The Rule V Retrospective: A Look at the Twins (Other) Draft Picks

In a little over a week, Major League Baseball will conduct their 49th Rule 5 Draft dating back to 1959.  Though the likelihood of the Twins partaking in the draft seems improbable, presently the Twins are carrying only 38 players on the 40-man roster leaving the team qualified to participate in the draft (Eduardo Morlan's name has been thrown out a lot lately).  When the personnel requires it, the Twins are known to exercise their select of a player that their scouting staff deemed useful.  Obviously the story of Johan Santana comes to mind when associating the Rule 5 and the Twins, as does outfielder Shane Mack.  Those players are certainly exceptions rather than rules but it shows that a budgeted team needs to check all available avenues for talent.  For example, on the current roster Brian Buscher, Armando Gabino, and Jason Pridie were acquired through past Rule 5 drafts (or as the case with Pridie, drafted and returned to his previous club before being reacquired the following year). 

 

Outside of the well-documented cases of Santana and Mack, the Twins have discovered a source of cost-efficient talent, as was the case with closer Doug Corbett and catcher Mark Salas.  But the team found other ways to implement their draft picks.  Utility man George Banks was packaged and traded for a pitcher that helped the team reach the World Series for the first time.  Likewise Corbett would be flipped for a young right fielder that would power the franchise to their first World Series title.  As good as their farm system as been at developing players, other teams have not plucked many useful components away from the Twins, only Joe Foy was selected and went on to supply his new team with good output. 

 

1961	Drafted	Lost
	George Banks (NYY)	None
	Johnny Goryl (LAD)
	Georges Maranda (SFG)

After completing their first season in Bloomington 70-90, a mere 38 games behind the New York Yankees, the Minnesota Twins took the opportunity to plunder their system by grabbing utility man George Banks from under their nose.  The selection of Banks was followed by infielder Johnny Goryl from the Dodgers and pitcher Georges Maranda from the Giants. 

 

Goryl had seen limited action with the Chicago Cubs from 1957 to 1959 as a third baseman.  In 1960, the Cubs packaged Goryl, Ron Perranoski, Lee Handley and $25,000 to the Dodgers in exchange for Don Zimmer.  Zimmer would have two mediocre seasons for the Cubs before being cherry picked by the New York Mets in the expansion draft prior to the 1962 season.  The Dodgers obtained one of the better relief pitchers in the game in Perranoski.  Before the era of the one-inning closers, Perranoski would save 101 games for the Dodgers before being traded to the Twins in 1967 along with Johnny Roseboro and Bob Miller for Mudcat Grant and Zolio Versalles.  Goryl would not see one inning of playing time with the Dodgers. The Twins plucked him from the Dodgers in 1961's Rule V draft.  With the Twins for three seasons, Goryl would hit .221/.291/.393 in 290 at-bats before being run out of baseball at the age of 30.  The organization, however, took a shine to Goryl and had a coaching spot for him.  After coaching in 1968 and 1969, Bill Rigney would be appointed manager in 1970 and disintegrated outgoing manager Billy Martin's coaching staff.  In 1979 manager Gene Mauch would bring Goryl back and in 1980 following a 54-71 start Mauch was fired and Goryl would be anointed manager and finish the season 23-13.  In the ensuing season, Goryl would start 11-25 and find himself replaced by Billy Gardner on May 21st, 1981.  Today, Goryl is a player development advisor for the Cleveland Indians, a team that he coached for from 1982 to 1988 and again from 1997 to 1998. 

 

Georges Henri Maranda, from Levis, Quebec, would be drafted by the Boston Braves in 1951 but would not see an inning in the Majors until the ripe age of 28 in 1960.  After 50.2 innings of work with the San Francisco Giants, Maranda displayed little control.  A 30-to-28 BB-to-K ratio showed no evidence that Maranda was anything but a has-been (or a never-was).  In 1962, the Twins gave the 30-year-old righty 72 innings where he possessed a 92 ERA+ and a weak 35-to-36 BB-to-K ratio.  At the conclusion of the season, the Twins would ship him along with Jackie Cullom to Cleveland for Ruben Gomez.

 

Of the three it would be Banks that would contribute the most.  Working mostly as a pinch hitter in 1962, Banks would tally a .252/.372/.408 batting line in 103 at-bats with four home runs.  The following year would not be nearly as fruitful as Banks' statistics - along with his playing time - plummeted.  In June 1964, the Twins would concoct one of the franchises' best trades on record.  Banks would be bundled with pitcher Lee Stange to the Cleveland Indians for Jim 'Mudcat' Grant.  Though it will go down as a pox on the Indian organization, it should be noted that at first blush the deal actually looked to favor the Erie Warriors.  In 1963 Stange had completed his 26-year-old season in which he compiled a 12-4 record with an ERA+ of 140 and a solid 100/63 K/BB ratio.  What's more is that Stange had lit up the California League, leading in every major category a pitcher could.  The 27-year-old Grant, meanwhile, had finished the year an All-Star pitcher with an ERA+ of 98 but a 13-14 record, thanks to a lousy Indians team.  Grant had set a personal high in strikeouts (157) but had also issued his share of walks (87) and home runs (30).  When he started of the 1964 season with the Indians with a 5.95 ERA, the team was glad to part with him.  Little did they know that the Twins would be able harness his control.  In 1965, Grant allowed just 61 walks in 270 innings and ended with another All-Star appearance and a 21-7 record.  Admittedly Grant faded quickly after his 1965 campaign and in 1967 he would be a part of the aforementioned Perranoski/Roseboro/Miller trade with the Dodgers. 

