of pitches, the second-highest in baseball behind teammate Carlos Gomez. In the following season, despite whittling it down to 35 percent, he led all of baseball in this dubious honor. So far this season, Young has kept his overzealous tendencies in check, chasing after 22 percent of non-competitive pitches. Again, keeping his bat cemented to his shoulder leads to more walks and/or better pitches to drive as he slips into hitter’s counts.

	2010	2009	2008
K% in PA that reach two-strikes	26%	45%	36%

Via MyInsideEdge.com

In addition to his embargo on laughable pitches, Young has shown signs of life in otherwise terminal counts. After laying down and striking out in 45 percent of his plate appearances that bled into two-strike territory in 2009, the left fielder has struck out in just 26 percent of plate appearances that has reached two strikes in 2010 (much better than the league’s 35 percent average).  This battle tendency is part of the reason Young has been able to trim his strikeout rate in half.

If he can maintain this pace without relapsing for the season’s duration, Young could eventually reach that teeming potential that has been associated with him since his draft day. People often forget that at 24 years old, Young is at an age that most prospects begin to find their way into the majors. Admittedly, he’s demonstrated little in the way of plate discipline up to this point, but at the same time, he’s been give little opportunity to let it develop as he has been accelerated through the minor league system. Understandably, the season is still in its infancy so there is plenty of baseball remaining for things to go awry – after all, Young has not shown that he can sustain such discipline over an entire season – yet these are all strong indicators that he has progressed at the plate.