Monday, June 15, 2009

OtB Twins Notes (06.15.09)

Scott Baker's month of June has started off well for the righty.  In three starts, Baker is 2-0 with 23-to-1 strikeouts-to-walks in 22 innings of work.  One of the biggest trend differences for the Twins number one starters between this month and last is that Baker's is getting more chases on pitches out-of-zone (35.1 percent in June versus 29.8 percent in May) plus fewer balls being put into play on those swings (53.9 percent in June versus 70.2 percent in May).  In addition, Baker has seen his average fastball velocity increase from 90.6 to 91.7 in the two months, something that may stem from mechanical adjustments pitching coach Rick Anderson tried to implement.
 
Like everybody else, Patrick Reusse throws in his two cents regarding Delmon Young and how Young's prospect-hype-cum-professional-career-disappointment might mimic that of former Twins prospect David McCarty.  While in theory, the comp is good - two highly touted prospects unable to adapt at the major league level - however, the two players had wildly different developmental paths to the bigs.  As the collegiate-groom McCarty demonstrated progress in the discipline department prior to being advanced, high school draftee Young's plate approach dissipated at each subsequent level (K/BB ratio increased from 2.26 to 3.14 to 4.33 in consecutive years).  The Rays never allowed Young to fully collect himself prior to pushing the next level (a team that has 100-losses doesn't have that luxury).
 
Minnesota Twins fans certainly traveled well to Chicago to be able to worship at the baseball cathedral that is Wrigley Field this past weekend, however, not all baseball insiders feel the same about the facility.  White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen told Joe Cowley at the Chicago Sun-Times that "I puke every time I go there. I'm just being honest. If the Cubs fans don't like the way I talk about Wrigley Field ... I don't say anything about their fans, but Wrigley Field? They have to respect my opinion because that's the way I feel. A lot of great people are working there, the clubhouse people working there - I wish they had a better clubhouse, but besides that, it's exciting when the game starts. Of course it's exciting because that's one of the best, it's always crowded. But besides that, it's terrible.''
 
Alexi Casilla, who was send down to Rochester prior to the weekend, missed Sunday's game due to back problems reports the Rochester Democrat & Chronicle.  This back issue may have to do with a cross-country drive that Casilla went on.  Instead of rendezvousing with the team in Toledo, Casilla flew to the Twin Cities to drive his vehicle back to Rochester (a possible sign that he knew he was not returning to the Twins any time soon).  USA Today's Bob Nightengale noted that these kinds of demotions for players like Casilla are often wake-up calls to players that once thought to have had concrete roles at the Major League level but have a few shortcomings that need additional attention.
 
Sid Hartman believes that right-handed relief pitcher Rob Delaney might get the next call to Minnesota in search of another bullpen arm.  Since his promotion to Rochester, Delaney has struck out seven and walked just one in seven innings of work.  His 5.14 ERA is the product of a four runs outing.  Juan Morillo's has struck out 31 in 22.1 innings of work but has walked 15 in as many appearances.
 
Charley Walters would like the Twins to acquire another hometown hero, Robb Quinlan, from the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.  The statement is base on nothing specific (besides that he is a local yokel) and would provide the Twins with little-to-no value as a back-up first baseman/third baseman right-handed bat that never really hit lefties all that well (.295/.336/.449 in 587 PAs).  Wait.  Maybe the Walters was suggesting Quinlan for the bullpen...hmmm.
 
Jon Paul Morosi at Fox Sports says that scouts are giving Houston's shortstop Miguel Tejada rave reviews for his work this season.  Undoubtedly, Tejada will inevitably wind up being the hot trade topic this year because of his former MVP pedigree, it should be noted that his rebound power performance in 2009 is buttressed by a favorable home field condition.  His six home runs have all come at Minute Maid (albeit not all in the short left field porch) but the circumstances should dictate that all buyers' beware when acquiring the 35-year-old. 
 
Jeff Zerbiec of the Baltimore Sun says that the Twins, along with the Baltimore Orioles, are the top two teams interested in Dominican Republic shortstop Miguel Angel Sano.  Sano is just 16-years-old but has already drawn comparisons to Florida's superstar shortstop Hanley Ramirez.  Because of so many doctored birth certificates of prospects in the Dominican, one team actually ordered a bone graph which showed Sano is indeed between the ages of 16-and-17.  While the Twins have not been known as aggressive pursuers when it comes to high-priced International prospects, pursuit of Sano makes sense for an organization that does not have a significant pipeline of shortstop prospects - it wasn't until the 8th round of the 2009 draft when the Twins selected their first shortstop, James Dozier, out of Southern Miss.  The young shortstop is rumored to command at minimum a $3-million-dollar signing bonus (with 30 percent going to his handlers) but a large economic leap from his current tax bracket.       
 
