Game: Twinks 6, Marinerds 5

Game: Twinks 6, Marinerds 5

Box Score

Win Probability

Recap

Record: 2-1

The Quote: "We worked on that play in Spring Training and I fouled it up the only time I tried it in a game. This was better." - Mariners reliever Chris Jakubauskas

 

Eff.

 

That must have been running through Twins' right fielder Michael Cuddyer's head as he tried in vein to reach back to second base ahead of the Mariners' pickoff attempt.  With a nonchalant flick of his glove, Mariners' catcher Kenji Johjima set the pickoff play in motion.  The 30-year-old rookie on the mound, Chris Jakubauskas, spun counterclockwise and fired a bullet to shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt who broke to the bag on Johjima's signal.  Cuddyer did everything he could to do, short of snapping his ankles, to redirect his weight back to his right.  Betancourt applied the tag and the Mariners vacated the field at the end of seven without any further damage done, down by just the one run.

 

Replaying that sitaution, it was one-part inspired and one-part crazy.  With Cuddyer on second after a two-out double, the Mariners decided to put Justin Morneau on first.  Intentionally walking Morneau was nothing new.  In 2008, Morneau was issued 16 free passes intentionally, tied with the Angels' Vladamir Guerrero for league lead.  With a two-run home run and a run-scoring double already on this game's resume (plus his one-hopper to Jose Lopez was sorched as well), the Mariners figured that Morneau was zeroed in on Wednesday night.  What was curious about the decision was that the Mariners were opting to pitch instead to the left-handed Jason Kubel.  Maybe not as dangerous as Morneau, Kubel was still 2-for-3 with a run-scoring double of his own.

 

The Mariners made the personnel decision in 2009 to begin the year with no left-handed options in the bullpen, so there was no possibility of a LOOGY to match-up against Kubel.  Jakubauskas, an alumni of the independent Pioneer League, was throwing fairly well, already retiring five straight Twins before Cuddyer's extra base hit.  While the Twins and the rest of the spectators were busy contemplating the thought-process behind the Mariners' actions, little did they know the Mariners were about to pull some tomfoolery out of their hats.

 

Yes, it was a low percentage-type play that had a strong likelihood of imploding in their face.  An errent Jakubauskas throw could have wound up in center field, allowing Cuddyer and Morneau the opportunity to advance.  At the very least, the play may not have worked at all, pressing the need to pitch to Kubel now with two men on base.  Still, the entire sequence was ingenious.  A rookie manager in Don Wakamatsu, who has no previous track record for other teams to note his tendencies, called for the play at the perfect moment.  Like a magician, Wakamatsu provided misdirection when he walked Morneau, placing the focus on Kubel.  Cuddyer meandered off second too far and too lackadaisically as he attempted to get his two-out lead from second.  When Jakaubauskas pivoted, Cuddyer was dead in the water. 

 

Fortunately for the Twins, Jesse Crain and Joe Nathan combined to shut down the Mariners in the eighth and ninth innings to keep the one-run lead intact and give the Twins their second victory of the year.

Award Context: Jim Perry's 1970 Cy Young Award

Signed as an amateur free agent in 1956 by the Indians out of Campbell University, the 6-foot-4 right-handed Jim Perry quickly worked his way to Cleveland as a 23-year-old in 1959.  Working as mostly a reliever and a part-time spot starter, Perry finished his first year 12-10 with a 2.65 ERA in 153 innings of work, finishing behind the Washington Senators' Bob Allison in the Rookie of the Year voting.  In his sophomore season, Perry would led the American League in wins (18), starts (36), shutouts (4) and home runs allowed (35) while tossing 261 1/3 innings for the Tribe.  This performance would earn him a spattering of MVP votes as the Indians finished 76-78 in 1960. 

 

Between 1961 and 1963, Perry's career would divest from its original tracks as he would go 22-29 in 417 1/3 innings of work, and watched his ERA bloat to 4.44 as his strikeout rate dipped to 3.5 per nine innings.  When the Twins acquired Jim Perry from the Cleveland Indians, they traded for a 27-year-old swingman that had promise but was mired with a franchise that continued to miss the .500 mark in the early 1960s.  Upon his arrival to Minnesota, two things differed and had an immediate impact on his results: offensive and defensive support. 

 

While a member of the Indians, the Tribe scored 3.92 runs per game.  After relocating to Minnesota, Perry's new team was scoring an average of 4.76 runs per game.  The Twins also provided Perry with far superior defense -- one that was 70 fielding runs above average compared to the Indians that would be 17 fielding runs in debt.  For a non-strikeout pitcher that is reliant on the eight other guys on the field, that was a huge advantage.  Because of this, from 1964 to 1969, Perry would go 65-36 in 226 starts, post an ERA of 2.72 and increase his strikeout rate to 5.5 per nine innings of work. 

