Where Does Nick Blackburn Go From Here?

Nick Blackburn is of that cut from utilitarian ilk, plodding, methodical and workmanlike.  He appears of the caliber that supplies thousands of man-hours with nary a thanks, nor the ingrained desire to recieve one.  He bridged the rotation from March until the last night in September, making the most starts of anyone in a Twins uniform (33) and working the most innings (193).  On top of that, he was given the start in the biggest of the 163 games played all year - a game in which he made just one mistake to Jim Thome, a player that has capitalized on Twins pitchers' mistakes for eons (hitting 55 career home runs so far).  Yet it is as if fans and analysts have already dismissed him; there's Baker, Liriano, Slowey, Perkins and The Other Guy.  When Blackburn's early spring training knee issue came to light recently, the matter took a backseat to the more popular media stories of Boof Bonser and Joe Nathan's respective shoulders, Joe Mauer's back and the OctoMom's fertilizer fluid donor.  It would seem that he would have trouble finding a shower if he were lit on fire.

 

Coming into spring training, the Twins starting pitchers have their careers well defined.  Scott Baker secured several years this past offseason with a long-term contract.  Francisco Liriano has been the golden child since 2006 and just needs that full season back to prove it before cashing in.  Kevin Slowey is next on the list obtain his tenured contract.  Glen Perkins has a solid minor league pedigree, a Minnesota birthright and a left-handed throwing arm.  Nick Blackburn is the odd-man out of the rotation.

 

To be blunt, his moderate success was somewhat hollow.  While Blackburn worked well enough to hold the rotation together for the duration of the 2008 season, internally, the front office began to look elsewhere at the trade deadline, specifically asking the Mariners about overpriced starter Jarrod Washburn in order to place Blackburn in the bullpen.  It wasn't that he was terrible in the second-half but his peripherals took a nasty left-turn.  In his 118 first-half innings, Blackburn possessed a 4.87 K/9 and a 1.37 BB/9 while giving up 0.91 HR/9.  His final 75 innings witnessed a significant drop in strikeouts (3.84 K/9) and a walks inflation (2.52 BB/9) and he began giving up an alarming amount of home runs (1.32 HR/9).  This was obviously the byproduct of pitching more innings in a single-season than he had in any other minor league year.  In addition to that digression midseason, his 4.04 ERA was controlled by the fact that he was not credited 15 runs due to shoddy defense. This was the second-most among pitchers who threw a minimum of 190 innings, trailing the White Sox Gavin Floyd who had 19.  With those runs debited to his account, Blackburn had a 4.75 RA.  Among that same group of pitchers that threw 190 innings, Blackburn was third from the bottom in K/9 with 4.47.  Unlike the aforementioned Perkins who had a low K/9 as well (4.41 K/9), Perkins had a solid 8.76 K/9 in 311 minor league innings while Blackburn managed a 4.90 K/9 in 450 innings.  Perkins's past provides opportunity for a rebound as Blackburn is probably destined to have one under 5.0.  

 

At 27 in 2009, Blackburn is as close to a finished product as you are going to get.  His repertoire does not feature any particular strikeout pitch (his two best WHIFF pitches - slider and change - he throws less than 16% of the time combined and even then they are both well-under .200 to be consider a true strikeout out-pitch).  His development pattern does not support the idea that his strikeout rate will spike either.  At this point in his career, he is what he is, a guy that doesn't issue free passes and is indebted to the play of the seven other guys behind him.     

 

So where does Blackburn project in the future?  The Twins once had the identical pitcher named Carlos Silva. Both Silva and Blackburn demonstrated excellent control, worked for groundball contact and chewed up innings.  If it were not for being delivered three years apart and on separate continents, you would suspect that they were fraternal twins.  Silva's career arc should be a strong message to Blackburn.  The Twins balked at paying Silva any more than his market value (and rightly so) when he reached free agency and the organization simply pulled the Chief from the Pitchers' Kleenex box, disposed of him and up popped Blackburn, a pitcher groomed with the identical skillset - all for a fraction of the price.  Because of this commonality, it is apparent that Nick Blackburn will suffer a similar fate as Silva: become a former Twin. 