Joe Gaetti is having a tough go at it this season.  After being traded by the Twins to the Rangers (where he played at Double-A Frisco), Gaetti stint in the Rangers organization lasted just nine games before being released.  Two weeks ago the son of former Twins third baseman Gary, signed with the Tampa Bay Rays and was assigned to the Montgomery Biscuits

Thursday, June 11, 2009

See you at Wrigley

 

 

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

I could do Shooter's job

Me (on Sunday): "One right-handed reliever that might be available at the trade deadline is former Twins and current Astro LaTroy Hawkins, who has been filling in for the injured closer Jose Valverde who is returning to Houston shortly.  The Twins flirted with the idea of acquiring Hawkins last year and since his trade to Houston, Hawkins is 3-2 with a 1.41 ERA while throwing over 44 innings and striking out 47 and coverting eight saves."  
 
Charley Walters (on Wednesday): "Don't be surprised if the Twins make a deal with the Houston Astros soon for former Twins reliever LaTroy Hawkins. The Twins are seriously interested and the Astros are in last place in their division, making the 36-year-old right-hander expendable. It also doesn't hurt that Hawkins, who is popular in the clubhouse and whose fastball is still in the 95-mph range, could cost Minnesota just $2.3 million for the rest of the season. His salary this season is $3.5 million. In 26 games for Houston, Hawkins is 1-2 with a 2.55 earned-run average and 23 strikeouts in 24 2/3 innings. He has eight saves in nine opportunities since taking over as the Astros' closer for the injured Jose Valverde."
 
I should have added "seriously interested" in my write up.  Damn. 
 

Tuesday, June 09, 2009

Mauer and the fastball

Baseball analysts league-wide, attempting to do what they are paid to do, are throwing in their two cents trying to explain Joe Mauer's sudden home run capabilities and an .845 slugging percentage. 
 
FSNorth's Ron Coomer told MinnPost's Pat Borzi that the power explosion has to do Mauer correcting a "weak-side drift" in his swing - that his front hip had the tendency to move forward right before swinging.  This correction has allowed Mauer to have a more balanced and loaded stride, generating additional power in his swings.  On another recent broadcast, FSNorth's other analyst Roy Smalley noted that Mauer's swing has a definite shoulder drop which is leading to more lift on the ball, hence more balls disappearing into the left field seats instead of landing as a double.  Both sideline reporters had submitted video evidence comparing this year's swing to last year's version to support their claims.  The clips did support Coomer and Smalley's theory however comparing one solitary swing to one other lone swing reveals very little (had they rundown over 150 swings from last year to this year I would have put more stock into their assessments). Certainly any number of small minutia adjustments could have been made to his swing in this past offseason but Mauer more or less differed and said that "I don't think my swing has changed at all."
 
Perhaps there is something less physically involved in his surge.  By Mauer's own accounts, he says that he has been "seeing the ball better".  Consider this: Mauer is absolutely killing the fastball and, on top of that, he's getting a ton of them thrown his way. 
 
Mauer's early returns in 2009 shows that he is very capable of punishing a fastball -- hitting 11 of his 12 home runs on heaters.  Fangraphs.com, who added a statistic that provides the run aboove average value of each individual type of pitch, shows that at a 5.23 runs above average, Mauer leads all hitters per 100 pitches (min. 120 PA):
 

Player

Team

wFB/C

Joe Mauer

Twins

5.23

Luke Scott

Orioles

4.62

Albert Pujols

Cardinals

4.44

Kevin Youkilis

Red Sox

4.24

Victor Martinez

Indians

4.14

 
These numbers are just another way of saying that these guys are good fastball hitters.  A few states south of Minnesota, Albert Pujols (.346/.470/.698) is demolishing the rawhide in the same vein yet Pujols only sees 53 percent of balls thrown at him as fastballs.  Likewise, Boston's Kevin Youkilis (.349/.470/.631), another hitter renown for his batting eye, and is now seeing just 54 percent of his pitches as fastballs thanks to a 4.24 wFB/C.  Cleveland's Victor Martinez (.344/.412/.555), like Youk and Prince Albert, has also seen his fastball offerings drop to the 54 percent range.  Mauer, on the other hand, has received nearly 70 percent (67.1%) of pitches thrown to him of the fastball variety.  This is a rather rotund amount considering the quality of hitter that is Joe Mauer. 
 
Look at this list of the hitters receiving the most fastballs by percentage.  Those who are getting high percentages of fastballs are of the slap-hitting, high-contact pedigree and offer very little of a power threat:   
 

Player

Team

Fastball %

Isolated Power Average

David Eckstein

Padres

75.30

.071

Luis Castillo

Mets

73.70

.056

Chone Figgins

Angels

72.80

.066

Placido Polanco

Tigers

70.40

.103

Jacoby Ellsbury

Red Sox

70.00

.068


In a lot of ways, Mauer shares similar characteristics to those on the list (unlikely to chase pitches, low strikeouts, etc) which merits a fastballs but at the same time Mauer's .405 ISOP has little in common with Placido Polanco's .103 ISOP.  The Tigers second baseman has not be able to generate any scoring when facing a fastball as evident of his -0.97 wFB/C, giving pitchers the impression that more fastballs will equal greater success against Polanco. 
 