 

In 1970 the Twins won their second AL West championship in as many years, going 98-64.  In 40 games, Perry would go 24-12 with a 3.04 ERA, tied for the league led in both wins and games started and eventually being named the Cy Young Award winner that season.  You could construct a strong argument that two Baltimore pitchers, Dave McNally and Mike Cuellar, were both as qualified for the award as Perry.  Cuellar, the fourth-place vote getter and 1969 co-Cy Young award winner, led the league in winning percentage (.750) and complete games (21).  Perry, however, topped Cuellar in several key categories:

 

• Perry's WHIP (1.130 - 2nd in AL) was superior to Cuellar's (1.149 - 4th in AL).
• Perry allowed fewer walks per nine innings (1.841 - 2nd in AL) than that of Cuellar (2.086 - 4th in AL)
• In spite of having fewer overall strikeouts, Perry had a better strikeout-to-walk ratio (2.947 - 2nd in AL) than Cuellar (2.754 - 4th in AL).

 

Even though both McNally and Cueller managed to replicated Perry's win total and starts (24 and 40) there total appears to be a byproduct of a potent Baltimore offense.  The Orioles scored the pair more than a run above league average (5.17 and 5.32, respectively) and, unlike McNally and Cuellar's 24 wins, Perry's two dozen appear far more genuine when you consider the Twins generated 4.47 runs per game when he was on the mound.  Furthermore, McNally (.697) and Cuellar's (.667) had higher OPS against than Perry (.643).  In this context, Perry's 24 victories is a much better total.

 

The one pitcher that had a legitimate complaint about the final voting is Cleveland's Sudden Sam McDowell.  From 1965 to 1969, McDowell had led the league in strikeouts every season except 1967 when Boston's Jim Lonborg beat him by ten total (and with two additional starts).  In 1970, the 27-year-old southpaw ended the year with a 20-12 record while playing for an Indians team that won 76 games.  McDowell's 305 innings, 304 strikeouts and 8.9 K/9 led all American League pitchers.  In addition to that, several other key statistics reveal that McDowell's overall season was better than Perry's:

 

• His ERA (2.92 - 5th in AL) was better, albeit slightly, than Perry's (3.03 - 8th in AL).
• McDowell gave up far fewer hits per nine innings (6.694 - 2nd in AL) than Perry (8.3).  
• He struck out (8.9 - 1st in AL) three more batters per nine innings than Perry (5.4). 
• McDowell averaged Game Scores of 63 while Perry averaged 56.
• McDowell had a lower OPS against (.619) than Perry (.643).  

 

McDowell would have the disadvantage of not only playing for an Indians team that not only gave him pitiful run support (4.05 runs of support per game below the league average of 4.17) but his team was 32 games behind in the division.  The Sporting News would agree with McDowell's case and name him the AL Pitcher of the Year in 1970.  But regardless of the method, voters rewarded Perry for his gaudy wins total to narrowly beat out Baltimore's Dave McNally and Mike Cuellar and Cleveland's Sam McDowell to give the Minnesota Twins their first Cy Young award winner. 

 

Also found at BaseballDigest.com.
 

The Notebook Dump (04.07.09)

Game: Twinks 1, Mariners 6

Box Score

Win Probability

Recap

Record: 0-1

The Quote: "I'm a little concerned. A little more than normal. I never go in the training room. I've never pulled a muscle, or anything." - Mike Redmond

 

The bright side about Mike Redmond's injury is that my piece on Drew Butera may suddenly be relevant again. 

 

Ken Griffey hit his 8th opening day home run and his 25th career home run at the Metrodome when he redirected a Francisco Liriano offering over the baggy.  If there is one person that will miss the Metrodome it will be Griff.  His 25 at the facility is Griffey's most at a stadium that wasn't his home field and his 41 total against the Twins is his most against any opponent. 

Joe Mauer's absence in the third spot exposes a large hole in the Twins offensive strategy that led to a potent run-scoring lineup in 2008.  In the top of the first, Denard Span walked and Alexi Casilla laced a single, putting runners on first and second with no outs.  Under these circumstances over the course of his career, Mauer has had 144 plate appearances and is 47-for-130 (.362 BA) with a 7.6% strikeout rate and grounding into 12 doubleplays.  Without the availability of Mauer, Ron Gardenhire opted to use Michael Cuddyer in the third spot.  There is plenty to like about the decision to use Cuddyer third but advancing runners is not his strong suit.  Cuddyer has had 211 plate appearances in those same conditions and is 52-for-191 (.278 BA) with a 20% strikeout rate and has been doubled up 20 times.  In this occasion, Cuddyer failed to advance Span and Casilla as he struck out (one of three on Monday).  Being able to advance Span and Casilla up one base would allow for Justin Morneau to bring in Span via sacrifice fly or both on a base hit and losing that ability will decrease the Twins scoring opportunities. 