 

Blackburn's current value should not be understated.  His contract is cheap and under control for two more seasons (he was worth $11.2 million while earning only $450,000).  His ability to alleviate usage of the bullpen is noteworthy as well as his miserly base-on-ball allowance.  The problem is, this is the type of performance that other organizations overvalue for the wrong reasons, and end up overexerting themselves financially to acquiring through free agency or through trades.  Fortunately, the Twins farm system is laden with control artists in waiting.  The 2009 Baseball Prospectus suggests in the players' comments that "[Kevin] Mulvey is waiting for one of the generic pitchers in front of him to yield a spot somewhere on the staff".  Rest assured that the unidentified generic pitcher BP speaks of is probably that of Nick Blackburn. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Twins Historical Player Profile: Doug Corbett

The Minnesota Twins finished the 1979 season smack-dab in the middle of the AL West at 82-80.  That season, the offense scored 4.71 runs per game led by shortstop Roy Smalley would provided 5.6 batting wins.  The pitching staff relied on the aging Jerry Koosman (20-13), Dave Goltz (14-13) and Geoff Zahn (13-7) and had a fairly supportive bullpen that possessed a cumulatively 3.42 ERA.  At the back-end of the relief staff the Twins had a workhorse in the 36-year-old Mike Marshall. 

 

Marshall, a former Cy Young winner in 1974, signed a two-year, $300,000 contract prior to the 1979 season and would make 90 relief appearances (most in the AL), throw over 140 innings, and save 32 games (most in the AL) that year.  The late innings specialist would grab 10 victories and post a 2.65 ERA but also led the team in losses with 15 while converting 76% of his save opportunities.  The surprising Twins found themselves in second-place in the AL West as late as August 15th, behind the division-leading California Angels by two games.  Marshall, however, would finish 0-6 in the final two months of the season as the Twins would tailspin to an 18-24 finish. 

 

The local ownership began to question Marshall's capabilities and began to look elsewhere for answers.  The front office identified an unprotected reliever in the Cincinnati Reds organization was intriguing enough to secure using a Rule 5 draft pick.  Doug Corbett, a former free agent signed by the Kansas City Royals out of the University of Florida, came equipped with a heavy sinker/slider combination and at the age of 27, the Twins felt that he was Major League-ready.   

 

Making 73 appearances in his belated rookie season, Corbett averaged 1.8 innings per outing, a trademark of manager Gene Mauch's usage of relief specialists.  Though the season was a disappointment for a team that had regressed from an 82-80 season in 1979 to 77-84, Corbett contributed 23 saves and posted an ERA+ of 220.  His 23 saves was a rookie record that stood until Baltimore's Gregg Olson topped that in 1989 as a 22-year-old rookie with 27 saves; it was an introductory performance garnered Corbett enough votes for third place in the AL Rookie of the Year award (Super Joe Carboneau for the Indians would go home with the hardware).  The Twins, smitten with their newest fireman, signed Corbett to a two-year, $500,000 contract. 

 

In the strike-segmented 1981 season, Corbett would pitch in 54 of the team's 109 total games finishing with 17 saves and a 2.57 ERA (ERA+ 154) while working an average of 1.6 innings per outing.  His save conversion rate would take a hit as he would save just 68% of his opportunities, a serious drop from his 76% in 1981.  As a team, the Twins took a turn for the worse as well.  The offense supplied the second-fewest runs per game (3.44) - leading only the anemic Toronto Blue Jays - a pitiful showing that less than 8,000 Twin Citians on average witnessed in person in the team's final season at Metropolitan Stadium.  Through all of the turmoil, Corbett was the Twins' only bright spot, earning the team's lone All Star representative berth. 