1962	Drafted	Lost
	None	Joe Foy (BOS)

The Twins signed Joe Foy as an amateur free agent before the 1962 season and would remain in the organization until that following November when the Boston Red Sox nabbed Foy with their Rule V minor league pick. 

 

In 1965 Foy was the Minor League Player of the Year while playing for the Toronto Maple Leafs in the International League.  At age 23 in 1966, Foy emerged as the Red Sox's starting third baseman and put up very good power numbers (15 home runs, .413 slugging %) but also displayed zen-like patience (91 walks).  The Twins relied on the defensively inept Harmon Killebrew to cover the hot corner as Don Mincher manned first base.  Foy's freshman year bat would supply one less batting win than the Killer's (1.6 to 2.6) but slightly more than one additional win over Mincher's.   His sophomore season, according to Baseball-Reference's Similarity Scores, resembles that of Royals third base phenom Alex Gordon.  That year, Foy hit 16 home runs and hit .251/.325/.426.  In his third season, Foy would begin to show his basepath prowess jumping from 14 total stolen base attempts in 1967 to 34 in 1968.  Still, the Red Sox may have sensed decline and left him exposed to the expansion draft where the Kansas City Royals scooped him up out of Fenway.  The Royals later used him as a bargaining chip to obtain Amos Otis from the Mets, who would become a mainstay on some very good Kansas City ballclubs.  In 1970 Foy would once again be selected in the Rule V draft - this time by the Washington Senators.  While working under Ted Williams' tutelage, Foy would hone his batting eye (27/14 BB/K) but at the young age of 28 his power was zapped and his career would soon be over. 

 

 

1979	Drafted	Lost
	Doug Corbett (CIN)	None
	Guy Sularz (SFG)

 

The Twins finished the 1979 season smack-dab in the middle of the AL West at 82-80.  That season, the offense scored 4.71 runs per game led by shortstop Roy Smalley would provided 5.6 batting wins.  The pitching staff relied on the aging Jerry Koosman (20-13), Dave Goltz (14-13) and Geoff Zahn (13-7)

The Twins took Guy Sularz, a utility infielder, from the Giants organization most likely because being from Minneapolis (but attended North Hollywood High School), Sularz was probably already familiar with the town.  By the end of spring training the Twins returned him to the West Coast team from whence he came. 

 

Corbett, on the other hand, was intriguing.  He had a heavy sinker and at 27 years old, Major League ready.  The Twins grabbed him from the Reds and tossed him into the bullpen.  Making 73 appearances in his belated rookie season, Corbett averaged 1.8 innings per outing.  Though the season was a disappointment for a team that had regressed from an 82-80 season in 1979 to 77-84, Corbett contributed 23 saves, 4.8 pitching wins and posted an ERA+ of 220.  His 23 saves was a rookie record that stood until Baltimore's Gregg Olson topped that in 1989 as a 22-year-old rookie with 27 saves. His introductory performance garnderd Corbett enough votes for third place in the AL Rookie of the Year award (Super Joe Carboneau for the Indians would go home with the hardware).  In 1981, Corbett would come back down to earth.  That year, the Twins took a turn for the worse.  The offense supplied the second-fewest runs per game (3.44) leading only the anemic Toronto Blue Jays.  The 28-year-old closer was used far less, deployed only 54 times in 1981.  Still, Corbett was elected to the AL All-Star team but did not play.  By 1982, the franchise had crash-landed in their new home - and so did Corbett.  In just ten games from April 7th to May 8th, opponents smashed him all over the field, hitting .300/.370/.467 in that time.  Looking to employ the young, inexpensive talent, the Twins sent Corbett along with Rob Wilfong (28) to the California Angels for Tom Brunansky, Mike Walters and $100,000.  There, Corbett's fortitude would be questioned when he would be known for yelling "Look out!" after releasing high-and-tight fastballs.  For the cost of the Rule V draft, the Twins were able to secure two-plus seasons of a reliever who provided 6.2 pitching wins to the team and exchange him for another inexpensive player that would contribute another 2.6 batting wins the rest of the 1982 season in Brunansky. 

 

1981	Drafted	Lost
	Paul Boris (NYY)	None

In 1978 the New York Yankees signed Boris out of Rutgers University as an amateur free agent.  The Twins took a shine to the right-handed pitcher and acquired him via the Rule V draft after the 1981 season.  The pitching staff for the Twins had a rough go in the strike-shortened season.  Lacking any offensive support, no starter - with the exception of Pete Redfern (9-8) - possessed a winning record.  In the bullpen only Doug Corbett had provided any sort of noteworthy relief, ending up the Twins All-Star representative that season.  After a spring training audition, the Twins returned him to the Yankees on April 2nd, 1982.  Eight days later the Twins would trade Roy Smalley to the Yankees for Ron Davis (who would replace the traded Corbett as the team's closer), minor league shortstop Greg Gagne aaaannnnnnd....Paul Boris.  The trade appeared to be the last straw for fans who largely ignored the new stadium downtown as the Twins were deadlast in the American League for attendance.  Former players and fans accused Calvin Griffith of conducting a 'clearance sale', jettisoning the large contracts of Smalley and Wynager to the Yankees for inexpensive player.  Former Twin Dan Ford, then with the Orioles, told the Associated Press that, "They come up with minor league guys and as soon as they do well, they trade them off.  They notice people making money and they let them go like (Rod) Carew, (Larry) Hisle, Smalley, (Lyman) Bostock and myself.  All they know is the value of a dollar.  They'll take a guy with a $40,000 salary over a guy with a $100,000 salary."   Griffith responded by saying, "The names aren't producing.  We'll get some kids in here and give them an opportunity to play."