 

Joe Christensen says that Denard Span looks like a natural out in left field.  Considering that the Twins' left field candidates last year combined for a UZR (ultimate zone rating) of -25.2 and left is the most expansive corner outfield at the Metrodome, having Span patrolling the landscape in front of the Home Run Porch will be a welcomed addition. 

 

Check out Geoff Baker's Seattle Time Mariners' blog throughout the series with the Twins.  Baker does a great job of providing updates and images throughout the series.

 

You sit around, trying to enjoy your beer on the plaza with a conveniently placed Twins World Champions banner behind you, eagerly awaiting the start of the 2009 season and - BAM! - someone snaps your picture and before you know it, it's posted on Yahoo!... 

 

If you are around your computer tonight, tune into Seth Stohs' podcast at 9 pm.  I'll be joining Seth who will be talking to Twins minor league pitcher Tom Stuifbergen (of Netherlands WBC fame). 

Twins Notes (Opening Day)

Oddsmakers are suggesting the Twins have a 20-to-1 shot at winning the World Series in 2009, placing them sixth on the list.  Up top are the Yankees (3-to-1), Cubs (11-to-2) and Red Sox (7-to-1) while pulling up the rear are the Nationals (100-to-1), Royals (100-to-1) and Pirates (150-to-1). 

 

Looking for a last minute ticket to the Twins home opener?  Charley Walters reports that "on-street ticket brokers" (also known as "scalpers") will be asking $30 for the upper deck cheap seats that retail for $8 to the soldout event.   

 

Tom Powers presents a less-than-flattering remembrance of the Metrodome on the eve of the 27th and final home opener under the Teflon sky, recalling sewage problems, rat infestations and overall terrible odor.  When speculating whether or not he will get nostalgic, Powers say "It's like the late, great sportswriter Dick Young said when asked for a comment on the death of Yankees catcher Thurman Munson that morning: 'Yesterday he was a (bleep). Today he is a dead (bleep).'"

 

On the other side of the river, Patrick Reusse reminds us of the unsightly sight-lines of the Dome that can be devastated by fans with the smallest of bladders.  Reusse also denounces the powers-that-be in the early 1980's that came up with the contraption to hide folded football seats, otherwise known as the Baggy (or Baggie, depending who you ask).  As rinky-dink as the entire operation is, the Baggy was the one feature that gave the Metrodome an identity.   

 

Kelsie Smith summarizes the current Twins sentiments regarding the Dome Field Advantage.  Smith points out that the advantage didn't always favor the Twins, recalling one situation in 2007 against the visiting Brewers.  The game start with Torii Hunter being struck by a Jeff Suppan pitch in the first and Ron Gardenhire was forced to replace his defensive stalwart with Lew Ford in center.  For his part, Ford had a good game at the plate, going 2-for-3 and driving in four runs.  His efforts in center, however, nearly cost the Twins the ballgame.  In the top of the ninth, with a comfortable 9-7 lead, Joe Nathan came on for the save.  His first opponent was the girthy Prince Fielder who launched a fly ball towards the ceiling in center.  Lew being Lew, sprinted in the opposite direction of where the ball was heading and Fielder chugged his way around the bases for an improbable inside-the-park home run.  The Brewers eventually tied the game up but the Twins were rescued by a Justin Morneau walk off home run.  

 

At STATS Blog, Thom Henninger inspects the Twins pitching staff's home/away split which reveals that at the Dome pitchers possessed a very solid ERA (3.27) while the numbers inflated nearly two runs on the road (5.10).  An explanation for the discrepancy isn't readily available either.  According to Baseball-Reference.com's new fielding page, the Twins were actually worse on defense at the Dome (-41.8 FRAA) then they were on the road (-33.8 FRAA).  What it appears to be is that the Metrodome's configuration greatly muted the opposing team's power attack.  While at the Dome, opponents hit 0.99 HR/9 but managed to pick up the pace to 1.27 HR/9 away.  Likewise, opponents found extra base hits harder to come by at the Dome (2.74 XBH/9) versus outside (3.49 XBH/9) leading to a better slugging percentage away from Minneapolis (.396 H vs. .467 A).