 

By 1982, the franchise had crash-landed in their new home in downtown Minneapolis - and so did Corbett.  In just ten games from April 7th to May 8th, opponents smashed him all over the field, hitting .300/.370/.467 in that time while blowing three saves.  Looking to employ the young, inexpensive talent, the Twins sent Corbett along with Rob Wilfong (28) to the California Angels in May for Tom Brunansky, Mike Walters and $400,000.  On America's right coast, Corbett's fortitude would be questioned when he would be known for yelling "Look out!" after releasing high-and-tight fastballs. 

 

Corbett would have several successful seasons with California, helping the bullpen in the 1986 playoffs, but would struggle in Baltimore a year later and made his last Major League appearance on July 30th, 1987.  He would later pitch in the short-lived Senior Professional Baseball Association in 1989 and 1990 and is now coaching in his home state of Florida. 

This article is also found at Baseball Digest. 

Twins Notes (03.23)

The Twins throttled a Blue Jays lineup that had left the majority of their starters at home 11-to-6.  First baseman Justin Morneau finished 2-for-2 with a home run and three RBIs while third baseman Joe Crede had one hit, a run-scoring double, and walked twice. On the mound, Scott Baker's spring struggles continued as he allowed four earned runs on nine hits while registering five strikeouts in 4.2 innings of work.  Kelly Thesier says Jose Mijares left after he gave up two earned runs in less than an inning of work following an incident in which he was spiked in the ankle while covering first base. 

 

With hopes of cracking the opening day roster slipping away with each outing this spring, Joe Christensen submits an interesting profile on reliever Jose Mijares, shedding more light on his winter league issues, family background and the Twins view of his preseason weight problems.   Mijares has worked seven innings this spring and has walked nine while striking out six with a gaudy 12.98 spring ERA.  If Mijares is indeed optioned to Rochester, the Twins will likely bring the left-handed Brian Duensing north with the club.  In 10 innings of work, Duensing has given up just one earned run leading to a 0.90 ERA (which is a slight misrepresentation of his actual performance in which he has allowed four runs total, resulting in a 3.60 RA).  Because he is a pitcher that throws to contact, Duensing might project better as a back-of-the-rotation starter rather than a reliever.   

 

Phil Miller informs us that manager Ron Gardenhire is having second baseman Alexi Casilla take additional fielding practice to reduce the "tiny stutter-steps" he takes when approaching the bag during a potential double-play.  In 833 innings at second base in 2008, Casilla turned 42 double plays -- approximately 0.45 double plays turned per nine innings.  For comparison's sake, Texas's Ian Kinsler led all second baseman with 0.60 double plays turned per nine innings, making 71 relays in 1,062 innings.  With his combination of speed and arm strength, Casilla has the necessary components to compile a solid defensive season.  Casilla's biggest flaw, according to John Dewan's Fielding Bible analysis, is his inability to make plays ranging to his right which shows he has made 11 fewer plays in that direction than the average second baseman.       

 

Seattle Time's Geoff Baker provides a nice career eulogy for former Twin Corey Koskie.  Baker covered Koskie in 2005 while playing for Toronto and noted that if players on the team he currently follows had played with as much "focus and drive on every pitch" as Koskie did that their "results and reputations would be a whole lot better".

 

When you finish last in your division after entering the 2008 season with unprecedented expectations and find that your aging talent is incapable of generating offense this spring, your local baseball coverage might attempt different angles to interject some positivity.  For example, John Lowe at the Detroit Free Press presents former Twin and new Tiger shortstop Adam Everett's take on Joe Mauer's injury. 