 

It would be the recently acquired Davis that would be the most vocal opponent of the trades, suggesting openly that it should be the owner that should be traded.  Griffith shot back by calling Davis a "New York counterfeit" and adding "I hope he is not getting nervous now that Corbett is gone."

 

Desperate for warm bodies during the 1982 season, Boris was given the opportunity to prove that he was one.  After starting the season in AAA Toledo, Boris made 23 appearances coming out of a terrible bullpen and would only pitch in just one game that the Twins claimed victory (and he was credited with the win).  Boris's historical importance is basically his involvement in the acquisition of Gagne who would anchor shortstop for the two World Series teams and Ron Davis, the closer that probably cost the team a post-season appearance in 1984.  
 

1984	Drafted	Lost
	Mark Salas (STL)	None

Lacking confidence in catcher Tim Laudner and Dave Engle's in ability to hit, the Twins took Mark Salas from the Cardinals organization.  In 120 games with the Twins in his rookie season, Salas hit .300/.332/.458 while contributing 1.5 batting wins.  His performance earned him Rookie of the Year considerations (8th place).  The follow season, Salas's numbers dropped significantly and in 1987 he was traded to the Yankees for Joe Niekro at the trade deadline in efforts to bolster a depleted pitching staff.  Niekro, of course, wouldn't do any good for the Championship team, yet he would supply one of the most memorable moments in Twins lore as he attempted to thwart an umpire's on-field cavity search. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Odds, Ends (11.25.08)

 

• I Love the '80s.  In efforts to - I don't know - honor the Metrodome the Twins have announced that all Saturday home games in 2009 the Twins will don retro jersey commemorating the initial season indoors.  For those that cannot recall the 1982 Dome break-in season, don't worry, you aren't missing much.  It was Billy Gardner's first season as the team's manager and his young squad (averaging just 25 years old) finished the 60-102 - a distant 33 games out of the American League West - and the .370 winning percentage easily the worst since the move from the Nation's capital.  Even with a new stadium centrally located in Downtown Minneapolis, impervious to the outdoor whether conditions, the team struggled to draw 1 million visitors and finished dead last in attendance in the AL.  The roster was constructed with promising yet unproven talent with the likes of Kent Hrbek (22), Tom Brunansky (21), Tim Laudner (24), Gary Geatti (23), Brad Havens (22) and Frank Viola (22).  Fans expected and received very little out of them.  Still, Hrbek and Geatti displayed power of much older men, slugging .485 and .443 respectively with a combined 48 home runs.  Hrbek would experience the first of two voter-inflicted injustices (the later coming in 1984 when he finished second for the AL MVP) being tagged as runner up for the Rookie of the Year while hitting .301/.363/.485 in 532 at-bats while playing for a 100+ loss team.  Instead, ballots would be casted for Cal Ripken Jr who would hit .264/.317/.475 in 598 at-bats though playing for a team with 94-wins.  The franchise would make several significant personnel moves as well.  In April, the Twins packaged 29-year-old Roy Smalley to the Yankees for closer Ron Davis, Paul Boris and future shortstop Greg Gagne.  A month later catcher Butch Wynegar was flipped to the Yankees along with Roger Erickson for John Pacella, Larry Milbourne, Pete Filson and cash.  Though none of the players gained from the Wynegar transaction amount to anything, moving the opening day catcher made room for minor league slugger Laudner.  On the same day, owner Calvin Griffith would ship pitcher Doug Corbett and second baseman Rob Wilfong to California for Brunansky and Mike Walters (along with $400K).  In three moves, the Twins had acquired three integral components of the 1987 World Champion team.  Maybe that is worth commemorating. 

 

• More '82.  It should be noted that what burned the Twins the most during this era was their inability to draft successfully in the first round.  According to Kevin Kerrane's book, Dollar Sign on the Muscle, the Twins were one of the frugal organizations that had trimmed their scouting budget in order to partake in the socialized experiment, the Major League Scouting Bureau.  This resulted in uninspired first round draft picks:  Paul Croft (1977 - 15th overall), Lenny Faedo (1978 - 16th), Kevin Brandt (1979 - 11th), Jeff Reed (1980 - 12th), and Mike Sodders (1981 - 11th).  Among the first rounders from '77 to '81, only Faedo and Reed would see the Majors.  In 1982, the team continued this trend.  On the board was the highly touted Tampa high school phenom Dwight Gooden.  All reports indicated that Gooden was going to demand a high bonus so it was evident the Twins were going to passed too. The Twins selected Bryan Oelkers, a left-handed pitcher whose claim to fame is being the first player born in Spain break into the Major Leagues, only threw 34 innings for the team.  With a Gooden/Viola tandem the Twins would have had the potential of being a dynasty from 1984 through 1991. 