 

Joe Christensen presents both sides of the Pitch Count Debate.  Christensen notes that the Twins frequently allowed Brad Radke to encroach on the 120-pitch count to which Gardenhire said that the following outing, they could expect Radke to be less effective.  In February, I inspected Radke's usage patterns by Pitcher Abuse Points which shows that Tom Kelly allowed Radke to throw high amounts of pitches early in his career.  This patterned subsided when Gardenhire took the helm.  "If I hadn't been on a pitch count, I might not have been able to throw half as much as I did." Radke said. 

 

The Mankato Free Press's Ed Thoma notes that the 2008 Twins had 72 sacrifice flies (five short of the 1984 Oakland A's record setting team).  Hitting sacrifice flies, much like fouling off two-strike pitches, is not, in essence, a skill that can be maintained.  On average, players hit medium-to-long flyballs in 18% of the sac-fly situations and averaged 18% in all other situations.  The Twins were just adept at getting baserunners to third to allow for a sacrifice condition. 

 

Last Thursday, Rob Neyer stated "The Twins are always operating on the margins because, with the notable exceptions of Mauer and Justin Morneau, they don't have any excellent non-pitchers (unless you count Denard Span, and I don't yet). Take away one of them and replace Baker with R.A. Dickey -- and yeah, I love the knuckleballer, but c'mon -- and you're looking at a .500 team. At best."  Although I have disagreed with Neyer's assessment of the Twins' offensive talent in the past, his prediction is fairly accurate.  Depending on the length of the pair's tenure on the DL, it stands to reason that it would cost the team approximately five wins.  By the way, Mauer tells Phil Miller that it will be weeks, not months before he returns to the lineup.

 

While Jim Souhan opines about the longevity of the modern pitcher-batter match-up -- erroneously blaming Bill James, Billy Beane and Michael Lewis for the increased value in walks -- he fails once again to see the big picture.  Consider that since 1901, no team that has finished last in the league in walks has won a World Series.  In addition to that, according to 2000 Baseball Scoreboard, the teams that did finish last in walks had a combine winning percentage of .415.  Eliminate pitch selectivity to appease your fans that want to go to bed by 9:15 and you hasten your team's winter break.   

 

Baseball announced that the Royals-White Sox opening series will not start on today as scheduled due to weather conditions in Chicago, instead, the festivities in the Windy City will commence Tuesday.  Of course, there are mind-boggling considerations needed when designing a 162-game schedule for 30 teams but the season opens with two teams that have roofs over their respective stadiums playing each other meanwhile another series opens in a northern climate that is often subjected to this kind of weather throughout the first few weeks of April. 

 

The Salt Lake Tribune looks at the successes and failures of the Large, Medium and Small market clubs.  Once again to perpetuate a common fallacy, the writer lumps the Twins within the "small market" category and describes them as "poster child for small market success".  According to the 2007 census reports, the Twin Cities Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is ranked 16th in size, just 100,000 fewer people than that of "medium market" Seattle-Tacoma.  The Twin Cities is also larger than several noted "medium market" MSAs, including St Louis and Baltimore.  The Twins should be described more accurately as the poster child for small budget success. 

 

La Velle E. Neal is hosting a live chat at 12 to talk the upcoming 2009 baseball season. 

 

Aaron Gleeman provides his predictions for the Twins season and all of baseball for that matter. 

 

Seth Stohs has the rundown of the roster situations organizationwide.  Stohs, the content editor here at Baseball Digest for the Twins, will be joining John Bonnes, the TwinsGeek, for a nightly postgame podcast at MNGameNight.com.  Be sure to turn in to listen to the two best pair of talking heads in the Twins blogosphere.

 

Nick Nelson is finally announcing he is officially solo.  (It's like the moment KC finally left the Sunshine Band.) His blog is redesigned for the 2009 season. 

 

Josh Johnson looks at the full Twins roster and lets us know where it compares with the 2008 version. 

 

At Twins MVB, the gang offers up their speculations on the 2009 season while Twinkie Town gives theirs as well.

 

Check out the Baseball Digest Twins writers' predictions for the AL Central and Three Keys to Success.

 

Random Twin factoid:  John Smoltz tells the New York Times that the Twins' Nick Punto is one of the better golfer's in the Major today. 