Mauer's power surge may have to do with a greater influx of fastballs that are typically reserved for slap-happy hitters.  With a larger propensity to drive the ball for extra bases, pitching coaches will eventually instruct their pitchers to throw more offspeed and breaking pitches.  Mauer still has the ability to capitalize on what should be fewer fastballs in June but it probably means less of an opportunity to replicate his unearthly month of May.
 

 

Sunday, June 07, 2009

OtB Twins Notes (06.08.09)

Since his return from his bereavement leave on May 24th, Delmon Young is now 5-for-37 with 21 strikeouts and just one walk.  At Fangraphs.com, Dave Cameron asks "What To Do With Delmon" and his response is to manufacture a similar mysterious mental "injury" that befell Detroit's Dontrelle Willis and St. Louis's Khali Greene to allow the Twins to circumvent the waivers and allow Young some "rehab" work in the minors (to which Tim Marchman agrees). 
 
At Tenth Inning Stretch, Thryros presents one of the many problems with his swing - alignment.  This, to me, is a problem but it is a tree in a forest of problems for Young.  What he doesn't draw attention to, but clearly has plenty of visual evidence of, is that Young is unable to generate power from his lower half because of improper weight-shifting in his legs (look at the rear leg bend compared to that of the other sluggers).  He has very little leverage from below the waist.  Other issues include his loading problem where his weight is shifted too far on his front foot prior to the pitcher releasing which leads to the need to start his swing earlier, resulting in poor pitch recognition (commits too early on breaking stuff and to many late swings on fastballs) and opposite field hits.  This is not a hit-your-way-out-of-it-funk, Young needs a complete rebuild.       
 
KFAN's Phil Mackey takes a look at Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano.  In his past three starts Baker is 2-1 but has thrown a very improved 21 innings with 20 strikeouts and just one walk.  Still, balls keep sneaking over the fence as he allowed five home runs in those starts.  Liriano on the other hand has to work on his offerings to right-handed opponents (who are slugging .531 off of him with nine of the ten home runs allowed) and while pitching from the stretch (hitters are slugging .590 when runners are on base). 
 
Twins left-handed reliever Sean Henn has never been known for his control, as he has walked 55 batters to 51 strikeouts in his major league career, but let's agree that the guy can deliver when it comes to downhome baseball quotes (insert your own Texas twang):  "I'm not a big control guy, so for me to try to hit a gnat's rear would be stupid.  Obviously, those walks correlate into runs. So I'm going back to what I did in the minors: trust in your stuff, hit the zone, let the seven guys behind you work for you. I feel like I'm throwing the ball over the plate more than I ever have."
 
I am a big believer that a baseball team can inflate the value of a relief pitcher by putting said pitcher in situations that best fit his strength.  Dennys Reyes was an excellent example of this in 2006 and Craig Breslow was another last season.  Henn could be another addition of the same ilk if deployed well situationally.  Henn's weakness is clearly throwing strikes to right-handed batters as 46 of his 55 career walks have comes against right-handed opponents (his three walks this year have all been against righties), yet in 2009 righties are just 1-for-13 (.077) - a possible affirmation for being effectively wild - while left-handed opponents are 5-for-13 (.385) with three doubles.  Speaking of Craig Breslow, the former Twins has held opponents to a .192 batting average in eight innings while strikeout eight and walking just one since being acquired by Oakland. 
 
Star Tribune's Patrick Reusse released this little nugget of a column regarding the hype around the Joe Mauer contract extension.  In not so many words, Reusse informs us that Mauer will either stay or go and essentially says "stop worrying about it, you hoople heads".  In addition to that, Reusse cropdusted a nice message to those of us that analyze numbers that we are "a small minority that think it's all about make-believe statistics."  With that in mind, Aaron Gleeman tells us that Mauer is leading the team in the make-believe statistic of Runs Above Replacement with 27. 
 
One right-handed reliever that might be available at the trade deadline is former Twins and current Astro LaTroy Hawkins, who has been filling in for the injured closer Jose Valverde who is returning to Houston shortly.  The Twins flirted with the idea of acquiring Hawkins last year and since his trade to Houston, Hawkins is 3-2 with a 1.41 ERA while throwing over 44 innings and striking out 47 and coverting eight saves.  
  
Cleveland Plain Dealer columnist Paul Hoynes discusses the transition away from the Metrodome and what it will mean to a team that has taken advantage of the quirky indoor home field moves outdoors.
 
Nick Nelson takes a jog around the very winnable AL Central. 
 
Twins GM Bill Smith spews out non-sensical jargon about "consistency" and the Pioneer Press's Charley Walters dedicates column space to it down.