 

• Twins Aren't Type A Personalities.  Joe Christensen at the Strib reports that the Twins will most likely take a pass on the Type A free agents as to not jeopardize a first-round draft pick in 2009.  This is a fairly evident critic of the organization.  In obtaining a Type A free agent, you are not only committing a large sum of money but you are also losing a draft pick on the opposite end of the pipeline.  Christensen says the Twins have looked at a few Type A relievers, notably Juan Cruz, a hard-throwing relief pitcher for the Diamondbacks, and have stated they have a "Never say never" mentality about it.  The rub is that in the past several offseasons, it has been the Type A reliever that has been the biggest free agent landmine.  For instance:

 

• Type A Relief Free Agents in 2006:
  • Denys Baez's A designation came from 112 innings with the Devils Rays, Dodgers and Braves where he accumulated a 90/47 K/BB and a 4.98 RA.  Signed by the Orioles for 3-years and $19 M, Baez did not throw a pitch in 2008 and has contributed only 50.3 innings with a 29/29 K/BB and a 6.44 RA since signing the massive contract.  
  • Roberto Hernandez parleyed a 2005/2006 seasons in which he threw 133.4 innings with a 109/60 K/BB ratio and a good 3.50 RA.  The Indians, desperate for bullpen help, extended him a 1-year, $3.5 M contract that Hernandez threw just 26 innings with a 7.26 RA before the Tribe released him in June. 
  • The 32-year-old Justin Speier had compiled two back-to-back seasons in Toronto where he averaged a 2.89 RA in his 118 innings.  The Angels signed Speier to a four-year, $18 M deal that offseason.  Though his 2007 performance was consistent with his previous seasons, his 34-year-old season swung the opposite way.  Speier surrendered 41 runs in 68 innings of work inflating his Runs Allowed to 4.42 - almost double than was the Angels were paying for.   
• Type A Relief Free Agents in 2007:
  • Brewers closer Francisco Cordero had two impressive seasons in 2006 and 2007 throwing 138.3 innings with a 170/40 K/BB ratio and a suppressed 3.57 RA.  Cincinnati, in dire need of everything, inked Cordero to a four-year, $46 M contract.  His first season with the Reds was a dominate as ever - almost emulating his previous to with a 3.58 RA in 70.3 innings.  However, at 34 in 2009, Cordero is owed $36 million between now and 2011 as his performance is sure to decline as well
  • At age 29 and 30 Scott Linebrink was dominate left-hander for the Padres and then the Brewers.  He was averaging 3.88 RA and posted a 118/47 K/BB ratio in 146 innings between 2006 and 2007.  In need of bullpen help, the White Sox gave Linebrink $19 M over four-years.  Linebrink's arm broke down and he spent time on the DL, throwing only 46.3 innings in 2008 with his standard 3.88 RA. 
• Not only does the signing of these player come at the substantial investment to the overall budget and the added shot of losing a high draft pick, but most of the time they are quick to decline.  Though Juan Cruz's power numbers are impressive (33% K% versus 477 batters), he will be seeking a multi-year contract presumed to be worth $4 million a season and is just entering his 30s in 2009.  All this combine indicates that Cruz will command a healthy raise.  On one hand, the Twins have some room to maneuver after decreasing their budget in 2008 but on the other, they are an organization that does not like to be shackled to large contracts.  His previous two seasons merit his Type A status: In 112.7 innings, Cruz had a 158/63 K/BB ratio and a 3.59 RA.  More consistent with the Twins' philosophy is the Diamondbacks closer, free agent Brandon Lyon. In the past two seasons, the 28 year old Lyon has thrown 133.3 innings and possesses a 84/35 K/BB ratio.  Like Cruz, Lyon also has a Run Allowed Average below 4.00 (3.98).  Lyon suffered from an inordinate amount of balls finding gaps (a .355 BABIP) making his numbers slightly worse than they.  After making less than $4 million in 2008, Lyon would be more prone to signing a short-term deal (3 years or less) for a better price.

 

• Indian Pirates.  According to the Associated Press, the Pittsburgh Pirates have signed the pair of Indian pitchers I wrote about last week. The Pirates have had troubles in recent years, not having won 70-games since 2004 and have not had a winning season since 1992.  What's more is that the team has had troubles building a solid pitching staff internally - anyone who showed the slightest bit of promise was accelerated to the majors.  When Zach Duke, Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny didn't respond to the rapid development, the Pirates were relegated to trade fixtures Jason Bay and Xavier Nady for more pitching prospects since the minors was void of anyone.  It is obvious that Patel and Singh won't contribute for years to come so the signing represents a shift in front office philosophy - one that does not make a ton of sense.  Here is an organization that cannot properly prepare pitchers that have had years of teaching a various levels from high school and college for the Majors and now they expect to groom two that have zero?  How can you expect to invest in attempting to development two raw players?  As noted, these two are 20 years old that have not yet pitched an inning of organized baseball (some JuCo scrimmages though).  This late start puts them well behind the development curve.  Nevertheless, Pirates GM, Neal Huntington, remains optimistic.  "The Pirates are committed to creatively adding talent to our organization," Huntington said. "By adding these two young men, the Pirates are pleased to not only add two prospects to our system but also hope to open a pathway to an untapped market. We are intrigued by Patel's arm strength and Singh's frame and potential."