The Notebook Dump (04.02.09)

Game: Twins 1, Rays 2

Box Score

Recap

Record: 17-13 (5th in Grapefruit)

 

The Quote: "You hope that you sign with an organization that tells the truth, and you hope that you perform well enough to put the ball in their court, and I feel like I've done that." - R.A. Dickey

 

UPDATE: The Twins placed Scott Baker on the 15-day DL due to shoulder tightness.  Francisco Liriano will now assume the Opening Day duties.   With Baker on the DL, the Twins are looking at using R.A. Dickey as the 5th starter to face Chicago next Friday.  Baker's injury might explain why he had such a rough spring - in 23 2/3 innings, he struck out 16 and walked three while allowing nine home runs leading to a 6.85 ERA.  It was obvious that Baker's command was good, however, he was very hittable.  Though I cannot provide any evidence that his velocity was down this spring, shoulder injuries are usually a cause of that.  As I outlined in March, Baker's stuff is quite good, so the hope is that this is nothing more than "tightness". 

 

A lead-off home run by Gabe Gross was the difference as the Rays topped the Twins 2-1.  Battling for a spot in the bullpen, R.A. Dickey tossed four innings of three-hit ball, striking out three and walking one.  Dickey was relieved by Philip Humber whose three innings of work was marred by the Gross home run.  Humber's spring had been far more tumultuous than of Dickey's.  In 14 innings, Humber has posted a 8/2 K/BB ratio with a 5.14 ERA. Dickey, meanwhile, has pitched 17 2/3 innings this spring with a 18/4 K/BB ratio with a 2.04 ERA.   Even with the performance discrepancies, Humber should get the nod over Dickey to open the season since transitioning Humber to AAA requires the Twins to expose him to waivers. 

 

After being informed that he was going to be the temporary backstop while Joe Mauer is on the mend, Jose Morales wept openly in from of manager Ron Gardenhire, reports Phil Miller.  The selection of Morales over a superior defensive catcher in Drew Butera was justified by GM Bill Smith because of Morales's experience above AA and his offensive capabilities that exceed that of Butera's.  For his part, Morales immediately reassured everyone of this decision by promptly going 0-for-3 and allowing FIVE stolen bases against the Rays.

 

Injuries abound for the Twins as Brian Buscher, Delmon Young, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer and Joe Crede all were suffering from various ailments.  None are serious, most likely wear-and-tear from the extended spring training season this year. 

 

 

In one of the more enlightened articles provided in the Star Tribune's print edition, Joe Christensen looks at the Twins defense through John Dewan's The Fielding Bible, Volume II and provides a decent primer to those that are unfamiliar with Dewan's defensive rating system.  In addition to that, Christensen slices up some more Twins defensivey goodness in his Around the Majors blog, particularly how bad Delmon Young's defense actually was outside the commonly accepted fielding statistics (RZR, UZR, fielding pct, etc). 

 

USA Today ranks the Twins 9th overall and looks at their outfield surplus. 

 

Geoff Baker reports that the Seattle Mariners returned Jose Lugo to the Twins.  Lugo, whom the Mariners acquired from Kansas City after the Royals selected Lugo in the Rule 5 draft, threw 7 1/3 innings, recording one strikeout, walked three and surrendered two earned runs for them this spring.  In 69 innings at Ft Myers in 2008, Lugo struck out 76 and issued 36 walks with a 4.43 Runs Allowed Average.  One year ago the two franchises were able to work out a deal as the Twins accepted catcher Jair Fernandez as compensation for R.A. Dickey under similar circumstances.  Unlike Dickey, who had MLB experience, the 24-year-old hard throwing reliever had yet to pitch above high-A so his return to the organization was expected.  The Twins have assigned Lugo to New Britain. 

 

David Brown over at Yahoo! Sports features a quirky Q&A with Twins closer Joe Nathan discussing non-topics such as the Twins commercials, other people named Joe Nathan, the facial hair habits of closers and encounters with UFOs. 

 

The Baggy will no long adorn the Dodge Ram emblem as it had the past several years.  In the Dome's final year, Stanley Works, a manufacturer of security systems, tools and other products, will have the rights to the advertising on the blue tarp.  In addition to the premium space, Stanley Works will sponsor the two Web cams that have been in use since 2007 which allows viewers to witness the construction of Target Field. 

 

Seth Stohs gives his Top 15 Baseball Movies in the event Twins fans need a weekend of DVD-watching to remind them baseball season is indeed upon us here in Minnesota despite what the weather suggests. 

At Baseball Digest, we're providing our candidates for Breakout Player of the Year.  Though his playing time is contingent on Joe Crede, how about Brian Buscher for a Breakout candidate?  So far this spring, Buscher has hit .380/.467/.500.  With Crede hitting .167/.245/.292 through spring, there is still the outside possibility that Buscher winds up being that left-handed platoon partner afterall.