 

The latest member of the expanding list of Twins writers at Baseball Digest, Alex Halsted, submits his preposition for replacing Mauer.  As does Aaron Gleeman.  With Ivan Rodriguez mercifully in Houston, it is now a two-man race between Jose Morales and Drew Butera (although both may be carried north for different skillsets).  In my player write-ups in the 2009 Hardball Times Season Preview, one player comment that was omitted prior to publishing was that of Butera.  Because of his inexperience above AA and generally lethargic offense, I stated that Butera has about the same chances as his dad Sal does at seeing time playing time for the Twins in 2009.  Yes, it was a snarky comment and I could have filed that tidbit away and no one would have been any wiser but deep down I know that I should be eating crow. 

At Beyond the Boxscore, RJ Anderson profiles the 2002 Minnesota Twins through win value.  Somehow Denny Hocking was allowed to have 294 plate appearances that year.  Yikes.  

 

John Bonnes responds to Patrick Reusse's diatribe outlining the Twins roster situation.  Reusse predicts that the Twins will head north with infielders Brian Buscher and Matt Tolbert at the expense of Brendan Harris.  Bonnes refutes this by suggesting that the front office will recognize the fact that both Buscher and Tolbert can be optioned and Harris would have to encounter A) an injury or B) another organization interested in his services. 

 

Erin Kathleen lists Five Things that she believes will work in favor of the Twins in 2009.   For a good chance at winning the division, the Twins probably will need four of them to happen, especially having Jesse Crain to solidify the bullpen set-up role. 

For those that are unsatisfied with sports talk radio format being limited to talk radio shows, the Twins will begin fielding calls, emails and recorded questions from fans in the stands during the spring training broadcasts on KSTP (AM 1500) writes Judd Zulgad.  Long-time broadcasting trio of John Gordon, Dan Gladden and Jack Morris will limit the play-by-play and focus more on interaction with the listeners and fans, a feature that the Twins are copying from the Chicago White Sox. 

Odds. Ends. (03.18)

Chicago White Sox

 

• Bartolo Colon's first spring outing for the Sox didn't go according to plan.  The Sun-Time's Joe Cowley reports that in his inning-and-two-thirds of work against the Royals, Colon labored heavily to throw strikes, hitting the zone in just 22 of his 40 pitches. ''The most important thing is he was out there healthy, healthier,'' manager Ozzie Guillen said. ''I could say everything about Contreras because I've known Jose for four or five years. Colon, I haven't seen him pitch in a little while. Obviously, his ball was up a little bit. ... His velocity was good enough for me. He did what I expect." The 36-year-old's results are somewhat textbook considering that he recent underwent elbow clean-up surgery.  As a rule, shoulder injuries wind up with decreased velocity while the elbow injury sufferers usually have more problems with control. 

 

Minnesota Twins

 

• La Velle notes the Twins are determined to use Denard Span defensively - with the expense of playing musical lineups with Carlos Gomez, Michael Cuddyer and Delmon Young.  The Twins are favoring using him in left field which would be the most efficient implementation of his skills.  The Metrodome has an expansive left-center field area and a Span-Gomez combination would cover a portion of that.  The downside is that Span has never been asked to field left before.  "It's just something I have to learn how to do," Span said. "It's not that I can't do it. I've just never done it in my short career. That's the biggest thing, learning how to play different positions day in and day out.  I play left field today and the ball is slicing this way, and the next day the ball is slicing the opposite way."  In his brief tenure as the Twins right fielder in 2008 (686 innings), Span was ranked the sixth overall best right field defender according to John Dewan's Fielding Bible.   
• Over at Fangraphs, Dave Cameron ranks the Twins as the 18th overall organization...one slot behind the White Sox.  Discuss. 
• The Brewers have designated former Twins relief prospect Eduardo Morlan to assignment after selecting him from Tampa in the Rule 5 draft according to Tom Haudricourt.  The Rays can either allow the Brewers to keep him, or buy him back for $25,000.  Brewers GM Doug Melvin echoed the same sentiment regarding Morlan that one Twins official told me: "We like his arm but that's not our call right now," said Melvin.