 

• San Francisco Geriatrics.  The best thing that might happen to the Detroit Tigers this offseason is that the San Francisco Giants do indeed sign Edgar Renteria away from Motown.  Rumored by WFAN-AM to have a deal in place with the Bay Area team, the Tigers would get two compensatory draft picks as Renteria received Type A status.  In a season in which he hit .270/.317/.382, Renteria did nothing to persuade analysts that he is unable to hit in the American League.  After a brutal offensive season with the Red Sox in 2005, Renteria slinked back to the National League where he began hitting again.  Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski shipped pitcher Jair Jurrjens and Gorky Hernandez to the Atlanta Braves for the 33 year old shortstop with a shakey track record in the AL.  As the Tigers pitching staff disintergrated during the 2008 season, the Braves extracted 188 innings with a 139/70 K/BB and a 13-10 record.  The Giants, meanwhile, are looking to replace their 41-year-old shortstop Omar Vizquel.  Since the Tigers declined Renteria's 2009 option (at $12 million), the estimated signing price is around $9 million for his services.  Even if Renteria contributes enough to reach 8 win share above bench (as he did in 2007), the Giants would be paying $1.125 million per added victory.  At 34-years-old Renteria would be a free agent landmine - even if he is able to resurrect his 2007 output.  To replace Renteria, the Tigers are attempting to strike a deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates for defensive extraordinaire, Jack Wilson. 

 

• Tom Kelly, Horse Enthusiast.  Former Twins manager owns several race horses. Apparently, they are pretty good. 

 

• Non-Baseball.  A man tries to use a drawing of a spider as legal tender. Hilarity ensues.  

 

The Minnesota Underground: Seth Stohs' Prospect Handbook Review

If you have spent any amount of time trolling the Intertubes for Twins blogs, you are probably aware that Seth Stohs, the purveyor of the seminal Twins website SethSpeaks.net, has assembled a compilation of the entire Twins organizations’ cadre of minor leaguers.  When he made his announcement to the Twins blogosphere writers early on, I was immediately infatuated.  Music lovers are enthralled by the no-name bands that perform in no-name bars, listening to them long before there is ever a record deal.  Technophiles love gadgets that haven’t even hit the mainstream markets, reading all about the forthcoming iPhones months in advance of their release and attempting to be an early adapter.  In this fashion, baseball fans are captivated by minor leaguers.  Prospects, much like a new band or touch-interface gizmo, represents the future.

 

In his inaugural edition of his Prospect Handbook (2009) Stohs delivers detailed accounts of players, providing background that goes beyond the nuts-and-bolts of statistics.  Unlike many of the diatribes found here at Over the Baggy expounding on a strikeout rate to gauge a player’s ebb and flow in the Twins’ minor league system, Stohs has frequently admitted in various forums that statistics aren’t necessarily the tell-all when it comes to prospects.  True to his word, this manual's premise hones in less on those numbers than it does on the player’s recent development.  The handbook covers the entire system from Allen (comma Michael) to Yersich (comma Greg), providing insight for players not only on Baseball America’s radar, such as Ben Revere and Aaron Hicks, but also those players that only their immediate families are familiar with. 

 

Though the tendency might be to flip to the top prospects or the dividends of the Johan Santana trade, the book is filled with enough tidbits of the lesser known players to capture an average fan's attention.  For example, Czech Republic native Jakub Hajtmar was given 85 at-bats with the Gulf Coast League Twins, twenty of which resulted in strikeouts.  Stohs gave him precisely 38 words but the last six might be the most telling: "In October, the Twins released Hajtmar."  Blink and you would have missed the Hajtmar Experience.  On the other hand, the Twins also have two left-handed pitchers in the lower ranks, both of the last name Lobanov, both hailing from Moscow and both with a good likelihood of coming back in 2009.  This begats more questions.  Such as just exactly how much are the Twins budgeting on scouting Eastern Europe?  Can a former Communist really throw a curveball? 

 

Similar to his website that avoids overly negative reports, the Handbook too veers away from highlighting obvious transgressions in a blunt manner.  Stohs has a knack of isolating any potential upside.  Whereas a standard write up from Baseball Prospectus might blatantly state that a former first round draft pick Matt Moses should have “failure” tattooed on his forehead, Stohs provides evidence that there were some flickers progress prior to drawing the conclusion that there is zero chance of seeing Moses in the Metrodome besides as a paying customer.  Although some experts have begun to question centerfield prospect Joe Benson’s status, Stohs peppers his analysis with silver-lined words, noting that Benson is still young for the Midwest League dispite his disappointing season and should expect to rebound in the Florida State League. 

  

Stohs has numerous invaluable sources in a myraid of levels throughout the organization and uses them to help lend credence to his analysis.  One source told him that Ben Revere resembled Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim’s Howie Kendrick - a glowing review in any language.   Likewise, emerging talent Mike McCardell, a right-handed pitcher at Beloit, was given a rave review by a scout from another organization, suggesting that McCardell has enough stuff and "moxie" to become a major league starter.  It is the addition of these nuggets packed within the write-ups that help mentally project the raw statistics. 

 

An fan avid of ranking prospects, Stohs adds the rankings from other notable bloggers like Twinkie Town's Roger Dehring, Taylor's Twins Talk's Josh Taylor and Josh's Thought's Josh Johnson among others.  This bonus feature provides a comparison from across the Twins community, a sort of wisdom-of-the-crowd approach to the top prospects.  Naturally, the Top 40 from SethSpeaks.net is included though Stohs provides Sleeper Watch and a brief description to a handful of players that didn't perform well enough to crack the Top 40 but have the tools to possibly contribute at the Major League level.

 

There is room for improvement as the Handbook looks towards its second edition in 2010, such as supply more league-oriented context (what do the numbers mean in comparison to the league average?) and projections (provide a specific ETA, if any?), but the initial offering to what should be an annual update is strong.  In all, this is an very useful collection of analysis that should adorn any Twins fan coffee table or desktop for quick reference on anyone in the system. 

 

 

For further information on how to order or purchase a copy of the Seth Speak's Twins Prospect Handbook (2009), please visit sethspeaks.net.

Odds, Ends (11.17.08)

• In what was the worst kept secret in baseball, the Twins officially announced that the team and manager Ron Gardenhire have agreed on a two-year extension.  Though the announcement might be meet with ire in certain circles, Gardenhire has been one of the winningest managers in baseball since assuming the helm of the Twins.  His .543 winning percentage ranks 23rd all-time among managers and that is currently third among active managers - trailing just the Angels' Mike Scioscia (22nd .551) and the Braves' Bobby Cox (17th, .557).  According to Cot's Contracts, Cox, the long time Braves' manager, is on a one-year contract for $3 million while Scioscia is under contract through 2010 (with an option for 2011) worth $1.75 million a year.  Gardenhire's prior contract was worth $2.5 million for two years ($1.25 per), so the current contract is believed to be similar to Scioscia's annual compensation. 

 

• In the wake of Pat Neshek's revelation that he will indeed undergo Tommy John surgery, missing the entirety of the 2009 schedule, it propels the necessity of acquiring a reliever pitcher that much further up the Twins' needs list.  This, of course, is easier said than done.  In 2008, the Twins had used 26% of their payroll to supply their bullpen.  In order to maintain a budget that is within reason, the Twins must not participate in inflated contracts to mediocre relievers in a time of desperation.  It is forgone conclusion that Dennys Reyes' spot in the bullpen will be accommodated by Craig Breslow and Jose Mijares leaving Matt Guerrier and Jesse Crain to assume the role of right-handed setup men in the 6th and 7th innings.  The bridge between those pitchers and Joe Nathan (in his second year of a contract with a AAV of $11.25 million) is undefined.  Rumor-mongering websites suggest that the Twins would target Juan Cruz, a 30 year old right handed reliever with the Diamondbacks who struck out 71 in his 51 innings of work last year.  While a strikeout oriented set-up man would bode well for the Twins, Cruz is a Type A free agent coming at the expense of not only a large three-plus year contract but also two draft picks.     

 

• The Yankees and White Sox completed a five-player deal that sends Nick Swisher to the Bronx.  Swisher, despite his unmitigated swagger, never fit in to Chicago's lineup very well.  He is not a centerfielder while Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye have him blocked at first base and right field, two positions he is more apt to handling.  The White Sox organization also cited his .219 batting average as reason that he was not suitable for the team.  Whether or not the front office actually believes this to be the explanation for shopping Swish, it should be noted that Swisher had an extremely suppressed batting average on balls in play (.266) in comparison to the rest of the league (.302).  His walk rate was also down from his past two seasons, sinking his on-base percentage, but for the most part his BB-to-K was consistent with the past two seasons as well.  It just appears that bad luck caught up to him.  Expect that Swisher's 2009 season resembles 2007 rather than his 2008 numbers. 

 

• The White Sox landed Wilson Betemit, Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez for Swisher and Kanekoa Texieria.  Betemit has never had a full-time role to truly define if he is a wash as a prospect.  His tenure with the Yankees, Betemit played all four infield positions, but mostly handled first base.  The left-handed Betemit has hit the righties well (.799 career OPS) but has been stymied by his counterparts (.636 career OPS).  Betemit will probably be asked to man third (along with Josh Fields) and, at times, first to reprieve Konerko from some right handed pitchers.  General Manager Kenny Williams told the Chicago Tribune that he believes that Betemit will perform better after he adjusts to his prescription goggles.  More likely, Betemit will assume the Juan Uribe role of playing whenever an injury arises.  Marquez was a name bandied about during the Santana negotiations last offseason.  After a strong showing in AA in 2007, Marquez was sidelined for a significant portion of the 2008 season.  He was rumored to be hitting the low-90s with a sinking fastball that was inducing groundballs (47% in AAA).  After a half-season or full-season of adjustments in AAA in 2009, Marquez should be a good replacement for Javier Vazquez in the rotation as Gavin Floyd and John Danks accept their rightful place as number one and two starters for the Sox. 