 

 Cleveland Indians

 

• Cleveland Plain Dealer's Paul Hoynes celebrated the switch-hitting skills of Indians second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera.  Hoynes notes that Cabrera was taught to be a switch-hitter when he was three-years-old in Venezuela so, therefore, he is a "natural".  Admittedly, Cabrera's minor league splits are that of a disciplined hitter from either side of the plate (.752 OPS RH/.780 OPS LH), but his major league experience has fallen short of his development numbers: in as a left-handed batter he has a .661 OPS with a .957 OPS batting right-handed.  This is not so much a degradation of Cabrera's talents as it is indictment of the media's preconceived notions about switch-hitters: sometimes it is more beneficial to bench a switch-hitter when he is facing a pitcher from his inferior plate side in favor of a platoon instead of wedging the switch-hitter in simply because he fits (I find the managers love it because it is a no-brainer).  The legendary Eddie Murray was viewed as one of the best switch-hitters of all-time but even his numbers suggest that he was better from the left-side (.857 OPS) than his right (.787). 
• I specifically noted Murray because it gives me the opportunity to forward on this 2003 Joe Christensen article written while he was with the Baltimore Sun (for whatever reason, I keep picturing Christensen with a mullet as I read this...) on the former O's and Indian slugger Eddie Murray.   Christensen - or possibly another reporter - poses the question to Orioles former scouting director Dave Ritterpusch if Murray would have made the Hall had he not been a switch-hitter.  As I highlighted above, he was a better hitter from the left-side, hitting 362 of his 504 career home runs from that batter's box, his non-natural side. 

 

Kansas City Royals

 

• The Twins might not be done with the likes of Sir Sidney Ponson -- according to Bob Dutton at the Kansas City Star, the Royals have signed Ponson to a minor league contract and an invitation to spring training (the 19 days or so left anyways).  In his WBC audition, Ponson worked 9 innings and posted a 4.00 ERA while walking 4 and striking out 4.  After headlining the Netherlands quasi-interesting upset over the Dominican Republic, Ponson will report to Arizona and face the Mariners on Wednesday. 
• In 2008, Royals catcher John Buck hit .224/.304/.365 - numbers that were fairly consistent with his career line but wiuth a dip in his power.  Buck reveals the source behind his struggles at the plate which puts a human face on why sometimes production declines, something we number-crunchers often forget or don't have access to when providing our analysis.  Buck's wife delivered twins in May - one was hanging on with medical support.  “I had my wife in the hospital,” Buck recalled. “I had one of my boys, Brody, literally on a lifeline with oxygen.  I didn’t want to bring it up. I was having a bad season, and I didn’t want to make it sound like an excuse. To me, that would have been a loser’s excuse. So I kept that private."

 

Detroit Tigers

  

• The Tigers are in such a bullpen predicament that they have invited Juan Rincon to camp and threw over $4 million to Brandon Lyon to help solidify an open sore that was once a bastion of talent in 2006 during their World Series run.  Once again, the young flamethrower that was the centerpoint of the 2006 bullpen, Joel Zumaya, is having shoulder pains that is keeping him from throwing this spring.  After manager Jim Leyland said on Sunday that Zumaya would be ready by Opening Day, Jon Paul Morosi's article in the Detroit Free Press raises plenty of doubts.  After being diagnosed by Dr. James Andrews with an inflammed rotator cuff (not a good cuff to have inflammed), Zumaya started having spasms behind his shoulder, keeping him inactive this spring.  What was once a promising career is now teetering on the brink of being extinguished.   

What Should Be Done With Mijares?

After a brief yet successful ten outings in a call up last September, a solid contingency of Twins fans were ready to anoint Jose Mijares the bullpen savior in 2009.  Since this audition however, Mijares has showed glimpses of a potential attitude problem and apathy towards his physical conditioning. 