 

• Phil Rogers reports that the Royals have hired Mike Arbuckle, an advanced scout for Philadelphia, to fill the role of assistant GM.  When the team passed Arbuckle over for Ruben Amaro Jr when Pat Gillick stepped down, Arbuckle accepted the offer to be Dayton Moore's number two man.  During the Phillies World Series run Arbuckle did an interview with a Philadelphia daily in which he recollected his time as one of the advanced scouts for the Braves during the 1991 World Series.  What information did he provide?  He told the Braves to run on then-Twins catcher Brian Harper.  The offensive-minded catcher (who batted .311 in 1991), only threw out 28-of-126 base stealers that year (22% caught stealing rate).  In legendary Game Six, with the score knotted at three, Rick Aguilera was starting his second consecutive inning in the top of the 11th.  The Braves' Sid Bream led off with a single and Bobby Cox sent Keith Mitchell into pinch run for the first baseman.  During the regular season in 48 games, Mitchell had successfully stolen three bases in four attempts.  Based upon Arbuckle's report, Cox put Mitchell in motion in hopes of gaining scoring position in the pivotal game.  Harper's throw to second baseman Chuck Knoblauch cut Mitchell down for the inning's first out and Aguilera retired Brian Hunter and Greg Olson in order.  In the bottom of the inning, Kirby Puckett would launch his iconic game-winning home run. 

 

• The Tigers are targeting Trevor Hoffman, according to the Detroit Free Press's Jon Paul Morosi.  The 41 year old Hoffman would supplant the incumbent Todd Jones of equal age who decided to retire following an injury plagued 2008 season.  The Tigers are searching for a interim closer that would sign a one-year contract as the asking price of free agent closers Francisco Rodriguez, Brian Fuentes and Kerry Wood have grown by astronomical proportions.  A collegue of Morosi at the Free Press, Jamie Samualson, posted a piece suggesting that one of the reasons to avoid signing Hoffman was his decrease in innings pitching.   While there are plenty of reasons to not sign the landmine of a free agent in Hoffman, the decrease in innings pitch is probably the last.  After all, the Padres won just 63 games in 2008 limiting the number of save opportunities available to deploy a closer.  Hoffman's velocity has leveled out at 86-mph on his fastball, but his devastating changeup still possesses enough of a difference (74 mph) to retire the majority of batters faced.  More importantly, his ability to get left-handed batters out has been more pronounced in the past two seasons.  In 2007, lefties held a .799 OPS versus the right-handed .492 OPS.  This past year Hoffman held righties to a .466 OPS while the lefties increased their output to an .873 OPS.  If the Tigers indeed do sign Hoffman, expect Mauer, Morneau and Kubel to make closing games against the Twins a hair raising experience for Tiger fans.  

 

• The Marlins are in an active makeover mode.  The South Florida franchise is attempting to improve on a 84-win season (+3 over their Pythagorean record) in a very tough NL East by A) selling off Mike Jacobs for Royals reliever Leo Nunez, then B) trading Scott Olson and Josh Willingham to the Nationals in exchange for a handful of players including utility infielder Emilio Bonifacio and finally C) trading Kevin Gregg to the Cubs for a highly touted relief prospect. 
• A) Unloading Jacobs is a smart move for a small budget team.  Jacobs has very good pull power but the Marlins have loads of lumbering power hitters that can't get on first base consistently.  In AA, the 24 year old Gaby Sanchez has pieced together a solid minor league pedigree.  Like Jacobs, Sanchez would be an inexpensive addition to the team.  Unlike Jacobs, Sanchez has found other ways to achieve first base besides simply clubbing the ball.  In 1,677 minor league plate appearances, Sanchez possesses a 205/200 BB/K ratio.  Nunez, meanwhile, provides the Marlins with an option in the bullpen with his mid-90s fastball (94.4).  In 2008, the Marlins milked a satisfactory performance out of the aging Joe Nelson but need to supplement the bullpen with something else. The former Royal improved on his control in 2008 by throwing in the zone 68.8% of the time on the first pitch.  This is more than a 10% improvement from his 2007 season. 
• B) Doing business with the Nationals organization is like bartering with Old Mother Hubbard for food: the cupboards are bare.  This trade then was focused on clearing room on both the roster and a potential raise to Olsen and Willingham.  Dave Cameron at Fangraphs.com (and USS Mariner) takes a good look at the trade assembled around the pair of Fish.  Most will view this as a steal for the Nationals as Olsen just accumulated 200+ innings in 2008 and the right-handed batting Willingham just posted an OPS of .835.  Those unfamilar with the left-handed Olsen should know that he has a history of run-ins with players and his own coaching staff - another edition to the all-head-case roster that Jim Bowden is trying to assemble in Washington along with Elijah Dukes and Lasting Milledge.  The Marlins do not have a current need for a second baseman in Bonifacio (unless they unload Dan Uggla) and his isn't really strong at either the plate nor the field.  The other two minor leaguers seem destined to do just that: be in the minor leagues.  Willingham was nearly 30 and is probably past whatever productive output he was going to provide a team. 
• C) Finally the Cubs grabbed the overvalued 30 year old closer in Kevin Gregg, who made $2.5 million in 2008, for minor league prospect Jose Ceda.  Chicago netted themselves the market inflated arbitration eligible Gregg, who experts believe will make more than $4 million in 2009 and whose K/BB ratio took an odd turn this past season.  In 2007 Gregg managed to compile a 87/40 K/BB ratio.  This past year, Gregg had a 58/37 K/BB ratio.  Want another oddity?  His groundball rate swelled from 29% in '07 to 45% in '08.  This probably has more to do with his employment of the split-finger fastball but it would look as though he is pitching to contact - a recipe for disaster for closers (especially in the confinements of Wrigley).  If the Cubs are serious about implementing Gregg as a closer (as opposed to using Carlos Marmol), the results will be like that of Joe Borowski, another closer who pitched to contact after his fastball started to decline.  Ceda, meanwhile, resembles a relief prospect that will help in the Marlins bullpen as soon as next year.  Splitting time between A+/AA last year, Ceda threw 84.2 innings with a solid 95/42 K/BB ratio and allowed just two home runs.  This will be a regrettable trade for the North Siders. 