 

In the 2008 Baseball Prospectus Annual, the commentator noted that Mijares' "attitude was a concern, as it seems that he doesn't like baseball as much as he's simply good at it."  These words were scribed months prior to Mijares' meltdown in Venezuela and it wound up being prophetic.  The Twins shuttled Mijares south to the Venezuelan Winter League in order to consume more innings considering the majority of his development in 2008 was sidetracked by a car accident a year ago while pitching in the same league.  His winter began much like his season ended: In 28 outings, Mijares worked 25 2/3 innings, striking out 32 and walking 12 while posting an ERA of 1.40.  However, the Twins reliever would find himself at odds with Tigres de Aragua manager Buddy Bailey, resulting in Mijares being a no-show to multiple games.  The feud culminated in Bailey scratching Mijares from the playoff roster in spite of Mijares' obvious success.  For their part, the Twins front office revealed little insight as to their interpretation of the events.  "I'm not sure [Mijares] handled it as well as anyone would have liked," Twins General Manager Bill Smith told reporters in January, sounding more like a parent that had been informed their child was acting out in class. 

 

The silver-lining that came from the winter ball incident was that the Twins were able to stress to Mijares that nothing is guaranteed -- his spot on the roster is going to have to be earned in the spring.  "If he comes to camp thinking he's a lock for our bullpen, he'll probably be in [Class AAA] Rochester after our first cuts," Smith said. "If he pitches the way he did in September, he has a good chance of making our club."  A introduction to Rochester would be wildly beneficial to the long-term development of Mijares' career.  Consider that including his 10 innings in September, Mijares has thrown just 19 total innings above Class AA. You can believe that teams scheduled to face the Twins in September must have been feverishly contacting scouts and coaches that had seen Mijares in AA in 2007 for some semblance of a scouting report.  Consider that he faced just 34 batters in his stint with the Twins in 2008.  Had Danny Valencia or Luke Hughes showed similar success in 34 plate appearances at the Major League level, this would be quickly dismissed as a small sample size rather than sustainable output.  Likewise, Mijares' 2008 should be viewed as just that, a small sample size success. 

 

Have you noticed that the Twins front office is more obsessive about weight loss than the trainers on NBC's Biggest Loser?  Last year it was Boof Bonser that needed lighten the load.  This year the Large Marge Award goes to Mijares.  Bonser's bio states that he is six-foot-four carrying 260 pounds, which is downright America's Next Top Model-ish compared to Mijares whose six-foot-even frame is carrying 230 pounds on his comparatively more squat body.  Following a team meeting at the conclusion of the 2008 season, manager Ron Gardenhire prodded Mijares to drop some of the extra weight before spring camp.  So far, Mijares has disappointed the coaching staff with his conditioning program.  During an outing on March 7th against the Pirates, Mijares summoned the manager and trainer to the mound after doubling over following a play that had him covering first and indicated that he had "tweaked" his ankle.  Gardenhire later dismissed this to the media, saying "I think he was out of breath.  He's a work in progress."

The weight and focus issues should not detract from Jose Mijares as a pitcher, however.  Nobody is questioning his talent - scouts like his fastball that can reach the mid-90's and his complementary slider with stomach-churning break.   Yes, the mental state of preparedness and extra poundage raises the concern over endurance and what his second-half might look like with substandard conditioning, both mentally and physically, but he has succeeded at every level in his career.  In 265-plus minor league innings, Mijares accumulated 319 strikeouts to 151 walks - a little over two strikeouts to every walk.  Throughout those levels, Mijares showed that he could retire both left-handed and right-handed opponents with ease, producing a .198 BA versus lefties and a .213 BA versus righties.  On top of that, nobody managed to find a way to hit his offerings squarely (opponents have hit line drives just 9% of the time against him). 

 

Unfortunately for Mijares, this spring has been littered with sub-par performances and ultimately failing to exert himself as the dominate reliever that the Twins need -- allowing six runs while striking out four and walking seven in 4 2/3 innings of work.  Giving Mijares the opportunity to refine his abilities to begin the 2009 season is the right decision for the organization.