Is India the Next MLB Market?

You know that cliched bit in movies like the Mighty Ducks (or the reverse of that concept in the movie The Cutting Edge) where the coach concocts a crazy scheme in which two figure skates are converted to hockey players because, you know, they can skate?  And since they can skate their skills must be transferable to hockey (or in the case of The Cutting Edge visa versa)?  Well, Jeff Bernstein, Barry Bonds's marketing agent, is attempting to do the same thing only with cricket players from India. 

 

Makes perfect sense, right?  Their country is known for providing inexpensive labor to Steve Jobs's organization, why not Billy Beane's?  Hell, isn't the entire country of India viewed to the Western world as one big market inefficiency? 

 

Bernstein's endeavor was a contest dubbed "The Million Dollar Arm" which had local boys trying to throw as hard as they can, for as many strikes as they can.  The winner was Rinku Singh, a 19-year-old right-hander who threw consistently at 87-mph, and was awarded $100,000.  The runner up, Dinesh Patel, actually threw harder but had more difficulty with accuracy.

 

 

Major League scout Ray Poitevint was then brought over to assess the top talents.  "I certainly had my doubts,"said Poitevint, "I took a 21-hour flight to see every pitcher who could throw over 80 mph. They had such funny motions, the way they ran to the mound and jumped, but I couldn't believe how hard they'd throw.  You saw that raw ability, and you wondered if that could be molded. I don't wonder anymore."

 

Poitevint and Bernstein identified Singh and 19-year-old Patel, a left-hander, to fly to America to workout with current University of Southern California baseball coach and former Rangers pitching coach, Tom House, in the efforts to harness their extremely raw talent.  It sounds as if Singh as the more prototypical pitcher frame, listed as 6-2 and 195 pounds, while Patel is more of your Tim Hudson type at 5-11, 185 pounds.  During the initial workouts in SoCal, they were both clocked at 85+, reaching 90 on occasion.  

 

 

"If you go back 25-30 years, tell me how many Dominicans were playing and being scouted," Poitevint said. "There are a lot of athletes in India, athletes that are equal to or better than the ones that Dominicans had 25 years ago. This is not a publicity stunt. When you're scouting you need to take all kinds of shots and use your imagination. And then maybe ... three, four, five years later you see a guy who reminds you of someone with whom you've had success in the past. We're in the business of trying to develop baseball players and eventually if it works, we'll be signing someone from India."

 

Former Twins pitcher Casey Daigle (also the lessor half of the Daigle-Jenny Finch marriage) took the opportunity to run through workouts with the pair while training with House this offseason. 

"These guys are wonderful to be around," says Casey Daigle, "It's fun because they're like sponges. A few months ago, they didn't even know what a baseball was. What's great about them is that they are so determined to pitch in pro ball, and when you're around them, you can't help but root for them."
 

Following there brief introduction to pitching fundamentals state-side, Super-agent Jeff Borris enlisted several GMs - the majority of whom were in California for the annual General Managers' meeting - to witness the duo firsthand. 

 

Borris arranged for a Steve Nebraska-like work out, undoubtedly hoping to secure what could be lucrative contracts in the future.  Cleveland Indians' general manager Mark Shapiro may have indicated how much interest they have in their pair of hurlers from subcontinent Asia.  The Indians sent their Player Personnel Director to scout the, ahem, Indians.  "It's not like you're going to send all of your scouts over there to watch, but you never want to be left out, either. You never know what will happen. It's a country that's been unexplored."  Shapiro commented.

 

During the audition, both pitchers velocity were significantly lower than the reports from the USC facility, both cited the mound as reasons for the discrepancy - .  Borris, who is representing them along with Bernstein after watching their USC workouts, immediately told the press following the Tempe audition that he expects "multiple" offers from Major League teams, according to the Canadian Press.  Do the baseball minds feel the same as Borris?

 

In the video located on USA Today's website, House, who also co-wrote one of the seminal books on baseball along with statistician Craig Wright titled 'The Diamond Appraised', indicated that the interest in these players among Major League organization will be limited.  Candidly, House noted that the ones that will show interest are the ones that have very solid player development programs, ones that could appropriately train someone with little technical skill. 

 

Scouts who attended the Tempe, AZ-based showcasing also echoed the same sentiment as House.  Ted Heid, the Mariners special international project coordinator, told the Arizona Republic that "You can't really make a judgment based on this. There's an awful lot of players further along.  There would need to be an organization to continue the experiment."  Likewise, Ron Schueler, a San Francisco Giant senior scout, said "I didn't know what to expect. You've got two athletes who had never picked up a baseball before. Obviously, they're very crude. The fact that the one kid touched 90, that's stuff to work with.  Their country should be proud of them."

The question is whether this is a historic breakthrough, highlighting yet another geographic region of the world that has not been invaded by scouting tracks or just a novelty ploy by two high-priced agents?  Bernstein has stated that he is organizing another Million Dollar Arm contest in the near future in the hopes of extracting more arms from the nation of India.  Patel and Singh have proven that the raw talent is there.  Now a club has to make the investment in harnessing these abilities.